Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

GBP/EUR rises, could it continue? (Ben Fletcher)

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Yesterday saw one of the most positive days in a long time for Sterling with the GBP/EUR rate spending the whole day in the 1.13’s reaching 1.136 at the peak. This morning the Sterling Euro rate has moved beyond yesterday day highs sparking hope that a return to the 1.14’s and above may happen.

Earlier this week the reluctance of Members of the Bank of England to provide positive insight into a future interest rate hike saw Sterling crumble to the 1.11’s against the Euro. Now that there has been a resurgence for the GBP/EUR it does beg the question how much higher could the rat go especially if the interest rate rhetoric returned.

The Great Repeal Bill

One of the key topics over the next few weeks will be the Great Repeal Bill which will essentially transfer over 10,000 EU Laws into UK Laws. Whilst this seems a fairly obvious process and would mean the same rules apply as under the EU, there is a major conflict rising in the House of Commons. The Conservatives Ministers are being challenged as they’re in a position to change laws without any scrutiny from Parliament. There is also concern from the devolved Governments as to how they may be able to influence laws, with the UK Parliament able to dictate what changes.

In short without digging to deep, there could be further uncertainty. If all of the changes in legislation are required to be voted on that could take years to complete the process, meaning come March 2019 the UK my not have a set of laws. Whilst there is not expected to be a vote until the Autumn, once the Bill is revealed it will be clear to find out what the challenge ahead will be for the Conservatives.

If you have any questions with regards to my forecast above please don’t hesitate to contact me. I would be more than happy to discuss your requirement and provide a strategy that will work for your unique needs. I may also be able to offer a potential method of completing the transfer. Please send me a brief description of what you’re looking to do at brf@currencies.co.uk

Ben Fletcher

GBP/EUR Rate Set For Rocky Week (Ben Fletcher)

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The rest of the week could bring significant GBP/EUR volatility despite a very quiet start to the week. Tomorrow two members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, which decides the UK’s interest rate levels , will speak providing their latest thoughts. The BoE could hold the key to help the GBP/EUR increase. If the central bank were to raise interest rates I believe the GBP/EUR rate could move above the 1.15 level.

Inflation has been rising at a fast rate since the Referendum result last year, as this continues one of the ways to slow things down would be to raise the interest level. Therefore when the members of the committee speak they can give an insight into how they may vote going forwards, which could get the market excited for a hike. Whilst these may be non events any chance of a jump for Euro buyers shouldn’t be missed, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the pound as you don’t know how long a spike will last.

Unemployment and Average Earnings

To add a little more uncertainty to this week, the latest Unemployment figures and Average earnings will be released on Wednesday. The Unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.6% but average earnings may reveal that inflation is moving faster than pay. Once again with this in mind it could start to pain a bleak picture for more to come.

If you have any questions with regards to my forecast above or would like to discuss an upcoming requirement you have please feel free to get in touch. I will respond within a few hours and may be able to present a solution to your currency transfer. I work at a brokerage which has been trading for 18 years and have been helping clients move their funds abroad. Please send me a brief description of what you’re looking to do to brf@currencies.co.uk  and I will be in touch.

 

Ben Fletcher

Euro the strongest currency of the day! Euro buyers and sellers may have re-evaluate their plans (Joshua Privett)

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The Euro has enjoyed the spotlight on what had been a relatively quiet day for currency markets, but the ramifications are very real in the near term for Euro buyers and sellers alike from the news today.

There were a couple of moments which coupled together creating a fairly mouth-watering picture for currency traders towards the Euro today – explaining the 0.6-0.7 month gain from a sudden turnaround at around midday.

Firstly European Central Bank member Peter Praet hit the headlines with a comment that the bank’s confidence in economic recovery had been bolstered by recent performance and business confidence data. He pointed to risks to growth outlook being now largely palatable – which sets the scene for the Bank to discontinue their actions and thought process from a position of anxiety. He also pointed to an easing on price pressure being noted – meaning the Eurozone’s long-term issues with inflation may finally be being relieved.

The minutes from the most recent meeting of the ECB last month combined very well with these comments. Effectively it stated that emergency stimulus would be wound down if inflation managed to improve.

Given the speech earlier that day, which suggested improvements to inflation prospects were likely, traders were able to put two and two together and immediately began buying up Euro’s. Demand soared with the prospect of the Eurozone stimulus being wound down, and this demand is why you saw inroads against the Pound.

The momentum now seems to be behind the Euro heading into the weekend so anyone with a Euro buying requirement may wish to act sooner rather than later. Conversely, anyone looking to sell Euros may wish to look for opportunities tomorrow afternoon before the close of play for the weekend.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro based currency requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you significant sums of money on a prospective transfer.

Joshua Privett

Sterling Euro Holds at 1.14 and The Future Looks Positive (Ben Fletcher)

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Th GBP/EUR rate has continued to hold at the 1.14 day for another day, providing confidence that a jump could be on the cards. There was disappointing PMI data released this morning however it had little effect on Sterling. Whilst teetering in the 1.14’s is not to much to write home about, considering the negative trend of late a small show of strength does make a difference.

Mark Carney to Speak Friday

President of the Bank of England Mark Carney has been considered a bearer of bad news in the past for Sterling however after last week that changed. I would admit that Carney did cause the dramatic fall to 1.12 last month by suggesting there isn’t going to be interest rate hike, despite inflation being at a multi year high. Last week Carney backtracked saying the fiscal stimulus in place will be checked inevitably and there could be a need for a rate hike in the second half of 2017. This got markets excited for sterling’s future hence the near two cent jump.

On Friday Carney will once again speak and it seems unlikely his mind will change again. I don’t think he is going to guarantee a interest rate hike however I do think he may support once this year. News like this in my opinion could help the GBP/EUR rate move towards the 1.15 by as soon as Friday. As you know with currency markets there is always a danger that everything could change in a instant but a breakthrough into the 1.15’s would be a month high.

If you’re looking to purchase Euros in the near or long term future for any reason, I would be happy to discuss when might be a suitable time to complete your trade. If you send me a brief description of what you’re looking to do by email at brf@currencies.co.uk I will get back to you with my thoughts.

Ben Fletcher

Brexit Negotiations not going to Plan (Daniel Johnson)

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Big Compromises may be a necessity in brokering Brexit Deal

It seem British officials may be forced to drop it’s “cake and eat it” strategy. Negotiations may be more hard fought than previously anticipated. It will be difficult to negotiate market access and still maintain political control.

There are rumours there has been a change in stance by the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) post election. There now needs to be a choice between prioritising the UK’s economy or sovereignty.

The original aim was to have full trade access and still have control over immigration. The problem of course is over freedom of movement of people. It is looking as though the original plan will be difficult to achieve.

It may come down to two options.

  1. A high access, low control arrangement similar to the European Economic Area (EEA). The EEA The EEA Agreement provides for the inclusion of EU legislation covering the four freedoms — the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital — throughout the 31 EEA States. In addition, the Agreement covers cooperation in other important areas such as research and development, education, social policy, the environment, consumer protection, tourism and culture, collectively known as “flanking and horizontal” policies. The Agreement guarantees equal rights and obligations within the Internal Market for citizens and economic operators in the EEA.
  2. A low access , high control arrangement which could end up similar to CETA. CETA is a trade agreement between the EU and Canada. It makes it easier to export goods and services, benefitting people and businesses in both the EU and Canada. The European Parliament voted in favour of CETA on 15 February 2017. This could prove detrimental to the UK economy.

 

Trade negotiations will be key to GBP/EUR buoyancy levels for the considerable future. The current two year target is unrealistic with some senior government members predicting it could take up to a decade. If you have a requirement involving this currency pair it is vital to keep up to date with negotiations. The current situation does not bode well for the pound. It is looking like there may have to be considerable compromise on terms if a deal is to be brokered.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is vital to be in touch with someone with experience in trading if you wish to obtain a high return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider already in place I will perform a comparison with your current brokerage or bank. I am confident I will demonstrate you a considerable saving and it will only take a couple of minutes. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.   I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

Sterling Volatility with Mark Carney Speeches This Week (Ben Fletcher)

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Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak on Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon this week which could have a major impact on the GBP/EUR rate. Carney last week suggested there wasn’t much scope for an immediate interest rate hike, despite inflation growth however I think that tone might change. I think Carney will have to approach the interest rate prospects considering the level is already nearly a percent above the Bank of England’s mandated 2%.

Theresa May DUP Deal

The Prime Minister today confirmed her majority in the House of Commons signing a deal with Northern Irelands Democratic Union Party. For what sounds like a further £1.4bn to the Northern Ireland devolved Government budget, May has managed to purchase the vital support of 10 MP’s. Whilst this may not appear to be the most popular of agreements, May will now have the ability to vote through deals in the Commons.

Important data this week

Along with Mark Carneys two speeches this week, his counterpart from the European Central Bank Mario Draghi will also speak on Wednesday. Considering the recent strength in Eurozone data this could provide a boost for Euro sellers, however with talk of two bank bailouts in Italy the reality of extremes in the Eurozone may come home to roost soon.

For the UK there will be GDP data for the first quarter this year which could certainly create volatility if anything other than the expected is released. If you’re looking to complete a currency transfer I am able to assist with rates and timing of transfers. The markets constantly move and timing is one of the major factors to getting the best deal. If you would like to discuss an upcoming exchange please send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to create a plan that suits your needs.

Ben Fletcher

Buying and selling Euro exchange rates in limbo – much like the British Parliament (Joshua Privett)

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Since the Referendum last year the fortune of the Pound has been heavily tied to the political situation and the Brexit backdrop, which is why there is little surprise that until we have a formal Government arrangement in place following the inconclusive election, buying and selling Euro rates have been largely stagnant until news emerges.

The only variable for GBP/EUR since election day results came in and the Pound saw a tell-tale slump was the conflicting saga on interest rates.

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has been staunchly against the idea of a hike, and his choice to vocalise this at the recent Mansion House conference saw the Pound backtrack by 0.7 cents. Yet he has faced rebellion from some members of the 8-strong Monetary Policy Committee who wish to see an interest rate hike in the UK. They argue that concerns over price rises and fair optimism towards the UK’s economic performance warrant such a step.

This changing dialogue explains the oscillating moves on GBP/EUR between 1.1290 and 1.1420 over the past few weeks. Yet we are expecting conclusions to the political stalemate next week.

Markets are hungry for news. What is going to be in the content of the deal with the DUP? What, if any changes will be made on the UK’s stance towards a harder or softer Brexit?

The fact that any resolutions seems likely to help the Pound given the hints noted recently on currency markets should be in the forefront of anyone with a Euro requirement’s thought process. The question at this point arguably is just how much the Pound will rise up against the Euro next week, and not if. 

The variance will likely depend on the support the Government receives for its agenda, and the content of the Brexit aims. David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, has already said concessions would have to be made.

With this is mind it seems Euro sellers face a higher level of urgency next week, and I would be looking to move sooner rather than later. The vote itself will occur through Thursday and Friday. You can contact me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss how to secure a commercial rate of exchange far any imminent or indeed future transfers whilst selling rates are still close to the best levels available since the turn of the year.

Conversely, Euro buyers do not seem to have the same urgency. I strongly recommend that if you have a currency requirement to buy Euros to contact me again on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you a significant sum on a prospective transfer.

 

Joshua Privett

Bank of England to impact GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

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Over the last 30 days the pound has fluctuated against the euro by 5 cents. To put this into monetary terms, a well time €200,000 purchase, would have saved the client £7,500.

The pound  is trading against the euro at the lowest levels in 6 months. The reason for the has declined is because Theresa May’s conservative government failed to win a majority at the general election.

Looking ahead Theresa May will continue to try and form a government with the DUP and if this materialises I expect the pound to make back some of the losses we have seen over the last 4 weeks. However Brexit talks are set to start shortly after.

As I have reported in recent articles the divorce settlement has the potential to cause major volatility. Both parties at present seem to disagree on how the UK need to pay before Brexit negotiations begin. Trying to predict how these negotiations will finally pan out is impossible therefore if you are converting GBPEUR in the upcoming months have in the back of your head major swings could occur.

Tomorrow the Bank of England are set to release their latest interest rate decision. Inflation numbers showed an improvement on Tuesday and are now 0.9% above the Bank of England’s 2% target. The Bank of England are not in the position to raise interest rates however I wouldn’t be surprised to see Governor Mark Carney hint that the Bank of England will act if inflation rises further. Therefore I expect the pound to increase in value tomorrow.

If you are looking to save money when converting pounds and euros feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

Dayle Littlejohn

Euro Uncertainty over Spanish Banks (James Lovick)

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The Euro could be set for some rocky times ahead after the Spanish banking system has come back under the spotlight once again. Banco Popular was sold last week to Santander for just €1 after there was a run on the bank by its customers. Customers were withdrawing €2 billion per day which was by an urgent rescue was needed. The concern going forward is that other Spanish banks are likely to face difficulties and this could be Euro negative if there is financial contagion. Liberbank is the latest Spanish bank to have also come under the spotlight and the regulators have stepped in to stop market participants from shorting selling the bank.

EU industrial production numbers are released tomorrow and could give some clues as to the health of the EU and this is ahead of important inflation numbers released on Friday.

Meanwhile GBP EUR has dropped considerably after the surprise general election outcome last Friday. Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Arlene Foster will be in Downing Street today to try and finalise a deal that will see support for the Conservatives to allow them to govern. The Queens speech however may be delayed next week and this could see the pound come under renewed selling pressure. If the Queens speech is voted down which is what Jeremy Corbyn has said he will do then the pound could come under a huge amount of pressure and potentially sink. Clients buying Euros would be wise to make contact and consider all options.

Prime Minister Theresa May will also be holding talks with French President Emmanuel Macron later today which could give some clues as to what kind of line he will take with the Brexit negotiations.

If you would like further information on Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

James Lovick

Buying Euro rates deteriorate as May tackles back-benchers (Joshua Privett)

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Prime Minister may has brought forward talks with Conservative MP’s today in a bit to cobble together much needed support for their future affiliation with the DUP, with the Pound suffering from the almost panicked urgency of her move.

The next stage of Theresa May forming her Government, given that she did not win enough seats to form an outright majority, is to put together a legislative agenda which will be voted on in Parliament allowing her to proceed officially as Prime Minister.

She will have to make amendments to satisfy the Conservative’s unofficial partners, the DUP in order to secure their much needed votes. This issue is selling those concessions to her own party, who were frustrated with her recent gamble, which didn’t pay off.

There has already been an announcement in the delay to roll-out her legislative agenda, at the same time she brought forward her meeting with MP’s from the Conservative Party. Clearly May is expecting anything but a smooth process.

Details of the meeting will either be released or leaked over the next 24 hours, with the positive or negative nature of the news governing any changes in the value of the Pound.

News can be released at any moment in these situations, which means opportunities can suddenly emerge, but currently the opportunities appear to be confined to Euro sellers. The risk is very much laid at the feet of Euro buyers as it stands.

This is largely compounded by the French situation as well. Whilst the UK Government is facing an uncertain few weeks the French are heading towards strong majority support for their latest President as he presents sweeping pro-business reforms. This contrast from across the Channel should add pressure for GBP/EUR to drop below 1.13.

I am well positioned to assist anyone with a buying or selling Euro currency requirement to time their transfer and stay informed in this fluid marketplace. You can contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer and your options.

One final point is that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for a future requirement you have planned using only a small deposit, eliminating any risk from further currency exchange movements.

Joshua Privett

Buying Euro rates of exchange slip post-election, there may be more to come (Joshua Privett)

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In the very early hours of Monday morning currency markets will open once more following a poor showing for the Pound heading into the weekend, with buying Euro rates dipping to the worst levels seen this year before recovering.

The initial drop came when exit polls predicted an uncertain period with a hung parliament. But with some immediate negotiating, the 4 days of negotiating which 2010’s hung parliament brought was avoided and the Pound recovered.

However, Euro buyers are not out of the woods yet.

Tomorrow the Conservative legislative agenda has to be voted in, and Labour are desperate to use this as a platform to call for another election and undermine Conservative authority. We will have to see how happy all Conservatives are at the concessions made to keep the DUP on side for the next 5 years. If they arent, you ma see some MP’s break ranks, undermining Theresa May’s authority.

Markets will also react to the content of the agenda as well, not simply how well it is recieved.

How will this impact the Brexit agenda? Will tomorrow’s Commons session paint the picture of a Government who will struggle to operate efficiently in the face of major opposition? Will May be able to hold onto her position?

I am well positioned to assist anyone with a buying or selling Euro currency requirement to time their transfer and stay informed in this fluid marketplace. You can contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer and your options.

One final point is that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for a future requirement you have planned using only a small deposit, eliminating any risk from further currency exchange movements.

Joshua Privett

How to plan for an upcoming pound v euro currency transfer (Dayle Littlejohn)

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With only two days until the UK public vote on who they want to run the country for the next 5 years, all of my clients will have formed strategies in order to protect themselves from market fluctuations. It is important to note General Elections can have a major impact on the currency. Over the last election period pound vs euro exchange rates fluctuated 4 cents. To put this into monetary terms  a €200,000 transfer would have cost clients an additional £4,350 at the low points of the day compared to the high.

The final days of campaigning appear to be security focused due to the recent tragedies within the UK. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn believes that the cuts to the UK police force has had an impact on the safety of British people, where as Prime Minister Theresa May insists the police are well resourced. This debate will continue after the election, however will certainly be swaying voters at present.

Polling stations appear to be having a direct impact on exchange rates. It appears that when Labour gains momentum like they have been over the last 4 weeks the pound has been falling in value, showing there is a correlation. Therefore keeping your eyes on the polls could influence your decision if you trade before or after the election.

Since 8am this morning I have been asked who I believe will win the election and I still think the Conservatives will win a majority which could mean the pound recovers some of the losses we have seen over the last 4 weeks. However if I am wrong I expect further falls for the pound and GBPEUR to fall towards 1.10.

Quite simply if you are converting pounds into euros or euros into pounds within the next 6 months this election has the potential to have a major impact on exchange rates. If you have not already formulated a plan, feel free to email me with your requirements and I will respond with options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year and I have not covered the currency pair you are trading, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Dayle Littlejohn