GBP/EUR – We have seen gains for Sterling in the last 24hrs due to chief EU Brexit Neogitiator, Michel Barnier’s comments. He stated that it was realistic that a Brexit deal could be in place in 6-8 weeks. We saw GBP/EUR hit a several week high of 1.1241.
Personally I feel this is no great shakes it differs very little from the current Brexit time line, although it does show a willingness to get a deal in place. I do take what he says with a pinch of salt following his recent comments , he had said that the UK would be looking at a bespoke deal which caused a Sterling spike and then he quickly retracted his comments and Sterling fell.
I think while there is still the possibility of a “no deal scenario” the Pound will not make significant gains against the Euro. Trade secretary, Liam Fox has sad he field there is a 60% chance of a “no deal” and Reuters are at 25%.
QE – Quantitative Easing is pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. The European Central Bank have indicated that the current QE program pumping in billions per month will cease by the end of 2018. This could change however and QE could be extended. Growth and inflation data has been poor, if this continues QE could be extended. On Thursday following the ECB interest rate decision a press conference will be held and future monetary policy is discussed. If a hint is given away about a QE extension we could see the Euro lose value, please note however this is a long shot, but investors will be waiting with baited breath.
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