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Is Sterling set to fall further against the Euro following the Brexit? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchnage rates have once again come under pressure with the release of the UK’s latest Purchasing Manager’s Index.

The data release from yesterday morning showed a fall in economic activity to 47.7 which is the lowest figure since April 2009. Anything blow 50 represents contraction and with the data covering the post-Brexit period then could this be a sign of things to come. Sterling fell by over 1% against the Euro during Friday.

Recent economic data has been relatively strong for the UK including that of UK unemployment data which was the best for over 10 years. However, the economic data including the Brexit period will come later and I think this could show some real concerns for the British economy.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has spoken out a number of times in the run up to Brexit and also after the announcement and has signalled that the central bank will change monetary policy if necessary in order to shore up the economy.

Last month’s absence of an interest rate cut was more than likely due to the change in Prime Minister only a day before the result so when the meeting takes place of 4th August I would not be surprised to see either an interest rate cut or further Quantitative Easing both of which are likely to negatively effect the Pound if they are introduced.

On Wednesday the UK releases GDP data and this could be a pivotal point for Sterling Euro exchange rates going forward as if the data comes out lower than expected I think we could see some problems for the Pound going forward.

One possible piece of good news for Sterling is that the European banking stress tests are due next Friday night 29th July.

This includes 51 of Europe’s largest banks by assets including British banks but the real concern is that of the Italian banking sector.

They currently owe EUR550bn of which almost half of that is due to French banks so if the announcement supports this view then we could see some huge volatility for GBPEUR rates towards the end of next week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

GBP/EUR could sway from 1.20 today, with a downward move most likely (Joseph Wright)

Today will be the first time UK specific economic news will be released showing the effects of the UK’s ‘Brexit’, so later today there’s a chance that the GBP/EUR pair will be trading within a new range away from the 1.20 mark the pair have traded at for most of the week.

It will be PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data that will be released at 9.30am this morning. PMI stands for Purchasing Managers Index and the figures will provide us with an idea of business conditions within the UK for the month of July in terms of output, new orders, employment levels for the sector, sales and company forecasts.

50 is a key benchmark for the figures as anything above demonstrates growth whereas numbers below indicate a contraction. The figures are expected to show a decline so should they beat expectations there could be a spike upward for the Pound, but I think there is more downside potential considering the negative effects the ‘Brexit’ appears to be having, and I’m expecting some negative figures to be released.

GBP/EUR are still just 5 cents from the 10 year average of 1.25 so those looking to sell their Pounds and purchase Euros may wish to consider making that transfer sooner as opposed to later as over time there is a chance the Pound could fall closer to parity, especially if predictions by the likes of HSBC and Lloyds prior to the EU Referendum come to fruition.

If you are planning a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Euro remains stable as Draghi throws in no surprises GBP/EUR clinging to 1.20 and not leaving (Daniel Wright)

Another day with very little to report in terms of movements for the Euro, even with one of the largest data releases of the month for the Euro. Today we had the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference and no major surprises came from either.

The Euro did gain strength as Mario Draghi bought a little confidence to the Euro whilst being fairly positive in how the European recovery was progressing.

This has calmed the markets a little as concerns remain rife about Italian banks and other matters however we may be in for an interesting few weeks ahead, especially next Friday night as we have the results of the latest banking stress tests throughout Europe. What is most interesting about this is that the results are not being released until after trading hours on Friday night.

Releases that are scheduled to come out after hours are usually expected to cause a lot of volatility so something tells me that we may be expecting some bad news for a lot of the banks which may lead to a drop in the value of the Euro once the markets open up again on Sunday evening.

This sort of market is extremely hard to predict and moves rapidly so if you are in the position where you may need to carry out a currency exchange then it is key that you speak with a proactive broker and also get as much information that you can gather. We welcome new enquiries and have won awards for both our market information, customer service and exchange rates. This shows that we are not only proactive, but we can offer you lots of information along with saving you money over your current provider. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to speak with you personally to see how I may be able to assist you.

GBPEUR rates climb on Unemplyment

Yesterday the markets saw a push up to higher levels for the GBPEUR pairing. This was following a better than expected figure from the UK with regards to unemployment. These fell again to a new record low suggesting that the UK is not feeling the effects of the referendum. On the news the Pound climbed against most currencies including the single currency giving clients the opportunity to trade over 1.20.

This however was short lived and we find ourselves back under 1.20 today.  What is worth very much noting is that the data release yesterday was for June, yes there was a week in the month following the vote by the UK people to leave the EU but I don’t think the full picture has been given.  Next month as we go through August data for July will be published and probably a much fairer picture will be given. With regards to unemployment most firms put a recruitment freeze into place following the result so these are actually expected to show a fall.

Actually most economic data releases next month are expected to mirror that tone and for a fall to be shown. The downside is certainty bigger than that of the upside, meaning a large fall is more likely or a small climb.  On top of that we have the latest update from the Bank of England which could confirm the cut in interest rates, so another reason for the Pound to fall. Longer term there is likely to be a fall further in the GBPEUR pairing.

Shorter term we look at the European Central Bank this afternoon and their release. This is the first following the UK result and is expected to be noted, along with the concerns building about Greece and Italy which has hit major media outlets recently. Meaning as a result if you have Euros to buy in the near future, levels this afternoon may indeed be the highest we see.

For more information or to take advantage of these levels, please feel free to get in contact. Email myself STEVE EAKINS at hse@currencies.co.uk for a personal response. I have been in the market helping clients for nearly a decade so I am rather comfortable I will be able to help.

Will the UK cut interest rates after all? (Dayle Littlejohn)

In recent weeks there has been major hype that the UK could cut interest rates within the next couple of months. Members of the Monetary Policy Committee and the Governor Mark Carney have eluded to easing monetary policy (in other words cutting interest rates).

However within the last 48 hours Consumer Price Index also known as inflation, increased to 0.5% from 0.4% and unemployment figures fell to 4.9% from 5%. Its key to note the two data releases are for May therefore pre-referendum result. Nevertheless this could halt the Bank of England’s plan to cut rates on the 4th August and therefore the pound wouldn’t fall as I predicted in a previous post.

Tomorrow the EU are set to release their latest interest rate decision. Interest rates at the moment sit at 0% and I don’t believe the ECB will want to cut any further as negative interest rates can be a real problem for the economy. The decision itself I believe will be a non event however when President Mario Draghi addresses the public shortly after he should give further insight to monetary policy. Brexit should be a key talking point and if he states further Q.E is on the horizon expect the euro to weaken.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade GBPEUR / EURGBP at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend sending an email with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands!

I look forward to speaking with you Thursday morning.

 

GBP EUR Volatile on European Meetings Today (James Lovick)

Today is extremely important for both sterling exchange rates and Euro exchange rates as we go return to the political arena with a meeting in Berlin with British Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angel Merkel followed by another meeting tomorrow in France with French President  Francois Hollande.

These meetings are of paramount importance as they will effectively open the dialogue at a very early stage as to how Britain will withdraw from the EU. A positive and upbeat tone from Europe should be seen as good for the pound which in my view is where this should be heading now that the shock of Brexit has passed.

The issues for the pound at present surround Brexit and also the action that will be taken from the Bank of England to restore confidence to the markets. Last week the pound saw an excellent rally after the appointment of Theresa May as Prime Minister but also due to the lack of action from the Bank of England – The markets had been expecting an interest rate cut which did not materialise.

Now the focus looks to the next meeting 4th August which is fast approaching. Considering the comment from Chancellor of The Exchequer Philip Hammond yesterday that he acknowledged a monetary policy “package” would be forthcoming from the Bank of England, it would suggest August looks like the time for action.

This is likely to be sterling negative and already the markets are drifting lower in anticipation. This date in particular carries the opportunity to see some very sizeable market movement like we have seen in recent week so anyone with a currency requirement either buying Euros or selling Euros would be wise to get in touch to discuss how it will impact on your requirement.

If you find this post useful and you have a currency requirement either now or in the future then it is well worth you getting in contact with me (James Lovick) personally. I work for a brokerage that has won numerous awards both for our rates and customer service and I would be quite surprised if I could not better the rates you can achieve with your current choice of provider.

It only takes a moment to get in touch and you may save thousands of Pounds so feel free to email me (James Lovick) on jll@currencies.co.uk with a description of your requirement and a contact number and I will contact you as soon as I can.

Will the European Central Bank change monetary policy this week? (Tom Holian)

UK inflation data came in better than expected this morning at 0.5% year on on year compared to the expectation of 0.4%. However, this has done little to strengthen the Pound vs the Euro.

Although the figures were strong it has become fairly likely that the Bank of England will look at either cutting interest rates or increasing Quantitative Easing at next month’s meeting due to take place on 4th August.

Politically the UK has now become a little more certain with new Prime Minister Theresa May coming in last Wednesday.

This has helped the Pound to recover against the Euro and other major currencies but with the economic concerns still weighing heavily on the Pound since the Brexit vote it is difficult to see too much further strength for the Pound.

Tomorrow morning the UK announces both unemployment data as well as the Claimant count for the UK and any signs of growth could see Sterling experience some small gains but I think this will be fairly limited.

Arguably the most pivotal point of the week will come on Thursday afternoon when the European Central Bank meets to decides their own monetary policy.

The future risks that the Eurozone are facing is that of the Greek and Italian banking sector, both of which appear to be in trouble and with the stress tests taking place at the end of this month on July 29th we could see the single currency struggle once the results are announced.

If you’re thinking of selling Euros or buying Euros and are worried about the next few weeks then it may be worth while considering buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

 

Where next for GBP/EUR? (Daniel Charles Johnson)

With Theresa May’s new cabinet in place I think we will see a gradual rally for Sterling. There are however two events which could hold back the Pound. First up, the Bank of England’s (BOE) next interest rate decision on 4th August. There was the high possibility of an interest cut at the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting this month but rates were held. Usually if an economic data release goes a against the general consensus you will see a big swing in currency values. GBP/EUR however only experience slight movement, very briefly moving to 1.21 before settling at around 1.20. Only a cent move from the pre-interest interbank level of 1.19. I think this can be put down to there being a firm chance of cut in August. It is common knowledge therefore I would not expect Sterling to fall considerably when a cut does occur.

The second event which could cause Sterling weakness is the implementation of article 50. Article 50 essentially engages the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, this will almost certainly weaken the Pound. I do not expect this to occur until at the earliest Q1 2017.

If you have a currency requirement it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is key during such a volatile  times, If you have a veteran broker on board he can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to help with your trade I will be happy to help. Let me know the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Selling Euro rates beginning to deteriorate (Joshua Privett)

As markets opened to begin the week the clear winner was the Pound, with buying Euro rates improving by almost a full cent despite little economic data being released to justify these losses for Euro sellers.

The momentum was clearly with the Pound since the beginning of last week, with GBP/EUR gaining close to 4% compared to the absolute lows on Monday morning. The new Prime Minister, a quickly formed government, and official delay in enacting Article 50 until at least 2017 have all contributed to some increased stability for the Pound.

Unfortunately for Euro sellers, but to the benefit of Euro buyers, events in the Eurozone are exaggerating this situation and making the Euro a cheaper prospect. Most will have already seen the headlines that Italian Banks are in the process of negotiating a new bailout given that the true extent of their debt crisis has come to light.

Furthermore, with the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi set to speak on Thursday regarding future financial policy following the announcement of the Brexit vote, we may see more exaggerated falls in Euro value soon.

This will be his first opportunity to address markets in an official capacity since the result of the Referendum itself. Without much chance of positive news for the Eurozone off the back of his remarks, and with the degree of movement expected from such an event, Thursday should be seen as a red flag for anyone considering buying Sterling with their Euros.

Anyone with a selling Euro requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximize your Sterling return. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current selling levels can even be fixed in place for anyone who does not have access to their Euros presently.

Euro buyers can also get in contact. If you have an upcoming requirement and wish to make the most of any positive movements which occur in the meantime, you can also contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to me to discuss how to ensure any advantageous spikes are seized immediately.

UK Trade Deal Announcements Create Confidence

Over the weekend several nations have declared interests in setting up free trade deals with the UK. Australia’s Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has made it clear that as soon as the UK is free from the EU, there is a full agreement in place. The UK is unable to sign anything currently as its still part of the EU, but all the planning work can take place.

Sterling has gained nearly a cent this morning in the first few hours of trading, this in my opinion will continue to improve as the UK invokes more confidence. If major trading nations such as China and India can organise agreements with the UK then investors will have to believe Sterling is in a better position than the Euro, essentially causing the rate to jump.

The main fear for Sterling is in August if the Bank of England cut the interest rate level, currently low inflation is being improved due to a weak currency. However Governor Mark Carney needs to decide if the economy will need more cash injection. Lowering interest rates makes it cheaper to borrow money and if there is further quantitative easing that will increase the amount of cash available to banks. The Brexit vote has essentially damaged business confidence in the UK and companies will be wary of massive investments during times of uncertainty.

This morning Japanese company Softbank announced their intention to purchase ARM holdings for £24bn. ARM build the micro chips that are used in Apple’s Iphone and Samsung’s mobiles. The company expect to double their current 3000 workforce in the UK in the next 5 years. Acquisitions into the UK during this volatile time could really help markets to settle.

As a trader in a currency brokerage I am able to help you achieve the best rates possible, whilst also assisting with the timing of a transaction to make sure you get the most for your money. If you do have a currency requirements please feel free to send me Ben Fletcher an email at brf@currencies.co.uk.

GBPEUR weekly round up and the week ahead (Dayle Littlejohn)

 

When the Bank of England are making headline news ahead of celebrity gossip or what’s happening in the football transfer window it just shows last weeks interest rate decision was an important one.

Two weeks ago Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, insisted that the BoE had a plan in regards to leaving the EU and that included potentially cutting interest rates and adding additional stimulus in the form of quantitative easing into the UK economy.

Last Thursday only 1 member of the Monetary Policy Committee thought it was in the best interest for the UK to make the cut. Personally if Theresa May wasn’t appointed as Prime Minister this week I believe interest rates would have been cut. Now the UK have a PM and the uncertainty has been removed it seems the BoE have an additional window to sit back and to see what a ‘Brexit’ really means for the UK economy.

However the Bank of England did state and I quote from the minutes ‘most members of the committee expected monetary policy to be loosened in August’. Therefore it seems we could see another dip in the pounds value next month providing another attractive window for euro sellers.

Looking ahead the UK have their latest inflation numbers Tuesday morning and a slight rise is expected. In certain times when inflation rises this is when Banks normally start to think about increasing interest rate however with the Article50 decision looming, this certainly will not be the case. However we could potentially see a spike for the pound.

Thursday the Eurozone will release their latest interest rate decision. No change is expected therefore the decision itself should be a non event. However when President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi addresses the public shortly after, I believe he will address the impact of the ‘Brexit’ on the Eurozone. No doubt he will try to stay bullish in his comments however the comments themselves will devalue the euro.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade GBPEUR / EURGBP at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend sending an email with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the reference Quote17thJuly and the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands!

I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.

 

 

When will the Bank of England cut interest rates and the impact on Sterling vs the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have had a generally positive week following the announcement of new Prime Minister Theresa May.

The new PM has surrounded herself with a mix of both Remain and Leave supporters but the majority of the new cabinet are also very experienced.

When the official announcement was made Sterling climbed quickly against the Euro as it shows a bit more political certainty and this helped to lift investor confidence in Pound Sterling exchange rates.

The gains continued for Sterling on Thursday with the Bank of England surprising the majority with an 8-1 vote in favour of keeping interest rates on hold at 0.5%. Interest rates have remained the same since 2009 although since then a total of £375bn has been introduced in the form of Quantitative Easing.

In many of my recent articles I personally expected rates to be kept on hold this month as with a new leader coming in just a day before the vote it would have been a little irresponsible in my opinion for the Bank of England to change policy so soon.

However, I do expect some form of easing to take place next month as the UK has clearly shown signs of slowing down in the run up to the Brexit vote as foreign investment was clearly reduced during this period.

On Tuesday the UK release the latest set of inflation data in the form of the the Consumer Price Index. This measures inflation and the expectation is for 0.4% year on year. Therefore, if we see any signs of a reduction in this estimate this could provide further support for monetary easing or even an interest rate cut at next month’s meeting due to take place on 4th August.

If you need to buy or sell Euros and you’re worried about the impact of a change in monetary policy by the Bank of England then you may wish to buy a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

I look forward to hearing from you.