Category Archives: Euro Strength

Euro rates push through 1.2550, is this a good time to sell Euros? (Mike Vaughan)

Yesterday’s inflation figures came out weaker than forecast at 0.4% rather than the expected 0.5%. This brings back into question the concerns regarding deflationary pressures.

Some of the major problems with deflation can be the lack of consumer spending as the general public expects prices to continue to fall and this in turn can increase the real value of money and the real value of debt. Deflation therefore makes it more difficult for debtors to pay off their debts. For this reason consumers and firms have to spend a bigger percentage of disposable income on meeting debt repayments.

Falling inflation will bring further concerns and will make the next Thursdays ECB interest rate meeting one to watch. One green shoot for the Euro Zone was yesterday’s better unemployment resulting in GBP/EUR briefly pushing below 1.26.

For me I believe this pairing will stay range bound between 1.2550 to 1.2650, in fact over the past week it has only moved 0.50 cent. With inflation still a major issue for the Euro Zone this is likely to hamper and short term gains.  However the UK is also starting to see much of its data begin to slow (housing market, retail sales for example) this is also set to keep the pound in check.

When making a decision regarding your money exchange it is important to get as much information as you can to help with the timing and to try and maximise your transfer. As a specialist foreign exchange broker we have access to multiple sources to attract the best rates for our clients. To ensure you are getting the best deal for your transfer contact the office for more information as to how we can help. Email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

Will the Euro strengthen?

The Euro continues to suffer as investors favour both the pound and the dollar. GBPEUR has lately reached a 2 year high and EURUSD a 9 month low. Both the US and the UK are in the process of considering tightening monetary policy whilst the Eurozone are pondering lower interest rates or indeed QE .

I personally expect the Euro to remain under pressure as today’s data shows how the Inflation rate had fallen. On the flipside we did actually see the Unemployment rate fall down lower which has to an extent improved the outlook but there are still lots of unanswered questions on the Euro.

For more information on your currency exchange please contact me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Huge Day Today With The Release Of European CPI and EU Unemployment – Expect Volatile Euro Exchange Rates As A Result (Colm Gilhooly)

Today is a big day for the Euro as we see the release of the latest European CPI data at 10.00 this morning with the EU unemployment rate being published at exactly the same time.  Given low inflation has been one of the chief concerns for the European Central Bank recently, and was one of the reasons for the recent interest rate cut which weakened the Euro, I expect considerable volatility if the figure come out any different to the 0.5%.

This is because it would increase the possibility that the ECB may take further action soon to try and combat the risk of deflation and try and kick-start economic growth.  They have left the door open for further intervention at previous press conferences, and whilst I am not convinced they will take action in August, a low figure will surely weigh on the Euro.  Added to this would be the jobs figure which again needs to at least stabilise, if not improve, to allow the Euro to fight back a little.  Once again should the rate come out worse than the 11.6% we could be in for another bumpy road for the single currency.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros then today could be a key day for the short term future of the single currency as markets will likely take the inflation data very seriously.  If you would like to make a currency transfer and want to find out more about our currency exchange services, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to talk you through how things work, and suggest a few options depending on your exact requirements.  It could save you a lot of money compared with your bank or brokerage and there is no obligation to use us so why not get in touch and find out how to get the best exchange rate?

GBPEUR rate forecast – When to buy the euro

The single currency has held steady this week so far against the pound. This morning the single currency reported consumer confidence figures and industrial confidence figures as the new cycle of economic data we released. These came out widely as expected and gave the euro a small gain. Eyes are really now on inflation data from the European Central Bank released tomorrow morning. This is key in central policy change within the bank as it allows them to calculate spending patterns by the population which is the largest contributor to the economic recovery. Generally the more people have to spend in the shops changes the speed and depth of the recovery being felt across a majority of Europe.

Longer afield next week we have a host of economic data scheduled to be released from both side of the channel and is widely expected to create volatility in the currency market and with it opportunity. Economic data releases are generally scaled 1 to 3, 3 being the most influential on the currency market and one being the least. For example an interest rate decision by the central bank is more powerful in moving the currency markets than the amount of car sales. Here we have access to these scheduled releases plus forecast expectations for each. This allows us to pin point potential days of interest when markets could provide opportunities. Plus with the knowledge that we have award winning exchange rates you can be sure that our service will save you money if you have access to the currency market. Simply put if that was not the case we would not be in business.

To get in contact for more information please email the author STEVE EAKINS via his personal email address hse@currencies.co.uk

Will Tomorrow’s Eurozone Inflation Data Boost the EUR? (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR has found support against GBP around 1.27 and the question now is whether it can make any sustained inroads against the Pound? The EUR still sits close to a two year low against Sterling but I do not expect this trend to continue indefinitely, which is why anyone buying EUR should be considering their position around the current levels.

Eurozone data this morning was mixed and did little to lift the markets. The release of tomorrow’s Eurozone inflation and unemployment data is now likely to be key in determining the next major move for the single currency. Personally I still feel the EUR is being handicapped by too many outside variables and stagnation inside the Eurozone region, which until resolved, is likely to keep the EUR on the back foot against the other major currencies, in particular the Pound.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Thursday remains a key day for the Euro (Daniel Wright)

A fairly quiet week in terms of economic data so far and we still have very little to get the juices flowing until Thursday for those following Euro exchange rates.

Thursday brings us European CPI (Consumer Price Index) data which is important inflation data and could be very important as to what we hear at the next European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference.

Part of the reason that the ECB cut interest rates was due to the fear of deflation and they have stated they would not be afraid to act again if inflation does not improve which may be in the way of a rate but (which is now difficult) or by introducing Quantitative Easing (pumping more money in the economy) which generally even the mere mention of can lead to a currency weakening away.

If you have Euros to buy or indeed to sell then Thursday could be the day where you see a spike in your favour. The company I work for has won many awards for our rates of exchange and proactive, high level of customer service so I should be able to help you get more for your money too.

Feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk if you feel I could be of assistance and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally to explain the service and how i can help.

Whats in store for the Euro this week? (Mike Vaughan)

On what has been a relatively quiet day for the Euros below I have listed the key data sets to focus on this week and the impact they could have on the Euro:

- Tuesday at 08:00 Spain – Retail Sales figures. Expected to increase month in month from 0.5% to 1% and could lend some support to the Euro early tomorrow.

- Wednesday 08:00 Spain – GDP data – expected to show a small increase from 0.4% to 0.5% and again could lend support to the Euro.

- Wednesday 10:00 – Euro Zone consumer confidence. Expected to fall, something that could impact the Euro negatively.

- Wednesday 13:00 – German CPI. With the Euro Zone still experiencing problems with deflation, falling inflation in the zones largest economy will more  than likely weaken the single currency. Month on month figures expected to fall from 0.3% to 0.2%

- Thursday 07:00 – German retail sales data followed by unemployment figures at 08:55.

- Thursday 10:00 – Euro Zone inflation figures. As with the German CPI, any fall in figures will probably cause Euro weakness.

As you can there is plenty of data scheduled for release this week. Should you need to arrange a currency exchange and need more information on the various contract types available and how our currency service operates then please get in touch. As one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokers we have access to multiple sources helping us to maximise our clients exchange. Te get more information please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Drops During Thursday Morning Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR has made gains against both GBP and the USD during Thursday morning’s trading, relieving some pressure on the single currency. GBP/EUR rates have dropped back below 1.27 on the exchange, following positive Eurozone PMI data this morning. There was also negative data for the UK, with Retail Sales figures coming out much worse than expected. This seems to have halted the Pound’s rise and it will be interesting to see whether the single currency can now start to put pressure back on 1.26 following this morning’s economic releases.

The EUR has been struggling to make any sustained inroads, particularly against GBP. GBP/EUR had crept up to a fresh two year high yesterday but the single currency found market support around that level and Sterling may well have hit a glass ceiling. I anticipate further economic difficulties for the Eurozone, so if you are holding EUR and wish to protect yourself against further market losses then one of our forward contracts can protect you from any adverse movement.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

What can we expect this week for Euro exchange rates?

This week data from the Eurozone is fairly light but it seems reasonable to expect the Euro will remain on the back foot. Disinflationary pressures continue to leave a mark on the Euro, PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) data this week will give us some new information to work with but until Inflation can rise higher the spectre of Quantitative Easing or lower interest rates should rule out any strengthening of the Euro.

For assistance moving funds internationally including bringing Euros back from overseas please speak with me to discuss the various options available to you. Even though the Euro has lost lots of ground against a much stronger pound in 2014 (as you can see from the chart above) historically rates are nowhere near as bad for selling Euros as they were prior to the financial crisis.

It would seem reasonable to expect that so long as the UK economy continues on the current trajectory we will slowly see a return to more ‘historical’ rates for the Euro against the pound. Anyone selling a property or investment overseas and looking to return to the UK may wish to consider the ‘forward contract’ option. This will allow you to fix the price once a sale is agreed removing the uncertainty guaranteeing any pending UK purchase or investment.

Please speak to me to learn more about exploring the options available for your situation. Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Markets Still Waiting On Signals From The Bank Of England And The ECB (Colm Gilhooly)

In what is likely to prove a quiet day for UK and European data, the main focus is likely to be on tomorrow’s Bank of England Minutes and UK GDP on Friday for the pound, with the Euro likely to be hugely dependent on the next move from the ECB in August.

Most UK data of late has been very good, and there has been growing calls for the BofE to raise interest rates sooner than the early 2015 that most people were anticipating at the beginning of this year.  However last month all 9 members voted to hold interest rates despite some seeming to suggest in public that rate rises should be considered, and this month the decision was once again to hold rates although we don’t know how each member voted yet.  Tomorrow will reveal this so if any member has voted for a hike then it potentially brings forward the prospect of a rate hike, however if the decision is a unanimous hold again sterling could slip due to the fact a rate hike could still be a way off.

UK GDP is expected to be good, and we are forecast to be the fastest growing of all the G7 countries.  I expect Friday to reinforce this so overall the picture for the pound is looking good with the only big swings caused by UK interest rate forecasts. Hence tomorrow being very important.

I expect the Euro to remain under pressure in the short term as investors are still very nervous about what the ECB may do going forwards as they have left the door open for more action if required.  EU inflation is still very low and recent European debt to GDP ratios are still very worrying, so unless things start picking up very quickly there could be a lot of pressure put on the single currency.  EU unemployment figures come out on the 31st so be prepared in advance of this.

The biggest data today will be US inflation so expect a lot of USD EUR variation and a knock on effect to the pound as well.  The US rate decision isn’t until next week but expect a low inflation figure today to pave the way for more dovish comments from the Fed.  If you need to make a euro transfer into any major currency and would like assistance getting the best rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our service works.

GBP/EUR at 1.2650, is this a good time to buy the Euro? (Mike Vaughan)

Following sterling’s strong shift this week the pound has started on the back foot against the single currency this morning but is still trading at strong levels around the 1.2650 mark. The main focus this morning will be Euro Zone inflation figures at 10:00 – forecast to stay the same and could be a slight non event, however should levels fall below the current level then expect further pressure on the Euro and a potential shift through 1.27 GBP/EUR and 1.35 EUR/USD.

Tomorrow will also see the release of the Euro Zones trade balance figures.

Should you need to arrange a currency exchange and need more information on the various contract types available and how our currency service operates then please get in touch. As one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokers we have access to multiple sources helping us to maximise our clients exchange. Te get more information please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling Euro exchange rates close in on two year high despite average earnings dropping (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has still made further gains against the Euro in trading today, even with average earnings for the U.K dropping  a little which may slightly slow the chance of an interest rate change as soon as may have been thought yesterday.

Wage growth vs inflation is one of the key factors for the Bank of England to look at raising interest rates in the U.K however this does not appear to have knocked the Sterling strength train off of its tracks and it is indeed up against the Euro for the day at the time of writing this.

An interest rate hike for an economy generally leads to a spike in value for the currency associated to it and with the markets moving on speculation as well as fact the mere rumor of a hike coming closer can strengthen a currency significantly.

This is an extremely key time for the Euro as we have not only recently had a rate cut but also the mention of the prospect of QE (Quantitative Easing) which may also damage it a little.

If you have an upcoming transfer to carry out and want to get the best exchange rates along with great customer service and knowledge of the markets then email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  I welcome all contact for bank to bank transfers however i’m afraid I cannot help with cash transactions or speculation.