Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

UK Inflation causes the Pound to fall from recent highs vs the Euro

by

The Pound has fallen from its recent highs vs the Euro after UK inflation showed a fall to its lowest level seen in over 12 months. Inflation data fell from 2.7% in February to 2.5% in March which has pushed back the expectation of an interest rate hike next month when the Bank of England meets on 10th May.

However, according to some reports there is still a chance of 85% that an interest rate hike may occur and I’m inclined to agree that a rate hike could come next month.

This has seen a movement of over 1% between Sterling and Euro or the difference of €2,300 on a currency transfer of £200,000 highlighting the importance of keeping up to date with market movements.

This morning UK Retail Sales are due to be released and this could be the next catalyst of change for GBPEUR exchange rates and if they come out higher than expected this could possibly push the Pound past 1.15 again later on today providing those looking to send money to Europe with a good opportunity.

Meanwhile in Europe inflation also fell in March from 1.4% to 1.3%. However, as the UK’s figures had a larger disparity the Euro strengthened against the Pound.

To end the week the International Monetary Fund will be meeting in the US to discuss the global economy. One of the main topics for discussion will be bailouts as Italy were one of the recent benefactors and with things not yet sorted politically this could cause some uncertainty as to whether the loans may be repaid.

If you would like more information about buying or selling Euros and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money so feel free to send me an email directly with an outline of your particular requirement.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

GBP/EUR- 1.15 Remains a Resistance Point (Daniel Johnson)

by

What will it take to breach 1.15 and Remain above 1.15?

The pound has made significant gains against the majority of major currencies recently and has breached key resistance points against the greenback and the Aussie, 1.40 and 1.80 respectively. Against the Euro however we only saw GBP/EUR above 1.15 for a very small window of opportunity and the market quickly retracted.

There has been several catalysts for the pounds advance. We have seen a significant improvement in UK retail sales, previous figures came in at – 0.2% and there was predicted to be an increase to 0.4%. They actually landed at an impressive 0.8%.

We also witnessed average wage growth move closer to parity with inflation which is a real indication of a healthy economy. There was already a strong probability of a rate hike in May from the Bank of England (BOE), but these data releases bring it even closer.

There was further good news when it was announced the UK would have access to the single market during the Brexit transitional period. I am of the opinion if these events lack the influence to keep GBP/EUR above 1.15 it will take something significant to do so, Possibly clarity over the contentious Irish border deal.

For the last 11 months 1.15 has been a resistance point and so my stance remains the same for Euro buyers, if the market is in the 1.14s you are in a good position to trade.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Daniel Johnson

Euro at its weakest against sterling since May 2017, but for how long will that remain?

by

The Euro remains very strong against all currencies although this week it was the turn of other currencies to take the spotlight and as expected the Euro lost ground. The pound is looking much better this week but I don’t think this will last against the Euro since despite some improved news, the overall market conditions do in my opinion continue to favour the Euro. Both politically and economically the Euro looks likely to remain ahead of sterling, the current positive mood for the pound over the Euro will not in my view last too long!

There is not a huge amount of news passing through regarding the Euro next week, some limited news relating to Consumer Confidence and some Inflation data. This news will more than likely do little to majorly unsettle the Euro against the pound, the current positive mood for the pound against the Euro does not look likely to be undone quickly but I don’t foresee any worse rates for Euro sellers either. Next week on the economic calendar the main news is UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data. We also have some important US data with US GDP being released too. A range of 1.13-1.15 seems likely to hold for now although the end of the week may see some volatility.

The Euro has been boosted in recent weeks by the Angela Merkel being reinstalled as German Chancellor, the worries in Italy don’t seem to be weakening the Euro too much. Whilst the Italian worries could be something to be alarmed about, for now there are more reasons to be positive than negative over the Euro. Next week is a shorter week because of the Easter Bank Holiday weekend which might see some extra volatility on Wednesday and Thursday as it is also the end of the first quarter of 2018. This might see month-end flows of currency creating unexpected buying and selling opportunities on the Euro.

If you have any currency transfers buying or selling the Euro and wish to get the latest trends and news we can help with some informed insight on the target rates to aim for and the best information to help maximise any transaction. Please feel free to email me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss further!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the weekend.

Jonathan Watson

Pound climbs on hopes of a rate hike in May, how could this impact GBP/EUR moving forward? (Joseph Wright)

by

The Pound jumped to its highest level against the Euro since early June last year during today’s trading session.

The rate went comfortably above 1.15 at it’s highest point today but it’s since dropped off back into the mid 1.14’s, which isn’t unusual to see when the rates jump to new high’s as profit taking usual puts pressure on the surging rate.

Aside from the positive news for the UK earlier this week when it emerged that the transitional Brexit deal has been arranged, the Pound has been boosted further today after the was shock result in the Bank of England’s voting members regarding their views on the monetary policy for the UK.

Markets had been expecting all 9 voting members of the BoE to vote in favour of keeping rates on hold at the moment, but 2 members shocked financial markets and voted in favour of hiking the rates at the moment. This has boosted hopes of a rate hike in May which is why the Pound saw a boost.

The comments after the vote were quite cautious as it was stated that the hikes would be gradual and limited which put a bit of pressure on Sterling, but personally i think that if the hike in May happens we’re likely to see a stronger Pound in the latter half of the year.

With the EU summit taking place in Brussels over the next few days I think those following the rates should be weary in case of further Brexit revelations.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Pound Euro hits 2 week high after low Eurozone inflation data (Tom Holian)

by

Pound Euro exchange rates have hit their best levels since the start of the month after a very positive week for Sterling against a number of major currencies.

The Pound increased in value against the single currency following lower than expected Eurozone inflation data which came out at 1.1% compared to the expectation of 1.2%.

A fall in inflation means that the chances of the ECB ending their QE programme may not be coming as early as some may have expected and this was the reason why the Euro fell against the Pound breaking past 1.13 during Friday’s trading session.

Next week could be one of the most volatile weeks all year with a large number of important economic data releases for the UK.

We begin on Tuesday with the latest Consumer Price Index figures which is a measure of inflation for the UK.

Inflation has been running well above target for a long time and towards the end of last year the Bank of Engalnd raised rates in an attempt to curb high inflation.

If the figure on Tuesday confirms the expectation of 2.9% this could provide support for the Bank of England to seriously consider raising rates and with a 75% expectation for a rate hike in May this could see GBPEUR rates move in an upwards direction if my prediction is correct.

On Wednesday UK unemployment data is published as well as Average Earnings.

The jobs market is close to the strongest since records began but Average Earnings are lagging behind inflation so any gains on Tuesday could be eroded by Wednesday’s data so if you’re looking at buying Euros next week it may be worth organising this prior to Wednesday.

Arguably the biggest day of the week in terms of volatility could come on Thursday when the Bank of England meet as well as the start of the EU summit which will clearly be focused on Brexit.

Depending on the tone this is likely to cause a lot of movement for GBPEUR exchange rates so if you’re concerned as to what may happen then it may be worth trading prior to Thursday.

If you would like further information about buying or selling Euros and would like a free quote compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Could a cut in QE be on the cards from the ECB? (Daniel Johnson)

by

Is a cut in QE justified?

The Eurozone’s economy is looking impressive, we have seen some of the best growth figures in over a decade. Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) has also hinted to a cut in Quantitative Easing (QE).

QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. This has been done in the past in other regions with it’s success being questionable. It seems QE can be justified in the Eurozone, although it has created debt in the trillions.

QE was cut last year from €60bn to €30bn, if there was to be a further cut we can expect the Euro to strengthen considerably. I think in order for this to occur or indeed a change in Interest Rates we will need to witness an increase in inflation, something the Eurozone has struggled with for sometime. Another worry is the stance of the Federal Reserve on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD is the most commonly traded currency pair in the world. The Euro currently sits at some of the highest levels against the US Dollar since 2014 and Several Federal Reserve members have stated they are unconcerned with US Dollar weakness. This could definitely become a cause for concern for members of the bloc as the high value of the Euro could hurt exports and seriously hinder economic growth.

Keep an eye on trade data if you are looking at trading the Euro medium to long term as this will give an indication as to the health of imports and exports.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor.

You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.
If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

Daniel Johnson

Inflation data could influence ECB Monetary Policy Change (Daniel Johnson)

by

CPI data key to ECB Monetary Policy

The Eurozone has been performing exceptionally well of late with some of the best growth figures in over a decade. Unemployment is also very impressive at very low levels. Investors are waiting with bated breath to see if there is a change in either interest rate levels or Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. It is far from a proven method, it is very hit or miss, but in the Eurozone’s case it can be argued the measures have worked. Last year the European Central Bank (ECB) cut monthly increments from €60bn to €30bn which caused substantial Euro strength. If there were to be a further cut the Euro could again strengthen considerably.

The one thing holding back a potential change in monetary policy is inflation. Inflation has been an ongoing problem within the Eurozone for a long period. It is a problem that is not easily solved. Especially considering the strength of the Euro at present hindering exports. The Federal Reserve are also making matters worse by some Fed members stating they are unconcerned with the weak value of the USD causing investors to choose the Euro over the Dollar.

That is why today’s inflation data release at 13.30 has the power to influence the markets. Expectations are for a significant fall, however if they are incorrect and the data is not as bad as expected we could see Euro strength. If you have a trade involving the Euro be sure to keep a keen eye on this data release.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

Sterling vs Euro forecast for the upcoming months (Dayle Littlejohn)

by

For people that are hunting online for information in regards to currency as they are buying a property in Europe and need to convert pounds into euros or have just sold a property in Europe and are looking to convert euros into sterling, I believe both sets of people will be provided opportunity in the upcoming three months. I specialise in property purchases and sales therefore if you fit into this category and want to achieve the best exchange rates possible I would recommend that you email me on drl@currencies.co.uk for more information. This is free, therefore you have nothing to lose.

Brexit negotiations continue to drive GBPEUR exchange rates and I believe this trend will continue in the months to come. Regular readers will be aware that Michel Barnier’s comments last week dented the value of the pound as he said that the transitional talks are not going to plan and I am not surprised. The art of negotiating is to aim high and therefore at present there are disagreements, good news for clients selling euros to buy pounds.

I’m not expecting GBPEUR exchange rates to fall much further as I believe the pound is extremely undervalued against the euro at present, however an extra on a €200,000 conversion which I believe is possible, in the current market achieves clients an additional £1,600.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has promised that the transitional negotiations should be sorted by the end of March and even though she is under extreme pressure from the EU officials, and most of the MPs within parliament, I expect she will have the transitional talks tied up by the end of March which should provide the spike in the market for euro buyers.

There will also be economic data releases that impact exchange rates as always, therefore if you only have a few weeks to make your currency transfer, I would recommend getting in touch to discuss the data releases drl@currencies.co.uk and we will discuss a strategy in a bid to maximise your transfer.

Dayle Littlejohn

Brexit uncertainty over the transitional period causes the Pound to fall against the Euro (Tom Holian)

by

After hitting close to a 9 month high to buy Euros with Pounds on Thursday afternoon the Pound has dropped dramatically during Friday’s trading session.

On Thursday the Bank of England raised their growth forecasts for the UK for both this year and next and suggested that an interest rate hike may be coming sooner than many expect.

Indeed, some sources believe there is a 75% chance of an interest rate hike coming by as early as May. When the Bank of England hiked rates towards the end of last year this was a direct attempt to control rising inflation which was trading above 3%.

With the latest Consumer Price Index figures due out on Tuesday the latest expectation is for 2.9% which is still way above the government target and another reason to bring a rate hike forward which in theory would help strengthen sterling against the Euro.

However, politically the Pound has come under pressure after EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier suggested that the transitional period which the UK will enter between March 2019 and December 2020 is still far from being sorted and this caused the Pound to fall against the single currency.

Barnier’s comments have caused the Pound to fall against all major currencies including vs the Euro with a fall of over 1% or the difference of £1,000 on a currency transfer of £100,000 highlighting the importance of using a currency broker who will be able to set Limit Orders for you which allows you to buy at pre-determined rates.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the near future then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Bank of England strengthen GBPEUR exchange rates

by

Yesterday we experience major fluctuations for GBPEUR exchange rates because of the bank of England. The monetary policy committee confirmed that interest rates would remain on hold at 0.5%, but also confirmed that the tightening of interest rates could occur as early as May this year.

At the same time as the interest rate decision the quarterly inflation report was released. The report suggested that if the economy continues at its current pace, wage growth numbers should start to improve and inflation fall, which is good news for the Bank of England. Furthermore the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, suggested that the jobs market will remain strong and unemployment will remain at a four decade low.

Off the back of the news GBPEUR exchange rates broke through 1.1450, however the gains were short lived and investors sold off the pound and exchange rates dropped back below 1.14.

With a Brexit report leaked yesterday suggesting there could be sanctions in place throughout the transition period when the UK leaves the EU, I am not surprised that investors sold off their pounds when the spike in the market materialised.

Today we are set to receive an update from the UK Prime Minister in regards to the negotiations and how they have panned out this week. Personally I expect Theresa May to remain as positive as possible, as her position is under threat at the moment.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pound finish the week on a high against the euro.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade GBPEUR / EURGBP at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend sending an email with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands!

 

Dayle Littlejohn

Sterling under pressure but will phase 2 of the Brexit talks help the Pound vs the Euro? (Tom Holian)

by

The Brexit has clearly dominated the rate to buy Euros with Pounds for a long time now and at the moment we appear to be stuck in a state of limbo with GBPEUR rates that are trading within a tight range since the start of the year.

After hitting a 9 month high last week with rates trading above 1.15 on Thursday the market has now started to fall again after negative reports from across the water on the continent.

One proposal is that the EU are suggesting that post Brexit in March 2019 until December 2020 that if the UK maintains EU law during this transitional period then any new laws created by the EU within this time period will have to also be adopted by the UK without our say which is clearly not good news for government.

Indeed, Prime Minister Theresa May has also been under a lot of pressure but she has committed her future to the UK and will remain in place as long as possible.

March will bring with it the latest round of Brexit talks with phase 2 due to begin which will be crucial and could cause big movements for GBPEUR exchange rates so if you’re in the process of buying a house in Europe then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer buying or selling Euros in the near future then feel free to contact me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Is now the time to sell euros and buy pounds?

by

In recent weeks the pound has been edging higher against the euro but it’s important to understand that the euro is performing well against most G10 currencies, however the pound is slightly out performing the single currency.

This weeks round of economic data releases helped the pounds value once more, as  UK GDP and Average Earnings numbers exceeded expectation. Growth and average earnings has been a worry for the Bank of England. Forecasters had suggested that growth numbers would continue to decline due to the slowdown after Brexit and uk inflation would outpace average earnings.

Inflation continues to outpace average earnings however forecasters are suggesting the boost in the pounds value this year will cause inflation to fall back towards 2.5% throughout the year. Since the numbers were released in the week the futures market is predicting a 50% rate hike in May and a 80% chance of a hike by November by the Bank of England.

In regards to Brexit, key figures from Europe have announced what they think should happen when the UK departs the EU. Last week French President Emmanuel Macron told the BBC that he believes the UK can have a special trade relationship with the EU and this wee German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaking at the Davos summit gave hope to UK businesses when she explained she wants to keep the UK as close to the EU as possible post Brexit.

The pound was making inroads against the euro and GBPEUR exchange rates broke through 1.15, however ECB President Mario Draghi stopped the run for the pound against the euro at the ECB interest rate decision when he gave his bullish speech about the European economy.

As stated above both economies are performing well at the moment however I expect overtime the pound to continue making inroads against against the euro. Therefore if you are selling euros to buy pounds I would look to make this transfer sooner rather than later.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year and I have not covered the currency pair you are trading, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Dayle Littlejohn