Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

GBPEUR forecast

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For people that are converting pounds into euro or euros into pounds in the upcoming weeks, you should expect an extremely volatile finish to the month.

Last week UK inflation numbers followed by the Bank of England’s interest rate decision provided strength for the pound and GBPEUR exchange rates have increased to an 8 week high! 

The Bank of England have hinted that an interest rate hike could occur in the upcoming months and as early as November as they believe inflation will continue to rise. Personally I believe an interest rate is unlikely and the Bank of England have artificially improved the value of the pound in a bid to combat the high inflation levels.

This week Eurozone inflation data is set to be released Monday morning. This release is important as the European Central Bank are monitoring inflation closely at present as the hype is that the ECB could taper the quantitative easing program in the upcoming months.

Later in the week (Friday) UK Prime Minister Theresa May is set to deliver a ‘life after Brexit’ speech in Florence. EU Parliament negotiator Guy Verhofstadt has insisted the UK Prime Minister will make an “important intervention” and if this is the case GBPEUR could rise or fall dramatically.

Next Monday will  be when we know who will have won the German election. Since the Brexit vote it has been heavily publicised that the EU will be reformed in the upcoming years and Germany as the powerhouse of Europe could have a major role to play. If Angela Merkel returns as the Chancellor of Germany I expect the euro to strengthen and other result could lead to substantial euro weakness.

With so many key upcoming economic events and major volatility expected, the use of limit orders in a volatile market could be the best option for clients. 

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade GBPEUR / EURGBP at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend sending an email with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands!

Dayle Littlejohn

Will GBPEUR hit 1.15 or 1.10 next?

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Well GBPEUR has finally risen after a very tough few month for Euro buyers! Expectations on interest rate rises for the UK in the future have led to sterling finding favour and rising against all currencies including the Euros. With GBPEUR having been languishing below 1.10 for so long and now having risen to 1.1270 at the highs today, we have to ask ourselves what happens next?

Next week is a very important one for the Euro since we get the German election and start to understand who will be the next German Chancellor. This will have profound implications not just for the Euro and GBPEUR but also global politics. Angela Merkel is of course the favourite but we could easily see an upset like we saw in the UK election only a few months ago.

The result is due on the 25th and the last real times to be discussing positions with clients will be the 22nd. If you have a transfer to make buying Euros making some plans in the coming week seems very sensible to avoid disappointment down the line. Ultimately it looks like the GBPEUR rate will drop back to 1.10 before it rises to 1.15, if I have Euros to buy next week could be the time to getting something done!

The currency markets change every second and for a variety of reasons, getting the best rates can be achieved through our specialist and proactive service to help you capitalise on the situation. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you in the future.

Jonathan Watson

EURUSD continues to improve

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Since the start of the year EURUSD exchange rates have improved an astonishing 15 cents. To put this into monetary value for clients purchasing $2oo,000 they will now save themselves  €23,784. Last week the Euro continued to strengthen against the US dollar and exchange rates pushed through and finished the week above 1.20.

President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi, failed to change monetary policy at the latest interest rate decision on Thursday. However the President did state that a bulk of decisions will be made in October, growth forecasts had risen to the fastest pace in 10 years and the euro was performing well.

Couple the above with Donald Trump’s government failing to have a positive impact on the US dollar, economic data out of the US disappointing which appears to have changed the stance of the Federal Reserve in regards to interest rates and the tensions in North Korea, it is no surprise EURUSD is on the charge and looks like it could get stronger in the weeks to come.

My experience is that US dollar buyers are tempted at present, as current rates sit at two and a half year high. However in my opinion holding off for an another month could strengthen their position, if Draghi tapers the quantitative easing program in October.

As for clients that convert GBPEUR, exchange rates have improved this week and with limited data releases or media stories released I expect the improvement is down to currency traders unwinding positions as they believe the pound has hit rock bottom. I expect GBPEUR to fluctuate just below 1.10 this month and then further falls to occur next month when Draghi gives clarity.

Here at eurorateforecast it is my job to provide clients regular market information, which will help the client make decisions when purchasing currency. As we have been buying and selling euros for 18 years, we have the ability to undercut high street banks which saves the client money.

Property purchases and sales are my area of expertise, therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.

For further information in regards to Euro exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Dayle Littlejohn

Will the Pound get stronger against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

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The Pound has made some small gains vs the Euro reaching its highest level in a few weeks recently but I think these gains will be relatively short lived.

The Pound fell from its highs yesterday afternoon when ECB president Mario Draghi spoke about the subject of Quantitative Easing.

The previous expectation was for December but then the comments made yesterday suggested that this could even be brought forward to as early as October.

Eurozone economic growth was forecast at 2.2% for 2017 which is the best since 2007 and highlights how well the Eurozone economy is performing at the moment. Eurozone GDP figures rose at a faster pace than initially expected hence the Euro strength.

I think the Pound will struggle to hold on to its recent gains as the Brexit talks will likely to come back into focus.

At the moment there have been figures suggested of between €60bn and €100bn for the ‘Divorce Bill’ and as yet nothing has been agreed which is causing problems for the Pound as the uncertainty and ambiguity continues.

Until we get some form of clarity as to what will happen next with the talks I find it difficult to see any real gains for the Pound vs the Euro coming any time soon.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

European Central Bank to Rock Markets (Ben Fletcher)

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This morning at 10am to start a busy day the Quarter 2 GDP figures will be released for the Eurozone and are set to remain the same as last quarter along with this time last year. Any variation on this data could generate volatility however if anything the data is likely to show a improvement. The EU business confidence has been good over the last 6 months, but it will be interesting to see if that becomes good data.

The main event today will be the European Central Bank’s latest interest rate decision, which will be followed by a statement from Mario Draghi. There has been talk of tapering back the current economic stimulus in the Eurozone, with many earlier in the year hoping that would come in September. However President Mario Draghi hinted two weeks ago that he may hold back from any changes until December at the earliest. This could have a detrimental effect on the Euro and we could see the GBP/EUR rate return back to the 1.10 in my opinion.

Brexit Bill Debate

In the UK to add to the drama the Great Repeal Bill will be debated in the House of Commons. The Bill is the process for introducing current EU laws into the British Constitution avoiding any sort of cliff edge once the UK part form the European Union. There is thought to be murmurs of a Conservative revolt which could be very threatening as they don’t have a majority. If there was dissent in the ranks then we may even see a vote of no confidence in the Government, which would cause instant Sterling weakness.

If you do have a upcoming currency requirement and would like to discuss what might be the best option, please send me an email to Ben at brf@currencies.co.uk. The currency markets are always moving and timing a transfer can help make sure you achieve the most for your funds. Working for a brokerage I am able to help you achieve the best rates of exchange and set alerts to make sure you capitalise on any movements on your favour.

Ben Fletcher

Services PMI data causes volatility on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

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Services PMI causes Sterling Spike

Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data was released in Europe and the UK today with varying results. Services PMI is an indicator of the economic situation in the  services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. Anything above 50 indicates growth.

There was a slight increase from Germany up by 0.1%, but French figures showed a significant drop of 0.6%. This was enough to see GBP/EUR strike a 2 week high of 1.0939. This was despite a small contraction the UK services sector of 0.3%.

If you are buying Euros I would be wary of thinking this will be a sustained rally. Sterling is being anchored by two major factors.

  1. Political uncertainty. Historically the currency in question weakens during a period of political uncertainty. With growing pressure on Theresa May to vacate her position as PM it does little to help the pound. Until there is  a stable government the pound will have a great deal of trouble making any significant gains.
  2. Brexit is the other major catalyst for Sterling weakness as  there is no clarity on the UK’s stance and there is conflict between UK negotiators and Brussels over payment of the proposed exit bill. Bad news is better than no news on the currency market which is why GBP/EUR still sits below 1.10.

There is also the possibility the ECB could announce tapering QE. If this is the case GBP/EUR could reach parity by the end of the year.

During such tough times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

What will weaken the Euro?

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The commentary is all around Euro strength at the moment but what could weaken the Euro? Well at the moment there are a number of potential hidden events that might rise in the future and cause the Euro to weaken. If you are selling Euros for pounds and rubbing your hands together expecting the rate to just improve could prove costly. Continued political certainty and a strong economy are all reason to predict further Euro strength but often on exchange rates the complete opposite can and does happen!

It is in no one’s interest, least of all the European Central Bank to see a strong Euro. To help stimulate economic growth the ECB want a weaker Euro to help drive economic recovery in the Eurozone. The strengthening Euro is potentially building up problems for a later date and the ECB will be keen to monitor this. Work of the ECB could also undermine the Euro in another sense as they embark on withdrawing their QE (Quantitative Easing) program.

When the US withdrew their QE program through the taper, the US dollar weakened as investors panicked over the outcome for financial markets. Whilst most central forecasts predict the Euro will rise, any paring back of these expectations could actually weaken the Euro. Plus any signs the QE taps will remain on longer than expected would also see the Euro weaker, there are no guaranteed outcomes on exchange rates!

All in all the going looks set to be tough for Euro buyers, but good for Euro sellers. Quick movements on the currency markets can see changes in thousands of pounds or Euro of the value of your currency exchanges. We offer a specialist view and market insight into the latest trends to help you with the timing and planning of any exchanges.

For more information and strategies relevant to your position please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson

GBP/EUR Rate Shows Hope For The Future (Ben Fletcher)

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Yesterday afternoon saw the GBP/EUR rate move into the mid 1.12’s which was over a 1 week high. This morning the rate has fallen back but it does provide indication that 1.12 is not a barrier. Next week the latest Bank of England Interest Rate Decision could hold the key for any imminent Sterling strength and should definitely be considered as a potential buying window.

Whilst the Central Bank are likely to raise their concerns about uncertainty, they may provide an indication as to what level inflation in the UK needs to be at for a interest rate hike. Therefore if you’re looking to buy Euros it may be worth setting a rate alert electronically so if the market jumps up to your desired level you’ll be informed, this is something I could help you do.

No UK Data Today

There is no economic data for the UK today, however there is business confidence data for the EU. At the moment sentiment data is at the highest ever readings so it would not be surprising to see more of the same. This means there could be a boost for the Euro at 10 o’clock this morning, if the rate does drop back down into the low 1.11’s it is worth noting that anyone looking to sell Euros would be doing so at a 10 month low.

If you would like to ask any questions about my forecast send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk. Please write a brief description of what you might be looking to do, I will be more than happy to try and help you develop a plan that will enable you to maximise your transfer. I will aim to provide you with a response as soon as possible, if you have a urgent query I can be reached on the trading floor at 44 01494 725353.

 

Ben Fletcher

GBP/EUR Back to 1.12, Where to Next? (Ben Fletcher)

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After Sterling had a positive day for the first time in what feels like an age, there could be more optimism this week which could bring further improvements. Sterling has been under major pressure with a steady fall over the past few weeks, with the high and the low of the currency progressively losing at least half a cent a week. The obvious answer at the moment would be continuous losses are expected in the short term with the only respite for the GBP/EUR coming from Euro weakness.

The Inflation Report due this week is likely to cause volatility as there is either going to be a indication to rising inflation, which following trends until last week was expected. If the Bank of England have now decided that inflation my not rise over the 3% level then the report may weaken Sterling. Over the past month there has been back and forth between Bank of England Members as to the chances of a interest rate hike and we may well get the answer on Wednesday.

In my opinion the longer term outlook for the GBP/EUR rate has to be negative with the 1.10 barrier under significant siege. For as long as the Brexit negotiations seem to be strumming up no answers Sterling is very unlikely to make any major grounds against other currencies. In order for the Pound Euro to start to claw back a significant amount of the lost ground, some form of crisis will need to return in the Eurozone.

If you have a upcoming requirement you would like to discuss or ask any questions about the comments please send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to share my thoughts and try to help you develop a plan that will enable you to maximise your transfer. I will aim to respond within a few hours.

Ben Fletcher

Pound vs Euro predictions

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This week GBPEUR exchange rates continued to decline. Rates started the week at 1.1420 and finished at 1.1140. To put this into monetary value, for clients that purchased €250,000 at the start of the week compared to the end would have saved themselves £5,500.

The pound lost value early in the week as UK inflation numbers fell from 2.9% to 2.6% which was a surprise. Inflation had been on the rise ever since the UK public voted out of the EU and economists were suggesting the Bank of England would have to act if inflation continued to rise. However with the dip in inflation I believe this rules out any chance of an interest rate hike this year.

Later in the week the euro gained value when President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi confirmed that growth is steady within the EU and also plans to start talks to reduce the quantitative easing program in the Autumn.

This week the UK are set to release their latest GDP numbers at 9.30 Wednesday morning. The prediction is for a fall to 1.7% from 2% therefore this could lead to further falls for GBPEUR exchange rates.

Brexit negotiations will continue to put pressure on the pound and this pressure will continue until the UK and EU start to sing off the same hymn sheet. I don’t believe any kind of progression will be made anytime soon.

The US interest rate decision Wednesday evening could also be a market mover. Interest rates will remain unchanged at 1.25% and I wouldn’t be surprised to see no further hints and if anything a fairly dovish statement from Janet Yellen. If this was the case I expect a further sell off of US dollars to buy euros and in turn GBPEUR could fall further. All in all I expect that GBPEUR could finish the week fluctuating close to 1.10!

For people that are converting pounds and euros for the first time, it is essential that you get the best exchange rates. If you have used a brokerage for many years or have been referred a brokerage I strongly recommend you compare rates to make sure you get the best price possible and therefore save money. This simple exercise takes two minutes and in the past I have saved clients hundreds and in some instances thousands of pounds.

My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call me Monday morning on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

Dayle Littlejohn

GBP/EUR rises, could it continue? (Ben Fletcher)

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Yesterday saw one of the most positive days in a long time for Sterling with the GBP/EUR rate spending the whole day in the 1.13’s reaching 1.136 at the peak. This morning the Sterling Euro rate has moved beyond yesterday day highs sparking hope that a return to the 1.14’s and above may happen.

Earlier this week the reluctance of Members of the Bank of England to provide positive insight into a future interest rate hike saw Sterling crumble to the 1.11’s against the Euro. Now that there has been a resurgence for the GBP/EUR it does beg the question how much higher could the rat go especially if the interest rate rhetoric returned.

The Great Repeal Bill

One of the key topics over the next few weeks will be the Great Repeal Bill which will essentially transfer over 10,000 EU Laws into UK Laws. Whilst this seems a fairly obvious process and would mean the same rules apply as under the EU, there is a major conflict rising in the House of Commons. The Conservatives Ministers are being challenged as they’re in a position to change laws without any scrutiny from Parliament. There is also concern from the devolved Governments as to how they may be able to influence laws, with the UK Parliament able to dictate what changes.

In short without digging to deep, there could be further uncertainty. If all of the changes in legislation are required to be voted on that could take years to complete the process, meaning come March 2019 the UK my not have a set of laws. Whilst there is not expected to be a vote until the Autumn, once the Bill is revealed it will be clear to find out what the challenge ahead will be for the Conservatives.

If you have any questions with regards to my forecast above please don’t hesitate to contact me. I would be more than happy to discuss your requirement and provide a strategy that will work for your unique needs. I may also be able to offer a potential method of completing the transfer. Please send me a brief description of what you’re looking to do at brf@currencies.co.uk

Ben Fletcher

GBP/EUR Rate Set For Rocky Week (Ben Fletcher)

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The rest of the week could bring significant GBP/EUR volatility despite a very quiet start to the week. Tomorrow two members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, which decides the UK’s interest rate levels , will speak providing their latest thoughts. The BoE could hold the key to help the GBP/EUR increase. If the central bank were to raise interest rates I believe the GBP/EUR rate could move above the 1.15 level.

Inflation has been rising at a fast rate since the Referendum result last year, as this continues one of the ways to slow things down would be to raise the interest level. Therefore when the members of the committee speak they can give an insight into how they may vote going forwards, which could get the market excited for a hike. Whilst these may be non events any chance of a jump for Euro buyers shouldn’t be missed, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the pound as you don’t know how long a spike will last.

Unemployment and Average Earnings

To add a little more uncertainty to this week, the latest Unemployment figures and Average earnings will be released on Wednesday. The Unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.6% but average earnings may reveal that inflation is moving faster than pay. Once again with this in mind it could start to pain a bleak picture for more to come.

If you have any questions with regards to my forecast above or would like to discuss an upcoming requirement you have please feel free to get in touch. I will respond within a few hours and may be able to present a solution to your currency transfer. I work at a brokerage which has been trading for 18 years and have been helping clients move their funds abroad. Please send me a brief description of what you’re looking to do to brf@currencies.co.uk  and I will be in touch.

 

Ben Fletcher