Euro Rate Forecast

Many analysts were expecting a strong response from Mario Draghi (the head of the European Central Bank) after he openly stated he would do ‘whatever it takes’ to secure the future of the Euro late last week. However this was not to be the and the strong Euro movements prior to the ECB interest rate meeting and press conference to follow were soon wiped out by the close yesterday with GBP/EUR back up to the 1.2750 territory and USD/EUR closing at 1.2150. The announcement from Draghi that the ECB would look to come up with ways to help the struggling eurozone ‘over the coming weeks’ was certainly viewed as delaying tactics and somewhat of a disappointment with the currency and stock markets reacting badly as a result. Draghi said the high yields on some eurozone government bonds were unacceptable, adding that the recent bond buying programme the bank have been adopting will resume but would follow a different path. He said the new scheme would involve shorter term bonds, removing the risks undertaken from longer bonds in which the debt has to be guaranteed over a longer period.

As mentioned the result of yesterday’s conference was disappointing for many and I think really highlights the difficult situation the ECB and the eurozone finds itself in. We have been down this road before with the ECB actively seeming to support the Euro but then providing little or no solutions and I fear that this trend is continuing – because of this I would not be surprised to see GBP/EUR head back towards the 4 year high of 1.2850 and EUR/USD to break though the 1.21 level (I think this will meet strong resistance at the 1.20 mark).

Data to end the week

Anyone looking to buy or sell Euros today should keep any eye on the following data sets:

10:00 BST we have Eurozone Retail figures – these are expected to show a contraction month on month and may heap further pressure on the Euro this morning.

13:30 – Importantly for anyone with an interest in EUR/USD watch out for non-farm payroll data. This shows all those officially on the payroll excluding agricultural businesses and is viewed as an important indicator of the US economy. This can swing US dollar rates and might be one to avoid.

Should you wish to discuss the current market trends or to seek an opinion or an upcoming transfer you have then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk and I will more than happily pass on my views. Having worked in the currency market for over 6 years I have a degree of market knowledge that I can happily pass onto you to try and help you time your exchange. Current market conditions are very volatile and it is not uncommon to see swings well in excess of 1% on a daily basis – impacting the cost of your transfer dramatically. For this reason it is of upmost importance to have the right tools and data available to help maximise your exchange. As a specialist currency broker I have a number of tools available to help you achieve your target price. To run through your options in more detail then please email me at mgv@currencies.co.uk or call the office asking for Mike on 01494 787478.