Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Euro goes from strength to strength after ECB meeting, with EUR/GBP hitting an 8-month high! (Joseph Wright)

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A quick look through financial media and it’s clear that yesterdays upward spike for the Euro has left many financial commentators scratching their head as to why?

After a relatively dovish statement from Mario Draghi, the Euro has rallied hitting both an 8-month high against the Pound and it’s also worth noting that the Euro has hit a 2-year high against the US Dollar.

The arguments for the Euro to strengthen even further can be put down to improved political risks after victories for a number of pro-EU parties within Europe, as well as talk of reigning in the current Quantitative Easing program which is also considered a positive as the economy is getting closer to no longer needing propping up.

At the same time there is always the risk in a change in the fortunes for the Eurozone, so those planning on converting their Euros into Pounds or another major currency should bear in mind just how strong the currency actually is at the moment.

There aren’t any major news releases for the Pound or the Euro this morning but the ongoing Brexit talks in Brussels between UK and EU negotiators could well result in movement between the pair, which is why keeping in touch with us and registering your interest in the rate could well be worthwhile.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Pound to Euro buying rate likely to hold its ground at current levels, but will it manage to climb? (Joseph Wright)

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The Pound to Euro exchange rate has been range-bound for almost two months now, and although the rate has breached the general range of 1.13 to 1.14 the pair have generally been found trading at this level.

Both the UK’s future as well as the Pounds value are currently both uncertain at the moment as Brexit negotiations are currently taking place, and much of the Pounds short term movements both in the lead up the Brexit vote as well as since have been determined by political commentary.

Whilst I think there could be a short term spike in the GBP/EUR exchange rate in either direction off the back of a major Brexit related headline, it’s likely that the rate of inflation and whether or not there will be an interest rate hike from the Bank of England will remain the key talking points for the Pound which is why it’s worth keeping in touch with us.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding any short term price movements do feel free to register your interest with us, as being in the financial services sector and working with foreign exchange transactions generally means that we’ve got our finger on the pulse.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Pound to Euro rate bounces off an 8-month low as Sterling remains under pressure, will Sterling recover? (Joseph Wright)

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The Pound to Euro buying rate was trading in the €1.11’s earlier this morning, whereas this afternoon the pair have been trading above €1.13 at one stage.

The reason for the weak Pound this morning was due to one of the key members of the Bank of England not mentioning interest rates during a speech in Edinburgh yesterday afternoon.

The member of the BoE is Ben Broadbent and the reason the markets were keen to hear his opinion was because he’s yet to comment in recent weeks, and after an almost 50:50 vote in favour of raising interest rates last time round many were hoping that he would adopt a bullish stance which would most likely have resulted in Sterling strength.

The positive move for the Pound this afternoon is due to unemployment statistics for may impressing, which showed that UK unemployment is at its lowest level since 1975.

Our clients are able to benefit from being kept up-to-date and today is a good example of the benefits of our service.

On large transfers a 1 cent difference can make a large difference in monetary terms and today we’ve seen a larger than 1 cent trading range between GBP/EUR. We can either set up automatic orders with our clients or simply get in touch with clients on the phone once the level hits our clients target.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Pound to Euro rate hits its highest level so far this week, what could push the Pound higher? (Joseph Wright)

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Euro buyers were faced with the best buying levels seen so far this week, even if only by a small margin as the pair have remained very flat so far this week.

I personally think that the Pound has found some stability at its current level as GBP/EUR has found support in the 1.13’s with the pair rarely dipping below 1.1350.

In this flat market both clients looking to buy Euros at better rates and the markets in general will be looking for the next market mover, and in my experience after such a long period with little movement there can be a big swing once the reasons are there.

There is potential for market movement later today as ECB President Mario Draghi will be speaking. He tends to be quote positive and often we see the Euro strengthen in the wake of his comments or even during his speeches.

Interestingly analysts at UniCredit (a large Italian bank) believe that although an interest rate hike in the UK is premature, the expectations of a hike could result in Sterling gaining by up to 4% against both the US Dollar and the Euro.

A good way of taking advantage of short-term spikes in the market can be setting up a Limit Order. This way clients can set up an automatic order to trade at a higher level should that level become available.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Sterling Euro Holds at 1.14 and The Future Looks Positive (Ben Fletcher)

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Th GBP/EUR rate has continued to hold at the 1.14 day for another day, providing confidence that a jump could be on the cards. There was disappointing PMI data released this morning however it had little effect on Sterling. Whilst teetering in the 1.14’s is not to much to write home about, considering the negative trend of late a small show of strength does make a difference.

Mark Carney to Speak Friday

President of the Bank of England Mark Carney has been considered a bearer of bad news in the past for Sterling however after last week that changed. I would admit that Carney did cause the dramatic fall to 1.12 last month by suggesting there isn’t going to be interest rate hike, despite inflation being at a multi year high. Last week Carney backtracked saying the fiscal stimulus in place will be checked inevitably and there could be a need for a rate hike in the second half of 2017. This got markets excited for sterling’s future hence the near two cent jump.

On Friday Carney will once again speak and it seems unlikely his mind will change again. I don’t think he is going to guarantee a interest rate hike however I do think he may support once this year. News like this in my opinion could help the GBP/EUR rate move towards the 1.15 by as soon as Friday. As you know with currency markets there is always a danger that everything could change in a instant but a breakthrough into the 1.15’s would be a month high.

If you’re looking to purchase Euros in the near or long term future for any reason, I would be happy to discuss when might be a suitable time to complete your trade. If you send me a brief description of what you’re looking to do by email at brf@currencies.co.uk I will get back to you with my thoughts.

Ben Fletcher

Inflation to Potentially Boost Sterling This Week (Ben Fletcher)

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This morning the latest inflation report will be released for the UK and I am confident it will warn of future inflation level increases. This could be interpreted in one of two ways, both with quite different consequences for the GBP/EUR rate. Firstly there will be concerns that inflation is rising faster than wage growth which will eventually cause a pinch on consumers’ pockets, slowing spending.

Alternatively further rises in inflation levels will force the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to seriously consider an interest rate hike. This would provide a major boost for Sterling and in my opinion could see the rate move back above the 1.15 level. Mark Carney will speak at the end of this week and if he takes a hawkish tone then the GBP/EUR could once again receive a major boost.

GDP release on Friday

The latest growth data for the last 3 months will be revealed on Friday, once again this could be a two way path. If the data is goods then I believe a half a cent jump could happen, however as consumer spending has bene down in the last few weeks that could have an impact. In my opinion though a slight increase in growth is likely, the cost of petrol often acts as an indicator and when petrol falls like it has GDP is up.

If you do have a requirement to buy euros waiting till the end of the week could enable you to trade at the best time. I would be more than happy to discuss what you’re looking to do and put together a plan that best suits your needs. Working at a brokerage I am able to set market alerts, to make sure you’re trading at the level you want to achieve. Please send me a email briefly stating what you’re looking to do to brf@currencies.co.uk I look forward to hearing from you.

Ben Fletcher

Sterling Volatility with Mark Carney Speeches This Week (Ben Fletcher)

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Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak on Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon this week which could have a major impact on the GBP/EUR rate. Carney last week suggested there wasn’t much scope for an immediate interest rate hike, despite inflation growth however I think that tone might change. I think Carney will have to approach the interest rate prospects considering the level is already nearly a percent above the Bank of England’s mandated 2%.

Theresa May DUP Deal

The Prime Minister today confirmed her majority in the House of Commons signing a deal with Northern Irelands Democratic Union Party. For what sounds like a further £1.4bn to the Northern Ireland devolved Government budget, May has managed to purchase the vital support of 10 MP’s. Whilst this may not appear to be the most popular of agreements, May will now have the ability to vote through deals in the Commons.

Important data this week

Along with Mark Carneys two speeches this week, his counterpart from the European Central Bank Mario Draghi will also speak on Wednesday. Considering the recent strength in Eurozone data this could provide a boost for Euro sellers, however with talk of two bank bailouts in Italy the reality of extremes in the Eurozone may come home to roost soon.

For the UK there will be GDP data for the first quarter this year which could certainly create volatility if anything other than the expected is released. If you’re looking to complete a currency transfer I am able to assist with rates and timing of transfers. The markets constantly move and timing is one of the major factors to getting the best deal. If you would like to discuss an upcoming exchange please send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to create a plan that suits your needs.

Ben Fletcher

Pound to Euro buying rate improves as key Bank of England member gives a bullish speech (Joseph Wright)

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Clients hoping to buy Euros at a better rate have been given a boost today, which is surprising considering the gloomy outlook the governor of the Bank of England gave yesterday.

After dropping quite steeply yesterday as Mark Carney, the BoE governor said that he didn’t think an interest rate was needed in the short term future adding that it wouldn’t be right to raise rates without knowing the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.

The reason the Pound spiked upward today is because one of the more generally considered conservative members of the BoE today gave a surprisingly bullish speech, whereby he said that he expects to see an interest rate hike soon. The member is Andy Haldane and the news came out just after the Queens Speech around lunchtime today.

It’s very hard to tell which way the Pound will move next due to the mixed messages we’re currently receiving from key figures from within the UK’s financial sector.

In times like these it’s worth having a currency broker such as ourselves in order to keep you updated with big moves. We offer clients to chance to set up price target with us, whereby we can either notify you of the move or even have an automatic order set up in case of a short-term positive move.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Has the Pound to Euro exchange rate been oversold, and can it recover? (Joseph Wright)

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The lowest level the Pound to Euro buying rate has hit this week was 1.1280 in the early hours of Monday morning.

This fall was due to fears surrounding the potential deal to be struck between the Conservative and DUP parties within the UK, as last weeks election failed result in a clear majority for any of the political parties.

Political uncertainty tends to weigh on the underlying currency which is why we’ve seen the Pound fall recently, and the GBP/EUR rate was already dropping in the lead up to last weeks vote as the race for number 10 was looking a lot closer than many had expected when the election was first announced by Theresa May (UK Prime Minister).

Being in touch with a broker during these uncertain times can be very useful, as not only are we able to offer our clients trade options that perhaps their bank wouldn’t, but we’re also able to keep clients updated with any big moves in the exchange rates they’re concerned with.

Later today we could see some more movement between the Pound to Euro rate as the Bank of England will be announcing their interest rate decision. Although no change is expected the talks afterwards could offer us an insight into the BoE’s future plans so if you wish to be kept updated regarding today’s data, do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

GBP/EUR The Conservatives form coalition with the DUP (Daniel Johnson)

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With a Coalition in place could we be looking at Sterling strength?

With the conservatives failing to gain a majority victory they have formed  a coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The PM, may have been better to stay quiet during the campaign. When she called the snap election, it looked to be a shrewd move and as the conservatives are deemed as a safer bet than a Labor government we saw Sterling rally against the Euro. Then of course she attacked a section of  her core supporters by declaring the elderly will have to pay for there own care home or home care if they have assets in excess of £100k.

Labor gained momentum due to the onus on the young vote and promises of an increase to the NHS budget and an increase in policing. A hung parliament drew GBP/EUR down to the 1.13s. If we look at the 2010 election when the conservatives formed a coalition with the Lib Dems we saw the pound rise by five cents against the euro. We are yet to see any significant rise since the announcement of the conservative DUP coalition.

I doubt the DUP will prove problematic in Brexit negotiations which is definitely a good thing. A coalition government with different agendas could have caused serious problems in trade talks. Sir Ivan Rogers resigned as EU ambassador due to the unrealistic two year time scale for exit. He thought it would take closer to a decade. We need a decisive, competent and reliable government in place in  order to get trade deals in place in some of the most important negotiations in the last fifty years. Brexit negotiations will be a key factor in Sterling value.

If  you have a currency requirement it is vital to be in touch with a seasoned broker. The timing of your trade is crucial during such a volatile period, If you have an experienced broker on board they can keep you up to date with what is happening on the exchange to help you make an informed decision. Should you find our information useful and you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs.  I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. . Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

Daniel Johnson

Pound to Euro rate trades around a 2-week high as markets expect a Conservative majority, where to next for GBP/EUR?

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The Pound to Euro rate is trading in the blue once again this morning as the polls appear to be reflecting a Conservative victory once again.

As it stands there appears to be support for GBP/EUR at the 1.15 mark as the current range of around 30 pips so far this morning has been between 1.1501 – 1.1533. Interestingly the Pound is also up against almost all other major currency pairs this morning which is a positive turn for the Pound after the currency has been under pressure in recent weeks due to the narrowing in the polls.

It appears that the financial markets would prefer a Conservative majority as when they lead the polls the Pound rises and as the Labour party made up ground on the Conservatives we saw the Pound weaken. By the this time tomorrow the election result is likely to have been announced and I think that the Pound could spike upward in the event of a Conservative victory as it would allow the current government to carry out their Brexit plans without too much in-fighting within Westminster.

During times of potential volatility it can be worth placing a Limit Order, as this type of trade contract allows you to try and aim for a better rate than the current levels available. If you would like to discuss this in further detail do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Campaigning almost over, what next for sterling vs euro exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

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In recent articles that I have published yesterday evening and on Sunday, I have stated that a Conservative win should lead to sterling strength where as any other result could lead to the pounds demise. For people that have not got in touch so far and are regular readers I am guessing you have formulated a plan about the outcome of the election and therefore this article is going to look at factors that will influence exchange rates after the election.

On the 19th of June Brexit negotiations between the UK and Brussels will begin. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has announced that the Brexit divorce settlement is on the agenda however there is no reason why Brexit talks cannot run alongside. With the commentary coming from Brussels I find this difficult to believe. Brussels are suggesting a figure of €100bn where as the UK believe they wont have to pay a penny. As both parties are a million miles apart I believe this story could make headline news for the wrong reasons and therefore the pound could lose value.

If you are purchasing euros with pounds and have not got in touch as of yet, you must believe the Conservative party will win a majority and therefore the pound will rise in value. My personal opinion is that this will materialise however at that point when the pound has spiked against the euro, I believe you should take advantage and buy your currency. If you wish to save money on your currency conversion feel free to get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk and we can make a comparison against your current provider or bank.

In recent weeks President of the European Central bank has painted a picture that the eurozone economy is improving as a whole as unemployment numbers have fallen to their lowest levels and growth is steady. The most important question for the European Central Bank is when or will they taper the quantitative easing program which would therefore strengthen the euro?

With Mario Draghi given no hints so far I would be surprised if this happens within the next 3 months however I wouldn’t be surprised to see the President hint to a tapering of the program in the future which in turn would strengthen the euro.

All in all it looks like the future is looking brighter for the euro, however the US interest rate decision this month could have a negative impact on the euros value. It appears that the US will raise interest rates and consequently we could see a sell off of euros to buy US dollars as this is the most traded currency pair globally.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year and I have not covered the currency pair you are trading, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn