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The worrying impact of a Brexit vote for Sterling exchange rates (Tom Holian)

We are now just less than 4 weeks away from one of the biggest economic events in British history when the UK votes in the EU referendum on 23rd June. Currently it appears according to various opinion polls that the Remain camp are leading but as the vote is democratic anything could happen.

This weekend former Prime Minister Tony Blair spoke about the issue claiming that leaving the EU would create ‘an enormous economic problem.’ Tony Blair spoke on BBC yesterday morning and he has come out in favour of the UK remaining part of the European Union. He also claimed that leaving would result in ‘years of uncertainty for the UK’.

So far there has been huge public backing for the Remain camp including UK government, Bank of England, IMF and the European Union itself so or me I think it is difficult to see the UK not voing to remain in.

Over the last quarter UK industrial and manufacturing has come out very low and hitting 3 year lows recently. This has been caused by a lack of overseas investment in the British economy whilst the future is uncertain and until we see what happens in just less than a month the currency markets remain very fragile and open o big swings for Sterling vs Euro.

Indeed, Sterling Euro exchange rates have seemingly overlooked the most recent economic data releases with the Brexit talks tending to cause volatility for exchange rates.

However, Eurozone inflation is published on Tuesday and anything different compared to the expectation could cause the European Central Bank to once again look at extending Quantitative Easing, which could cause volatility for Sterling Euro rates when the ECB meets on Thursday to discuss their latest economic policy.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared o using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Immigration vs Economy – EU Referendum update (Dayle Littlejohn)

Since David Cameron announced the UK would hold an referendum in regards to EU membership exchange rates have fluctuated 9 cents and a well timed €200,000 purchase could have saved you £11,000. Its important to note GBPEUR rates at present are close to 4 month highs and the best levels since the UK Prime Minister made is announcement.

This weekend Former Mayor of London Boris Johnson has been back in the media criticising David Cameron last manifesto, in regards to the promises he has made about immigration. According to the Office for National statistics the difference between the number of people coming to the UK for at least a year and those leaving, rose to 333,000 in 2015. The government made promises this number would drop to below 100,000.

The UK Prime Minister response has been to brush the comments aside and is back to informing the UK public that a ‘Brexit’ according to 9 in 10 economists will have a detrimental impact to the economy for many years.

It seems to me there is a Tory division occurring at present and no doubt within the next 4 weeks more mud will be thrown be each party and therefore I expect volatility to increase, which will intern put pressure on the Pound and therefore exchange rates will fall.

Presently GBPEUR rates are sitting at levels where we were before David Cameron announced a UK referendum would be held June 23rd. If you are buying Euros in the next 6 months I believe its worth buying all of the Euros up front by using a spot or forward contract and therefore taking the EU referendum completely out of the picture.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros this year (especially before June 23rd), the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales.

Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.

*Please notes due to the Bank Holiday weekend I will not be back into the office until Tuesday morning*

 

4 weeks to go before the EU Referendum and the impact for Sterling exchange rates (Tom Holian)

We are now just less than 4 weeks to go before the UK decides its future in the European Union and the currency markets are approaching one of their most uncertain periods in years.

Sterling vs the Euro has hit a 4 month high recently with the Interbank levels briefly touching 1.32 earlier this week.

The exchange rates are being moved by sentiment surrounding the Brexit vote and a few days ago a YouGov poll showed that the Remain camp were leading in the polls.

My personal suspicion is that the Remain vote will end up winning when the voting opens on June 23rd. The reason why I think this is because of the huge backing.

The UK government, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund as well as the European Union have all spoken out in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union so for me it is difficult to see anything but the UK vote to remain.

However, as the vote is democratic it will ultimately be the British public who will decide the outcome and with that in mind we could see some big swings for Sterling Euro exchange rates during the next month.

Many of my clients have been choosing to safeguard their exchange rates with a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

This is especially useful if you have transfers to make over the next couple of months as it means you can guarantee your exchange rate and it will eliminate the risk of what may  happen to rates in the run up to the EU referendum vote.

If you need to make a currency transfer and want to save money on exchange rates having worked in the markets for 13 years I am not only confident of offering you a competitive exchange rate but also assure you of excellent service. Feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will GBPEUR continue to trade above 1.30? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling sellers have been presented with some favourable exchange rates recently, as the polls continue to place the ‘Remain’ campaigns in the lead.

News of the ‘Remain’ lead has resulted in Sterling strength as investors feel more comfortable holding money in Pounds whilst there’s a low chance of major changes politically in future. It’s political uncertainty that weighs on currency rates, and this pattern is what Sterling sellers will need to pay close attention to as I think it’s highly likely that should the polls change, so will Sterling’s fortune.

The Pound is currently trading at a 4 month high against the Euro, and personally I’m expecting GBP to fall slightly in the lead up to the Referendum next month on the 23rd as I’m expecting headwinds between now and then. Should any major figures offer their support to the leave camp, I think Sterling could see weakness similar to when Boris Johnson informed us that he’s pro-brexit.

The Euro is facing challenges of it’s own as the ECB’s aggressive financial stimulus packages fail to re-ignite the Eurozone economy which is why I’m expecting the Pound to hold on to some of its recent gains, but not all of them. I think that as we approach the Referendum GBPEUR will be around the 1.28 mark which means that from current levels, I expect GBP to fall by around 3 cents.

If you have an upcoming GBPEUR currency exchange to make you would like to discuss, feel free to contact me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Buying Euro rates near four-month highs (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR exchange rates have seen their second consecutive day of serious gains on the currency markets, as buying Euro rates saw 1% gains daily between Tuesday and Wednesday.

The feature of these tempting gains which had been absent until now was that there were sticking. Spikes and dips had until now characterized GBP/EUR exchange rates given the agitated nature of investors and banks in the run up to the Referendum vote.

But the first two weeks of May produced the most stable period for buying Euro rates since the beginning of the year, barely changing between 1.26-7, has given greater confidence to the market-place. Regular trading patterns which had been disrupted initially by Referendum uncertainty have re-emerged among the traders at high street banks (the ones who move the volumes large enough to effect currency exchange rates), giving the Pound some more life.

Effectively, the recent stability has allowed investors to delay jumping ship too early before the vote. When GBP/EUR hit 1.21 in April this shows that many had been prone to doing so.

Yet polls for the vote four weeks away are still uncertain. The remain camp has been boosted (another factor in increased stability), but the wide margin in the results doesn’t inspire confidence in the numbers.

Ipsos-Novi had the Remain camp up by 8 points in their telephone poll whilst the Leave camp were up by 4 in their online poll. Polling companies aren’t regaining the confidence they lost from the May election last year.

With normal trading activities having re-emerged, Euro buyers should be wary of growth figures coming out later this morning for the UK economy. This has been a sticking point monthly this year, and in April it was even confirmed that for the first time in almost three years, the Eurozone outpaced the UK’s growth.

With so much left to chance over the next four weeks, and with the growth figures out today set to dominate the economic rhetoric on Pound value until Wednesday when the new month begins and fresh data is released, Euro buyers may be wise to seize the 10 cent movements in your favour since April.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and the current buying levels as they are today can actually be fixed in place to avoid any pitfalls surround the upcoming Referendum affecting planned currency exchanges later in the year. A brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

Euro sellers can also do the same, and I can outline the options open to you to minimise your risk on the currency markets ahead of the EU vote. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling continues to make gains against the Euro – Highest rates since February (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have continued to go in an upwards direction throughout today’s trading session as the sentiment appears to be in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union when the Brexit vote takes place on 23rd June.

Indeed, buying Euros with Sterling are trading at their best rates since early February.

A poll released last Thursday as well as another one overnight appears to have the Remain camp firmly in the lead with 55% of the vote.

The bookmakers have also changed the odds to 1-4 on in favour of the UK voting to stay in the European Union.

The economic data for both the UK and Eurozone has been mixed recently and Germany in particular has been posting lots of strong data recently.

However, the driving force for Sterling Euro exchange rates is the ongoing saga of the Brexit vote and with less than 5 weeks to go before the UK votes on the decision the currency markets are set for big movements during this uncertain period.

Many of my clients have been purchasing forward contracts when either buying or selling Euros in the next few weeks as it allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Tomorrow morning the UK releases the second revision of GDP figures for the first quarter and any change in the estimate of 0.4% could cause some movement early tomorrow morning.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Selling Euros and buying Pounds

The EURGBP rates have been falling recently hurting anyone that is looking to buy Sterling with the Single Currency.  The driving factor for this pair has been hugely impacted by the potential outcome of the EU referendum in less than a month on their membership to the EU.  Moving forward this is probably going to remain the driving factor for this pairing in the next 30 days.

What we will see as we get closer to this event that the Pound may weaken giving you, EURGBP traders some relief.  So within the next 3-4 weeks expect rates to get better giving you an opportunity to get more for your money. If you want to regester for SPIKE notifications or RATE ALERTS please get in contact, email me – hse@currencies.co.uk

In the near future, if you don’t have that amount of time and are looking to trade this week it is UK GDP figures tomorrow which will probabaly give you the best prices.  This is expected to show a fall in the UK economic activity as a direct result of the uncertainty about the EU referendum. Weakening the Pound and giving you the best levels we are probably going to see in the near future.

Here we offer a pro-active service helping our clients time transfers with information driving market direction. If you would like a full breakdown of driving factors and how this could impact your finances please get in contact via hse@Currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR hits 4 month high! (Dayle Littlejohn)

In the last 6 weeks GBPEUR exchange rates have increased 7 1/2 cents making a €200,000 purchase £9,000 cheaper. 

In recent weeks latest polls (in regards to EU referendum) are suggesting the UK will remain part of the EU. This is providing support for the Pound as investors feel more comfortable investing in a stable UK economy.

Furthermore Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, has stated today the Bank of England do not want to keep anything from the British public and they should be aware a technical recession is on the horizon if the UK left the EU. No doubt Mr Carney is rallying votes for the ‘In’ campaign.

This shift in sentiment is a surprise and I still believe GBPEUR will fall in the weeks leading up to the EU referendum regardless of what polls suggest.

If you have gambled and not bought your Euros hoping for a spike before June 23rd, your gamble could have potentially paid off however I would strongly recommend trading on the back of the 7 1/2 spike we have seen.

If you are buying or selling Euros this year, June 23rd EU referendum decision is going to have a major impact on your trade and could COST or SAVE you thousands!

For people reading this website for the first time the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are already using a brokerage and have stumbled across this article because you are simply looking for information in regards to the currency market, I want to help you save as money compared to the brokerage you are already using. For a comparison email me with the exact figures and the currency pair and I will email you with our live buying price.

Alternatively if you would like to speak to me on the phone you can call on 01494 787 478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

Will the Euro rate gain or lose against Sterling and the Dollar this week? (Daniel Wright)

We have very little in  terms of key economic data out for Europe this week but there is still plenty out there in the global economy that may impact where the Euro sits at the end of the trading week.

My personal opinion is that I feel the Euro could be set for a tough time in the coming weeks, we still have troubles for Greece and a number of other economies within the Eurozone and the referendum in the U,K may well weigh heavily on the Euro as well as Sterling. The reason for this is that should the U.K decide to leave the EU (although this looks unlikely at present) then this may open the door for a number of other countries to look to follow suit which could be really bad news for the EU and indeed the Euro.

This morning we have net borrowing figures in the U.K which may impact Sterling and later today we have new home sales data out in the States.

My personal opinion is that I would not be surprised to see GBP/EUR go back through 1.30 by the end of this week  and EUR/USD to remain fairly range bound.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Euro for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

GBP/EUR rates touch back into 1.28 briefly (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates have seen heavy volatility to begin the week, but all concentrated within the 1.28-1.29 trading bracket for GBP/EUR. After staying above 1.30 for a period of 34 hours last week, Sterling’s characteristic ‘fits’ of strength we’ve seen so far this year seems to be being repeated, with another net loss being recorded so far today.

With no data of note being released today markets seem to be looking ahead to tomorrow’s growth figures for the EU economy and are already beginning to price the positive outcome forecasted, with the Euro up against all major currency pairings, included the US Dollar, Australian Dollar, and the most commonly requested pairing on this website – the Pound.

Last month it was revealed that for the first time in nearly three years growth in the Eurozone outpaced that of the UK. The first quarter of 2016 showed only 0.4% growth in the UK, and 0.6% growth across the Channel. This is a reflection of the difficult year the UK economy has been having (the steel crisis and looming Referendum to name but a few points of concern), whilst the Eurozone is finally beginning the feel the positive effects of incredibly cheap credit (with base rates now at 0%) and a 400% increase in foreign investment compared to last year.

On Tuesday Euro growth figures will be released, and on Thursday our own growth figures in the UK will be scrutinized. As such if both figures come in as expected it is likely that GBP/EUR will be falling throughout the week.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to explore a strategy for your transfer which suits you, and is geared towards maximising your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere. Simply email me with your requirement then I can respond to discuss the options open to you through a currency exchange specialist, alongside a free, no obligation quote to give you a full idea on how our service can assist you.

If your transfer in not until later into the year, these current levels can also be fixed in place to avoid the potential pitfalls associated with waiting across the volatile Referendum period.

Euro sellers can also get in contact, and I will explain how best to manage the movements ahead of the June vote. Whilst movements are expected to be in your favour, it is best to have protection in cause any sudden and unexpected events affect your transfer. 

Sterling Slides from 3 Month High (James Lovick)

The pound has slipped from its recent peak against both the Euro and US dollar following the most recent EU referendum poll which put the Remain campaign firmly in front. GBP EUR has just slipped from a 3 month high although rates remain very attractive for this pair.

The fear engine for the Remain campaign has gone into overdrive again with George Osborne and David Cameron suggesting Britain will most likely go into a recession if Britain decides to leave the EU. They have also said that house prices will go down. With GDP running at just 0.4% for the first quarter at the moment then my view is that we may go into a recession anyway whether we stay in the EU or not. A cooling of the housing market which would affect everyone equally probably wouldn’t be a bad thing, especially for first time buyers trying to get on to the property ladder. Expect more volatility going forward as politics are very much the driving force for sterling exchange rates .

UK GDP numbers are released on Thursday and for me will be the main event this week for the pound. A weak figure is likely to result in sterling weakness. I am expecting to see a lower figure at just 0.3% which is in line with the expectation from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. It would appear there is a much greater chance of the pound weakening rather than climbing higher with a looming referendum and considering sterling’s recent rapid rise higher.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement either buying or selling and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively you can email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk

Buying Euro rates above 1.30 for 34 hours last week (Joshua Privett)

Rates for buying Euros were above 1.30 last week for the first time since February, after a productive Wednesday and Thursday for Sterling on the currency markets.

The Pound was up in all major pairings following three consecutive performance figures for the UK economy, which were received as a breath of fresh air for markets, who were subjected almost two weeks of complete stagnation on GBP/EUR exchange rates.

On average this year the difference between the high and the low daily on GBP/EUR has been 1.5 cents, yet the previous 10 days of trading yielded almost no change of the 1.26-1.27 trading band.

Whilst I can admit this was a relief at the office after what has seemed an incredibly fast-paced year, I can empathise with the multitude of people with a vested interest in Euro buying rates who were faced with a difficult decision during this period – where are the rates going to go from here?

As stated this was partially answered by the mid-week boost to the Pound and the near 4 cent gains on buying Euro rates between Wednesday and close of play Thursday. Positive wage, employment, and retail sales figures for the UK economy were the driving force behind the Pound’s resurgence.

However, the overwhelming consensus, seen most notably in reports by HSBC and Goldman Sachs, is that this is not the beginning of a new trend, and this view likely contributed to the Pound’s heavy falls on Friday’s trading.

The surprisingly positive data can be attributed to introduction of summer weather (although patchy) earlier in April. This allowed industries traditionally dormant until late May or June to wake early and begin contributing to UK performance, explaining why a sudden rise in retail sales coincided with a rise in employment.

Therefore this is not evidence of a long-term turnaround. This is set to be confirmed this week with growth data for both the Eurozone and the UK to be released to the marketplace on Tuesday and Thursday.

In April it was stated by the Office of National Statistics that the Eurozone had actually reported higher growth than the UK of 0.6% during the first quarter of 2016 than the 0.4% recorded solely on our side of the Channel.

Growth is everything. Growth shows whether an investment is worthwhile, and without this vote of confidence the value of the Pound will likely slide further away from these near 4 month highs as the final week of May continues.

The conservative view is that these buying rates for Euros are a gift on the marketplace, when no-one expected such opportunities this close to a Referendum still filled with uncertainty. It now seems that the gamble in this situation for anyone holding Sterling is waiting to buy your Euros.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk

If you outline your requirement and the time frame within which you plan to conduct your transfer, then we can begin a discussion to determine the most suitable option open to you through a currency exchange specialist which suits you with a view to maximizing your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and a brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

Euro sellers can also get in contact to have a similar conversation on your options, though in this instance my thoughts will sway towards waiting for the news next week to re-coup the losses incurred to you over the last week of trading. With the near two-cent losses on GBP/EUR during Friday’s trading, the market momentum is certainly in your favour.