Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Euro forecast: Will ‘meaningful vote 3’ be confirmed today?

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In today’s Euro forecast, the focus will continue to be the Brexit discussions in the House of Commons. This is because, although today was the previously-expected official Brexit departure date, the details of the UK’s divorce from the European Union are yet to be finalised.

The extension is expected to last for at least 2 weeks, up until the 12th of April. The EU has previously warned that if a deal isn’t in place by then, there will be no scope for further extensions. So, Parliament will be keen to try and rectify the matter as soon as possible.

The discussions today will surround Prime Minister Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement and also alternative options, I would imagine. This is because, earlier this week, indicative votes on alternative arrangements failed to result in a clearly favoured option.

When to buy Euros

The biggest influence on GBP exchange rates at the moment remains this subject. This has been the case for much of the last 2-3 years. If May’s deal is voted in favour of, there will be an extension to the 22nd of May. So, it’s worth following today’s events in Westminster. If there is another confirmed vote on May’s deal then that would be the third, so perhaps it will be third time lucky for her.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate, when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So, for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Will rise the Euro rise? What’s next for Brexit

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If you’d like to know will the Euro rise, it may interest you to know that, on Wednesday 27th, all 8 indicative votes failed to pass in Parliament. This opens up the potential outcomes for Brexit somewhat.

It appears we are stuck in deadlock, with the clock still ticking. Parliament is adamant it does not want to leave without a deal, which was decided by a majority vote of 240. So another solution is required, other than crashing out in two weeks’ time.

Commons Speaker John Bercow recently reverted to a law made over 400 years ago that prevents repeat motions coming back to be debated in Parliament. John Bercow stated that there needs to be a “substantial change” in the current Brexit deal before it can be debated again. We still do not know if Theresa May will be able to get these changes, to bring the third meaningful vote back to Parliament tomorrow.

The current deal would mean the UK would be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union. Remaining in the Customs Union was the only vote last night which came close to an agreement and lost by only 8 votes. If we were to remain in the Customs Union this would ensure a softer Brexit. However, this would limit our ability to negotiate trade deals with other nations.

What is driving change in EUR/GBP rates?

Exchange rates are predominantly driven by Brexit rather than economic data at present, so the direction of the Pound is likely to be determined by tomorrow’s outcome.

German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released this afternoon and came in less than expected. The results were 0.4% MoM and 1.3% YoY, compared to expectations of 0.6% and 1.5% respectively. However, given the current times, this seemed to go unnoticed by the markets and focus remained on Brexit.

If you’d like to discuss the above factors and how they could impact your currency exchange in the short term, please don’t hesitate to get in touch using michelle.fox@purefx.co.uk.

Michelle Fox

Will Brexit be delayed and impact on Pound vs Euro forecast

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In this Pound vs Euro forecast I discuss yesterday’s vote in the House of Commons, when the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal was once again unsurprisingly rejected by a majority vote of 149 MPs. Owing to this result, MPs will be voting later on today whether or not the UK will attempt to leave the European Union without a deal on the 29th March.

The currency markets moved dramatically during yesterday’s trading session, but in the lead up to the vote the markets were muted. This is because the vote did not really come as much of a surprise to the markets.

If MPs vote against a ‘no deal’ later today, then another vote will take place tomorrow on delaying Brexit.

I think this is the most likely outcome and I expect Article 50 to be extended. This would mean the UK will not be leaving the European Union as originally scheduled on 29th March.

I also expect Theresa May to go back to the EU in an attempt to get more amendments made to the current plan. However, the Irish backstop is not yet resolved. Thus, I cannot see how anything she does over the next few days will result in a change in the House of Commons, if MPs are given another vote on the deal in the near future.

The idea of a ‘no deal’ Brexit is not popular either in the House of Commons or the EU, so the likelihood is for an extension. Even Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has said that a Brexit delay is now “inevitable.”

The next step will be then for Parliament to explain why they will look to extend Article 50.

Today at lunchtime Chancellor Philip Hammond will announce the latest Spring Statement. With such uncertainty surrounding Brexit, it is likely that the Statement will be relatively subdued and the focus will remain on the continued Brexit news.

Should I buy Euros now or wait?

With so much uncertainty surrounding GBP/EUR rates, it is difficult to predict what may happen. However, I think once we get a ‘no deal Brexit’ removed from the table, this could provide the Pound with some support.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly. I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Will Pound to Euro exchange rate rise amidst crucial Brexit countdown?

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The Pound to Euro exchange rate has remained in a fairly tight range, trading above 1.16 for most of this week so far, apart from a brief flirtation back into the 1.15s.

It appears as though the currency markets are adopting a wait-and-see approach before next week’s ‘meaningful vote’ in the House of Commons. Clearly, there appears to be a lot of support for the Pound at the moment, so next week’s vote will be crucial in determining the next stage with Brexit.

Politicians are still working behind the scenes to try and sort out a deal and, in particular, looking specifically at the Irish backstop arrangement. This has not sat well with politicians so far.

If the vote fails to go through on 12th March, the following day the House of Commons will be asked to vote on leaving the European Union without a deal. I think Theresa May will lose the first vote and the second vote will result in MPs rejecting a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

A third vote will then take place on 14th March. This will involve MPs voting on whether or not the Prime Minister should seek an extension to Article 50, to prolong the process past the current leave date of 29th March.

The potential extension could involve the UK asking the European Council for an extension until no later than the end of June. That is when MEP elections are due to take place.

Euro could weaken later today following ECB announcement

Later today, the European Central Bank will be announcing their latest monetary policy decision. At the moment there appears to be no appetite for changing interest rates any time soon. If ECB president Mario Draghi adopts a more dovish tone, and if the ECB suggest that they will be keeping interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future, then this could see the Euro weaken later today.

In the next few weeks we could see a huge amount of volatility, but I think we could see some gains for the Pound against the Euro, breaking past last week’s 18-month high. So, if you’re looking at buying Euros and would like further information or a free quote, then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Euro Rate Forecast : Euro Faces Fresh Challenges Ahead

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Welcome to our latest Euro rate forecast. The Euro faces fresh challenges ahead, as the market has to grapple with a number of important economic and political uncertainties.

The currency markets are moved through a number of factors, but two principal concerns are always politics and economics. At present, there is an abundance of the two to make life very interesting for anybody looking to make a Euro exchange.

Political concerns are sweeping across the Eurozone bloc, with no country seemingly unaffected. Some countries are attracting more attention than others, notably France and Italy. A rising tide of anti-globalisation and anti-integration has influenced mainstream politics in the Eurozone, and this is weighing on economic sentiment for the bloc.

Euro rate prediction: Eurozone elections may weigh

Investors are loosely eyeing up the European elections in May, which could see further evidence of this shift in perceptions. The shift in the political outlook reflects an increasing mistrust of the existing order. The recent strength of the Euro is now being threatened by these changes in the political makeup, as investors are concerned over just what lies ahead for the economy of the Eurozone.

On the subject of the economy, investors are grappling with the longer term outlook. At Christmas, a very confident European Central Bank indicated that they would be looking to raise interest rates in the future, whilst they were also looking to reduce their QE (Quantitative Easing) plan.

This helped the Euro to rise, but there’s been recent news that Italy is in a technical recession, while Germany narrowly avoided one. Also, there could be further trouble ahead if US President Donald Trump slaps tariffs on European automotive industries. This has all marked a shift in the economic viewpoint.

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast

The Euro is understandably weaker on these concerns. The next ECB meeting on the 7th March will be a key point to determine the future behaviour of the Euro. Another factor will also be the upcoming unemployment news which is at the end of this week. It does feel like the Euro could hit some further troubled waters ahead.

The next few weeks are going to be extremely interesting, with a possible final conclusion on Brexit, and unfolding developments in Europe. Thank you for reading and please do contact me if you wish to run through or discuss the markets ahead or our service.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson

Could next week’s Brexit vote boost the Pound vs Euro rate?

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In today’s Pound vs Euro rate news, we’ll look at how we’re just 5-weeks from the scheduled Brexit date, with negotiations between the UK and EU beginning to heat up.

Talks have been ongoing this week between UK Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. During this time we’ve seen the Pound climb in anticipation.

Yesterday, the GBP/EUR pair breached 1.15 once again, with the highest level hitting around 1.1538 early in the day. May has confirmed via social media that progress has been made. She’s underlined the need for the UK to see legally binding changes to the Irish back stop that ensure it cannot be indefinite.

It was the issues surrounding the Irish border, and how Northern Ireland will be treated once the UK leaves, that resulted in Theresa May’s Brexit deal being voted against in record numbers.

There is another meaningful vote on her deal scheduled for the 27th of February. However whether this will still take place remains to be seen, as the previous vote was delayed. So I wouldn’t rule out another delay.

This vote is likely to be one of the main drivers of currency movement for the Pound over the next few weeks. If you wish to be updated if there are any major market movements, do feel free to register your interest with me.

Sterling has dropped off this morning after some unenthusiastic comments from Juncker. That said, GBP/EUR remains just below 1.15. This isn’t far from the highest levels of the year (1.1602), which still reflects a positive sentiment from the markets.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate, when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So, for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Pound vs Euro rates: Less than 6 weeks until Brexit

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We are now less than 6 weeks away from when the UK is due to leave the EU. At the moment, the future is still uncertain, as are Pound vs Euro rates.

At present, Prime Minister Theresa May is looking to renegotiate further changes to the Irish backstop agreement. However, she still has work to do for things to go in her favour.

The real problem with the current set up is that the UK could potentially end up remaining in the customs union. This is something that MPs do not want to take place.

Over the weekend, Theresa May has written to all Conservative MPs in an attempt to create some unity behind the party. This is because the next meaningful vote is due to take place on 27th February. The main challenge she faces is that of the Irish backstop arrangement. This has been evident in the number of the votes since the start of the year.

With just over a week to go before the next vote is due to take place the likelihood is that the European Union will not back down over the Irish border issue. This could see another loss in the House of Commons next week. Once again, this would highlight the problems Theresa May has in getting her Brexit deal through parliament.

There are a number of potential different outcomes over the next few weeks. I think the most likely outcome will be the UK looking to extend Article 50. This is because it’s unlikely that Theresa May will get enough backing to get Brexit through under her terms.

Clearly, neither the UK nor the European Union wants to have a no deal Brexit. So, extending Article 50 is arguably the safest option, and this could result in the Brext saga carrying on and on. It could be argued that this could help the Pound, as it avoids the risk of a no deal Brexit. However, at the same time it adds pressure to Sterling, as it merely provides further uncertainty during the course of this year.

If you have a currency requirement involving Sterling and the Euro and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Euro weakness could be on the cards, as Catalan trial starts

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We may be looking at Euro weakness in the near term. First, the bloc is currently experiencing the worst growth since 2014. Italy has just entered a recession, while the engine room of the Eurozone, Germany, has just narrowly avoided recession.

Spanish Trial could cause a drop in investor confidence in the Euro

The situation in Spain should be watched closely. The trial of 12 Catalan separatists has begun. They are in court following a Catalan independence bid that was deemed illegal in 2017.

The Spanish government is playing a risky game and only has a slim majority in pursuing this trial. They risk pushing away Catalan separatist parties that have supported the government in a coalition.

This has the potential to cause an early election which could be as soon as April. This would no doubt be a cause for concern amongst investors which in turn could create Euro weakness.

Euro rate forecast: gilet jaunes may weaken euro

There is also a worrying situation in France. There is rising popularity in France for the gilet jaunes, which is combining with a drop in popularity for Macron. The elections in May could prove interesting and will no doubt create volatility in the euro exchange rate.

In addition, there is the situation with Greece, which is seemingly being swept under the carpet, plus the ongoing trade war with the US. The Trump administration is threatening an increase of 25% in tariffs on cars. This would hit the Eurozone hard, particularly Germany.

Quantitative Easing (QE) which is essentially pumping money into an economy to stimulate growth, has recently ended in the bloc. Vast sums, at one stage in excess of €80 million a month, was going into the Eurozone, with seemingly little effect. With QE now cut to zero, it will be interesting to see how the Eurozone copes.

Pound to euro rates: lack of Brexit clarity weighs on Sterling

Unfortunately, the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit is still outweighing the Eurozone’s troubles. The next key date on Brexit talks is 26th February, when May is due to put forward her new proposal for Brexit, hopefully with concessions from Brussels. Be aware that Brussels have consistently said there will be no changes to the current deal. So sterling could face further losses in the short term.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you.

If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in the form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with an FCA authorised company, and one that has been trading for over 18 years, Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

Could Brexit talks later this week help the Pound vs Euro forecast?

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In today’s Pound vs Euro forecast we’ll look at how the Pound has remained in a fairly tight range against the Euro during the last few days. This is because the markets appear to be adopting a wait and see approach to Brexit.

Yesterday, UK economic data published showed a fall in GDP data, as well as a decrease in both Industrial and Manufacturing output.

Typically, this would lead to the Pound falling across the board including vs the Euro. However, the data did not cause too much of a negative movement. Also, the UK’s Trade Deficit widened to -£12.1bn, but again the Pound remained in a tight range. Sterling traded either side of 1.14 during yesterday afternoon and has started the day off quietly so far.

Should I buy Euros now or wait?

Prime Minister Theresa May is be due to address the House of Commons later today and will update MPs on the current round of Brexit negotiations. Many will be expecting to see some progress on the subject, after the close win for the PM recently concerning the Irish backstop arrangement. However, I cannot see much being changed from the deal previously offered by the European Union.

Theresa May appears confident that a deal can be done. With the next debate due to take place on Thursday, we could be in for a rather volatile next few days ahead for the Pound vs Euro rate, which you may want to bear in mind if you’re buying Euros.

Pound vs Euro predictions: Will Article 50 be extended?

EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier has been a bit more positive towards the UK recently. That said, he did also reiterate that it is, “clear from our side we’re not going to reopen the withdrawal agreement, but we will continue our discussions in the coming days”.

These comments can be taken positively for the Pound, as it means that the door still remains open on the continent. However with just less than 7 weeks to go before the deal is due to be done, time is clearly not on anyone’s side. That makes me think that there is a clear case for extending Article 50.

If this takes place, I think this could give the Pound some support. This is because it means a “No Deal” Brexit could be avoided, as well as moving us towards a softer Brexit.

If you would like further information about buying or selling Euros or for a free quote, then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you!

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Euro Rate Prediction: Worrying Times Ahead for The Euro

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In today’s Euro rate prediction, we look at the backdrop that the Eurozone is currently experiencing its worst growth since 2014.

The Euro, although still looking good against Sterling, could be in for a rough year. Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) has tried to ease investor concerns by lauding the current impressive employment figures in the bloc.

However, there are serious concerns. Germany, the engine room of the Eurozone has just narrowly avoided recession. Also, Italy has just entered a recession.

Italy’s growth figures were down by -0.2% in the final quarter of 2018 following a -0.1% decline in the third quarter. Italy’s debt is now second only to Greece. Greece, another huge economic problem for the Eurozone, has seemingly been swept under the carpet.

How will Eurozone cope without quantitative easing?

There are ongoing trade wars which threaten the global economy. In addition, the ECB have just put an end to Quantitative Easing (QE).

QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth, The ECB had been pumping upward of €60 million per month into the bloc, in an effort to stimulate growth.

QE has always been a controversial form of monetary policy, as it amounts to a huge amount of debt and the impact can be limited. With growth being the desired result, it seems the latest QE plan has failed.

Current growth data in the bloc shows the lowest growth figures since 2014. It will be interesting to see how the Eurozone copes without QE, which ended in December.

Pound v Euro forecast: Sterling remains fragile

If it were not for the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit, I think we would be seeing the Pound making gains against the Euro. Unfortunately though, Sterling remains fragile.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is in a very weak position to negotiate. Parliament has stated that it is willing to give Mrs. May’s deal the O.K, provided she gets certain concessions. However, Mrs. May still has to gain these concessions from Brussels, which will be no easy task.

It is important to remember that Mrs. May decided to postpone the first vote in Parliament on her deal. This is because it was common knowledge that MPs were unhappy with the deal in its current form.

Mrs. May then went back to Brussels and was stonewalled. European Commission President, Jean Claude Junker, has stated on several occasions that there will be no changes to the current deal. Essentially, it is take it or leave it.

Best time to buy euros?

The reason for Sterling’s recent spike was due to the dropping probability of a “No Deal” scenario. Morgan Stanley give less than a 5% chance that a “No Deal” situation will occur. “No Deal” is May’s only form of ammunition. With this scenario now less likely than in December, she stands less of a chance of gaining the concessions required.

Many are of the opinion that we may only get a deal at the 11th hour. This is a risky business, considering these are the most important negotiations for the UK in over 50 years.

The other option is an extension while terms are hammered out. An extension could well be beneficial to the Pound. This is because the extended time period would help get deals in place, and take the pressure off getting something in place by 29th March.

Sterling will remain fragile until we get some form of clarity on Brexit.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs.

Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 18 years, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a “no risk” entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA.

If you have a currency provider, take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

Buying Euros? The impact of the Malthouse compromise

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If you’re looking at buying euros, is this a good time? If so, it may interest you to know that, with just over 7 weeks to go before the UK is due to leave the European Union, we are closing in on the final stages of the Brexit talks.

Currently, Prime Minister Theresa May is in Northern Ireland to try and break the stalemate between the UK and the European Union over the current agreement concerning the Irish backstop.

Euro rate prediction: Euro may weaken if Article 50 extended

One thing that will be making headlines in the near future will be that of the Malthouse compromise. This is aimed at rewording the Irish backstop agreement as well as allowing for more time to conclude the negotiations. This would mean extending Article 50 after 29th March.

The proposal is to extend the transitional period until 2021. This would in theory allow enough time for both sides to reach a conclusion. This is instead of trying to race through something which may not work in the next seven weeks. If Article 50 is extended, this may be a good time to buy Euros.

When should I buy Euros?

What is rather interesting about the Malthouse compromise is that it has support from both the Remain and Leave camps. The impact this could have on the pound to euro exchange forecast could be significant.

This is because the reason why Sterling remains under pressure is the fear of a “No Deal” Brexit by the end of March. Although this appears unlikely, there is still a risk that this may happen.

The next vote in the House of Commons is due to take place next week. I think it will be difficult for Theresa May to have got any further improvement on the Irish deal. So, I expect this to be another difficult challenge for the Prime Minister.

UK economy faltering but still growing

During the course of this week, the Pound has dipped marginally against the Euro. This is after UK Services data showed a fall to its lowest level in 2 1/2 years. Although this is above 50 which represents growth, this is still a rather concerning piece of data. This highlights the impact that Brexit is having on the British economy.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when converting Euros compared to using your own bank, then please contact me directly for a free quote. I look forward to hearing from you!

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Is Brexit going to plan and the impact on the Pound vs the Euro?

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After hitting the best rate to buy Euros with Pounds since mid 2017 earlier this week the Pound has once again come under some pressure overnight after the latest Brexit discussions in the House of Commons.

MPs voted 317 to 301 in favour of changing the Irish backstop arrangement which is the deal aimed at avoiding a hard border in Ireland if we crash out without a deal.

However, it appears as though the European Union are in no mood to re-open negotiations and this is why we have seen the Pound slip back against the Euro.

Indeed, European Council President Donald Tusk has claimed that ‘the backstop is part of the withdrawal agreement, and the withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation.’ There have been mixed comments from the leaders in Europe with Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney saying that the Irish backstop is ‘necessary’ even after the vote last night.

However, the vote last night means that at the moment the withdrawal from the European Union is still due to take place by the 29th March and this is why the Pound has fallen against a number of different currencies overnight.

Yvette Cooper’s amendment to delay Brexit if a no deal happens was rejected and this increases the chance that we may still be forced to leave by the end of March.

Personally, I think there is still time to keep on negotiating as the European Union clearly also wants to avoid a no deal Brexit but with the clock ticking this is keeping the pressure firmly on Sterling.

In the short term I think the Pound will continue to struggle to make any real gains so if you’re in the process of sending money to Europe it may be worth getting something organised in the near future.

I have worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 and I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates so if you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.