Italian Political uncertainty could weaken the Euro
There has been little reaction to the upcoming Italian elections in the markets at present. Polls suggest there will not be an outright victor, the likelihood is that a coalition will have to be formed. The coalition formed will influence the value of the Euro. With several parties involved it will be difficult to push through any breaking legislation, if this is the case this may stop any significant Euro weakness.
The most probable outcome is a centre right coalition which includes Forza Italia, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s party. Despite being banned from office his influence and support will definitely assist in his party gaining some form of power.
Other parties involved are far-right and anti EU, some are anti-globalisation and anti-immigrant particularly the Brothers of Italy and the Northern League.
Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question, but I think the coalition will prevent a move for a referendum to leave the EU which would be the biggest threat to the Euro. If you are a Euro buyer I would not necessarily hang on for this event to create an opportunity.
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