Category Archives: Euro Strength

Is Sterling set to fall further against the Euro following the Brexit? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchnage rates have once again come under pressure with the release of the UK’s latest Purchasing Manager’s Index.

The data release from yesterday morning showed a fall in economic activity to 47.7 which is the lowest figure since April 2009. Anything blow 50 represents contraction and with the data covering the post-Brexit period then could this be a sign of things to come. Sterling fell by over 1% against the Euro during Friday.

Recent economic data has been relatively strong for the UK including that of UK unemployment data which was the best for over 10 years. However, the economic data including the Brexit period will come later and I think this could show some real concerns for the British economy.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has spoken out a number of times in the run up to Brexit and also after the announcement and has signalled that the central bank will change monetary policy if necessary in order to shore up the economy.

Last month’s absence of an interest rate cut was more than likely due to the change in Prime Minister only a day before the result so when the meeting takes place of 4th August I would not be surprised to see either an interest rate cut or further Quantitative Easing both of which are likely to negatively effect the Pound if they are introduced.

On Wednesday the UK releases GDP data and this could be a pivotal point for Sterling Euro exchange rates going forward as if the data comes out lower than expected I think we could see some problems for the Pound going forward.

One possible piece of good news for Sterling is that the European banking stress tests are due next Friday night 29th July.

This includes 51 of Europe’s largest banks by assets including British banks but the real concern is that of the Italian banking sector.

They currently owe EUR550bn of which almost half of that is due to French banks so if the announcement supports this view then we could see some huge volatility for GBPEUR rates towards the end of next week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

GBP/EUR could sway from 1.20 today, with a downward move most likely (Joseph Wright)

Today will be the first time UK specific economic news will be released showing the effects of the UK’s ‘Brexit’, so later today there’s a chance that the GBP/EUR pair will be trading within a new range away from the 1.20 mark the pair have traded at for most of the week.

It will be PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data that will be released at 9.30am this morning. PMI stands for Purchasing Managers Index and the figures will provide us with an idea of business conditions within the UK for the month of July in terms of output, new orders, employment levels for the sector, sales and company forecasts.

50 is a key benchmark for the figures as anything above demonstrates growth whereas numbers below indicate a contraction. The figures are expected to show a decline so should they beat expectations there could be a spike upward for the Pound, but I think there is more downside potential considering the negative effects the ‘Brexit’ appears to be having, and I’m expecting some negative figures to be released.

GBP/EUR are still just 5 cents from the 10 year average of 1.25 so those looking to sell their Pounds and purchase Euros may wish to consider making that transfer sooner as opposed to later as over time there is a chance the Pound could fall closer to parity, especially if predictions by the likes of HSBC and Lloyds prior to the EU Referendum come to fruition.

If you are planning a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Euro remains stable as Draghi throws in no surprises GBP/EUR clinging to 1.20 and not leaving (Daniel Wright)

Another day with very little to report in terms of movements for the Euro, even with one of the largest data releases of the month for the Euro. Today we had the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference and no major surprises came from either.

The Euro did gain strength as Mario Draghi bought a little confidence to the Euro whilst being fairly positive in how the European recovery was progressing.

This has calmed the markets a little as concerns remain rife about Italian banks and other matters however we may be in for an interesting few weeks ahead, especially next Friday night as we have the results of the latest banking stress tests throughout Europe. What is most interesting about this is that the results are not being released until after trading hours on Friday night.

Releases that are scheduled to come out after hours are usually expected to cause a lot of volatility so something tells me that we may be expecting some bad news for a lot of the banks which may lead to a drop in the value of the Euro once the markets open up again on Sunday evening.

This sort of market is extremely hard to predict and moves rapidly so if you are in the position where you may need to carry out a currency exchange then it is key that you speak with a proactive broker and also get as much information that you can gather. We welcome new enquiries and have won awards for both our market information, customer service and exchange rates. This shows that we are not only proactive, but we can offer you lots of information along with saving you money over your current provider. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to speak with you personally to see how I may be able to assist you.

GBP EUR Volatile on European Meetings Today (James Lovick)

Today is extremely important for both sterling exchange rates and Euro exchange rates as we go return to the political arena with a meeting in Berlin with British Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angel Merkel followed by another meeting tomorrow in France with French President  Francois Hollande.

These meetings are of paramount importance as they will effectively open the dialogue at a very early stage as to how Britain will withdraw from the EU. A positive and upbeat tone from Europe should be seen as good for the pound which in my view is where this should be heading now that the shock of Brexit has passed.

The issues for the pound at present surround Brexit and also the action that will be taken from the Bank of England to restore confidence to the markets. Last week the pound saw an excellent rally after the appointment of Theresa May as Prime Minister but also due to the lack of action from the Bank of England – The markets had been expecting an interest rate cut which did not materialise.

Now the focus looks to the next meeting 4th August which is fast approaching. Considering the comment from Chancellor of The Exchequer Philip Hammond yesterday that he acknowledged a monetary policy “package” would be forthcoming from the Bank of England, it would suggest August looks like the time for action.

This is likely to be sterling negative and already the markets are drifting lower in anticipation. This date in particular carries the opportunity to see some very sizeable market movement like we have seen in recent week so anyone with a currency requirement either buying Euros or selling Euros would be wise to get in touch to discuss how it will impact on your requirement.

If you find this post useful and you have a currency requirement either now or in the future then it is well worth you getting in contact with me (James Lovick) personally. I work for a brokerage that has won numerous awards both for our rates and customer service and I would be quite surprised if I could not better the rates you can achieve with your current choice of provider.

It only takes a moment to get in touch and you may save thousands of Pounds so feel free to email me (James Lovick) on jll@currencies.co.uk with a description of your requirement and a contact number and I will contact you as soon as I can.

Where next for GBP/EUR? (Daniel Charles Johnson)

With Theresa May’s new cabinet in place I think we will see a gradual rally for Sterling. There are however two events which could hold back the Pound. First up, the Bank of England’s (BOE) next interest rate decision on 4th August. There was the high possibility of an interest cut at the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting this month but rates were held. Usually if an economic data release goes a against the general consensus you will see a big swing in currency values. GBP/EUR however only experience slight movement, very briefly moving to 1.21 before settling at around 1.20. Only a cent move from the pre-interest interbank level of 1.19. I think this can be put down to there being a firm chance of cut in August. It is common knowledge therefore I would not expect Sterling to fall considerably when a cut does occur.

The second event which could cause Sterling weakness is the implementation of article 50. Article 50 essentially engages the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, this will almost certainly weaken the Pound. I do not expect this to occur until at the earliest Q1 2017.

If you have a currency requirement it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is key during such a volatile  times, If you have a veteran broker on board he can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to help with your trade I will be happy to help. Let me know the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Selling Euro rates beginning to deteriorate (Joshua Privett)

As markets opened to begin the week the clear winner was the Pound, with buying Euro rates improving by almost a full cent despite little economic data being released to justify these losses for Euro sellers.

The momentum was clearly with the Pound since the beginning of last week, with GBP/EUR gaining close to 4% compared to the absolute lows on Monday morning. The new Prime Minister, a quickly formed government, and official delay in enacting Article 50 until at least 2017 have all contributed to some increased stability for the Pound.

Unfortunately for Euro sellers, but to the benefit of Euro buyers, events in the Eurozone are exaggerating this situation and making the Euro a cheaper prospect. Most will have already seen the headlines that Italian Banks are in the process of negotiating a new bailout given that the true extent of their debt crisis has come to light.

Furthermore, with the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi set to speak on Thursday regarding future financial policy following the announcement of the Brexit vote, we may see more exaggerated falls in Euro value soon.

This will be his first opportunity to address markets in an official capacity since the result of the Referendum itself. Without much chance of positive news for the Eurozone off the back of his remarks, and with the degree of movement expected from such an event, Thursday should be seen as a red flag for anyone considering buying Sterling with their Euros.

Anyone with a selling Euro requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximize your Sterling return. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current selling levels can even be fixed in place for anyone who does not have access to their Euros presently.

Euro buyers can also get in contact. If you have an upcoming requirement and wish to make the most of any positive movements which occur in the meantime, you can also contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to me to discuss how to ensure any advantageous spikes are seized immediately.

GBP/EUR exchange rates rise after interest rate hold (Joshua Privett)

It seems that even the currency markets were confident that interest rates would not be cut in the UK, with GBP/EUR rising heavily as the day progressed, even before it was announced at 12pm that there would be no rate cut in the UK economy.

It wasn’t even close.

There are 9 members of the UK monetary policy committee and a majority is needed to force a vote cut. Only one of the nine members voted to cut rates, causing the Pound to strengthen heavily – gaining 2% in a single day.

The increased confidence in the Pound can be found in the improved confidence in the political ability for the UK to weather the storm it is itself creating.

Rather than having to wait 2 months in limbo before finding out any evidence of how the UK will be moving forward, since Monday when Leadsom dropped out we have a new Prime Minister, a new Government, and a new Secretary for Exiting the European Union – and he is a patient man.

David Davis has already stated that he will not be enacting Article 50 until next year, given the UK economy the ability to prepare for an exit. To prenegotiate and negotiate trade deals outside of the EU.

This confirmation of a ‘buffer’ is exactly what Euro buyers have been waiting for. It seems strange that the Referendum was only 3 weeks ago, but for Euro buyers silver linings now have to be sought after in the current market.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying, or selling, requirement should contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro or Sterling return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and anyone hoping to eliminate risk for an upcoming transfer can contact me to discuss pre-booking your currency for a future transfer, which requires a small deposit to do so.

Will GBPEUR rise or fall this week?

The pound to euro rate is looking very favourable once again. Oh wait it was until about 4.00 pm today! At the best rates today GBPEUR was over 1.20 but currently we are back in the 1.18’s. GBPEUR spiked higher principally on the back of relief the country had a new PM Theresa May. If you need to buy Euros tomorrow could be another tough day as the market braces itself for further uncertainty from the Bank of England. Trying to understand exactly what the Bank of England will do is no easy take, Mark Carney is not helping with some mixed signals.

We also have lots of confusion over just what is happening in the Eurozone since there are still fears over Italian banks and Greece has lots of debt to repay! There are never any easy answers on the currency markets, it usually pays to be well prepared. If you are buying or selling Euros with pounds at the moment then it is well worth making some firm plans in advance as the rate can change so quickly as we have seen this week.

We offer a range of tools to help you limit your exposure to the currency markets including the ability to forward buy currency and the use of a Limit Order to help track the higher deals. The focus at the moment is on the pound but attention could quickly shift to the Eurozone, understanding the market and all of your options in advance is the best way to navigate the uncertainty.

For a free, no obligation discussion of the market and all of your options please contact me Jonathan Watson at jmw@currencies.co.uk

Theresa May’s Appointment could Steady Sterling (Daniel Charles Johnson)

It has now been confirmed that Theresa May will be sworn in as Prime Minister tomorrow. David Cameron has to formally tender his resignation to the Queen and then the new Prime Minister can take the reigns. Following the news of Theresa May’s impending appointment GBP rallied against the Euro moving into the 1.18s. With a Prime Minister in place I think Sterling has the chance at a gradual rally, this may well be hindered however by the high probability  of a rate cut and rumours of quantitative easing (QE). For those that are unaware QE is pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. This does cause the currency in question to weaken as will a rate cut. If the rate cut does not take place at tomorrows’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting then the rate cut could well occur at next month’s meeting.

Personally, if I was a Euro seller I would be very tempted to move under current market conditions, although there is a UK rate cut on the cards it is hardly a secret and thus the market will have factored in this possibility so I would not expect a large drop in Sterling value. Based on this I would not procrastinate for small gains. Euro sellers are currently in one of the best positions to sell in the last three years.

If you have a currency requirement it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is key during such a volatile  times, If you have a seasoned broker on board he can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help. Let me know the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my article.

Andrea Leadsom withdraws from the Leadership race and the impact on Sterling Euro rates (Tom Holian)

After a torrid last fortnight with Sterling Euro exchange rates having dropped by as much as 12% from the high to low during this period the markets experienced a very brief increase when Andrea Leadsom announced her withdrawal from the leadership campaign.

This caused Sterling to rise very briefly against the single currency as it means we may now have a replacement for current Prime minister David Cameron in the form of bookies favourite Teresa May.

The stability and certainty could help to end Sterling’s recent poor run against the Euro. However, later this week the Bank of England announce their latest interest rate decision and we could see a change in monetary policy.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has spoken out a number of times against the Brexit prior to the EU referendum vote and since the announcement he has suggested that the central bank could look at cutting interest rates or even increasing the amount of Quantitative Easing used by as much as £250bn.

The UK economy has wobbled since the Brexit vote and business confidence is at its lowest level for 3 years and clearly foreign investment has decreased during the run up to the vote and also since June 23rd.

You have to ask yourself if you’re a foreign investor in UK business why would you invest in a British company at this time whilst there is so much uncertainty both economically as well as politically?

The is good news for anyone looking to sell Euros with rates now at their best level to buy Sterling since November 2013.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

What will happen to rates to buy Euros owing to the fallout from the Brexit vote (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates are now trading at close to their lowest level to buy Euros with Sterling since November 2013 after the biggest single daily drop since the Euro was created.

Sterling dropped by as much as 10 cents against the single currency on the day when the EU referendum results were announced.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has suggested that the UK could look at cutting interest rates or going down the line of further Quantitative Easing. With the central bank meeting due to take place next week any change in policy could see further Sterling weakness.

Indeed, Sterling has fallen owing to the rumours that a change in policy could take place so if no change happens next Thursday we could see a small recovery in Pound Sterling.

UK economic data has been rather mixed of late as confirmed with yesterday’s Industrial output figures.

Politically we are now getting closer to finding out who may replace current Prime Minister David Cameron who will be leaving his post in October.

The race is now down to two candidates Teresa May or Andrea Leadsom.

Both politically and economically the UK is facing an uncertain future and until we get some clarity of one or both of these issues I expect to see continued volatility between Sterling and the Euro.

If you need to either buy or sell Euros and want to protect yourself against further movements you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for the future. This can be particularly useful if you’re already on a tight budget or buying a property in Europe.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

GBP/EUR is likely to continue it’s decline, and here are the reasons why (Joseph Wright)

Anyone with an eye on financial markets or even the news in general will all too aware of whats going on the UK at the moment, and it doesn’t bode well for those hoping to sell Pounds at a higher rate.

Prior to the UK’s EU Referendum investors were warned that the Pound could potentially fall to parity with the Euro by a number of major analysts, with HSBC, Lloyds and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) all outlining parity as a benchmark for GBP/EUR.

That trading level hasn’t been seen as of yet since the outcome of the vote but with the Pound falling at almost a daily basis I wouldn’t rule it out by the end of the year.

The most recent spooking of the markets has come from the halting of trading in some of the UK’s largest commercial property funds, including it’s largest. So far Standard Life, Aviva and M&G (the largest in the country with holdings of £4.4bn)  have all halted trading after investors rushed to take their funds out, a bad sign for the UK’s longer term growth prospects and therefore, bad for the Pound.

This time last week Mark Carney put an end to the brief fightback from the Pound after the initial drop after the news of the ‘Brexit’ was first announced. He mentioned the possibility of a further interest rate cut down from 0.5% to 0.25% which sent the Pound downwards and on it’s way to a new 31 year low against the dollar.

I think anyone looking to convert Pounds into Euros may wish to consider making that conversion sooner as opposed to later as further talk of an interest cut is likely to drive down the Pound further, particularly if the actual rate cut occurs and that could be as soon as next Thursday when the Monetary Policy Committee is due to make a decision.

Those with an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound may wish to get in contact regarding strategies and how best to time the trade, or trades should you be open to the approach of a staggered entry. Our specialist currency exchange brokerage doesn’t offer financial advice but we do assist our clients with the timing of their trades based on price targets and historical data such as annual and daily highs and lows.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number onjxw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.