Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Will the Pound continue to rise against the Euro this week?

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The Pound against the Euro has seen some very positive movements already during this month as the issue of Brexit appears to be going well as far as the UK is concerned at the moment.

Britain’s financial services minister John Glen has said that ‘we are increasingly positive on the expectation of reaching a deal’ and UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab also suggested only last week that a deal could be done by 21st November and this has provided the Pound with a lot of support vs the Euro recently.

We saw the release of some lower than expected UK Services news yesterday but the fall for Sterling exchange rates vs the Euro was rather brief and we saw the Pound continue to make gains during the afternoon and already this morning.

Later today the Cabinet will be meeting and will be discussing alternatives to the Irish backstop issue which has been a real sticking point for the Brexit talks and I think if the UK can get past this issue then I think the talks will move swiftly along and possibly even conclude this month.

Meanwhile, the Euro has been struggling against a number of different currencies including vs the US Dollar and the Pound owing to the issue between the Italian government and the European Union at the moment.

The current stalemate has been caused by the Italian budget plans which means that they will be spending more than they are allowed by EU rules that they agreed to back in July.

At the moment the EU have allowed Italy just over a week to redraft their budget plans or face a penalty which amounts to 0.2% of their current GDP level, something they are likely to want to avoid. Therefore, this is why we could see Pound Euro rates move towards 1.15 during the course of this week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Could a Brexit deal be reached this month and the impact on Pound Euro exchange rates?

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The Pound vs the Euro touched 1.14 during Friday’s trading session as it appears as though the tone towards Brexit is improving.

According to some reports the UK has been able to agree a deal for financial services with the European Union post-Brexit and this has helped push the Pound in an upwards direction vs the Euro.

This could be a huge coup for the Prime Minister as it means that businesses could be in a stronger position as this would help remove some uncertainty.

This news was followed by Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab’s claim that a final deal between the UK and the European Union could be agreed by 21st November. However, this has been denied by Downing Street who claimed that the story was speculative.

Meanwhile the tone from the Bank of England on Thursday was much more positive with the governor Mark Carney calming fears over a no-deal Brexit and that he fully expects a deal to be done between the UK and the European Union.

I am inclined to agree with him as there is too much at stake to not put a deal together and I think it will be a matter of time before things are resolved.

The real issue though is that even if the UK and the EU can come to some form of resolution the UK will still have to get the deal ratified in parliament and that could be very tricky as the Tories do not have a majority.

Next week the first important bit of economic data for the Eurozone will come with Retail Sales for the continent and we end next week with a huge amount of UK data.

Friday brings with it UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production data as well as UK GDP data so expect a busy end to the week if you’re planning a currency transfer.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Euros and would like a free quote then email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

A uncertain end to the month for the Pound vs the Euro with Brexit, Budget & Eurozone GDP data ahead

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The Pound has once again come under pressure vs the Euro after Prime Minister Theresa May suggested that the Brexit talks are 95% complete.

However, at the moment the real sticking point is the Irish border and until that is resolved I cannot see the Pound making any substantial gains. The European Union has not yet offered any alternatives and this is one of the major reasons for Sterling’s lack of support causing GBPEUR exchange rates to struggle.

The current suggestion offered by Theresa May is that the UK will remain in a customs union with Northern Ireland included but the EU have said they will only allow this to happen during the transitional period. However, this plan does not offer a permanent solution.

If both parties cannot agree on the terms of the border issue this will continue to pile pressure on Sterling exchange rates so if you’re planning to send money to Europe it may be worth getting this done in the near future.

On Monday Chancellor Philip Hammond will announce the latest Budget which could be a tricky one to deliver. Hammond will need to keep Tory voters and MPs happy with his plans as the party does not have a majority in parliament so if we do see any surprises this could cause movement on GBPEUR exchange rates.

On Tuesday we could see even further movement with the latest Eurozone GDP data for the third quarter. This will be the first estimate of the previous quarter with expectation for growth of 2.1% so anything different could cause a lot of volatility especially if the continent shows signs of a slowdown caused by the uncertainty of Brexit.

If you would like further information as to what is happening to GBPEUR exchange rates and would like a free quote then send me an email with a description of your requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

The calm before the storm of the EU Summit and the impact for the Pound vs the Euro

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Pound Sterling exchange rates vs the Euro have remained in a very tight range so far this week as it appears as though the markets are adopting a wait and see approach in anticipation of the EU summit due to start shortly.

Even this morning the markets have only moved by 15 pips on Sterling vs the Euro which is very unusual. The summit taking place will have the Brexit topic at the top of the agenda and at the moment the Irish border issue is still far from being concluded.

Today’s meeting was originally planned to conclude the talks but recently there have even been suggestions that the talks may even be extended by another year in order to allow time for a more planned Brexit rather than rushing through a deal.

If today’s summit ends with a further lack of clarity of what happens when and next I think this could cause problems for the Pound as it would mean the UK would be heading closer to a ‘no deal’ situation and although I don’t think this will ultimately happen, a lot of things will need to fall in to place and very quickly in order to navigate through what is a political and economic minefield.

If you’re planning to make a currency transfer in the near future it will be extremely important to make sure you’re well prepared for potentially a lot of market movement on Pound vs Euro exchange rates as the slightest news release could cause big swings on the markets.

Metaphorically speaking, today appears to be like standing at the fireworks display with a start time of 8pm but it’s now 8.15 and you’re thinking when or even if the display will start so be prepared for a very busy day ahead on GBPEUR rates.

If you’re in the process of buying a property in Europe and you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

EU Summit due next week and the Pound to Euro Outlook

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With the EU summit just a few days away could we be seeing a conclusion coming for the Brexit talks at the end of next week?

We have seen the Pound hit the best level to buy Euros for 3 months earlier this week but on Friday afternoon the GBPEUR exchange rate has started to fall as speculators appear to be trying to second guess what will happen next week on the foreign exchange markets.

The UK’s Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab is due in Brussels on Monday and he is there to try and get a deal organised prior to the summit due to take place on Wednesday.

I personally cannot see this happening next week and think that when the next summit takes place in November we could see a deal done by then and this could provide Sterling with its long await rally so up until then if you need to buy Euros in the short term it may be worth getting things organised in the near future as I think we could also see some large movements for the Pound vs the Euro next week especially during the two day summit as news filters out during the talks.

In the meantime Italy has been struggling as of late with its increasing trade deficit and at the moment they appear to be locking horns with the European Union as to what they will be spending on infrastructure so this particular news story will have further to run but in the meantime the over-riding influence for the Pound Sterling Euro rate will be that of Brexit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I’ll be in touch.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Sterling hits 3 month high against the Euro as Brexit talks going positively (Tom Holian)

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The Euro has been starting to show signs of a struggle recently against the Pound with GBPEUR exchange rates now trading at their best level to buy Euros for over 3 months.

EU Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested that the deal between the UK and the European Union is getting closer and this has encouraged investors to back the Pound giving it some real support vs the single currency.

Sterling has been trading in the 1.14 levels during the course of this week and we are now just 6 days away from the start of the EU summit which is likely to be crucial in terms of what will happen to Pound Sterling exchange rates in the weeks ahead.

The key topic will be that of Brexit and if a deal gets closer to being concluded this could give the Pound some real support against the Euro. It appears that behind the scenes talks are going well with the Irish border issue and in monetary terms this has moved the Pound Euro exchange rate by as much as €1,800 on a currency transfer of £100,00 which is welcome news for anyone looking to send money to Europe at the moment.

The other issue that has negatively affected the value of the Euro is what is happening in Italy at the moment. Credit ratings agency Moody’s have suggested that they may be ready to downgrade the country as the Italian government have said they will carry on with their public spending and tax plans which goes against the limits set out by the European Union.

The Italian government is set to submit its plans early next week and this could mean that Moody’s could look at downgrading them in the near future which could impact on the value of the Euro.

However, the over-riding issue will be that of the Brexit talks towards the end of next week so make sure you’re well prepared for a volatile end to next week.

A lot of my clients have been opting for a forward contract in recent times to avoid the uncertainty so if you would like to find out more about the options available and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound falls against the Euro as Brexit talks at a stalemate (Tom Holian)

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The Pound has fallen by two cents vs the Euro during the course of the week as the pressure mounts on Sterling exchange rates.

The meeting on Thursday in Salzburg went badly for the UK with a number of EU leaders rejecting the Chequers plan offered by Prime Minister Theresa May.

She left the meeting disappointed and said if Chequers will not be approved then the EU will need to come up with their own plan.

Theresa May gave a statement on Friday afternoon which caused further losses for Sterling when she confirmed that the UK will not hold a second referendum. She has also suggested that she may be prepared to walk away from the talks if another solution is not offered by EU.

The Brexit talks are now at a stalemate and with the Irish border still not yet decided the UK remains in political limbo and this is why we saw the Pound collapse at the end of this week.

Meanwhile European Council President Donald Tusk has said that a Brexit compromise is still possible. He also went on to say ‘while understanding the logic of the negotiations, I remain convinced that a compromise, good for all, is still possible.’

During the course of this week the Pound has fallen by as much as £2,300 on a currency transfer of EUR100,000 which highlights the importance of keeping up to date with what is happening in the foreign exchange markets.

With further uncertainty ahead concerning the Brexit issue I think this could continue to weigh heavily on Sterling Euro exchange rates and until we get some form of clarity as to what is happening then I think we could see the Pound fall even further against the Euro.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Could we see further weakness ahead for the Pound vs the Euro as we head towards a no-deal Brexit? (Tom Holian)

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Sterling vs the Euro is now at its lowest rate to buy Euros during 2018 after struggling once again with the latest round of Brexit talks which highlights the huge problem the UK is now facing in the next few months.

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Brexit Secretary Michel Barnier have agreed to keep the talks ongoing with no stopping in order to get a resolution agreed as soon as possible before time runs out.

Indeed, there is speculation that the October deadline may even go into November so that a solution between the UK and the EU can occur in order for the UK government to have everything ratified by next March 2019.

However, at the moment it appears as though time is seriously running out and at the moment we are facing the potential of a no-deal Brexit.

The government have already issued 24 out of 80 papers focusing on what may happen if the UK can not come to an agreement and this has sent the Pound to its lowest level all year vs the Euro creating some excellent opportunities for those people looking to move money back from Europe to the UK.

The trade relationship between the UK and the European Union is still not decided and the Irish border issue remains outstanding with no clear answer as to how this will also be resolved which has continued to weigh heavily on Sterling exchange rates.

In the short term I think if you’re planning to buy Euros it may be worth getting this organised as I can only see the Pound falling against the single currency.

Having worked for one of the UK’s largest currency brokers for 15 years I am confident of being able to help offer you tips on how to maximise your rate of exchange when buying or selling Euros.

For further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound suffers against the Euro even after positive UK Retail Sales (Tom Holian)

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The Pound vs the Euro has once again come under some pressure after beginning the week positively making gains from the Turkish crisis.

The Pound has started to drift lower even though UK Retail Sales came out better than expected earlier on this morning. We have also seen UK unemployment close to its lowest level on record at 4% earlier this week and typically both sets of economic data would usually give the Pound a boost against the Euro and as we have seen this is not the case which demonstrates how much pressure the Pound is under at the moment vs the single currency.

The main reason for Sterling’s weakness is that of the ongoing Brexit issue and speculation is growing that we could be heading towards a no deal Brexit which could cause huge problems for the Pound if this happens.

The negative news appears to be causing a big problem for investor confidence and in my opinion the main reason for Sterling’s weakness against a number of different currencies including the Euro.

With the UK parliament currently on recess we have not had much further news on the subject of the Brexit talks so it appears as though investors are focusing on the most recent talks held not that long ago which didn’t appear to go very well.

Tomorrow morning the Eurozone releases the latest Current Account data as well as Eurozone inflation data and both have been very positive recently so I think if we see another couple of positive results then this could lead to Euro strength towards the end of this week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for further information or a free quote and  I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

UK & Eurozone Data to impact Pound Euro rates this week and what about Turkey? (Tom Holian)

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We are scheduled for potentially a very eventful day for anyone looking to buy Euros today with the release of a number of key economic data announcements.

We begin the morning with UK unemployment figures released at 930am which have been very promising over the last few months so another positive announcement could provide the Pound with a lift immediately following the release.

Shortly after this release the focus turns towards the Eurozone with the latest set of GDP data due out at 10am for the second quarter.

At the same time Eurozone Industrial Production data is also released and both have been positive lately so if they reach their target or shows signs of growth then this could strengthen the Euro later on this morning.

With a French bank holiday due for tomorrow the volatility today could present some good opportunities before what could arguably be one of the biggest days of the week with UK inflation data published at 930am tomorrow morning.

UK inflation has been a big reason for the Bank of England’s decision to recently raise interest rates so with 2.5% expected tomorrow, which is still well above the government’s 2% target, this could provide further evidence in support for the central bank to look at raising interest rates again and could give the Pound a boost.

Meanwhile the issue in Turkey appears to be causing some ripples across the financial markets with both the Spanish and French stock markets falling during yesterday’s trading session.

European banks have a large exposure to Turkey and if the problem is not resolved soon then this could potentially cause some problems for the Euro providing some good short term opportunities to buy Euros with Pounds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Further pressure on the Pound vs the Euro expected towards the end of this week (Tom Holian)

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After the Bank of England raised the interest rate last week in the UK the Pound is now trading at its lowest level against the Euro since last year. The hike was expected but the overall tone given by the central bank was rather dovish and hints have been given that we may even be headed towards a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has spoken out on the subject as well as UK Trade Secretary Liam Fox who have both suggested that the odds are increasing of a no deal and this has seriously affected the value of the Pound against a number of different currencies as well as against the Euro.

Indeed, since the Chequers meeting last month which saw a number of key resignations the Pound has been under of lot of pressure.

During the course of this week the Pound has been the worst performing currency out of the G10 nations and I expect this trend to continue.

Moving towards the end of the week we have the release of the latest set of UK GDP figures and this is likely to be the biggest mover of GBPEUR exchange rates over the next few days.

The expectation is for growth of 0.1% for the second quarter and anything lower could heap more pressure on the value of Sterling potentially sending rates to buy Euros in to the 1.10 levels by the end of this week.

Looking at everything that is happening in the UK at the moment it appears as if there is a lot more negative news than positive so my expectation is for further losses for the Pound vs the Euro and unless we get some positive news surrounding Brexit I think we’ll see more pressure on Sterling.

If you are in the process of buying a property abroad and are concerned about the future of the Pound it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

To find out more or for a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Bank of England hikes rates but Sterling falls against the Euro (Tom Holian)

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The Bank of England chose yesterday to increase interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% bringing rates back to where they were in 2009. The Pound spiked to close to 1.13 shortly after the announcement but fell back quickly to the lower end of the 1.12 region as the Bank of England held their press conference.

If you’ve read some of my other recent articles I predicted that the tone would be dovish and in part one of the reasons why I think the rate hike took place was to allow room for the central bank to cut rates next year if the Brexit talks stall.

Indeed, two years ago when the referendum took place the Bank of England cut interest rates in order to stabilise what was at the time a very anxious economy.

The interest rate cut was used to encourage consumers to keep on spending as well as reduce household debt and this allowed the economy to keep on going. Therefore, this is why I think we saw the rate rise yesterday in order for them to be cut next year if required.

The central bank had been predicted to raise interest rates three months ago but owing to the problems caused by the ‘Beast from the East’ it was decided to keep rates on hold.

The bank has now predicted that the fall in growth was simply a temporary blip and expect GDP to rise and continue to do so later this year.

However, some analysts have claimed that this was not the right time to hike rates as with all the uncertainty still with Brexit then it was not a good idea and this is another reason why the Pound fell during yesterday afternoon.

In terms of upwards movement for Sterling this month there is little to be hopeful of in terms of economic data so all eyes with continue to focus on the Brexit discussions due to meet again later this month.

Therefore, if you’re thinking about buying Euros it may be worth moving in the near future.

If you would like a free quote when buying currency then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being bale to offer you bank beating exchange rates.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.