Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Pound to Euro rate hits an 11-month high, but will the pair break through 1.16? (Joseph Wright)

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The Pound to Euro exchange rate has retained its recent gains, leaving the pair comfortably trading at an 11-month high after the rate breached 1.15 recently.

Previously 1.15 had acted as a resistance level but once the Pound surged through it, it has since managed to hold onto the gains resulting in a more positive outlook for the Pound moving forward.

The reasons behind the recent gains can be attributed to the UK and EU negotiators coming to an agreement regarding the Brexit transitional deal. At the same time there is a very high probability that the Bank of England will hike interest rates next month, after the BoE has alluded to this move a number of times. The European Central Banks bearish comments regarding the negative impact of high inflation in the Eurozone has also helped push the Pound higher, leaving the pair sitting just below 1.16 at the time of writing.

Later this morning there is an important data release. UK Wage Growth will be released at 9.30am and its expected to surpass UK inflation levels for the first time since January 2017. If the release doesn’t disappoint I expect to see the rate hike next month from the BoE firmed up and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound climb and perhaps breach the 1.16 mark.

If you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, do feel free to register your interest with me, as we’re able to react quickly to market movements and help out clients.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

Pound to Euro rate starts the week well, but will it break 1.15?

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Sterling has begun the week in a strong fashion, and at the time of writing the GBP/EUR is pegged just below the 1.15 mark. This level is key as it’s the 10-month high and it’s acting as a resistance.

Those of our clients or potential clients making GBP to EUR transfers at the moment are doing so at the best levels since June of last year. Those hoping to improve on the current levels will need to see the rate hit new highs, and those with this plan can feel free to get in touch as discussing a Limit Order would be a good idea at this stage in case the Pound does see a spike.

It does appear that sentiment surrounding the Pound is improving, and last week there was a bout of poor data out of the UK economy yet Sterling hasn’t lost much value at all.

There is a quiet week on the cards for UK economic data releases, so I expect to see the GBP/EUR rate continue to be driven by sentiment. I would expect any talk regarding the Bank of England’s rate hike next month to impact the rates as the rate hike has been priced in already. Issues surrounding the Northern Irish border are also likely to impact rates, so those of our readers that wish to be notified in the event of a major move can feel free to get touch and register their interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

GBP/EUR- 1.15 Remains a Resistance Point (Daniel Johnson)

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What will it take to breach 1.15 and Remain above 1.15?

The pound has made significant gains against the majority of major currencies recently and has breached key resistance points against the greenback and the Aussie, 1.40 and 1.80 respectively. Against the Euro however we only saw GBP/EUR above 1.15 for a very small window of opportunity and the market quickly retracted.

There has been several catalysts for the pounds advance. We have seen a significant improvement in UK retail sales, previous figures came in at – 0.2% and there was predicted to be an increase to 0.4%. They actually landed at an impressive 0.8%.

We also witnessed average wage growth move closer to parity with inflation which is a real indication of a healthy economy. There was already a strong probability of a rate hike in May from the Bank of England (BOE), but these data releases bring it even closer.

There was further good news when it was announced the UK would have access to the single market during the Brexit transitional period. I am of the opinion if these events lack the influence to keep GBP/EUR above 1.15 it will take something significant to do so, Possibly clarity over the contentious Irish border deal.

For the last 11 months 1.15 has been a resistance point and so my stance remains the same for Euro buyers, if the market is in the 1.14s you are in a good position to trade.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Daniel Johnson

Eurozone Inflation levels likely to be a key market mover this week (Joseph Wright)

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Those following the Pound to Euro rate for some time will be aware that the current levels are towards the top end of the trend going back as far as the summer of last year.

Although when the news of the transitional deal broke we saw GBP/EUR spike as high as the 1.15 mark, it soon came back down but it has managed to hold onto some of these gains and remain comfortably trading in the 1.14’s.

The renewed bullishness and positive sentiment surrounding the UK economy is of course the reason for GBP strength, but the GBP/EUR pair have been helped by a weaker Euro in opinion which has helped the pair remain trading in the 1.14’s.

Last week there was a weak data release out of Germany, which is the engine room of the EU so it’s economic performance is monitored closely. It’s emerged than inflation levels in Germany have tailed off which is why many are expecting to see the Eurozone figure for inflation disappoint, and this has been limited gains in the Euros value in my opinion.

The data comes out tomorrow morning so if you wish to plan around its release do feel free to get in touch. At the same time there are a number of other issues that could impact the rate so do feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss any of these in further detail.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

UK growth figures released later this morning could impact GBP/EUR exchange rates (Joseph Wright)

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With one year to go before the Brexit officially takes place, the countdown begins with financial markets looking closely into the health of the UK economy.

Later this morning at 9.30am we will be given an idea of how the economy is fairing as UK GDP figures will be released. These figures will show us how much the UK economy grew during the last quarter of 2017, and the expectation is for 0.4% growth.

As markets are expecting to see this figure we can expect to see GBP exchange rates fluctuate if the figure released deviates from 0.4%, with rises likely if it’s greater and Sterling falls if it’s lower.

The Pound’s value has seen a boost in the last week after it emerged that the Brexit transitional deal has been agreed, which was an issue weighing down the Pound previously. Now that this has been agreed and a softer Brexit is likely to take place, I think that economic data releases will begin to carry weight when it comes to the Pound’s market movements.

The next key data release is next Tuesday, as Manufacturing data will be released and provide us with an update regarding the heath of this industry within the UK. If you have a currency exchange to make and would like to plan around this event, do feel free to get in touch as I’ll be happy to offer my own opinions on the market.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

What can we expect for Euro exchange rates in April?

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The Euro continues to perform well rising further against the pound this morning as the initial enthusiasm from the progress last week for sterling wears off and the Euro finds some favour. The biggest factor I believe will move the Euro will be the release of the ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision in the 26th April.

The ECB dropped their ‘easing bias’ at their last meeting which helped the Euro to strengthen. Expectations for the Euro could lead to further improvements for the single currency in the coming weeks as investors eye up the possibility of an interest rate hike and reduction in their QE (Quantitative Easing) program.

It looks to me like the pound and US dollar will continue to struggle against the Euro as markets eye up the longer term prospects for the Eurozone. With political and economic certainty in abundance in the Eurozone, the single currency is doing well. Germany has Merkel back at the helm and whilst there are concerns over the Italian and Spanish political events, these do not outweigh the political fears in the UK at the hands of Brexit, nor the concerns in the US under Donald Trump.

The Euro looks like it will continue to remain strong in April, any signs the UK or US might raise interest rates higher or sooner than previously believed could help to make inroads against the Euro. However, any spikes will surely be shortlived as the Euro continues its dominance and remains a risky currency to be betting against.

If you have any transactions that you will need to make please speak to me Jonny Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk, thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson

Pound climbs on hopes of a rate hike in May, how could this impact GBP/EUR moving forward? (Joseph Wright)

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The Pound jumped to its highest level against the Euro since early June last year during today’s trading session.

The rate went comfortably above 1.15 at it’s highest point today but it’s since dropped off back into the mid 1.14’s, which isn’t unusual to see when the rates jump to new high’s as profit taking usual puts pressure on the surging rate.

Aside from the positive news for the UK earlier this week when it emerged that the transitional Brexit deal has been arranged, the Pound has been boosted further today after the was shock result in the Bank of England’s voting members regarding their views on the monetary policy for the UK.

Markets had been expecting all 9 voting members of the BoE to vote in favour of keeping rates on hold at the moment, but 2 members shocked financial markets and voted in favour of hiking the rates at the moment. This has boosted hopes of a rate hike in May which is why the Pound saw a boost.

The comments after the vote were quite cautious as it was stated that the hikes would be gradual and limited which put a bit of pressure on Sterling, but personally i think that if the hike in May happens we’re likely to see a stronger Pound in the latter half of the year.

With the EU summit taking place in Brussels over the next few days I think those following the rates should be weary in case of further Brexit revelations.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

GBP/EUR rate flat amid Russian tensions, will the pair break out of their current trend? (Joseph Wright)

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The Pound to Euro rate is trading in a flat fashion at the moment, despite the Chancellor of the Exchequers Spring statement earlier this week being quite bullish regarding the UK economy.

The pair are struggling to break out of their current range which is between 1.1150 to 1.1350 or so, with the longer term trend being between 1.15 to 1.10. Last week was the flattest week for the pair since early 2016 which just goes to show the lack of movement at the moment despite there being quite a lot of issues that could potentially move the markets quite dramatically.

With the UK already having a lot to deal with in regards to the Brexit transitional agreement set to be arranged shortly, the UK now appears to be embroiled within a new Russian spy poisoning scandal after Sergei Skripal and his daughter were found poisoned after eating at a restaurant in Salisbury.

After failing to respond to the UK’s deadline regarding their stance on the matter, Russia has now been told by UK Prime Minister, Theresa May that 23 Russian diplomats will be expelled and that they have just 1-week to leave.

Should this issue to continue to materialise I think that there’s a chance we could see the Pound fluctuate, especially if a trade war begins.

There is a lack of economic data set for release this week so politics is likely to be the main driver of GBP/EUR this week.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Financial Services could be forced to relocate from London (Daniel Johnson)

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France try to steal British Tax revenue

France are making things problematic for the Britain in exit talks. Bruno Le Maire, French Economy Minister, has sis there is  little chance of the UK securing a free trade deal for financial services that would provide the level of access the UK require. Le Maire said that Britain would will be forced use a legal mechanism known as equivalence. Equivalence gives countries outside the EU limited access to the single market, access can be revoked at any time which would certainly not be suitable for financial services. Goldman Sachs have already started moving UK based employees to Germany due to the uncertainty surrounding their future.

Theresa May’s call for a mutual recognition system that  would still give UK financial services access to the single market has already been refused. Single Market access for financial services is one of the key factors in Brexit talks and this could be a major point of contention. Financial services sector is the UK’s biggest form of tax revenue.

France’s thinly veiled ruse to turn France’s capital into the new centre of financial services is causing real trouble for the UK economy and Sterling as a result.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

Sterling loses ground to the Euro as time for a UK-EU Brexit deals is running out (Joseph Wright)

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The rate for changing Pounds into Euros has weakened this week, with the GBP/EUR rate dropping below 1.12. This is a key level as for some time the pair have been trading between 1.12 to 1.1450 so it looks like the support level of 1.12 may about to be broken.

The reason for the uncertainty is due to fears surrounding the proposed Brexit transitional deal and whether the UK and EU negotiators are able to iron out their differences, and move forward allowing the UK a smooth transitional period.

Later this month there will be an EU summit in Brussels on the 22nd and 23rd of the month. The transitional Brexit deal is expected to be agreed by these dates so with no news of the agreement yet I don’t think its unusual to see the Pound lose value as uncertainty mounts.

I think that those following the pair and planning on making a transfer between them should also consider how the Italian election outcome has barely impacted the rates. Many may have expected to see the Euro lose value after the election failed to result in a clear winner, as now there may even need to be a repeat. The Euro has remained resilient though and now it’s trading comfortably in the 1.11’s meaning that the Euro has actually gained value since the election outcome.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Could a cut in QE be on the cards from the ECB? (Daniel Johnson)

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Is a cut in QE justified?

The Eurozone’s economy is looking impressive, we have seen some of the best growth figures in over a decade. Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) has also hinted to a cut in Quantitative Easing (QE).

QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. This has been done in the past in other regions with it’s success being questionable. It seems QE can be justified in the Eurozone, although it has created debt in the trillions.

QE was cut last year from €60bn to €30bn, if there was to be a further cut we can expect the Euro to strengthen considerably. I think in order for this to occur or indeed a change in Interest Rates we will need to witness an increase in inflation, something the Eurozone has struggled with for sometime. Another worry is the stance of the Federal Reserve on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD is the most commonly traded currency pair in the world. The Euro currently sits at some of the highest levels against the US Dollar since 2014 and Several Federal Reserve members have stated they are unconcerned with US Dollar weakness. This could definitely become a cause for concern for members of the bloc as the high value of the Euro could hurt exports and seriously hinder economic growth.

Keep an eye on trade data if you are looking at trading the Euro medium to long term as this will give an indication as to the health of imports and exports.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor.

You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.
If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

Daniel Johnson

Will disagreements surrounding Brexit scupper the Pounds value in future? (Joseph Wright)

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Despite the UK economy picking up steam to the extent that the Bank of England is considering raising interest rates, gains for the Pound have been limited recently as a number of issues surrounding the Brexit clearly need ironing out.

Brexit related news along with comments from senior figures regarding the discussions are the main movers for GBP exchange rates at the moment, so those of our readers planning on making a transfer involving the Pound and the Euro should close attention to this topic.

There is currently a very public argument between senior politicians regarding the stance of the UK post-Brexit on the customs union, and how the UK will operate during the transitional period and afterwards.

The UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May will be speaking on Friday which could potentially move markets depending on what’s said. Last week there was a key meeting between a number of senior cabinet members at her country residence, the Chequer’s which took place behind closed doors.

There is also some key data releases this week such as UK Manufacturing tomorrow morning. Do feel free to get in touch if you wish to plan around this event or any other similar data releases.

As next month approaches I expect to see the Italian election hit the headlines as there are a number of anti-EU movements in the country which could dent the Euros value depending on the election outcome.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W