Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

May makes decisive move in Brexit Negotiations (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – Theresa May has made a decisive move and has decided to take the reigns in Brexit negotiations. This has been perceived as a  positive for investors and Sterling has rallied against the Euro as a result.

This could mean we are moving closer toward a softer Brexit, which would be deemed as a better scenario for the UK economy.

There are still concerns however, David Davis and Boris Johnson’s timely resignations could have been done in order to maximise damage in Brexit negotiations and destabilise Theresa May’s position. If a leadership challenge does occur expect the political uncertainty to weaken the pound significantly. If May fails to make sufficient progress in talks within a reasonable time scale a leadership challenge could be on the cards.

There is the strong possibility of a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in August, but I am of the opinion there is not strong enough economic data at present to warrant it. There has been poor inflation , retail sales and average wage growth data of late. Unemployment looks impressive, but is warped as it includes zero hour contracts which is hardly a stable form of employment.

I believe the hike is already factored into current rates. I would be wary of expecting Sterling gains following it’s confirmation, if it does go through it may well be the case that Carney talks down the chances of future rate hikes and Sterling weakens as a result.

If you have a Sterling to Euro requirement short term. I would be moving if the market hits the 1.13, I think there is still potential for Sterling weakness.

The ECB meeting is this afternoon, but I do not expect any change in stance from Draghi on QE or indeed the interest rate outlook.

Famous last words.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Daniel Johnson

Multiple resignations hinder Brexit negotiations (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – Brexit Negotiations are key to GBP/EUR rates. Chief Brexit negotiator, David Davis resigned on Sunday  stating Theresa May’s proposal for Brexit is unworkable. This also a view shared by Angela Merkel.

Davis felt like May was giving too much away in the current proposal and so resigned. His resignation was closely followed by Boris Johnson.  The guy is clearly pursuing his own political agenda rather than any genuine care for the future of the UK. The timing of his resignation seems timed to try and cause maximum damage in Brexit talks and in turn Theresa May’s reputation.

It would not be surprising if he makes a move to oust May and go for leadership. It would be nice if there was unification in trying to get Brexit sorted rather than sabotage it.

David Davis has been replaced by Dominic Raab, former housing minister and ex lawyer. He was a prominent leave campaigner leading up to the referendum.

Boris has been replaced by Jeremy Hunt, former health secretary. It seems we  are moving closer toward a softer Brexit which would be deemed a good news for the UK economy. The current lack of clarity on negotiations  and worry surrounding the resignation however has certainly not helped Sterling. Investors are losing faith in the Pound.

With GBP/EUR now potentially in new buoyancy levels it may be time to reevaluate your target rate of exchange if you are a Euro buyer and have to move short term. 1.14 now looks difficult to achieve.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and  I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am  sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

 

Daniel Johnson

Lack of clarity on Customs Union Access continues to hurt the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – Sterling is suffering against the Euro at present and yesterday’s meeting between Angela Merkel and Theresa May will not help matters. Merkel rejected a plan for post-Brexit relations and she went as far as to say it was “unworkable.”

This does not bode well for today’s meeting at chequers where Theresa May will put forward her intentions for Brexit to her cabinet for approval. Chief Brexit negotiator David Davis has already expressed his lack of confidence in the proposal.

This will be the UK’s third attempt at a Brexit customs model. There has been little given away, but I did read the following yesterday:

ITV journalist Robert Peston is out with a post of Facebook where he says that ‘well-placed sources’ revealed Theresa May’s Brexit plan to him and that it’s the “softest possible Brexit”.

He goes into detail, which gives it a definite air of credibility.

“The UK would in effect remain in the EU’s customs union is that there is no other way of avoiding border checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Or at least that is what the PM and her officials now believe.”

This would be positive for the pound if May’s plans were to be accepted, although that seems unlikely at present. I think Sterling has the potential to weaken further.

Germany, the engine room of the bloc displayed impressive industrial data yesterday after four months of decline, which helped bolster the Euro. There are concerns however about Trump’s trade war. The EU should be wary of escalating the situation with retaliatory tariffs.

Although this has the potential weaken the Euro, Brexit remains the key market mover. I think there is the possibility we could be witnessing new buoyancy levels below 1.14.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

Daniel Johnson

Euro weakens following Italian Coalition (Daniel Johnson)

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Italian Spendthrift Government does not bode well for the Euro

The markets are clearly concerned about the Italian collation of League and the 5 star movement . The Italian stock market and the Euro has suffered. The next Italian Prime Minister is expected to be announced as Giuseppe Conte, he is predicted to make significant cuts in taxes, provide additional welfare and also wishes to roll back pension reforms.

A new government that has the intention to  spend large sums of money does not bode well for the Eurozone. Italy is the bloc’s third largest economy, but is also the most indebted next to Greece.

Germany are currently trying to rid themselves of all public debt in an attempt to avoid joining  a debt consolidation pool for the entire Eurozone. As Germany is the engine room of the EU they would be expected to contribute more to debt repayment , essentially paying off less affluent countries’ debt. The new coalition government in Italy would clearly make the debt pool far more substantial.

Euro sellers should consider moving at current levels considering the present outlook. If we look at Sterling against the majority of major currencies there has been substantial falls due to poor data and the poor interest rate  forecast.  GBP/AUD down by nearly 10 cents, GBP/USD also down by nearly 10 cents. Against the Euro however GBP/EUR moved into the 1.14s. Demonstrating the advance is clearly Euro weakness apposed to any positive data from the UK.

EUR Buyers – If you have to move short term move at 1.1430 +

EUR Sellers – Consider moving at current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

Daniel Johnson

Eurozone Growth far from impressive (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP weakens due to BOE monetary policy outlook

The Euro has made gains of late against Sterling, this is more down to GBP weakness than Euro strength. A host of poor data from the UK put a halt to any plans from the Bank of England (BOE) to raise rates this month. There was a huge fall in retail sales, figures were predicted to arrive at – 0.5%, but landed at – 1.2%. There was also a drop in inflation, it now sits below average wage growth and GDP fell to it’s lowest in five years.  There is little reason to justify a rate hike this year. GBP/EUR remains stuck between 1.13-1.15. 1.16 has not been breached for nearly 12 months.

Having said that, if I was selling Euros I would not hang on for further gains. The main catalyst for the Pound’s weakness is lack of clarity on Brexit. It  is important to remember GBP/EUR was 1.40 + pre-Brexit and we have not witnessed 1.12 despite the appalling run of data from the UK.

Growth is also under par in the bloc. First quarter data is well below expectations. It is looking likely that this years growth will fall significantly below predictions.

If you are buying the Euro short term I would be aiming to move if interbank hits 1.1430-1.1450.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Daniel Johnson

Sterling suffers against the Euro (Daniel Johnson)

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Bank of England Rate hike now off the cards

The Pound is proving very fragile at present and is suffering against the Euro. For eleven months GBP/EUR has failed to move above 1.16. We have seen a host of poor data from the UK, retail sales , inflation and GDP were all shocking. GDP came in a 0.1% the lowest growth figures in over five months.

The anticipated rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in May now seems to be off the cards which has been a catalyst for Sterling’s drop in value. We may not now see a rate hike until 2019.

Political uncertainty is also hitting the pound. Theresa May is facing criticism fro her stance on access to the customs union following Brexit, there is a distinct lack of unity and there has been rumours May could be ousted. Keep a close eye on developments as they unfold as this will have bearing on GBP/EUR.

Euro buyers – If you have to move short term move when interbank is above 1.14.

Euro sellers – There is potential for further gains , but be wary of being too optimistic, the pound is chronically undervalued and Brexit clarity will cause the pound to rally. Move in the low 1.12s if you like to gamble.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

Daniel Johnson

Host of poor UK economic data brings BOE rate hike into question (Daniel Johnson)

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BOE rate hike could be postponed

It was widely anticipated that a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) would take place in May. This was due to some very impressive data, particularly average wage growth and unemployment, unemployment currently sitting at a 43yr low.

Unfortunately the favourable data releases failed to continue. We saw a drop in inflation, which I do not consider too much of a concern considering we are well above the 2% target, although this largely due to the weak value of the pound (blame Brexit). Average wage growth is in fact above inflation which some consider to be concerning,  if people are making money, but not spending it can be considered unhealthy for the economy.

We saw a big fall in retails sales but this could be attributed to the beat of the east and finally we saw a fall in GDP. It is difficult to still warrant the rate hike form the BOE in May taking these releases into account. The hike was already factored into current levels which is why we saw a significant fall on GBP/EUR.

If you are a Euro buyer my stance remains the same, if the market is in the 1.14s you are in a good position to move.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

Daniel Johnson

Draghi hints at lengthening QE (Daniel Johnson)

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Continuation of QE into 2019 causes Euro weakness

Yesterday saw GBP/EUR move above 1.15. Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) spoke yesterday at the ECB monetary policy statement and he hinted that the current Quantitative Easing (QE) program could be lengthened into 2019.

QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. The ECB are currently injecting €30bn a month into the Eurozone to combat poor inflation. It was widely expected that QE would end this year which would cause significant Euro strength, Draghi’s speech yesterday however has thrown that in to doubt and resulted in GBP/EUR moving above 1.15, GBP/EUR is now less than a cent below the highest levels of exchange in 11 months.

Over the last eleven months GBP/EUR has moved above 1.15 on several occasions, other than the last spike over 1.15 the market has quickly retracted. If you are a Euro buyer and have to move short term I would be wary of expecting further Sterling advances due to the fragility of the pound caused by Brexit. It could prove wise to take advantage of current levels.

Sterling could lose value at BOE Rate Decision

For those hoping on Sterling gains on next month’s interest rate decision be careful. The market moves on rumour as well as fact. A rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) is already largely factored in. The danger is if it does not occur, which has been hinted by Carney. If f the hike does occur and the following speech from Carney hints at further hikes not occurring for some time we could see the pound fall in value.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Daniel Johnson

GBP/EUR again borders on 1.15 (Daniel Johnson)

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The Pound still remains fragile

Today again proves how difficult it is to predict market reaction. Retail Sales were released this morning, there was predicted to be a fall from 0.8% to – 0.5%, they arrived at a terrible – 1.2%. To me this would appear to be worse news than the fall in inflation yesterday, but there was little market reaction. We have actually seen Sterling rally against the Euro during this afternoon’s trading session.

You would think this data combined with the drop in inflation would cause investors concern that a rate hike may not occur from the Bank of England (BOE) in May, but that does not seem to be the case. Do not assume however that when a rate hike occurs you will see sudden advances for the pound. It is common  knowledge that a rate  hike is on the cards for May but be wary of expecting a sudden surge in Sterling value. The market moves on rumour as well as fact so I would expect the rate hike to be largely factored into current levels. There is even the danger that following the rate decision during the BOE minutes we could see the pound drop in value. Hints are often given away as to monetary policy moving forward and if there is any news that further rate hikes will not happen for some time the pound could drop in value.

If you are a Euro buyer you are currently less than a cent from the highest buying levels in 11 months. Considering the fragility of the pound it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

Daniel Johnson

GBP/EUR- 1.15 Remains a Resistance Point (Daniel Johnson)

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What will it take to breach 1.15 and Remain above 1.15?

The pound has made significant gains against the majority of major currencies recently and has breached key resistance points against the greenback and the Aussie, 1.40 and 1.80 respectively. Against the Euro however we only saw GBP/EUR above 1.15 for a very small window of opportunity and the market quickly retracted.

There has been several catalysts for the pounds advance. We have seen a significant improvement in UK retail sales, previous figures came in at – 0.2% and there was predicted to be an increase to 0.4%. They actually landed at an impressive 0.8%.

We also witnessed average wage growth move closer to parity with inflation which is a real indication of a healthy economy. There was already a strong probability of a rate hike in May from the Bank of England (BOE), but these data releases bring it even closer.

There was further good news when it was announced the UK would have access to the single market during the Brexit transitional period. I am of the opinion if these events lack the influence to keep GBP/EUR above 1.15 it will take something significant to do so, Possibly clarity over the contentious Irish border deal.

For the last 11 months 1.15 has been a resistance point and so my stance remains the same for Euro buyers, if the market is in the 1.14s you are in a good position to trade.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Daniel Johnson

Spring Statement causes Sterling to strengthen against the Euro (Daniel Johnson)

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Hammond causes a small Sterling rally following spring Statement

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer delivered a fairly positive statement and rejected negative assessments from the Labour party. He stated that the government is making progress on making the UK economy more stable and he is confident we will see improvements.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that the UK’s financial settlement with the EU will £37.1bn. This figure is based on the phase 1 agreement during early Brexit negotiations.

The Treasury predicted it would be between £35-39bn so £37bn is certainly is not the worst news. Hammond also indicated that the economy is not in as bad a state as predicted post Brexit. This could be attributed to consumers willingness to spend and cut back on saving.

Hammond helped bolster the Pounds position by stating how he intends to decrease Britain’s current deficit. It was received with mixed views some saying is being complacent.

OBR forecasts:

• 2018 GDP 1.5% Vs 1.4%
• 2019 GDP 1.3% Vs 1.3%
• 2020 GDP 1.3% Vs 1.3%
• 2021 GDP 1.4% Vs 1.5%
• 2022 GDP 1.5% Vs 1.6%
• OBR sees continued job growth in coming years
• Budget Deficit seen at GBP 45.2 bln In 2017-2018
• UK expected to meet structural deficit target in 2021 with GBP15 bln room
• Deficit to be GBP10 Bln lower in 2018 compared with 2010

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

Financial Services could be forced to relocate from London (Daniel Johnson)

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France try to steal British Tax revenue

France are making things problematic for the Britain in exit talks. Bruno Le Maire, French Economy Minister, has sis there is  little chance of the UK securing a free trade deal for financial services that would provide the level of access the UK require. Le Maire said that Britain would will be forced use a legal mechanism known as equivalence. Equivalence gives countries outside the EU limited access to the single market, access can be revoked at any time which would certainly not be suitable for financial services. Goldman Sachs have already started moving UK based employees to Germany due to the uncertainty surrounding their future.

Theresa May’s call for a mutual recognition system that  would still give UK financial services access to the single market has already been refused. Single Market access for financial services is one of the key factors in Brexit talks and this could be a major point of contention. Financial services sector is the UK’s biggest form of tax revenue.

France’s thinly veiled ruse to turn France’s capital into the new centre of financial services is causing real trouble for the UK economy and Sterling as a result.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson