GBP/EUR – GBP/EUR will largely be dictated by Brexit. Investors are still reluctant to purchase the pound due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit. While there is still the prospect of a “no deal” I feel the pound will have difficulty making any significant gains.
The key points of contention are the Irish border and access to the customs union. If their is clarity provided on either of these matters I would expect Sterling make significant gains. Sterling is chronically undervalued considering pre-Brexit GBP/EUR sat above 1.42.
I expect volatility as talks intensify with both sides pulling out all of their ammunition in an attempt to get the best deal for their respective sides. I think the EU are making things particularity difficult, not only for monetary gain, but also to warn off other EU members leaving. A domino effect could cause the EU to collapse.
If you are sitting on Euros I would take advantage of current levels, despite the posturing I feel a deal will be put in place. I do not think it will be before the 18th October deadline, it is an open kept secret that there will be an emergency summit in mid November to get a deal in place.
I think there is potential to achieve better levels for Euro sellers between now and a deal being agreed, but looking at risk vs reward I would not be gambling.
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