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Potential UK Recession Key for GBP/EUR Rates (Matthew Vassallo)
Bad news for the UK economy seems to be a regular occurrence of late and the situation continues to look bleak as we head into a key period for GBP/EUR exchange rates. The EUR has tried to strengthen amid this negativity but is constantly hampered by its own economic problems, which are deep rooted throughout the Eurozone economy.
It is almost a guarantee that we will hear of further unrest, whether it be in Cyprus, Ireland or one of the larger nations such as Spain, Italy or France. All have the ability to create another global financial crisis if their economies were to collapse and at times the Eurozone seems as if it is held together by nothing more than empty promises and increasingly harsh austerity measures.
As mentioned above the coming weeks could prove crucial to the short to medium-term outlook of GBP/EUR. The 25th of April should be a key date in anyone’s diary who has a GBP/EUR requirement, as this is when we will find out whether the UK economy falls back into official recession. Whilst these figures could well be revised, the initial market may well mirror these results. I cannot see GBP gaining much momentum even if we do avoid recession, although there will be an element of market confidence returning to the Pound and it shouldn’t lose any more value. If we do in fact find ourselves back in a recession the Pound will struggle to make any serious inroads against the major currencies and provided the Eurozone doesn’t throw up any nasty surprises (something which sounds unlikely given the recent history), then we are likely to see Sterling move back towards 1.14.
Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we are able to provide our clients not only with award winning rates of exchange but a bespoke service designed to give you the client, as much insight into the markets as possible. If you would like to find out the type of rates we can offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please call us on 0044 1494 787 478.
EUR Strength Not a Certainty But Will Sterling’s Fight Back Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)
The EUR has certainly benefited from Sterling’s demise more than most other currencies since the turn of the year. Following some positive statements form various eurozone leaders, it did seem as if we were going to be witnessing one way traffic on GBP/EUR for much of the first half of 2013. Sterling has gone against the grain however and started to make some inroads against its euro counterpart during Wednesdays trading. Predictions were for a further fall on GBP/EUR, with some not expecting much positive movement at all as we move towards quarter 2 of this year.
The one thing we can be sure of is that whilst both the UK and eurozone economies continue to stagnate, it will be very difficult to forecast the pair, or identify any real market trends. I would expect the recent volatility to continue, with a potential respite coming if the UK does in fact manage to avoid the now well documented triple-dip recession. On the eurozone side, developments in Italy are key and a run of consistent economic data is need if the EUR is to really push forward.
Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have won multiple awards for our exchange rates and service. If you have an upcoming currency transfer and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or would like to speak to us regarding the currency options available to you then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or call us on 0044 1494 787 478.
EUR Rates Surge Again but Spanish Unemployment Figures a Major Concern (Matthew Vassallo)
EUR sellers won’t believe there luck at the moment, as once again the single currency has surged against GBP and the USD during Thursdays trading, moving over a cent and half a cent respectively. This positive movement has been an ongoing trend for the past couple of weeks and the temptation for those holding EUR must now be to wait and ‘see how far it can go’. Personally I did not expect to see so much movement so quickly and although it is impossible to say that the EUR won’t strengthen further, I do feel inclined to play devils advocate when it comes to any dramatic improvement within the region. When it comes to the eurozone economy and its recovery, I am certainly of the opinion that once bitten, twice shy.
The movement we have seen in the past two weeks on GBP/EUR rates means that anyone who needs to make a 200,000 EUR/GBP transfer today, would receive over £8,000 more than they would have done on the same transfer two weeks ago. I think we would all struggle to find an investment that produced that return within a two week period and it is also important to remember that it is very rare to see rates move so quickly and so dramatically.
I am also wary of the fact that the eurozone economy has many pitfalls to negotiate before we can really say it is on the road to recovery and when you read reports that unemployment amongst the young in Spain has hit a staggering 55%, it certianly makes you question how afluent the leading economies within the eurozone can be. This figure highlights how unsteady the recovery is and for that reason the movement we have seen against the USD but in particular GBP, would seriously make me consider my position if I had a EUR requirement.
Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have a team of specialist currency brokers experienced in ensuring client’s currency exchanges are handled in the most appropriate fashion. We can assist not just with unbeatable commercial rates but also a highly personal service, designed to give you as much insight into the market as possible so that you may time your trade to perfection. As a UK plc that has been trading for almost 13 years, we have won awards from The Sunday Times and Telegraph for our rates and service. Ultimately we save our client’s money by offering superior rates of exchange compared to the banks and other currency outlets and also provide key market analysis in the build-up to any transfer.
If you would like to find out the type of rates we can offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or call me 0044 1494 787 478.
GBP Rallies Against the EUR Following Heavy Loses (Matthew Vassallo)
GBP rallied during Tuesdays trading, bringing some welcome repsite to all those who have been watching their positons dwindle duing a hectic 72 hours for GBP/EUR exchange rates. The euro had strengthened to a nine month high against the Pound, only to relinquish some of that ground by the close of European trading.
I have always felt that whilst we were trading above 1.20 on GBP/EUR, clients were doing a bit better than they should have been and it will be a harsh realisation for some, who were committed to waiting for rates of 1.25 or above.
Whilst it is very difficult to predict future fluctuations on GBP/EUR, I do believe that any move back towards 1.21-1.22, should be seen as a major positive for EUR buyers. Those expecting rates to tumble back to the lows we experienced towards the end of 2011 (1.10), need only look at the fragile state of the eurozone economies to realise this is highly unlikely. Personally I would be looking at 1.20 as a benchmark for the pair as we move through Q1 of 2013. If I had the opportunity to buy EUR above 1.20 then I would certainly consider it and similarly if EUR sellers can get a rate below 1.20 then this is historically a very attractive level.
Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have a team of specialist currency brokers experienced in ensuring client’s currency exchanges are handled in the most appropriate fashion. We can assist not just with unbeatable commercial rates but also a highly personal service, designed to give you as much insight into the market as possible so that you may time your trade to perfection. As a UK plc that has been trading for almost 13 years, we have won awards from The Sunday Times and Telegraph for our rates and service. Ultimately we save our client’s money by offering superior rates of exchange compared to the banks and other currency outlets and also provide key market analysis in the build-up to any transfer.
If you would like to find out the type of rates we can offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or call me 0044 1494 787 478.
EUR Strengthens During Thursday’s Trading
The EUR strengthened during Thursday’s trading despite a mixed day of economic data for the region. A report today indicated that business activity in the eurozone has continued to contract in November, which is in line with the recession the region finds itself in. A sharp decline of activity in the service sector was offset by a small improvement in the manufacturing sector, although perhaps of most concern to eurozone leaders will have been the warning of a 0.5% drop in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the fourth quarter of this year.
For a region already desperately struggling to find a balance between the necessary austerity measures and the ability to provide economic growth, it is a worrying prediction indeed. However, despite these concerns the markets have been EUR positive today as the single currency has strengthened by approximately half a cent against Sterling, whilst also seeing some small gains against the USD. With the EUR potentially in line for further problems during the last months of 2012, those holding euro may wish to take advantage of this current spike before further issues within the eurozone arise and current levels potentially dissapear.
During these turbulent times it can be daunting trying to navigate volatile markets with little knowledge of what moves exchange rates and what you can hope to achieve from your transfer. Whether you are buying or selling EUR, or any other currency for that matter, it can be invaluable to have a set of eyes and ears in the markets, that can keep you updated with all the latest market movements and spikes, so that you do not miss those opportunities as and when they present themselves.
Here at FCD we have various contract types all tailored specifically towards our client’s needs, so for more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or call us today on 0044 1494 787 478 or visit and sign up to your free, no obligation trading account.
When Will the Euro Recover?
The EUR has failed to make any serious inroads against the major currencies this week, as fears remain over the economic stability of many of its nations. The markets have reacted negatively to the on-going saga and even European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s commitment to the future welfare of the region, has done little to alay investors concerns.
Economic problems within the eurozone are nothing new. How often do we turn on the evening news to hear of further unrest and with public protestsin Spain, Greece or Italy almost a weekly occurrence, it is sometimes difficult to see any light at the end of a very long dark tunnel.
During times like this it is easy to forget that only twelve months ago the world’s top analysts were predicting parity between the EUR and GBP and there was talk of a move towards 1.15 against the USD. Now we have the same analysts convinced that we will see 1.30 on GBP/EUR before 2013, with the euro struggling to breach the same mark on EUR/USD. These statistics to me are key as they prove long-term predictions are, in this current market, quite frankly useless. Yes they can provide investors with some type of strategy but when they are disproved more often than not, this strategy will inevitably become flawed.
What I am currently telling my clients is that we need to be reactive to the markets without having a knee jerk reaction. We need to be in tune with market trends and even potentially realign any targets because of this but what we do not want to do is decide to throw these targets out of the window because the markets move against us for a couple of days.
This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our client’s needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.
Euro Momentum Halted Once Again
The EUR lost some of its recent momentum during Tuesday mornings trading, following last nights decision by credit rating agency Moody’s to downgrade five Spanish regions. This news will have come as a blow to eurozone leaders, although it cannot have been completely unexpected considering the precarious position the Spanish economy still finds itself in. Catalonia, which is regarded as the financial hub of Spain, will be granted another part of the 5.4 billion euro aid to cover outstanding debts and this is widely anticipated to be the tip of the iceberg, as further bailouts across multiple regions are expected imminently.
The EUR did manage to regain some ground during afternoon trading however, following a relatively successful Spanish bond auction and confirmation that the European Commission has backed plans to launch a financial transactions tax. This tax will help to raise additional funds to combat the on-going EU debt crisis and the hope is it will also start to bring back some long-term market confidence in the region.
GBP/EUR rates continue to cause investors headaches, due to the relative difficulty in predicting and identifying any consistent market trends. Just when you think there is some transparenty and a tangible trend being created, further news is released and it feels like we are back at square one. Personally I feel the EUR could put pressure on 1.22 if Spain’s problems continue to escalate, whilst any move back towards 1.24 will be dependent on UK economic data improving, although with better than expected unemployment, retail sale and inflation figures over the past week, this is starting to feel more feasible than in recent weeks. A key data release this week will be Thursday’s UK Gross Domestic Product figures, which will be a key indicator of how the UK economy has performed during Q3 of this year. So far we have heard mixed reports, with UK prime minister David Cameron suggesting our economy is ‘slowly healing itslef’, whilst others are not so optimistic and have suggested our economy has stagnated.
EUR/USD rates were pushed below 1,30 today following the Spanish downgrade and whilst the political uncertainty continues to hang over the US economy, the USD will struggle to make any serious inroads.
Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have won awards for our exchange rates and customer service. We also provide multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our client’s needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do not have the full funds available and is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.
IMF Wants to Give Greece More Time Despite Record High Unemployment
Wednesday’s headlines have once again been dominated by Greece, following yesterday’s reports that the country’s unemployment had hit record highs at 25.1%. Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde has backed calls for Greece to have more time to meet its repayment targets, a statement which has been rebuffed by Germany who feel they ‘have to stick to what was announced’. Greece has asked for 2 more years to meet these targets but how can anyone within the eurozone have confidence that an extension will provide a solution, when it hasn’t up until this point. Many will ask the question as to why Greece was afforded Billions of euro, which could have potentially been used to better effect elsewhere. Especially when it seems to have made little difference to the countries standing and their ability to move themselves away from their crippling econmic situation.
The EUR had continued to perform well against GBP during Friday morning’s trading but these gains were erased following the announcement by Lagarde and at time of writing Sterling had broken back through 1.24, providing those holding Sterling with some respite following a poor week on the markets.
EUR/USD rates have continued to stay fairly level, staying range-bound between 1.29-1.30 as the markets wait for developments in Spain and Greece and the outcome of the US elections, which should bring some renewed confidence back to the USD.
EUR/AUD rates have been improving of late as concerns over Australia’s growth prospects have come to light following the slowdown in China’s demand for Australia’s raw materials. The Royal Bank of Australia have hinted at further interest rate cuts and the AUD has started to come under pressure against most of the major currencies.
This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our client’s needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.
Sterling Loses Continue Amid Concerns Over ‘Stagnating’ Economy
“If the BoE decide further QE is necessary to boost the flagging UK economy, Sterling could struggle over the coming weeks”
GBP/EUR
Fears over the fragility of the UK economy have resurfaced, with a report suggesting that growth during the third quarter of this year was minimal and our economy is once again close to stagnation. This news will be a blow to UK leaders and the BoE (Bank of England) who suggested we may actually see an upturn in fortunes over the remainder of this year. PMI data has suggested contraction in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors, news that will hardly alleviate growing market concerns.
The EUR continued to strengthen against GBP during Wednesday’s trading, with rumors rife that the markets were starting to factor in a further round of Quantitative Easing. This announcement could come as early as today, when the Bank of England will make a decision on whether to cut interest rates, in addition to any announcement of further QE. These decisions are seen as key to the next major move on the GBP/EUR currency pair and many people will be waiting for the outcome of this before deciding when to initiate their next currency transfer.
It is worth remembering that the markets will usually start to factor in any major economic decisions before the actual announcement and the one thing we can be certain of is investors will do everything in their power to be one step ahead of the game. For this reason, it is often in the build-up to any economic releases that the markets will move according to the likely outcome. This is not inevitable but may be why we have seen the EUR strengthen over the past few days ahead of today’s announcement. Any variation from the expected outcome could cause additional market fluctuation, so to protect yourself against this please call us now on the free phone number 0800 328 5884 and discuss the options available to you.
If you would like to take advantage of our award winning exchange rates then please visit our website www.currencies.co.uk for more information and speak to one of our brokers today.
European Commision Unveil New Proposals
The European Commission has put forward new proposals to make it easier for individuals and companies to move and do business within the European Union. It will be referred to as the commission’s Single Market Act 2 and it should strengthen social entrepreneurship and boost consumer confidence, whilst also raising employment across the entire region. This could help struggling economies such as Spain, whose unemployment levels remain near record highs.
The EUR has been making headway since the start of the week, with rates moving back under the 1.25 resistance barrier and providing EUR sellers with an additional £1,500 on a 200,000 EUR/GBP, compared to the same transfer on Monday morning. This is a key indicator as to why it is so important to have a currency broker actively working with you to ensure you are maximize each and every transfer, no matter how large or small.
EUR/USD
With President Obama and Mitt Romney currently going head to head in a series of live TV debates, the US economy is sure to be in the headlines over the coming days. Whilst the USD has continued to struggle against most major currencies of late, their economy and probably President Obama were given a boost as activity in the service sector picked up, whilst US companies added more jobs than expected. The EUR did make further gains yesterday on the greenback however, with pressure once again being put on the 1.30 level.
Here at FCD we have various contract types all tailored specifically towards our client’s needs, so for more information please call us today on 0044 1494 725 353 or contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.
Greek Protests Bring About a Case of Deja Vu
The image of Greek protestors is an all too familiar sight and brings about a serious case of deja vu to this particular analyst. These scenes are very reminiscent of six months ago, when the eurozone debt crisis was gathering a head of steam and media reports about the collapse of the euro were rife. Since then we have seen multiple bailouts, commitment to the country by a variety of key European figureheads and promises from a new government to bring about the necessary austerity measures to keep Greece in the eurozone.
If the situation was bleak then, where are we now? The Greek people are despondent and rightly so and serious questions need to be asked as to how this situation has been allowed to develop to such an extent. Why has so much money been pumped into Greece that could potentially have been used to support other flagging economies? How did EU leaders not see that the austerity measures being implemented were ultimately going to hamper Greece from meeting those repayments? These questions whilst valid do not tell the whole story and to be quite frank Greece should never have been allowed to get to the point of a possible default, considering that they have been allocated over 200 bn-euro in rescue funds. I can understand why leaders felt it was important to keep Greece in the eurozone, especially since the threat of contagion to other nations was unknown but honestly can they say that Greece as a single entity, or the eurozone as one are better off for it?
When you also look at the problems facing the Spanish economy, after the revelation by The Bank of Spain that the Spanish economy had continued to shrink at a ‘significant rate’, you do fear the worst and it does point to further pressure on the euro over the coming weeks. GBP/EUR have actually stayed fairly flat during Wednesday’s trading, with just a small spike for Sterling. It could be that the issues in Spain and Greece have been factored into the market movements over the past few days but also that protests alone do not mean that solutions aren’t possible. Many will probably take that statement with a pinch of salt but Mario Draghi’s recent commitment to Greece and the euro, with his ‘unlimited’ bond buying scheme, in essence should help to protect the eurozone against these kind of fallouts. However, this scheme has yet to be put into effect and as such I will remain sceptical until proven otherwise. GBP/EUR rates continue to move between 1.25-1.26 as the markets try to digest the outcome of these recent developments.
EUR/USD rates have also dropped, with the greenback gaining almost half a cent during Wednesdays trading. This could be a direct result of today’s protests, coupled with investors’ fears that the global economy could come under some pressure again following the problems in Greece and Spain. Usually in times of global crisis investors will move to the USD, which is seen as a safe-haven currency as it tends to hold its value better than other major currencies in times of global economic uncertainty.
This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our client’s needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.
Why is the EUR Losing Ground Again?
Just as the EUR looked to be finding some steady ground following months of instability, the tide once again seems to be turning against the single currency. For all of those readers needing to make a EUR transfer it is important to take a step back, as on the surface it is beginning to feel like the never ending merry-go-round. Just as it seems things are picking up, they drop off and just as it seems hope is lost, the EUR bounces back. To be quite honest investors and ultimately the markets have lost a lot of confidence in the eurozone and their leaders ability to provide any real long-term solutions.
But what about ECB president Mario Draghi’s recent commitment to the region, with his scheme for unlimited bong buying you may ask? Yes, this did bring back some initial market confidence but at that point the EUR was struggling to move away from its four year low against GBP (1.2860) and its recent low against the USD (1.2099). The truth is it is going to be a long-road to recovery and quite understandably that road to recovery will be met with some speed bumps. For those unsure of when the right time is to initate their currency transfer, there are a few factors to consider.
If you have an upcoming EUR/GBP transfer you need to try and look into the relative state of each economy, as the UK is still struggling to pull itself out of recession despite last weeks better than expected retail sale figures and unemployment figures. UK leaders will also want to control any major positive movement for GBP against the EUR, as our trade deficit is the widest since records began and a strong currency will only weaken our hand, by further alienating our largest trading partner (the EU). For this reason I do not see GBP/EUR levels moving back towards the recent four year highs but will instead continue to find some resistance around 1.25, whilst the markets wait in anticipation of the next major shift for the currency pair.
For all those with an upcoming EUR/USD transfer it is important to remember that the EUR has in fact gained over 9 cents in the past couple of months, a spike that will gain you an extra $8,000 on a 100,000 EUR/USD transfer. With the on-going political uncertainty in the US, coupled with the recent injection of QE3 it is not unreasonable to think that the EUR could break back through 1.30, although with the greenback seen as a relative safe-haven currency its movements are not always easy to predict.
This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at
Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our clients needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do
not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.
Recent History Suggests Continued EUR Strength is Not a Certainty
As EU leaders breath a sigh of relief and the EUR continues to strengthen against GBP and the USD, it is worth heeding a word of caution. Mario Draghi’s recent announcement may have brought some stability back to the markets but the eurozone and its recent history suggest it is nothing if not unpredictable and whilst the dark clouds of Spain and Greece (amongst others) hang over the region, I do not believe the statement ‘beware the ides of March’ is quite fitting.
12 months ago analysts from some of the world’s laregst and respected corporations were predicting parity on GBP/EUR by the end of this year. Fast forward 9 months and the same analysts were predicting 1.30, proof that the currency markets are forever evolving and why its so important to have a personal currency broker who can keep you updated with all the latest market movements during these volatile times.
Personally I feel GBP/EUR rates will be heading towards 1.22 unless there is a major shift in momentum and public perception over the coming weeks and EUR/USD levels will push on through 1.30.
This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at
Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our clients needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do
not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.
