Tag Archives: best exchange rates
A host of GDP data out today. How will the Eurozone fair? (Alistair Ryan)
It’s been a busy morning in the Eurozone so far and there are a lot more data releases set to rock the Euro coming out later on. Early this morning we saw France enter in to a recession with their economy shrinking by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2013, the same figure as the last quarter of 2012. A recession occurs after 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. This was shortly followed by German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. This data release for the Eurozone’s largest economy came out at 0.1% growth for the first quarter. This may have shown growth for the German economy but will still be seen as negative as it was expected that the economy would grow by 0.3%. Though we have seen some slight weakness this doesn’t seem to have had a major effect on EUR rates but there is more to come today.
We will also find out the GDP figures for Italy and Portugal today and at 10:00am we have arguably the biggest announcement of them all, Eurozone GDP figures. It is expected that this will come out at -0.1%, meaning a decline across the whole Eurozone economy. I personally think we may see this announcement come out slightly worse than expected and if so we could see a bout of Euro weakness off the back of this. With all of the data across the Eurozone coming out today and none of it seeming too positive I feel as though -0.1% is only a very small amount for the Eurozone economy to shrink for an economy that is obviously struggling a great deal. If this announcement doesn’t come out as expected, whether it be better or worse, then I would expect to see a lot of movement with regards to EUR rates.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to speak with one of our specialised, professional currency brokers then please contact me direct at atr@currencies.co.uk . We have a number of different contract options available to you that can help safeguard your funds against any adverse market movements.
The IMF predict growth for the UK and eurozone but how much? (Alistair Ryan)
We have seen over a 1 cent movement with regards to GBP/EUR rates today with a high of 1.1732 and a low of 1.1624. It seems as though volatility in the market is still rife with a cloud of uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone and everybody still guessing whether the UK will avoid a Triple Dip Recession in the build up to UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures next week.
Today The International Monetary Fund (IMF) took their twice yearly look at global economies. They have announced that they think the UK economy will grow by 0.7% this year, down from 1% predicted just a month ago. Whilst there is still growth expected and with the IMF believing that the UK is “progressing slowly” I still think Sterling needs some really positive data in order to push these rates back up towards the 1.20′s we were used to last year. This data could come next Thursday when UK GDP figures are announced, if these come out positive then it will mean that the UK has avoided a Triple Dip Recession and that could be the boost that the pound needs. I would still be very wary of this announcement though as if this does go the other way then I would expect GBP/EUR rates to fall instantly.
In the IMF’s announcement they expect the Eurozone to grow by 0.3% this year, a fairly large drop from the previously stated 1.2%. With so much uncertainty in the Eurozone at present I can’t see the Euro stabilising any time soon, there is too much going on with the likes of Cyprus, Spain and Portugal for the Euro to show any major signs of strength or weakness.
Exchange rates change every two seconds and in a volatile market a matter of a moments can gain or lose you significant amounts. We have a number of different contract options available to help safeguard your funds from sudden market movements. If you would like to speak with one of our friendly, experienced currency brokers then please contact me direct at atr@currencies.co.uk
Will the UK avoid another recession? GBP/EUR rates could be on the move. (Alistair Ryan)
Since the start of 2013 Sterling has lost a lot of ground against most major currencies and I believe that a defining aspect to whether we will see the pound fight back will be whether the UK can avoid a Triple Dip Recession. When Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are released at the end of this month we will know whether the UK has avoided the dreaded recession. At present analysts are split on their opinions as to whether it will be avoided, I for one believe that we will stay out of a recession but it is going to be very tight. Gross Domestic Product is a measure of how much an economy has grown or shrunk over a certain time period, in this case it will be for the first quarter of 2013. In order for us to avoid a Triple Dip Recession the figures must come out at 0% or above, anything negative would mean that we are officially in a recession. The last estimate for this detailed that the GDP figure would come in at -0.1%, revised up from -0.3% the previous month due to some positive data coming out of the UK…..this is how close it is going to be! Since these last estimates were released we have seen some slightly more positive data coming from the UK but with a few weeks left until the release there is still time for something else to come up.
My general opinion is that whichever way this goes we will see the markets move. If it announced that the UK has avoided the Triple Dip Recession then I would expect to see some Sterling strength off the back of this, alternatively if we do go in to a recession then I can see Sterling weakening against most major currencies.
Markets are so volatile at the moment that even the smallest announcement, that would usually have no effect on the markets, is moving rates significantly. Building up to the GDP announcement I think there will be a lot of uncertainty in the markets with investors very wary of where their funds are going. We have to remember that whilst this is going on in the UK there is still vast global uncertainty with the situation in Cyprus, Italian government elections, US debt ceiling and the general state of a host of major economies.
So, if you have an upcoming currency requirement, even if it is not in the imminent future it is worth speaking to me today as we have a number of contract options that can help safeguard your funds against market movements. If you would like to speak with one of our highly professional, experienced currency brokers then please contact me direct at atr@currencies.co.uk
How is the Cypriot situation affecting Euro Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)
With the instability with the Cypriot issue and banks having been closed for over a week on the island there are plans in place to re-open the banks by tomorrow. We have seen the GBPEUR exchange rates improve by almost 2% over the week since the problems in the Cyprus and more bad news could still come. With the Cypriots having agreed to remove the levy on bank customers with less than €100,000 deposits the majority of the island is breathing a sigh of relief but with the wealthy negatively affected this could have a knock on effect on the rest of the economy over the next few weeks.
Revised UK GDP figures were released earlier this morning showing -0.3% for the quarter on quarter period and having come in line of expectation we have seen little movement for Sterling. It appears as though the currency markets and in particular the Euro exchange rates are waited with bated breath to see the fallout of what may happen when the Cypriot banks re-open tomorrow. Personally, if i had my funds in Cyprus I would think about moving them out of the island as if things change again this could affect your deposits.
There are proposed limits on cash withdrawals and limiting amounts of Euros that can leave the country so if you’re thinking about selling Euros from Cyprus it may be worth consulting your bank to find out what limits have been set.
Some analysts think that the Cypriot issue is an isolated case but the question is could this issue have created a dangerous precedent for other countries within the Eurozone. If you are thinking about selling Euros and want to ensure you are getting the best exchange rates feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
For information about what is happening with the Australian Dollar and the Euro feel free to click on our sister website www.australiandollarforecast.com
As the market continues to digest the situation in Cyprus and the prospect of a 40% levy on certain bank deposits, it is likely to be the pound that is the overiding benefactor…..
Following the resignation of the Bank of Cyprus’ chairman Andreas Artemis – the Central Bank has taken steps to appoint an administrator to overlook the day to day running of the bank and until the full terms and day today running of the finances within Cyprus are made clearer (including proposed bank levies up to a maximum of 40% on some savings) it is likely to remain an extremely volatile period for the single currency. A major benefactor of this could well be the pound, indeed during the two week period of uncertainty the pound has gained just shy of 4% and with the continuing threat of the triple dip recession in the UK, this could be an unexpected opportunity for any Euro buyers. Tomorrow we will see the latest revised figures for GDP Q4 of 2012 followed by European Consumer Confidence figures and Business Sentiment. I would expect little difference from the GDP data but we could well see a slight change in confidence levels in the EU and this could create some further opportunities for Euro buyers tomorrow morning. Figures are released at 10:00.
When buying foreign currency it is important to give yourself the best opportunity to maximise your conversion. By using the services of a specialist foreign exchange brokerage this will give you the ability to take control of your currency requirement. This can be done through utilising one of the many contracts we have available such as spot/forward contracts and stop/loss or Limit orders. We will also aim to contact our clients as soon as a particular target rate has been achieved through our market rate alert service. To discuss the service we provide in full or to have me contact when a particular rate becomes available then please contact me at mgv@currencies.co.uk giving a brief description of your particular requirement and target rates in mind and I will be sure to alert you if this price becomes available.
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