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Carney’s comments harm Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have again fallen during yesterday’s trading session following the comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney.

Carney hinted that an interest rate cut may be coming from the current 0.5% and that further monetary easing may be required in order to protect the economy from any uncertainty as the Brexit issue carries on.

Credit ratings agency Moody’s has recently cut the UK’s credit rating from stable to negative and there are predictions that the UK will head into recession as many Brits could hold off making large purchases until some certainty returns.

Standard & Poors’ have also cut the UK’s credit ratings from AAA but have also cut the European Union’s credit grade to add to the ongoing uncertainty.

It could be argued that the exchange rates for Sterling Euros have now been priced in and that most of the negative news has been published.

However, as yet we still do not know who the next British Prime Minister will be and there doesn’t appear to be an obvious front runner at the moment.

Indeed, with Boris Johnson removing himself from the election race the campaign is likely to cause further volatility and we will not know the outcome of the vote until early September.

If you’re buying or indeed selling Euros over the next few weeks and worried about what may happen to exchange rates in the future you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for the future for a small deposit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

How far will GBPEUR fall?

GBPEUR rates were dealt a further blow from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who stated that the UK was likely to need further stimulus to support the economy in the wake of the Brexit. Having been singled out for scaremongering by the Leave camp this was Mark Carney’s chance to give his version and views on current events. The pound fell sharply against the Euro which so far has been holding up reasonably well given the prospect of the UK leaving the EU. Stimulus measures may include the lowering of interest rates or Quantitative Easing both of which would serve to weaken the currency concerned. If you are buying or selling the Euro against the Euro the recent Brexit vote is something to be very aware of.

I think GBPEUR could now trade below 1.20 for an extended period of time perhaps hitting 1.10 by the end of July. Once Mark Carney needs to firmly authorise any stimulus it is difficult to see the pound faring well and if buying pounds with Euro you might be in for some very good rates in the coming weeks! I would not rule out rates of 1.05 by August or September depending on how well the Brexit negotiations are going. If you need to buy or sell the pound or Euro making some plans in this current market is very sensible to avoid losing money from sudden sharp changes in the rate or forecast. In my opinion this is not a market to be taking big risks in so if you need to make a transfer please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information.

1 week on – BREXIT impact on Currency

1 week on from the historic vote in the UK it is safe to say that the UK pound has taken a majority of the losses.

EURGBP rates have climbed over 10 cents within the last week giving anyone with euros to sell and pound to buy the best levels in over 2 years! Spikes in the market are normally when the levels reach their peak so if you are considering taking advanatage, sooner rather than later may be a wise move.  To take advanatage quickly contact myself STEVE EAKINS via HSE@currencies.co.uk

What is to come?

Well the uncertainty is huge in the market at the moment as to the fall out from the vote just one week ago. When will the UK leave, will the UK break up, will other members states follow and leave?  I personally don’t expect any of these questions to be answered within the next 6 months as political uncertainty in the UK delays the process and the Article 50 being issued.  What is worth being proud of in the UK, if you are a Brexiteer or a Remainer, is the level of transparently in UK politics and the democratic process which is being followed. There are no guns, no violence and no arrests like in other parts of the world. This process is open and clear as we open our papers on a daily basis and see the stepping stones being taken.

Will other members vote to leave?

Considering what the UK is going through and yet to start, there has been a raise in interest from other right wing parties across the EU block calling for referendums of their own if they are elected.  In the UK a major talking point was that of emigration which would certainty be a unique agreement if the EU gave the UK free access to trade and a lower emigration level. The EU has to be careful in how they balance their response as this could easily raise interest in other member states to follow suit. It seems clear that any deal that takes place has to work for both the UK and the EU moving forward, a big ask when looking at the key points in for discussion.

If you would like more information on these points please feel free to get in contact with myself – STEVE EAKINS – hse@currencies.co.uk

Euro buying rates rising following Brexit vote (Joshua Privett)

The political uncertainty surrounding the UK economy following the announcement of a majority in the UK supporting a Brexit originally forced Euro buying rates down to their lowest levels since April. The strong silver lining for Euro buyers is that Euro buying rates were impacted the least compared to Sterling’s other major currency pairings. 

The above is due to the fact that the Euro has suffered alongside the Pound on the news – similar to what happened with the potential for a ‘Grexit’ just last year, but without the same issues of debt obligations on the cards, so the Euro isn’t suffering as much as before.

The news was much worse for the value of the Pound, but after two very uncertain days of trading, today and Tuesday has seen some stability return to the financial world. The Pound has now regained 2 cents against the Euro, to offset the 10 cent loss on Friday.

Moving forward, rates will be governed by the evolving landscape of the Brexit, and the implications on the UK economy. Leadership battles will ensue, and hints about the time-frame for a Brexit will govern the value of the Pound. It’s likely that this sudden stability is down to a delayed fuse until October that the UK will be enacting Article 50, as Cameron is waiting until a new Prime Minister is installed.

In the short-term however, it is likely the Pound will be coming under further pressure with the UK’s next interest rate decision at the beginning of next month. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has hinted heavily that an interest rate cut may occur to protect the economy during this transitional period. Should this occur demand for the Pound will fall further still, as interest rates are already at record lows of 0.5%.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return. Given this window of opportunity that commentators are expecting, a premium will be put on being able to move quickly should any favourable opportunities emerge.

My service is very proactive and I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere. For anyone requiring Euros later in the year, these current buying levels can also be fixed in place to avoid the uncertainty inherent in the markets over the next few months. Essentially you can pre-book your currency to be purchased at a later date. 01494 787 478

Sterling Supported After Brexit

As the dust settles the pound has found a second day of support on Day 4 after Brexit. After making some good gains across most currencies yesterday including the Euro and US dollar the currency markets are certainly looking more stable, for the time being anyway. Let’s be clear though – there will be much more volatility to come from all of this! Anyone who is holding a large volume of currency can currently take advantage of some excellent trading prices for selling Euros / selling dollars

At the EU summit yesterday David Cameron made clear that Britain was not turning its back on Europe but the issue of freedom of movement of labour needs to be addressed. However there are strong views from France who state that access to the single market must accept free movement rules. Poland also wishes to keep freedom of movement.

In my opinion both the UK and EU do seek to make a deal that will allow Britain to have access to the single market, which should come. This will inevitably result in sterling strength but we are long way from that now. However we first need to see a prime minister in place and the future leader candidates are being announced this week.

Things should start to become clearer after this time. The question is  what kind of a deal that will be and how well the negotiations go. Whilst a timely solution is desirable for all parties nothing will be done too quickly which could see Britain in an envious position with so much anti EU views in EU countries.

In the short term the pound very much remains under pressure but it is important to note that Britain has not actually left the EU, yet. The pound should remain subdued with considerable risk to the downside in the meantime.

Politics is now very much at play both in the UK and EU and as these daily developments unfold it will have a direct impact on sterling exchange rates. A further weakening in the price of the pound in the short term however seems the most likely course.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement either buying or selling and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively you can email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk

Buying Euro rates showing signs of recovery as UK financial situation stabilises (Joshua Privett)

The continued slide on Euro buying rates since 3am Friday morning seems to have finally stabilized, with GBP/EUR finding some support around the 1.20 mark.

After an utter panic sell-off of Sterling when the vote was coming in, and the continued movements caused by speculative traders, the realisation of a delayed fuse on policy change has caused allowed UK markets to stop reeling and begin to function normally. Money has begun pouring into the UK financial once more, unsurprising given how cheap everything has become.

Cameron has played a card which bought the UK three months. Whatever your political views, the markets reaction has shown unequivocally what the global financial system feels about the decision. The Pound had its single worst day against all major currencies, but by delaying the introduction of Article 50 (the first step in leaving the EU) to October, markets have been given the opportunity to act as normal.

With this, the Pound has essentially been bouyed by increased demand. So where now?

We have to sit tight. Cameron is currently in Brussels attempting to establish a timeline and step by step understanding of the process, as there is no precedent.

Expectations are that when a timeline is released markets will begin to return to further normality when they have official confirmation that no real change in financial policy will occur for years to come.

Immediate, substantial, and gradually evapourating opportunities to sell Euros have emerged. I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro selling requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Sterling return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and anyone completing on properties or waiting for funds to be released and do not want to miss out on opportunities currently available can pre-book their currency based on current levels for a future transfer.

Euro buyers may see markets stabilise further and create some opportunities, at least in the short-term. Feel free to get in contact to discuss how best to seize any opportunities which emerge.

EURGBP exchange rates at a 27 Month high

Euro sellers, a great window of opportunity has presented itself, the UK’s future departure from the EU may well have worked in your favour.

Will the trend continue? This depends on a number of factors but it would appear that rates are likely to remain this way for the foreseeable.

A number of factors could put further pressure on the Pound, if we look back at the last 5 days, more questions than answers have been raised over the Brexit vote. For starters, David Cameron’s resignation raises questions over who will be taking the UK through the withdrawal process, will it be Boris Johnson, Theresa May? What’s going to happen with the troubled Labour party with 19 of its members resigning, could this be the end of Jeremy Corbyn?

And what will Scotland and Northern Ireland do, as Remain majorities, will they opt to remain within the EU leaving the UK behind? What impact will this have on the British economy?

With the remaining EU members pushing for the UK to trigger article 50, starting the official withdrawal process from the EU, how will the UK cope with the building pressure?

Then of course, there is the flip-side to the argument. Given that the UK is the 5th largest net contributor to the EU, which countries will pick up the deficit the UK has left behind? Will other nations hold their own Referendums, it looks likely that France, the Netherlands, Italy and Sweden may hold their own.

Angela Merkel has called for calm re-negotiations with the UK, whilst nations such as the US and Germany opting to keep existing trade with the UK intact, could this lead to a smoother transition phase?

The EU has been hit by the Brexit vote and this is noticeable in the EURUSD exchange rates, which have dropped since Friday by over 5 cents. This highlights just how vulnerable the Euro is, as well as Pound Sterling. For those looking to buy or sell Euro’s, now could be an opportunity to do so in the event exchange rates worsen in the coming weeks.

Those looking to buy Euro’s may be put off by the large drop in rates, but given that GBPEUR rates were 1.02 during the recession, we are still a long way from these ranges.

If you would like to make a transfer but are concerned about the latest news, email Rob at rdl@currencies.co.uk, I’ll be happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements.

Sterling continues to fall against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling has continued to fall against the Euro this morning as the panic selling continues from the weekend.

I expect the losses to carry on but perhaps not by as much as what happened during Friday’s trading session.

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has held a press conference this morning in an attempt to calm the markets after Brexit.

However, with over ten Labour MPs having resigned over the weekend in the wake of the referendum I think we could see further resignations over the next few days from all the parties.

Clearly the uncertainty of the Brexit vote is weighing heavily on Sterling exchange rates which is great news if you’re looking to sell Euros to buy Sterling.

Politically this is a very difficult situation for the UK and at the moment it is not clear who will be the next Prime Minister but Osborne looks like he will be staying in his position at least for the time being.

Osborne did say however that it would be ‘perfectly sensible to wait for a new prime minister’

There are a few economic data releases this week but the ongoing fallout of the Brexit will carry on making headlines.

The remaining 27 EU leaders will be meeting on Wednesday of this week to discussion the situation and David Cameron will not be there.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

In light of how busy the fx markets are at the moment if you want a quicker response please include your phone number when contacting me.

 I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Referendum collapses Euro buying rates, but not as much as anticipated (Joshua Privett)

Friday saw some saw some of the largest single falls on record for buying Euro rates of exchange, only 4 trading days after a Monday hailed as the best performing day for the Pound since 2009.

I had left the office at 10pm Thursday, noting Farage’s near concession speech, with Financial markets already heavily pricing in the Remain vote. To wake at 4am to see GBP/EUR rates having already fallen by 10 cents was an immediate shock to the system, and the realisation that the Pound had entered into new territory.

How would rates continue to react throughout the day? No major country had ever left an economic union. But we still hadn’t. It was simply the decision to begin the journey, which could be realised in a thousand different ways.

This is why yesterday we did not see the 20% drop in the value of the Pound touted by the liked of HSBC and Goldman Sachs in the event of a Brexit. Further falls may come later depending on how long the process takes, and what our relationship with the EU translates into down the line.

The Pound’s worst losses were against the Dollar, yet due to the Euro weakening off the back of the news as well – similar to the amazing buying levels produced when Greece were close to exiting the EU last year – buying rates on Euros are still a couple of Cents higher than where rates were in April.

There is still much in this story which is yet to unfold. Nicola Sturgeon has already taken to the airwaves to dicuss a new Scottish Referendum, and businesses are threatening job losses if the UK loses access to the single market. Both of which, although signficant to the value of the Pound, will be months, if not a year down the line.

Markets will continue to fluctuate heavily off the back of speculative trading on the news, but on Friday some clear stabilisation factors were present.

The initial drop on GBP/EUR was followed by a net gain of 2 cents over the rest of the day, and even recovered by 4 cents at it’s peak.

The average difference between the high and the low each day for buying and selling Euro rates of 1.5 cents has been thrown out this window for this week, opportunities will be presented for either requirement on a daily basis. A premium will simply be put on being in a position to move quickly should any tempting opportunities suddenly crop up.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a buying or selling Euro requirement should contact me whilst markets are closed over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk. I offer a tailored service to anyone wishing to exchange currency in this marketplace filled with unprecedented volatility, and alert my customers immediately to any opportunities which emerge.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can actually be fixed in place for anyone planning a currency purchase in the future, allowing you to avoid the uncertainty over the next few weeks.

Pound plummets against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Following the result of the EU referendum this has caused mass panic in the financial markets and caused Sterling to fall by as much as 11 cents against the Euro at one point during Friday’s trading session.

The result has come as a surprise and only a few hours before the voting started to take place the bookies had set the odds to 10-1 on for a Remain vote.

On early Friday morning Sterling began to plummet vs the Euro and the hysteria continued during Friday afternoon as we saw big swings on exchange rates and I expect this to carry on early next week.

Prime Minister David Cameron has announced his resignation which will take place in October and if currency does not like anything it’s uncertainty.

We are now in a period of both political and economic uncertainty and I expect to see Sterling continue to fall against the Euro as we go into next week.

In my 13 years in the foreign exchange industry I have never seen such a huge daily movement between Sterling and the Euro and I expect Sterling to remain under pressure against the single currency.

Credit rating agency Moody’s has downgraded the UK economy from stable to negative and another reason why Sterling has fallen by such a huge amount against the single currency.

If you have been hanging on to sell Euros then now appears to be an excellent opportunity to take advantage of these spikes.

If you have a currency transfer to make and are buying or selling Euros and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Owing to the huge movements on GBPEUR rates if you’d like a quicker response on Monday morning please provide me with a phone number and a brief description of your requirement. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Will the Pound fall against the Euro?

I thank you for all your emails this morning, a number of questions have been raised in the wake of the EU Referendum.

What will happen to the Pound and will it get weaker? In my opinion, yes, the Pound will likely fall further.

This prolonged period of uncertainty is likely to impact many sectors, Financial, travel, housing, as well as small businesses that rely heavily on EU trade. But the biggest shock is to the market, investment is likely to move away from the UK until a level of certainty can be assured.

What deal will the UK get now from the EU, is it likely to be good? Will the EU be strict with negotiations to sway other nations from leaving the Bloc?

Who will be the next Prime Minister now David Cameron is stepping down, and when will article 50 be triggered?

Will Scotland demand Independence from the UK? Nicola Sturgeon has already discussed today the potential for another Referendum.

There are a lot of questions and very few answers, and this is why I believe the Pound will slump further. Without knowing the bigger implications of today’s historic vote, investment within the UK is likely to dry up, pushing investment to safer haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc and US Dollar.

If you need to buy Euro’s, it may be worthwhile doing so sooner rather than later. In the event you have Euro’s to sell for Pounds, rates of 0.80 are attractive and have only been seen a handful of times in the last 2 years. Email me at rdl@currencies.co.uk if you have any questions.

Why you should buy Euros now

The vote is out on the Referendum, the UK will be withdrawing from the EU – the date is yet to be confirmed.

Of little we do know, David Cameron will be resigning and the likelihood is that a new Prime Minister will be introduced in October. The short term outcome for the UK is shrouded in uncertainty, who will be the new Prime Minister? What deal will the EU provide? What impact will this vote have on the UK economy and further seas?

We don’t know, and that’s the biggest problem. Uncertainty drives fear and fear drives investment away from the Pound into safe-havens, such as the US Dollar.

And the news this morning of Scotland’s Referendum could have major implications for the United Kingdom if they vote to leave the UK.

As a Euro buyer, you are looking for an opportunity for Pound strength, and the likelihood of Pound strength in the foreseeable is unlikely given today’s outcome. As it stands GBPEUR levels have fallen again to 1.24 during Boris Johnson’s speech, and fell further upon Nicola Sturgeon’s discussions surround a Scottish Referendum.

An exchange of 1.24 is still attractive, given that the 10-year average is 1.25. If you have Euro’s to buy, I would consider emailing me at rdl@currencies.co.uk sooner rather than later.