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Eurozone Inflation could send GBPEUR Rates Higher (Tom Holian)

Today could be a big day for GBPEUR exchange rates with the release on inflation data due for the Eurozone this morning. With inflation having fallen previously to 0.4% we could see further Euro weakness if the data comes out lower.

The ECB cut interest rates in June to an historic low of 0.15% which led to investors selling Euros which created a 2 year high on GBPEUR rates. If the inflation data is low this could pile more pressure on the ECB to intervene next week with either a further interest rate cut which I think is unlikely or further Quantitative Easing in the form of LTROs.

In more simple terms QE involves printing money which in turn should increase inflation. This often causes the currency to weaken so we could see some very good buying opportunities to buy Euros with Sterling over the next few days if the inflation data is low.

GBPEUR rates are currently trading at levels of 1.26 on the mid-market which are the best levels in a couple of weeks.

Eurozone unemployment is also due this morning with the expectation of 11.5%. I think this will not cause too many surprises as the currency markets will focus mainly on the inflation data.

If you would like to be kept updated with exchange rates and would like a free quote to buy Euros or sell Euros then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

 

German Inflation Does Little To Ease Euro Worries (Colm Gilhooly)

German inflation today came in as expected at pretty disappointing levels.  Unemployment rates remained unchanged.  Usually German data would tend to be slightly better than the wider EU combined figures on average so it is a concern for tomorrow EU inflation release.  Low inflation has been one of the big concerns for the ECB so a poor showing tomorrow could heap pressure on the single currency in advance of next week’s ECB interest rate meeting.

If you are buying or selling Euros then be ready to move quickly tomorrow as I suspect there could be a lot of volatility on exchange rates.  If you would like help with a currency transfer, or want to find out more about our excellent exchange rates, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be more than happy to help.

GBPEUR inflation data this week

GBPEUR levels have remained flat this week in the build up to the new month. With it a new round of economic data will be released probably returning the market to a volatile trading sessions. It was over the weekend when we have the large movement on the market. This was following the new information published from the central banks either side of the channel at their most recent meeting. The Bank of England is now forecasted to not raise interest rates until next year, the European Central Bank has a lot left on its cards. As inflation continues to fall and member states continuing to battle between then on further austerity or spending cracks are beginning to form.  The French government was the last to bubble over this week when a new government was formed following top officials coming out against the leadership.  This all means that speculation is building that the central bank could start a new round of quantitative easing in an effort to give banks access to further cheap money.

This however is a topic for speculation in the medium term, in the short term look out for economic data from Europe on Friday morning. This is when fresh inflation data is released and along with it a changing view and forecast will be made on the future policy of the bank and therefore the euros price.  All a little confusing I know but please remember the market moves on rumour more than fact and any change to forecasts can make a bigger difference to prices than an actual change as the market tried to second guess future changes in policy.

For more information or a full break down of the above and how it could effect you contact the author STEVE EAKINS at hse@currencies.co.uk

Euro continues to decline heaping misery on Euro sellers. (Ben Amrany)

The Euro has taken a hit after last Friday the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi hinted at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming that broad-based asset purchases (QE) have become more likely and necessary for the euro zone.

This sent the Euro down to the lowest level against the USD in 11 months and also caused it to weaken by a cent against the pound as the Euro block is in a completely different place economically wise to that of the UK and the States.

While in the UK and US  the central bank is considering hiking interest rates, in Europe they are monetary easing, which is what the UK and US have already halted.  The European economy is a good couple of years behind the UK & US so I expect we will continue to see a weak Euro for the foreseeable future until interest rates seem like they could be hiked. A long road ahead is in store for Europe!!

Tomorrow Key unemployment data out of Germany could heap further pressure on the single currency so if you are looking at selling the Euro you may wish to act sooner to minimize any further losses.

If you enjoy reading our site and would like more information on the currency exchange service we offer please do feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk  I will explain the service we can provide as well as all the options available to you.

 

 

Why has Sterling fallen against the Euro recently (Tom Holian)

Exchange rates for the currency pair GBP vs EUR have fallen by almost 3 cents since the 2 year high hit in late July. The reason for the previous highs was because it was suggested that UK interest rates may go up before the end of the year but recent data has put that in doubt.

Shortly after the release of The Quarterly Inflation Report last week Bank of England governor Mark Carney was asked to comment on interest rates but he said he would not discuss it at that time which saw Sterling fall quickly against the single currency as investors saw it as a sign that the likelihood of a rate hike is further away.

Indeed, the inflation data out on Tuesday showed a fall from 1.9% down to 1.6% which again saw Sterling fall. The Bank of England’s target for inflation is 2% and if inflation rises the common policy to be used is to increase interest rates. Therefore, as the data was lower this has spooked investors.

UK Retail Sales growth was weaker than many expectations as they went up by just 0.1% compared to the expected 0.4%. With the retail industry the biggest measure of GDP then a fall is likely to have a negative impact on future growth. Again, another reason for the fall for the Pound vs Euro.

The Bank of England minutes showed that 2 on the 9 members voted for a rate hike from 0.25% to 0.75% but owing to the inflation data I think next month we could see a change of mind.

With the bank holiday weekend coming up if you’d like to get more information about saving money when buying Euros then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Where Next for EUR Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR had broken through 1.25 against GBP earlier this week but the spike was short lived, with the latest Bank of England (BoE) minutes pushing the Pound back above this threshold. The EUR made gains against Sterling earlier this week primarily because UK inflation data came out worse than expected, which in turn pushed the Pound’s value down. This is interesting as it shows when the EUR has strengthened recently it is not because any specific market confidence in the single currency.

Poor Eurozone PMI data released today will do little to change the perception of a EUR, which has been handicapped by a struggling, stagnant economy. GBP/EUR looks likely to remain range-bound between 1.23-1.27 in the short-term and I do believe the EUR will find protection in this range.

EUR/USD rates remain above 1.30 for the time being but with the recent improvements in the US economy, including yesterday’s Federal Reserve minutes, this level could soon be breached.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Euro falls after bank of England minutes send the pound spiking. (Ben Amrany)

The Euro has had a day of declines against many of the major currencies out there by an average of 0.3%

Against the pound the Euro dipped from 1.2475 (0.8016) to 1.2545 (0.7971) in the space of a few minutes after the minutes were released by the Bank of England of their last interest rate decision. For the first time since 2011 2 members from the central bank voted for interest rates to rise. It was a little surprising as we expecting one member at best to vote for the hike. The pound could have easily strengthened by more but cemented itself around the 1.2520 (0.7987) level.

In Europe German PPI dipped and tomorrow we await all the manufacturing data out of Germany and the whole Euro block. In the UK for those trading GBP/EUR the retail figures will have a big impact on tomorrows movement. We are expecting  the sector to grow and any change will have an impact on the rates on teh single currency.

If you are looking at buying or selling the Euro please do feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will explain the options available to you and the benefits of using our currency service to achieve a better rate through the bank.

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

 

GBPEUR forecasts for today – when to buy/sell

Bank of England minutes today could make a real difference to rates of exchange this week.  Generally Sterling’s value has been sliding of late following comments by the bank of England at their Quarterly Inflation Report last week. This was when they painted a bleak picture for wage inflation this year which in turn has pushed back expectations of an Interest Rate rise until next year. Economic data from the UK recently has also showed a fall slowly eating away at the Pounds value.  Sterling has now lost nearly 4% against the USD for example over the last fortnight, falling from a 6 year high to a 6 month low in just 2 weeks. It highlights how quickly rates can change so if you have exposure to the market and would like more information please contact myself STEVE EAKINS via my email at hse@currencies.co.uk

Later this morning we have more data from the Bank of England in the form of their most meeting minutes. There are nine members of the MPC who vote and therefore make changes to policy. I think it is hugely unlikely that any members could have voted for a change however I am not with the majority of forecasters. Many think that one member could have made a vote for a change and if we saw this levels could change significantly. This is released at 9:30 so if you would like an update of this breaking news please register your interest by getting in contact. Last month Sterling was at a 2 year high before this report was released when thereafter levels dropped by over a cent so with this uncertainty in mind I would suggest anyone with a need to be ready to move very quickly.

For more information or to discuss your situation directly with me please email me at hse@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading,

Steve

What can we expect for the Euro in the future?

The Euro appears to be on course for future losses which may manifest in the next month or so owing to continued pressure on the Eurozone economy to show some improvements in their economic outlook. Some months ago we were in a similair position and Marios Draghi announced a range of measures to ease liquidity in the Eurozone – that is making money more cheaply available to try and stimulate the economy. Unemployment is still a big problem in the Eurozone and boosting growth will help to combat this problem.

The cutting of their base interest rate has so far failed to ignite the economy and stave off the deflationary pressures in the Eurozone. Last month’s data has so far all been rather worrying and I am of the opinion anyone holding out expecting larger moves back in their favour in the future should beware of the risk involved. If you look at the historic charts the GBPEUR rate used to be much higher in the past flirting with levels of 1.50 – 1.60 for a period of time. Therefore the more favourable recent moves which we have seen could be viewed as an anomaly never to return as the economic recovery in the UK gathers pace.

All in all a strong pound and rising Eurozone concerns seems to indicate to me a deterioration in the current levels for those selling euros for GBP. If you need to make an exchange now or in the future please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

UK Inflation Down So Pound Drops Versus The Euro (Colm Gilhooly)

After the big drop in GBP EUR rates last week following the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report it did look as if the pound was making some headway yesterday.  However inflation figures this morning showed official figures has dropped from 1.9% to 1.6% whereas they had expected to come in at 1.8%.  This lower than expected inflation figure means it is less likely the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates soon and reinforces their position from last week.

However Euro sellers beware as this spike in favour may not last indefinitely with a lot of European jobs and CPI data out next week, all of which is expected to be weak.  This could put pressure on the ECB for their September meeting and see the Euro slip so if you are selling Euros I would be inclined to take advantage of current levels either on spot or forward contracts.

If you are new to currency exchange and want a better idea of how it all works, or even if you are an experienced hand and just want to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email me, Colm, at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.

GBP/EUR back through 1.25 (Mike Vaughan)

Following last weeks run the Euro has lost ground against the pound shifting back above 1.25. This comes on what was a relatively quiet day in the euro zone and the UK.

Should you be looking at the GBP/EUR pairing then much of this week will be dominated by UK data starting with UK inflation figures tomorrow at 09:30. This will be followed by what i my view is likely to be the biggest market mover this week in the form of the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday at 09:30. These minutes will show how the nine members of the monetary policy committee voted at the interest rate meeting held at the start of the week. For me it is highly likely the vote will have been 9-0 in favour of keeping the base rate on hold at 0.5% – however should any member have voted for a rate hike then expect a strong day for the pound.

This week data from the euro zone is relatively light with the most notable data being consumer confidence figures on Thursday at 15:00. Figures are forecast to fall further into negative territory. I would expect the euro yto lose some of the gains seens last week.

Should you have an upcoming money transfer to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide then please contact me by email at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Will the Euro weaken further soon?

There is a very strong chance the Euro will weaken further in the coming weeks and perhaps months if the current economic conditions deteriorate. Important measures of the Eurozone economy as a whole and the component countries have all showed a clear downturn of late. Eurozone Inflation has fallen lower and growth has stalled as the single bloc stumbles from crisis to crisis hurting confidence not only in the Eurozone but also globally. If  you would like to learn more about the forecast for your particular transaction we would be very interested to hear from you, please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

The Euro is slowly drifting into dangerous territory and anyone who needs to buy or sell euros will more than likely see the impacts of a deterioration or improvement in this situation. For more information at no cost or obligation please email me jmw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to help you.