Category Archives: Euro Strength

Will GBPEUR continue to trade above 1.30? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling sellers have been presented with some favourable exchange rates recently, as the polls continue to place the ‘Remain’ campaigns in the lead.

News of the ‘Remain’ lead has resulted in Sterling strength as investors feel more comfortable holding money in Pounds whilst there’s a low chance of major changes politically in future. It’s political uncertainty that weighs on currency rates, and this pattern is what Sterling sellers will need to pay close attention to as I think it’s highly likely that should the polls change, so will Sterling’s fortune.

The Pound is currently trading at a 4 month high against the Euro, and personally I’m expecting GBP to fall slightly in the lead up to the Referendum next month on the 23rd as I’m expecting headwinds between now and then. Should any major figures offer their support to the leave camp, I think Sterling could see weakness similar to when Boris Johnson informed us that he’s pro-brexit.

The Euro is facing challenges of it’s own as the ECB’s aggressive financial stimulus packages fail to re-ignite the Eurozone economy which is why I’m expecting the Pound to hold on to some of its recent gains, but not all of them. I think that as we approach the Referendum GBPEUR will be around the 1.28 mark which means that from current levels, I expect GBP to fall by around 3 cents.

If you have an upcoming GBPEUR currency exchange to make you would like to discuss, feel free to contact me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Buying Euro rates near four-month highs (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR exchange rates have seen their second consecutive day of serious gains on the currency markets, as buying Euro rates saw 1% gains daily between Tuesday and Wednesday.

The feature of these tempting gains which had been absent until now was that there were sticking. Spikes and dips had until now characterized GBP/EUR exchange rates given the agitated nature of investors and banks in the run up to the Referendum vote.

But the first two weeks of May produced the most stable period for buying Euro rates since the beginning of the year, barely changing between 1.26-7, has given greater confidence to the market-place. Regular trading patterns which had been disrupted initially by Referendum uncertainty have re-emerged among the traders at high street banks (the ones who move the volumes large enough to effect currency exchange rates), giving the Pound some more life.

Effectively, the recent stability has allowed investors to delay jumping ship too early before the vote. When GBP/EUR hit 1.21 in April this shows that many had been prone to doing so.

Yet polls for the vote four weeks away are still uncertain. The remain camp has been boosted (another factor in increased stability), but the wide margin in the results doesn’t inspire confidence in the numbers.

Ipsos-Novi had the Remain camp up by 8 points in their telephone poll whilst the Leave camp were up by 4 in their online poll. Polling companies aren’t regaining the confidence they lost from the May election last year.

With normal trading activities having re-emerged, Euro buyers should be wary of growth figures coming out later this morning for the UK economy. This has been a sticking point monthly this year, and in April it was even confirmed that for the first time in almost three years, the Eurozone outpaced the UK’s growth.

With so much left to chance over the next four weeks, and with the growth figures out today set to dominate the economic rhetoric on Pound value until Wednesday when the new month begins and fresh data is released, Euro buyers may be wise to seize the 10 cent movements in your favour since April.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and the current buying levels as they are today can actually be fixed in place to avoid any pitfalls surround the upcoming Referendum affecting planned currency exchanges later in the year. A brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

Euro sellers can also do the same, and I can outline the options open to you to minimise your risk on the currency markets ahead of the EU vote. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

Will the Euro rate gain or lose against Sterling and the Dollar this week? (Daniel Wright)

We have very little in  terms of key economic data out for Europe this week but there is still plenty out there in the global economy that may impact where the Euro sits at the end of the trading week.

My personal opinion is that I feel the Euro could be set for a tough time in the coming weeks, we still have troubles for Greece and a number of other economies within the Eurozone and the referendum in the U,K may well weigh heavily on the Euro as well as Sterling. The reason for this is that should the U.K decide to leave the EU (although this looks unlikely at present) then this may open the door for a number of other countries to look to follow suit which could be really bad news for the EU and indeed the Euro.

This morning we have net borrowing figures in the U.K which may impact Sterling and later today we have new home sales data out in the States.

My personal opinion is that I would not be surprised to see GBP/EUR go back through 1.30 by the end of this week  and EUR/USD to remain fairly range bound.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Euro for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

GBP/EUR rates touch back into 1.28 briefly (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates have seen heavy volatility to begin the week, but all concentrated within the 1.28-1.29 trading bracket for GBP/EUR. After staying above 1.30 for a period of 34 hours last week, Sterling’s characteristic ‘fits’ of strength we’ve seen so far this year seems to be being repeated, with another net loss being recorded so far today.

With no data of note being released today markets seem to be looking ahead to tomorrow’s growth figures for the EU economy and are already beginning to price the positive outcome forecasted, with the Euro up against all major currency pairings, included the US Dollar, Australian Dollar, and the most commonly requested pairing on this website – the Pound.

Last month it was revealed that for the first time in nearly three years growth in the Eurozone outpaced that of the UK. The first quarter of 2016 showed only 0.4% growth in the UK, and 0.6% growth across the Channel. This is a reflection of the difficult year the UK economy has been having (the steel crisis and looming Referendum to name but a few points of concern), whilst the Eurozone is finally beginning the feel the positive effects of incredibly cheap credit (with base rates now at 0%) and a 400% increase in foreign investment compared to last year.

On Tuesday Euro growth figures will be released, and on Thursday our own growth figures in the UK will be scrutinized. As such if both figures come in as expected it is likely that GBP/EUR will be falling throughout the week.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to explore a strategy for your transfer which suits you, and is geared towards maximising your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere. Simply email me with your requirement then I can respond to discuss the options open to you through a currency exchange specialist, alongside a free, no obligation quote to give you a full idea on how our service can assist you.

If your transfer in not until later into the year, these current levels can also be fixed in place to avoid the potential pitfalls associated with waiting across the volatile Referendum period.

Euro sellers can also get in contact, and I will explain how best to manage the movements ahead of the June vote. Whilst movements are expected to be in your favour, it is best to have protection in cause any sudden and unexpected events affect your transfer. 

Sterling Slides from 3 Month High (James Lovick)

The pound has slipped from its recent peak against both the Euro and US dollar following the most recent EU referendum poll which put the Remain campaign firmly in front. GBP EUR has just slipped from a 3 month high although rates remain very attractive for this pair.

The fear engine for the Remain campaign has gone into overdrive again with George Osborne and David Cameron suggesting Britain will most likely go into a recession if Britain decides to leave the EU. They have also said that house prices will go down. With GDP running at just 0.4% for the first quarter at the moment then my view is that we may go into a recession anyway whether we stay in the EU or not. A cooling of the housing market which would affect everyone equally probably wouldn’t be a bad thing, especially for first time buyers trying to get on to the property ladder. Expect more volatility going forward as politics are very much the driving force for sterling exchange rates .

UK GDP numbers are released on Thursday and for me will be the main event this week for the pound. A weak figure is likely to result in sterling weakness. I am expecting to see a lower figure at just 0.3% which is in line with the expectation from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. It would appear there is a much greater chance of the pound weakening rather than climbing higher with a looming referendum and considering sterling’s recent rapid rise higher.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement either buying or selling and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively you can email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk

Buying Euro rates above 1.30 for 34 hours last week (Joshua Privett)

Rates for buying Euros were above 1.30 last week for the first time since February, after a productive Wednesday and Thursday for Sterling on the currency markets.

The Pound was up in all major pairings following three consecutive performance figures for the UK economy, which were received as a breath of fresh air for markets, who were subjected almost two weeks of complete stagnation on GBP/EUR exchange rates.

On average this year the difference between the high and the low daily on GBP/EUR has been 1.5 cents, yet the previous 10 days of trading yielded almost no change of the 1.26-1.27 trading band.

Whilst I can admit this was a relief at the office after what has seemed an incredibly fast-paced year, I can empathise with the multitude of people with a vested interest in Euro buying rates who were faced with a difficult decision during this period – where are the rates going to go from here?

As stated this was partially answered by the mid-week boost to the Pound and the near 4 cent gains on buying Euro rates between Wednesday and close of play Thursday. Positive wage, employment, and retail sales figures for the UK economy were the driving force behind the Pound’s resurgence.

However, the overwhelming consensus, seen most notably in reports by HSBC and Goldman Sachs, is that this is not the beginning of a new trend, and this view likely contributed to the Pound’s heavy falls on Friday’s trading.

The surprisingly positive data can be attributed to introduction of summer weather (although patchy) earlier in April. This allowed industries traditionally dormant until late May or June to wake early and begin contributing to UK performance, explaining why a sudden rise in retail sales coincided with a rise in employment.

Therefore this is not evidence of a long-term turnaround. This is set to be confirmed this week with growth data for both the Eurozone and the UK to be released to the marketplace on Tuesday and Thursday.

In April it was stated by the Office of National Statistics that the Eurozone had actually reported higher growth than the UK of 0.6% during the first quarter of 2016 than the 0.4% recorded solely on our side of the Channel.

Growth is everything. Growth shows whether an investment is worthwhile, and without this vote of confidence the value of the Pound will likely slide further away from these near 4 month highs as the final week of May continues.

The conservative view is that these buying rates for Euros are a gift on the marketplace, when no-one expected such opportunities this close to a Referendum still filled with uncertainty. It now seems that the gamble in this situation for anyone holding Sterling is waiting to buy your Euros.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk

If you outline your requirement and the time frame within which you plan to conduct your transfer, then we can begin a discussion to determine the most suitable option open to you through a currency exchange specialist which suits you with a view to maximizing your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and a brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

Euro sellers can also get in contact to have a similar conversation on your options, though in this instance my thoughts will sway towards waiting for the news next week to re-coup the losses incurred to you over the last week of trading. With the near two-cent losses on GBP/EUR during Friday’s trading, the market momentum is certainly in your favour.

Sterling exchange rates SPIKING.

GBPEUR levels have climbed this morning following a change in market view on behalf of the EURO. So this is not Sterling strength but EURO weakness.  Rates are now towards the top levels seen for 6 weeks and not expected to climb further, the opportunity to buy these highs will probably pass by this evening. Most SPIKES are short lived.

To take advanatage of these gains please get incontact now – email HSE@Currencies.co.uk

To regester for SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS moving forward please also email HSE@Currencies.co.uk with a summary of your situation – GBPEUR BUYER or EURGBP BUYER

This internal arguments within the ECB has been very public and has been on on-going. Since the bank brought in a range of new policies, cutting interest rates, changing the amount of QE they are doing and indeed where this investment is going, arguments have been happening behind closed doors.  In simple terms they are spending billions of Euros in government bonds, probably no surprise but these are going ‘unfairly’ into the stronger member states like France and Germany over the newer members in the East.

Moving forward it is UK data which will drive market movement, we have Unemployment, Consumer Spending and Retail Figures due this week.  Consumer Spending happened this morning and showed a fairly standard rate, i.e. unchanged in comparison to last month.  Employment is expected to also remain flat but it will be the new number of people out of employment which will be the driving factor – expect GBP rates to fall.  Retail on Thursday are also expected to show a slight drop in comparison to the previous month when we have the bank holiday and extra shopping.  Retail moving forward will probably improve as a result of the brighter sunnier weather resulting in more people spending on days out.

For a full break down on market movement, forecasts and indeed live prices please get in contact – email HSE@Currencies.co.uk

Britain once again warned against voting for a ‘Brexit’ whilst GBPEUR opens up flat (Joseph Wright)

GBPEUR has been range bound for the last week or so as neither the Bank of England (BoE) or the European Central Bank (ECB) are predicted to to change their current monetary policies.

Last week David Cameron gave a rather pessimistic speech regarding the possibility of the UK voting to leave the Eurozone. He made some bold statements with the most eye catching being that leaving the EU could bring ‘war to the previously peaceful countries of Europe’.

Towards the end of last week it was International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Christine Lagarde’s turn to offer a warning to the UK. She said a UK exit would be “bad to very, very bad” and that she also added that she doesn’t believe that any good can come from a successful leave vote.

Those with a currency requirement involving GBP should be fully aware of the current rhetoric surrounding the UK ‘s EU Referendum and the likely effects the vote could have on currency markets.

Current levels on GBPEUR are higher than many had expected this close to the vote, and this is mostly due to the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls showing a strong lead for the ‘remain’ campaigns. Should this change I think we can expect a decline in Sterling’s value, so anyone with a currency requirement including GBPEUR could consider making that trade sooner as opposed to later in order to take advantage of the current levels. GBPEUR has opened up flat with the pair just beneath 1.27 at the inter bank level.

For those with a GBPEUR currency requirement it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478.

6 weeks to go before the Brexit vote and the impact on Sterling exchange rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have had another difficult week with just under 6 weeks to go before the UK votes to decide whether or not to remain in the European Union.

Recently both manufacturing and industrial production data have come in at their lowest levels in 3 years and this had been caused by the lack of foreign investment coming into the UK over the last few months.

An NIESR GDP estimate also showed that the UK is seeing growth struggling and although this is not the official data it does highlight the problems and the NIESR are usually fairly accurate in their data.

This has caused Sterling to fall against the Euro and although IMF head Christine Lagarde has spoken out in favour the UK remaining in the European Union until the vote takes place Sterling exchange rates vs the Euro are likely to come under huge pressure.

The Quarterly Inflation Report showed big signs of problems ahead for the UK and with inflation data due in the UK on Tuesday and Eurozone inflation the following day on Wednesday we could see big swings on GBPEUR exchange rates during the middle part of the week ahead.

On Thursday Retail Sales data is published and I think again this will highlight the uncertainty in the UK’s economy which could see Sterling falling towards the end of next week vs the Euro.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling Supported after Bank of England Meeting (James Lovick)

The pound has seen a very narrow trading range for GBP EUR as we end the week. Sterling exchange rates have been steady since Mark Carney’s comments after the Bank of England meeting yesterday. His views were clear that Britain would be better off if it remains in the Eurozone. As he carries such a vocal and respected voice his views are likely to strike a chord with British voters. In my view, it is his comments which have helped support the pound at these levels. The markets are also of course awaiting UK inflation numbers next Tuesday which could create some major volatility for the pound The Bank of England is trying to manage inflation but any downturn in the numbers will make things difficult for the Bank of England and it may result in putting back the first interest rate cut. With an already clear slowdown in the economy at the moment a weak inflation figure could mean an interest rate cut is more likely, something that is already being discussed with the Bank of England. This will carry a huge risk for sterling exchange rates amidst all the other referendum uncertainties.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement either buying or selling and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively you can email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk

Mark Carney Enters Heavily into the Brexit Debate

The Bank of England yesterday chose to continue with the existing interest rate with a 9-0 unanimous decision from the Monetary Policy Committee. The decision itself was fairly unsurprising however some commentators including Merrill Lynch were suggesting that there could have been a vote for a rate cut from some members.

Mark Carney after the vote gave a press conference where he delivered a pretty scathing opinion with regards to how the UK could cope with a Leave victory in the referendum. The market received this as a sign that the voting public will back the Stay campaign due to the fear factor of leaving, this led to the GBP/EUR rate rose above 1.27. Carney suggested that the UK could easily enter into recession, have an increase in unemployment and force interest rate-cuts. The Leave campaign was no doubt unimpressed with this as the Bank of England is supposedly impartial, these comments no doubt giving a pretty one sided affair.

Today there is a huge amount of data being released from Spain, Italy and Germany. There is a very strong chance that Sterling may rise into the high 1.27’s against the Euro and may present yet another good buying window.

If you would like to discuss the GBP/EUR rate in further detail please feel free to reach out to me at brf@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rises!

Unexpected news from the Bank of England has actually led to GBPEUR rates rising! If you need to buy Euros this is a great opportunity that is unlikely to last given all the wider concerns in the market and worry over the Referendum. The rates could easily drop between 5 and 10 cents between now and June 23rd the date of the Referendum. If you have a transfer to consider making plans well in advance is really worthwhile since you never quite know the outcome of these things.

If you need to buy or sell Euros then please email me Jonny by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk for an overview of the market. I am an Associate Director of one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokerages and I am very confident I can help you with any transfers you need to consider. Whether it be checking the rate you are getting from your bank or broker is the ‘best’ on offer or wishing to understand more about the Euro rate in the next few weeks a quick email to me could save you money. Any information is completely free of charge and at no obligation.

I hope to hear from you soon!