Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Will the Pound to Euro exchange rate continue to drop?

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In today’s look at “Will the Pound to Euro exchange rate continue to drop?”, I’ll tell you that Sterling has begun to come under some pressure recently. The Pound has lost some value against the majority of major currency pairs over the past few weeks.

When the no-deal Brexit was ruled out, the Pound had been buoyed and hit annual highs against the likes of the Euro. However, since then the positive sentiment surrounding the currency has waned. The Pound has dropped by almost 3 cents versus the Euro, which demonstrates the Pound’s weakness.

Those of our readers following the GBP/EUR pair should also be aware that the current EUR/USD rate is trading around annual lows. This goes to show that the Euro isn’t strong at the moment, but the Pound is softening. Hence, the GBP/EUR price movement.

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast

Sterling hasn’t been helped by the added uncertainty, now that the can has been kicked down the road regarding Brexit. With another 6 months of uncertainty regarding the UK economy, this is likely to have a negative impact on the Pound’s value.

The uncertainty has weighed on the Pound’s value as well as the UK property market. Yesterday it emerged that price growth has dropped to 0.6% year-on-year, which is the lowest growth rate in over 6 years.

With Brexit being pushed back, I think that economic data releases will be followed closely for signs of a slowdown. So if you wish to be updated if there is a major market movement, please feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months, then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate, when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Euro predictions: Brexit extension shorter than expected

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In today’s Euro predictions, we’ll examine how the GBP/EUR rate has slipped to the bottom of its recent trading range, after it was announced that the extension to Article 50 will be shorter than the markets had generally expected.

Last week, EU Commissioner Donald Tusk had outlined plans for a 1-year extension with the flexibility of leaving earlier, providing a deal was in place. It’s reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel was comfortable with this, but French President Emmanuel Macron preferred a shorter extension.

The timeline met in the middle and there will be a 6-month extension with the flexible option. However, the shorter timescale has resulted in a slight weakening of the Pound’s value.

Should I wait to buy Euros?

Sterling has dropped across the board, not dramatically but it’s moved towards the bottom end of recent trading levels. GBP/EUR is now trading below 1.16, having seen some support at this level for a few weeks now. The GBP/EUR rate has now dropped by over 2 cents from its annual high, when the rate hit 1.18 for a brief moment.

However, despite this drop the pair remain closer to the annual high than low, after the pair hit 1.09 back in January, when the concerns of a no-deal Brexit were higher. Hopefully, this gives our clients and readers an idea of where they stand overall, should they have an upcoming currency exchange to make.

Brexit talks are now likely to remain the key driver of GBP/EUR values moving forward, and talks between UK Prime Minister May and the leader of the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, are likely to continue to hit headlines, as they could result in a breakthrough.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Sterling Euro forecast: EZ manufacturing shows contraction

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For today’s Sterling Euro forecast, we’ll examine how the Euro took a hit yesterday, following weak manufacturing data. There was a large contraction, which won’t help investor confidence. We witnessed figures of 47.5, and anything below 50 indicates a contraction. Falls were seen in several key countries, such as Italy, France and Germany.

The engine room of the bloc, Germany, took a particularly large hit, with a fall to 44.1. This is a 6-year low, dragging down the rest of the Eurozone’s manufacturing output.

The European Commission had predicted an increase in growth for Italy of +0.2% this year. This is complete opposite of the prediction from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), who are predicting a fall of -0.2%. This highlights how uncertain growth in Italy will be this year, which will be a cause for concern amongst investors.

It is not all doom and gloom, however. There has been a slight improvement in Chinese manufacturing data, which is good news for the global economy. China is remaining stable on the growth front, while the Eurozone outlook is looking worse, which could result in Euro weakness. The bloc seems to be bearing the brunt of the global slowdown, with Brexit also weighing on the common currency.

ECB set to add stimulus

Eurozone unemployment held firm in March at 7.8%, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) data fell to 1.4%, going against the general consensus. Inflation is still some way from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2%. The pressure is now on the ECB to try and stabilise the Eurozone economy, what with weak growth and low inflation.

The ECB, which has pumped around €2.6 trillion in bond purchases into the struggling economy, recently ceased Quantitative Easing (QE) in December. The ECB has stated that it will delay plans to normalise monetary policy and increase interest rates.

Euro rate prediction

It has been reported that the ECB will offer more cheap loans, in an attempt to boost economic activity. This is not a good sign that the economy is coping well without QE. This situation has the potential to weaken the Euro

Brexit will continue to be the key driver on GBP/EUR and, unfortunately, the situation remains in limbo. I think the likely outcome will be a lengthy extension, which I think would keep GBP/EUR at current buoyant levels. Or there might be a small increase in GBP value, as we take a rushed, botched deal off the table.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade, I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 19 years, Foreign Currency Direct Plc.

We are a no-risk entity, as we do not speculate on the market, and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider, take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident that I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Daniel Johnson

Euro forecast: Will ‘meaningful vote 3’ be confirmed today?

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In today’s Euro forecast, the focus will continue to be the Brexit discussions in the House of Commons. This is because, although today was the previously-expected official Brexit departure date, the details of the UK’s divorce from the European Union are yet to be finalised.

The extension is expected to last for at least 2 weeks, up until the 12th of April. The EU has previously warned that if a deal isn’t in place by then, there will be no scope for further extensions. So, Parliament will be keen to try and rectify the matter as soon as possible.

The discussions today will surround Prime Minister Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement and also alternative options, I would imagine. This is because, earlier this week, indicative votes on alternative arrangements failed to result in a clearly favoured option.

When to buy Euros

The biggest influence on GBP exchange rates at the moment remains this subject. This has been the case for much of the last 2-3 years. If May’s deal is voted in favour of, there will be an extension to the 22nd of May. So, it’s worth following today’s events in Westminster. If there is another confirmed vote on May’s deal then that would be the third, so perhaps it will be third time lucky for her.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate, when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So, for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

GBP/EUR rate climbs after EU opens door for Brexit extension

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The Pound has staged a minor comeback this morning, as it has hit 1.1607 at its highest level. This is after a sell-off of the Pound’s value yesterday, that saw the GBP/EUR rate drop into the 1.14s for the first time in almost a month.

Late last night, European Council President Donald Tusk announced that all 27 European Union leaders have agreed to extend Article 50, as requested by UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

However, the length of the extension will depend on whether or not MPs vote in favour of May’s Brexit deal. So, despite the chances of a no-deal Brexit decreasing, there is still plenty of uncertainty. This is likely to impact the Pound’s value, moving forward.

As it stands, if MPs vote in favour of May’s deal, the extension will run from March 29th until May 22nd. If May’s deal is rejected for a third time, the extension to Article 50 will only run until April 12th. This will leave MPs with the choice of a no-deal Brexit or a much longer extension.

The latter could perhaps be favoured by the markets. This is because, although they generally dislike Brexit and uncertainty, I think that the longer option would perhaps include another referendum on the matter.

Up until now, the EU leaders have made it clear that they favour another referendum and also avoiding a no-deal departure. I think that, if another referendum is announced, we will see the Pound jump in value.

Pound to Euro forecast next week

Next week could be busy for the GBP/EUR exchange rate. Market volatility has increased in the lead up to March 29th, owing to the uncertainty of the situation. If you wish to be notified if there are major market movements, do feel free to register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months, then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me, Joseph Wright, on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

GBP/EUR Predictions: May to Request Brexit Extension

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GBP/EUR – Although many factors dictate GBP/EUR value, the key driver at present is Brexit. There have been rumours circulating that Brussels may give concessions on the Irish border. This is because the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, has told May that unless changes are made to her current deal, it will not be put before Parliament for a third vote.

If this is the case, I would expect Sterling to rally on Thursday, and potentially break the 22-month high of 1.1805. However, the UK PM has asked for an extension, in a letter sent to the EU Council President, Donald Tusk. This is now the more likely topic to consume time in negotiations. May is expected to ask for an extra three months, bringing the deadline to 30th June.

Yesterday, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said a delay would not be approved “without a good reason”. Barnier urged people to “finalise all preparations” for a ‘no deal’ scenario. He went on: “It is our duty to ask whether this extension would be useful, because an extension will be something which would extend uncertainty, and uncertainty costs.”

Is this just posturing? Or could we now be realistically looking at a ‘no deal’ situation?

Is the Euro going up or down against the Pound?

I still believe the chances of a ‘no deal’ are slim. I would expect Sterling to remain at its current buoyant levels if we are given an extension, while a late deal could push us over 1.20, a key resistance point in the past.

If you are sitting on Euros, waiting for a significant movement in your favour on EUR/GBP, I think you may be betting on a long shot. You are essentially banking on a ‘no deal’. Although the threat is still there, I do not believe either side will allow this to happen. I think if we are facing a ‘no deal’, an extension will be called. If you are sitting on Euros, it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a pending currency transfer, let me know the details of your trade, and I will endeavour to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service, you can trade in the knowledge we are a no-risk entity, as we do not speculate.

Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 18 years and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider, I can perform a comparison within minutes. I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

Euro Rate Forecast: Serious Concerns for the Eurozone Economy

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If you’re looking for Euro predictions, it may interest you to know that the Euro could be in for a tough time, with some major reasons for concern.

Italian Debt

Italian national debt is second only to Greece’s.

Italy’s Finance Minister, Giovanni Tria, believes investor confidence is the biggest problem facing Italy. The third largest economy in the Eurozone has struggled to convince investors that it’s on a sustainable economic path. Since the anti-establishment government came into office in June last year, concerns have risen over Italy’s ability to pay back its debts.

There is concern due to the increase in public spending by the new coalition. Italy’s debt-to-GDP is around 130%.

Tria recently said the following: “I think investor confidence is Italy’s biggest problem. But confidence can be restored. I see a lot of international appreciation for Italy’s industrial system and for our economy. We need to boost our own domestic morale even in the short-term, but I think that our basis is very strong.”

Personally, I disagree with Tria and think Italy’s problems are more deep-seated and will not be easy to rectify.

Last month, the IFO institute released data showing that investor sentiment dropped to its lowest level in four years. Out of the eight countries that were analysed within the bloc, Italy had the weakest level of economic climate.

Italy officially fell into recession last month. This situation could have the potential to cause substantial Euro weakness, should the situation escalate.

Germany could face vehicle tariff. Will this cause Euro weakness?

There is further reasoning why the Euro could face a difficult period. Germany just narrowly avoided recession and, as the engine room of the bloc, this is a serious concern. There are threats from the US to put a substantial tariff on the automotive industry. This would hit the German economy hard and in turn the Euro.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has also recently ceased Quantitative Easing (QE), which is essentially pumping money into an economy to stimulate growth. At one point this was as much as €80 million in monthly increments. Recent data has been very poor and, without the support of QE, they could get worse.

Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB, spoke yesterday following the interest rate decision, which remains at 0%. He said that interest rates would be kept on hold until 2020. He also stated there would be a series of low interest loans to stimulate growth and boost investor confidence.

Growth and inflation forecasts were dropped, with growth predictions dropped from 1.7% to 1.1%

Buying Euros? Impact of Brexit

Despite this negative forecast for the Euro, if you have a trade on GBP/EUR, Brexit will remain the key driver. The probability of a no deal Brexit has substantially fallen and Brussels seems to be making small concessions on the Irish border. This could result in an 11th hour deal or more likely an extension, both of which should result in Sterling strength.

During such unpredictable times, you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer, let me know the details of your trade and I will endeavour to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs.

If you already use a provider, I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

Euro Rate Forecast : Euro Faces Fresh Challenges Ahead

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Welcome to our latest Euro rate forecast. The Euro faces fresh challenges ahead, as the market has to grapple with a number of important economic and political uncertainties.

The currency markets are moved through a number of factors, but two principal concerns are always politics and economics. At present, there is an abundance of the two to make life very interesting for anybody looking to make a Euro exchange.

Political concerns are sweeping across the Eurozone bloc, with no country seemingly unaffected. Some countries are attracting more attention than others, notably France and Italy. A rising tide of anti-globalisation and anti-integration has influenced mainstream politics in the Eurozone, and this is weighing on economic sentiment for the bloc.

Euro rate prediction: Eurozone elections may weigh

Investors are loosely eyeing up the European elections in May, which could see further evidence of this shift in perceptions. The shift in the political outlook reflects an increasing mistrust of the existing order. The recent strength of the Euro is now being threatened by these changes in the political makeup, as investors are concerned over just what lies ahead for the economy of the Eurozone.

On the subject of the economy, investors are grappling with the longer term outlook. At Christmas, a very confident European Central Bank indicated that they would be looking to raise interest rates in the future, whilst they were also looking to reduce their QE (Quantitative Easing) plan.

This helped the Euro to rise, but there’s been recent news that Italy is in a technical recession, while Germany narrowly avoided one. Also, there could be further trouble ahead if US President Donald Trump slaps tariffs on European automotive industries. This has all marked a shift in the economic viewpoint.

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast

The Euro is understandably weaker on these concerns. The next ECB meeting on the 7th March will be a key point to determine the future behaviour of the Euro. Another factor will also be the upcoming unemployment news which is at the end of this week. It does feel like the Euro could hit some further troubled waters ahead.

The next few weeks are going to be extremely interesting, with a possible final conclusion on Brexit, and unfolding developments in Europe. Thank you for reading and please do contact me if you wish to run through or discuss the markets ahead or our service.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson

Date of meaningful vote changes, will this help boost GBP/EUR rates?

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If you are looking to buy euros be sure to keep an eye on the latest Brexit news. The market has been preparing for the next, and final, meaningful vote on UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal this week.

Expectations had been for a vote on Wednesday, after the 27th of February was originally planned. However, late yesterday May informed journalists that she intends to hold the meaningful vote on her deal by March the 12th. This date would be just 17 days before Brexit, so we could be in for a busy March when it comes to GBP exchange rates.

It’s been an eventful year already when we consider that during January, the GBP/EUR pair fell as low as the 1.09s. Then, it spiked up and hit the highest level in over 18 months, when 1.16 was hit. This range is also the annual range, so we saw the full range of recent trading levels for the whole year during January. This makes the timing of Sterling transfer key.

Pound to Euro forecast this week

This week could now be quieter than originally expected. That said, it’s worth keeping an eye on the markets, or asking us to do this on your behalf. This is because any major announcements from the EU-Arab League summit in Egypt could result in movement for the Pound. However, I don’t expect Brexit to be a major topic.

GBP/EUR rates remain north of 1.15 and, if it looks like May could be successful in her vote, there’s a chance we could see GBP climb between now and the date of the vote. The vote will likely be on the 12th of March now.

Economic data due out of the UK this week is thin, so I expect the Brexit-related updates to remain the main driver of Sterling value. If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So, for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Could next week’s Brexit vote boost the Pound vs Euro rate?

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In today’s Pound vs Euro rate news, we’ll look at how we’re just 5-weeks from the scheduled Brexit date, with negotiations between the UK and EU beginning to heat up.

Talks have been ongoing this week between UK Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. During this time we’ve seen the Pound climb in anticipation.

Yesterday, the GBP/EUR pair breached 1.15 once again, with the highest level hitting around 1.1538 early in the day. May has confirmed via social media that progress has been made. She’s underlined the need for the UK to see legally binding changes to the Irish back stop that ensure it cannot be indefinite.

It was the issues surrounding the Irish border, and how Northern Ireland will be treated once the UK leaves, that resulted in Theresa May’s Brexit deal being voted against in record numbers.

There is another meaningful vote on her deal scheduled for the 27th of February. However whether this will still take place remains to be seen, as the previous vote was delayed. So I wouldn’t rule out another delay.

This vote is likely to be one of the main drivers of currency movement for the Pound over the next few weeks. If you wish to be updated if there are any major market movements, do feel free to register your interest with me.

Sterling has dropped off this morning after some unenthusiastic comments from Juncker. That said, GBP/EUR remains just below 1.15. This isn’t far from the highest levels of the year (1.1602), which still reflects a positive sentiment from the markets.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate, when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So, for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Sterling Euro forecast: Eurozone growth lowest since 2014

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In today’s Sterling Euro forecast, we’ll look at how, if it were not for Brexit, I think the Pound could be making gains against the Euro. I am of the opinion that the Euro could be in for a rough 2019.

The situation with Greece has seemingly been swept under the carpet. Meanwhile, Italy has entered into a recession and is second only to Greece on national debt. Germany is the engine room of the Eurozone and has only just avoided recession.

Also, there is concern regarding the increase in support for right-wing parties in France and Germany. This has the potential to cause political uncertainty and in turn weaken the Euro.

In addition, the situation with US trade should be noted. The Trump administration has made some serious threats including a potential huge tariff on vehicles. This would hit Germany hard due to it’s heavy reliance on vehicle exports.

Let us also look at Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is a controversial monetary policy in which a central bank purchases securities in order to lower interest rates and boost money supply. It has been used on several occasions around the globe, delivering mixed results.

It will be interesting to see how the Eurozone copes without it. The European Central Bank (ECB) put an end to QE in December. It was at one stage up to €80 million in monthly increments.

ECB President, Mario Draghi, has said in the past that QE was working. However, current figures show that the bloc is experiencing the lowest levels of growth since 2014. It will be interesting to see how the Eurozone will deal with the above issues, without the aid of QE.

Is the Pound going up or down against the Euro?

Despite the fragility of the Pound, I think later in the year we could see some gains for Sterling following Article 50.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place, drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 18 years and FCA authorised.

If you would like my help, feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Daniel Johnson

Is the Eurozone facing a Recession? (Daniel Johnson)

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Draghi blames drop in growth on global economic slowdown

Economic growth in the Eurozone has now slowed to its lowest point since 2014. Purchase manager index forecasts do not make pleasant reading either which points toward further falls in business activity in 2019.Forecasts suggests growth has the potential to drop below 1.5%.

The President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi has played down talks of a recession blaming the economic downturn on exterior factors such as  trade wars and a global economic slowdown. When recently questioned about the fall in GDP he said the following “the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility”.

He has attempted to ease investor concerns by stating the chance of a recession within the bloc is low and the labour market is the strongest it has been in years. Eurozone unemployment currently stands at 7.9% the lowest in over a decade.

I do not share his optimism. There is still the problems in Greece which is seemingly being swept under the carpet, Italian debt is now second only to Greece and the engine room of the Eurozone, Germany has just narrowly avoided a recession.

It is also yet to be seen how the Eurozone will cope without Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. Monthly increments were at one point above €60mln, with the ECB putting an end to QE in December it will be interesting to see how the bloc will cope with growth at such a low level already.

If it were not for Brexit I think Sterling could be making impressive gains against the Euro. Looking at GBP/EUR in detail the fragility of the pound is again being displayed , dropping form an 18 month high of 1.1602 to the low 1.14s today. I am afraid Theresa May could have a very tough time getting any concessions from Brussels. Jean Claude Junker, European Commission President has stated on serval occasions there will be no changes made to the current Brexit deal and with Morgan Stanley suggesting there is less than a 5% of a no deal scenario May has no ammunition in talks.

I think we could see further losses for Sterling despite the problems in the Eurozone.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.
If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you

Daniel Johnson