Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Buying Euros outlook: Will the Euro weaken ahead?

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The Euro has been facing scrutiny relating to the ongoing developments around monetary policy in the single currency bloc. The Eurozone has been stagnating, with fears that Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, will enter recession this Autumn. This is a scenario expected by even the German central bank, the Bundesbank.

There’s increasing concern over the outlook for the Eurozone, a situation in part influenced by the growing global concern over the USA’s and China’s trade wars. As such, speculation has been rife that the ECB (European Central Bank) will begin some form of ‘easing’ policy measures at its upcoming meeting on the 12th September.

Such ‘easing’ would typically weaken the currency concerned, although there are no guarantees that this will happen. It might be said that some of the recent weakness in the Euro is a result of the above outlined expectations. Moving forward, the meeting may not carry the same weight initially granted to it.

Nevertheless, the upcoming meeting will provide further insight into what the currency market believes lies ahead for the Eurozone economy. In part, this is because the market will learn the latest reports from the ECB policymakers, including President Mario Draghi. With Mr. Draghi’s term ending in October, this will be one of his final meetings and he could be looking to make a name for himself. This is to ensure that he is not leaving with the economic outlook for the single currency bloc in too bad a shape.

Should I buy Euros now or wait?

Mr. Draghi has been credited with “saving the Euro”, following his announcements previously that the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to shore up the Eurozone’s financials. The ECB’s policies of low interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) have seen the Euro losing ground at times. So it will be interesting to see what the outcome from the meeting is.

Any clients looking to buy or sell the Euro might wish to highlight their position to our team in advance. This way, we can provide a detailed assessment of your situation and possible options to help manage your currency exposure. You can contact me, Jonathan Watson, at jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Jonathan Watson

Euro Pound forecast: GBP falls with election speculation

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Is the Euro going to go up? UK general election likelier

UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson has stated that he doesn’t want a general election, but that doesn’t mean we won’t get one. Members of Parliament (MPs) are planning to put through legislation this evening, to force the PM to delay Brexit until 31st January, unless he can get a new deal in place with the European Union by mid-October.

The PM will try to trigger a snap election on Oct. 14 if he loses the vote in Parliament. There is now a high probability of a general election before the end of the year. This does not bode well for the Pound. If we look historically, the Pound tends to suffer during general elections, for example the 2010 election bares testament to this.

The chances of Mr. Johnson obtaining a favourable deal also seems slim. Brussels has reiterated that there will be no concessions made on the Northern Irish border. Generally speaking, the higher the probability of a ‘no deal’, the weaker you would expect the Pound to become.

When should I buy Euros? ECB looks set to cut interest rates

The Eurozone has its own problems. Low inflation may force the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hand, and they may either put interest rates into negative territory or implement further Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate economic growth. The drawback is that this puts a huge amount of debt on the region in question. You would expect both these monetary policy options to weaken the Euro.

However, it is likely that the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit will considerably outweigh the problems in the Eurozone. GBP/EUR has lost nearly a cent overnight, and yet the Euro is close to a two-year low against the US Dollar. This highlights how fragile the Pound actually is.

During unpredictable times, you may wish to be in contact with a currency specialist who can provide the latest currency updates. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has specialised in foreign exchange for over 19 years, and we are authorised as an e-money institution by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

If you already use a provider, I can perform a comparison within minutes, to give you an indication of the potential saving you could make by using Foreign Currency Direct for your international currency transfers. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk, Daniel Johnson, if you would like my assistance.

Daniel Johnson

Euro predictions: Boris dismisses Parliament

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Pound Euro Forecast

There has been a strange reaction on GBP/EUR following the news that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has approval from the Queen to dismiss Parliament from 9th September to 14th October. This is an attempt to stop Parliament from blocking a ‘No Deal’ scenario from occurring.

Generally speaking, you would expect Sterling to weaken with the increased probability of a no deal. However, in this circumstance it could be considered that the break in parliament could force Brussel’s hand to give the UK a more favourable deal, knowing that the threat of a ‘No Deal’ is real.

We saw GBP/EUR hit a monthly high of 1.1080 during yesterday’s trading, only for it to fall to the high 1.09s, following the announcement of Boris dismissing Parliament. Sterling then recovered later during the trading day into the mid 1.10s.

The threat of a ‘No Deal’ is still real and the Pound will remain fragile until we have some form of clarity on Brexit. I am not convinced that Brussels will be willing to make concessions on the current deal. It is not in Brussel’s favour to let the UK leave with a favourable deal. If the UK were to leave with a favourable deal, what is there to stop other members of the bloc following suit?

Is the Euro going up or down against the Pound?

Italy, with huge debt now in excess of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) could be a country that would like to leave the EU. They have also been threatened by the EU with a huge fine, should Italy not make necessary arrangements to bring the debt into line. It could be the case that Brussels is making Brexit as difficult as possible, in order to avoid a domino effect.

During unpredictable times you may wish to be in contact with a currency specialist, who can provide the latest currency updates. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has specialised in foreign exchange for over 19 years and we are authorised as an e-money institution by the FCA.

If you already use a provider, I can perform a comparison within minutes, to give you an indication of the potential saving you could make by using Foreign Currency Direct for your international currency transfers. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk, Daniel Johnson.

Daniel Johnson

Buy Euros latest: GBP rises after comments from EU leaders

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The Pound to Euro exchange rate broke above 1.10 yesterday afternoon for the first time this month, as the pair has been lodged below this key trading level since the end of July. The reason behind the boost to the Pound’s value is due to the outcome of the meetings between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Angela Merkel has challenged Boris Johnson and his government to come up with new ideas for the Northern Irish backstop. This is a promising sign as, previously, EU leaders have suggested that there is no scope for amendments to the arrangements put in place by Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May. Sterling has been under considerable pressure recently as the chances of a no-deal Brexit have increased, since Boris Johnson took on the role of Prime Minister.

As there are no key economic data updates today due out of the UK or the EU, I expect the political situation to remain the key driver of currency values. At the time of writing, the GBP/EUR rate remains just north of 1.10, after hitting highs of around 1.1060-1.1070 yesterday afternoon.

Euro forecast for next week

At the weekend the G7 meeting will take place, and also Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, will be speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium. I think this is another area to watch, as there could be currency movement off the back of any comments alluding to future monetary policy plans.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference, so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Euro Pound forecast: Italian PM resigns

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The Euro lost value during yesterday’s trading following the resignation of Italian Prime Minister (PM), Giuseppe Conte. He stated following his departure that he felt Matteo Salvini, his Deputy Prime Minister, was a political opportunist and had engineered this outcome.

It could be the case that Mr. Salvini is lining himself up to be the next PM. The next course of action however will be determined by Italian President, Sergio Mattarella. It could be the case that he asks Mr. Conte to form a new government or call for an election. General elections historically weaken the currency in question and this situation could hurt the Euro.

Should I wait to buy Euros?

The Euro has other problems and has lost value against the majority of major currencies. Eurozone inflation levels have been very poor for several years now, and this situation worsened this week as Consumer Price Index (CPI) data (a measure of inflation) came in below expectations. The figures arrived at –0.5% against a forecast of –0.4%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has hinted at changing monetary policy. There could either be a change in interest rates, which would put the interest rate to a minus figure, or monetary stimulus such as Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth, the drawback is this creates a huge level of debt. Both of these options have the potential to weaken the Euro. At the moment, however, I believe the current Brexit situation outweighs the problems in the Eurozone.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place, drop me an email with what you are being offered. I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 19 years and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Daniel Johnson

Euro exchange rate forecast: Salvini calls for snap election

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Italy’s political uncertainty a threat to Euro’s value

In today’s Euro exchange rate forecast, we’ll look at how Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’s League party has called for a snap election. This does not look like good news for the Euro. The League party is one half of a coalition with the anti-establishment Five Star movement, and Mr. Salvini has said the coalition is unworkable.

The two parties have clashed over several issues. However, the current talks over a high-speed railway between Turin and Lyon have resulted in fierce words between the two parties. Five Star strongly oppose the railway, due to its environmental impact and cost.

Italy currently has extremely high levels of debt, higher than its GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Brussels has threatened to impose a €3 billion fine, if there is not a real attempt by the Italian government to show a solid plan of repayment.

This has the potential to cause further strain on the relationship between Brussels and Rome, and has the clout to influence the value of the Euro. However, despite the situation with the Eurozone, it seems to be still outweighed by Britain’s problems surrounding Brexit. The Euro is close to a two year low against the US Dollar, yet still continues to make gains against Sterling.

Should I buy Euros now or wait? Eurozone GDP

Eurozone GDP is due out tomorrow and could cause volatility. This is expected to show little movement in quarter-on-quarter data, it is set to arrive the same as the last quarter at 1.1%. Germany’s GDP data is due out too, and it may be the case that there is a fall. Germany’s economic growth is predicted to drop to – 0.1% in Q2 from 0.4% in Q1. As Germany is the engine room of the bloc, this does have the power to weaken the Euro.

If you have a currency requirement, I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return, it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade, I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place, I am willing to perform a live comparison. I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety, knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 18 years. Our accounts are published online at Companies House and we are FCA registered. If you would like my help, I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk, Daniel Johnson. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

Euro forecast: Will GBP fall further as Brexit fears grow?

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In this Euro forecast we’ll examine how, earlier this week, the Pound to Euro exchange rate hit a new 23-month low. This was brought on by fears regarding the increasing chances of a no-deal Brexit in just a few months.

Since the appointment of Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister, the no-deal rhetoric has rattled the markets. So Sterling continues to fall across the board of major currency pairs. The Euro has benefited from this weakness and the pair has hit the lowest level in almost 2 years.

Despite a slight boost for GBP exchange rates yesterday, owing to the light economic calendar, those gains have since been wiped out. This is because, late yesterday afternoon, Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said that the risk of a no-deal Brexit is increasing.

Is the Euro going to go up?

The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on the 31st of October. So if no progress is made between the UK and the EU negotiating teams, and the EU continues to refuse to amend the existing EU deal, there could be further falls for the GBP/EUR rate. Do feel free to register your interest, if you wish to be kept updated regarding any price changes.

Economic data due out this week is mostly light until Friday, when UK GDP will be released. This will cover the UK’s economic output during the second quarter of this year.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months, then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me, Joseph Wright, on jxw@currencies.co.uk. I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Best time to buy Euros: Pound to Euro rate breaks 1.12

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If you’re looking for the best time to buy Euros, you may like to know that, during today’s trading session, the Pound to Euro exchange rate has managed to remain north of the 1.12 level that it’s breached over the past 2 trading days. Sterling exchange rates are opening up relatively flat, owing to a lack of economic updates this week out of the UK.

Politically updates remain the key driver for GBP exchange rates at the moment. This week Boris Johnson has been appointed the new Prime Minister for the UK. Boris will now get to work regarding his next steps for Brexit, which he believes will take place within the next 98 days as scheduled.

Since the first week of May, when GBP/EUR was trading around its highest levels of the year, the Pound has gradually lost value. This is because the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has increased, due to the change in Prime Minister.

The positive movement for the Pound against the Euro this week isn’t just because of the drop in uncertainty, now we know that Boris Johnson has officially been made Prime Minister. Boris was the favourite, so markets expected this. There’s also Euro weakness, as the markets have been gearing up for today’s European Central Bank meeting.

Is the Euro going up or down against the Pound?

The Eurozone has been showing signs of a slowdown, with inflation levels stubbornly low and a drop in German manufacturing output. This has left some commentators suggesting that there could be further economic stimulus measures on the horizon. Such a move could weaken the Euro, and we could see GBP/EUR gain further as a result.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me, Joseph Wright, on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Euro rate forecast: Will the Euro strengthen?

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In today’s Euro rate forecast, we’ll look at how the Euro has been rising against many currencies, following the news that the Greek elections produced a majority on Sunday.

This has helped restore some confidence in the single currency, which in recent years has been struggling under political pressures. Following the European elections in May, there had been a concern that more extreme parties would gain vote share. However, the Greek election proves that this is not the case.

Political concerns are also strong, with the markets awaiting further news on how we might see plans for any further economic stimulus pan out. The Euro had been weaker, with investors predicting the ECB (European Central Bank) will embark on a further round of QE (Quantitative Easing). This has so far not been the case and is perhaps unlikely immediately, with a change of guard at the helm of the ECB.

Christine Lagarde has now been announced as the new ECB President and will be taking her place from the beginning of November. Ms. Lagarde is respected for her political credentials as much as her economic status, having previously been the Managing Director of the IMF (International Monetary Fund).

Mario Draghi, the current President of the ECB, has laid out a loose plan for the market to become more doveish. There’s the expectation that, in future, the ECB will need to look to make some kind of interest rate cut or further monetary easing, to help stimulate the economy. Sluggish growth in the Eurozone has contributed to falling inflation and rising concerns. Investors may struggle to see the positive steps they need to seriously back the Euro.

Is the Euro going up or down against the Pound?

Looking ahead, the potential for no-deal Brexit, plus the onset of fears relating to lower interest rates, might see the Euro weaker. However, with there being a bit more certainty on a previously uncertain Greek political situation, there might be some more reasons for optimism on the single currency.

Thank you for reading and please do contact me directly to run through or discuss any matters relating to an international money transfer that involves the Euro.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson

Sell Euros update: Will the Pound continue to fall in 2019?

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In today’s look at when to sell Euros, we’ll see how, after a busy few months for the Pound, the currency seems to have settled towards the lower end of its annual trading ranges. Some market commentators expect to see the Pound to lose further value as 2019 progresses.

The recent market movement can be attributed to Brexit updates, which have mostly been negative. Hence, Sterling exchange rates remain towards the lower end of their trading ranges.

According to JP Morgan, we could see the Pound to Euro rate fall a further 3% before the end of the year. This would leave the GBP/EUR pair trading around 1.08, which would be the lowest levels seen since 2017.

Euro forecast next 6 months

Global economies are also showing signs of a slowdown and this, coupled with the Brexit uncertainty, is causing market analysts to predict a rate cut from the Bank of England next year. Over the last year, the lowest the GBP/EUR rate has traded is just below 1.10. So there is now a growing trend from analysts predicting new lows for the pair throughout 2019.

The bearish outlook for GBP/EUR comes at a time when the Euro is also under pressure. With the Eurozone economy failing to show any strong signs, this could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates. For me, this shows the strain the Pound is under, as the Pound is weakening compared to the Euro.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me, Joseph Wright, on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

When to buy Euros? Bank of England could help the Pound rise

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If you’re looking for information about when to buy Euros, it may be help you to know that all eyes will turn to the Bank of England (BoE) at lunchtime today. This is the BoE’s time to discuss interest rates and future monetary policy, after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) had its opportunity yesterday.

Whilst the Fed opted to keep interest rates on hold, it suggested that a rate cut could come as soon as next month. This impacted the US Dollar and equity markets.

We could see a similar occurrence today this time at the BoE. No interest rate amendment is expected, but any suggestions of future rate changes could impact the Pound’s value. There’s plenty of uncertainty surrounding the central bank’s plans at the moment, owing to lack of clarity surrounding Brexit.

This aside, the UK Conservative Party’s leadership contest continues today. International Development Secretary Rory Stewart was eliminated yesterday. Today, the fourth and final round of voting will take place to leave just two members. Once just two remain, there will be a ballot of the 160,000 Conservative Party members to decide the winner, who will then become the Prime Minister.

Best time to buy Euros

I expect the leadership contest to also hold the potential to influence the Pound’s value. However, we may have to wait until there is a shock or we’re in the final stages before the rate is impacted. At the moment, Boris Johnson is the favourite to win, so if this changes the Pound is likely to be influenced.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months, then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me, Joseph Wright, on jxw@currencies.co.uk. I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Buy Euros latest: Italian debt hurts the Euro

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EU set to punish Italy for rising debt

If you plan to buy Euros, it might interest you to know that EU finance ministers have agreed to pursue plans to penalise Italy with a fine to the value of £3 billion. Last week, the ministers confirmed that Italy’s high debt contravenes EU regulations, prompting the European Commission to take steps to punish the Italians.

On top of the ongoing budget dispute, Italy appears more likely to leave the Eurozone than anyone else. This is after a proposal to create mini-BOTs, a parallel currency to run alongside the Euro, which can be used by the Italian government to ease debt. This is a controversial method to say the least.

Matteo Salvini, Italian Deputy Prime Minister, stated that “We don’t need to ask Germans, Spanish and Luxembourgish for money. We want to use Italians’ money for Italians.”

The Euro is suffering due to this situation and investors are watching with a keen eye. This does have the potential to weaken the Euro further against the majority of major currencies. It is close to a two-year low against the US Dollar.

Is the Euro going up?

The Euro has suffered of late due to several contributing factors. The latest is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) June assessment of the Eurozone economic outlook, which was perceived to be worse than expected. This due to global demand issues and slowing domestic economies.

Analysts had predicted that the ECB would change the Eurozone’s interest rates before long.

However, Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, recently suggested that policymakers are now likely to wait for a longer period before raising rates. Mr. Draghi said that the ECB have all the necessary tool’s in the toolbox to deal with upcoming issues. In all honesty, there is very little justification for a hike.

Pound to Euro forecast

The decline of Sterling is widely attributed to the increasing probability of a ‘no deal’ Brexit taking place on October 31st. This follows the failure of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal to pass through Parliament, and her subsequent resignation.

Analysts from Danske Bank have said a combination of weaker domestic data, global risk sentiment and ECB policy will play a part in a softer GBP/EUR exchange rate, going forward. There have been fears that “non-Brexit drivers [will] weaken the GBP further over the summer.”

However, Brexit will remain the key driver on GBP/EUR. I am afraid that, until we have clarity on the UK’s political situation and Brexit, the Pound will remain fragile.

If you have a currency requirement, I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade, I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you.

If you have a trade to perform, I will also happily provide a free quote . I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with an FCA-registered company and one that has been trading for 18 years, Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance, I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk, Daniel Johnson.

Daniel Johnson