Is now is the time to buy Euros? In the last 12 months, I can count on 1 hand the amount of times the mid-market GBP/EUR has broken 1.15.
No surprises, in recent months Brexit uncertainties and the slowing UK economy have frequently forced investors to sell off the Pound. This has often caused the GBP/EUR exchange rate to fall back towards the lower teens.
That said, the reason for the recent surge in sterling’s value is because of the optimism that the UK will secure a deal with the EU, or at least extend Article 50 to avoid crashing out on March 29th.
However, even though decisions have to be made in the next 30 days, this feels like a deja vu moment. The reality is that the Prime Minister has to renegotiate the backstop, as it will not pass in its current form at the end of the month.
If it’s the case that she loses the meaningful vote at the end of the month, then I expect that the current GBP/EUR level of 1.15 will fall. Therefore, for clients that are buying Euros in the short term, buying now seems like the best strategy.
Buy Euros this week?
If you are in the market for buying Euros, I would strongly recommend emailing me with the figures you are looking to purchase. I will respond with live figures. This will take 2 minutes, and could end up saving you a considerable amount of money.
Longer term, the question is: will Theresa May secure a deal? Personally I think she will, however I don’t believe this will happen until the end of the summer. This is because an extension of Article 50 looks the most likely outcome over the next 6 weeks.
Therefore, if you are buying Euros and holding off, expecting the Pound to break multi-year highs, the likelihood is that you are going to be disappointed. I don’t believe Brexit will help you, and recent economic data has declined. This shows that Brexit is weighing down the UK economy.
For more information in regards to how Brexit could impact your currency exchange or for live prices, please email me directly firstname.lastname@example.org. I’ll be delighted to help you.