If you’d like to know when to buy Euros, it may be of interest to you to know that GBP/EUR continues to be dictated by Brexit. The revised deadline is set for 12th April and the UK is again running out of time to agree a deal with the EU or arrange a further extension.
If another extension is granted by the EU it could be for a longer term, which could have stipulations. However, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is hoping that negotiations with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will go well, and that he’ll give his support. If so, May will request a shorter extension from the EU later this week and will continue to attempt to gain concessions from Brussels.
This is May’s preferred option, but one that will not sit well with leavers. This is because any deal with Labour is likely to be centred on the UK remaining in the EU Customs Union, which is controversial to say the least. This will be extremely tough to get a majority in the House of Commons, due to the large number of Conservatives being vocally unhappy with this option.
Is the Euro going up or down against the Pound?
Brexit remains in Limbo and GBP/EUR remains range bound. The fact that it remains above 1.15 can only be attributed to the belief that a no deal is not a likely scenario. An extension, which I feel is the likely outcome, could cause a slight strengthening in the Pound, due to an ease in investor concern. That said, do not expect any great shakes.
May has now failed to get her deal through after three attempts, and the Labour option is proving divisive. With Brussels playing hard ball, it seems there is nowhere to go.
Many press releases have recently mentioned Operation Yellowhammer. This is the contingency plan should a no deal scenario occur, and does not make for good reading. It looks at 12 key areas that could be affected, such as healthcare, transport, energy, food and water.
I am confident that an extension will be granted. However, if it is not then Britain will leave with no deal, which would cause the Pound to lose significant value.
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