Having looked at recent market data and political issues i would not be surprised to see the Euro lose a little ground against Sterling in the coming days and weeks.
There are various reasons why I believe this, yesterday comments by Chancellor Philip Hammond suggested that the outlook for the U.K economy potentially wasn’t as bad as had been originally predicted some time ago, and most notably that wage growth is expected to come back in line with inflation by Spring 2019, this has been a real sticking point for the Bank of England for quite some time now.
Wage growth being below inflation causes real problems for an economy, if the cost of goods and services is going up faster than the pace of consumers earnings then they will essentially have less money in their pocket and this then leads to less money being out there and economic growth creeping down, it also hold back interest rate hikes too.
On top of this we still have the issues over in Italy to iron out which could cause more problems for the Eurozone than it has so far, there are still various groups failing to come close to any agreement on a coalition which I feel will not change in the near term and this could cause political uncertainty which may damage the Euro if not resolved.
Later this week we have European inflation figures out on Friday morning which will also be important for Euro exchange rates as it may impact when the European Central Bank aim to taper their QE program along with any movement on interest rates, which it does appear will not be changed until 2019.
All this in mind, along with the potential for Brexit news or trade talks that could lift Sterling I would not be surprised to see GBP/EUR rates come back up to the 1.15 level (0.8695) in the coming weeks.
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