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UK Growth predicted to rise leading to Sterling gains vs the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange  rates have seen a rise this morning after the positive news from the Ernst & Young Item Club.

The report suggested that low inflation and stronger growth on the continent could lead to the UK economy growing by 2.8% this year even in the midst of the UK election.

The forecast was also increased to 3% for 2016 from 2.9% previously estimated.

This has given the Pound a good amount of support vs the Euro and seen it tip 1.39 during this morning’s trading session.

The ongoing issue for the Eurozone is Greece and its current debt repayments.

Currently their borrowing costs are at 27% and it is clear that the Greeks will need financial assistance in order to continue their repayments.

Even with the election looming this could give the Pound some support in the short term providing excellent buying opportunities to convert Sterling into Euros.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling set for uncertainty against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates had a good week this week apart from the final trading session on Friday afternoon which saw a crash.

The Euro fought back against the US Dollar and also the Pound possibly due to profit-taking and the Euro providing resistance.

However, there are big problems behind the scenes with the Euro as we already know that the next Eurogroup meeting to be held on April 24th will see no deal for Greece and that rumours keep growing that they will run out of money in a few weeks.

Over the same period we have the UK general election and with no party yet close to forming a majority according to opinion polls this could result in a hung parliament and therefore another coalition government.

When this happened last time Sterling saw a steep fall against the Euro in a very short period and we could see history rewrite itself.

If you need to buy Euros it may be worth considering buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for the future and eliminate the risk of the market moving against you.

If you have a currency transfer and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Don’t Hang on for that Extra Buck

GBP/EUR currently sits in the 1.39′s. Time is sure to be running out for Euro buyers. There is a strong possibility of a hung parliament. During the last General election in 2010 there was a hung parliament. It cause a significant drop in GBP/EUR dropping from the high 1.17s down to the low 1.14s.

I think procrastination could cost you if you are a Euro buyer hanging on for that extra buck, or Euro in this case. Euro sellers however be poised to move if a hung parliament does occur there may only be a small window of opportunity.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

ECB causes Euro Weakness (Tom Holian)

GPEUR exchange rates have had another good week with the mid-market touching 1.39 at times creating the best exchange rates seen this month.

The Greek crisis continues and they have this morning had their credit rating downgraded which is likely to cause some further Euro weakness.

Yesterday’s official figures for Greece showed that their deficit last year was higher than government forecasts so even though they made their most recent payment things could still get worse.

The ECB press conference held yesterday saw a movement of 1 cent from the high to low but it has now settled towards the higher range as Mario Draghi confirmed that ‘inflation is expected to remain very low or still negative in the months ahead.’

The UK election is now 3 weeks from today and I am expecting to see Sterling falling against the Euro in the weeks ahead as the uncertainty builds up as to who will take control of the country.

According to opinion polls no party has a majority so we could be in for another hung parliament.

The last time this happened the market dropped very quickly so if you need to buy Euros over the next few weeks or months you may wish to consider a forward contract. This allows you to fix your exchange rate based on the current rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Is now the right time to buy Euros with Sterling?

At present GBP/ EUR is at a 7 year high for Euro buyers. I have been asked the same question over the last 2 weeks ‘will GBP/EUR rise back to the 1.42s in the upcoming months?’ and my response has not changed. I believe there is more chance of GBP/EUR falling back to 1.35 than making gains to the 1.42s. My predictions are based on two main reasons.

Firstly with the UK general election only 22 days away, polls suggest there is no front runner and its likely the government will be made up of a coalition like previous. This is set to cause uncertainty within the markets which should weaken sterling, therefore pushing GBP/ EUR back towards the 1.35s.

Secondly  Greece is weakening the Euro as talks are still on going over debt repayments and a possible Greek Exit. In recent weeks Alexis Tspiras (Greek Prime Minister), has even gone to the lengths of meeting Putin from Russia for a possible bailout. I believe Alexis is bluffing and has no desire to leave the Euro as he knows by doing so I would isolate the trading going in out of Greece. Furthermore, I also believe Eurozone ministers will not allow Greece to leave because if Greece left we could see other countries follow suit and therefore this would in my opinion be the start of the end for the Eurozone. Therefore if all is resolved with Greece in the upcoming weeks the uncertainty will be eliminated and again I think this will push the exchange rate back towards 1.35.

If you are purchasing a property abroad in the upcoming weeks/ months it may be wise to buy your Euros now. If you waiting for your house to sell for example there is an option where you secure the rate today and pay later. This is known as a forward contract. For more information feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk or alternatively call 01494 725 353 and quote Dayle Littlejohn.

When should I sell my Euros for pounds? Euro selling opportunity!

I think that if you need to sell euros for sterling you are currently looking at an excellent opportunity. Selling euros has been a stress in 2015 as the Eurozone launched their QE programme and Greece has been back in the headlines. It seems that those issues are unlikley to go away and the Euro is going to continue to be under pressure. With that in mind if you need to sell Euros for the pound moving sooner during the uncertainty of the UK’s General Election seems sensible.

I can help with the planning and execution of any international money transfers you need to make. As well as offer an exchange rate better than your bank we can also help with the timing of any currency exchange. For more information please contact me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro strong week ahead? (Tom Holian)

With Sterling Euro exchange rates ending the week on a high breaking through 1.38 on mid-market level this has provided another excellent opportunity to buy Euros with Sterling.

The FOMC minutes from the US suggested that an interest rate hike could happen in June which prompted Dollar strength and led to the Euro weakening.

Typically if the Dollar strengthens this leads to global investors selling Euros and buying Dollars resulting in Euro weakness.

Next week we see the release of inflation data in the UK and arguably more importantly the ECB interest rate decision due on Wednesday.

Although I do not expect to see any change in policy I think it will be extremely important to see what Mario Draghi says at the press conference.

It is in the interest of the Eurozone to keep the single currency weak in order to  promote spending within the Eurozone and to keep Eurozone exports competitive.

Therefore, I think Wednesday could provide an excellent buying opportunity if you need to exchange Sterling into Euros.

With the election campaign gaining pace it is widely expected that Sterling will begin to fall over the next few weeks as this is what happened during the pevious election when we saw a hung parliament.

This caused Sterling to fall dramatically which means if you do need to buy Euros during the next few weeks you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to fix exchange rates for the future based on current prices.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

GBP/EUR Sterling Holding Firm (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR is still sitting around the 1.38 mark offering very favorable levels for the Euro buyer. The GDP estimate was released to day and came out as anticipated at 0.6% causing little market movement.

The election is currently wide open, said to be the closest General Election in the last one hundred years. Looking back at the 2010 election we saw Sterling drop nearly seven cents against the Euro. There has been very few troughs Sterling as of yet. It is possible that the Eurozone could be in a worse state of affairs than first thought.

Personally, if I was planning a large Euro purchase I would be moving now. It could prove costly to hang on. 1.38 is not to be sniffed at when six-seven months ago you would be buying at 1.27.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

Pound Euro Exchange Forecast – When to BUY Euros? ( Andrew Bromley )

The Pound has enjoyed an additional period of strength following the Easter Bank holiday weekend. This has been largely linked to a huge deal to buy British Oil exploration firm ‘BG Group’. The deal would see a purchase of £47 Bn, strengthening the Pound substantially. This Pound strength tied with the Euro weakness from yet more Greek bailout talks has helped push levels surprisingly high. Alexis Tsipras (the Greek Prime Minister) is in Russia this week, discussing the current bailout terms. A €448 Million loan repayment to the IMF due today. If there’s any indication that Greece will stall, expect substantial and swift Euros losses. However, as much as the papers print the worst case scenarios surrounding the Greek bailout, I personally don’t feel that Greece will be allowed to leave. The Russian link is a curious one as there are several (tenuous!) potential trade offs that could play out. The first and perhaps most memorable to UK clients is Russia’s involvement with the financial crash in Cyprus 2013. Just prior to Cyprus announcing it was bankrupt, the equivalent to billions of Russian Euros left the island back to Russia, leading conspiracy theorists to indicate Russian money was propping up their economy. The second concern would be for of land exchange. Would Russia part with large sums of money to have another sea port in Europe to park its warships? We saw the annexation of Crimea, would a small uninhabited Greek Island (available at a small cost to the Russians) be a useful trade off? Both are speculation, however the ideas are not new so should be in the back of Euro buyers and sellers minds.

If you have a currency requirement, please feel free to get in touch. Holders of the Pound should be wary of potential losses in the build up to the general election. If you are buying a property overseas, serious consideration should be given to ‘forward buying’ your currency. Feel free to contact me directly if you’d like to discuss a requirement, the direct line to the trading floor is 01494 787 478. Alternatively, drop me an email to AJB@currencies.co.uk

look forward to hearing from you!

Andrew Bromley

Sterling rockets against the Euro providing excellent buying opportunities (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have picked up by over 1% today as the news from the US Federal Reserve is that they appear worried about the strength of the US Dollar.

Sterling has continued to rally throughout the day against the single currency as the Fed minutes are also due this evening.

The minutes could see the Fed hint at raising interest rates during the summer which could see Dollar strength and Euro weakness and this could see the markets for buying Euros get even better overnight.

Longer term with the uncertainty surrounding the UK election we could see Sterling fall so if you have a requirement to buy Euros during the next few weeks you may wish to get something organised over the next few days.

The UK interest rate decision is due tomorrow at midday and if governor Mark Carney decides to speak we could see further volatility with GBPEUR exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

GBP-EUR Rates – Back into 1.37! (Joshua Privett)

The Euro has been unexpectedly hit once more by the almost theatrical demands of the Greek Government yesterday. Most believed these issues had been swept under the rug, ready to emerge in another 4 months when another extension would likely be required. Then Tsipras, Greece’s Prime Minister, publicly declared that Greece was owed 279 Billion Euros from the German Government for war reparations.

The audacity is both amazing and sad. To see Greece pushed into such a corner that they would demand money, in a very insensitive manner, from their largest creditor (free) represents just how dire the situation is. It’s no coincidence that this value is a full 49 Bn Euros more than Greece’s total debt. Trying to actual make a profit from this claim, is the hardest to understand in this whole debacle.

As a result the Euro has weakened. Sterling was on a course to head down to the low 1.30′s due to the uncertainty of the election. But now this is thrown into doubt. This may still happen later in the month, but certainly in the short term, Euro buyers are enjoying some respite.

Contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss your personal situation in more detail.

Will the Election harm Sterling Exchange Rates? (Tom Holian)

With the election campaign now fully in swing we are in line for a huge amount of volatility for Sterling Euro exchange rates over the next few weeks.

Sterling crashed against the Euro on Friday owing to a big slowdown in UK construction which sources have suggested owes itself to the uncertainty of who will get into power in May.

Builders have delayed their decision and will continue to do so which could result in this sector really feeling the effects over the next couple of months.

With Sterling having remained high against the Euro for a few weeks and hitting an 8 year high in early March I think the Pound could be set for further falls over the next few weeks.

The problem for the British economy is that if the Pound is too strong this tends to have a detrimental effect on British exports which ultimately will lead to less money coming into the UK and therefore a fall in the value of Sterling.

It has been announced by the Greek finance minister that the next IMF bailout payment which is due for April 9th will be paid by the Greeks on time. The loan amount is EUR450mn which is no small figure and them demonstrating that they can afford the repayments can only be seen as a good thing for the Euro which could lead to further drops in GBPEUR exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk