Category Archives: Euro Strength

What will the Bank of England do this week with interest rates? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have now hit their lowest level since May 2015 following on from the US jobs report published yesterday afternoon.

The US economy confirmed that only 142,000 new jobs were created compared to the expectation of 205,000 which has caused the Dollar to weaken and the Euro to strengthen to its best level against the Pound since May 2015.

The reason being is that there has been a raised expectation that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates before the end of the year but the report out yesterday could now postpone any rate hike for the US.

This has seen a big sell off for the Dollar and investors ploughing into the Euro creating this recent bout of strength.

With the Bank of England set to meet on Thursday this could also sway any decisions by the members of the Monetary Policy Committee.

The concern about a global slowdown, the recent news from the US and the rate cut made by China a few weeks ago following Black Monday could dissuade any member voting for a rate hike which could see Sterling fall against the Euro towards the end of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian



US Jobs Data causes Massive Strength for the Euro vs Sterling (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have fallen this afternoon following on from the lower than expected jobs data this afternoon from the US.

The expectation was for over 205,000 new jobs but the US economy only added 142,000 new jobs last month according to the report.

The poor figures have seen a sell off for the US Dollar and global investors have moved into the Euro which has seen the single currency gain against both Dollar and Sterling this afternoon.

The data means that an interest rate hike for the US this month now seems unlikely which is the reason for the movement on GBPEUR exchange rates.

Even with Eurozone inflation now measuring below 0% this is clearly worrying for the Eurozone however this data has not seen a negative impact for the Euro as UK GDP has also been downgraded from 2.6% to 2.4% this week.

Next Tuesday evening ECB president Mario Draghi takes centre stage to address the markets and this could see further volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian




Draghi’s speech does little to strengthen Euro (Joshua Privett)

The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, gave a speech in New York yesterday which should have been taken very positively for the Euro. However, trading patterns are working against Euro sellers. 

The main headline was that he stated unequivocally that the Eurozone had now returned to a period of sustained growth. He laid the thanks to this squarely at his own feet with the policy moves he and his team at the ECB introduced in January.

The cornerstone of this was their emergency financial stimulus in the form of Quantitative Easing and interest rate cuts. Both of these are designed to stimulate spending and make saving illogical, this is turn leads to growth.

The announcement that these forms of stimulus were necessary for the Eurozone economy caused the initial spikes for GBP/EUR above 1.30 in January, as confidence in the Euro began to fall into a tailslide. Most were expecting the announcement by Draghi to cause the opposite effect, with greater confidence in the Euro being expressed.

However, yesterday saw one of the flattest days on the markets in recent months, with GBP/EUR only moving 0.3%. 

This is because of the current trading patterns for the Euro which is limiting the impact of any positive Euro data. 

Rates have been oscillating in between 1.34 and 1.39 for the past two months, mainly driven the the rollercoaster in global markets caused by China.  When rates get down to 1.34/5, the temptation for Euro holders to sell is too great. Given that the rates on offer are almost 10 cents better than the dismal lows of July to sell, the pressure on the market to move and not hold out further becomes the driving factor. A few large sell backs cause the Euro to weaken through reduced demand. This trickle then turns into a flood.

With positive data for the Euro struggling to plug the wave of sellers trying to take advantage of the current rates, to sell at the high essentially becomes a matter of being trigger happy.

Anyone with Euros to sell I strongly recommend contacting me for a competitive quote on your transfer. Historically, these current rates are quite average, but certaintly better than many were trading at even in the run-up to the UK election. Call 01494 787 478 and ask the reception for Joshua to discuss a strategy to sell at a further upcoming peak.




Euro set for further strength overnight (Joshua Privett)

Today was an interesting day on the markets as multiple forces seemed to be acting on the Euro. 

GBP/EUR climbed for the first half of the day as it was announced the Eurozone will be stepping up the amount of quantitative easing into the European economy to €2.4 trillion.

Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, previously mentionned that it was no yet decided whether this emergency stimulus should be taken further. This marginal vote of confidence was enough to strengthen the Euro by more tha two cents against Sterling a few weeks ago. This sudden turnaround, however, only weakened the Euro by about a cent.

The reason the change in rates wasn’t like-for-like is because of data to be released overnight for the Chinese economy.

Since ‘Black Monday’ in August, everytime poor news emerges on the Chinese economy,the Euro gains an artificial boost. With China accounting for almost 40% of the world’s economic growth, any indications of a slowdown causes panic on the stock markets. The result is that investors sell-off shares, and repeatedly they have stored their capital in Euros due to its relative cheapness on the markets compared to safe-haven currencies such as Sterling and the USD.

Markets have been obsessed with this data release all week, and all commentators are taking a morbid view of the outcome. Should this data come in as expected, we will likely get a repeat of the short-term bouts of Euro strength we have seen almost twice a month since August.

Anyone with Euros to sell I strongly rcommend contacting me overnight on for a free quote on your transfer and my opinion on how to maximise the Sterling figure you acheive.

Anyone who has been waiting for the best rate to sell their Euros may well be seeing the best time to sell them for the rest of 2015, as rates will likely be creeping up following the data release. Alternatively, call me in the morning from 830am before UK trading opens on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception for Joshua – quote this article to recieve commercial rates of exchange on your transfer.


Eurozone Inflation falls leading to Sterling Gains (Tom Holian)

Eurozone inflation data published this morning showed a fall to negative with the release confirming -0.1% compared to the expectation of 0%.

Out at the same time was Eurozone unemployment which showed a fall to 11% which again is not good news for the Eurozone.

However, prior to both announcements was the final revision of Q2 UK GDP figures and these were revised down.

Therefore, in the short term at least GBPEUR rates have not moved as much as expected.

The next event to watch out for this week comes in the form of US Non-farm payroll data on Friday afternoon which measures new jobs created outside of the agricultural industry in the US.

Any positive growth could prompt the Federal Reserve to look at raising interest rates in the near future and this is likely to see Dollar strength.

Typically this would result in Euro weakness so if you have a requirement to buy Euros it may be worth seeing what happens at the end of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian



Euro set to weaken in the short-term (Joshua Privett)

The Euro has been the most volatile currency on the markets in recent weeks. Firstly, due to the scandal over at Volkswagen, which saw GBP/EUR rates push up to 1.39, we saw Euro weakness. This was then followed by Euro strength, where money was artificially pumped into the Euro as a safe-haven currency after more bad news coming from China came to light. This occurred in similar fashion to Black Monday in August when rates moved down to 1.35/6, this most recent release Chinese economic conditions and stock-market slides has moved the Euro further up in value and now 1.34 is seen in the markets.

Since Friday there has been little data out to change this trend. Hence the more than 3 cent movement against the favour of Euro buyers this week.  Today this changed.

Inflation data for Germany was released for the September period and the results were alarmingly poor. Prices contracted by -0.3% last month alone, and new forecasts now put Germany on the brink of deflation for this year. This caused the Euro to weaken and rates have just moved back above 1.35 as I write this article.

I believe we can expect more of the same tomorrow. The effect of criminal behavior coming to light at Volkswagen on the currency markets has already proved how much German performance accounts for Euro value. As such, the inflation data for the Eurozone tomorrow will likely cause similar Euro weakness to compound the trend established on the markets today.

However, I believe this spike for GBP/EUR will be short-lived. On Thursday, further Chinese data will be released which commentators have been obsessing about in news coverage over the past few days. The tone of the coverage has been morbid, and should this data confirm fears of a continued showdown in China, the Euro will be strengthening from investors seeking a safe-haven currency to purchase. This has happened time and time again over the past two months and I’m confident in predicting a re-occurrence.

As such, tomorrow could present a brief window of opportunity for Euro buyers before GBP/EUR rates fall down to their current resistance levels at 1.34/5 again.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy should contact me by calling 01494 787 478 and asking the reception for Joshua. You’ll be put through to the trading floor and we can discuss a strategy on how to maximize any moves in your favour. Limit orders can be placed where any Euros you require can be bought automatically, even if your desired rate is hit even few a few seconds, which happens regularly during these data releases. Alternatively, email me overnight on for an immediate response.

It’s very rare that such a clear indication on currency market movements are given, I would not waste this opportunity to both limit risk and profit from positive market movements.

Those with Euros to sell, feel free to contact me on to receive a free quote on your transfer. If you can move ahead of tomorrow I would, If not I can still help you should the predicted movement in your favour occur again on Thursday. We do offer a rate-beating service here to guarantee you get the most out of your Euros should you wish to make an exchange.





China strengthens the EURO – EURGBP at multi week high (Steve Eakins)

GBPEUR rates have generally moved in a positive fashion over the last 4 weeks with gains seen more often than not. Saying that however there has been two big events which have driven markets down with the pair loosing all the gains that they have made over the month. These events have been from China; as their growth is confirmed as falling Sterling losses out with over 70% of currency transfers taking place in the in the city of London, plus ‘carry trades’ in Euro being unwound causing a large amount of demand for the single currency.

Well we are about to start another cycle of economic data as we enter October and as a result rates are expected to fall further. This has in fact already been seen as traders price in this expectation.  So moving forward this week there is certainly more risk than there is reward.

For more information please feel free to get in contact – email me directly

What next for GBP/EUR exchange rates? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Its been a roller coaster ride for GBP/EUR over the last 8 weeks. Euro buyers had a sustained period of trading in the 1.40s. However Greece managed to sort their economic woes by renegotiating their bailout terms with the IMF and ECB. Further to this the Chinese stock market plummeted and carry traders moved their positions back into euro. GBP/EUR therefore dropped from the 1.40s into the mid 1.30s.

Last week sterling started to make up some of the losses due to the VW emission scandal. Its been reported that 1 in 7 of the population in Germany are employed from a car manufacturing company. Therefore VW had a detrimental effect on the euro and GBP/EUR started to climb.

However the spike only gave temporary relief for clients buying euros as Mario Draghi on Wednesday spoke publicly about not increasing the amount of quantitative easing. Many speculators were under the impression that Draghi would increase the amount of cash being pumped into the euro as inflation is a continuous worry.

Going forward this week, Wednesday is likely to be the biggest day for movement regarding GBP/EUR exchange rates. The latest release of GDP figures are to be released by the UK and straight after Eurozone inflation and employment rate.

If you are looking to buy or sell euros over the upcoming weeks feel free to email me with your requirement or alternatively call 01494 787 478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn and together we will formulate a strategy in order to maximise your specific trade.

GBP/EUR set for further falls today (Joshua Privett)

The Euro gained significantly against Sterling once more on Friday, with GBP/EUR rates almost hitting 1.34 once more.

A few triggers contributed to this slide which benefited Euro sellers.

Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, restored a lot of confidence back to the single currency on Friday after a poor start to the week thanks to the scandal for mammoth German car manufacturer Volkswagen.

In a speech he stated that further Quantitative Easing for the Eurozone (essentially cash injections) was yet to be decided. Previously he had spoken of emergency financial stimulus in the future as a matter of ‘when’, not ‘if’. This change in tone injected a lot of confidence in the Eurozone economy, and the resulting Euro strength was was GBP/EUR rates fell so sharply in the afternoon.

The second reason for the fall in GBP/EUR was also Sterling weakness. This actually came from news in the US economy.

Janet Yellen, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of America, gave guarantees of an interest rate hike in the US before Christmas.

Since the 2007/8 financial crisis, arguably the main determinant of any major currency’s value has been its timeline to raise interest rates once more. Now that Andy Haldane, one of the members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has come out saying that cuts could even be on the horizon for the UK economy, the USD became a more attractive currency to hold. As such, the mass Sterling sell-off into the USD has caused the Pound to weaken against most currency pairs.

This same trend could be set to continue today. The release of housing and private expenditure data for the US economy in the afternoon, regular strong performers, could cement the views expressed by Yellen should the data come in as expected. Any increase on the certainty of a rate hike in the US will likely continue the current sell-off of Sterling and lower GBP/EUR further.

With few data releases for the UK economy this week available to reverse this current slide, anyone with Euros to buy should be looking to move sooner rather than later. 

Get in touch with me by calling 01494 787 478 and asking the reception for Joshua to receive a free quote on your transfer and tailored advice on your situation. Quote this article to receive commercial rates of exchange on your transfer.

Rates can be pegged at their current levels for anyone who does not need to buy for a few months time to avoid further losses. Conversely, anyone with Euros to sell, email me on to discuss a strategy on how to ride this current move in your favour.



Sterling Euro Rate Prediction for the week (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have hit their lowest level to buy Euros since May this year as additional QE appears less likely for the Eurozone.

ECB president Mario Draghi had suggested there is room for further QE in the monetary policy meeting at the start of the month but with recent events the chances are that QE will only happen if inflation drastically falls.

On Wednesday the Eurozone releases inflation figures for September and this could have a real effect on what happens to Sterling Euro exchange rates for the rest of the week.

Also due out on Wednesday for the Euro is unemployment data and if both come out better than expected this could see the Euro rally against the Pound providing some excellent opportunities to sell Euros into Sterling.

However, on the same day the UK releases UK GDP data and with Sterling having hit 8 year highs during the second quarter I think this could see GDP fall as these exchange rates will surely have had a negative effect on British exports which still form a large part of the British economy.

Therefore, my prediction for the week is for Euro strength vs the Pound so if you need to buy Euros move before Wednesday and if you need to sell Euros perhaps it would be worth waiting until later in the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian



GBP/EUR incredibly volatile heading into the weekend (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR rates have been moving significantly this morning, with the final trend being a spike downwards towards the low-1.35’s as we enter the weekend and trading grinds to a halt.

The downward trend has been established for a sustained period now, with GBP/EUR being as high as 1.44 a few months ago. However, this particular spike may well be the bottom of the trend.

The reason for the spike is due to a return in confidence to the stock-markets following the disastrous effects of that the recent Volkswagen scandal has had on the European stock-market itself. The sell-off of European stocks this week and last were matched by a sell-off of Euros. Now that stocks have stabilized, with money flowing back into the market at the end of the week as investors look for cheap opportunities, the corollary is the opposite effect on the currency markets. The Euro is strengthening once more.

Rates are already moving back up as I type this, it is unlikely that we will know where rates will stabilize until Monday morning.

Those with Euros to sell and have had the ability to hold on over the past few months as rates eventually reached these lows may have just seen the peak and should be looking to move on this.

We have already hit this currency level this week and the rates have cannoned back up, we are already experiencing similar movements.

Those with Euros to buy should contact me over the weekend on to receive tailored advice on your situation on Monday as we receive more information on how high we can expect rates to move and discuss a strategy to avoid further losses.

Those with Euros to sell I strongly recommend that you do the same and I can provide a free quote on your transfer. Quote this article to receive commercial rates of exchange . I guarantee to beat any rates offered elsewhere to make sure you get the highest value for your Euros whilst the markets are favourable.

Major Volatility for GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

It has been extremely hard to make predictions on GBP/EUR this week with the currency pair bobbing up and down like a cork in a bath. Volks Wagen’s share slump due to the emissions scandal could not have been foreseen and saw Sterling jumped to nearly 1.39 against the Euro. 1.40 was almost in sight, only for manufacturing figures to come out of China and push GBP/EUR back to the 1.36s. China is one of the world largest economies, if China catches a cold the rest of the planet follows suit.
We also saw LTOR predictions for the Eurozone released which caused a further drop for Sterling. GBP/EUR dropped to 1.3490 at the day low.  We are seeing Sterling fight back this morning now sitting in the mid 1.36s.

It is vital to stay in touch with your broker during such times of volatility if you wish to maximise your trade. If your buying Euros I would be looking to gauge buoyancy levels on Today’s and Monday’s trading and move on a spike in Sterling’s favour. We could see a buying opportunity with CPI Eurozone figures released on Wednesday and PPI figures ion Friday.

There is little data releases of consequence coming out of the UK next week. The most important release will be Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures coming in on Wednesday. GDP is released by National statistics and is a measure of all goods and services in the UK. It is a major barometer as to the health of the UK economy.
If you are looking to trade keep a close eye on the incoming figure as this is likely to cause a swing in Sterling value.
EURO Euro on the March

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Long Term Refinancing Option (LTOR) prediction came in yesterday and caused a spike for the Euro against Sterling. LTOR is a process by which the ECB provides financing to Eurozone banks. The aim of the LTRO is to maintain a cushion of liquidity for banks holding liquid assets.
The cash buffer previously required was estimated at €73.8bn, the estimate has now dropped to €15.5bn. This is one of the main factors behind the Euros jump in value moving very briefly into the 1.34s.

Euro -The Week Ahead

Wednesday will see the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. CPI is released by Eurostat and is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a shopping basket of goods and services. It is a key indicator as to the level of inflation within an economy.
With the Eurozone’s inflation dangerously close to deflation it could well move GBP/ EUR significantly. Although we have seen Euro strength of late I think the figure could come in worse than expected. I think the rumours circulating that Mario Draghi the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further Quantitative Easing indicates there could be a further drop. This could well create a window of opportunity for Euro buyers.
The other key data release for the week is the Producer Price Index (PPI). PPI is a measure of the change in prices received by domestic producers of commodities in all stages of processing. From the raw material to the finished article. I again think these could come in lower than anticipated and we could see further Euro weakness.
If I was selling Euros I would be looking to move ASAP and take advantage of current trading levels.

I am currently offering a free rate alert service, just drop a line or e-mail with your currency requirements including your time scale and the levels you are hoping to obtain and I will notify you of  any significant movement.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on   or call on  01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.