The EUR has looked fragile of late and this could be the running theme of 2019, with Eurozone growth forecasts uninspiring and unlikely to help support any major upturns for the single currency.
It wasn’t long ago that the EUR was outperforming the majority of its major currency counterparts but with cracks appearing in some of the Eurozone powerhouse economies, this trend was always likely to reverse. The economic problems in Italy have been well documented for months, whilst the escalating political stand-off in France, which see’s President Macron continue to alienate himself from vast sways of voters, is also starting to weigh heavily on investor risk appetite.
However, it is in Germany, which remains the powerhouse and engine room of the Eurozone, where the economic slowdown could start to have a very real ripple effect across the entire Eurozone region.
Add to this the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to tie up their Quantitative Easing (QE) programme and there is a growing concern that the EUR could be in for a tough run over the coming months.
Looking at GBP/EUR rates and despite the EUR finding plenty of support around the 1.16 level, the Pound still managed to make inroads despite a complete lack of confidence in the UK economy and ultimately the Pound. The on-going uncertainty surrounding Brexit has acte as a buffer for the EUR and any significant downturn in recent months but with a no-deal scenario now looking less likely, could the Pound be in line for further improvements?
Whilst I wouldn’t be banking on a major upturn for Sterling, I also feel that unless the UK ultimately leaves the EU with no-deal in place, it is unlikely that the EUR will make inroads back towards 1.10 and could ultimately see its value slip further.
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