GBP/EUR – We have recently seen GBP/EUR rise to the 1.12s, however I believe this is more due to Euro weakness than Sterling strength. The ongoing trade war between the US and Turkey has the potential to escalate. With the US targeting steel with it’s tariffs and Turkey being a significant exporter it is hitting the Turkish economy hard. There is also a refusal to change monetary policy from Turkey which has the potential to cause further damage.
If the IMF are forced into a position where they need to provide Turkey financial assistance this will impact the Euro and investors are watching the situation with a keen eye. If it were not for the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit I would of expected a more significant gain for Sterling.
There have been unconfirmed reports that Brussels are willing to allow the UK access to the customs union and still have control of it’s borders. If this possibility becomes substantiated this will be very good news for the Pound and we could expect a Sterling rally.
At present however a “no deal” scenario is still a possibility and I expect the pound to be anchored at low levels until we have firm news and clarity on a Brexit deal.
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