Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Draghi hints at lengthening QE (Daniel Johnson)

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Continuation of QE into 2019 causes Euro weakness

Yesterday saw GBP/EUR move above 1.15. Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) spoke yesterday at the ECB monetary policy statement and he hinted that the current Quantitative Easing (QE) program could be lengthened into 2019.

QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. The ECB are currently injecting €30bn a month into the Eurozone to combat poor inflation. It was widely expected that QE would end this year which would cause significant Euro strength, Draghi’s speech yesterday however has thrown that in to doubt and resulted in GBP/EUR moving above 1.15, GBP/EUR is now less than a cent below the highest levels of exchange in 11 months.

Over the last eleven months GBP/EUR has moved above 1.15 on several occasions, other than the last spike over 1.15 the market has quickly retracted. If you are a Euro buyer and have to move short term I would be wary of expecting further Sterling advances due to the fragility of the pound caused by Brexit. It could prove wise to take advantage of current levels.

Sterling could lose value at BOE Rate Decision

For those hoping on Sterling gains on next month’s interest rate decision be careful. The market moves on rumour as well as fact. A rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) is already largely factored in. The danger is if it does not occur, which has been hinted by Carney. If f the hike does occur and the following speech from Carney hints at further hikes not occurring for some time we could see the pound fall in value.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Daniel Johnson

GBP/EUR again borders on 1.15 (Daniel Johnson)

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The Pound still remains fragile

Today again proves how difficult it is to predict market reaction. Retail Sales were released this morning, there was predicted to be a fall from 0.8% to – 0.5%, they arrived at a terrible – 1.2%. To me this would appear to be worse news than the fall in inflation yesterday, but there was little market reaction. We have actually seen Sterling rally against the Euro during this afternoon’s trading session.

You would think this data combined with the drop in inflation would cause investors concern that a rate hike may not occur from the Bank of England (BOE) in May, but that does not seem to be the case. Do not assume however that when a rate hike occurs you will see sudden advances for the pound. It is common  knowledge that a rate  hike is on the cards for May but be wary of expecting a sudden surge in Sterling value. The market moves on rumour as well as fact so I would expect the rate hike to be largely factored into current levels. There is even the danger that following the rate decision during the BOE minutes we could see the pound drop in value. Hints are often given away as to monetary policy moving forward and if there is any news that further rate hikes will not happen for some time the pound could drop in value.

If you are a Euro buyer you are currently less than a cent from the highest buying levels in 11 months. Considering the fragility of the pound it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

Daniel Johnson

GBP/EUR- 1.15 Remains a Resistance Point (Daniel Johnson)

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What will it take to breach 1.15 and Remain above 1.15?

The pound has made significant gains against the majority of major currencies recently and has breached key resistance points against the greenback and the Aussie, 1.40 and 1.80 respectively. Against the Euro however we only saw GBP/EUR above 1.15 for a very small window of opportunity and the market quickly retracted.

There has been several catalysts for the pounds advance. We have seen a significant improvement in UK retail sales, previous figures came in at – 0.2% and there was predicted to be an increase to 0.4%. They actually landed at an impressive 0.8%.

We also witnessed average wage growth move closer to parity with inflation which is a real indication of a healthy economy. There was already a strong probability of a rate hike in May from the Bank of England (BOE), but these data releases bring it even closer.

There was further good news when it was announced the UK would have access to the single market during the Brexit transitional period. I am of the opinion if these events lack the influence to keep GBP/EUR above 1.15 it will take something significant to do so, Possibly clarity over the contentious Irish border deal.

For the last 11 months 1.15 has been a resistance point and so my stance remains the same for Euro buyers, if the market is in the 1.14s you are in a good position to trade.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Daniel Johnson

Spring Statement causes Sterling to strengthen against the Euro (Daniel Johnson)

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Hammond causes a small Sterling rally following spring Statement

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer delivered a fairly positive statement and rejected negative assessments from the Labour party. He stated that the government is making progress on making the UK economy more stable and he is confident we will see improvements.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that the UK’s financial settlement with the EU will £37.1bn. This figure is based on the phase 1 agreement during early Brexit negotiations.

The Treasury predicted it would be between £35-39bn so £37bn is certainly is not the worst news. Hammond also indicated that the economy is not in as bad a state as predicted post Brexit. This could be attributed to consumers willingness to spend and cut back on saving.

Hammond helped bolster the Pounds position by stating how he intends to decrease Britain’s current deficit. It was received with mixed views some saying is being complacent.

OBR forecasts:

• 2018 GDP 1.5% Vs 1.4%
• 2019 GDP 1.3% Vs 1.3%
• 2020 GDP 1.3% Vs 1.3%
• 2021 GDP 1.4% Vs 1.5%
• 2022 GDP 1.5% Vs 1.6%
• OBR sees continued job growth in coming years
• Budget Deficit seen at GBP 45.2 bln In 2017-2018
• UK expected to meet structural deficit target in 2021 with GBP15 bln room
• Deficit to be GBP10 Bln lower in 2018 compared with 2010

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

Financial Services could be forced to relocate from London (Daniel Johnson)

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France try to steal British Tax revenue

France are making things problematic for the Britain in exit talks. Bruno Le Maire, French Economy Minister, has sis there is  little chance of the UK securing a free trade deal for financial services that would provide the level of access the UK require. Le Maire said that Britain would will be forced use a legal mechanism known as equivalence. Equivalence gives countries outside the EU limited access to the single market, access can be revoked at any time which would certainly not be suitable for financial services. Goldman Sachs have already started moving UK based employees to Germany due to the uncertainty surrounding their future.

Theresa May’s call for a mutual recognition system that  would still give UK financial services access to the single market has already been refused. Single Market access for financial services is one of the key factors in Brexit talks and this could be a major point of contention. Financial services sector is the UK’s biggest form of tax revenue.

France’s thinly veiled ruse to turn France’s capital into the new centre of financial services is causing real trouble for the UK economy and Sterling as a result.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

Could a cut in QE be on the cards from the ECB? (Daniel Johnson)

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Is a cut in QE justified?

The Eurozone’s economy is looking impressive, we have seen some of the best growth figures in over a decade. Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) has also hinted to a cut in Quantitative Easing (QE).

QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. This has been done in the past in other regions with it’s success being questionable. It seems QE can be justified in the Eurozone, although it has created debt in the trillions.

QE was cut last year from €60bn to €30bn, if there was to be a further cut we can expect the Euro to strengthen considerably. I think in order for this to occur or indeed a change in Interest Rates we will need to witness an increase in inflation, something the Eurozone has struggled with for sometime. Another worry is the stance of the Federal Reserve on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD is the most commonly traded currency pair in the world. The Euro currently sits at some of the highest levels against the US Dollar since 2014 and Several Federal Reserve members have stated they are unconcerned with US Dollar weakness. This could definitely become a cause for concern for members of the bloc as the high value of the Euro could hurt exports and seriously hinder economic growth.

Keep an eye on trade data if you are looking at trading the Euro medium to long term as this will give an indication as to the health of imports and exports.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor.

You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.
If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

Daniel Johnson

Theresa May fails to reassure the markets (Daniel Johnson)

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PM does little to help the Pound

Again a lack of unity and  a failure to compromise holds back Sterling. If there is one thing the market reacts badly to it is uncertainty, it is even sometimes the case that bad news is better than no news. It seems hopes of a soft Brexit have been dashed and we are no closer to getting a deal in place.

There was the hope that Theresa May would be able to provide some form of clarity on Brexit negotiations and that progress had been made. It still seems she wishes to cherry pick aspects of the deal which will not make Brussels happy.

Cabinet members seemed more concerned with their own political agendas rather than trying to get a deal in place.

I am of the opinion Sterling is chronically undervalued, but the pound does not have much chance of a significant rally without clarity on Brexit. GBP/EUR remains range bound between 1.11-1.15. If you are buying Euros short to medium term get something booked if GBP/EUR hits the low 1.14s, too high expectations could prove costly.

A limit order maybe the best opportunity to maximise your return. Set the target rate of exchange and should it become available 24hrs a day your currency will be purchased at a level you are happy with

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Daniel Johnson

Will the Italian Election create Euro weakness? (Daniel Johnson)

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Italian Political uncertainty could weaken the Euro

There has been little reaction to the upcoming Italian elections in the markets at present. Polls suggest there will not be an outright victor, the likelihood is that a coalition will have to be formed. The coalition formed will influence the value of the Euro. With several parties involved it will be difficult to push through any breaking legislation, if this is the case this may stop any significant Euro weakness.

The most probable outcome is a centre right coalition which includes Forza Italia, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s party. Despite being banned from office his influence and support will definitely assist in his party gaining some form of power.

Other parties involved  are far-right and anti EU, some are anti-globalisation and  anti-immigrant particularly the Brothers of Italy and the Northern League.

Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question, but I think the coalition will prevent a move for a referendum to leave the EU which would be the biggest threat to the Euro. If you are a Euro buyer I would not necessarily hang on for this event to create an opportunity.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

Inflation data could influence ECB Monetary Policy Change (Daniel Johnson)

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CPI data key to ECB Monetary Policy

The Eurozone has been performing exceptionally well of late with some of the best growth figures in over a decade. Unemployment is also very impressive at very low levels. Investors are waiting with bated breath to see if there is a change in either interest rate levels or Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. It is far from a proven method, it is very hit or miss, but in the Eurozone’s case it can be argued the measures have worked. Last year the European Central Bank (ECB) cut monthly increments from €60bn to €30bn which caused substantial Euro strength. If there were to be a further cut the Euro could again strengthen considerably.

The one thing holding back a potential change in monetary policy is inflation. Inflation has been an ongoing problem within the Eurozone for a long period. It is a problem that is not easily solved. Especially considering the strength of the Euro at present hindering exports. The Federal Reserve are also making matters worse by some Fed members stating they are unconcerned with the weak value of the USD causing investors to choose the Euro over the Dollar.

That is why today’s inflation data release at 13.30 has the power to influence the markets. Expectations are for a significant fall, however if they are incorrect and the data is not as bad as expected we could see Euro strength. If you have a trade involving the Euro be sure to keep a keen eye on this data release.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

German Grand Coalition bodes well for the Euro (Daniel Johnson)

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Merkel makes compromises to get Coalition in Place

The Euro has seen gains against the majority of major currencies of late due to positive economic data and the news that a coalition is to be formed in Germany. Political uncertainty historically weakens  the currency in question so the coalition in Germany has been a catalyst for Euro strength. Germany is the engine room of the EU so this has caused extra impetuous.

Yesterday it was agreed that the current German Chancellor, Angela Merkel’s Conservatives agreed to a number of compromises in order to put the Grand Coalition back in place with the Social Democrats. The most significant concession being the finance ministry being handed to the Social Democrats  putting an end to forced austerity to Germany’s Euro Zone policy.

This means there could be more plans for expansion with intentions of investment into a European monetary fund beginning to intensify. Its purpose would be to create added incentives to those willing to invest in the bloc. Depending on the rewards offered and it’s popularity it could create substantial Euro strength. This would be gradual gains however and not an immediate spike.

Inflation levels key to a change in Monetary Policy 

Quantitative Easing (QE) is pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. The current QE program seems to be having the desired effect in the Euro Zone with a host of positive data releases.

There is currently €30bn going in every month, down from €60bn previously. With a strong economy there is less need for QE and reductions in QE can mean significant strengthening for the Euro. Inflation is struggling at present and Draghi has indicated that QE will continue until we see inflation heading towards it’s 2% target. CPI is the key measure of inflation so keep a close eye on this release as this could be the clue to a drop in QE.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and  I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am  sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

Daniel Johnson

Eurozone grows at fastest pace for a decade in 2017 (Daniel Johnson)

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Could we see further cuts in QE?

Figures published recently show the Eurozone grew at the fastest pace in over a decade during 2017 despite  figures coming slightly lower than expectations for Q4. This could be used as justification that the Quantitative Easing (QE) program is working. QE is effectively pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. It’s viability has been questioned in the past in other areas.

Monthly increments were cut last year from €60bn to €30bn which shows confidence in the economy. Further cuts would no doubt cause substantial Euro strength. Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank (ECB) President has stated QE may have to continue longer than the current target which shows a slight lack of confidence and indicating another cut in monthly increments could be some way off.

The Eurozone economy is looking strong at present and we could see it continue to prosper during 2018. There are causes for concern however, The Italian election is due to commence in March and there has been an emergence in right wing parties such as CasaPound. If  a party such as CasaPound were to gain power their strong stance on immigration could lead to a referendum which would no doubt lead to a large drop in Euro value.

It is also worth keeping an eye on the situation in Catalonian. With many Catlalonians wishing for independence and control up in the air it is very difficult to predict the outcome. Uncertainty is worse than bad news in the currency market so keep an on this matter if you have a trade involving the Euro.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

Daniel Johnson

Strength of the Euro not a concern for Draghi (Daniel Johnson)

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Draghi speech causes Euro strength

Yesterday saw Mario Draghi the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) speak yesterday at the latest ECB press conference. There are worries that the Euro is too strong which could hinder exports , but Draghi stated that it was not a cause for concern and was positive about the Eurozone economic situation as a whole. The Euro currently sits at the best levels against the US Dollar since 2014.

He also mentioned inflation, which has been a problem in the past for the Eurozone. He said that recent economic data shows consistent growth in the bloc and feels that inflation will head towards its 2% target without the need for a change in monetary policy. Draghi also mentioned that there was the possibility that Quantitative Easing (QE) could be elongated. QE is pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. QE was reduced from €60bn monthly increments to €30bn last year and Draghi’s statement that QE could continue longer than it’s current target for completion shows a slight lack of confidence in the economy and was probably a factor in the Euro not strengthening further against the major pairs.

There are concerns for the Euro however, We have Italian elections due in March where  far right parties  are gaining popularity , such as the Casa Pound. If a party such as Casa Pound gained power there is the potential for a referendum due to their strong views on immigration. This has the potential to substantially weaken the Euro. There is also the ongoing situation of Catalonian independence which also could cause potential Euro weakness should Catalonia leaving mainland Spain become more apparent.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson