Category Archives: Euro Strength

Could we see further gains for the Euro against Sterling this week? (Tom Holian)

Towards the end of the week Sterling has now hit its lowest level to buy Euros as rumours are rife that the UK is gearing up to start the negotiations to trigger Article 50 early next year.

Last week European Council President Donald Tusk claimed that in a meeting with Theresa May she told him that the UK is ready to start the plans to leave the European Union by February. However, the news story didn’t make too many headlines shorty afterwards which signals to me that perhaps he misunderstood her comments.

On Thursday night our very own Foreign Minister Boris Johnson who was a big catalyst in the campaign for the UK to vote for Brexit has also claimed that the UK will begin formal Brexit talks early next year and leave the EU by 2019. However, Number 10 have stated that ‘the decision to trigger Article 50 is hers alone’ as in Theresa May’s.

Clearly the task is extremely difficult and the uncertainty of when the talks will formally begin are likely to weigh heavily on Sterling Euro exchange rates and Friday’s falls for the Pound demonstrated what may happen to GBPEUR exchange rates if the uncertainty continues.

Next week the UK releases second quarter GDP data on Friday which will be closely viewed to see how the British economy performed in the run up to the vote and any signs of a slowdown could see Sterling fall even further against the single currency.

As we come to the end of the month I think we could see Sterling fall even lower against the single currency and go lower than the recent 3 year lows for GBPEUR rates.

If you need to buy Euros in the next few weeks then a solution could be to look at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date. If you had bought a forward contract 3 months ago you could have been as much as 15 cents better off when if you put that into real figures that is EUR15,000 extra for every £100,000 purchased. A huge amount when it comes to buying a property in Europe.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros then feel free to contact me directly. I have worked in the industry for 13 years and as a specialist foreign exchange provider we are able to offer more competitive rates than using your own bank.

Email me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Euro Strength after Strong Manufacturing PMI Data (James Lovick)

 

For anyone selling Euros there is once again an excellent opportunity to convert into pounds. There has been considerable weakness in the price of the pound over these last two weeks as result of underlying Brexit concerns. It has been three months to the day since the British referendum on EU membership and fundamentally very little has changed. Although much of the economic data has been largely upbeat over the last three months since the vote, the Brexit worries still aren’t disappearing and this is keeping the currency markets on tenterhooks.

EU manufacturing numbers released this morning as per the Purchasing Managers Index came in stronger than expected which immediately saw the Euro strengthen. This is a welcome boost for Euro exchange rates although the rally may not have too much further to go.

Today is light for the UK today although next week sees some key economic releases. GDP numbers however are the key ones to watch as this is “hard data” and it’s the one the markets are most interested. The figures effectively tell us how well the British economy has been performing in terms of economic growth. Whilst a slowdown was predicted it doesn’t appear to have materialised. In fact the strong manufacturing data of late should even be a boost for UK GDP. Anything steady or indeed positive should see the pound turn around its recent decline and a good rally may follow.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me James Lovick directly on jll@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Where Next for EUR Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR has continued to make strides against GBP this week, with the pair now trading around 1.16 on the exchange. This improvement for the EUR ended Sterling’s mini recovery and as such those clients holding Sterling may have missed their opportunity. The Pound had put pressure on 1.20 only a week or two ago, only to find huge resistance at this level and subsequently the pair has dropped. With the current rates floating just above 1.16 on the exchange, many clients are questioning whether or not the Pound will recover up to, or above 1.20 over the coming months.

Whilst I would never rule anything in the current market, my personal opinion is and remains that sustainable Sterling strength is unlikely. Whilst rates do not move in a straight line the huge amount of uncertainty created by our Breixt decision, is likely to handicap the Pound for the foreseeable future and as such an aggressive move above 1.20 is unlikely.

With poor inflation data and some bleak minutes from the Bank of England (BoE) following their interest rate decision last week, an interest rate cut this side of 2017 is now far more likely and I believe this is being factored in to the current rates. Due to this overriding factor, alongside an extremely fragile UK economy, I would be looking to protect any Sterling position I had and not gamble on an extremely unpredictable market.

Those clients holding EUR should also be wary about assuming the current spike will continue at the same pace. With key elections in France & Germany next year, the political uncertainty is likely to put pressure on the EUR, which could lose value quickly as a result.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

when will the Euro weaken against the pound?

Many buyers of Euros are upset at the current level and are keenly waiting for rates to recover back to 1.20 or even higher. This prospect is not completely out of the question but I do feel it is more likely buying Euros will become more expensive not cheaper on a balance of probabilities over the course of the next few months. What we are waiting for if buying Euros is some Euro weakness but for now it is sterling weakness which is driving the GBPEUR exchange rate and taking investors attention.

There are two reasons that could see the Euro weaken at the moment. The first being a resurgence of the Euro debt crisis with Greece and co. Were we to suddenly see Greece hit the headlines again the Euro would certainly weaken but the outlook and likelihood of this happening is fairly limited. Last year the Euro was very weak which caused much volatility across many exchange rates, unfortunately for Euro buyers this is unlikely to quickly reverse. The Eurozone came up with a number of method to manage the risk of the Greek debt crisis which are doing very well so far. The second is that economic conditions in the Eurozone could deteriorate to the point where they might need more QE which would weaken the Euro. This is the more likely scenario to weaken the Euro but the expectation is this is more likely to not happen than to happen.

If you have any questions or currency transfers to consider the likelihood is for more GBP weakness, the challenges for the pound and the UK seem to me to outweigh those facing the Eurozone and the Euro. If you wish to learn or discuss more please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

GBP/EUR hits it’s lowest level since August, will the downtrend continue? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling has continued to weaken against the Euro throughout this week, with it’s low point so far coming yesterday as the pair returned to their lowest level since August down at 1.1589.

The reasons behind the weakness are mainly investor dovishness as expectations of further monetary easing from the Bank of England heat up. If economic data releases continue to disappoint there’s a likelihood that an additional interest rate cut could occur and the BoE has alluded to this previously. Those with a Sterling currency exchange requirement should be aware of this this as interest rate cuts usually weaken the currency in question.

Sterling exchange rates had previously been boosted by hopes of what’s known as a ‘Soft Brexit’ but those hopes have been dampened, as it’s now likely that the UK Prime Minister will invoke Article 50 in the early months of next year and this has also weakened Sterling.

This week there has been little fightback by the Pound. The only economic statistic released this week was the Public Sector Net Borrowing figure which came out slightly better than expected, in so much that the deficit didn’t widen by quite as much as many analysts had expected. Despite this markets remained relatively unchanged which indicates a negative bias towards Sterling at the moment.

The key news within financial markets at the moment is that the US FED Reserve has chosen to keep rates on hold. GBP/EUR has barely reacted with the pair down 0.2% at the time of writing and trading at 1.1622.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Public Sector Net Borrowing and US Interest Rate Decision to Impact Sterling Euro Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates could be in for another difficult day ahead as the UK is set to shortly announce Public Sector Net Borrowing figures for August.

Following the Brexit vote and the UK’s decision to leave the European Union I expect the figures to be exceptionally high and this could cause potential losses for Sterling vs the single currency.

Pound Sterling Euro exchange rates hit their lowest level in 4 weeks yesterday and getting close to a 3 year low as confidence in the Pound continues to struggle.

The Bank of England’s Quarterly Bulletin is also announced at 12pm today and this is likely to focus on the economic issues caused by the Brexit vote. Therefore, any negative data released could see Sterling fall against the Euro.

However, arguably the biggest event of today and possibly the month will come from the US when the Federal Reserve releases its latest interest rate decision this evening.

There is a chance that the US may look at raising rates which will be the first time since last December and this caused huge movements for Sterling, Euro and the US Dollar.

The chance of the Fed changing monetary policy this evening is at just 15% but even with such a low figure there is still a chance so if any change does occur I expect to see a lot of volatility caused overnight.

If you want to avoid the uncertainty of tonight’s decision and need to buy or sell Euros then it may be worth organising this fairly soon in order to protect yourself against any potential negative movement.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you. For a live exchange rate call me directly on 01494787478.

 

 

Sterling closes day above 1.16 (Ben Fletcher)

The GBP/EUR dropped to just above 1.15 today and nearly broke into the 1.14’s for the first time in 3 years. Even the initial fallout from the Brexit vote did not take the rate that low. There has been a general consensus confirmed by the Bank of England that UK’s economy has been more resolute than expected, however there is still major uncertainty.

Theresa May has made it very clear that the UK will remove itself completely from the EU but to what extent is still to be decided. There has been no confirmation as to when Article 50 could be triggered which still means we are at least 2 years away from leaving at all times. It seems clear that the UK is trying to get as much in place as possible for post EU life before the divorce begins. There is no secret that the UK are talking to several major nations around the world to discuss their best options.

In my opinion Sterling will struggle to gain any major strength until there is more confirmed facts. Investors will be reluctant to invest heavily into the UK when there are so many unknowns. Alternatively the GBP/EUR rate may be affected by what’s happening in Europe. The recent announcement that Bosnia could begin their attempts to enter the European Union could add flames to an already major anti-immigration under current. Angela Merkel’s party has suffered major losses across the whole of Germany in recent elections and her parties claim to power next year in the General Election is losing vulnerable.

In the short term I think Sterling could struggle, however over the next 6 months I would be very surprised if the strength for the Euro continues. Personally I believe the GBP/EUR rate will be back towards the 1.30 mark by February/March next year as several major elections take place across the EU.

If you have a currency requirement and would like some further updates I could be of assistance. Please fill in the form below or send me an email to brf@currencies.co.uk. Working for a brokerage that’s been established for over 17 years I could monitor the markets for you and help achieve a better rate of exchange.

Will GBPEUR rise above 1.20 again?

The pound against the Euro has fallen by over 15 cents since June. Rates of 1.30 and even 1.20 now seem like distant memory, what does the future hold for Euro and its performance against the pound? Well in my opinion a spike higher towards 1.20 will happen again in the coming weeks and months, I feel confident political pressures in the EU and lacklustre economic performance in the Eurozone will see the Euro come under serious pressure as investors question once again the fundamental values of the single currency bloc.

I feel the pressures on the pound will outweigh the Euro however since the questions facing the UK are bigger, the impact on the UK from the outcome of the questions (when will Article 50 be invoked, what will the UK’s future relationship with the EU look like) are greater. However markets move on sentiment and as we have seen in the last couple of weeks the sentiment for the UK became very positive once again, we saw the pound rising against the Euro. This was based on speculation the UK would not be performing too badly in the new post Brexit scenario. However sentiment since then has changed and it has seen the pound fall as speculation over what Brexit will entail becomes a problem once again.

If you need to buy or sell the Euro with sterling (or any other currency) the Brexit negotiations are going to have a huge impact on the currency markets. Tomorrow we have the US Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision which will more than likely move markets, the unexpected nature of such an event is an example of the kind of scenario which might see the GBPEUR rate rise back towards 1.20.

If you have a transfer to consider making some plans in advance is key to understanding and getting the best rates. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

How could the US interest rate decision impact the euro? (Dayle Littlejohn)

This Wednesday evening (6pm) the Federal Reserve are set to release their latest interest rate decision. The consensus is that rates will be kept on hold at 0.5%.

EURUSD sis the most trading currency pair on the planet and when one currency strengthens it tends to be that the other weakens. The reason for this is that speculators move their assets out of the currency that is weakening and into into the other to make profit.

If the US do keep interest rates on hold there is an argument investment will leave the US  and enter the euro which should mean euro exchange rates will benefit. If I were selling euros this week I would take the gamble and hold off until after Thursday decision.

Thursday at midday the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi, is set to give his latest press conference. The President has the power in his words to strengthen or devalue the euro however he is very unpredictable therefore trading after this data release could be a risk.

If I were selling euros this week I would take the gamble and hold off until after the US decision however trade before Mario Draghi’s speech.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

GBPEUR forecast for the remainder of the year (Dayle Littlejohn)

For euro sellers, the UK’s referendum in regards to EU membership has provided you a window of opportunity. GBPEUR has dropped 14 cents which means if you convert €200,000 now compared to June 23rd you will receive an additional £18,000!

Looking ahead theres an argument to suggest GBPEUR will be fluctuating in the lower teens come Christmas however on the flip side a rise into the 1.20s could also occur. Let me explain.

Many economist’s are predicting that the UK economy will show a contraction in the upcoming months and I have to agree. The Bank of England have already intervened by cutting interest rates and are now injecting cash flow into the economy through quantitative easing.

However the Eurozone has problem of its own. Interest rates are at rock bottom (0%) and the European Central Bank have been injecting €86bn into the economy for over 18 months to improve worrying inflation levels. The problem for the Eurozone is inflation hasn’t really improved. Therefore I wouldn’t be surprised in the upcoming months to see the QE program extended which would therefore devalue the euro.

In addition Greece’s debt crisis is out of the spotlight and could return, the Italian banking system is under severe pressure and the Brexit will also devalue the euro.

My point is I believe both currencies are going to devalue in the upcoming months and therefore exchange rates are going to be up and down like a yo yo. Its important if you do not follow the currency market yourself, you have an expert following the market for you.

If you are buying or selling euros this year, today is the day to get in touch. Many people still believe the only way to transfer large amounts of money is through the bank and this is not the case. The company I work for enables me to give better exchange rates than high street banks which concequently means the individual saves money.

I would recommend emailing me with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will the Pound fall further against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have hit their lowest levels since the start of September yesterday as the Bank of England signalled that we could see a further interest rate cut at the next meeting due to take place in November.

Earlier this week UK inflation showed a fall from the expectation of 0.7% down to 0.6% and this is clearly a concern for the central bank.

We have seen a mixed amount of UK economic data during the last fortnight but with inflation falling in order to combat the fall a central bank will often look at cutting interest rates and this look to be getting priced in which is part of the fall this week for Sterling vs the Euro.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has recently said that the Brexit vote was the ‘toughest day’ in his job.

The BoE has come out well since the Brexit as they clearly steered the economy through a very difficult period but the economy is still under a lot of pressure since the vote to leave the European Union.

One of the big events due out next week will come on Wednesday when the US Federal Reserve are due to meet. The US economy has been performing extremely well during 2016 and there is a chance that interest rates may go up when the Fed meeting takes place.

This is likely to have a big impact on GBPEUR rates as Dollar strength often results in Euro weakness and vice versa.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote. Having worked in the industry for 13 years helping private clients save money on their currency transfers I am sure I can also help you. Feel free to email me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Positive UK Data, But no significant rally against the Euro. (Daniel Johnson)

UK data has been surprisingly positive following the vote to leave the EU. Last month saw particularly impressive retail sales figures and manufacturing data. Manufacturing showed the biggest monthly increase in twenty-five years. Sterling rallied against the Euro as a result, briefly touching 1.19. UK retail figures for August were released yesterday and were very impressive, the market failed to react in it’s previous manner however and the pound only rose slightly and now has declined to the low 1.17s. I think this could be due to rumours circulating regarding the amount of time trade negotiations will take since the Brexit vote. It is estimated that over two thousand skilled negotiators will be required to tie up trade negotiations. Australia one of the most fourth coming countries in regards to negotiations estimate a two and a half year time frame, this does not bode well if other countries are reluctant to agree the terms of trade. I feel Sterling will rally, but it will be slow. Unless Euro Zone issues raise their head, for example €360bn bad debt on Italian banks, the Greece debt repayment and very low growth in the Euro zone in general.

If  you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. Should you find our information useful and you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.