Draghi’s press conference lends support to the Euro, an opportunity for Euro sellers? (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling had rallied up past 1.21 earlier this week but following the ECB interest rate decision to keep rates on hold and the subsequent post decision press conference, the Euro has rallied back towards 1.19 – showing how quickly levels can move. For me I believe this trend could be a real opportunity for Euro sellers as I personally believe longer term with the positive sentiment coming from the UK that we are likely to see a sustained period of GBP/EUR sitting above 1.20.
Looking into next week watch anyone looking at this pair should keep an eye on the following data should watch out for European industrial production figures Monday at 11:00 and importantly UK industrial production and manufacturing figures at 0.9:30 on Tuesday along with NIESR UK GDP estimates at 15:00. Heading towards the latter stages of the week and we have the ECB monthly report at 09:00 Thursday and to finish off the week employment data from the euro zone on Friday.
For me the major factor to keep an eye on will be Tuesdays manufacturing figures. Lately these have been positive and another good showing should set sterling on the path to have a strong week against the single currency.
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GBPEUR rates have started to wobble as concerns build about what will happen in the quarterly budget statement later today. This takes place just after 11 and will be keenly watched by investors and traders, what is mentioned will then be priced into the market rather quickly. I fully expect rates to move upwards of a cent today with both this large report and the European Central Bank interest rate decision this afternoon. The Europeans are unlikely to make any change to policy with it being so close to the festive period but I do think they will talk about the future changes and set expectations with changes to their overnight base rate.
I personally think that Pound buyers will be hurt today and the best prices will probably be in morning trading. If you are a EUR or USD buyer however and looking at moving this week, I think this afternoon will give you the best price.
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GBPEUR rates have pushed on again today with the potential for clients of getting the best price of the year. Today there are a few data releases due for the UK which could happily break the 1.20 level of resistance in the market at the moment. These include; the last day of the month meaning profit taking is a possibility which could help, with Thanks Giving in the US yesterday many brokers in the US would have extended their long weekends meaning trading levels are going to be lower; this helps as a smaller data release can have a larger impact as there is a smaller amount of resistance from brokers above the market, and data from Europe which is expected to be bad. This all points towards the potential for a busy day on the markets with opportunities for the quick movers.
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Following Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s comments this morning Sterling has shot up to hit 1.20+ during today’s trading session against the Euro. Mark Carney’s speech this morning was primarily focused on reducing the risk of a UK house price bubble by aimed to scale back mortgage loans.
The loans made available by the government will now be aimed at business lending instead.
This is seen as good news for the overall economy and means the UK housing market will hopefully settle down and not grow too quickly which is one of the main reasons why we saw such a crash a few years ago. The changes put in place this morning are aimed at putting money into the place where it is most needed which is providing funding for small businesses.
Confidence in France has fallen according to a European Commission survey out today. It showed French consumer confidence fell sharply this month as worries include expectations that the general economic situation in the country could get worse.
As the 2nd largest economy within the Eurozone any problems in France can be often reflected in the value of the Euro. Off the back of these two data sets Sterling Euro exchange rates are now a fraction off a 10 month high providing us with some excellent buying opportunities for buying Euros.
If you need to buy Euros soon then get in touch for a free quote. Working for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident we can offer you better exchange rates than using your bank.
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Euro weakness looks likely down the line, excellent rates selling Euros for Aussies and Dollars should be capitalised on
The Euro has been in and out of the headlines once again as various members of the ECB (European Central Bank) openly discuss the prospect of lowering further interest rates or even floating a negative interest rate to stimulate growth and lending in the Eurozone.
There is therefore a strong likelihood the Euro will weaken in the future so if you are selling Euros for the pound, USD or AUD now is probably a good time to move. If you ask me it has been too quiet in the Eurozone lately with there being a very high chance more problems are likely down the line.
On GBPEUR we are not quite at the best levels for selling euros for the pound but with the outlook not particularly positive for the Euro, if you have to sell euros for sterling moving sooner may be wisest to avoid disappointment.
The Australian central bank have said they may actively pursue a weaker AUD which could lead to better rates for the AUD but current levels are there or thereabouts the best we have had since the Summer. To break higher than the 1.50 we will need to something out of the ordinary and I think this spike is worth capitalising off if selling Euros since after such a strong move in one direction we are now bound to see some profit taking pull the market back.
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The Euro has weakened against both the pound and US Dollar today after French GDP showed an unexpected contraction. Times are looking bleak for France at the moment and the Government have a hard slog to get the economy moving. Germany posted better growth figures for the last year which probably stopped the Euro weakening to the 1.20 point against the pound that we witnessed last week. I personally feel this target level will be reached in the next few days.
It is clear to see that the recent interest rate cut in the Euro zone shows that the European Central Bank feel that going forward economic output for the region will be slow. The Euro has been weakening of late and if you have Euros to sell you could get your fingers burnt by waiting a month or two. if things continue to deteriorate in Euro and the UK economy continues to grow rates above 1.20 may be around the corner.
If you are looking at buying or selling the Euro I am a currency specialist who assists thousands of clients a year make savings on their currency transfers. I offer a very personal service to give you the information to help you decide when to do your currency exchange while also offering significant savings on the exchange over the high street banks.
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