Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Will the Euro weaken further in December?

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The Euro has been under pressure after a weekend that saw rioting in Paris and a far-right party gain power in Adalusia, Spain. Political concerns across the Eurozone are being closely monitored, following the gap in political dominance, following the steps taken back by Angela Merkel. With concerns growing about the future direction of politics within the Eurozone, there are questions over to what extent this will affect the Euro.

The Vox party gained support with 12 seats being won out of a total of 109. This is indicative of the general trend in Europe to reject the established order of centrist and socialist powers, with governments becoming more and more right wing and extreme. Such a direction is concerning for financial markets since it could be a trigger for a fracturing of the existing order and lead to less economic cooperation between the Eurozone countries.

In France, Macron is struggling to get a grip on the protests that have now turned to riots over an unpopular fuel tax. The growth of support in far-right and far-left governments could easily destabilise the Euro and markets will now closely follow just how this story pans out. Macron had gained power on a promise to be able to tackle such groups but he is now facing calls to resign, over his mishandling of the issue.

The Euro has a tough month ahead with the latest news from the ECB, European Central Bank next week. The ECB has been promising to withdraw their QE plans but many suspect they might need to look at more accommodative measures to keep their economic recovery  on track. Clients with a position buying or selling Euros should be very aware of a potentially very volatile period ahead as the market tries to second guess the ECB.

December and 2019 could well see some new pockets of uncertainty owing to political concerns which would put further pressure on the ECB, who have a history of being overly optimistic with their designs on monetary policy.

Thank you for reading and if you wish to discuss further the movements on the Euro and how it might influence your transactions, please do contact me Jonathan Watson to discuss further.

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson

Pound to Euro Forecast – Are the Brexit talks concluding?

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The Pound has so far this month experienced a lot of movement against the Euro touching 1.15 on a couple of occasions before briefly dropping again.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is being massively driven by the Brexit talks and with the sentiment having been shifting between positive and then negative recently this has been the reason for the volatile movement so far during November.

Up until last Friday morning the talks were going the right way but then Transport Minister Jo Johnson announced his resignation and his reason given was that he was not happy with the current Brexit proposals being offered.

Indeed, he even went on to say that he thinks the UK should hold a second referendum but clearly under Theresa May’s stewardship this will not happen as she has confirmed on a number of occasions previously.

Over the last couple of days the Pound has been edging up against the Euro as the talks are getting closer to concluding. Theresa May has even claimed that although the talks have been very tough the UK and the European Union are in the ‘endgame.’

Today, Theresa May will be meeting with the Cabinet at Downing Street to discuss the current plans and suggest the best way to sort out the Irish border issue.

According to some sources a deal will need to be done in the next twenty four hours if we are due to have another EU summit so depending on how today goes this could have a big impact in the short term value of the Pound against the Euro.

If the talks go well this will presumably allow for another EU summit to take place which means getting closer to the Brexit talks being concluded. Time is clearly running out so the pressure is mounting and Brussels will only hold the summit if an agreement can be reached on the Irish border issue which remains the key sticking point.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates so for a free quote please email me directly or call me on 01494787478.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Jo Johnson’s resignation and the impact on the Pound vs the Euro

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The Pound vs the Euro has hit its best rate to buy Euros since the end of May during Friday morning’s trading session but since then we have seen Sterling retreat from those highs against the single currency.

The brother of Boris Johnson, Jo Johnson has announced his resignation after disagreeing with the current Brexit proposals put forward by Theresa May.

He argues that they are not in the interests of the UK and the only way to stop this from happening is to hold a second referendum, something which will not happen under Theresa May’s stewardship.

He wants the UK to ‘pause and reflect’ before continuing with the current plans as he believes this is not in the public’s interest and it could cause ‘chaos’ if the UK leaves without a deal.

As Johnson is such a popular character in the Tories his resignation has divided the party and he now becomes the sixth member to resign under Theresa May’s government which highlights the fragility of her current party.

With so much division within the party this is likely to cause further instability for the Pound and if we see any other members also resigning this could cause further problems for the party and the Pound.

In the meantime we have still seen some very strong UK GDP data on Friday  but the overriding factor affecting the future of the Pound against the Euro is that of Brexit.

Only a fortnight ago UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab was claiming that a deal could be done by November 21st and although Downing Street quickly denied the claims as speculative as far as I can see there’s no smoke without fire so his claims could have some justification.

If you have a currency transfer to make involving Pounds and Euros in the short term it may be worth getting this organised early next week. If you would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Is a Eurozone crisis around the corner?

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The Euro exchange rate has been weaker in the last few weeks as investors concerns over the outlook on Italy intensifies. Financial markets still bear the scars of 2010-2014 when there was a growing concern Greece would leave the Euro and we may possibly have seen major negative outcomes on the Euro. Let me be clear, I do not expect the Euro to collapse or Italy to leave the Euro, but it is widely accepted these issues were never properly resolved. Could another crisis be just around the corner?

Italy is proposing to spend its way back to economic prosperity quoting Donald Trump and his economic plans as an example of what is best. This has worried investors as to what direction the Eurozone economy will take, Italian GDP was recently confirmed as 0% for Q3, stoking fears the outlook could be rather shaky ahead.

There is now a deadline to complete this by the 13th November where the market will eagerly await the latest news to see if Italy or the EU will capitulate first. Whilst the Italian budget deficit is within Eurozone rules, it is well beyond the previous plans Italy were working towards and represents concern over the future direction of the Italian and also the Eurozone economy. With Angela Merkel stepping aside and other fractions across the continent on immigration and economic matters, the Euro could lose value if investors become fearful once again.

The Euro is still at historically strong levels against many currencies owing to the expectation the ECB, European Central Bank will raise interest rates in 2019 and finish their QE, Quantitative Easing program this year. However, the ongoing trade spat with the US, the concerns over Brexit and these internal issues could also threaten these intentions and see the Euro weaker.

If you have a position buying or selling Euros there are many key issues that could significantly drive the levels in the weeks ahead. For more information on the latest news and events to move your position, please feel free to contact myself Jonathan Watson directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson

Could a Brexit deal be reached this month and the impact on Pound Euro exchange rates?

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The Pound vs the Euro touched 1.14 during Friday’s trading session as it appears as though the tone towards Brexit is improving.

According to some reports the UK has been able to agree a deal for financial services with the European Union post-Brexit and this has helped push the Pound in an upwards direction vs the Euro.

This could be a huge coup for the Prime Minister as it means that businesses could be in a stronger position as this would help remove some uncertainty.

This news was followed by Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab’s claim that a final deal between the UK and the European Union could be agreed by 21st November. However, this has been denied by Downing Street who claimed that the story was speculative.

Meanwhile the tone from the Bank of England on Thursday was much more positive with the governor Mark Carney calming fears over a no-deal Brexit and that he fully expects a deal to be done between the UK and the European Union.

I am inclined to agree with him as there is too much at stake to not put a deal together and I think it will be a matter of time before things are resolved.

The real issue though is that even if the UK and the EU can come to some form of resolution the UK will still have to get the deal ratified in parliament and that could be very tricky as the Tories do not have a majority.

Next week the first important bit of economic data for the Eurozone will come with Retail Sales for the continent and we end next week with a huge amount of UK data.

Friday brings with it UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production data as well as UK GDP data so expect a busy end to the week if you’re planning a currency transfer.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Euros and would like a free quote then email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Brexit negotiations back in the spotlight

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Now that the UK budget is over, I expect the Brexit negotiations to heat up once more. Rumors floating around the market was that Theresa May wanted to get the budget out of the way before she potentially gives in further to more of the EU demands as she was fearful that the DUP would vote down the budget and force a snap election.

Over the last two and a half weeks GBPEUR exchange rates have declined by 2 1/2 cents as the likelihood of a no deal Brexit has increased. It appears that a ‘backstop within a backstop’ is the new hurdle that needs to be overcome. The EU want the UK to agree to Northern Ireland staying in their own backstop agreement, if the UK and EU haven’t agreed to a deal to keep the border open  by the end of the transitional period and original backstop. This is all because the UK PM has said there has to be a time limit on the original backstop agreement which is the whole of the UK remaining part of the customs union for a period after Brexit.

This looks when of the toughest challenges that the Prime Minister has had to face and some of her own MPs have stated they have filed letters of no confidence due to the current proposal. It doesn’t look like this problem is going away for the next 4 weeks therefore I expect further losses for the pound.

In other news the key economic event for the remainder of the week is the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday. I strongly believe that all of the members of the Bank of England will vote to keep interest rates on hold and it will be the Governors speech shortly after that will impact exchange rates.

The currency company I work enables me to achieve better exchange rates than the high street banks whilst providing clients with economic data which helps them to time their currency transfer. If you are purchasing a property abroad / have sold a property abroad and would like to repatriate your currency, a business owner and needs to buy and sell GBPEUR for stock or just have a one off currency requirement feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Dayle Littlejohn

How much further will the Euro weaken?

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The Euro has been weakening as concerns mount over Italian debt levels which saw bond yields on Italy’s government debt jump to levels not seen since 2014. With the current yield (return) on the debt at 3.7% at its highest this week, the Euro has weakened quite dramatically which has caused a weakness on the Euro.

The yield is essentially the return investors will get for investing in the debt and the riskier it is, the higher the price that this will rise. Any move above 4% would likely spark fears over other Eurozone economies, a report in the Financial Times today suggests that this level could be a ‘tipping point’ for other concerns.

As a mark of just how far the concerns have come, we have seen this yield rise from below 2% when the new coalition took power in May. This is quite a dramatic turnaround in a short space of time and helps explain why the Euro has been sold off and what troubles could lie ahead in the future.

Economic issues will also take precedence as we get closer to the 25th October, this is the next ECB, European Central Bank, meeting where we will learn of some of the latest news relating to their economic plans. The Euro might well come under some further pressures in the weeks ahead because of this, it might be that the Italian issues force the ECB to scale back some of their plans.

Political concerns in the Eurozone are also around owing to some of the issues remaining in Spain. Expectations for the Euro are likely to remain troubled in the weeks ahead and this might well put more pressure on the single currency.

If you are looking to buy or sell the Euro then we have some very interesting developments ahead for the Euro, as well as its counterpart currencies. An example would be GBPEUR where Brexit appears to be taking shape which has helped the pound to a 3-month high against the Euro. And against the US dollar, continued US confidence over higher interest rates has seen EURUSD fall to 2 month lows.

If you have a position buying or selling Euros and wish for some information on the best timing and strategies to help maximise any currency position, please do contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and discussing this most interesting of currency markets soon.

 

 

 

Jonathan Watson

Will the Pound manage to break 1.14 vs the Euro over this important period for the UK?

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Although there are no major economic data releases for the UK economy today, there could still be movement for Sterling exchange rates owing to some key meetings taking place in Brussels. Today the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab will be meeting with chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels to discuss the current Brexit plan as time to agree on the deal runs out. This comes at an important time as next week on the 18th and 19th there will be an EU summit where Brexit will once again dominate the discussions.

Apart from today there will also be some key talks on Wednesday when Michel Barnier will present a draft political declaration to the EU commissioners and ambassadors. This will represent the last chance for the UK to alter it’s stance before the Summit next week so I expect the talks today and the EU update on Wednesday to have the potential to move the markets.

Sterling has gained in value against the Euro over the past week and its currently trading around its highest levels since early July this year. This has happened as rumours that the contentious Northern Irish issue is closer to being resolved. According to reports the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May is planning to change her ‘back stop’ agreement which keep the whole of the UK in a ‘temporary customs arrangement’ rather than just Northern Ireland which was the original plan.

With this topic likely to be a key talking point this week those following the GBP/EUR rate should be weary of this, as it’s the main driver of the Pounds value at the moment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

What factors are currently influencing the Pound to Euro exchange rate?

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The GBP/EUR exchange rate had a busy day yesterday, as the we saw the pair hit a 2-month high along with seeing a slight sell-off in the afternoon owing to Brexit related updates.

The inflation figure for the UK in August unexpectedly jumped to 2.7% after the markets were expecting to see a figure of 2.4% released. This boosted the Pound’s value as the chances of further interest rate hikes from the Bank of England are supported by this data release, which is considered a GBP positive.

Then in the afternoon after GBP/EUR had hit it’s 2-month high , getting closer to 1.13 at the interbank level we saw much of the earlier gains reversed and was because the UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May rejected the EU’s most recent proposal regarding the Northern Irish border. This matter is becoming a contentious issue that neither side seems prepared to give any ground on, and I expect it to continue to drive the Pound to Euro exchange rate when there are updates.

As of yesterday evening there is a 2-day informal meeting in Salsburg, Austria between the EU members and I expect Brexit to be a talking point. Any updates are likely to result in currency fluctuations so it’s worth being aware of this if you’re planning on making a currency exchange in the short term future.

Later this morning there will be a release of data from the UK in the form of Retail Sales data. Drops from the previous months figures are expected and do get in touch if you wish to be updated regarding this release.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Will Sterling’s advance continue? (Daniel Johnson)

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We have seen Sterling make gains against the Euro of late following comments from Chief Brexit Negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier. He stated a Brexit deal could be realistically put in place in a 6-8 week time frame. Although this is certainly more positive than previous comments there is still concern from investors.

The PM’s job is under threat and political uncertainty never helps the currency in question particularly in the middle of some of the most important negotiations for this country in over 50yrs.

Shadow Brexit Secretary, Emily Thornberry suggested Labour will vote against any kind of Brexit deal as it stands as she believes the likelihood of the Conservatives being able to agree on a deal within the current time scale to be highly improbable.

Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney may have weakened Theresa May’s position in talks last week by stating that if May manages to convince EU members to loosen certain parameters and go with the principles set out in the Chequers plan the economy could expect a boost of up to £16bn. This may not have been wise to announce this to the public as EU negotiators will now be aware of the potential benefits to the UK if Britain gets it’s way.

There has also been news that Greece is finally on a the right track in terms of paying the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with positive economic data. This bodes well for the Euro considering there were real concerns Greece could leave the bloc.

Last week following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision it was confirmed that Quantitative Easing would be ending this year which has boosted investor confidence in the Euro.

I think there is still the potential for GBP weakness as Brexit talks intensify and if you are buying Euros short term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

When will the Euro weaken?

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When will the Euro weaken?

A common question I get asked is ‘When will the Euro weaken?’. After peaking at 1.44 on July 18th 2015 the Euro and GBPEUR has been trending lower as a deal was struck for Greece and also the markets found confidence from a reiteration of Mario Draghi’s promise to do ‘whatever it takes’ to shore up Eurozone finances.

Since then and following the UK EU Referendum result the Euro has risen against all currencies, dramatically so against the pound with current levels at 1.11, peaking at 1.075 in August 2017. Whilst there are events which might see the Euro slightly weaker, depending on which currency you are buying Euros with the going looks set to remain tough for Euro buyers.

GBPEUR Forecast

Euro buyers with pounds have a significant challenge with many unanswered questions over Brexit to resolve before the pound can be back in a position to capitalise. At some point this will happen but it could be many months or maybe years before we see it. With a series of upcoming events to  move rates including some key EU Summits, the rest of 2018 will be crucial.

If you are buying Euros with pounds and wish to be alerted to a particular level, maybe 1.15 or 1.20? Please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of your position and a phone number and we can have a discussion about the best strategy to maximise your position.

Euro weakness ahead?

The key factor driving Euro strength is the expectation that the ECB, European Central Bank will raise their interest rate in the future, currently believed to be between ‘summer’ and the end of 2019. The ECB are also planning to halt their QE, Quantitative Easing program by the end of this year too, which is also driving confidence.

Any deviation from this high expectation could unsettle the Euro and clients interested in GBPEUR might find some important information next Thursday 13th when we have both the ECB interest rate decision plus, the Bank of England too. GBPEUR could be in for some turbulent times on this day. So, if you are looking to buy Euros with pounds or buy pounds why not get in touch for a discussion of the best strategy and rates for the transaction.

On amounts of currency from £10,000 upwards, we can help with a preferential rate and expert strategy to assist in the timing and planning of your exchange. Maybe you are unsure as to what are your options when considering a large volume currency exchange? Maybe you wish to get a second opinion or maybe you you have used another currency broker and wish to check you are truly getting the best deals?

Our specialist service is designed to personally assist you in the safe and smooth passage of your currency at the very best rates of exchange.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson, Associate Director at Foreign Currency Direct plc

jmw@currencies.co.uk

01494 787 478

Jonathan Watson

Turkish debt concerns could cause trouble for the Euro (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – At present there seems to be little hope for Sterling rising in value against the majority of major currencies. The main anchor for the pound is the fact that a Brexit “no deal” scenario is still on the cards, while this is still a possibility I think there is little hope for Sterling to gain significant ground.

There could however be the chance of Euro weakness. If the Turkey situation escalates this could well hit the Euro. There are several large European Banks who are owed substantial sums of money from loans to Turkish business. BBVA, BNP Paribas and Unicredit are among those owed.

The problem is due to the rapid fall in Turkish Lira and the ongoing strengthening of the US Dollar. The loans were predominantly taken out in US Dollar and now due to the currency differential the debts are now substantially more expensive.

Inflation is also rising rapidly and President Ergdogan has been extremely stubborn in regards to trying to counter the effects through a change in interest rates. A central bank is meant to act as a separate entity to the government, but with the appointment of Erdogan’s protege and son-in-law in charge of Turkey’s economy there seems little chance of any counter measures against inflation.

Qatar has just provided $15bn in financial aid which has eased the problem, but if the International Monetary Funds (IMF) needs to get involved this could send shock waves through the market and the Euro could lose value.

If you are sitting on Euros at present and are moving back to Sterling I would take advantage of current levels. I think there is potential for further gains for the Euro due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit, but looking at risk verses reward I would be taking advantage of current levels, we sit at a yearly high for Euro sellers.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

Daniel Johnson