Category Archives: Euro Strength
Rates improve for Euro sellers, GBP weakness
A run of poor data for the UK has created some excellent conditions to sell Euros for GBP. The rate is currently at a 4 1/2 week high for selling euros versus pound sterling. It is possible rates may even get better of the UK data continues to disappoint.
Tomorrow we have UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which is the first revision of last months data. The expectation is for no change but it is possible that we could see the pound suffer further if it is bad news. The recent GBP Strength has been underpinned by the better GBP news, if this turns out to be incorrect, it is likely the pound will suffer.
Friday we have German business confidence and GDP data which may well be a market mover on the euro. If you have been holding back waiting to see better levels to sell euros for GBP, this may be the opportunity you have been waiting for. The longer term expectation on the exchange pairing remains Euro weakness, GBP strength. This is why many businesses and those selling property in Europe have been forward buying to take advantage of the improvements.
If you are looking to get the best deal on your currency exchange or just learn more about what will affect your rate in the future, please contact me Jonny directly. I work as a specialist foreign exchange broker and can help you move money internationally at a much better rate than via your bank or other sources. To learn more or for a free, no obligation comparison please contact me directly for more information.
I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with the best deal
Euro rates rally against the Pound. Bank of England minutes tomorrow may cause further GBP/EUR volatility
Following a dip in the UK’s inflation rate the pound has fallen against a host of currencies including the Euro dropping rates into the mid 1.17s. With the Bank of England minutes released at 09:30 tomorrow morning tomorrow could also prove a busy day for GBP/EUR. For me I am not expecting to much from the minutes and indeed you may find very little impact on the market. In fact I feel the Bank of England may adopt a relatively neutral stance over the next 6 weeks as Sir Mervyn King hands over the reigns to Mark Carney in July. It is at this point that you may find more radical policies to be implemented by the central bank. Many expect Mr Carney to impose of self from the word go and give a nod to further Quantitative Easing, or even a surprise interest rate hike – of course he does not have the final say and will need to see a majority vote from the 9 members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) but he may begin to influence his peers.
Also at 09:30 tomorrow watch out for Retail Sales figures from the UK (expected to show a strong improvement that could lead to GBP strength as a result). Should you have an interest in Euro exchange rates then also watch out for a speech from Mario Draghi Thursday morning, positive sentiment from Mr Draghi the Euro may continue its strong start to the trading week.
As you can see we have plenty of data released for the rest of the week. To be kept up to date with the impact these data sets may have for your individual requirement then please contact me and I will happily run though my forecasts and run through the various contracts we can offer to help maximise your currency exchange. I am very confident I can help achieve a better rate than your current provider. Please call the office on 01494 787478 or email me (Mike) with a brief overview of your requirement and I will gladly contact you to help with your money exchange. I can be reached at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Currency transfer to consider soon?
Finally rates for clients buying Euros have improved. If you are buying Euros we are back at the best levels since January to be considering an exchange. Buying €200,000 is now some £5963 less costly than it was a couple of months ago.
Unfortunately this is not likely to continue in the coming weeks with added pressures on the pound and euro confidence returning. All too often those buying Euros think just because Greece or Spain is in the headlines that will translate into better rates on the Euro. This is not the case!
Why is the Euro so strong? Last year if you were looking to buy Euros for a property purchase you were probably budgeting on a rate of at least 1.20, more likely 1.25. Since that time confidence has returned to the Eurozone and Euro buyers are faced with rates today of 1.18.
There is confidence in Europe because of the belief that the ECB (European Central Bank) will do whatever it takes to help the countries that are in trouble. By offering to purchase the debts of Greece and Spain the ECB has give the market confidence. This major step last year has given markets confidence to invest in Europe and helps to explain why the Euro is strong.
The pound is still very weak and it may get worse! The UK has always relied on a strong global economy to create growth. From the days of the Empire to today, Great Britain needs people overseas willing to spend money on it’s products and services. The Eurozone being in recession is not good for Britain who relies on European orders to help the Manufacturing Industry.
The main driver on the Euro last year was the prospect of Greece or even Spain leaving. This has not materialised and is highly unlikely too as the ECB are now backing up the weaker nations. Problems in the Eurozone will continue to hit the headlines but I would not expect any moves above 1.20. If you have a requirement to buy euros in the short term I believe you are looking at an excellent opportunity at current levels.
If you are selling euros to buy another currency we could easily the rate improve slightly in the coming weeks depending on how the economic data comes out. All of the bad news is quite clearly in the market for the euro so we could see some profit taking in the short term which would help. If you are considering an exchange an understanding of what is driving your rate is crucial to helping you to achieve the best price. For the best rates and professional service or any information relating to moving money internationally at a good price, please feel free to contact me Jonny directly jmw@currencies.co.uk
A host of GDP data out today. How will the Eurozone fair? (Alistair Ryan)
It’s been a busy morning in the Eurozone so far and there are a lot more data releases set to rock the Euro coming out later on. Early this morning we saw France enter in to a recession with their economy shrinking by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2013, the same figure as the last quarter of 2012. A recession occurs after 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. This was shortly followed by German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. This data release for the Eurozone’s largest economy came out at 0.1% growth for the first quarter. This may have shown growth for the German economy but will still be seen as negative as it was expected that the economy would grow by 0.3%. Though we have seen some slight weakness this doesn’t seem to have had a major effect on EUR rates but there is more to come today.
We will also find out the GDP figures for Italy and Portugal today and at 10:00am we have arguably the biggest announcement of them all, Eurozone GDP figures. It is expected that this will come out at -0.1%, meaning a decline across the whole Eurozone economy. I personally think we may see this announcement come out slightly worse than expected and if so we could see a bout of Euro weakness off the back of this. With all of the data across the Eurozone coming out today and none of it seeming too positive I feel as though -0.1% is only a very small amount for the Eurozone economy to shrink for an economy that is obviously struggling a great deal. If this announcement doesn’t come out as expected, whether it be better or worse, then I would expect to see a lot of movement with regards to EUR rates.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to speak with one of our specialised, professional currency brokers then please contact me direct at atr@currencies.co.uk . We have a number of different contract options available to you that can help safeguard your funds against any adverse market movements.
Strong EU Industrial Production Strengthens the EURO against Sterling (Tom Holian)
GBPEUR exchange rates fell today to the lower end of the range of recent trading following the release of EU Industrial Production data. The figures came in much higher than expectation which saw the Euro strengthen by 0.5% against Sterling and by 0.7% against the USD. Yesterday’s news about Cyprus receiving its recent bailout of €2bn by the European Stability Mechanism meant that confidence has slowed returned in the short term to the Eurozone which is another reason why we have seen Sterling fall against the Euro this week.
Tomorrow sees the release of EU GDP data for both year on year and Quarter 1. We also hear about the figures for the countries involved in the Eurozone so it will be important not only for the entire Eurozone but keep a close eye on Germany, France and Italy as a barometer for the economic area.
We also have the UK’s Quarterly Inflation Report at 930am and you should follow this closely as it will provide hints as to whether further Quantitative Easing may be necessary in the next few months. Personally, I think until Mervyn King is replaced by Mark Carney in July it is unlikely that we will see any further intervention from the Bank of England.
If you have a currency requirement and would like to achieve more competitive exchange rates than your bank or would like to be kept up to date please register for our ‘SPIKE ALERT‘ service by email to Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk Please write ‘SPIKE ALERT’ in the subject of the email.
Breaking News! Euro gains against sterling as threat of EU referendum hammers the pound
As the saying goes if you stick head above the parapet, prepare to be shot! Thank you to the readers getting in touch with me (jmw@currencies.co.uk) highlighting the dip in euro rates, retreating back to the higher 1.17′s…
It appears there is growing discontent among Tories relating to the EU referendum. This political uncertainty has today caused some GBP weakness. Just shows you cannot take anything for granted!
For more information on what drives your rates please contact me jmw@currencies.co.uk
Will GBPEUR hit 1.20 soon?
The rally on GBPEUR has faltered in recent weeks with significant resistance at 1.19. Anyone selling EUR to buy GBP upset they missed out on rates a few weeks ago should really take stock of the current market as it is likely rates will only get worse for sellers. I think it is surely only a matter of weeks or months before we hit 1.20 again…
The ECB may cut rates lower and the pound strengthening in recent weeks having avoided the triple dip, means the forecast on the GBPEUR rate is it will move higher towards the 1.20 level.
I would therefore suggest anyone buying Euros holds to see if things get better, whilst those selling Euros may wish to move sooner. Ultimately for both buyers and sellers there will be spikes to take advantage of and this is where our service comes in. We can highlight movements in and out of your favour as well as highlight future events which may move the market for you.
For more information on news and events that will impact your exchange rate, please feel free to contact me. Even if your transfer is just a one off our specialist service is designed to save you money through a better rate than the banks. For more information on what we can achieve and how it all works please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
I look forward to hearing from you
Sterling Euro exchange rates in May – What can we expect? (Daniel Wright)
With positive growth figures for the U.K and interest rates being cut in Europe the signs are that we are potentially starting to turn a corner for the Pound against the Euro which is great news for those looking to buy property over in France in the near future.
Investors will however be closely monitoring how economic data for the U.K is this month and any hints of the U.K taking one step forward and two steps back will not be looked upon greatly for the Pound so this is one thing we need to be aware of. My personal opinion is that things are indeed on the up for the U.K and although I do not expect major economic growth until at least 2014 I think we should now be able to tread water and avoid the dreaded recession for the foreseeable future unless we do see another major incident within the Eurozone that could dent the U.K too.
With the major economic releases out of the way and the recession avoided the spotlight does not appear to be back on Europe and any comments from members of the European Central Bank regarding future fiscal policy will be taken extremely seriously this month. Just last week following the ECB interest rate cut, at a press conference held by head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi the mere mention of possible negative deposit rates led to the Euro losing ground by almost a cent against Sterling in a matter of minutes, so if this policy is adopted in the future we could see further Euro weakness.
All in all I feel that we are now more likely to see Sterling go back above 1.20 than we are to see it go back below 1.15 however in such a fragile market if you are looking to buy Euros with Sterling in the near future then it is key that you keep a very close eye on the markets as things can change very quickly and even the slightest movement in exchange rates can drastically effect the price of your overseas property.
