Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Sterling Still Sensitive to Polls

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The pound is still highly sensitive to the political mood in the UK ahead of the 12th December general election. At the time of writing, the pound is trading against the euro at 1.1686. This is amidst signs that a Conservative majority is potentially slipping away according the polls.

There was widespread selling in the foreign exchange markets on Monday, with analysts expressing concern that Boris Johnson’s party is losing its popularity over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.

Pound Reacts to Hung Parliament Odds


Betfair Exchange reported that the odds of a Conservative majority have dropped below 65%, after spending most of last week around the 70% marker. The polling trends are showing that support for the Labour Party is increasing. However, as we pointed out yesterday, this seems to be mostly at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Conservative popularity is stalling, but they are not necessarily haemorrhaging votes to Labour.

When the odds were at 70% towards a Conservative majority, the sterling to euro exchange rate was as high as 1.1765. Sterling has suffered because markets fear for a Labour-led or Labour-majority government, as the party’s perceived unfriendly business policies could see investors shift money out of the UK.

At such a pivotal political time when parties are pledging to sort Brexit out (either by stopping it all together or passing a deal), a hung parliament would mean that the UK would remain in limbo. There would potentially not be enough leave or remain MPs for a parliamentary vote on a deal, or indeed anything else, to pass. Brexit would not be resolved, and it’s forecast that the pound to dollar exchange would possibly drop back into the 1.22-1.24 range if this were to happen.

Is Labour Losing Its Heartland?


The polls are pointing to Labour gains, but they aren’t necessarily 100% reliable, as demonstrated by Theresa May’s 2017 disappointments. According to senior sources in both Labour and Conservative camps, there is relatively strong evidence that Boris Johnson’s party are actually doing better than expected in traditional Labour seats in the north and the midlands. This could be because these seats are also heavily in favour of leave, with many traditional Labour voters in these areas resentful at Jeremy Corbyn’s neutral stance on the issue.

For more GBP/EUR news or if you have a currency requirement you can get in touch with me, Tom Holian, directly at teh@currencies.co.uk, or call +44 (0) 1494 360 899 to discuss these factors in more detail.

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Sterling Stays Steady with Worries of History Repeating Itself

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The pound increased slightly against most of its rival currencies over the last 24 hours, ahead of market confidence for Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party winning a majority in the upcoming General Election. Sterling rallied above 1.17 vs the euro, and 1.29 against the US dollar at the time of writing.

The Conservatives are maintaining their poll lead. However, it was at this point in the last election when Theresa May’s luck ran out. She ended up leading a minority government, which relied on the Northern Irish DUP for support to pass legislation.

Sterling Still Strong as Polls Predict Johnson Majority

According to an opinion poll by ICM for Reuters, the Conservatives’ support fell by one point to 41%, and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party was up two points, placing them on 34%. This support is enough to give the Conservatives a majority of 50. However, conflicting polls over the weekend put the party on a 19-point lead, as we reported yesterday.

The majority of polls give the Conservatives roughly on average an 8-10 point lead over Labour. This has reassured the markets, and sterling is almost at an 8% high since September.

Coalition Could Weaken Sterling

There’s a lot of discussion amongst the smaller parties on how a coalition or supply and demand government could work, if the Conservatives did not win enough seats to command a majority under the UK’s first past the post voting system.

Coalition and supply and demand are different forms of government, where no one party has an overall majority. A coalition government is one where two parties go into a formal agreement to govern together- with both parties having ministers and responsible for their own government departments, as we saw under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition between 2010-2015.
A supply and demand agreement is where one party supports another to pass legislation by supporting a minority government. This is more informal, but the party with more seats could pledge money for causes specific to their smaller partner- as we saw from Theresa May’s agreement with the DUP after the 2017 election (which eventually broke down).

The Options Are Endless

Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson has said her party would not support a Labour government with Jeremy Corbyn at the helm. They have also positioned themselves as a “remain” party, whereas Labour explicitly said during a second EU referendum they would not campaign for leave or remain.

Moreover, the SNP could be a possibility depending on their luck in Scotland. Nevertheless, Jeremy Corbyn would have to be willing to offer a second referendum on Scottish Independence- something the markets would probably not take kindly to.

For more GBP/EUR news or if you have a currency requirement you can get in touch with me, Tom Holian, directly at teh@currencies.co.uk, or call +44 (0) 1494 360 899 to discuss these factors in more detail.

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Is This the Calm Before the Storm for Sterling?

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Sterling hasn’t fluctuated much this week despite the UK seeing its first leadership debate of this general election campaign. Markets are currently optimistic about the direction of politics in the UK, with pound sterling trading at around 1.1681 against the euro, and 1.2935 against the dollar. It’s been a tumultuous year for the markets, so let’s have a look back at the rollercoaster ride for foreign exchange.

No Deal Impact on the Euro and the Pound

Prime Minister Boris Johnson swore when he took office in June, that he would ensure the UK would leave the EU on 31st October “with or without a deal”. As the Halloween deadline crept up, it looked more and more likely that there could be a cliff edge Brexit, with the UK crashing out of the EU suddenly and plunging the country into World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, with businesses facing the prospect of tariff and non-tariff barriers when wanting to trade with the EU. This would result in huge additional costs for companies and send the markets into a downward spiral.

Despite doing the near impossible, the Prime Minister negotiated a new deal with the EU. Markets responded favourably, but unfortunately, Parliament prevented the deal being voted through once again. This resulted in Boris Johnson calling a general election, causing the pound to drop to 1.1574, with the prospect of even more uncertainty shaking the markets. At this point in October, it was also unknown whether the EU would grant the UK a further extension to Article 50, to avoid that no deal Brexit.

Sterling Against the Dollar

Sterling has risen 5% against the dollar since the end of September, correlating with the prospects of the Conservative Party winning a majority on 12th December.
Assuming the Conservative Party win an outright majority as the polls currently predict, 2020 could be a good year for sterling. The British pound could rise by 8% by the end of 2020 to $1.39 according to analysts. This would be its highest in 18 months.

However, it was around this point in the 2017 election that Labour began to make gains and change the narrative of its campaign. Labour is due to publish its manifesto today, and focus on somewhat radical plans to overhaul the economy and public spending not seen since the 1970s.

Given the markets’ awareness of the volatility of the UK electorate, we might not see a rise in sterling until after the election when we have a clear result.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying euros, feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound reaches sixth month high against the Euro as Conservatives lead in Polls

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It’s been a good week for Sterling, as it makes gains amidst new polls hinting at a Conservative majority in the upcoming General Election on 12th December. The pound has become its strongest against the euro in six months, as a result of several factors, including the publication of new polls and announcements from several political parties.

Nigel Farage boost to Conservative party

One of the main reasons for the increase is the recent announcement from Nigel Farage that his newly founded Brexit Party would not stand against existing Conservative seats. The Brexit Party is seen as the main rivals to the Conservatives, with the former winning many seats at the European Elections earlier in the year. Support for the Brexit Party comes from many typical Conservative voters who voted to leave the EU, with the newly founded party taking on the role of UKIP, which was seen as an EU protest party and the Conservative’s main rivals several years ago.

Odds on a Conservative majority have increased by about 20% since last week, according to betting markets. The most recent YouGov poll pointed to a Conservative lead of 14 points over Labour. Sterling will continue to grow if there is a Conservative majority, as this would increase the chances of a Brexit deal and bring some certainty to the markets.

However, as seen from the 2017 General Election, opinion polls are just that- with the result potentially being very different. There are still many other possible outcomes from 12th December, which will all have differing impacts on the pound t euro exchange rate. A Labour majority might see a small fall at first, despite it being possible that Labour might opt for a soft Brexit, or even a second referendum. However, it’s Labour’s domestic policies which concern the markets, and present worries over Government spending and squeezing out profits from the private sector and shutting out foreign investment.

It’s worth noting that if the Liberal Democrats were to win a majority- which does seem unlikely- then the markets are likely to react positively. This is due to the Party’s pro-EU stance, and their business policies, which are reported as more friendly than Labour’s.

For more GBP/EUR news or if you have a currency requirement you can get in touch with me, Tom Holian, directly at teh@currencies.co.uk, or call +44 (0) 1494 360 899 to discuss these factors in more detail.

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

GBP/EUR Rises Amid Eurozone Stability Concerns

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As the Eurozone economy attempts to recollect itself, the GBPEUR interbank rate has increased marginally. Interestingly, the pound to euro exchange rate showed better signs today. The pairing is currently trading near €1.161. As is the case, the market appeal for the single currency has dropped due to rising concerns over the economic health of Eurozone.

This was after the decline in the figures of German factories, which painted a less desirable picture for not only the biggest manufacturing juggernaut in Europe but also for rest of Europe.
According to the European economic data, the producer price index figure for Europe eased by -1.2%.

On the other hand, the pound edged past the single currency subsequent to the BRC Like-for-like Retail Sales number increased by 0.1% for the month of October. This is primarily due to high-profile retail stores offering hefty discounts in an effort to ramp up consumer confidence. The next month’s election is also partially responsible for this.

The long-term trends paints a bleak picture as the 12-month sales growth is not as formidable as it used to be. Euro predictions from others also corroborated this sentiment. The months that lie ahead could be tricky for Eurozone. The fourth quarter could be in for a rough start, with US-China trade deals in tow and the fate of UK regarding Brexit, downside risks are still there.
Brexit affects euro and with the incoming December election, there are newly-created uncertainties, retailers will certainly be nervous about the months that lie ahead.

Speaking of sterling, the currency stood its ground against the euro currency even though the US Services Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for the month of October showed little sign to move out from the contraction territory.

Interestingly, the pound to euro exchange rate could be even higher if the factory orders in Germany continues to show signs of deterioration. This could potentially exacerbate the situation for the Eurozone economy and weigh quite heavily on the single currency itself.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying Euros, then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound vs Euro forecast: what to expect this week

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Pound Euro in tight range

Pound Euro exchange rates have been trending in a very slow upwards direction recently, and we could be in for further movement during the course of this week.

Over the weekend, there was a huge number of protesters in London, aimed at reversing Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend Parliament.

The Prime Minister’s main aim is to try and get Brexit sorted prior by the end of October and, by suspending Parliament, this allows him to take things forward without too much interference.

Clearly, this hasn’t gone down well with MPs, as many are still looking to block a ‘no deal’ Brexit from happening.

Euro under pressure: Germany struggling

Meanwhile in Europe, there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment. The Euro has dropped against the US Dollar for five consecutive days, and there are fears that the European Central Bank (ECB) has not acted quickly enough to support the economy.

Germany, which is the economic powerhouse of the Eurozone, has been struggling during the course of this year.

The German economy contracted by -0.1% during the second quarter, and rumours are increasing that they may also be struggling during this quarter. Indeed, if the current quarter shows another contraction, this would mean that Germany will fall into a technical recession.

Typically this will have a negative effect on the value of the currency concerned, so this could see problems ahead for the Eurozone.

However, in my opinion, it will be Brexit that will be the over-riding factor, in terms of the impact for GBPEUR exchange rates.

With rumours also increasing that a general election may be called, this could also have a huge effect on Sterling in the near future.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying Euros, then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

When to buy Euros latest: Boris gives the Pound a boost

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BoJo bounce for the Pound vs the Euro

After an unsettled last few weeks, Boris Johnson has finally been announced as the 77th British Prime Minister. He won against Jeremy Hunt by a huge majority, and this gave the Pound a much needed boost against the Euro. The vote was made by 160,000 Tory members, which accounts for just 0.4% of the British population.

It was expected that Boris Johnson would win, as he was the strong favourite owing to his tough stance on Brexit. Jeremy Hunt was originally a supporter of the ‘Remain’ camp, and so the chances of him winning were already very low when the campaign started. The real issue for the Pound against the Euro is the uncertainty caused by Brexit and, with the summer recess due to start this week, time is running out.

The deadline for the deal to be concluded is at the end of October and this means that, when Parliament starts again following the break, it will be left with just two months to get a deal agreed. As far as I’m concerned this simply is not enough time, and I think this could move us towards either another extension or the possibility of a general election. Both of these could cause problems for the value of the Pound vs the Euro in the longer term.

Euro forecast: European Central Bank meeting may weaken Euro

Later this week, the ECB will hold their latest monetary policy meeting. Expectations are for a change in September, so any hints of further easing coming in the near future could see some Euro weakness vs the Pound. The ECB are considering whether to increase Quantitative Easing or cut interest rates once again, so this could cause problems for the single currency.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros, then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Tom Holian, teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Will the Euro rise? Brexit and Tory contest impacts forecast

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In today’s look at “will the Euro rise?”, we’ll examine how the Pound is still struggling to make any gains versus the Euro, and it looks as though this trend may continue.

The issue of Brexit continues to dominate investors’ appetite for Sterling, which is clearly under a huge amount of pressure.

The Pound has failed to make any inroads against the Euro and, whilst the Tory leadership election rumbles on and the uncertainty of Brexit continues, I cannot see the Pound making any real recovery.

The Euro managed to improve further during yesterday’s trading session after the latest Eurozone Services PMI data.

The figures came out better than expected at 53.6, and anything above 50.0 represents growth. This has given the single currency an additional boost as, although the Euro has been strong against the Pound, it has come under pressure versus the US Dollar.

This news is likely to mean that the European Central Bank will continue to keep interest rates on hold and monetary policy the same. Therefore, any signs of weakness for the Euro may not be coming. So if you’re considering buying Euros, it may be worth getting this organised in the near future.

Pound to Euro forecast

We begin next week with the latest industrial production data from Germany as well as import and export data. Another strong reading could see GBP/EUR exchange rates drop even further.

If you’re in the process of buying a property in Europe in the near future, and would like to guarantee your rate for the balance of the property, then it may be worth considering buying a forward contract.

I have personally worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003. I’m confident of being able to offer you bank-beating exchange rates when buying or selling Euros.

If you would like further information or a free quote, then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Will the Euro rise? Poor UK GDP data, Tory election concerns

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Euro hits best rate to buy Pounds in 5 months

In this examination of “Will the Euro rise?” we’ll see how the Pound made some small gains against the Euro during yesterday’s trading session, after hitting close to its lowest levels during 2019 on Monday. Early this week, we saw the Pound fall against the Euro after the release of lower than expected GDP data, which showed a fall.

This was exacerbated by the news from the car industry, which was at its lowest production levels since records began. This happened as many car producers reduced their production levels, in anticipation of Brexit taking place at the end of March. Owing to the uncertainty, car manufacturers had little choice but to close. This has had a knock-on effect on UK GDP data.

There is little economic data due out during the course of this week, so all eyes will remain focused on what is happening politically in the UK. At the moment, it appears as though ex-Mayor of London Boris Johnson is leading the polls, with Environment Secretary Michael Gove and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt closely behind.

Pound Euro exchange rate forecast

The real issue for the Pound is what impact any of the new leaders may have on Brexit, going forward. Therefore, during the next few weeks it should become clear which way the Pound vs the Euro might move, as their agendas are released.

In the meantime, Labour is planning moves in order to block a no-deal Brexit. This could be discussed in Parliament today. This is causing some concern for the Pound vs the Euro at the moment.

However, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, has recently claimed that “there will be no re-negotiations as far as the content of the withdrawal agreement is concerned.” Therefore, even when the new Prime Minister does come in, we may not see much further progress on Brexit.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers, I am confident that I can save you money when buying Euros, compared to using your own bank.

If you would like a free quote, then email me, Tom Holian, directly with a brief outline of your requirement. I look forward to hearing from you: teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Brexit uncertainty puts Pound v Euro forecast under pressure

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In this Pound v Euro forecast, it may interest you to know that support for the Prime Minister, Theresa May, has once again started to fall. This is because a number of senior Tories have voiced their reservations over current plans.

Many are against the plans to continue the talks between the Tories and the Labour Party, and at the moment they do not appear to be progressing.

The talks have been going for 6 weeks so far and, with few developments, I cannot see much further progress being made.

Therefore, as the House of Commons is due to be meeting early next month, to decide on yet another Brexit proposal, I think we could see more of the same.

Since the voting in the House of Commons on the subject of Brexit over the last few months, it has become very clear that MPs are not in favour of supporting the Brexit deal.

Another failed attempt to get the plan through is likely to put more pressure on Theresa May.

In her previous vote, Theresa May lost by a total of 48. So, I think it will be extremely difficult to get the support she needs to press ahead with Brexit.

Pound Euro exchange rate forecast

With the cross party talks failing, this has caused the Pound to fall to hit 1.14 during yesterday’s trading session. I think we could see further drops ahead for the Pound vs the Euro.

European elections are also just a week away, and this could put further pressure on the Pound against the Euro. This is because, if the Brexit party gets more support, this could provide more of a challenge to the political landscape.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank, then contact me directly for a free quote. I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Buy Euros: Brexit talks fail, could GDP give Pound a boost?

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In today’s look at when to buy Euros, I’ll tell you how the Pound has had a difficult last few days, after getting close to its best level in almost two years this time last week.

The Pound got close to hitting 1.18 last week, but fell just short, after it appeared as though the cross-party Brexit talks between the Tories and Labour were going well.

However, since the bank holiday weekend, the Pound has fallen by almost two cents. Sterling fell once again during yesterday’s trading session, when Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn claimed that Prime Minister Theresa May has done little to take things forward together.

This has seemingly put on hold any chances of Brexit being concluded in the near future, and is one of the main reasons for the Pound’s losses during the course of this week.

Later today, the UK will announce its latest set of GDP data, for the first quarter of 2019. The expectation is for an improvement from 1.4% to 1.8% year-on-year, so anything different is likely to cause volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates.

Pound v Euro forecast

Clearly, the Brexit uncertainty is still causing problems for the UK’s economy. However, I think owing to the good weather a few weeks ago, this could have had a positive effect on retail sales with consumer spending on the high street.

Therefore, we could potentially see some positive news for GDP and, if so, this could provide the Pound with a boost vs the Euro.

I have worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003. I’m confident that I save you money on exchange rates, compared to using your own bank or currency broker. I can also help you with the timing of your transfer, by keeping you up to date with market movements.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros, and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank, then contact me directly for a free quote. I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound v Euro forecast: What will happen next with Brexit?

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In this Pound v Euro forecast, I’ll tell you that, with the Brexit negotiations having been extended until the end of October, I am now seriously getting to the stage where I don’t think that Parliament will actually be able to deliver Brexit.

Since December, we have gradually seen the Pound improving against the Euro, and the various Brexit deals that have been put in front of MPs have been repeatedly rejected.

With the 29th March deadline now having passed with the UK extending Article 50, I think the longer this drags out, the less likely that Brexit will actually happen.

The European Union clearly does not want the UK to leave the bloc, as it could potentially mean that other countries may look to do the same. This could lead to the end of the European Union in the future.

This is why I think the EU is not prepared to negotiate much further than what it has previously offered.

The House of Commons have not come up with much of an alternative to the current offerings, and I think that Theresa May’s attempt to get Labour to help with the talks are a waste of time.

Clearly, the personalties of May and Corbyn are unlikely to agree on much, so I cannot see the benefits of trying to cobble something together.

Should I buy Euros now or wait?

In the short term, I think the Pound will continue to come under pressure against the Euro until we get further into the year. So, if you’re hoping to see much of an improvement in Sterling’s favour, then you might be waiting for some time.

Therefore, the chance of the Pound recovering may rely on the Euro coming under pressure in the months ahead.

We certainly have a tricky period ahead for the single currency, with the Spanish general election due to take place next week. Political uncertainty will often weaken the currency involved, so if you have a currency transfer to make, then pay close attention to the Spanish election coming up soon.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank, then contact me directly for a free quote. I look forward to hearing form you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.