Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Euro suffers at the hands of the ECB!

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has laid down some guidelines as to where economic policy could head in the future and it is not good news for the Euro. Whilst planning on withdrawing the Quantitative Easing (QE) program earlier than expected, the ECB pushed out their interest rate hike expectations further than expected to December 2019.

The market is always eager for clues on when interest rates might rise, this is one of the major driving factors for the currency markets. With the US raising interest rates this week to 2% and the Bank of England also on a path to hike, the Eurozone and the ECB is looking rather behind the curve and the Euro could suffer further as a result.

The Euro has been suffering and any clients looking to buy in the future should be making careful plans around what could ultimately happen, generally speaking the Euro could really find itself under pressure if we see further deviation between what the ECB are doing and the rest of the financial world.

The fact the Euro has not clawed back the losses suffered yesterday, indicates to me that actually it might well lose further ground, particularly if the economic data is not up to scratch. Generally speaking, clients looking to buy or sell the Euro should I feel be making careful plans around the coming weeks to try and help maximise the position.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonny Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

Jonathan Watson

Bearish comments on the UK economy pushes the Pound to Euro rate into the 1.13’s

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Sterling has seen a sell-off in its value this afternoon, after some negative comments from key personnel has pushed the Pound lower across the board of major currency pairs.

Two former Bank of England officials, David Blanchflower and Andrew Sentance have given negative assessments of the UK’s economy at present. The issue surrounding the UK economy at the moment is a lack of productivity growth, as in other major economies such as the US and the Eurozone, Gross Domestic Product (economic output) is increasing at a much faster rate than employment whereas in the UK, it’s stagnant as the figures are running at the same values.

There are also fears that this could get worse if the UK losses highly-skilled personnel as a result of the Brexit and its implications on the UK economy/freedom of movement.

This has come at a time that the Euro is under pressure owing to the political instability surrounding the Italian political situation. Anti-Eu parties in Italy are in the process of forming a coalition government with many expecting to see this take place over the weekend until there was a last minute scuppering of the arrangement by Italian president Sergio Mattarella.

With all that’s going on in the world of politics, do feel free to register your interest with me if you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

Should I buy euros with pounds now?

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With GBPEUR exchange rates performing relatively well in comparison to last year, there is a strong argument to purchase euros now. At present the Euro is under pressure due to Italian politics which is making euro purchases cheaper. Reports are suggesting that anther snap election could take place as early as the end of the summer. The concern for the euro is that the Eurosceptic parties could gain further momentum and therefore try to remove Italy from the euro.

Leader of the League Matteo Salvini, has gone one step further and stated it won’t be an election and in fact another referendum, insinuating if they gain more power and form a government they aim to pull Italy away from Europe.

However we are now one month away from the EU summit and both the UK and EU have made it clear progression needs to be made in regards to Brexit. The main talking point is the customs union and Irish border. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is stuck between a rock and a hard place as she doesn’t want to break up the UK by allowing Northern Ireland to remain part of the customs union but at the same time she doesn’t want a hard border in Ireland. The problem is that she needs to pick one or the other.

Last week Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadker warned the UK and suggested “without the Irish border resolved there can be no withdrawal agreement”. A no deal I don’t believe is an option for Mrs May and in my opinion we would see a snap election before this happened. 

For clients that are buying an asset abroad short term, I can’t see how the June summit is going to help the pounds value, therefore I would look to purchase upfront as soon as possible.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Dayle Littlejohn) on drl@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as soon as I can.

Dayle Littlejohn

Is it worth waiting to buy Euros?

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The Euro has fallen against the US Dollar to its lowest level in 6 months but has remained in a fairly tight range against the Pound.

The US Dollar has improved as the tensions between China and the US in terms of the trade wars appear to be easing. Indeed, GBPUSD rates are also close to their lowest level since December 2017 which highlights that it’s more to do with Dollar strength rather than Euro weakness.

As highlighted in my previous article there are a huge number of economic data releases due out for the UK including Inflation Report Hearings due out in the morning.

Inflation has been a very hot topic for the Bank of England recently and one of their main remits is to keep inflation under control. Therefore, if tomorrow we see that inflation is still too high then this could potentially cause the Pound to improve as this will provide evidence to support an interest rate hike in the UK in the future.

Clearly the Bank of England will not be raising interest rates any time soon after the decision to keep interest rates on hold earlier this month but we could see some support for a future rate hike later this year and this could see GBPEUR rates going in an upwards direction.

However, it is Wednesday that could cause the biggest movement for the Pound vs the Euro as the latest Consumer Price Index is due out for April with predictions for 2.3% so anything higher could see Sterling strength.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying Euros in the near future it may be worth holding out until later on in the week.

If you would like to save money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote.

Having worked in the markets since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound to Euro breaks 1.14 and holds its ground, what factors are likely to influence the rate moving forward?

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It’s been a relatively good day for the Pound against the Euro, with the pair consolidating above the 1.14 mark after struggling to breach it a few times recently.

The Pound hasn’t performed well across the board today, so I think it’s fair to say that the movement is a result of Euro weakness. The Euro is coming under pressure due to political instability in Italy. At the same time central banks are either beginning to hike rates or discussing it at least, whereas there isn’t likely to be a rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) this year based on their comments which is another reason for the Euro falling out of fashion.

To put the Euro weakness into perspective, against the US Dollar the currency has lost almost 4.5% in just the past month.

Although the interest rate hike from the Bank of England didn’t go ahead last week, there are still economists predicting a rate hike later this year which is offering the Pound support.

In regards to the rate I think that there is support at 1.13 in the current market, but it’s going to take some special news to push the pair into new 2018 territory.

There isn’t much economic data out for the remainder of the week that could impact rates, which gives any of our readers planning their transfer next week plenty of time to plan it.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Big day ahead for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have remained relatively flat during today’s trading session in anticipation of a very big day tomorrow with a huge amount of economic data due out both here in the UK and also on the continent.

We start the morning with German GDP and as Germany is the Eurozone’s leading economy this will likely give us an insight into what may happen with Eurozone GDP data at 10am.

However, arguably the more important release will come in between with UK jobs data in the form of both the latest Unemployment rate as well as Average Earnings and both have been very positive in recent months.

UK Unemployment is close to its lowest level on record and with average earnings last month outpacing inflation for the first time in a very long time this was a potential reason to increase interest rates.

Since then the Bank of England have kept interest rates on hold but if the data is strong tomorrow I think this could provide some evidence in support of raising interest rates in the UK.

On Wednesday the Eurozone publishes inflation data which has been very low on the continent for quite some time so another low release could encourage the ECB to continue with their current QE programme.

Overall I think we could see the Pound make some gains during the next two days so if you’re thinking about buying Euros it may be worth keeping a close eye out on what will happen.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

I have worked in the foreign exchange industry for 15 years and I am confident of being able to help save you money as well as helping you with the timing.

For a free quote then contact me by email or calling me directly on 01494787478.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Bank of England keep rates on hold which causes the Pound to fall against the Euro

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UK interest rates were once again kept on hold by the Bank of England yesterday and it was confirmed that the vote was 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold at the same level.

The mid-market fell by 0.5% within a matter of minutes after the release of the news and many think an interest rate hike in the UK will not come for quite some time.

Just two weeks ago UK GDP figures came out at their slowest growth since 2012 and this was one of the main reasons given for why interest rates were kept on hold again. This has caused the Pound to fall against the single currency.

Only just three weeks ago Pound vs Euro exchange rates hit their highest level in almost a year as rumours were that an interest rate hike may be coming but recent poor economic data combined with the central bank keeping rates the same this has caused the Pound to be sold off causing GBPEUR exchange rates to drop.

As we go into next week, Tuesday could be a very volatile day as we have a number of important economic data releases due out. UK unemployment figures are released as well as the latest average earnings data as well.

UK Inflation Report Hearings are also due to be released and this could cause a lot of movement for the Pound vs the Euro so make sure you keep a close eye out for what happens on Tuesday.

Later that same day Eurozone GDP data is due out so we could see a very volatile start to the week for Pound vs Euro rates.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer when buying or selling Euros.

For a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494787478 and asking for Tom Holian when calling or email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Modest gains for the Pound today despite some weak data, will tomorrow bring further movement? (Joseph Wright)

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Sterling has made some modest gains against the Euro during today’s trading session, despite some disappointing economic data being released this morning.

Retail Sales within the UK dropped off during April by -3.1%, which is the sharpest drop seen in over two decades. I think that there hasn’t been a massive move for the Pound because markets are generally attributing the drop to the poor weather and also the high inflation levels at the moment.

If the poor economic data continues though I am expecting to see the Pound drop-off throughout the year. At the moment we’re seeing some very poor data with UK economic output hitting a 5-year low recently, and Manufacturing PMI hitting a 17-month low.

Markets haven’t reacted much as I believe the poor weather is being blamed on the weak data, but once there isn’t a viable ‘fall guy’ I think there will be a market reaction.

Tomorrow could be busy for GBP exchange rates as there is a Bank of England meeting around mid-day. Previously there were expectations of a rate hike tomorrow. This boosted the Pound dramatically when the talk of it hit the headlines although since then the raft of poor data has softened the Pound’s value.

I think that those with an upcoming currency requirement involving the GBP/EUR pair should be aware of tomorrow’s main event, and if you would like to discuss it with me do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Pound to Euro rate softens again, is a move into the 1.12’s now a possibility?

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Sterling has weakened again this morning after hitting a high of 1.1350.

This suggests to me that there is increasing downside pressure on the Pound, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pair fall further as the Pound continues its slide from the highs of last month.

GBP/EUR hit the headlines last month when the pair hit an 11-month high, almost hitting 1.16. Since then a raft of unimpressive economic data has been released and the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney dampened hopes of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England on the 10th of this month.

UK GDP figures last week suggested that economic growth in the UK has hit a 5-year low, and just yesterday we found out that Manufacturing output has hit a 17-month low in the UK. The sensitive issue surrounding the Northern Irish border is heating up with no resolutions so far and the government has been under pressure owing to the Windrush scandal.

With so much negativity building in quite short period of time we’ve seen the GBP/EUR rate lose a few cents making large transactions costlier for Sterling sellers. The trend appears to be downward from here and the pair are now trading towards the bottom end of their current trend. A move further downward to 1.12 wouldn’t be unusual as the pair trading around that mark for much of the year, so if you would like to discuss an upcoming currency exchange you’re planning do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

UK GDP causes the Pound to fall against the Euro but for how long?

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Friday’s release of the first estimate of UK GDP data showed a fall to its slowest pace since 2012 which caused the Pound to collapse against the Euro as well as all the other major currencies.

Previous expectations of an interest rate hike coming next month on May 10th when the Bank of England meet have been dealt a serious blow as only a week ago the chances of a rate hike were as high as 85%.

The Pound had recently hit the best level to buy Euros since May 2017 but with GDP hitting just 0.1% for the first quarter of 2018 this has caused investors to think again about holding Sterling.

I still think we could see a rate hike coming in the near future but my opinion of one happening in May is now close to zero. The rhetoric at next month’s meeting will be crucial to the short term value of the Pound so if there is any suggestion that we could see one coming then this could boost the Pound but between now and then I think we could see the Pound face some further problems ahead.

On Wednesday the Eurozone release their own first estimate of GDP data and this could cause further movement if the data is very different to the expectation of 0.5% for the first quarter. We also see the release of Eurozone unemployment figures so if you’re in the process of making a currency transfer involving Sterling and the Euro Wednesday could be an eventful day so make sure you’re well prepared to act if necessary.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only with being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates when converting Euros but also help you with the timing of your currency transfer.

To find out more or for a free quote then email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

UK Inflation causes the Pound to fall from recent highs vs the Euro

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The Pound has fallen from its recent highs vs the Euro after UK inflation showed a fall to its lowest level seen in over 12 months. Inflation data fell from 2.7% in February to 2.5% in March which has pushed back the expectation of an interest rate hike next month when the Bank of England meets on 10th May.

However, according to some reports there is still a chance of 85% that an interest rate hike may occur and I’m inclined to agree that a rate hike could come next month.

This has seen a movement of over 1% between Sterling and Euro or the difference of €2,300 on a currency transfer of £200,000 highlighting the importance of keeping up to date with market movements.

This morning UK Retail Sales are due to be released and this could be the next catalyst of change for GBPEUR exchange rates and if they come out higher than expected this could possibly push the Pound past 1.15 again later on today providing those looking to send money to Europe with a good opportunity.

Meanwhile in Europe inflation also fell in March from 1.4% to 1.3%. However, as the UK’s figures had a larger disparity the Euro strengthened against the Pound.

To end the week the International Monetary Fund will be meeting in the US to discuss the global economy. One of the main topics for discussion will be bailouts as Italy were one of the recent benefactors and with things not yet sorted politically this could cause some uncertainty as to whether the loans may be repaid.

If you would like more information about buying or selling Euros and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money so feel free to send me an email directly with an outline of your particular requirement.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

GBP/EUR- 1.15 Remains a Resistance Point (Daniel Johnson)

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What will it take to breach 1.15 and Remain above 1.15?

The pound has made significant gains against the majority of major currencies recently and has breached key resistance points against the greenback and the Aussie, 1.40 and 1.80 respectively. Against the Euro however we only saw GBP/EUR above 1.15 for a very small window of opportunity and the market quickly retracted.

There has been several catalysts for the pounds advance. We have seen a significant improvement in UK retail sales, previous figures came in at – 0.2% and there was predicted to be an increase to 0.4%. They actually landed at an impressive 0.8%.

We also witnessed average wage growth move closer to parity with inflation which is a real indication of a healthy economy. There was already a strong probability of a rate hike in May from the Bank of England (BOE), but these data releases bring it even closer.

There was further good news when it was announced the UK would have access to the single market during the Brexit transitional period. I am of the opinion if these events lack the influence to keep GBP/EUR above 1.15 it will take something significant to do so, Possibly clarity over the contentious Irish border deal.

For the last 11 months 1.15 has been a resistance point and so my stance remains the same for Euro buyers, if the market is in the 1.14s you are in a good position to trade.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Daniel Johnson