Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Pound to Euro rate hits a 6 week high, why is the Pound climbing and will it continue? (Joseph Wright)

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The Pound soared during yesterdays trading session making the exchanging of Pounds into Euros as well as other major currencies a more attractive proposition.

The GBP to EUR exchange rate has hit a 6-week high and the main news regarding the Pound at the moment is that the Pound to US Dollar rate is at a 1-year high with the Pound having recovered around half of its losses since the Brexit vote.

The reason the Pound has been climbing is because the Inflation rate came out higher than expected yesterday at 2.9%, which is the joint highest the level has hit this year. This increases the chances of an interest rate hike which is why the Pound is climbing as a rate hike is generally considered a positive for the underlying currency.

There are still forecasts for the Pound to Euro rate to fall and hit parity in 2017 and these predictions have come from a number of major financial institutions such as Citi and HSBC so those planning on converting Pounds into Euros should be aware of this as the current rate may be a short term buying opportunity if those forecasts are correct.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Services PMI data causes volatility on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

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Services PMI causes Sterling Spike

Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data was released in Europe and the UK today with varying results. Services PMI is an indicator of the economic situation in the  services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. Anything above 50 indicates growth.

There was a slight increase from Germany up by 0.1%, but French figures showed a significant drop of 0.6%. This was enough to see GBP/EUR strike a 2 week high of 1.0939. This was despite a small contraction the UK services sector of 0.3%.

If you are buying Euros I would be wary of thinking this will be a sustained rally. Sterling is being anchored by two major factors.

  1. Political uncertainty. Historically the currency in question weakens during a period of political uncertainty. With growing pressure on Theresa May to vacate her position as PM it does little to help the pound. Until there is  a stable government the pound will have a great deal of trouble making any significant gains.
  2. Brexit is the other major catalyst for Sterling weakness as  there is no clarity on the UK’s stance and there is conflict between UK negotiators and Brussels over payment of the proposed exit bill. Bad news is better than no news on the currency market which is why GBP/EUR still sits below 1.10.

There is also the possibility the ECB could announce tapering QE. If this is the case GBP/EUR could reach parity by the end of the year.

During such tough times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

Sterling to Euro rate slides as construction sector hits a one-year low, will Brexit worries continue to impact Sterling? (Joseph Wright)

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Earlier this morning it was announced that the growth in Britain’s building sector as fallen to its lowest level in a year, and I personally think its worth noting that the last time the figure was this low it was shortly after the Brexit vote!

UK commercial construction slumped for a 2nd consecutive month as it appears concerns over the Brexit has negatively impacted new investment into the sector. The data resulted in a drop to the Pounds value which has got progressively worse throughout the day, and at the time of writing the Pound is down by almost 1% against the Euro as well as being down against the majority of other major currencies.

An expert in the area, Duncan Brock of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply today suggested Brexit uncertainty is hurting the UK construction sector. He said that the struggling commercial sector drove this fall so those hoping for a boost to the Pounds value may wish to also watch the UK property sector as it’s currently a driving factor in the Pounds value.

Tomorrow morning there will be a release of Services PMI data which will cover sentiment within the area. The services sector covers two-thirds of the UK economy so expect any major deviations from the figure expected (53.5) to result in movement between the pair.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Sterling climbs for the first time in a while, is this a reversal for the current trend? (Joseph Wright)

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Sterling bucked the trend during today’s trading session and climbed by almost 3/4 of a percent against the Euro.

Today’s strength for the Pound against the Euro is significant in my opinion as earlier today it emerged that eurozone economic sentiment has hit a 10-year high after figure released beat expectations. The positive feel can be put down to optimism in the industrial and service sectors as well as among consumer spending.

This could be an indicator of future strength for the Euro and their are no shortage of economists predicting further gains for the currency, although today has provided Sterling sellers with what could either be a short-term buying opportunity for the pound, or the beginning of a reversal in the currency’s fortunes.

Sterling may well have been boosted not just by day traders looking to pick up the currency on the cheap, but also because mortgage approvals in the UK beat expectations for the month of July which I think is significant after fears of a slowdown in the UK property market are beginning to surface.

Tomorrow morning as well as on Friday there are further data releases that could impact the markets, and if you would like to discuss these do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Mario Draghi Causes Euro Gains (Ben Fletcher)

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The President of the European Central Bank speaking this morning, has as expected caused the GBP/EUR rate to drop falling into the 1.08’s. Along with yesterday when the rate briefly touched this point it’s the first time since September 2009. There is now definitely scope for the GBP/EUR rate to continue to fall and over the next few weeks there is a potential for the rate to reach 1.07 in my opinion. The European Central Bank may also consider tapering their current bond buying program which would also cause a boost for the Euro.

What Can Help Sterling?

In all honesty there is little that could cause a major turn of events and until Brexit talks come to an end the low rates may continue. Sterlings drop against the Euro has been a lot worse than other currencies as the Euro is considerably strong at the moment with further strength on the cards. There has been a release of Brexit white papers over the course of the last week and is expected to be another nine taking the total to 12. If there is an announcement regarding the Brexit negotiations and its positive news then Sterling may start to see a change of events. However in my honest opinion I think we could be waiting till mid 2018 for that to happen.

On a positive note if you’re looking to sell Euros back to Sterling then it is the best time in 8 years to complete a transfer.

If you do have a question with regards to my forecast please get in touch. When you come to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me at brf@currencies.co.uk

Ben Fletcher

Predictions for GBP/EUR parity are on the increase, why is the Pound expected to fall? (Joseph Wright)

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In the past week there have been a number of major financial institutions predicting that the Pound to Euro rate is likely to hit parity next year, meaning a 1 for 1 exchange at the inter-bank level, with some even forecasting that GBP/EUR could fall below this mark.

HSBC are backing further Euro strength and think that if the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to avoid commenting on the recent bout of Euro strength, this could give the Euro the green light to continue its strong run as it appear that the ECB aren’t concerned by the strength of the Euro.

HSBC are also predicting further gains for the EUR to USD exchange rate so it’s not just Sterling strength that could push GBP/EUR lower, but Euro strength.

These comments from the major bank come shortly after similar ones from Morgan Stanley. Just yesterday a report on the BBC reported Morgan Stanley’s predictions of Sterling weakness in future without the headline topic being that the GBP/EUR rate could drop below parity for the first time ever in 2018.

These predictions are both longer term with next year being cited as the time when GBP/EUR could see parity, and at the time of writing the pair are trading just over 1.10. Later this morning there will be the release of inflation data which is likely to be keenly watched as those hoping for a boost to Sterling’s value will hope for a high figure resulting in talk of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England, which would be Sterling positive.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Further falls for GBP/EUR according to city analysts, will GBP/EUR fall below 1.10? (Joseph Wright)

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Despite rising from it’s lowest levels since the Brexit vote, the Pound isn’t expected to reverse its current downward trend against the Euro according to some key figures from within the financial services sector.

The UK is now one of the worse performing economies within the G10, and with news emerging that the UK’s property market is beginning to stagnate and that foreign investment into the UK is reducing I’m not surprised by some of the warnings analysts are offering.

The lead Foreign Exchange Strategist with Morgan Stanley, Hans Redeker recently advised staying ‘short’ on the Pound. For those unfamiliar with this terminology it means betting that the Pound will continue to fall.

Should his prediction be correct I think it’s likely that we can expect to see the Pound fall below the 1.10 mark which is currently acting as a support level.

Those planning on making a Pound to Euro transfer should be aware that the Pound has previously fallen below this psychological trading level, and that there have been predictions of a fall for the Pound down to parity with the Euro.

There is a bout of data out of the UK tomorrow at 9.30am which cause provide the Pound with a boost should the Industrial and Manufacturing data impress.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

What will weaken the Euro?

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The commentary is all around Euro strength at the moment but what could weaken the Euro? Well at the moment there are a number of potential hidden events that might rise in the future and cause the Euro to weaken. If you are selling Euros for pounds and rubbing your hands together expecting the rate to just improve could prove costly. Continued political certainty and a strong economy are all reason to predict further Euro strength but often on exchange rates the complete opposite can and does happen!

It is in no one’s interest, least of all the European Central Bank to see a strong Euro. To help stimulate economic growth the ECB want a weaker Euro to help drive economic recovery in the Eurozone. The strengthening Euro is potentially building up problems for a later date and the ECB will be keen to monitor this. Work of the ECB could also undermine the Euro in another sense as they embark on withdrawing their QE (Quantitative Easing) program.

When the US withdrew their QE program through the taper, the US dollar weakened as investors panicked over the outcome for financial markets. Whilst most central forecasts predict the Euro will rise, any paring back of these expectations could actually weaken the Euro. Plus any signs the QE taps will remain on longer than expected would also see the Euro weaker, there are no guaranteed outcomes on exchange rates!

All in all the going looks set to be tough for Euro buyers, but good for Euro sellers. Quick movements on the currency markets can see changes in thousands of pounds or Euro of the value of your currency exchanges. We offer a specialist view and market insight into the latest trends to help you with the timing and planning of any exchanges.

For more information and strategies relevant to your position please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson

Demand for the Euro forces the Pound to Euro rate down to its lowest levels since November 2016, will the trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

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Despite strengthening against some of the major currencies in recent weeks, the Pound is coming under increasing pressure against the Euro as anyone watching the GBP/EUR rate will have noticed.

Data out of the UK recently hasn’t been as alarming as many pessimists have predicted so the movement we’re seeing between the GBP and EUR pair is mostly being driven by the Euro.

The reason for the Euros good fortune in recent times can be put down to both some of the underlying issues within the Eurozone waning, along with the demand for the Euro on the up due to the US Dollar coming under increasing pressure.

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate has gained over 12.5% so far this year due to it becoming an in demand currency. It’s benefited from investors becoming concerned with the ongoing investigations into the Trump/Russia ties as well as some of the erratic decision making from US President Donald Trump.

The Pound to Euro rate is now trading towards the bottom end of it’s post-Brexit trend so it will be interesting to see whether the Pound finds support at this level or whether it will break below the psychological 1.10 level.

There is a lot of important data out in the UK tomorrow around lunchtime, and if you’re planning on making a currency exchange and would like to discuss it, do feel free to get in touch with me and arrange a call should you wish to.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Will GBPEUR fall below 1.10?

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Over the last 12 months the pound has consistently lost value agains the euro. Exchange rates are now fluctuating in the lower teens and I believe GBPEUR exchange rates could fall below 1.10 this week.

Eurozone inflation numbers will be released Tuesday morning and the consensus is for the numbers to remain steady at 1.3%. This does not surprise me as the euro has been gaining value across the board which in turn makes goods and services cheaper.

As inflation has been improving this is putting pressure on the European Central Bank to taper the Quantitative Easing program. President Mario Draghi hinted towards potentially tapering the program in the Autumn.

Inflation for the UK disappointed this month and dropped to 2.6% from 2.9%. Consequently the pound lost value against all of the major currencies.

This week the Bank of England are set to release their latest interest rate decision. The interest rate decision last month was split 5-3 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold at 0.25%. With the inflation numbers falling I expect this could drop to 6-2 and therefore GBPEUR exchange rates could fall below 1.10.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year and I have not covered the currency pair you are trading, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURGBP, EURUSD, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 Monday morning and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn

Is the Pound to Euro rate going to find support at 1.12, or will the sell-off continue?

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Over the past two-months the Pound has fallen by almost 6% from it’s high, with the rate dropping into the 1.11’s at its lowest stage even if only for a short while.

There appears to be a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the future of the UK since the Conservative Party lost the snap election earlier this year. With Brexit talks ongoing there is also the chance of an unexpected update which could put further strain on the Pounds value which is why we’re seeing the Pound to Euro pair trading around its lowest levels in 8-months.

It’s not just Sterling weakness that has caused this steep fall, but also Euro strength.

Fears surrounding the Eurozone moving forward appear to have waned, after a number of right-leaning populist parties have failed to win any key elections within the key members of the Eurozone.

At the same time there has been talk from the European Central Bank of reducing the amount of Quantitative Easing currently being put into the Eurozone economies.

The issues surrounding Greece are also looking more positive which is another bonus for Euro sellers or those hoping for a strong Euro.

Moving forward I think whether or not the GBP/EUR rate consolidates below 1.12 will be of utmost importance, as I think that if the rate drops below 1.10 there is a chance that parity could be on the horizon longer term.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

Will GBPEUR fall through 1.10?

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The pound is looking like it could easily slip further, there is some very big news for the pound today which if not good news would easily see GBPEUR drop lower. UK GDP released at 09.30 am this morning could easily unsettle the pound as the figures are due for 0.3% versus the 0.2% expected. Whilst this could see the pound higher any figures below this could see the pound lower and a drop below 1.10 cannot be ruled out. Clients interested in buying Euros at a higher level could see something positive following this release but there is a risk it will drop.

If you are interested in buying or selling Euros at a higher or lower level then this is the release to be following closely. However this evening is some further news which could also help, the US releases its latest interest rate decision this evening and that could easily see some movement on the US dollar which would also have an effect on EURUSD exchange rates. This movement on EURUSD exchange rates can then influence GBPEUR as the Euro is weighed down higher or lower.

This evening’s US interest rate decision is therefore also key to future direction on GBPEUR exchange rates, if you don’t see the level you are looking for in the next 24 hours Friday is the latest US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data which could easily upset the trends. Overall expectations in the future are that we will see a softer US dollar which will lead to a stronger Euro.

The general impression for the GBPEUR rate is a move lower, for Euro buyers I would be looking at some form of protection. Euro sellers might wish to hang on hoping that they see some improvements. If you would like any assistance with the timing and planning of exchanges please contact me Jonny by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson