Monthly Archives: January 2013

Euro Exchange Rate Forecast – How high will the Euro rate go? (Ben Amrany)

We are currently looking at EUR/GBP & EUR/USD rates thinking how much stronger can the Euro get. Even when Spain showed that their GDP had contracted the Euro still continued to gain against the pound and USD. We have been reviewing  our forecasts, as previously we stated that if the rate fell against the pound below 1.20 we felt there would be a resistance level of 1.17. Now that the Euro has been lingering below this level (1.1650) we feel the next test will be the 1.15 point. This is where many investors will have limit orders in the market to sell their Euros. How long it takes to reach this level is difficult to predict but the amount of sterling weakness across the board coupled with the Euro strength leads us to believe that this could occur. The pound may just surprise us and rebound so you should always be extremely cautious as things can turn around very quickly.

If you are planning on selling Euros to buy sterling the 5.5% movement in your favour since mid-end of December is a great return on your funds. If you were selling €200,000 now compared to 4 weeks ago then you would be achieving and around £10,000 more now.  This is a fantastic return in the space of a month and I would imagine that most of you who have Euros to sell were more than likely banking on rates of around 1.23-1.25. If you want to capitalise on the favourable rates and do not want to take the risk with your funds then please feel free to contact me for a quote at bma@currencies.co.uk. We will always strive to beat any rates you are quoted by your bank or any other broker. Please leave me your contact details and I will contact you straight away to discuss the options that are available to you. Plus we will give you a very personal service which you just will not get from any bank.

This morning the Euro has been very range bound as Germany posted slightly better than expected unemployment figures. The data showed that unemployment dropped to 6.8% but the markets were expecting to see the figures at 6.9%. This should bring a little more strength to the Euro.

Potentially the biggest market mover of the day for the Euro could be in the form of German Inflation data out at 1pm this afternoon. Figures are expected to come out at 2% for the year and a drop of -0.4 % for the month. Should the data come out not as anticipated then you could find some volatility with the rates in the lead up to the weekend.

Should you have a requirement to buy or sell the Euro please do feel free to contact us for our opinion on the markets and the rates of exchange that we can offer. We deal with all the major currencies and you can find that savings over your bank can amount to as much as 4%

Thank you for reading.

Ben Amrany

 

Euro reaches 14 month high against GBP and US dollar. Has the Euro reached its peak?

Euro exchange rate have continued their recent assault on the currency market bringing levels against the Pound and US dollar to 14 month highs. Will this continue?

To me it is all a little surprising how far the Euro has moved, sure if you look at the fundamentals behind the UK and our European counterparts, yes the data has been poor from the UK but surely we are still in a better position than Europe? One could argue that Mervyn King (head of the Bank of England) its getting his way as he has been open in calling for a weaker pound to improve the UK’s exports, he is also notorious for talking down the UK’s chances of short term recovery whereas Mr Draghi (his counterpart at the European Central Bank) is often far more bullish when it comes to European finances. For me this is somewhat of a facade and I for one feel this pair is due a correction heading back towards the 1.20 territory. Should you be selling Euros, for this reason, and whilst levels are not far from a 14 month high, it may well be worth considering your options – this may include the use of a forward contract allowing you to guarantee your position even if you do not have full availability of your funds.

As for EUR/USD I think this too will see a correction short term moving back towards 1.33. The dollar then may well come under further pressure when the US debt ceiling deadline draws near come April.

If you would like updates on the market, register your interest by emailing me with your particular currency requirements (contact details, currency pair, volume and time frames). I would be happy to run through my current forecasts and to provide you with a quote for your upcoming exchange. I can be reached at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

France is ‘bankrupt’, Spain is in a deeper recession than thought – how far will GBPEUR drop before it recovers?

The Euro has made further gains against sterling as uncertainty over the UK persists. Even news today the Spanish economy has shrunk more than expected and an increase in UK mortgage approvals has not helped the rate.

Why is GBPEUR suffering? Big improvements in the outlook in the Eurozone are causing investors to pull their funds out of the ‘safe haven’ sterling and into other assets offering better returns. Stocks and shares, other currencies and quite simply anything that gives a better return than UK bonds is being bought.

Even news yesterday of France being described as bankrupt has done little to dent confidence. The improved confidence across Europe stems from a lowering of the cost of borrowing for Spain and Italy. Previously safe haven funds in the UK are being moved to the much better returns of Spanish and Italian bonds. European stock markets were surprisingly some of the best investments in 2012, this too could be the case for 2013.

“the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro – and believe me, it will be enough.”

This statement by Mario Draghi last year is underpinning confidence. The money flooding into European government bonds, stocks and banks is causing the Euro to hold firm. If you are holding on hoping GBPEUR will suddenly go back to 1.20 or even 1.25 quickly this statement is a very important reason to reconsider your position…

I expect GBPEUR will continue to suffer and will soon hit 1.15, particularly with a new month and a whole new set of economic data on the front. Sterling will at some point recover but some would argue it is in the government’s interest to have a weak pound (to make exports more attractive) and this grey cloud of possible EU exit hanging over the UK will do little to boost investment in the UK. Trends on currency markets form over many months and this trend looks likley to persist for some time.

Currently we are at a one year low for GBPEUR, the situation could easily deteriorate further. To make the most of your currency transfers please feel free to contact me directly. I can provide all the information to make an informed decision on when to make your transfer even if it is a one off. Our specialist service has also been proven to offer the very best rates, only yesterday I saved a new client already dealing with another company nearly £750 within half an hour of contacting me.

You can speak with me Jonny directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478

I look forward to hearing from you

 

I just saved a new client £744.74 against another currency broker!

Anyone reading this site who is fairly savvy on transferring money abroad may think that we are just ‘another currency broker’ and that they are all the same.

Well at 10.30 today I had a new client contact me buying €210,000 on a forward contract. He was already dealing with another company and wanted to check if he was getting the best deal. Lucky he did! One e-mail and 35 minutes later, he was £744.74 better off!

Even if you have been dealing with another company for some time a quick call or email to us could save you money. Just like car insurance, shopping around on your currency can save you money.

For a free no obligation discussion of your exchange please feel free to contact me Jonny directly on 01494 787 478, or email jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you and genuinely saving you money!

 

Will GBPEUR get back up to 1.20?

The current trend of GBPEUR falling may for the time being have stalled but it is unlikely we will see the kind of resurgence needed to get back up to 1.20. I actually expect GBPEUR could drop by another cent or two in the next couple of weeks.

If you are a Euro buyer it is worth remembering the poor state of the UK’s finances, it looks likely the UK will continue to suffer this month and for much of the rest of the year. Quite simply the coalition’s growth plans are not working and there is a very real prospect of the UK leaving the EU.

How can I protect myself? The best way to protect yourself from unfavourable market movements is to look at all your options. There is a high chance that GBPEUR will now actually start to climb lower rather than go up.

Eurozone worries which crept into the market last year have all but evaporated. If you are looking at making a transfer involving buying Euros I can help explain to you what is happening right now and why. This will help you to make an informed decision about when to trade and means that you don’t unnecessarily lose money.

The GBPEUR rate has dropped 6.04% since the start of 2013. Buying €100,000 is now nearly £5000 more expensive than it was at the end of December.

For free information on what is moving your exchange rate and assistance with achieving the best price, you can make an enquiry here with me Jonny Watson. Even if your transfer is a one off I am confident I can provide information and a rate much better than the banks or other sources  that will save you money.

Please feel free to speak with me directly jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with me Jonny. Quite simply if we could not offer better rates, we would not be in business!

I look forward to hearing from you and making sure you get a good deal

The best Euro rates for 1 year against the pound. (Ben Amrany)

The Euro has once again continued to strengthen against the pound and has now spiked at over a year high. The main contributing factor was how the UK economy now seems to be in a triple dip recession. UK GDP figures showed a contraction for the last three months of 2012 to -0.3% This was below analysts expectations and on the back of this we witnessed the pound hit a low of 1.1713.

It has not only been sterling weakness that has contributed to the gain for the Euro. Today we had the president of the ECB speaking stating that the ECB outlined three “extraordinary” steps taken by European leaders and institutions to battle the three-year sovereign debt crisis that has pitched the 17-nation bloc into recession. Governments have pushed through structural reforms with “urgency” and these are “now bearing fruit,” said the ECB boss. European leaders had recognised structural flaws inherent in the single currency and were now pushing for greater integration.

This all helped the Euro to gain against most majors but anyone with a requirement to sell the single currency should bear in mind that Europe are from having their issues all resolved. There is certainly more scope for the Euro to continue to gain but be cautious as these are the best levels for a year.

If you are interested in finding out what we feel will happen for GBP/EUR or if you have a requirement to buy or sell the Euro over the coming weeks/months please feel free to contact me with your contact details and what your requirement is and I will call you to explain the options that are available to you.

You may contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk

Ben Amrany

EUR Rates Surge Again but Spanish Unemployment Figures a Major Concern (Matthew Vassallo)

EUR sellers won’t believe there luck at the moment, as once again the single currency has surged against GBP and the USD during Thursdays trading, moving over a cent and half a cent respectively. This positive movement has been an ongoing trend for the past couple of weeks and the temptation for those holding EUR must now be to wait and ‘see how far it can go’. Personally I did not expect to see so much movement so quickly and although it is impossible to say that the EUR won’t strengthen further, I do feel inclined to play devils advocate when it comes to any dramatic improvement within the region. When it comes to the eurozone economy and its recovery, I am certainly of the opinion that once bitten, twice shy.

The movement we have seen in the past two weeks on GBP/EUR rates means that anyone who needs to make a 200,000 EUR/GBP transfer today, would receive over £8,000 more than they would have done on the same transfer two weeks ago. I think we would all struggle to find an investment that produced that return within a two week period and it is also important to remember that it is very rare to see rates move so quickly and so dramatically.

I am also wary of the fact that the eurozone economy has many pitfalls to negotiate before we can really say it is on the road to recovery and when you read reports that unemployment amongst the young in Spain has hit a staggering 55%, it certianly makes you question how afluent the leading economies within the eurozone can be. This figure highlights how unsteady the recovery is and for that reason the movement we have seen against the USD but in particular GBP, would seriously make me consider my position if I had a EUR requirement.

Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have a team of specialist currency brokers experienced in ensuring client’s currency exchanges are handled in the most appropriate fashion. We can assist not just with unbeatable commercial rates but also a highly personal service, designed to give you as much insight into the market as possible so that you may time your trade to perfection. As a UK plc that has been trading for almost 13 years, we have won awards from The Sunday Times and Telegraph for our rates and service. Ultimately we save our client’s money by offering superior rates of exchange compared to the banks and other currency outlets and also provide key market analysis in the build-up to any transfer.

If you would like to find out the type of rates we can offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or call me 0044 1494 787 478.

 

What do you think will happen on the exchange rate this month?

Here at eurorateforecast.com we aim to provide our clients with news and information to help them save money on currency exchanges.

We hope you find the information helpful and useful and always welcome any feedback from clients on perhaps what they think may happen too!

Maybe you think dangerous times for Greece and Spain are just around the corner? Maybe you think Mario Draghi has done more than enough to restore confidence in the Euro and the worries of the last few years are no longer valid?

Why not post a comment below or make an enquiry detailing what you expect to happen? We can then revisit the page in the future and see who is right.

For any information on the markets or to discuss your exchanges with a specialist please contact me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk

What can we expect on GBPEUR now?

GBPEUR rates have fallen as heavily and perhaps as unexpectedly as the snow coating much of the UK. And just like the snow with such conditions these levels may be hard to shift.

Looking at the recent trend we have not seen anything wholly unexpected. The gravity of such a decline on GBPEUR has been quite severe but with the Eurozone getting its house in order and the UK economy once again faltering it is not too difficult to explain why rates are where they are.

Time for a correction? This is probably now due. Such a sharp move of over 3% in a short space of time means there is highly likely to be profit taking next week which could well push GBPEUR back above 1.20. GBPEUR buyers who are craving 1.22, 1.23 or higher may find themselves lucky to get 1.20 next week. GBPEUR sellers who are pleased with the last week’s movements should prepare for this move too as it would be such a shame to miss out on these great levels. The month of January has been very volatile on the markets so far and only half way through there is still plenty on the horizon that could affect rates. The last week’s GBPEUR decline caught many off guard and shows you can never be complacent when dealing with exchange rates…

Should you be considering a bank to bank currency transfer involving the Euro or any other currency we are specialist currency brokers assisting private clients and businesses with information on what may affect the rate in the future as well as an extremely good price when they do enter the market. We write the site for the benefit of our clients but always welcome new enquiries. Even if your transfer is a one off getting a second opinion and checking out your options could save you time and money. For further information please feel free to contact me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

 

 

Euro continues its gains against GBP and USD. (Ben Amrany)

The Euro has continued today with gains against both the pound and the US Dollar. There seems to be nothing currently getting in the way of the strong Euro even with controversy between ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny and Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker’s.

Juncker has this week that he is concerned about the strength of the Euro but Nowotny has stated that the ECB targets price stability rather than exchange rates. This coming from an ECB member has once again boosted the Euro with rates up 0.25% against GBP and 0.15% against the USD.

Looking forward for those that have Euros to sell to buy pound sterling I think that there will be a resistance level of 0.8333 (1.20) You will find that as the rate hits that level many limit orders will be filled from investors capitalising on their gains. If you do have Euros to sell then rates may just be spiking at present and compared to where we were just 1-2 months ago the levels are extremely attractive. If you would like to compare our rates or find out the service that we provide to help you maximise your currency conversion please email me with your enquiry at bma@currencies.co.uk

Over the next couple of days the markets will eagerly be awaiting comments from the UK Prime Minister David Cameron on all things Europe.

The PM is to speak in Europe to set out plans on how the UK will repatriate some powers from Brussels to Britain. We believe his plans would then give the public a referendum on whether they back the new relationship. The vote may not happen though for 4-5 years.

However the much anticipated speech has meant that the pound has weakened against the Euro for over a week now because of the uncertainty it is bringing over the UK’s membership of the European Union.

Nobody really knows how the market will react to the PM’s comments so if you have a transfer coming up you may wish to keep in contact with us so we can be your eyes and ears on the market.

As I am sure you are all aware there are numerous reasons why the pound rises and falls against numerous currencies over the course of a day. This website is aimed at giving you a brief understanding into the state of the Euro on a given day. I appreciate that you do not all have time to watch the markets all day, everyday but I will be happy to keep you informed of the market movements to do with the currency pair that you require.

If you need to buy or sell any major currency and would like to know more about our outlook for the currency you need and how we can make you a significant saving on your exchange please feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will come back to you with the options that are available to you.

Thank you for reading.

Ben Amrany

GBP Rallies Against the EUR Following Heavy Loses (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP rallied during Tuesdays trading, bringing some welcome repsite to all those who have been watching their positons dwindle duing a hectic 72 hours for GBP/EUR exchange rates. The euro had strengthened to a nine month high against the Pound, only to relinquish some of that ground by the close of European trading.

I have always felt that whilst we were trading above 1.20 on GBP/EUR, clients were doing a bit better than they should have been and it will be a harsh realisation for some, who were committed to waiting for rates of 1.25 or above.

Whilst it is very difficult to predict future fluctuations on GBP/EUR, I do believe that any move back towards 1.21-1.22, should be seen as a major positive for EUR buyers. Those expecting rates to tumble back to the lows we experienced towards the end of 2011 (1.10), need only look at the fragile state of the eurozone economies to realise this is highly unlikely. Personally I would be looking at 1.20 as a benchmark for the pair as we move through Q1 of 2013. If I had the opportunity to buy EUR above 1.20 then I would certainly consider it and similarly if EUR sellers can get a rate below 1.20 then this is historically a very attractive level.

Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have a team of specialist currency brokers experienced in ensuring client’s currency exchanges are handled in the most appropriate fashion. We can assist not just with unbeatable commercial rates but also a highly personal service, designed to give you as much insight into the market as possible so that you may time your trade to perfection. As a UK plc that has been trading for almost 13 years, we have won awards from The Sunday Times and Telegraph for our rates and service. Ultimately we save our client’s money by offering superior rates of exchange compared to the banks and other currency outlets and also provide key market analysis in the build-up to any transfer.

If you would like to find out the type of rates we can offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or call me 0044 1494 787 478.

Strong Euro moves surprise many… Is Mario Draghi the most powerful man in the world?

They do not call him ‘Super Mario’ for nothing. Mario Draghi has the power to move markets. I think anyone who is considering a transfer for the Euro this year should be aware of this. You could argue his comments are the most important reason for the shift on GBPEUR from 1.2860 to 1.2011 in 6 months. And EURUSD has moved from 1.2065 to 1.34 in the same time frame.

Euro buyers who have ignored us and assume that GBPEUR and EURUSD would get better ‘just because there are strikes in Greece’ are today paying the price for ignoring the more fundamental reasons for Euro movements we continue to highlight

SO the million Euro question is will the Euro keep climbing against sterling and the dollar? Will we break 1.20 on GBPEUR? Well it is looking quite likely. With so many hurdles for sterling ahead even if we do hear some bad news for the euro, the pound looks unlikely to capitalise.

The change in sentiment is astonishing and is a good indicator of what any Euro buyers or sellers can expect in the future. The ‘stabilisation’ seen by the European Central Bank in the Eurozone is likely to remain in the short term. The banking regulations and lower borrowing costs of Spain and Italy make progress for Euro members more likely. The fact that Mario Draghi and members of the ECB will do ‘whatever it takes’ is a huge boost for the Euro. Euro buyers who have ignored that statement and assume that GBPEUR and EURUSD will become better ‘because there are strikes in Greece’ are today paying the price for ignoring the more fundamental reasons for Euro movements.

If you are selling Euros the market is excellent right now, for many it is at a level that they perhaps did not expect. Whilst further improvement for Euro sellers are likely, last week’s 3 cent moves proves no rates should be taken for granted.

Even if your transfer is just a one off or you have never moved large sums before bank to bank, speaking with us is a great way of ensuring you maximise your money transfer. We offer a commercial exchange rate better than the banks and other brokers plus we offer assistance on when may be a good time to exchange. I predicted back in September we would soon hit 1.20 and have been suggesting any Euro buyers purchase sooner rather than later. Anyone who failed to buy Euros last week and is still waiting to now is on a €200,000 transfer looking at a £4500 extra cost! If this is you do not wholly despair as we can save you that kind of cost versus the bank and depending on your timescales you could see small spikes to take advantage of. You probably need to act fast however…

If you are buying or selling Euros last weeks movements are really important. Even if your transfer is just a one off you can speak with me directly for free on 01494 787 478 or email me Jonny directly at jmw@currencies.co.uk

I always go that extra mile for my clients and am confident I can get you a better deal on your Euros.