Category Archives: Euro Strength

The Euro rate will probably weaken further

The Euro has been rather weak of late and if the ECB (European Central Bank) look likely to need to launch QE (Quantitative Easing) down the line. The UK and US are currently planning to raise their base interest rates whilst the Eurozone recently cut theirs. I do not feel this trend has finished and expect that the Euro will lose further ground this year.

The Eurozone is still struggling with issues and investors will be weary of holding too much money there, the USD and the GBP will offer much better attractions, particularly if they raise their base rates. For more information on what is likely to happen to the Euro and to discuss strategies on how to capitalise please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

The Scottish referendum is going to be a big event tomorrow, if you have not made any plans for this please get in touch as well to discuss how you can maximise your deal.

EUR Strength Ahead of Scottish Referendum (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a volatile week for the EUR following further uncertainty over the Scottish referendum. A poll earlier this week indicated that the vote was at 51% in favour of Scottish independence, news which shook the markets, sending Sterling crashing against the single currency. The EUR has reached a high of 1.2397 against Sterling this week, although by close of European trading today the Pound has managed to realign itself above 1.25 on the exchange.

Personally I do not expect Scotland to breakaway and with the UK recovery still outpacing that of the Eurozone, we may find the EUR struggles to make any serious inroads against the Pound in the short-term.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Market settles after cagey start to weak for the pound (Mike Vaughan)

Once again the GBP/EUR see saw is continuing with the yes/no vote for Scottish independence dominating the market. With the initial indications earlier in the week suggesting the ‘yes’ vote was creeping ahead it would now appear the ‘no’ vote is starting to take control, leading to sterling strength. What is certain is that this market uncertainty is set to continue in the run up to the vote on Thursday next week.

Looking at other data to be aware of and it is a relatively quiet day today from the pounds point of view and this mornings data from the Euro Zone showed a good improvement in industrial production data which did little to the market showing how much focus is being placed on the Scottish referendum.

Next week is set to be as equally volatile as this week so put yourself in a position to get as much information as you can. To get more insight into the full currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

The euro will probably remain on the weaker side

The Euro is most certainly on the back foot falling to a year low against the USD finally breaking back below the magic 1.30 level. I expect too against the pound the Euro will remain weak although the uncertainty presented to the market by the Scottish Referendum is a clear driver of sterling weakness, presenting what I believe is an excellent opportunity to sell euros for GBP.

The market can quickly turn and it is impossible to say exactly what will happen in the future. However I fell it reasonable to suggest the Euro will remain at an elevated level against sterling (the best levels since June) for the duration of the run up to the vote. It would seem likely to expect that after the vote (and assuming a ‘No’ vote as is still expected to be the main outcome) the pound will rise against the euro and focus will shift back to possible QE in the Eurozone.

In short if you are selling Euros for GBP moving sooner may be wise, if buying euros and feeling brace you may wish to wait until after the vote. We offer a specialist proactive service to guide clients through their currency exchanges, please feel free to contact me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information.

EUR Strengthens Against GBP Following Uncertainty Over Scottish Referendum (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR has strengthened significantly against GBP during the early part of the trading week, following a poll which indicated the vote for Scottish independence had gained further support. In fact figures indicated 51% of the votes are now in favour of a breakaway, news which immediately shook the markets.

Sterling had been performing well against the single currency but following the weekends developments GBP/EUR rates have dipped to a 10 month low, providing EUR sellers with some much needed respite. The single currency is benefiting from uncertainty in the UK economy, not due to any particular confidence in the Eurozone and because of this current levels may not last. Looking ahead and we have the latest ECB monthly report on Thursday, followed by employment data on Friday, both of which are likely to affect EUR exchange ratess

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Thursday’s ECB monthly report the main focus for the Euro this week (Mike Vaughan)

Following the weekends YouGov poll suggesting the Scottish independence vote has shifted in favour of the yes votes, another poll this morning has got the split at an even 50/50. This has lent some support to the pound and pushed rates back above the 1.25 mark.

The pound has also found some support against the single currency following this morning UK industrial and manufacturing figures which came out better than forecast.

Looking at the Euro this week and the main focus will be Thursday’s ECB monthly report. This report will give a detailed analysis of the current economic situation in the Euro Zone and the risks to price stability, it may also give clues as to what future monetary policy the ECB may have in store, and with interest rates at 0.05% their focus may shift towards other policies to stifle the deflationary pressures they are currently experiencing.

Should you have an upcoming Euro money exchange to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk and I will gladly be of assistance.

 

 

GBPEUR – ECB change forecasts on future values

EURO’s value has been under server pressure this week following the change in policy from the central bank yesterday.  Mario the head of the bank was rather negative about the euros situation and the growing risk of deflation hence introduced some changes. He lowered the base rate, increased the cost of banks to not lend to each other and importantly hinted that they were going to buy more bad debt up to the value of €80 billion.   There is a growing risk I think that levels will continue to fall for the Europeans, no one seems to be comfortable in holding the single currency and I expect this sell off to continue.

 

EURUSD levels are back under the 1.30 level and continuing to fall and against the Pound it is still close to the most expensive time in 18 months.  Against the Pound I think there is an opportunity if you need to move or can move soon, this coming from the uncertainty from the Scottish vote. Thereafter however, on the basis that the UK stays the remain, I expect EURGBP traders to get increasingly expensive.  This will probably be the trend as the UK is projected to raise interest rates next year and until the concerns for deflation in the Eurozone evaporate which could be months.

 

If you need assistance or want more information on how to potentially look at the market feel free to get in contact with myself via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

 

Look forward to hearing from you and have a good weekend.

 

Steve

EUR Weakness Following ECB Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

There were heavy losses for the EUR yesterday following the European Central Bank’s decision to cut their base interest rate to 0.05%. The news immediately weakened the single currency with GBP/EUR rates moving back above 1.26 on the exchange, eliminating the gains it had made earlier this week. There has been a slight realignment this morning following the release of the latest Eurozone GDP figures which confirmed the Eurozone had grown by 0.7% in the last quarter.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Will the euro weaken?

With no clear improvement in the economic conditions of the Eurozone despite a raft of measures designed to stave off deflation, we could now be looking at some further Euro weakness this week as investors lose faith in the current approach by the European Central Bank. Mario Draghi has kept significant credibility in his work as President of the ECB but investors will need to start seeing some serious improvements before they really feel enough is being done to stem major problems in the future.

Let us not write off the ECB and the Euro too swiftly however. The Euro is second only to the US dollar in terms of its international status as a safe haven, many companies and countries outside the Eurozone issue and purchase debt in Euros and businesses globally will use the Euro as an anchor to add another platform of stability alongside the ‘strength’ of the US Dollar.

Fears some years ago of the Euro collapsing seem like a distant memory and such a scenario is now highly unlikely. The prospect of major Euro weakness in the future if the current problems are not resolved is however something to be concerned about. Prices could start falling and this would have a major effect on the lacklustre growth seen across the Eurozone. Extensive legislation to promote green energy and meet targets has left many Eurozone business uncompetitive against their global markets and this is preventing booms in Industry and commerce.

This Thursday is the latest meeting between the ECB and he will give a Press Conference afterwards to provide insight and commentary into just how he and the council views the recent falls in Inflation. Friday at 10.00 am we have the latest Eurozone GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data which will be very useful in determining whether those comments or actions were justified…

The Euro has lost over 10 cents against sterling and close to 9 cents against the USD this year. If you need to make a transfer soon being aware of all of your options and the forecast could save you money. For more information and practical solutions from currency specialists please email me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Euro gains against the pound but at a one year low against the dollar (Mike Vaughan)

The pound took a hit yesterday and has continued this trend this morning and appear to have come about following  after a poll by YouGov indicated rising support for the pro-Scottish independence “Yes” campaign.

The poll indicated the lead held by the “No” campaign to reject independence had narrowed to six points from 22 points since the beginning of August. As my colleague Colm mentioned below, the uncertainty this has created for investors has caused the sell off for the pound creating a 1 cent loss against the Euro and US dollar, this may well be a short term reaction, and for me has created some good sell prices for the Euro.

This morning Euro Zone retails sales were worse than forecast, however this has done little to halt the Euro against sterling but has pushed EUR/USD to a one year low.

Looking at Thursday and this is set to be the busiest day of the week with the Bank of England and European Central Bank releasing their interest rate decisions at 12:00 and 12:45 respectively. For me both central banks will keep the base rate on hold but the key area to focus on will be Mario Draghi’s press conference at 13:30. With inflation figures having fallen to their lowest in five years, this is putting more pressure on the Euro Zone to act against deflationary pressures and it is this pressure that could result in the Euro weakening tomorrow afternoon.

Should you have a bank to bank money transfer to arrange then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk for more information.

 

Euro Claws Back Ground But This Week Sees The Next ECB Rate Decision So Expect GBP EUR Volatility (Colm Gilhooly)

The Euro has made steady ground today versus the pound after sterling came under pressure from a narrowing of the Scottish referendum polls.  However you only have to look at EUR USD rates and EUR AUD rates to see the single currency is still in trouble.  Indeed sterling is still looking reasonably good against the Euro despite the tumble because we have the next ECB decision on Thursday and there is a growing chance the ECB may have to implement some of the “unusual measures” they have been hinting at recently in an effort to combat stubbornly low inflation.

If this is the case then we could see the Euro drop sharply on Thursday, however do not rule out the chance that Draghi’s soothing words and another “wait and see” stance help calm fears down and the Euro get a temporary reprieve from the recent pressure.  If this is the case, I am sure it won’t be long before it comes under fire again so Euro sellers may want to move quickly.

Do you need to transfer money to France or Spain?  Are you selling a property on the continent and want to get the best exchange rate for your Euro?  We specialise in getting clients better exchange rates than the bank and other brokers, so feel free to email me, Colm, at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be more than happy to explain how our services work and see which options suit you best.

 

GBPEUR rates wobble

GBPEUR rates have started to wobble this week as we have entered the new economic cycle for September.  This week is scheduled to be a very volatile week and we have already seen this this morning with the value of the Pound fell by over 0.5 cent in the space of 15 minutes. This was seen following a recent poll on the voting scheduled to take place in over 2 weeks’ time in Scotland. This showed that the vote was a lot closer than many had previous thought. Moving forward we have a host of economic data due tomorrow morning and then the European Interest rate decision on Thursday. The Europeans are in trouble at the moment as inflation has fallen to a 5 year low, the pressure has been building for the bank to introduce new policies which we saw explode into the papers last week when the French government changed.

So forecasts – well today I expect the euro to continue to gain. Tomorrow to be a volatile morning and a quite afternoon. On Thursday to be GBPEUR positive. So buyers hold till Thursday, and sellers trade today potentially.

For more information or to talk through this in more detail please feel free to get in contact on hse@currencies.co.uk

Look forward to hearing from you.