Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

GBP/EUR drops as the chances of a no-deal Brexit increase, where to next for the pair?

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The Pound to Euro exchange rate dropped yesterday to almost the lowest levels in the past year, as the chances of a no-deal Brexit appear to be increasing. The UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May yesterday announced that she’s postponing the vote on her deal within parliament after previous saying that it would be taking place later today, and since then we’ve seen the Pound continue to drop in value touching new annual lows.

When compared with the US Dollar, the Pound has dropped to its lowest level in 20-months and as previously mentioned, the GBP/EUR rate is close to its annual low which is just below 1.10. During Theresa May’s announcement yesterday she stated that she will be travelling to Berlin to seek assurances regarding the Northern Irish back-stop where she will meet a number of EU leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The hope for Downing Street is that some European leaders, especially Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, will be willing to agree changes to the current Brexit deal which will guarantee to avoid a hard border within the Irish sea. The Irish back stop agreement has so far been the biggest sticking issue and its resulted in the DUP party (the Northern Irish party that props up May’s Conservatives) refusing to support May’s Brexit plan. May decided to postpone the vote because of the lack of support she would receive and Sterling has come under pressure since although some positive economic data from the UK this morning and offered the Pound some support at least for now.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement for the GBP/EUR pair, do feel free to register your interest with us.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

Could this week’s Brexit updates and Commons debates cause movement for the GBP/EUR pair?

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After a disappointing day for UK Prime Minister, Theresa May yesterday the markets are awaiting another key Brexit related release at 11.30am this morning. Yesterday May suffered three parliamentary defeats in just one day, as MP’s look to gain more control of the Brexit process.

Yesterday’s parliamentary debate didn’t start until late in the evening as much of day was taken up by discussions surrounding whether or not the Government must publish the full legal advice it received regarding Brexit. It turns out they do and the report will be released at 11.30am this morning which the markets anticipate and there will also be another debate held in parliament spearheaded by a member of May’s Cabinet. This is expected to start this afternoon and there will be another 3 days of debates in the lead up to next week’s key vote on the deal next Tuesday.

Keeping on top of the data releases and Brexit updates is of course very difficult at the moment as the pressure ramps up on May and her controversial  Brexit plan. Some political commentators are suggesting May could even resign next week although personally I don’t think she will. If she does I think there would be a drop in the Pound’s value owing to the uncertainty this would create close to the expected Brexit date at the end of next March.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement for the Pound, do feel free to register your interest. At 12pm today May will be facing questions from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn at PMQ’s. The Chancellor of Exchequer, Philip Hammond will be speaking at 1pm to give evidence to the Commons Treasury committee about Brexit, and at 1pm Sajid Javid will be the Cabinet member holding today’s Commons Brexit debate.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Will the Euro weaken further in December?

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The Euro has been under pressure after a weekend that saw rioting in Paris and a far-right party gain power in Adalusia, Spain. Political concerns across the Eurozone are being closely monitored, following the gap in political dominance, following the steps taken back by Angela Merkel. With concerns growing about the future direction of politics within the Eurozone, there are questions over to what extent this will affect the Euro.

The Vox party gained support with 12 seats being won out of a total of 109. This is indicative of the general trend in Europe to reject the established order of centrist and socialist powers, with governments becoming more and more right wing and extreme. Such a direction is concerning for financial markets since it could be a trigger for a fracturing of the existing order and lead to less economic cooperation between the Eurozone countries.

In France, Macron is struggling to get a grip on the protests that have now turned to riots over an unpopular fuel tax. The growth of support in far-right and far-left governments could easily destabilise the Euro and markets will now closely follow just how this story pans out. Macron had gained power on a promise to be able to tackle such groups but he is now facing calls to resign, over his mishandling of the issue.

The Euro has a tough month ahead with the latest news from the ECB, European Central Bank next week. The ECB has been promising to withdraw their QE plans but many suspect they might need to look at more accommodative measures to keep their economic recovery  on track. Clients with a position buying or selling Euros should be very aware of a potentially very volatile period ahead as the market tries to second guess the ECB.

December and 2019 could well see some new pockets of uncertainty owing to political concerns which would put further pressure on the ECB, who have a history of being overly optimistic with their designs on monetary policy.

Thank you for reading and if you wish to discuss further the movements on the Euro and how it might influence your transactions, please do contact me Jonathan Watson to discuss further.

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson

Pound to Euro rate tests 1.13 once again, could today’s key releases result in fluctuations for the pair?

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The Pound’s general direction has reversed this morning with GBP exchange rates up across the board of major currency pairs. Yesterday we saw Sterling come under pressure as UK Prime Minister May’s Brexit plan continues to come under scrutiny. At the same time US President Donald Trump suggested the deal looks great for the EU but not so much for the UK and questioned whether the US and UK would be able to strike deals once Brexit takes place.

This morning sentiment appears to have improved, and I believe that this is because there are media reports suggesting the Government will allow amendments to May’s Brexit plan to be put forward by MP’s ahead of the key vote next month.

Next month on the 11th of December there will be a meaningful vote on the withdrawal agreement and I think the Pound is likely to come under pressure between now and then owing to the uncertainty regarding the deals support. Two days prior to the vote there is talk of a televised debate involving Theresa May which could also be a potential market mover depending on how well she performs during the debate, as it could determine the support she receives.

On the Euro side there does appear to be some progress regarding the ongoing saga of the Italian Budget. The coalition government would like to spend more domestically than the EU is prepared to allow and this has been a drag on the Euros value for a while now. Should the matter get resolved I’m expecting to see the Euro strengthen as its been putting strain on Italy’s relationship with the European Union.

Later today at 4.30pm the Bank of England’s Brexit scenario analysis will be released and this will cover the withdrawal agreement. A Financial Stability along with stress tests on major banks will also be released so those of our readers following GBP exchange rates should be aware of this. You can also register your interest with us if you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

Brexit Deal could be agreed imminently (Daniel Johnson)

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 Brexit – Are we on the cusp of a deal?

GBP/EUR remains dominated by Brexit developments. 1.15 has been a resistance point for 18 months and seems to be still holding despite yesterday’s positive news. The reason for the spike in pound value is due to the speculation that a Brexit deal could be imminent. There is a cabinet meeting at 2pm where Theresa May is expected to outline a draft agreement for Brexit, If approved without any resignations there is the distinct possibility of an EU summit late in November.(23rd-25th is rumoured)

The view is that this will result in a formal deal between Westminster and Brussels. If this does occur expect Sterling to rally.

Do not think a deal  is now a foregone conclusion, the deal is far from agreed and it is also important to remember that the deal will also have to be voted through by the cabinet in December/January which will be no easy task. With so much in house fighting and Boris’ thinly veiled ruse to oust Theresa May this could well be a stumbling point.

The market continues to sit around 1.15 despite this news, the markets don’t lie and investors are not convinced the deal is done. Every time 1.15 is breached the market retracts. If you have a requirement buying Euros you are currently at the peak of the market. I would consider doing a tranche of my trade at current levels for safety. Euro sellers trade now. Pre-Brexit GBP/EUR was 1.42, selling at 1.15 is still well below the historical average. I think weighing up risk vs reward I would take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

 

 

Daniel Johnson

GBP/EUR moves towards a 5-month high on hopes of a Brexit deal being announced soon

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Yesterday the Pound to Euro rate breached 1.1450 and this morning the pair remain north of this level, which is one of the highest levels the pair have reached in the last 5-months. You would have to go back to June to see the Pound trading at this level and during that time the pair dipped below the 1.10 mark which goes to show how strong the Pound has been recently.

Over the last three months the Pound has gained almost 3% vs the Euro, with much of these gains being attributable to hopes of the UK and EU negotiators being able to agree on the terms of the Brexit. Despite some relatively impressive economic data and a resilient economy, especially in the face of so much uncertainty, economic data has taken a back seat in recent weeks especially as the Brexit dominates headlines.

There are no major economic data releases due out of the UK until Friday, so between now and then I expect to see the Brexit related updates to continue to be the main driver of currency value. On Friday the data released will be 3rd quarter Gross Domestic Product which holds the potential to influence the markets even if not to the extent Brexit updates can. The UK’s economic performance is being monitored closely as the markets are weary the effect the ongoing uncertainty could have on the UK economy.

One of the most recent updates came yesterday when Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab said yesterdays Brexit meeting should get a thumbs up. The PM’s (Theresa May) Cabinet met yesterday for behind closed doors talks regarding how to resolve the outstanding issues, with the Northern Irish border remaining an area of contention.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

GBP/EUR remains flat as markets await Brexit updates

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After a strong day for GBP exchange rates yesterday, the Pound is trading flat against the Euro whereas its actually lost much of yesterday’s gains already against the major currency pairs.

The reason for the spike yesterday can be attributed to reports out of Ireland that the European Union will offer UK Prime Minister, Theresa May a UK wide customs union which will be a way around the issues surrounding the Northern Ireland border. Some of the shine was taken off of the news though as this arrangement will be treated as a separate treaty. It is progress though after the recent talk of a hard border in the Irish sea whereby Northern Ireland would be treated separately to the rest of the UK, as this is where talks last week stalled.

The GBP/EUR rate is now trading within tight margins and the pair are mostly influenced by Brexit related news, especially now that the UK will be leaving in less than 5-months.

The Euro has got off to bad start today after the ongoing Italian Budget issues remain. Yesterday it emerged that the EU has rejected the Italian governments proposal of 2.4% of GDP for their spending Budget. The Italian government has been at loggerheads with the EU for weeks now regarding this matter, and the EU appears unlikely to budge in their demands. As Italy is the third largest economy within the EU I expect to see this topic influence the GBP/EUR rate until its addresses, and any strains on the Italian and EU relationship could have the scope to impact exchange rates.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

How much further will the Euro weaken?

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The Euro has been weakening as concerns mount over Italian debt levels which saw bond yields on Italy’s government debt jump to levels not seen since 2014. With the current yield (return) on the debt at 3.7% at its highest this week, the Euro has weakened quite dramatically which has caused a weakness on the Euro.

The yield is essentially the return investors will get for investing in the debt and the riskier it is, the higher the price that this will rise. Any move above 4% would likely spark fears over other Eurozone economies, a report in the Financial Times today suggests that this level could be a ‘tipping point’ for other concerns.

As a mark of just how far the concerns have come, we have seen this yield rise from below 2% when the new coalition took power in May. This is quite a dramatic turnaround in a short space of time and helps explain why the Euro has been sold off and what troubles could lie ahead in the future.

Economic issues will also take precedence as we get closer to the 25th October, this is the next ECB, European Central Bank, meeting where we will learn of some of the latest news relating to their economic plans. The Euro might well come under some further pressures in the weeks ahead because of this, it might be that the Italian issues force the ECB to scale back some of their plans.

Political concerns in the Eurozone are also around owing to some of the issues remaining in Spain. Expectations for the Euro are likely to remain troubled in the weeks ahead and this might well put more pressure on the single currency.

If you are looking to buy or sell the Euro then we have some very interesting developments ahead for the Euro, as well as its counterpart currencies. An example would be GBPEUR where Brexit appears to be taking shape which has helped the pound to a 3-month high against the Euro. And against the US dollar, continued US confidence over higher interest rates has seen EURUSD fall to 2 month lows.

If you have a position buying or selling Euros and wish for some information on the best timing and strategies to help maximise any currency position, please do contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and discussing this most interesting of currency markets soon.

 

 

 

Jonathan Watson

Brexit talks key to GBP/EUR value (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – GBP/EUR will largely be dictated by Brexit. Investors are still reluctant to purchase the pound due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit. While there is still the prospect of a “no deal” I feel the pound will have difficulty making any significant gains.

The key points of contention are the Irish border and access to the customs union. If their is clarity provided on either of these matters I would expect Sterling make significant gains. Sterling is chronically undervalued considering pre-Brexit GBP/EUR sat above 1.42.

I expect volatility as talks intensify with both sides pulling out all of their ammunition in an attempt to get the best deal for their respective sides. I think the EU are making things particularity difficult, not only for monetary gain, but also to warn off other EU members leaving. A domino effect could cause the EU to collapse.

If you are sitting on Euros I would take advantage of current levels, despite the posturing I feel a deal will be put in place. I do not think it will be before the 18th October deadline, it is an open kept secret that there will be an emergency summit in mid November to get a deal in place.

I think there is potential to achieve better levels for Euro sellers between now and a deal being agreed, but looking at risk vs reward I would not be gambling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and  I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am  sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

 

Daniel Johnson

Pound to Euro rate breaches 1.12, is a move up to 1.13 now on the cards?

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The Sterling to Euro exchange rate has breached the 1.12 level today, recouping much of the losses from last week on Friday. The sell-off last week was triggered by UK Prime Minister, Theresa May when she held firm in her plans for Brexit and suggested that the EU would need to put forward some ideas.

With the UK ‘s and the EU’s negotiators now at loggerheads regarding the Brexit deal, many are expecting to see the Pound fall but at the moment its defying expectations, with the pound climbing against all major currency pairs today. The currency is actually best best performer over the past 24-hours.

The gains today are being attributed to talk of the EU being prepared to make a ‘special case’ regarding the Northern Irish border. This matter has been a key talking point for some time but the topic is surfacing more often now that the UK’s divorce from the EU is closing in. Much of the price movement for the pound is being driven by Brexit related news as well as politics in the UK and in Europe. Despite this, the Pound did gain in value somewhat after comments from the Bank of England this week. Gertjan Vlieghe of the BoE commented that he expects to see 1-2 interest rate hikes from the BoE on an annual basis, which the next hike coming as soon as August 2019.

GBP/EUR has been trading within thin volumes recently, but I’m expecting to see a major move once the Brexit scenario is clarified.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

What factors are currently influencing the Pound to Euro exchange rate?

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The GBP/EUR exchange rate had a busy day yesterday, as the we saw the pair hit a 2-month high along with seeing a slight sell-off in the afternoon owing to Brexit related updates.

The inflation figure for the UK in August unexpectedly jumped to 2.7% after the markets were expecting to see a figure of 2.4% released. This boosted the Pound’s value as the chances of further interest rate hikes from the Bank of England are supported by this data release, which is considered a GBP positive.

Then in the afternoon after GBP/EUR had hit it’s 2-month high , getting closer to 1.13 at the interbank level we saw much of the earlier gains reversed and was because the UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May rejected the EU’s most recent proposal regarding the Northern Irish border. This matter is becoming a contentious issue that neither side seems prepared to give any ground on, and I expect it to continue to drive the Pound to Euro exchange rate when there are updates.

As of yesterday evening there is a 2-day informal meeting in Salsburg, Austria between the EU members and I expect Brexit to be a talking point. Any updates are likely to result in currency fluctuations so it’s worth being aware of this if you’re planning on making a currency exchange in the short term future.

Later this morning there will be a release of data from the UK in the form of Retail Sales data. Drops from the previous months figures are expected and do get in touch if you wish to be updated regarding this release.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Will the Pound to Euro rate continue to see support at 1.12?

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The Pound to Euro rate has once again bounced off of the 1.12 mark so far today, which is a trend we’ve seen repeatedly this week.

Just yesterday the Bank of England (BoE) voted in favour of keeping interest rates on hold, as did the European Central Bank (ECB) although the pound climbed afterwards after some positive communications regarding wage growth in the UK. Should this area of the economy continue to strengthen I expect further interest rate hikes from the BoE next year, which is perhaps why we saw Sterling climb after the BoE decision.

This morning Sterling is under some pressure which is why 1.12 was tested again between GBP/EUR. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney yesterday warned that if there is no deal in place when the UK leaves the European Union, there could be a house price crash in the UK along with another financial shock through the economy.

Carney met with senior ministers yesterday to discuss the effects of a disorderly exit from the EU, and his prediction of a worst case scenario is a 35% drop in property prices over three years. He has made similar commentaries in the past and the Bank of England is carrying out stress tests in case of a no-deal and also releasing notices aimed at business and the public to prepare them for a no-deal scenario.

Brexit related news is the main mover of Sterling exchange rates at the moment and I expect this to continue especially now that time to agree a deal is running out.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W