Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Buy Euros latest: Italian debt hurts the Euro

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EU set to punish Italy for rising debt

If you plan to buy Euros, it might interest you to know that EU finance ministers have agreed to pursue plans to penalise Italy with a fine to the value of £3 billion. Last week, the ministers confirmed that Italy’s high debt contravenes EU regulations, prompting the European Commission to take steps to punish the Italians.

On top of the ongoing budget dispute, Italy appears more likely to leave the Eurozone than anyone else. This is after a proposal to create mini-BOTs, a parallel currency to run alongside the Euro, which can be used by the Italian government to ease debt. This is a controversial method to say the least.

Matteo Salvini, Italian Deputy Prime Minister, stated that “We don’t need to ask Germans, Spanish and Luxembourgish for money. We want to use Italians’ money for Italians.”

The Euro is suffering due to this situation and investors are watching with a keen eye. This does have the potential to weaken the Euro further against the majority of major currencies. It is close to a two-year low against the US Dollar.

Is the Euro going up?

The Euro has suffered of late due to several contributing factors. The latest is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) June assessment of the Eurozone economic outlook, which was perceived to be worse than expected. This due to global demand issues and slowing domestic economies.

Analysts had predicted that the ECB would change the Eurozone’s interest rates before long.

However, Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, recently suggested that policymakers are now likely to wait for a longer period before raising rates. Mr. Draghi said that the ECB have all the necessary tool’s in the toolbox to deal with upcoming issues. In all honesty, there is very little justification for a hike.

Pound to Euro forecast

The decline of Sterling is widely attributed to the increasing probability of a ‘no deal’ Brexit taking place on October 31st. This follows the failure of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal to pass through Parliament, and her subsequent resignation.

Analysts from Danske Bank have said a combination of weaker domestic data, global risk sentiment and ECB policy will play a part in a softer GBP/EUR exchange rate, going forward. There have been fears that “non-Brexit drivers [will] weaken the GBP further over the summer.”

However, Brexit will remain the key driver on GBP/EUR. I am afraid that, until we have clarity on the UK’s political situation and Brexit, the Pound will remain fragile.

If you have a currency requirement, I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade, I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you.

If you have a trade to perform, I will also happily provide a free quote . I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with an FCA-registered company and one that has been trading for 18 years, Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance, I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk, Daniel Johnson.

Daniel Johnson

When to buy Euros update: Brexit dictates GBP/EUR

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In today’s update about when to buy Euros, we’ll see how Sterling has fallen in value against the Euro. This is because Prime Minister Theresa May seems to be destined for failure again, when she puts her draft Brexit deal before the House of Commons in early June.

Mrs. May’s deal has failed on three occasions and it seems there is little change from the previous proposals. I believe that the chances of the deal going through are slim.

Strong opposition to May’s Brexit bill impacts GBP/EUR

Titular heads from within and outside the Conservative Party have made it clear that they are in opposition to the current deal. This does not bode well for the next vote in the House of Commons.

GBP/EUR breached 1.17 recently, yet I was unconvinced that the rally would last. I was of the opinion that the rise was false. This is because it was based on positive talks between the Tories and Labour and getting a deal through, before the European Parliament elections held on 23rd May.

I believed there was little chance of this, and I feel the same about Mrs. May getting a deal through in early June. The Prime Minister has had more than two years to negotiate an acceptable deal, and even at this stage, it seems we are far from achieving that.

Brussels’ stance remains the same. The European Commission’s spokesman Margaritis Schinas recently spoke and stated that there would be no concessions made and the deal offered will remain the same.

The breakdown in talks between Labour and the Conservatives has not helped the Pound, and GBP/EUR now sits in the 1.14s. The recent movements show that the Pound to Euro rate is being dictated by Brexit news.

If we look EUR/USD, it is close to a yearly low. This is as investors seek to put their funds into safe haven currencies such as the US Dollar, in times of global economic uncertainty. Another catalyst is the weak economic performance in the Eurozone.

Is the Euro going to go up?

I think the Pound will remain fragile until we have firm progress on Brexit. Again, we are now below the 1.15 resistance point on GBP/EUR that held strong for 18 months, up to pre-March this year. Every time it was breached, the rates quickly retreated. It will be interesting to see if it holds up, moving forward.

Be aware that if Mrs. May resigns following the deal failing to go through Parliament, we could actually witness Sterling strengthen. This is because the Prime Minister’s leaving could be perceived as positive for Brexit negotiations, despite the fact that political uncertainty usually weakens the currency in question.

Let us pray that former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson doesn’t gain power. He mis-sold Brexit and has tried to undermine negotiations at every opportunity. He is an example of a man with his own agenda, not that of the people.

If you have a currency requirement, I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade, I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty, it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker, if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out, if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place, drop me an email with what you are being offered. I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16 years and FCA registered.

If you would like my help, feel free to email me, Daniel Johnson, at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Daniel Johnson

Euro rate forecast: Will the EUR weaken on the EU elections?

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If you’re interested in a Euro rate forecast, it might benefit you to know that the Euro is currently weaker, as investors brace themselves for more uncertainty, ahead of the European elections. The elections are due on the 23rd May, with the results due for the 26th.

Clients looking to exchange Euros into another currency, or indeed to buy Euros, should be very conscious of what lies ahead. There’s potential for the Euro to find itself in a volatile situation.

There has been a growing expectation that the market is preparing itself for a very uncertain period around the European elections. This is because investors seek to question the future political direction of the Eurozone and the European Union.

The Euro currency is already under pressure in 2019, following global economic concerns. These are embodied by the behaviour of US President Donald Trump, who has threatened the stability of the EU economy, with plans for tariffs on European automotive exports.

When to buy Euros

If you have a transfer to buy Euros, the European elections could see the Euro weaker. However, it will depend on which currency you are holding.

Clients who are holding Pounds to buy Euros, hoping for the market to rise, could end up disappointed. This is because the Pound looks like it will remain under pressure from the uncertainty created by the European elections.

If you’re holding the US Dollar or Australian Dollar and looking to buy Euros, the global events on trade will also be an important factor to consider. This will ultimately provide the markets with some added pause for thought.

The US Dollar is stronger, as the general expectation is that the US economy will come off the best from the trade wars. The Aussie is weaker, since it relies on exporting raw materials to the global economy. Concerns of a weaker economy may see the Aussie less stable.

If you need to make a transfer concerning the Euro, both buying or selling, there are a number of important events in the market to be very conscious of at present. If you wish to discuss some strategy and plans relating to your transfer, then please don’t hesitate to get in touch with me, Jonathan Watson, directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson

Buy Euros: Brexit talks fail, could GDP give Pound a boost?

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In today’s look at when to buy Euros, I’ll tell you how the Pound has had a difficult last few days, after getting close to its best level in almost two years this time last week.

The Pound got close to hitting 1.18 last week, but fell just short, after it appeared as though the cross-party Brexit talks between the Tories and Labour were going well.

However, since the bank holiday weekend, the Pound has fallen by almost two cents. Sterling fell once again during yesterday’s trading session, when Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn claimed that Prime Minister Theresa May has done little to take things forward together.

This has seemingly put on hold any chances of Brexit being concluded in the near future, and is one of the main reasons for the Pound’s losses during the course of this week.

Later today, the UK will announce its latest set of GDP data, for the first quarter of 2019. The expectation is for an improvement from 1.4% to 1.8% year-on-year, so anything different is likely to cause volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates.

Pound v Euro forecast

Clearly, the Brexit uncertainty is still causing problems for the UK’s economy. However, I think owing to the good weather a few weeks ago, this could have had a positive effect on retail sales with consumer spending on the high street.

Therefore, we could potentially see some positive news for GDP and, if so, this could provide the Pound with a boost vs the Euro.

I have worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003. I’m confident that I save you money on exchange rates, compared to using your own bank or currency broker. I can also help you with the timing of your transfer, by keeping you up to date with market movements.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros, and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank, then contact me directly for a free quote. I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Best time to buy Euros update: GBP to EUR breaks over 1.17

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If you want to know the best time to buy Euros, you might like to know that the Pound to Euro exchange rate has rallied higher, breaking over 1.17, on renewed optimism that a Brexit deal with cross-party support could be in the offing. Prime Minister Theresa May has set a deadline of tomorrow for when talks should conclude between the Labour and Conservative parties.

GBP vs EUR rates are likely to see considerable market reaction in these coming days, as the markets attempt to predict the final destination of Brexit. Any positive statements, suggesting that there is a deal that could command a majority in Parliament, could see the Pound rally higher against the Euro.

However, it is worth highlighting that Britain is still likely to be contesting the European elections on the 23rd May, and that could change the political landscape when it comes to Brexit. The Brexit Party, set up by Nigel Farage, is tipped to perform extremely well and this could see heavy losses for the Conservative and Labour parties.

Such a vote could act as a reinforcement that Brexit must be delivered, to the extent that it could pave the way forward for a harder type of Brexit. A strong win for Nigel Farage could also act as a springboard for his party, when it comes to the next UK general election.

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast

UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers are released on Friday, which could act as a market-mover for the GBP EUR pair. There are growing signs that a lack of progress on Brexit is starting to have a negative impact on the economy.

Whilst unemployment is at record lows, which points to a healthy labour market, the worry is that economic growth may be starting to wane. A weaker set of numbers would likely see the Pound fall lower.

Meanwhile, in the EU, the economic picture has been improving of late. Italy has come out of its technical recession, with a better set of growth numbers, whilst France and Spain have also seen a positive jump higher. There had been concerns that Italy could remain in recession for an extended period, amidst recent political uncertainty. The positive growth numbers bode well for Euro exchange rates, going forward.

For more information on the Euro and assistance in making transfers, either buying Euros or selling Euros, then please contact me, James Lovick, at jll@currencies.co.uk.

James Lovick

Pound v Euro forecast: What will happen next with Brexit?

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In this Pound v Euro forecast, I’ll tell you that, with the Brexit negotiations having been extended until the end of October, I am now seriously getting to the stage where I don’t think that Parliament will actually be able to deliver Brexit.

Since December, we have gradually seen the Pound improving against the Euro, and the various Brexit deals that have been put in front of MPs have been repeatedly rejected.

With the 29th March deadline now having passed with the UK extending Article 50, I think the longer this drags out, the less likely that Brexit will actually happen.

The European Union clearly does not want the UK to leave the bloc, as it could potentially mean that other countries may look to do the same. This could lead to the end of the European Union in the future.

This is why I think the EU is not prepared to negotiate much further than what it has previously offered.

The House of Commons have not come up with much of an alternative to the current offerings, and I think that Theresa May’s attempt to get Labour to help with the talks are a waste of time.

Clearly, the personalties of May and Corbyn are unlikely to agree on much, so I cannot see the benefits of trying to cobble something together.

Should I buy Euros now or wait?

In the short term, I think the Pound will continue to come under pressure against the Euro until we get further into the year. So, if you’re hoping to see much of an improvement in Sterling’s favour, then you might be waiting for some time.

Therefore, the chance of the Pound recovering may rely on the Euro coming under pressure in the months ahead.

We certainly have a tricky period ahead for the single currency, with the Spanish general election due to take place next week. Political uncertainty will often weaken the currency involved, so if you have a currency transfer to make, then pay close attention to the Spanish election coming up soon.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank, then contact me directly for a free quote. I look forward to hearing form you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Euro forecast: Will ‘meaningful vote 3’ be confirmed today?

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In today’s Euro forecast, the focus will continue to be the Brexit discussions in the House of Commons. This is because, although today was the previously-expected official Brexit departure date, the details of the UK’s divorce from the European Union are yet to be finalised.

The extension is expected to last for at least 2 weeks, up until the 12th of April. The EU has previously warned that if a deal isn’t in place by then, there will be no scope for further extensions. So, Parliament will be keen to try and rectify the matter as soon as possible.

The discussions today will surround Prime Minister Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement and also alternative options, I would imagine. This is because, earlier this week, indicative votes on alternative arrangements failed to result in a clearly favoured option.

When to buy Euros

The biggest influence on GBP exchange rates at the moment remains this subject. This has been the case for much of the last 2-3 years. If May’s deal is voted in favour of, there will be an extension to the 22nd of May. So, it’s worth following today’s events in Westminster. If there is another confirmed vote on May’s deal then that would be the third, so perhaps it will be third time lucky for her.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate, when you buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So, for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Will the Euro rise? What’s next for Brexit

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If you’d like to know will the Euro rise, it may interest you to know that, on Wednesday 27th, all 8 indicative votes failed to pass in Parliament. This opens up the potential outcomes for Brexit somewhat.

It appears we are stuck in deadlock, with the clock still ticking. Parliament is adamant it does not want to leave without a deal, which was decided by a majority vote of 240. So another solution is required, other than crashing out in two weeks’ time.

Commons Speaker John Bercow recently reverted to a law made over 400 years ago that prevents repeat motions coming back to be debated in Parliament. John Bercow stated that there needs to be a “substantial change” in the current Brexit deal before it can be debated again. We still do not know if Theresa May will be able to get these changes, to bring the third meaningful vote back to Parliament tomorrow.

The current deal would mean the UK would be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union. Remaining in the Customs Union was the only vote last night which came close to an agreement and lost by only 8 votes. If we were to remain in the Customs Union this would ensure a softer Brexit. However, this would limit our ability to negotiate trade deals with other nations.

What is driving change in EUR/GBP rates?

Exchange rates are predominantly driven by Brexit rather than economic data at present, so the direction of the Pound is likely to be determined by tomorrow’s outcome.

German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released this afternoon and came in less than expected. The results were 0.4% MoM and 1.3% YoY, compared to expectations of 0.6% and 1.5% respectively. However, given the current times, this seemed to go unnoticed by the markets and focus remained on Brexit.

If you’d like to discuss the above factors and how they could impact your currency exchange in the short term, please don’t hesitate to get in touch using michelle.fox@purefx.co.uk.

Michelle Fox

Will Brexit be delayed and impact on Pound vs Euro forecast

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In this Pound vs Euro forecast I discuss yesterday’s vote in the House of Commons, when the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal was once again unsurprisingly rejected by a majority vote of 149 MPs. Owing to this result, MPs will be voting later on today whether or not the UK will attempt to leave the European Union without a deal on the 29th March.

The currency markets moved dramatically during yesterday’s trading session, but in the lead up to the vote the markets were muted. This is because the vote did not really come as much of a surprise to the markets.

If MPs vote against a ‘no deal’ later today, then another vote will take place tomorrow on delaying Brexit.

I think this is the most likely outcome and I expect Article 50 to be extended. This would mean the UK will not be leaving the European Union as originally scheduled on 29th March.

I also expect Theresa May to go back to the EU in an attempt to get more amendments made to the current plan. However, the Irish backstop is not yet resolved. Thus, I cannot see how anything she does over the next few days will result in a change in the House of Commons, if MPs are given another vote on the deal in the near future.

The idea of a ‘no deal’ Brexit is not popular either in the House of Commons or the EU, so the likelihood is for an extension. Even Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has said that a Brexit delay is now “inevitable.”

The next step will be then for Parliament to explain why they will look to extend Article 50.

Today at lunchtime Chancellor Philip Hammond will announce the latest Spring Statement. With such uncertainty surrounding Brexit, it is likely that the Statement will be relatively subdued and the focus will remain on the continued Brexit news.

Should I buy Euros now or wait?

With so much uncertainty surrounding GBP/EUR rates, it is difficult to predict what may happen. However, I think once we get a ‘no deal Brexit’ removed from the table, this could provide the Pound with some support.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly. I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Will Pound to Euro exchange rate rise amidst crucial Brexit countdown?

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The Pound to Euro exchange rate has remained in a fairly tight range, trading above 1.16 for most of this week so far, apart from a brief flirtation back into the 1.15s.

It appears as though the currency markets are adopting a wait-and-see approach before next week’s ‘meaningful vote’ in the House of Commons. Clearly, there appears to be a lot of support for the Pound at the moment, so next week’s vote will be crucial in determining the next stage with Brexit.

Politicians are still working behind the scenes to try and sort out a deal and, in particular, looking specifically at the Irish backstop arrangement. This has not sat well with politicians so far.

If the vote fails to go through on 12th March, the following day the House of Commons will be asked to vote on leaving the European Union without a deal. I think Theresa May will lose the first vote and the second vote will result in MPs rejecting a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

A third vote will then take place on 14th March. This will involve MPs voting on whether or not the Prime Minister should seek an extension to Article 50, to prolong the process past the current leave date of 29th March.

The potential extension could involve the UK asking the European Council for an extension until no later than the end of June. That is when MEP elections are due to take place.

Euro could weaken later today following ECB announcement

Later today, the European Central Bank will be announcing their latest monetary policy decision. At the moment there appears to be no appetite for changing interest rates any time soon. If ECB president Mario Draghi adopts a more dovish tone, and if the ECB suggest that they will be keeping interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future, then this could see the Euro weaken later today.

In the next few weeks we could see a huge amount of volatility, but I think we could see some gains for the Pound against the Euro, breaking past last week’s 18-month high. So, if you’re looking at buying Euros and would like further information or a free quote, then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Euro Rate Forecast : Euro Faces Fresh Challenges Ahead

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Welcome to our latest Euro rate forecast. The Euro faces fresh challenges ahead, as the market has to grapple with a number of important economic and political uncertainties.

The currency markets are moved through a number of factors, but two principal concerns are always politics and economics. At present, there is an abundance of the two to make life very interesting for anybody looking to make a Euro exchange.

Political concerns are sweeping across the Eurozone bloc, with no country seemingly unaffected. Some countries are attracting more attention than others, notably France and Italy. A rising tide of anti-globalisation and anti-integration has influenced mainstream politics in the Eurozone, and this is weighing on economic sentiment for the bloc.

Euro rate prediction: Eurozone elections may weigh

Investors are loosely eyeing up the European elections in May, which could see further evidence of this shift in perceptions. The shift in the political outlook reflects an increasing mistrust of the existing order. The recent strength of the Euro is now being threatened by these changes in the political makeup, as investors are concerned over just what lies ahead for the economy of the Eurozone.

On the subject of the economy, investors are grappling with the longer term outlook. At Christmas, a very confident European Central Bank indicated that they would be looking to raise interest rates in the future, whilst they were also looking to reduce their QE (Quantitative Easing) plan.

This helped the Euro to rise, but there’s been recent news that Italy is in a technical recession, while Germany narrowly avoided one. Also, there could be further trouble ahead if US President Donald Trump slaps tariffs on European automotive industries. This has all marked a shift in the economic viewpoint.

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast

The Euro is understandably weaker on these concerns. The next ECB meeting on the 7th March will be a key point to determine the future behaviour of the Euro. Another factor will also be the upcoming unemployment news which is at the end of this week. It does feel like the Euro could hit some further troubled waters ahead.

The next few weeks are going to be extremely interesting, with a possible final conclusion on Brexit, and unfolding developments in Europe. Thank you for reading and please do contact me if you wish to run through or discuss the markets ahead or our service.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson

Could next week’s Brexit vote boost the Pound vs Euro rate?

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In today’s Pound vs Euro rate news, we’ll look at how we’re just 5-weeks from the scheduled Brexit date, with negotiations between the UK and EU beginning to heat up.

Talks have been ongoing this week between UK Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. During this time we’ve seen the Pound climb in anticipation.

Yesterday, the GBP/EUR pair breached 1.15 once again, with the highest level hitting around 1.1538 early in the day. May has confirmed via social media that progress has been made. She’s underlined the need for the UK to see legally binding changes to the Irish back stop that ensure it cannot be indefinite.

It was the issues surrounding the Irish border, and how Northern Ireland will be treated once the UK leaves, that resulted in Theresa May’s Brexit deal being voted against in record numbers.

There is another meaningful vote on her deal scheduled for the 27th of February. However whether this will still take place remains to be seen, as the previous vote was delayed. So I wouldn’t rule out another delay.

This vote is likely to be one of the main drivers of currency movement for the Pound over the next few weeks. If you wish to be updated if there are any major market movements, do feel free to register your interest with me.

Sterling has dropped off this morning after some unenthusiastic comments from Juncker. That said, GBP/EUR remains just below 1.15. This isn’t far from the highest levels of the year (1.1602), which still reflects a positive sentiment from the markets.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate, when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference. So, for the sake of taking two minutes to email me, you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W