If you’re buying euros, it may interest you to know that Pound to Euro exchange rates have rallied higher to start the week. Rates for the GBP to EUR pair are pushing back towards the 1.17 level it touched last week.
There is currently an excellent opportunity to buy Euros, with some of the best levels for GBP vs EUR available for 2 years. Much of the positive movement has arisen from improved optimism that a deal between Britain and the EU over Brexit will be reached.
The markets are taking the general view that a no deal will be averted, which has been the biggest concern ever since the 2016 referendum. There appears to be some softening in position from Conservative members, who want to see a suitable solution to the contentious Irish backstop, so that Britain can unilaterally leave should it ever come into force.
More meetings continue to be held with the UK attorney general Geoffrey Cox, who is trying to find a compromise with the EU. Any breakthrough would likely see the Pound rally higher against the Euro, although to date the task is proving considerably difficult.
Euro weakness: Retail sales could indicate Eurozone economic health
The European Central Bank meet this Thursday to discuss interest rates and this could create some volatility for the Euro. The ECB concluded its Quantitative Easing programme at the end of last year, but since then the economic data has been weaker than hoped.
Italy has fallen into recession once again whilst Germany have narrowly avoided going into one. Also, France is under the spotlight with weaker growth and ongoing political concerns, which have arisen from the protests by the “gilets jaunes”.
The question for the European Central Bank is whether growth will pick up in the spring to give the economy a boost and whether the central bank can wait and hope for some positive data.
The ECB may need to have some ammunition ready and could signal its readiness to stimulate growth if needed, what with some of the EU’s biggest economies now struggling, and the wider implications of the trade war between the US and China, as well as Brexit. Such commentary would likely see Euro weakness. EU retail sales are released tomorrow morning and may also give some clues as to the health of the Eurozone economy.
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