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No vote pushes GBP/EUR through 1.28 (Mike Vaughan)

Thankfully the vote for Scottish independence was a ‘no’ and the threat of a 10% decline in the value of sterling avoided. As a result the market pushed briefly above 1.28 before settling just above the 1.27 level.

The vote has been a relief to many and will no put focus on other areas, notably the underlying factors within the Euros Zone, that will determine how the Euro will trade in the coming weeks and months. For me I believe levels will now stabilise and we are likely to see a period of calm with markets still digesting the Scottish referendum and would look for the range to remain between 1.26-28. For anyone selling Euros the signs are not good and I would be trading on any dips towards the 1.26 level.

Should you wish to get more information on the currency service we provide and you would like a current price for your fx transfer then please email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

Scotland Decides- Will The Pound Survive Intact? (Colm Gilhooly)

Today sees the huge issue of the Scottish Referendum dominating headlines again.  If Scotland votes to leave the Union then the pound could collapse and even the under fire Euro could see major gains.  However, should Scotland vote No as I anticipate, then sterling is likely to experience a relief rally as the uncertainty over the future of the pound is secured.  The polls yesterday seemed to point to a no vote, and with UK unemployment dropping as well, the pound is a bit like a coiled spring at the minute but there is always the risk it could turn into an out of shape slinky should Scotland vote Yes and be little use to anyone!

EU inflation yesterday was slightly better than some expected but was still very weak compared with ECB target rates so it remains to be seen if their recent measures are having the desired effect, or whether more unusual measures will be used.  This is likely to keep the Euro under pressure- for anyone holding Euros who is looking to move to sterling then they should be worried by current USD EUR and AUD EUR rates as it goes to show just how much the pound could strengthen back against the single currency once the uncertainty of the referendum is removed!

The results are expected early tomorrow morning but I would imagine even a strong showing in the exit polls could be enough to trigger sterling movement.

If you need to make a currency transfer and want to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be more than happy to explain how our services work to save you money, and go through some options than may suit your individual requirements.

The Euro rate will probably weaken further

The Euro has been rather weak of late and if the ECB (European Central Bank) look likely to need to launch QE (Quantitative Easing) down the line. The UK and US are currently planning to raise their base interest rates whilst the Eurozone recently cut theirs. I do not feel this trend has finished and expect that the Euro will lose further ground this year.

The Eurozone is still struggling with issues and investors will be weary of holding too much money there, the USD and the GBP will offer much better attractions, particularly if they raise their base rates. For more information on what is likely to happen to the Euro and to discuss strategies on how to capitalise please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

The Scottish referendum is going to be a big event tomorrow, if you have not made any plans for this please get in touch as well to discuss how you can maximise your deal.

Sterling Euro Rates and the Scottish Vote (Tom Holian)

With less than 24 hours before the Scottish vote takes place all eyes are on what will happen to Sterling exchange rates over the next few days.

At the moment it appears as though the vote is relatively close and this is creating a lot of uncertainty for Sterling Euro exchange rates and if we see a Yes vote we could see Sterling take a very quick tumble against the Euro.

My personal opinion is that we’ll see a No vote but I also don’t think we’ll necessarily see Sterling benefit if this happens. If the vote is something like 60/40 this still means that 40% of those who have voted will be disillusioned with the outcome which will cause more political uncertainty.

Indeed, with David Cameron looking to increase the powers of Scotland within Westminster to keep them in the union it could mean that Wales & Northern Ireland may want more say in the future. Therefore, even if a No vote takes place I don’t really see much benefit for Sterling.

Therefore, if you’re considering making a currency transfer and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk  

 

 

 

Scottish independence still set to dominate GBP/EUR for the rest of the week (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has had an extremely volatile start to the month as the Scottish independence vote continues to play havoc with the value of sterling. Following last Sunday’s poll suggesting the ’yes’ vote was leading; a poll last week indicated that the vote was now creeping in favour of the ‘no’ camp. This uncertainty is creating big swings and the market volatility is clear to see with the pound having shifted from a high low of 1.6530-1.6070 against against the Euro (1.6%) last week alone.

As the market appears to be focusing entirely on the Scottish independence, other data sets are not having the usual impact on the pound. Last week’s industrial and manufacturing figures were better than forecast and Mark Carney also hinted the first rate hike could be in the spring of 2015. Under normal trading conditions I would have expected the pound to have gained in value, however one thing can be said the current trading conditions are far from normal and highlights how important it is to keep in contact with your broker.

Sterling/Euro

GBP/EUR rates are still trading just a cent off from a near two year high and again this week’s movements are set to be dominated by sterling’s shifts. For me I still believe the ‘no’ vote will prevail and as a result I would expect the pound to see some support when the results from the referendum will be released on Thursday. Should you be selling Euros you may wish consider your position before the 18th

Also worth keeping an eye on tomorrow’s Bank of England minutes at 09:30 and

If your business makes foreign exchange payments or you are buying or selling a property in the future, a forward contract is the only way to guarantee your price once a deal is finalised.If you would like to protect yourself against future market losses, you can utilise one of our forward contracts, which will allow you to lock in a rate and remove the uncertainty moving forward. Please contact me to learn more about this very popular option. I can be reached by email on mgv@currencies.co.uk

GBP EUR Rates Drop After UK Inflation – However The Scottish Referendum Is Still The Main Market Focus (Colm Gilhooly)

The pound has fallen against the Euro this morning after UK inflation suggests there is still little need for an interest rate hike to curb inflation.  Speculation is also growing over the outcome of Thursday’s Scottish Referendum, as although the No campaign seem to have gained a marginal advantage in the last week, the vote is still too close to call and sterling has been suffering from a sell off as a result.

My gut feeling is that Scotland will vote no, and the pound will have a relief rally towards the end of the week (either if exit polls show a No vote is likely or the No result is published), however the implication of a Yes vote are still completely unknown, and could result in a big fall for the pound over an indefinite period.  Whilst I don’t expect the financial Armageddon that some are suggesting, it is a concern for anyone moving sterling to euro in the short term.

We do also have the Bank of England Minutes published tomorrow, although I am expecting no change from the 7-2 split from last month, and UK unemployment is expected to show a slight fall.  Again though I think any benefit for sterling may be suppressed until we see the results from Scotland.

EU inflation is also out on Wednesday so a weak showing could put the Euro under even more pressure against most currencies like the USD, and in the evening we have the latest Federal Reserve rate decision and economic forecasts.  If this points towards an improving US economy, and a greater chance of the Fed moving towards an interest rate hike, we could see the Dollar strengthen further versus the euro and the pound.

All in all we are in for a very busy and volatile few days, so if you need to make a currency transfer, and want to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our service works to save you money.

EUR Strength Ahead of Scottish Referendum (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a volatile week for the EUR following further uncertainty over the Scottish referendum. A poll earlier this week indicated that the vote was at 51% in favour of Scottish independence, news which shook the markets, sending Sterling crashing against the single currency. The EUR has reached a high of 1.2397 against Sterling this week, although by close of European trading today the Pound has managed to realign itself above 1.25 on the exchange.

Personally I do not expect Scotland to breakaway and with the UK recovery still outpacing that of the Eurozone, we may find the EUR struggles to make any serious inroads against the Pound in the short-term.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Market settles after cagey start to weak for the pound (Mike Vaughan)

Once again the GBP/EUR see saw is continuing with the yes/no vote for Scottish independence dominating the market. With the initial indications earlier in the week suggesting the ‘yes’ vote was creeping ahead it would now appear the ‘no’ vote is starting to take control, leading to sterling strength. What is certain is that this market uncertainty is set to continue in the run up to the vote on Thursday next week.

Looking at other data to be aware of and it is a relatively quiet day today from the pounds point of view and this mornings data from the Euro Zone showed a good improvement in industrial production data which did little to the market showing how much focus is being placed on the Scottish referendum.

Next week is set to be as equally volatile as this week so put yourself in a position to get as much information as you can. To get more insight into the full currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Scottish Vote causes huge movement on Sterling Euro (Tom Holian)

The Scottish referendum now just over a week away has caused huge movement for GBPEUR exchange rates over the last few days as polls have come out showing that the vote is very close at the moment.

Indeed, this morning we saw Sterling fall by 1 cent against the Euro this morning following an early release poll but the fall earlier has been wiped out with Sterling strengthening this afternoon as the three leading political leads canvas for votes across Scotland.

David Cameron has claimed he would be ‘heartbroken’ if a yes vote takes place and personally I don’t foresee a Yes vote happening. With many previous elections/referendums the votes are often made out to be close in the few days leading up to the event but are then proved to be very inaccurate before the confirmation finally comes out.

Therefore, I think with investors nervous about holding Sterling at the moment this is why we’re likely to see large swings on the GBPEUR rates during the course of this week and next.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

The euro will probably remain on the weaker side

The Euro is most certainly on the back foot falling to a year low against the USD finally breaking back below the magic 1.30 level. I expect too against the pound the Euro will remain weak although the uncertainty presented to the market by the Scottish Referendum is a clear driver of sterling weakness, presenting what I believe is an excellent opportunity to sell euros for GBP.

The market can quickly turn and it is impossible to say exactly what will happen in the future. However I fell it reasonable to suggest the Euro will remain at an elevated level against sterling (the best levels since June) for the duration of the run up to the vote. It would seem likely to expect that after the vote (and assuming a ‘No’ vote as is still expected to be the main outcome) the pound will rise against the euro and focus will shift back to possible QE in the Eurozone.

In short if you are selling Euros for GBP moving sooner may be wise, if buying euros and feeling brace you may wish to wait until after the vote. We offer a specialist proactive service to guide clients through their currency exchanges, please feel free to contact me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information.

EUR Strengthens Against GBP Following Uncertainty Over Scottish Referendum (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR has strengthened significantly against GBP during the early part of the trading week, following a poll which indicated the vote for Scottish independence had gained further support. In fact figures indicated 51% of the votes are now in favour of a breakaway, news which immediately shook the markets.

Sterling had been performing well against the single currency but following the weekends developments GBP/EUR rates have dipped to a 10 month low, providing EUR sellers with some much needed respite. The single currency is benefiting from uncertainty in the UK economy, not due to any particular confidence in the Eurozone and because of this current levels may not last. Looking ahead and we have the latest ECB monthly report on Thursday, followed by employment data on Friday, both of which are likely to affect EUR exchange ratess

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Thursday’s ECB monthly report the main focus for the Euro this week (Mike Vaughan)

Following the weekends YouGov poll suggesting the Scottish independence vote has shifted in favour of the yes votes, another poll this morning has got the split at an even 50/50. This has lent some support to the pound and pushed rates back above the 1.25 mark.

The pound has also found some support against the single currency following this morning UK industrial and manufacturing figures which came out better than forecast.

Looking at the Euro this week and the main focus will be Thursday’s ECB monthly report. This report will give a detailed analysis of the current economic situation in the Euro Zone and the risks to price stability, it may also give clues as to what future monetary policy the ECB may have in store, and with interest rates at 0.05% their focus may shift towards other policies to stifle the deflationary pressures they are currently experiencing.

Should you have an upcoming Euro money exchange to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk and I will gladly be of assistance.