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Is the Euro going to strengthen further against Sterling? (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have fallen from their recent 2 month high after the Eurozone recently published some very strong and better than expected GDP figures. The data showed growth of 0.6% for the first quarter of 2016 compared to the estimate of 0.4%.

Eurozone manufacturing data also came out strong on Monday and with yesterday’s Producer Price Index also showing signs of improvement this has led to further Euro strength.

Indeed, UK manufacturing data showed a fall for the first time in 3 years with the survey revealing a figure of 49.2 falling from March’s figure of 50.7. Anything below 50 represents contraction and so another reason for Sterling’s fall against the Euro yesterday.

The biggest event of the week concerning GBPEUR exchange rates could be Friday when the European Commission announce their latest set of Economic Growth Forecasts.

With recent data having shown signs of improvement in the Eurozone if we see a rise in the forecast then we could see even further Euro strength at the end of the week. Good news for Euro sellers.

With just less than 2 months to go before the UK decides whether or not to stay in the European Union on 23rd June the currency markets are likely to remain extremely unpredictable and many clients are opting for forward contracts at the moment in order to remove the uncertainty of what may happen with exchange rates.

A forward contract allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for  a small deposit and will guarantee you a fixed price and a budget. This can be extremely useful when buying a property in Europe which may involved stage payments.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Euro makes gains against most majors in trading today (Daniel Wright)

Euro exchange rates have been fairly positive across the board today, most notably with rises against the Antipodean currencies. Euro exchange rates made gains of over 2% against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

Much of this may be down to the surprise cut in exchange rates over in Australia which has also hit the Australian Dollar across the board.

Tomorrow brings a flurry of service, manufacturing and construction data for most of the Eurozone so expect a busy morning from 06:45am until 10:00am.

personally I feel the Euro is still slightly over valued and that the major problems within the Eurozone will start to show major cracks again soon, but that data may be held back until after the EU referendum in the U.K.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Euro for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

Are Sterling Euro exchange rates going to suffer in May? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates made positive gains for most of April but finished the final day in a negative direction following much better than expected Eurozone GDP data.

With the economic data confirming growth for the Eurozone at 0.6% compared to the expectation of 0.4% this helped to strengthen the Euro vs the Pound.

This demonstrated that things might not be as bad in the Eurozone as previously thought and with just less than 2 months to go before the UK votes whether or not to stay in the European Union on 23rd June the currency markets are likely to be extremely uncertain during this period.

At the moment it appears likely that the Remain camp will win but currently the votes are too close to call.

On Wednesday the European Central Bank meets not to announce any change in policy but more likely to reveal expectations going forward.

Any positive comments from the central bank could see further gains for the single currency vs Sterling creating some excellent opportunities to sell Euros into Sterling.

The Euro has strengthened against the US Dollar to its best level since May 2015 which has also helped to support the single currency vs Sterling.

With the Brexit vote causing uncertainty in the next two months many clients are opting to secure currency on forward contracts which means you can buy your currency in advance for a small deposit.

The benefit means you know exactly how much it will cost you to buy a specific amount of currency and eliminates the risk of where markets may end up.

This is particularly useful if you’re in the process of buying a house in Europe.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Buying Euro exchange rates primed for a testing May (Joshua Privett)

Friday saw a tentative end to the week for buying Euro rates, where previously marginal falls had been matched with afternoon recoveries, but this time finally breaking through into a negative trend. GBP/EUR was on the verge of breaking through into 1.26 territory before being saved by the bell with the close of global trading at the weekend.

The key feature to end the week was a focus on growth.

The UK, for the first time in nearly three years, recorded growth figures lower than that of the Eurozone. Preliminary estimates for growth during the first quarter of 2016 found the UK to have slowed to 0.4%, whilst the Eurozone saw comfortable rise to 0.6%.

This then became the dominant narrative when discussing the value for the Pound, which steadily eclipsed the previously more positive tones following the recent gains for the Remain campaign off the back of Obama’s visit to the UK.

Personal political views aside, currency markets have shown overwhelmingly that they wish for the UK to remain in the EU, as investors are unwilling to pile capital into the UK without having a good idea about what it’s economic future may be. So without demand the Pound tumbles.

Frankly, the markets seemed to have overreacted to the positive effects of Obama’s intervention. The most recent poll data showing a 46% remain vote, and 42% to leave are still well within the margin of error and do not account for other polls showing a likely higher voter turnout for anyone inclined to leave the EU.

As a political argument, I fully expect buying Euro rates to become more expensive during May unless these poll numbers begin to reflect a commanding lead for a Remain vote. Companies will have to seriously have a look ahead at their financial exposure for June, and will not be inclined to leave a much of their significant capital in an incredibly volatile Pound.

The mass sell-offs of the Pound will see similar falls in GBP/EUR to February following the announcement of Boris Johnson joining the leave campaign.

Economically, the first two weeks of this month will see a host of economic data emerging for last month’s performance of the Eurozone and the UK. With the growth data emerging last week, should this data reflect a similar disparity between UK and EU performance, we will likely see further falls on buying Euro rates which continue from last week.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement should contact me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy allowing you to maximise your currency return.

Those with a short-term requirement can receive a free, no obligation and competitive quote for their transfer. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, so a short conversation could save you thousands.

Anyone who does not need Euros for a few months can also contact me to discuss the options open to you to manage your risk over the coming months on the currency markets. There are a number of tools available through a currency exchange specialist which will allow you to fix rates of exchange, and employ Stop Losses to avoid you buying currency below what your budget allows you to afford.

Those selling Euros can also contact me, and I will explain how to ride the expected movements in your favour to their peak within the time period you have to complete your transfer.

 

Has Sterling’s rally vs the Euro come to an abrupt end? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates hit close to a 2 month high earlier this week but ended Friday’s trading session moving in a downwards direction.

Positive economic data put paid to Sterling’s recent bout of good fortune when the Eurozone announced that GDP came out better than expected at 0.6% compared to the estimate of 0.4%

The data was also higher than the final quarter of 2015 and the good news carried on with the release of Eurozone unemployment figures coming in at 10.2%, which was the best data since 2011.

Eurozone inflation however was still worrying low but it appears as though the currency markets have overlooked this data set in favour of the positive GDP data.

The Euro is now sitting at its best level to buy US Dollars since May 2015 and this has helped to support the single currency vs the Pound.

Next week sees the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data and Services data on Wednesday and my expectation is that both these releases will be positive for the Euro providing some good opportunities to sell Euros into Sterling.

My reasoning is that with GDP coming out so strong compared to the expectation then these two announcements could see further gains for the single currency against the Pound.

With just less than 2 months to go before the UK votes in the EU referendum this is clearly going to cause further uncertainty for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates and this has already been apparent during the last month.

If you need to buy or sell Euros over the next 2 months and are worried what the future may hold with the EU referendum then you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

This eliminates the uncertainty and protects you from any adverse movements.

My overall prediction for next week is Euro strength vs the Pound.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Buying Euro rates tumble on final day before May (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR rates have been visibly jumpy and tentative over the past few business days as Sterling’s rally against the Euro was halted by poor growth figures for the UK economy released on Wednesday.

Marginal falls yesterday have been matched with trading activity so far today alongside a rise in employment and growth in the Eurozone. Growth in the first quarter actually outpaced the UK, with growth at 0.6% compared to 0.4% here.

The main reason for the recent rise for buying Euro rates between last Friday and Wednesday was the positive effect Barack Obama’s recent visit to the UK was said to have had on the Remain campaigns cause to keep the UK within the EU.

Markets reacted surprisingly positively to the news, even ahead of the release of polling data which showed Obama’s sometimes forceful words had generated a rally of support for the Britain Stronger in Europe motion.

Frankly, the most recent numbers of around 46% to remain, 42% to leave, and the rest undecided, are still well within the margin of error for how the vote in June will result.

It’s no secret that the consensus on the currency markets is to hope for a remain vote, as the financial world rarely enjoys changes to the status-quo. With alternative polls showing the voter turnout for the Leave campaign is expected to be around 75% compared to 65% for remain, come May markets will likely be beginning to move assets out of the UK to avoid any exposure to what is still an incredibly uncertain result.

Similar to February when Boris Johnson joined the leave campaign, the mass-sell offs of the Pound will likely see its value fall against its major competitors.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me before the long weekend on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

Whether your requirements are imminent or over the next few months, these current levels can be fixed in place to avoid your transfer becoming more expensive. Particularly since British based Euro buyers will not have access to the markets on Monday, the gamble to wait over the weekend is a higher risk than normal.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and Euro sellers can also get in touch should they wish. We can discuss how to ride the expected movements in your favour to their completion in the time period you have to complete your transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Could GBPEUR break 1.30 before the end of the week (Dayle Littlejohn)

Tomorrow the Eurozone are set to release their latest Consumer Price Index (inflation) numbers. The consensus is for a fall to -0.1% therefore the Eurozone will enter deflation.

In March President of the ECB Mario Draghi increased the money supply entering the European countries and also cut interest rates in a bid to improve worrying inflation levels.

If we see a fall to negative territory there is a chance GBPEUR exchange rates could break 1.30 for the first time in 3 months. However I believe this spike will be short lived as its only a matter of time until the ‘out’ campaign start to rally votes in regards to the EU referendum.

If you have euros to buy, a €200,000 purchase has become £4,800 cheaper in the last two weeks and I believe this spike is not going to last.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros this year (especially before June 23rd), the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.

 

When is the Best Time to Sell EUR? (Matthew Vassallo)

Any clients holding EUR should be keeping an extremely close eye on market developments, as the single currency has started to lose value over the past few days. This follows an extremely positive run for the EUR, which had gained over 15 cents against GBP at last week’s high since the turn of the year.

The reason we have seen the EUR weaken off against Sterling is likely due to the comments made by President Barack Obama over the weekend, which indicated Britain would be in a far worse position if we left the EU and ‘at the back of the line’ in terms of trade deals with the US. This immediately caused the EUR to weaken, as the comments are likely to sway a portion of voters, perhaps some of those who were still undecided.

This drop was compounded following yesterday’s better than expected UK GDP figures and GBP/EUR rates moved through 1.29, providing some much needed respite for the Pound. However, this spike was not sustainable and the EUR found support moving the pair back towards 1.2850. I still feel the Pound is likely to find like tough going over the coming weeks and I do not expect a move above 1.30 under current market conditions.

If I was holding EUR I would be looking to take advantage of the huge the improvement we’ve seen since the turn of the year and not gamble on what is still a fragile Eurozone economy. The Pound seems to be finding support around the current levels and a move back under 1.25 is now unlikely in my opinion.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency requirement, then please feel free to contact me to discuss the current market conditions and forecasts. We assist clients with not only the transfer of their funds at award winning rates of exchange but we will also help you time your exchange and maximise the market value. I can be reached on 0044 1494 787 478 and just ask one of my team for Matt. Alternatively, you can email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Best time to buy Euros with Pounds in 7 weeks!

If you need to buy Euros with pounds we currently have the best rates since the beginning of March on offer thanks to some uncertainty over Eurozone economic policy and a much stronger pound. After two months of the Leave camp appearing to have swung sentiment, the Remain camp is now firmly in the running with a raft of arguments to support their cause. This all goes to show how unpredictable the markets can be and how sensible it is to make plans in advance as things can change very quickly. It seemed only very recently that the rates were going to drop below 1.20 and now we are looking at a rise to 1.30!

Euro rates up to the Referendum 

Between now and June I think there could be some further big unexpected swings on sterling to euro exchange rates and at the very extreme would predict swings of between 1.20 and 1.35. This is taking into account the very worst and best expectations of sterling performance. Such big movements will have a big impact on financial markets and the amount of currency you receive. Whilst it might be tempting to look on this as a great opportunity and of course it is and could be, you should also look at the downside too. Assuming a Remain vote and hanging on for the rate to go above 1.31 for your European house purchase is great but if it is a Leave vote and rates drop to 1.15 will you be able to afford the house?

Two key orders in such a market are the Stop Loss order which guarantees you won’t get a worse rate if rates start to plummet. So for example you might set a Stop Loss at 1.22 buying Euros currently. A Limit is the other which guarantees you a higher price if rates rise above a certain level. So a popular GBPEUR Limit order to buy Euros is 1.30.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros at a better rate than is currently achievable you really should be plans on how you will achieve this. Understanding the market and all of your options in advance gives you the best possible chance to trade at a better level. If you wish to discuss your situation please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. There is no cost or charge for my services, any introductory information is provided completely free of charge and at no obligation so you have nothing to lose from getting in touch.

Euro rates after the Referendum 

Of course how Euro rates perform post the Referendum will come down to the outcome of the Referendum. Most assessments focus on sterling weakness on a Leave vote which might see GBPEUR slip to 1.20 and below. I wouldn’t rule out a continued slide on the pound with some forecasts predicting sub 1.20 even in the teens. A Remain vote should see the pound rise with GBPEUR above 1.30 with a possible move over the days and weeks to 1.40 not out of the question.

My experience on exchange rates tells me to expect and highlight the unexpected. It might be that the Euro is actually weakened from a Leave vote. The Euro has relied on lots of overseas investment in recent years which might easily be unwound as we have seen in recent years on the back of the Greek crisis. Could the result of a Leave vote trigger a constitutional crisis in the EU which would expose other wounds? The problems with Greece are far from resolved and it might be that a Leave vote is actually very damaging for the Eurozone and the Euro.

Conversely a Remain vote might not be all sunshine and smiles for the GBPEUR rate. The UK economy has been confirmed to be growing at a very slow pace this year because of the uncertainty over the Referendum. Businesses and private clients are refraining from big decisions such as hiring new workers and investing in their business or property until after the Referendum. This has dented economic activity and is putting further pressure on the economy. A Remain vote is also an implicit agreement to carry on with the (amended) EU relationship which may not be in the UK’s best interests. Perhaps the Leave camp are right and the EU is no longer fit for purpose and the UK being entwined will suffer longer term.

As you can see there are lots of ifs, buts and maybes. I can speak from experience looking after both private client and business transfers for the last 8 years that big events such as this move markets. The Scottish Referendum and the last two General Elections all saw big swings in the weeks leading up to the events. This Referendum is much more important and none of the predictions above could be completely ruled out.

For more information on how to protect yourself and plan a currency purchase in this clearly volatile period please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson is Associate Director at one of the UK’s leading foreign exchange brokers and offers a wealth of knowledge on the currency markets having worked as a currency broker for over 8 years – offering his expertise to both individual and corporate clients on a daily basis. Jonathan’s comments have recently featured in The Telegraph and he has also appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum.

 

EURO sellers unhappy – Will the good times return?

Euro exchange rates have somewhat collapse this week following the weekend and the visit from Barack Obama.  His outlandish stance on the Brexit and the impact on trade to the UK has significantly weakened the leave campaign resulting in some significant strength for the UK Pound.  Anyone with Euros to sell now have a difficult decision to make.  Within the last month they have lost over 4% and a majority of that was since Friday with a 2% loss.

Moving forward the focus is on tomorrow GDP figures. This is really the first release which the Brexit vote could show an impact on the commerce levels of the UK. Whether the concerns that the general population has about the future of the UK has been reflected into business.  This should be interesting reading.

If you have euros to buy this opportunity is seen as just that, something to take full advantage of. Euro sellers however if your finger nails will last may wish to wait for a better level however please make sure that your target level has been altered following the significant change in the range of the market.

To discuss any of these points above in more detail, target levels, ranges, GDP figures or indeed to get a live price please feel free to get in contact. Call or email myself, Steve Eakins, via hse@curerncies.co.uk for a personal response.

Happy trading.

GBPEUR breaks 1.29 (Dayle Littlejohn)

GBPEUR for the first time since the 12th of March 2016 has broken through 1.29. In the last 2 weeks GBPEUR has risen over 5 cents making a €200,000 purchase £6,000 cheaper.

If you are buying Euros before June 23rd I believe this spike should be taken advantage of, as I expect exchange rates will drop back  towards the lower 1.20s in the upcoming weeks.

The reason for the sterling gaining momentum has to be David Cameron has played his trump card in US President Barack Obama. The President has been rallying votes this weekend by stating the UK wont be able to negotiate a trade partnership with the us for 5-10 years therefore leaving the EU would isolate the UK.

The ‘out’ campaign have been very quiet since the campaigning begun 2 weeks ago and I expect its only a matter of time until they start to fight back. Consequently I expect rates to fall.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros this year (especially before June 23rd), the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.

EUR Rates Drop but is Recent GBP Strength Sustainable? (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR has lost ground against its GBP counterpart over the past few trading days, with GBP/EUR rates rising through 1.28 at today’s high. The EUR has continued to perform well, due as much to the current negativity surrounding the UK economy, as to any real investor confidence in the Eurozone but are we finally seeing the single currency hit its peak, or is the recent dip merely a minor speedbump?

Personally I feel that whilst the Pound will struggle to make any sustainable move through 1.30 under the current market conditions, we also have to take into consideration the many negatives still attached to the Eurozone. For example, Greece only recently had to sell off their largest port to China in order to raise funds to meet there extremely stringent repayment deadlines and whilst the story or Greece’s economic demise seems to have been swept under the carpet for the past six months, the problems have not disappeared and are surely going to raise their head once again in the not too distant future. There are ongoing concerns surrounding the current inflation levels and despite growth forecasts being raised are still relatively weak.

I get the sense that the current levels on GBP/EUR have factored in the possibility of the UK leaving the EU and whilst this scenario is unlikely in my opinion, it is certainly having an effect on investors risk appetite. I would not be gambling on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market place. With rate still sitting almost 15 cents higher than they were six months ago, EUR sellers should take advantage and sit back without the concern of where June’s referendum may take us.

Looking ahead and it is a quiet week for Eurozone data releases, so focus is likely to be on Thursday’s Industrial & Consumer Confidence figures. The key data is likely to be Wednesday’s UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which are expected to come in showing 0.4% growth for the quester. Any deviation from the expected result is likely to cause additional volatility on GBP/EUR exchange rates.

If you have an upcoming EUR or GBP currency requirement and would like to discuss the current market conditions and forecasts ahead of your exchange, or are interested in a comparable quote on the transfer, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk