Sterling forecast 2011
Sterling Exchange rates this year have moved a lot with swings over 16% against the euro and 14% against the US dollar. This highlights the importance of timing transfers as even over the last 2 months an additional USD 15,080 or EURO 15,140 would have be achieved on a £200,000 transfer if you bought at the peak rather than the low.
Next year I think there are a number of large stories that could shape exchange rates.
Firstly the introduction of budget cuts in January across the UK. This ranges from the VAT rise to fuel cost and efficiency target on every area of government. Many are expecting a large increase in unemployment and hence consumer confidence, all key to the outlook of sterling.
Secondly sterling has a vast amount of exposure to the euro zone debt crises so if any other state was to fall and need support that additional money out of the economy is not going to help.
Third we have the issues the Bank of England has with the inflation levels in the UK. Normally this is counted by raising interest rates however this could cause problems with the housing market, and unemployment levels further.
Finally we have the coalition government. Over the last few weeks the government has again come under pressure and could theoretically add political uncertainty which generally weakens the currency in question. Add the above points and how the cracking government handles what’s being called broken Britain and it makes next year very uncertain.
If you are looking or planning to send money abroad next year you also have to look at the currency that you are buying, the other side of the coin and each have their own problems. The US is having major issues with unemplyment, the euro has its debt crises, but most of the other majors have natural resources that continue to be in demand so are gaining making them more expensive to buy. If you would like more information about a particular currency pair then feel free to contact us.