Category Archives: Euro Strength

When will the Euro weaken!?

This is a question I am being constantly asked and with good reason. Euro buyers have seen their rate slip from over 1.40 last year to now 1.16, last week it 1.14! When will the Euro weaken again and what is the best way to maximise my transfers for Euros and pounds?

It is now 2 months to the day of the EU Referendum and the pound had already started to slide well before on the uncertainty. So whilst the pound has been suffering the Euro has been benefiting as Inflation one of the key problems for Eurozone policy makers starts to rise. The Euro has also benefited as the worst problems on Greece are put to bed and markets worry much more about the Brexit and its impact on the UK.

Unfortunately life does not look like getting significantly better for Euro buyers with pounds although there are a couple of potential events up ahead that might help. This is the prospect of the €360bn debt issue in Italy failing to be resolved and Greece coming to the forefront of investor concerns. Both of these scenarios cannot be ruled out but appear unlikely. The market is aware of the issues and unless the problems spiral again seem unlikely to cause big Euro weakness. For now there are plans to contain Italian debt and the Greek situation is also apparently being contained.

A further chance for Euro weakness would be the next ECB (European Central Bank) meeting as in their latest meeting minutes we were told they might be ready to extend their QE (Quantitative Easing) program. This is essentially a program to inject money into the financial system and weaken the Euro. The chances are not too high but if you are buying Euros with pound and have no immediate urgency to move, and are essentially sitting back waiting for the right time, this could be the event that will help you.

Amidst these grains of opportunity is a beach of uncertainty for the pound which for now seems likely to keep GBPEUR languishing at these lower levels. Most commentators do not expect the pound to rise significantly at this time and anyone buying or selling the Euro with sterling should be making plans on the future.

For assistance and assistance with any bank to bank currency transfers you are considering please contact me Jonathan using the form below or if you wish to explain a bit more why not send me an email to jmw@currencies.co.uk. I am here to help you with any currency transfers you will need to consider in the future and in my nearly ten years experience handling thousands of clients foreign exchange requirements am confident I can offer something a little extra both in terms of my exchange rates and service.

Will the EUR Continue to Strengthen Against Sterling? (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR has been riding the crest of a wave against Sterling for some time now and even before the now infamous Brexit result, the single currency had made significant gains against it’s GBP counterpart, with GBP/EUR rates dropping from north of 1.40 down towards 1.28. It made further inroads before the markets started to factor in a Remain vote in June’s EU referendum but when this result did come to fruition, we saw aggressive Sterling sell-offs and this caused the Pound to nosedive, hitting a low of 1.1456.

Sterling did finds some support around this level and following some better than expected unemployment data & Retail Sales figures last week, GBP/EUR moved back above 1.16 at this week’s high. Despite all the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy at present, EUR sellers need to be aware that we are unlikely to see one way traffic on the pair. The economic problems that many of the key Eurozone economies faced have not disappeared and with the recent focus on the 360bn debt held by Italian banks and the well documented problems facing Greece and its debt repayment structure, I would personally not be prepared to gamble on another major jump in the Euro value.

EUR sellers currently sit close to a three year high and this a position I would be keen to protect, ahead of what is likely to be a turbulent and unstable time for the currency markets.

If you have an upcoming EUR or other currency requirement and would like to discuss the current market conditions & forecasts ahead of your exchange, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, you can register your contact details through this blog or email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Buying Euro rates expected to recovery on Monday – will this be short-lived? (Joshua Privett)

Friday afternoon once more has seen the floor pulled out from underneath the feet of Euro buyers, as speculative trading sees GBP/EUR tumble by almost a cent in the dying hours of the afternoon.

High street traders, who move the sums large enough to actually change the average buy and sell price on GBP/EUR, have to choose a dominant and stable currency with which to store their profits in for the weekend.

Due to the sheer volatility of the Pound and the obvious downward pressure still prevalent on its value, it is very low on the list of desired currencies during this period of accounting on Friday afternoon. When demand for Sterling tumbles dramatically during this period, so does its buying power, resulting in greater expense for anyone requiring Euros, yet further opportunities for those buying Sterling.

Some small comfort for Euro buyers is that when normal activity returns on Monday demand for the Pound will likely increase due to the sudden cheapness forced upon it on Friday. With little information of note to be released on Monday, most will be expecting the momentum for the Pound to be established throughout the morning.

Following this however, data from the Eurozone will take over the governance of Euro buying rates.

On Tuesday busIness confidence surveys for the financial service and manufacturing industries in the Eurozone, and should be treated as a red flag for anyone with an upcoming Euro requirement.

The Eurozone has attracted a huge proportion of the foreign investment which the UK has lost in this 2016 of uncertainty in the lead up to, and following, the Brexit vote. Investment in the Eurozone is up more than 320% than at the same time last year, so this figures are expected to reflect this continued positivity.

With the confidence in the positive nature of these figures, buying rates for Euros may begin to price in the news as early as Monday afternoon, so anyone with a Euro requirement should be looking at their options by the beginning of the week, which I am happy to discuss with you.

If you have a buying or selling Euro requirement, whether this is in the short or long-term, I recommend contacting me over the weekend whilst markets are closed either on jjp@currencies.co.uk or in the form below to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

A short conversation could save you thousands on your transfer, and with other events this week to navigate, such as German growth data on Wednesday, will help you to plan effectively for any upcoming purchases or sales.

Sterling Supported after Strong UK Retail Sales Data (James Lovick)

The pound continues to remain under pressure against the Euro despite some positive UK releases this week which helped see a small but short lived boost higher for sterling exchange rates. GBP EUR strengthened yesterday following much better that expected retail sales date for the month of July and which gives us some clues as to the economic landscape post Brexit.

Retail sales were up 1.4% on the month of June which was considerably stronger than expected and resulted in the pound gaining a cent against the Euro immediately after. It was a hot month in July so sale were likely to be strong so I wouldn’t read too much into it at this stage.

There is still a real chance that Britain may have a technical recession which could see trouble for the pound in the coming weeks and months although there is a growing consensus that Britain may in fact narrowly avoid a recession. This would be very good news for the pound although we still have some way to go.

There was other positive news earlier in the week with unemployment remaining at 4.9% covering April to June and which highlighted that unemployment did not worsen in the run up to the referendum. In fact the claimant count measure of unemployment actually improved for the month of July (post Brexit).

Data is light for the UK as we end the week but next week sees very important UK Consumer Price Index inflation numbers which could result in high volatility for the pound. Inflation is likely to start ticking higher in the next couple of months as a result of the weaker pound as a result of Brexit. As such there is likely to be considerable market reaction when it does and any high numbers are likely to see the pound move higher.

Client looking to sell Euros may wish to consider taking advantage of the current excellent trading prices which are still hovering around a three year high for EUR GBP.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Where Next for EUR Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR continues to make inroads against GBP, with the pair dropping to 1.1456 at this morning’s low. However, the EUR hasn’t performed as well against other currencies, in particular the USD, since the Brexit vote. We need to remember the negative impact this is likely to have on the Eurozone region, which is losing one of its integral members. It has managed to claw back some of these losses over recent days, in line with another spike against Sterling.

Whilst the current trend will not last forever, it does seem as though the Pound will struggle to make any sustainable impact whilst there is so much market uncertainty surrounding the UK economy. With reports surfacing over the weekend that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will not look to invoke Article 50, triggering our Brexit from the EU, until 2019 this market uncertainty is likely to continue. I would not be surprised if we find there is a ‘glass ceiling’ type barrier, which the Pound could struggle to surpass and for that reason I would be keen to protect any Sterling positions from further losses.

Looking ahead and we are likely to see additional volatility on GBP/EUR rates this week, with a host of key economic data releases. Today we have a host of inflation data for the UK, along with Eurozone Trade Balance figures. On Wednesday we have the latest UK unemployment figures and with the official unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, expect the markets to spike if the reading comes outside of this figure. Finally on Thursday we have UK Retail Sales figures, along with Eurozone inflation data, so expect a busy on the exchange.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively you can register your details through this blog, or email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Should I buy my euros now? (Dayle Littlejohn)

For clients holding onto sterling waiting to buy euros, the golden question many are asking is ‘will exchange rates improve or continue to fall?’ Since the UK public decided to vote out of the EU, investor confidence has dropped and therefore exchange rates have been falling and I predict this trend will continue.

Economic data releases

Tomorrow morning at 9.30am the UK are set to release their latest Consumer Price Index (inflation) numbers and a small decline is expected. This therefore gives indication that pound could lose further value. Furthermore UK Retails Sales figures are set to be released Thursday at 9.30am and again a small decline is expected which should weigh down on the pounds value.

As for the Euro, inflation numbers are released at 10am on Thursday and a small decline for the monthly figures are predicted. Therefore if I buying euros this week moving sooner rather than later may be wise. If you are selling trading in between the UK retail sales figures and Eurozone inflation numbers may be the best strategy.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade GBPEUR / EURGBP at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend filling out the form below or emailing me with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

The rate for buying the Euro with Sterling keeps falling (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have continued to fall this week now hitting their lowest point to buy Euros since August 2013.

The bad news for Sterling exchange rates appears to keep on coming and at the moment there appears to be no respite for the Pound.

With the Bank of England having cut interest rates last Thursday from 0.5% to 0.25% this has caused big losses for Sterling which only minutes before the decision were getting close to hitting 1.20.

The addition of Quantitative Easing by the central bank has also caused Sterling to fall and the Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent has hinted that there may be further interest rate cuts to come later in the year.

UK house prices have stalled since the Brexit with some regions showing falls and as the UK housing market has been so strong for such a long time this has also put pressure on the Pound.

Sterling vs Euro exchange rates have continued to fall this afternoon falling below 1.16 on the mid-market which is great news if you’re in the process of selling a property in Europe and need to sell Euros to buy Sterling in the future.

If you’re due to complete your property sale in Europe in a few weeks and want to take advantage of these current levels then you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

For a quicker response please fill in your details below and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

What are the chances of the pound recovering against the euro? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Since the start of 2016 the pound has plummeted against the euro by 20 cents and a €200,000 purchase is now just over £25,000 more expensive.

Personally I do not believe the pound will recover against the euro and if anything exchange rates could continue to fall. UK economic data for post referendum has shown a decline, the Bank of England have cut interest rates and are injecting further amount of quantitative easing into the economy and many economists are predicting a technical recession within the next 12 months. Furthermore UK Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated she will invoke Article50 early 2017, however if she fails to keep to her word (in my opinion very likely) further uncertainty will surround the pound and therefore I expect further falls.

As for the Eurozone, this week Spain and Portugal have been given additional time to reduce their deficits. The EU council have stated exceptional circumstances but I believe they are trying to keep countries happy and united as they don’t want countries to follow in the footsteps of the United Kingdom.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade GBPEUR / EURGBP at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend filling out the form below or emailing me with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

EUR Benefitting From Sterling’s Demise (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR has made further gains against GBP during Wednesday’s trading, as the Pound continues to slide following a poor run of economic data. Sterling’s woes have been well documented following the UK’s decision to exit the EU but with no clearer picture of when and how we will facilitate this move, the markets continue to react negatively due to the uncertainty this is creating.

It seems as though the current levels on GBP/EUR rates are a direct result of this, as the EUR continues to gain ground against its GBP counterpart whilst losing value against most of the other major currencies. This to be indicates that the current value of the EUR against GBP is a fabricated valuation, due to a complete lack of investor confidence in the Pound. This trend will not last forever and with so much uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone and how its economy will react to losing such an integral member of the EU, along with on-going concerns surrounding the Greek and Italian economies in particular, EUR sellers should be looking to take advantage of some of the best rates they could have achieved over the past three years.

Looking ahead and all clients with a short-term EUR positon will be looking towards Friday’s Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. This is always a key release and any figure outside the expected 0.3% growth is likely to cause additional movement on EUR exchange rates.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements ahead of your transfer, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR Strategy for the rest of 2016

Sterling to Euro exchange rates have had a roller coaster of the last 12 months. In that time we have gone from the best time to buy Euros in 8 years to now the worst time in 3 years. With 28 cents or 24% difference between the high and the low the move has been substantial and is an important piece of information to help you understand the volatility of the currency markets. It was only last year that some analysts at some of the major banks were  predicting the GBPEUR rate might hit 1.50! Well clearly this is not likely at all in the current market and with a suggestion the Bank of England might not raise rates for 70 months sterling weakness is something we should probably getting used to the pound erring on the weaker side. It seems sensible therefore to prepare for further weakness in the coming weeks and months, the Bank of England have threatened further cuts and this could take GBPEUR lower towards 1.13-1.14.

It seems the economic data for the UK will get worse and sterling will weaken which will provide downward pressure on GBPEUR. But what about the Euro, how will this perform? Well the Italian banking issues seems to be contained for now and Greece is in a process of restructuring debt. There are actually signs the economic plans in the Eurozone are working and this has given rise to fresh buoyancy on the Euro. Whilst there is always the outside prospect of the Euro weakening as a result of problems with Eurozone debt issues, this is not a good enough reason to not buy Euros at the moment. I really feel if you have Euros to buy before the end of the year getting it done sooner rather than later is the safest best to avoid further disappointment. If you do have the luxury of being able to wait a while then we might see rates over 1.20 again but this could be a very disappointing wait and in my opinion it is unlikely to be reached in 2016.

Please take note if you like the information we provide you can subscribe to the posts absolutely free of charge, just fill in your email address at the top of the page. Otherwise for more direct information please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to me Jonny.

Further Euro strength could be on the horizon

  • Pound to Euro rate just above 1.17
  • German Industrial output outperformed expectations
  • UK’s NIESR GDP estimates report due minutes away
  • Euro GDP figures and Industrial production on Friday
  • UK’s CPI data next Tuesday

The Bank of England’s interest rate cut last week may have been the first set of measures to stabilise the economy post-Brexit. Whilst we await further economic releases to gauge the impact of Brexit, the Eurozone appears to be resilient to the UK’s vote.

With this in mind, Friday’s GDP figures for the Eurozone could be the first to highlight the impact of Brexit. The ECB have very little room for policy changes given their almost 0% interest rates, although further QE may be on the cards if Draghi is concerned about a post-Brexit economy.

Positive data on Friday could spell trouble for Pound Sterling as the data could be interpreted as further resilience to the Brexit vote.

NIESR GDP estimates due shortly

The report at 3pm will look at estimates of growth for the month of July, given the Bank of England’s decision to cut rates and forecasts for the UK, there is every possibility growth forecasts could be cut from its 0.6% predictions. This report could create further losses for Sterling with Brexit likely to take the blame in the event growth forecasts are cut.

If you need to sell Euros anytime soon, next Tuesday has a handful of economic releases for the UK including the important consumer price index. If you would like further information around this, please email me at rdl@currencies.co.uk

If you are buying Euros, consider doing so by Friday, I am expecting further losses for Sterling come next week and I would not want you to lose out.

UK Manufacturing Data could Cause further falls for Sterling (Daniel Charles Johnson)

The pound has had a torrid time of late, due to the “Brexit” vote. I feel we are yet to see the full extent of the damage caused of yet and I think upcoming data releases will show a negative trend. This morning will see the release of  industrial production, manufacturing production and trade balance data. I would expect to see a contraction across the board which could cause Sterling weakness this morning. I think trade balance figures will improve later down the road as the drop in currency value should increase the UK’s export appeal, but it is too soon to see any significant change at this point.

If you have to buy Euros short to medium term I think it may be wise to take advantage of current levels. GBP/EUR is already threatening to break the 1.17 resistance barrier this morning.

If you have a currency trade it is crucial to be in touch with a seasoned broker. The timing of your trade is a key factor during such unpredictable times, If you have an experienced broker on board he or she can be your eyes and ears in the market to assist in helping you make an informed decision. If you would like me to work on your trade I will be happy to help. If you let me know  the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 3-4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do not hesitate to get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to being of assistance.