The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) release their estimate of UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) today which is likely to create volatility for sterling Euro exchange rates to day. This particular data release is seen as a barometer as to the strength of the economy. Although the figures are not the official data from the Office for National Statistics the data is often an excellent precursor to the official data.
As such there can be major market movement for the pound off the back of the data. A stronger projection could help see the pound rally against the Euro although gains are likely to be limited with the ongoing Brexit uncertainty. GBP EUR is currently sitting just below 1.13. Data from the EU is light as we end the week although EU GDP numbers next Tuesday could see an interesting time for the Euro.
The Brexit negotiations have resumed this week and this will continue to be the big driver for the pound. Any progress in the divorce settlement which could open the door to a future trade agreement could see the pound rally although in my view we are likely to be waiting until early in the New Year until headway is potentially made.
UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers are also released today as well as trade balance data which should be monitored closely for a grasp on how well the British economy is actually performing. Next week’s Consumer Price Index inflation data will be particularly interesting to watch considering the Bank of England raised interest rates last week for the first time in a decade as a result of rising inflation.
So far the central bank has made clear that it is looking to raise rates very gently with perhaps just two rates rises over the course of the next two years. If inflation starts to surge and I would highlight how much some dairy products have increased in price in recent months then the pound could find support on the expectation the Bank of England may need to raise rates sooner. Clients buying Euros could see a good jump higher next week.
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