The Euro is set for a rollercoaster ride in the run up to Christmas. Campaigning in the Spanish regional elections started this week with a vote in Catalonia to be held 21st December. One of the candidates is campaigning from prison whilst the deposed Catalonian leader Carles Puigdemont will be co-ordinating his campaign from Belgium after he left Spain on charges of sedition, rebellion and misuse of public funds.
The election result is expected to be extremely close and this is likely to see considerable volatility for Euro exchange rates. Any move that pushes towards independence for Catalonia could see considerable volatility for Euro exchange rates the Euro and potential weakness for the single currency.
GBP EUR is seeing an immensely volatile week with ongoing Brexit negotiations which have reached a stalemate situation. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are unhappy with the terminology of “regulatory alignment” and will not accept a situation where a border would move between Britain and Northern Ireland in the Irish Sea. The EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier has now given a 48 hour deadline to agree a text on a potential deal or negotiations will not move on the next stage. Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to give fresh proposals later today and there is likely to be a big market reaction on any news.
If the deadlock can be broken then the pound could see a sizeable shift higher against the Euro although there is still a very real risk of a no deal scenario. A breakthrough could see a short term window of opportunity and a good buy opportunity for clients looking to buy Euros.
Those who have a requirement to either buy or sell Euros would be wise to get in touch to discuss the likely impact these events will have on currency transfers. Please feel free to contact me James at firstname.lastname@example.org