Category Archives: Euro Strength

When should I sell my Euros?

2015 has been a very rocky year for anyone selling Euros to buy sterling, dollars or any other currency. I have had many clients very upset at the direction Euro exchange rates have taken and it would appear that trend is not over yet. This post shall examine the fundamental reason why if you are selling Euros moving sooner and selling on the dips really is the best strategy moving forward.

ECONOMIC CYCLE

Most currencies follow the economic cycle of the economy they respresent. In the case of the Euro and the Eurozone we have recently had some growth but news last week indicates the ECB (European Central Bank) might look at more QE in the future. Quantitative Easing is essentially a currency weakener. By printing money a central bank undermines confidence in the currency and increases the money supply. Remember when GBPEUR was almost 1 for 1? Well that was when the UK embarked on a dramatic round of QE and the currency weakened by many cents. This analysis helps explain why the Euro has weakened so much in 2015.

The UK and US have done their QE, the Eurozone is only just realising it needs to do this to kickstart the economy. News last week that the ECB will consider more if they have to has done little to improve confidence in the single currency. Throw in Greece and you can start to see why investors have done such an about turn on the Euro. The UK and US are gently leaning to tightening monetary policy, the Eurozone is still in the mire working out exactly bad it is going to be.

This week there is some very important economic news for the Eurozone plus the US and UK too. Exchange rates change every second and we can assist with forecasts and information to help you get the most from the market plus ensure you get a bank and other broker exchange rate beating deal. Please email me jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information.

 

 

 

How much time does Greece have left in the Euro?

Time is a funny thing. It can work in your favour and it can work against you. The American Founding Father William Penn said ‘Time is what we want most, but use the worst’.  For Greece their time looks to be slowly coming to an end. If you are buying and selling Euros how can you use your time the best?

Greece Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis has stated Greece cannot afford its 5th June €1.6bn payment. Should we believe this? Well it is becoming clear the Greek ministers are becoming very good at playing the media. Varoufakis the Finance Minister has become very good at this to the point of being overlooked. It is perhaps becoming a case of the boy who cried wolf for the Greek government.

It would appear that Greece will have to massively renegotiate its position within the Euro at some point but I do not think this will be happening for a few more months. More payments are due and I expect the Euro will rise and fall to the headlines,  weakening before deadlines and rising once met.

Getting the best deal in such uncertainty is tricky but not impossible. Utilising options like a ‘Limit’ order will guarantee your rate if it is hit whilst a forward contract means you can secure all the currency you need even though you may not have all the funds. For clients selling a property in the Eurozone you can fix the price in advance removing the risk of rates moving further away from you.

The gamble in such a market is to do nothing and just hope everything will go your way. To speak to a specialist about all of your options please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling Stays Strong (Daniel Johnson)

High retail sales figures yesterday pushed us through the elusive 1.40 mark yesterday and Sterling seems to be hanging on. GBP/EUR is still looking good for Euro buyers currently sitting very close to the 1.40 mark. It may be wise to keep an eye on the head of the Bank of England,Mark Carney’s speech at 14.30pm as he could well quell any Sterling advances through jawboning.

He may well talk down the UK’s economic success in an attempt to weaken Sterling to boost our attractiveness as an exporter. If you need to but Euros short term it may prove prudent ot move before this announcement.

 

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

 

Further Losses for the EUR (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR has suffered further losses during Thursday’s trading, with the single currency taking another hit against the Pound. GBP/EUR rates have moved above 1.40, even creeping towards 1.41 at today’s high. With the pounds recent momentum continuing, we are once again seeing some of the best levels of the past 8 years for those clients looking to purchase EUR.

The single currency has been under pressure ever since the UK general election results were confirmed and it has struggled to regain its position since. Despite a slight improvement in Eurozone data, the on-going concern surrounding Greece has left a black cloud hanging over the Eurozone. The EUR will struggle to make any sustained inroads whilst the situation continues  and I do feel any move back below 1,40 should be taken advantage of by EUR sellers.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Pound to hit 1.40? ( Andrew Bromley )

The GBP EUR rates have been as varied as the UK weather over the last two trading days.

Yesterdays ‘Deflation’ figures were well documented, however haven’t had a long term impact on rates. Prior to the deflation figures rates spiked up to 1.3770, falling back to the early 1.38s.

Today the GBP strength can be linked to the build up to the release of Bank of England Interest Rates Decision minutes. The previous meeting gave the Pound a boost, as two of the 9 members that vote indicated that they were close to voting for a rate hike. A hike would be good news for the Pound, so it wouldn’t surprise me if rates pushed up to the 1.40s this afternoon…

If you have an exchange requirement, feel free to drop me a line on 01494 787 478. There are various options available to you to book your currency, even if you don’t have the full amount of Sterling available.

Should you prefer, feel free to drop me an email with your requirement to AJB@currencies.co.uk

Andrew Bromley

The Euro Strikes Back (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates had a difficult end to the week with rates falling into the 1.37 territory after briefly tipping past 1.40 on Tuesday’s trading session.

With the UK general election now becoming a distant memory the markets turn towards data announcements and next week there are quite a few which are likely to have an impact on Sterling Euro exchange rates.

Tuesday is perhaps the biggest potential mover for the Pound vs Euro with the release of both UK and Eurozone inflation data.

The expectations are for the UK to reveal falling inflation whilst in the continent the expectation is for inflation to start increasing again.

Indeed, if Eurozone inflation shows a rise this is likely to give the Euro strength as it could be argued that the recent addition of QE has started to work.

Inflation is also a key indicator as to how an economy is performing and will have an impact on economic growth.

Therefore, if you have a requirement to sell Euros into Sterling it may be worth taking advantage of exchange rates on Tuesday afternoon.

Also next week is the release of the Bank of England minutes and I think we could see some more support for an interest rate hike for a couple of members.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney recently suggested that interest rates can go up but not until 2016. However, the MPC is made up of 9 voters so Wednesday could see Sterling gaining against the Euro if there is an increased appetite for a UK rate hike.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compered to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

GBP/ EUR exchange rate finished the week on 1.38. (Dayle Littlejohn)

It has been a mixed week for GBP/ EUR exchange rates with highs of 1.4021 and lows reaching 1.3812. Sterling gained momentum at the beggining of the week off the back of news that the conservative party formed a majority governement.  The rates then fell when the Governor of the Bank of England  unveiled his quarterly inflation report. Inflation for the second month was at 0% well below the banks 2% and very close to deflation. Mark Carney and the BoE then went on to cut the 2015 growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.5%.

For clients who were looking to purchase €200,000 this week they could have made it £2,000 cheaper by trading at the high compared to the low. If you are looking to trade sterling to euros in the upcoming weeks feel free to email me for  a forecast drl@currencies.co.uk or alternatively call into the office 01494 787 478 and quote Dayle Littlejohn.

Carney’s Comments do not bode well for Sterling (Daniel Johnson)

Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England indicated a rate hike might be further down the line in the UK. He stated that a rate hike too soon could curb economic growth. It has been predicted there could be a rate hike in early 2016 but if this is pushed back further we could see Sterling drop in value.

There is little data released today in the Eurozone and in the UK, so I would not expect any massive swings. Looking forward key data releases next week will be inflation figures, retail data and perhaps most interestingly the MPC minutes when we may get more of an insight as to when interest rates may rise.

Personally I think if you are a Euro buyer it is a very favorable time to move. We are very close to the 8yr high we saw a few moths back.Buying in the 1.38s is not to be sniffed at.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

 

 

Exchange Rate Forecast – Why has the Pound dropped? ( Andrew Bromley )

The Bank of England took a slightly less optimistic stance than expected in their Quarterly Inflation Report yesterday. Market murmurings had predicted an indication to an interest rate hike (a positive move for the Pound), however the main release was GBP negative. Governor Mark Carney revised down the growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.5%, dropping GBP-EUR levels from essentially 1.40 to 1.38 in a matter of minutes. This once again highlights the fragility of the UKs growth, so don’t ever bank on the Pound constantly romping up against another currency!

I personally feel that a range of 1.37 – 1.3990 will be sustained and impact primarily now by events in Greece. Regular readers will probably be fed up by us writing about Greece, however their potential impact cannot be overlooked. They are literally running out of money, and will struggle to pay their state pensions and other commitments. If you have money in Greece I would seriously consider moving funds out. You can get your funds out (potentially avoiding any capital controls, limiting future accessibility of funds) without actually exchanging the currency by using UK based Euro accounts. This is something that we can assist you with, meaning that when favourable rates appear you don’t miss out!

Feel free to get in contact, be it buying or selling Euros. Either drop me an email to AJB@currencies.co.uk or call the trading line directly (please quote this blog) 01494 787 478.

Andrew Bromley

Another Volatile day for EUR Exchange Rates! (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been another volatile day for EUR exchange rates, continuing the recent trend in the market. We have seen increased volatility against most of the major currencies, in particular GBP and this shows no signs of relenting anytime soon. GBP/EUR rates have spiked aggressively both ways this week, leaving many investors scratching their heads asking what’s next?

The reason we have seen such aggressive moves is down to a number of factors but in particular the reaction to last week UK general election and the on-going concerns over Greece’s stuttering economy. We have also had quite a mixed bag of economic data releases today, which has thrown the markets into a bit of chaos. UK unemployment figures showed an improvement, as did Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. However, BoE governor Mark Carney’s subsequent address and the Banks Quarterly Inflation report was not overly positive and knocked Sterling, which has lost value against the EUR this afternoon.

Personally I feel that we are now seeing a realignment for the EUR, following an overcorrection for Sterling following the election results and I do feel the Pound will struggle make a sustained move through 1.40 under the current conditions. All eyes will now switch back to Greece and whether they can pull themselves out of their current mire, will have a huge impact on how EUR rates develop over the coming weeks & months.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates against your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

What next for Greece and how will this affect the Euro?

Greece is running out of cash and fast! Billions are due next month and the outlook is not very favourable in my opinion, surely something is going to give soon? Either the Germans will crack and provide lots of extra money (by the way Greece’s debt totals over 300 bn euros!) or the Greeks will perhaps have to leave or default. Quite frankly it is all a bit of a mess and difficult to predict the exact outcome. One thing that does seem certain is that we will see lots more volatility on the Euro rate!

If you have a requirement to buy or sell euros the outcome and developments on the Greek situation will be key to determining just what we can expect from the market in the coming weeks. I expect the market will be pricing in a high expectation the situation will not be resolved but the Eurozone have a long history of solving the problems as it gets down the wire. The big questions is to what extent you can afford to take the risk of it moving against you.

If you need to buy or sell Euros at present it really is sensible to have some loose plans or a strategy to deal with market fluctuations. Just sitting there hoping and waiting for some improvements is not always the best strategy! For more information on your situation and what to expect plus what you can actually do to limit your exposure please contact me Jonny personally on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Currency Exchange Forecast – Andrew Bromley

An incredible days trading followed an unlikely election result. Euro sellers would have been rubbing their hands yesterday in the expectation of rates crashing towards the 1.20 levels. However the exit polls at 10:00 pm last night supported the Pound in to the 1.38 territory, surprising the markets no end!

If you have an exchange requirement over the next few weeks, feel free to get in touch. As Cameron looks to build his conservative only government, there will be no doubt some shocks, especially when he is quizzed over the referendum date.

Either get in touch via email AJB@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 from 08:30 Monday morning!

Have a great weekend…

Andrew Bromley