Category Archives: Euro Strength

Has Sterling’s rally vs the Euro come to an abrupt end? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates hit close to a 2 month high earlier this week but ended Friday’s trading session moving in a downwards direction.

Positive economic data put paid to Sterling’s recent bout of good fortune when the Eurozone announced that GDP came out better than expected at 0.6% compared to the estimate of 0.4%

The data was also higher than the final quarter of 2015 and the good news carried on with the release of Eurozone unemployment figures coming in at 10.2%, which was the best data since 2011.

Eurozone inflation however was still worrying low but it appears as though the currency markets have overlooked this data set in favour of the positive GDP data.

The Euro is now sitting at its best level to buy US Dollars since May 2015 and this has helped to support the single currency vs the Pound.

Next week sees the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data and Services data on Wednesday and my expectation is that both these releases will be positive for the Euro providing some good opportunities to sell Euros into Sterling.

My reasoning is that with GDP coming out so strong compared to the expectation then these two announcements could see further gains for the single currency against the Pound.

With just less than 2 months to go before the UK votes in the EU referendum this is clearly going to cause further uncertainty for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates and this has already been apparent during the last month.

If you need to buy or sell Euros over the next 2 months and are worried what the future may hold with the EU referendum then you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

This eliminates the uncertainty and protects you from any adverse movements.

My overall prediction for next week is Euro strength vs the Pound.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Buying Euro rates tumble on final day before May (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR rates have been visibly jumpy and tentative over the past few business days as Sterling’s rally against the Euro was halted by poor growth figures for the UK economy released on Wednesday.

Marginal falls yesterday have been matched with trading activity so far today alongside a rise in employment and growth in the Eurozone. Growth in the first quarter actually outpaced the UK, with growth at 0.6% compared to 0.4% here.

The main reason for the recent rise for buying Euro rates between last Friday and Wednesday was the positive effect Barack Obama’s recent visit to the UK was said to have had on the Remain campaigns cause to keep the UK within the EU.

Markets reacted surprisingly positively to the news, even ahead of the release of polling data which showed Obama’s sometimes forceful words had generated a rally of support for the Britain Stronger in Europe motion.

Frankly, the most recent numbers of around 46% to remain, 42% to leave, and the rest undecided, are still well within the margin of error for how the vote in June will result.

It’s no secret that the consensus on the currency markets is to hope for a remain vote, as the financial world rarely enjoys changes to the status-quo. With alternative polls showing the voter turnout for the Leave campaign is expected to be around 75% compared to 65% for remain, come May markets will likely be beginning to move assets out of the UK to avoid any exposure to what is still an incredibly uncertain result.

Similar to February when Boris Johnson joined the leave campaign, the mass-sell offs of the Pound will likely see its value fall against its major competitors.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me before the long weekend on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

Whether your requirements are imminent or over the next few months, these current levels can be fixed in place to avoid your transfer becoming more expensive. Particularly since British based Euro buyers will not have access to the markets on Monday, the gamble to wait over the weekend is a higher risk than normal.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and Euro sellers can also get in touch should they wish. We can discuss how to ride the expected movements in your favour to their completion in the time period you have to complete your transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Could GBPEUR break 1.30 before the end of the week (Dayle Littlejohn)

Tomorrow the Eurozone are set to release their latest Consumer Price Index (inflation) numbers. The consensus is for a fall to -0.1% therefore the Eurozone will enter deflation.

In March President of the ECB Mario Draghi increased the money supply entering the European countries and also cut interest rates in a bid to improve worrying inflation levels.

If we see a fall to negative territory there is a chance GBPEUR exchange rates could break 1.30 for the first time in 3 months. However I believe this spike will be short lived as its only a matter of time until the ‘out’ campaign start to rally votes in regards to the EU referendum.

If you have euros to buy, a €200,000 purchase has become £4,800 cheaper in the last two weeks and I believe this spike is not going to last.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros this year (especially before June 23rd), the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.

 

When is the Best Time to Sell EUR? (Matthew Vassallo)

Any clients holding EUR should be keeping an extremely close eye on market developments, as the single currency has started to lose value over the past few days. This follows an extremely positive run for the EUR, which had gained over 15 cents against GBP at last week’s high since the turn of the year.

The reason we have seen the EUR weaken off against Sterling is likely due to the comments made by President Barack Obama over the weekend, which indicated Britain would be in a far worse position if we left the EU and ‘at the back of the line’ in terms of trade deals with the US. This immediately caused the EUR to weaken, as the comments are likely to sway a portion of voters, perhaps some of those who were still undecided.

This drop was compounded following yesterday’s better than expected UK GDP figures and GBP/EUR rates moved through 1.29, providing some much needed respite for the Pound. However, this spike was not sustainable and the EUR found support moving the pair back towards 1.2850. I still feel the Pound is likely to find like tough going over the coming weeks and I do not expect a move above 1.30 under current market conditions.

If I was holding EUR I would be looking to take advantage of the huge the improvement we’ve seen since the turn of the year and not gamble on what is still a fragile Eurozone economy. The Pound seems to be finding support around the current levels and a move back under 1.25 is now unlikely in my opinion.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency requirement, then please feel free to contact me to discuss the current market conditions and forecasts. We assist clients with not only the transfer of their funds at award winning rates of exchange but we will also help you time your exchange and maximise the market value. I can be reached on 0044 1494 787 478 and just ask one of my team for Matt. Alternatively, you can email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Best time to buy Euros with Pounds in 7 weeks!

If you need to buy Euros with pounds we currently have the best rates since the beginning of March on offer thanks to some uncertainty over Eurozone economic policy and a much stronger pound. After two months of the Leave camp appearing to have swung sentiment, the Remain camp is now firmly in the running with a raft of arguments to support their cause. This all goes to show how unpredictable the markets can be and how sensible it is to make plans in advance as things can change very quickly. It seemed only very recently that the rates were going to drop below 1.20 and now we are looking at a rise to 1.30!

Euro rates up to the Referendum 

Between now and June I think there could be some further big unexpected swings on sterling to euro exchange rates and at the very extreme would predict swings of between 1.20 and 1.35. This is taking into account the very worst and best expectations of sterling performance. Such big movements will have a big impact on financial markets and the amount of currency you receive. Whilst it might be tempting to look on this as a great opportunity and of course it is and could be, you should also look at the downside too. Assuming a Remain vote and hanging on for the rate to go above 1.31 for your European house purchase is great but if it is a Leave vote and rates drop to 1.15 will you be able to afford the house?

Two key orders in such a market are the Stop Loss order which guarantees you won’t get a worse rate if rates start to plummet. So for example you might set a Stop Loss at 1.22 buying Euros currently. A Limit is the other which guarantees you a higher price if rates rise above a certain level. So a popular GBPEUR Limit order to buy Euros is 1.30.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros at a better rate than is currently achievable you really should be plans on how you will achieve this. Understanding the market and all of your options in advance gives you the best possible chance to trade at a better level. If you wish to discuss your situation please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. There is no cost or charge for my services, any introductory information is provided completely free of charge and at no obligation so you have nothing to lose from getting in touch.

Euro rates after the Referendum 

Of course how Euro rates perform post the Referendum will come down to the outcome of the Referendum. Most assessments focus on sterling weakness on a Leave vote which might see GBPEUR slip to 1.20 and below. I wouldn’t rule out a continued slide on the pound with some forecasts predicting sub 1.20 even in the teens. A Remain vote should see the pound rise with GBPEUR above 1.30 with a possible move over the days and weeks to 1.40 not out of the question.

My experience on exchange rates tells me to expect and highlight the unexpected. It might be that the Euro is actually weakened from a Leave vote. The Euro has relied on lots of overseas investment in recent years which might easily be unwound as we have seen in recent years on the back of the Greek crisis. Could the result of a Leave vote trigger a constitutional crisis in the EU which would expose other wounds? The problems with Greece are far from resolved and it might be that a Leave vote is actually very damaging for the Eurozone and the Euro.

Conversely a Remain vote might not be all sunshine and smiles for the GBPEUR rate. The UK economy has been confirmed to be growing at a very slow pace this year because of the uncertainty over the Referendum. Businesses and private clients are refraining from big decisions such as hiring new workers and investing in their business or property until after the Referendum. This has dented economic activity and is putting further pressure on the economy. A Remain vote is also an implicit agreement to carry on with the (amended) EU relationship which may not be in the UK’s best interests. Perhaps the Leave camp are right and the EU is no longer fit for purpose and the UK being entwined will suffer longer term.

As you can see there are lots of ifs, buts and maybes. I can speak from experience looking after both private client and business transfers for the last 8 years that big events such as this move markets. The Scottish Referendum and the last two General Elections all saw big swings in the weeks leading up to the events. This Referendum is much more important and none of the predictions above could be completely ruled out.

For more information on how to protect yourself and plan a currency purchase in this clearly volatile period please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson is Associate Director at one of the UK’s leading foreign exchange brokers and offers a wealth of knowledge on the currency markets having worked as a currency broker for over 8 years – offering his expertise to both individual and corporate clients on a daily basis. Jonathan’s comments have recently featured in The Telegraph and he has also appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum.

 

EUR Rates Drop but is Recent GBP Strength Sustainable? (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR has lost ground against its GBP counterpart over the past few trading days, with GBP/EUR rates rising through 1.28 at today’s high. The EUR has continued to perform well, due as much to the current negativity surrounding the UK economy, as to any real investor confidence in the Eurozone but are we finally seeing the single currency hit its peak, or is the recent dip merely a minor speedbump?

Personally I feel that whilst the Pound will struggle to make any sustainable move through 1.30 under the current market conditions, we also have to take into consideration the many negatives still attached to the Eurozone. For example, Greece only recently had to sell off their largest port to China in order to raise funds to meet there extremely stringent repayment deadlines and whilst the story or Greece’s economic demise seems to have been swept under the carpet for the past six months, the problems have not disappeared and are surely going to raise their head once again in the not too distant future. There are ongoing concerns surrounding the current inflation levels and despite growth forecasts being raised are still relatively weak.

I get the sense that the current levels on GBP/EUR have factored in the possibility of the UK leaving the EU and whilst this scenario is unlikely in my opinion, it is certainly having an effect on investors risk appetite. I would not be gambling on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market place. With rate still sitting almost 15 cents higher than they were six months ago, EUR sellers should take advantage and sit back without the concern of where June’s referendum may take us.

Looking ahead and it is a quiet week for Eurozone data releases, so focus is likely to be on Thursday’s Industrial & Consumer Confidence figures. The key data is likely to be Wednesday’s UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which are expected to come in showing 0.4% growth for the quester. Any deviation from the expected result is likely to cause additional volatility on GBP/EUR exchange rates.

If you have an upcoming EUR or GBP currency requirement and would like to discuss the current market conditions and forecasts ahead of your exchange, or are interested in a comparable quote on the transfer, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Buying Euro rates dip slightly before Friday (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro exchange rates teased the 1.27 mark once more in the run up to the much awaited European Central Bank meeting, however this ended in dissapointment and GBP/EUR is trading in the 1.26’s once more.

The main headlines from the meeting saw the European Central Bank categorically denounce the prospect of negative interest rates to help stimulate their current issues with inflation. With interest rates already at 0%, the denial of negative rates was essentially a declaration there would be no more interest cuts in the future.

This is a statement which currency markets rarely hear and certainly the positive reaction for the Euro was justified.

On Friday, the trend established since December of Euro strength against the Pound will likely begin again in earnest. The release of Eurozone manufacturing and industrial production figures has been a highly anticipated event.

The Eurozone has been a hotbed for investment in recent months. Thier commitment to cheap credit and growth has brought in an investment frenzy, so much so that the entire Eurozone has received more foreign investment in the first three months of this year (€214bn) than the entire year of 2015.

These figures will show just how much this has affected a sector which was underperforming last year. If we are shown a turnaround in such a short space of time, then the Euro has been projected by the likes of Goldman and Bloomberg to gain by 1-2% against most of its currency pairs.

For GBP/EUR, this means rates hitting 1.24-5 once more. A very real possiblity, given that rates were at 1.22 just last week.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk, and I will reply personally to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and even a small difference against your current provider could save you hundreds or thousands depending on the volime you wish to transfer.

In essence, those holding Sterling have had their rally against the Euro, and with the EU Referendum campaign now in full swing, I would be surprised if we are not close to where we were two weeks ago at 1.22 fairly soon. As such Euro sellers can also get in contact, and I can explain the most productive way to buy at any peaks which emerge as we edge closer to the Referendum, at any peaks which emerge in the timeframe you have to complete your transfer.

Euro exchange rates await tomorrow and what the ECB have to say (Daniel Wright)

Tomorrow brings an important day for Euro exchange rates as we have the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference released at 12:45pm and 13:30pm respectively.

It would be a surprise to see any major announcements from the interest rate decision but the key factor for me will be what we hear from head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi in the press conference thereafter.

Draghi will comment on how the European economy is performing and what he plans to do in terms of fiscal policy going forward. Investors and speculators alike will be hanging off his every word so the slightest hint that there may be changes ahead for the Eurozone can lead to a great deal of market volatility for the Euro.

We offer a number of contract types that can help you take advantage of sharp movements in your favour or to avoid the market moving too far against you.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Euros for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

Sterling Euro exchange rates slowly rising? (Tom Holian)

The Brexit issue continues to dominate the headlines and it appears as though we have seen a gradual shift in favour of the Remain camp.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has this afternoon spoken of the risks of a Brexit and the harmful effects that the recent uncertainty has had on Sterling exchange rates.

Over the weekend the International Monetary Fund has also spoken in favour of keeping the UK in the European Union and with just over 2 months to go I think we could see further institutions speak out in favour of staying in the EU.

Tomorrow morning the UK publishes both UK unemployment figures as well as average earnings.

Although unemployment data has been very positive for the UK, average earnings have struggled and this could cause Sterling to wobble against the Euro.

On Thursday the UK announces Retail Sales data and with Easter having come early for the UK I think we could see some Sterling strength vs the Euro as I would expect people to be out in the high street spending their hard earned pennies.

Also on Thursday the European Central Bank meet to discuss interest rates and although I don’t expect any change in policy the press conference could be very interesting and cause Sterling Euro volatility.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchanage rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBPEUR Currently in Recovery Mode, But for How Long?

Sterling sellers have been dealt a good hand this week as the currency has recovered quite substantially since hitting a yearly low earlier this month.

From that low of 1.2320 we’ve seen GBPEUR surge up to a peak of 1.2685 during today’s trading session. Personally I think this weeks market movements are significant because when we look back at recent trading patterns between GBPEUR, the 1.26 level is key as it served as a support for around two months as the pair were locked between 1.26 – 1.30, and once that level was breached it appeared that it would act as a resistance although this weeks trading session would suggest otherwise.

These gains are mostly due to an improvement in risk sentiment as oil has trimmed most of it’s losses from earlier in the week, this coupled with news that the latest Brexit polls are showing a shift in favor of remaining in the EU has been welcomed by the markets.

My personal stance on GBPEUR is bearish as we get closer to the EU Referendum of June the 23rd, and I don’t expect these recent gains to remain intact therefore anyone with a GBPEUR requirement may be wise to consider taking advantage of what could be the last buying opportunity at these levels, before the potential ‘Brexit’ really begins to enter the tabloid headlines.

Thursday is an important day on the financial calendar this week, as the Public Sector Net Borrowing figure for march is due for release. This figure details the new debt held by the UK government, and with the UK having one of the largest financial deficits in the developed world, it’s likely that this figure will be held under high scrutiny.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBP/EUR rates hit 1.26! (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR has produced a further uplifting day for Euro buyers to continue the rally since last week, with rates breaking through a resistance level of 1.26 over the past four trading days.

My article on this website yesterday detailed this expecation, however it did also detail that today was likely to be a final opportunity for Euro buyers. 

Tomorrow economic sentiment data for the Eurozone will be released in the morning which will likely see the Euro start to regain some of the ground lost against Sterling when rates were down at 1.22/3 just last week.

The Euro has benefitted from a huge amount of foreign investent in recent months, with a total of €215bn Euros coming from outside the EU to invest in a market growing from the absolute lows reached last year. The investment from the last 3 months has already exceeded totals from the entire year in 2015 – so essentially a 300% increase.

This sentiment survey is likely to reflect this, with the Euro strengthening off the back of this as a result.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to take advantage of the recent movements in your favour. 

Recent movements have shown that there is certainly a lot of room for rates to move against the favour of Euro buyers, and these current buying levels can even be fixed ahead of time if you do not require your Euros until a later date, so that Euro buyers do not have to miss out on these current opportunities.

 

Doha Oil Meeting Gets Sterling Off to a Bad Start

Overnight Sterling lost half a cent falling towards the lower 1.25’s. The main drop has been caused by the OPEC meeting that was meant to find a solution to the over production of Oil, ended with the members unable to find a solution. The price of a barrel of Oil dropped 6% after Iran refused to limit the production after sending an advisor as opposed to a minister to the meeting in Doha.

This leaves the Oil situation in a dubious position as the price was moving towards the mid $45 a barrel level and is now nearly at $40. The price of oil will continue to struggle to rise if there is a significant over supply. Iran for so long have been prevented from selling their Oil that there profit line is significantly lower than a lot of the established Oil sellers so the low prices still generate huge revenue for them. Whilst the price is low there is always a chance of a jump and expect the price of Oil to eventually start to move upwards.

This week for Sterling

There are multiple data releases for both the Euro and Pound this week, however most significantly Mark Carney will speak tomorrow afternoon. Each time in the past few months Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England has spoken we have seen Sterling instantly fall. Carney has been very vocal in emphasising the dangers of a Brexit victory and I would have thought the speech this week may well help the rate fall below 1.2450.

If you have a requirement to purchase Euro’s I suggest doing it before 3pm on Tuesday. If you would like to find out some more information on my forecast please feel free to email me at brf@currencies.co.uk