Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Eurozone Growth lowest since 2014 (Daniel Johnson)

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The Bloc set to face some serious economic issues in 2019

If it were not for Brexit I think the Pound could be making gains against the Euro. I am of the opinion the Euro could be in for a rough 2019.

The situation with Greece has seemingly been swept under the carpet and Italy has entered into a recession and is second only to Greece on national debt. Germany is the engine room of the Eurozone and has only just avoided recession. There is also concern regarding the increase in support of right wing parties in France and Germany. This has the potential to cause political uncertainty  and in turn weaken the Euro.

The situation with US trade should also be noted. The Trump administration has made some serious threats including a potential huge tariff on vehicles which would hit Germany hard due to it’s heavy reliance on vehicle exports.

Let us also look at Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is a controversial monetary policy in which a central bank purchases securities in order to lower interest rates and boost money supply. It has been used on several occasions around the globe delivering mixed results. It will be interesting to see how the Eurozone copes without it. The European Central Bank (ECB) put an end to QE in December. It was at one stage up to €80mil in monthly increments. Although ECB President, Mario Draghi has said in the past that QE was working current figures show that the bloc is experiencing the lowest levels of growth since 2014. It will be interesting to see how the Eurozone will deal with the above issues without the aid of QE.

Despite the fragility of the pound I think later in the year we could see some  gains for Sterling following Article 50.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 18yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

Daniel Johnson

Is the Eurozone facing a Recession? (Daniel Johnson)

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Draghi blames drop in growth on global economic slowdown

Economic growth in the Eurozone has now slowed to its lowest point since 2014. Purchase manager index forecasts do not make pleasant reading either which points toward further falls in business activity in 2019.Forecasts suggests growth has the potential to drop below 1.5%.

The President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi has played down talks of a recession blaming the economic downturn on exterior factors such as  trade wars and a global economic slowdown. When recently questioned about the fall in GDP he said the following “the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility”.

He has attempted to ease investor concerns by stating the chance of a recession within the bloc is low and the labour market is the strongest it has been in years. Eurozone unemployment currently stands at 7.9% the lowest in over a decade.

I do not share his optimism. There is still the problems in Greece which is seemingly being swept under the carpet, Italian debt is now second only to Greece and the engine room of the Eurozone, Germany has just narrowly avoided a recession.

It is also yet to be seen how the Eurozone will cope without Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. Monthly increments were at one point above €60mln, with the ECB putting an end to QE in December it will be interesting to see how the bloc will cope with growth at such a low level already.

If it were not for Brexit I think Sterling could be making impressive gains against the Euro. Looking at GBP/EUR in detail the fragility of the pound is again being displayed , dropping form an 18 month high of 1.1602 to the low 1.14s today. I am afraid Theresa May could have a very tough time getting any concessions from Brussels. Jean Claude Junker, European Commission President has stated on serval occasions there will be no changes made to the current Brexit deal and with Morgan Stanley suggesting there is less than a 5% of a no deal scenario May has no ammunition in talks.

I think we could see further losses for Sterling despite the problems in the Eurozone.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.
If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you

Daniel Johnson

Euro Forecast: Euro weaker on IMF Report

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The IMF, International Monetary Fund reduced its forecast for global economic growth in 2019, highlighting increasing threats from the Trade Wars and concerns over in particular the European and German economy. The Euro lost ground as the report indicated the German economy was most at risk from a global slowdown, as the biggest economy in the Eurozone any weakness here is bad news for the Euro as a whole.

The IMF report highlighted a number of growing global issues which include the Brexit also. A key component of European growth is the motor industry and with the United States the main export market for the German car industry, accounting for 8.7% of exports, the fears over a slowing US economy and Trade Wars lowering demand, has weighed on the Euro.

The Euro could now struggle as investors fears over global growth start to manifest in the selling off of currencies which might be negatively influenced. Germany is not the only economy in Europe to be under pressure, Italy was also highlighted in the IMF report as a country with worsening economic prospects.

It is no secret of the political issues in Europe with populist parties gaining support across the region and worrying the markets. A key concern for me is the French situation as Macron the French Prime Minister is potentially losing support and we have very important European elections coming up.

Any rise in more populist parties in the European parliament will undermine the strong values which have supported confidence in the region. This could ultimately see the Euro weaker too and the IMF is I believe right to highlight potential future weakness in the Euro.

Of course, problems are not confined to the Eurozone. Brexit is a major headache for the UK and also the global economy too. Investors will need to be aware of the potential for a no-deal Brexit to also weigh on the UK and other global sentiments. The Trade Wars and US government shutdown too could also impact the US economy.

There are currently numerous global events which might trigger unexpected changes in the currency markets, as investors are forced to reprice currencies according to the risk their respective economies represent.

If you have a position buying or selling the Euro then making sure you are aware of all of the global events which might move the market is crucial to maximising your position. To discuss or receive an overview of your situation and what option would suit you best, please contact me Jonathan Watson to discuss further.

Thank you for reading and I welcome any feedback or comments.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Jonathan Watson

Will GBP/EUR be affected by the Brexit vote next week?

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We’re now less than a week away from what’s being billed as a meaningful vote on UK Prime Minister May’s Brexit plan, after the original date set in December was postponed.

May decided to postpone the vote at the last minute owing to fears of a landslide loss and these concerns remain. The GBP to EUR exchange rate has remained range-bound and traded within a thin range over the past week as the markets await the outcome of the result. Some market commentators believe that the GBP/EUR rate could fall dramatically in the event of a no-deal Brexit so next week’s vote is key, as it could pave the way for either a deal or no deal Brexit.

It’s been reported that some high street bookies are offering odd’s of 3-1 that GBP/EUR will hit parity during this years trading which would be the lowest level for the pair in the history of the Euro. The lowest the pair have reached is 1.02 and that was back in the height of the financial crisis in 2009.

Yesterday evening the UK government lost a vote regarding amendments to the Finance Bill which may now make a No-Brexit more difficult, and this loss was the first in 40-years according to reports. Today the debate on the EU withdrawal agreement in the House of Commons will begin for the first time since the winter recess period, so there could be market movement if any major updates are announced.

If you wish to be kept updated regarding the GBP/EUR rate do feel free to register your interest with me, as working on a trading floor allows us to react to the moves as they happen.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Will 2019 bring a wider range of trade levels for GBP/EUR?

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It’s been well documented on this blog that last year the Pound to Euro rate failed to move outside of the 1.10 to 1.15 range, and this has been the case for over a year now.

This year in my opinions holds the potential for some greater market movements and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pair move out of the 5% deviation we’ve seen for a while now. Those following UK politics will be aware that the Brexit is now just around the corner, as the date of the expected divorce from the EU is scheduled to take place on the 29th of March.

This month could be busy for GBP exchange rates as well as crucial for the UK moving forward as there is an expected key vote on the Brexit deal that PM May has proposed and drawn up with her EU counterparts. The previous vote was cancelled right before the proposed vote and this was because May feared a substantial loss. Her position was called into questions subsequently and now she’s survived the vote of no-confidence her next task will be to try and push her deal through parliament.

Those of our readers planning on making a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro should be aware that next vote is scheduled to take place on the week commencing on the 14th of January. I expect the Pound to be sensitive to the result of this vote so those of our readers planning a transfer can feel free to get in touch for both opinions and to be updated in the event of major market movements.

A number of EU based economies have also begun to show signs of an economic slowdown, including Germany so there is potential for the Euro to drop if this signs continue and the political concerns remain.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Could today’s data releases impact the GBP/EUR exchange rate?

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There could be market movement for the GBP/EUR pair today, as there are a number of UK related data releases which could cause fluctuations. The pair have been trading within a relatively thin range all week which for the most part was between 1.11 and 11.50, although over the past 24-hours it has dipped back into the later 1.10’s.

At 9.30am this morning there will be Retail Sales figures out of the UK  which I expect to be followed closely, as markets will be weary of the UK economy showing a slowdown as Brexit approaches and the uncertainty ramps up. Also this sector of the UK economy has been coming under pressure with a number of popular stores falling into administration over the past year.

Later on in the day there will be a Bank of England interest rate decision and although no changes are expected, the comments afterwards are likely to be followed closely though as wage growth has hit the highest level in 10 years recently and there may be some members of the monetary policy committee that believe a rate hike will be needed for this reason.

From the Euro side of things the arrangement between the Italian coalition government and the EU regarding its Budget is a positive for the time being, although the markets have remained relatively unchanged as many believe the problems have just been delayed.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

GBP/EUR drops as the chances of a no-deal Brexit increase, where to next for the pair?

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The Pound to Euro exchange rate dropped yesterday to almost the lowest levels in the past year, as the chances of a no-deal Brexit appear to be increasing. The UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May yesterday announced that she’s postponing the vote on her deal within parliament after previous saying that it would be taking place later today, and since then we’ve seen the Pound continue to drop in value touching new annual lows.

When compared with the US Dollar, the Pound has dropped to its lowest level in 20-months and as previously mentioned, the GBP/EUR rate is close to its annual low which is just below 1.10. During Theresa May’s announcement yesterday she stated that she will be travelling to Berlin to seek assurances regarding the Northern Irish back-stop where she will meet a number of EU leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The hope for Downing Street is that some European leaders, especially Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, will be willing to agree changes to the current Brexit deal which will guarantee to avoid a hard border within the Irish sea. The Irish back stop agreement has so far been the biggest sticking issue and its resulted in the DUP party (the Northern Irish party that props up May’s Conservatives) refusing to support May’s Brexit plan. May decided to postpone the vote because of the lack of support she would receive and Sterling has come under pressure since although some positive economic data from the UK this morning and offered the Pound some support at least for now.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement for the GBP/EUR pair, do feel free to register your interest with us.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

Could this week’s Brexit updates and Commons debates cause movement for the GBP/EUR pair?

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After a disappointing day for UK Prime Minister, Theresa May yesterday the markets are awaiting another key Brexit related release at 11.30am this morning. Yesterday May suffered three parliamentary defeats in just one day, as MP’s look to gain more control of the Brexit process.

Yesterday’s parliamentary debate didn’t start until late in the evening as much of day was taken up by discussions surrounding whether or not the Government must publish the full legal advice it received regarding Brexit. It turns out they do and the report will be released at 11.30am this morning which the markets anticipate and there will also be another debate held in parliament spearheaded by a member of May’s Cabinet. This is expected to start this afternoon and there will be another 3 days of debates in the lead up to next week’s key vote on the deal next Tuesday.

Keeping on top of the data releases and Brexit updates is of course very difficult at the moment as the pressure ramps up on May and her controversial  Brexit plan. Some political commentators are suggesting May could even resign next week although personally I don’t think she will. If she does I think there would be a drop in the Pound’s value owing to the uncertainty this would create close to the expected Brexit date at the end of next March.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement for the Pound, do feel free to register your interest. At 12pm today May will be facing questions from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn at PMQ’s. The Chancellor of Exchequer, Philip Hammond will be speaking at 1pm to give evidence to the Commons Treasury committee about Brexit, and at 1pm Sajid Javid will be the Cabinet member holding today’s Commons Brexit debate.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Will the Euro weaken further in December?

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The Euro has been under pressure after a weekend that saw rioting in Paris and a far-right party gain power in Adalusia, Spain. Political concerns across the Eurozone are being closely monitored, following the gap in political dominance, following the steps taken back by Angela Merkel. With concerns growing about the future direction of politics within the Eurozone, there are questions over to what extent this will affect the Euro.

The Vox party gained support with 12 seats being won out of a total of 109. This is indicative of the general trend in Europe to reject the established order of centrist and socialist powers, with governments becoming more and more right wing and extreme. Such a direction is concerning for financial markets since it could be a trigger for a fracturing of the existing order and lead to less economic cooperation between the Eurozone countries.

In France, Macron is struggling to get a grip on the protests that have now turned to riots over an unpopular fuel tax. The growth of support in far-right and far-left governments could easily destabilise the Euro and markets will now closely follow just how this story pans out. Macron had gained power on a promise to be able to tackle such groups but he is now facing calls to resign, over his mishandling of the issue.

The Euro has a tough month ahead with the latest news from the ECB, European Central Bank next week. The ECB has been promising to withdraw their QE plans but many suspect they might need to look at more accommodative measures to keep their economic recovery  on track. Clients with a position buying or selling Euros should be very aware of a potentially very volatile period ahead as the market tries to second guess the ECB.

December and 2019 could well see some new pockets of uncertainty owing to political concerns which would put further pressure on the ECB, who have a history of being overly optimistic with their designs on monetary policy.

Thank you for reading and if you wish to discuss further the movements on the Euro and how it might influence your transactions, please do contact me Jonathan Watson to discuss further.

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson

Pound to Euro rate tests 1.13 once again, could today’s key releases result in fluctuations for the pair?

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The Pound’s general direction has reversed this morning with GBP exchange rates up across the board of major currency pairs. Yesterday we saw Sterling come under pressure as UK Prime Minister May’s Brexit plan continues to come under scrutiny. At the same time US President Donald Trump suggested the deal looks great for the EU but not so much for the UK and questioned whether the US and UK would be able to strike deals once Brexit takes place.

This morning sentiment appears to have improved, and I believe that this is because there are media reports suggesting the Government will allow amendments to May’s Brexit plan to be put forward by MP’s ahead of the key vote next month.

Next month on the 11th of December there will be a meaningful vote on the withdrawal agreement and I think the Pound is likely to come under pressure between now and then owing to the uncertainty regarding the deals support. Two days prior to the vote there is talk of a televised debate involving Theresa May which could also be a potential market mover depending on how well she performs during the debate, as it could determine the support she receives.

On the Euro side there does appear to be some progress regarding the ongoing saga of the Italian Budget. The coalition government would like to spend more domestically than the EU is prepared to allow and this has been a drag on the Euros value for a while now. Should the matter get resolved I’m expecting to see the Euro strengthen as its been putting strain on Italy’s relationship with the European Union.

Later today at 4.30pm the Bank of England’s Brexit scenario analysis will be released and this will cover the withdrawal agreement. A Financial Stability along with stress tests on major banks will also be released so those of our readers following GBP exchange rates should be aware of this. You can also register your interest with us if you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

Brexit Deal could be agreed imminently (Daniel Johnson)

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 Brexit – Are we on the cusp of a deal?

GBP/EUR remains dominated by Brexit developments. 1.15 has been a resistance point for 18 months and seems to be still holding despite yesterday’s positive news. The reason for the spike in pound value is due to the speculation that a Brexit deal could be imminent. There is a cabinet meeting at 2pm where Theresa May is expected to outline a draft agreement for Brexit, If approved without any resignations there is the distinct possibility of an EU summit late in November.(23rd-25th is rumoured)

The view is that this will result in a formal deal between Westminster and Brussels. If this does occur expect Sterling to rally.

Do not think a deal  is now a foregone conclusion, the deal is far from agreed and it is also important to remember that the deal will also have to be voted through by the cabinet in December/January which will be no easy task. With so much in house fighting and Boris’ thinly veiled ruse to oust Theresa May this could well be a stumbling point.

The market continues to sit around 1.15 despite this news, the markets don’t lie and investors are not convinced the deal is done. Every time 1.15 is breached the market retracts. If you have a requirement buying Euros you are currently at the peak of the market. I would consider doing a tranche of my trade at current levels for safety. Euro sellers trade now. Pre-Brexit GBP/EUR was 1.42, selling at 1.15 is still well below the historical average. I think weighing up risk vs reward I would take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

 

 

Daniel Johnson

GBP/EUR moves towards a 5-month high on hopes of a Brexit deal being announced soon

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Yesterday the Pound to Euro rate breached 1.1450 and this morning the pair remain north of this level, which is one of the highest levels the pair have reached in the last 5-months. You would have to go back to June to see the Pound trading at this level and during that time the pair dipped below the 1.10 mark which goes to show how strong the Pound has been recently.

Over the last three months the Pound has gained almost 3% vs the Euro, with much of these gains being attributable to hopes of the UK and EU negotiators being able to agree on the terms of the Brexit. Despite some relatively impressive economic data and a resilient economy, especially in the face of so much uncertainty, economic data has taken a back seat in recent weeks especially as the Brexit dominates headlines.

There are no major economic data releases due out of the UK until Friday, so between now and then I expect to see the Brexit related updates to continue to be the main driver of currency value. On Friday the data released will be 3rd quarter Gross Domestic Product which holds the potential to influence the markets even if not to the extent Brexit updates can. The UK’s economic performance is being monitored closely as the markets are weary the effect the ongoing uncertainty could have on the UK economy.

One of the most recent updates came yesterday when Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab said yesterdays Brexit meeting should get a thumbs up. The PM’s (Theresa May) Cabinet met yesterday for behind closed doors talks regarding how to resolve the outstanding issues, with the Northern Irish border remaining an area of contention.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W