Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Sterling hits 3 month high against the Euro as Brexit talks going positively (Tom Holian)

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The Euro has been starting to show signs of a struggle recently against the Pound with GBPEUR exchange rates now trading at their best level to buy Euros for over 3 months.

EU Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested that the deal between the UK and the European Union is getting closer and this has encouraged investors to back the Pound giving it some real support vs the single currency.

Sterling has been trading in the 1.14 levels during the course of this week and we are now just 6 days away from the start of the EU summit which is likely to be crucial in terms of what will happen to Pound Sterling exchange rates in the weeks ahead.

The key topic will be that of Brexit and if a deal gets closer to being concluded this could give the Pound some real support against the Euro. It appears that behind the scenes talks are going well with the Irish border issue and in monetary terms this has moved the Pound Euro exchange rate by as much as €1,800 on a currency transfer of £100,00 which is welcome news for anyone looking to send money to Europe at the moment.

The other issue that has negatively affected the value of the Euro is what is happening in Italy at the moment. Credit ratings agency Moody’s have suggested that they may be ready to downgrade the country as the Italian government have said they will carry on with their public spending and tax plans which goes against the limits set out by the European Union.

The Italian government is set to submit its plans early next week and this could mean that Moody’s could look at downgrading them in the near future which could impact on the value of the Euro.

However, the over-riding issue will be that of the Brexit talks towards the end of next week so make sure you’re well prepared for a volatile end to next week.

A lot of my clients have been opting for a forward contract in recent times to avoid the uncertainty so if you would like to find out more about the options available and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound falls against the Euro as Brexit talks at a stalemate (Tom Holian)

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The Pound has fallen by two cents vs the Euro during the course of the week as the pressure mounts on Sterling exchange rates.

The meeting on Thursday in Salzburg went badly for the UK with a number of EU leaders rejecting the Chequers plan offered by Prime Minister Theresa May.

She left the meeting disappointed and said if Chequers will not be approved then the EU will need to come up with their own plan.

Theresa May gave a statement on Friday afternoon which caused further losses for Sterling when she confirmed that the UK will not hold a second referendum. She has also suggested that she may be prepared to walk away from the talks if another solution is not offered by EU.

The Brexit talks are now at a stalemate and with the Irish border still not yet decided the UK remains in political limbo and this is why we saw the Pound collapse at the end of this week.

Meanwhile European Council President Donald Tusk has said that a Brexit compromise is still possible. He also went on to say ‘while understanding the logic of the negotiations, I remain convinced that a compromise, good for all, is still possible.’

During the course of this week the Pound has fallen by as much as £2,300 on a currency transfer of EUR100,000 which highlights the importance of keeping up to date with what is happening in the foreign exchange markets.

With further uncertainty ahead concerning the Brexit issue I think this could continue to weigh heavily on Sterling Euro exchange rates and until we get some form of clarity as to what is happening then I think we could see the Pound fall even further against the Euro.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Could we see further weakness ahead for the Pound vs the Euro as we head towards a no-deal Brexit? (Tom Holian)

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Sterling vs the Euro is now at its lowest rate to buy Euros during 2018 after struggling once again with the latest round of Brexit talks which highlights the huge problem the UK is now facing in the next few months.

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Brexit Secretary Michel Barnier have agreed to keep the talks ongoing with no stopping in order to get a resolution agreed as soon as possible before time runs out.

Indeed, there is speculation that the October deadline may even go into November so that a solution between the UK and the EU can occur in order for the UK government to have everything ratified by next March 2019.

However, at the moment it appears as though time is seriously running out and at the moment we are facing the potential of a no-deal Brexit.

The government have already issued 24 out of 80 papers focusing on what may happen if the UK can not come to an agreement and this has sent the Pound to its lowest level all year vs the Euro creating some excellent opportunities for those people looking to move money back from Europe to the UK.

The trade relationship between the UK and the European Union is still not decided and the Irish border issue remains outstanding with no clear answer as to how this will also be resolved which has continued to weigh heavily on Sterling exchange rates.

In the short term I think if you’re planning to buy Euros it may be worth getting this organised as I can only see the Pound falling against the single currency.

Having worked for one of the UK’s largest currency brokers for 15 years I am confident of being able to help offer you tips on how to maximise your rate of exchange when buying or selling Euros.

For further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound suffers against the Euro even after positive UK Retail Sales (Tom Holian)

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The Pound vs the Euro has once again come under some pressure after beginning the week positively making gains from the Turkish crisis.

The Pound has started to drift lower even though UK Retail Sales came out better than expected earlier on this morning. We have also seen UK unemployment close to its lowest level on record at 4% earlier this week and typically both sets of economic data would usually give the Pound a boost against the Euro and as we have seen this is not the case which demonstrates how much pressure the Pound is under at the moment vs the single currency.

The main reason for Sterling’s weakness is that of the ongoing Brexit issue and speculation is growing that we could be heading towards a no deal Brexit which could cause huge problems for the Pound if this happens.

The negative news appears to be causing a big problem for investor confidence and in my opinion the main reason for Sterling’s weakness against a number of different currencies including the Euro.

With the UK parliament currently on recess we have not had much further news on the subject of the Brexit talks so it appears as though investors are focusing on the most recent talks held not that long ago which didn’t appear to go very well.

Tomorrow morning the Eurozone releases the latest Current Account data as well as Eurozone inflation data and both have been very positive recently so I think if we see another couple of positive results then this could lead to Euro strength towards the end of this week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for further information or a free quote and  I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

UK & Eurozone Data to impact Pound Euro rates this week and what about Turkey? (Tom Holian)

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We are scheduled for potentially a very eventful day for anyone looking to buy Euros today with the release of a number of key economic data announcements.

We begin the morning with UK unemployment figures released at 930am which have been very promising over the last few months so another positive announcement could provide the Pound with a lift immediately following the release.

Shortly after this release the focus turns towards the Eurozone with the latest set of GDP data due out at 10am for the second quarter.

At the same time Eurozone Industrial Production data is also released and both have been positive lately so if they reach their target or shows signs of growth then this could strengthen the Euro later on this morning.

With a French bank holiday due for tomorrow the volatility today could present some good opportunities before what could arguably be one of the biggest days of the week with UK inflation data published at 930am tomorrow morning.

UK inflation has been a big reason for the Bank of England’s decision to recently raise interest rates so with 2.5% expected tomorrow, which is still well above the government’s 2% target, this could provide further evidence in support for the central bank to look at raising interest rates again and could give the Pound a boost.

Meanwhile the issue in Turkey appears to be causing some ripples across the financial markets with both the Spanish and French stock markets falling during yesterday’s trading session.

European banks have a large exposure to Turkey and if the problem is not resolved soon then this could potentially cause some problems for the Euro providing some good short term opportunities to buy Euros with Pounds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Further pressure on the Pound vs the Euro expected towards the end of this week (Tom Holian)

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After the Bank of England raised the interest rate last week in the UK the Pound is now trading at its lowest level against the Euro since last year. The hike was expected but the overall tone given by the central bank was rather dovish and hints have been given that we may even be headed towards a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has spoken out on the subject as well as UK Trade Secretary Liam Fox who have both suggested that the odds are increasing of a no deal and this has seriously affected the value of the Pound against a number of different currencies as well as against the Euro.

Indeed, since the Chequers meeting last month which saw a number of key resignations the Pound has been under of lot of pressure.

During the course of this week the Pound has been the worst performing currency out of the G10 nations and I expect this trend to continue.

Moving towards the end of the week we have the release of the latest set of UK GDP figures and this is likely to be the biggest mover of GBPEUR exchange rates over the next few days.

The expectation is for growth of 0.1% for the second quarter and anything lower could heap more pressure on the value of Sterling potentially sending rates to buy Euros in to the 1.10 levels by the end of this week.

Looking at everything that is happening in the UK at the moment it appears as if there is a lot more negative news than positive so my expectation is for further losses for the Pound vs the Euro and unless we get some positive news surrounding Brexit I think we’ll see more pressure on Sterling.

If you are in the process of buying a property abroad and are concerned about the future of the Pound it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

To find out more or for a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Bank of England hikes rates but Sterling falls against the Euro (Tom Holian)

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The Bank of England chose yesterday to increase interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% bringing rates back to where they were in 2009. The Pound spiked to close to 1.13 shortly after the announcement but fell back quickly to the lower end of the 1.12 region as the Bank of England held their press conference.

If you’ve read some of my other recent articles I predicted that the tone would be dovish and in part one of the reasons why I think the rate hike took place was to allow room for the central bank to cut rates next year if the Brexit talks stall.

Indeed, two years ago when the referendum took place the Bank of England cut interest rates in order to stabilise what was at the time a very anxious economy.

The interest rate cut was used to encourage consumers to keep on spending as well as reduce household debt and this allowed the economy to keep on going. Therefore, this is why I think we saw the rate rise yesterday in order for them to be cut next year if required.

The central bank had been predicted to raise interest rates three months ago but owing to the problems caused by the ‘Beast from the East’ it was decided to keep rates on hold.

The bank has now predicted that the fall in growth was simply a temporary blip and expect GDP to rise and continue to do so later this year.

However, some analysts have claimed that this was not the right time to hike rates as with all the uncertainty still with Brexit then it was not a good idea and this is another reason why the Pound fell during yesterday afternoon.

In terms of upwards movement for Sterling this month there is little to be hopeful of in terms of economic data so all eyes with continue to focus on the Brexit discussions due to meet again later this month.

Therefore, if you’re thinking about buying Euros it may be worth moving in the near future.

If you would like a free quote when buying currency then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being bale to offer you bank beating exchange rates.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Meeting at Chequers to determine how Sterling will perform against the Euro this month

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The Pound has started the week off against the Euro where it left off from Friday evening. Little has changed over the weekend and as yet there has been little news from the EU summit to move the markets.

The next meeting to discuss the Brexit process will take place on Friday when senior ministers in the UK will meet at Chequers.

According to some reports Downing Street has produced a third model concerning the customs deal for when the UK leaves the European Union.

This has so far caused a lot of problems with the Tories but Theresa May hopes that Friday’s meeting could resolve any outstanding issues within the party.

A white paper is due to be published after the meeting which will cover ‘in more detail what strong partnership the UK wants to see with the EU in the future.’

The EU summit did little to push things further and with the final agreement set to be arranged by October it appears as though time is running out and this is causing uncertainty for Sterling exchange rates.

Turning the focus back to what is happening economically both here and on the continent we see the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data due out on Tuesday morning.

Last month UK Retail Sales came out much better than expected in part owing to the improved weather recently so if the Eurozone publishes some strong figures tomorrow we could see GBPEUR exchange rates move in a negative direction.

There is little other economic data due out this week for both the UK and the Eurozone so all eyes will likely to be focused on what happens with the meeting at Chequers later this week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Sterling under pressure against the Euro (Tom Holian)

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On the weekend there were reports that 100,000 people were marching across London to protest about not being allowed a final vote on the Brexit topic after the vote in the House of Commons last week.

Both the leaders of the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats were in attendance but clearly Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn avoided the event.

More pressure may be mounting on Theresa May as there are concerns from the Defence Minister if he does not receive £20bn which is what has been suggested that they need.

All this in fighting is not helping the Conservative party and is causing the government to face a bit of instability and this is never good for the currency involved in this case the Pound.

The Pound did make some gains towards the end of last week when the Bank of England voted in favour of keeping interest rates on hold at 6-3 which was the first time we have seen 3 members of the MPC vote for a rate hike.

With UK Retail Sales coming out a lot better than expected recently this was one of the reasons given by the central bank for a change in the voting pattern.

On Wednesday Mark Carney will be addressing the markets to reveal the reasons why monetary policy stayed the same last week and he could give us some insight as to what the Bank of England may look at doing going forward.

Later in the week Consumer confidence will be announced followed by the final revision of UK GDP figures on Friday.

Eurozone inflation data will be released on Friday morning and this could influence what the European Central Bank will do concerning monetary policy. With the ECB having announced an end to their QE programme recently any changes to inflation could cause some volatility for the Pound vs the Euro at the end of the week.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank. If you would like a free quote or further information then please email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Euro under pressure and what will the Bank of England do on Thursday?

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The Euro has been under a lot of pressure recently after the European Central Bank made a number of changes to both economic policy and their growth forecasts.

The ECB has announced that it will be bringing their QE Programme to an end in December 2017 and it also cut their growth forecast for this year but kept the next two years the same.

The real problem for the Euro’s weakening is that the chances of an interest rate hike now appear to be a long way from now with some predictions that they may not hike rates until the end of 2019. The single currency has struggled since against the Dollar and fell against the Pound.

In the next hour ECB President Mario Draghi will be taking centre stage to address the markets about the recent changes. The reason why he adopts this approach is to ensure that the message remains in line with the previous meeting to ensure that no incorrect assumptions are made.

Depending on the tone of the speech this could cause further movement on GBPEUR exchange rates so make sure you’re prepared for any potential movement on rates.

For me the biggest event of the week is likely to come on Tuesday with the Bank of England due to hold their latest interest rate decision.

Previously the vote has been split 7-2 in favour of keeping rates on hold but with Retail Sales last week coming out much higher than expected could this potentially change any of the minds of the MPC?

If so, this could send GBPEUR rates upwards with 1.15 a possibility if we see a 6-3 split.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked for one of the UK’s longest established currency brokers since 2003 I am confident that I can make the process simple and cost effective.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

EU Withdrawal Bill and the impact on Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

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As predicted in my previous article the Pound started the week off on the back foot against the Euro after lower than expected Industrial and Manufacturing Production data.

Manufacturing fell by the biggest monthly drop in almost 6 years by falling 1.4% during April.

UK Trade Balance figures also showed a big drop with the trade deficit widening to £9.7bn from February to April. Combined with this we saw the latest NIESR GDP data which showed a fall to 0.2% which was lower than the expected figure of 0.3% highlighting evidence of a slowdown caused by the Brexit uncertainty.

With the EU Withdrawal Bill due to be debated in the House of Commons over the next couple of days we could be in for a very volatile period for GBPEUR exchange rates depending on the outcome of the result.

Theresa May is likely to be supported by the DUP as MPs will be debating 14 changes to the Bill made by the House of Lords recently. However, some Tory back benchers may not support the changes and this could cause a problem for the government and therefore this could be reflected negatively with Pound vs the Euro exchange rate.

If May does not win the vote this could mean that Theresa May does not have full control of the negotiations going forward and with a key EU summit due to take place on June 28th this could really cause problems for the Pound.

Therefore, if you’re considering making a currency transfer then keep a close eye out on GBPEUR exchange rates during the next couple of days as we could be in for a lot of movement.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I work for one of the UK’s longest established currency brokers and I’m confident I can also help you with the timing.

Email me directly

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

House of Commons and ECB Meeting to determine the short term value of Pound vs Euro rates

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We could be in for a very exciting week ahead for anyone looking to buy or sell Euros.

On Tuesday the House of Commons will be debating the EU withdrawal bill over two days after the challenge by the House of Lords who rejected some of the previous terms recently.

The UK government will be keen to get this agreed as the next EU summit will take place on 28th June and they will want to show both a unified and organised front.

The other important news will come on Thursday when the European Central Bank will meet to discuss their latest monetary policy and QE programme.

The QE programme will likely be at the top of the agenda and at the moment it is planned to finish in September.

However, ECB president Mario Draghi has said that they will do everything ‘necessary’ to maintain the economy.

Therefore, it could be very interesting to see what they say during the press conference. If they hint that QE may be coming to an end this could strengthen the Euro as once QE stops the next plan would be to raise interest rates in the future. However, having said this any rate hike will clearly be a long way from today.

The GBPEUR exchange rate remained in a very tight range during the course of this week and I think people are adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach with the two events covered above so I expect to see a lot of movement during the next week.

Therefore, if you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Enjoy your weekend!

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.