Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

How much further will the Euro weaken?

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The Euro has been weakening as concerns mount over Italian debt levels which saw bond yields on Italy’s government debt jump to levels not seen since 2014. With the current yield (return) on the debt at 3.7% at its highest this week, the Euro has weakened quite dramatically which has caused a weakness on the Euro.

The yield is essentially the return investors will get for investing in the debt and the riskier it is, the higher the price that this will rise. Any move above 4% would likely spark fears over other Eurozone economies, a report in the Financial Times today suggests that this level could be a ‘tipping point’ for other concerns.

As a mark of just how far the concerns have come, we have seen this yield rise from below 2% when the new coalition took power in May. This is quite a dramatic turnaround in a short space of time and helps explain why the Euro has been sold off and what troubles could lie ahead in the future.

Economic issues will also take precedence as we get closer to the 25th October, this is the next ECB, European Central Bank, meeting where we will learn of some of the latest news relating to their economic plans. The Euro might well come under some further pressures in the weeks ahead because of this, it might be that the Italian issues force the ECB to scale back some of their plans.

Political concerns in the Eurozone are also around owing to some of the issues remaining in Spain. Expectations for the Euro are likely to remain troubled in the weeks ahead and this might well put more pressure on the single currency.

If you are looking to buy or sell the Euro then we have some very interesting developments ahead for the Euro, as well as its counterpart currencies. An example would be GBPEUR where Brexit appears to be taking shape which has helped the pound to a 3-month high against the Euro. And against the US dollar, continued US confidence over higher interest rates has seen EURUSD fall to 2 month lows.

If you have a position buying or selling Euros and wish for some information on the best timing and strategies to help maximise any currency position, please do contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and discussing this most interesting of currency markets soon.

 

 

 

Jonathan Watson

Will the Pound manage to break 1.14 vs the Euro over this important period for the UK?

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Although there are no major economic data releases for the UK economy today, there could still be movement for Sterling exchange rates owing to some key meetings taking place in Brussels. Today the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab will be meeting with chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels to discuss the current Brexit plan as time to agree on the deal runs out. This comes at an important time as next week on the 18th and 19th there will be an EU summit where Brexit will once again dominate the discussions.

Apart from today there will also be some key talks on Wednesday when Michel Barnier will present a draft political declaration to the EU commissioners and ambassadors. This will represent the last chance for the UK to alter it’s stance before the Summit next week so I expect the talks today and the EU update on Wednesday to have the potential to move the markets.

Sterling has gained in value against the Euro over the past week and its currently trading around its highest levels since early July this year. This has happened as rumours that the contentious Northern Irish issue is closer to being resolved. According to reports the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May is planning to change her ‘back stop’ agreement which keep the whole of the UK in a ‘temporary customs arrangement’ rather than just Northern Ireland which was the original plan.

With this topic likely to be a key talking point this week those following the GBP/EUR rate should be weary of this, as it’s the main driver of the Pounds value at the moment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

What factors are currently influencing the Pound to Euro exchange rate?

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The GBP/EUR exchange rate had a busy day yesterday, as the we saw the pair hit a 2-month high along with seeing a slight sell-off in the afternoon owing to Brexit related updates.

The inflation figure for the UK in August unexpectedly jumped to 2.7% after the markets were expecting to see a figure of 2.4% released. This boosted the Pound’s value as the chances of further interest rate hikes from the Bank of England are supported by this data release, which is considered a GBP positive.

Then in the afternoon after GBP/EUR had hit it’s 2-month high , getting closer to 1.13 at the interbank level we saw much of the earlier gains reversed and was because the UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May rejected the EU’s most recent proposal regarding the Northern Irish border. This matter is becoming a contentious issue that neither side seems prepared to give any ground on, and I expect it to continue to drive the Pound to Euro exchange rate when there are updates.

As of yesterday evening there is a 2-day informal meeting in Salsburg, Austria between the EU members and I expect Brexit to be a talking point. Any updates are likely to result in currency fluctuations so it’s worth being aware of this if you’re planning on making a currency exchange in the short term future.

Later this morning there will be a release of data from the UK in the form of Retail Sales data. Drops from the previous months figures are expected and do get in touch if you wish to be updated regarding this release.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Will Sterling’s advance continue? (Daniel Johnson)

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We have seen Sterling make gains against the Euro of late following comments from Chief Brexit Negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier. He stated a Brexit deal could be realistically put in place in a 6-8 week time frame. Although this is certainly more positive than previous comments there is still concern from investors.

The PM’s job is under threat and political uncertainty never helps the currency in question particularly in the middle of some of the most important negotiations for this country in over 50yrs.

Shadow Brexit Secretary, Emily Thornberry suggested Labour will vote against any kind of Brexit deal as it stands as she believes the likelihood of the Conservatives being able to agree on a deal within the current time scale to be highly improbable.

Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney may have weakened Theresa May’s position in talks last week by stating that if May manages to convince EU members to loosen certain parameters and go with the principles set out in the Chequers plan the economy could expect a boost of up to £16bn. This may not have been wise to announce this to the public as EU negotiators will now be aware of the potential benefits to the UK if Britain gets it’s way.

There has also been news that Greece is finally on a the right track in terms of paying the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with positive economic data. This bodes well for the Euro considering there were real concerns Greece could leave the bloc.

Last week following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision it was confirmed that Quantitative Easing would be ending this year which has boosted investor confidence in the Euro.

I think there is still the potential for GBP weakness as Brexit talks intensify and if you are buying Euros short term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

When will the Euro weaken?

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When will the Euro weaken?

A common question I get asked is ‘When will the Euro weaken?’. After peaking at 1.44 on July 18th 2015 the Euro and GBPEUR has been trending lower as a deal was struck for Greece and also the markets found confidence from a reiteration of Mario Draghi’s promise to do ‘whatever it takes’ to shore up Eurozone finances.

Since then and following the UK EU Referendum result the Euro has risen against all currencies, dramatically so against the pound with current levels at 1.11, peaking at 1.075 in August 2017. Whilst there are events which might see the Euro slightly weaker, depending on which currency you are buying Euros with the going looks set to remain tough for Euro buyers.

GBPEUR Forecast

Euro buyers with pounds have a significant challenge with many unanswered questions over Brexit to resolve before the pound can be back in a position to capitalise. At some point this will happen but it could be many months or maybe years before we see it. With a series of upcoming events to  move rates including some key EU Summits, the rest of 2018 will be crucial.

If you are buying Euros with pounds and wish to be alerted to a particular level, maybe 1.15 or 1.20? Please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of your position and a phone number and we can have a discussion about the best strategy to maximise your position.

Euro weakness ahead?

The key factor driving Euro strength is the expectation that the ECB, European Central Bank will raise their interest rate in the future, currently believed to be between ‘summer’ and the end of 2019. The ECB are also planning to halt their QE, Quantitative Easing program by the end of this year too, which is also driving confidence.

Any deviation from this high expectation could unsettle the Euro and clients interested in GBPEUR might find some important information next Thursday 13th when we have both the ECB interest rate decision plus, the Bank of England too. GBPEUR could be in for some turbulent times on this day. So, if you are looking to buy Euros with pounds or buy pounds why not get in touch for a discussion of the best strategy and rates for the transaction.

On amounts of currency from £10,000 upwards, we can help with a preferential rate and expert strategy to assist in the timing and planning of your exchange. Maybe you are unsure as to what are your options when considering a large volume currency exchange? Maybe you wish to get a second opinion or maybe you you have used another currency broker and wish to check you are truly getting the best deals?

Our specialist service is designed to personally assist you in the safe and smooth passage of your currency at the very best rates of exchange.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson, Associate Director at Foreign Currency Direct plc

jmw@currencies.co.uk

01494 787 478

Jonathan Watson

Turkish debt concerns could cause trouble for the Euro (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – At present there seems to be little hope for Sterling rising in value against the majority of major currencies. The main anchor for the pound is the fact that a Brexit “no deal” scenario is still on the cards, while this is still a possibility I think there is little hope for Sterling to gain significant ground.

There could however be the chance of Euro weakness. If the Turkey situation escalates this could well hit the Euro. There are several large European Banks who are owed substantial sums of money from loans to Turkish business. BBVA, BNP Paribas and Unicredit are among those owed.

The problem is due to the rapid fall in Turkish Lira and the ongoing strengthening of the US Dollar. The loans were predominantly taken out in US Dollar and now due to the currency differential the debts are now substantially more expensive.

Inflation is also rising rapidly and President Ergdogan has been extremely stubborn in regards to trying to counter the effects through a change in interest rates. A central bank is meant to act as a separate entity to the government, but with the appointment of Erdogan’s protege and son-in-law in charge of Turkey’s economy there seems little chance of any counter measures against inflation.

Qatar has just provided $15bn in financial aid which has eased the problem, but if the International Monetary Funds (IMF) needs to get involved this could send shock waves through the market and the Euro could lose value.

If you are sitting on Euros at present and are moving back to Sterling I would take advantage of current levels. I think there is potential for further gains for the Euro due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit, but looking at risk verses reward I would be taking advantage of current levels, we sit at a yearly high for Euro sellers.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

Daniel Johnson

UK & Eurozone Data to impact Pound Euro rates this week and what about Turkey? (Tom Holian)

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We are scheduled for potentially a very eventful day for anyone looking to buy Euros today with the release of a number of key economic data announcements.

We begin the morning with UK unemployment figures released at 930am which have been very promising over the last few months so another positive announcement could provide the Pound with a lift immediately following the release.

Shortly after this release the focus turns towards the Eurozone with the latest set of GDP data due out at 10am for the second quarter.

At the same time Eurozone Industrial Production data is also released and both have been positive lately so if they reach their target or shows signs of growth then this could strengthen the Euro later on this morning.

With a French bank holiday due for tomorrow the volatility today could present some good opportunities before what could arguably be one of the biggest days of the week with UK inflation data published at 930am tomorrow morning.

UK inflation has been a big reason for the Bank of England’s decision to recently raise interest rates so with 2.5% expected tomorrow, which is still well above the government’s 2% target, this could provide further evidence in support for the central bank to look at raising interest rates again and could give the Pound a boost.

Meanwhile the issue in Turkey appears to be causing some ripples across the financial markets with both the Spanish and French stock markets falling during yesterday’s trading session.

European banks have a large exposure to Turkey and if the problem is not resolved soon then this could potentially cause some problems for the Euro providing some good short term opportunities to buy Euros with Pounds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

GBP/EUR – Brexit “No Deal” now a real Possibility (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – GBP/EUR has now hit the 1.10s now sitting at the lowest levels this year. The lack of clarity surrounding Brexit and the real prospect of a “no deal” scenario is hitting the pound hard.

Trade secretary, Liam Fox has stated he believes there is now a 60% chance of a Brexit “no deal”.

I have noticed some worrying market reactions over the last week. One example would be the recent very poor factory order figures from Germany. Keep in mind Germany is the engine room for the bloc so data releases from the region do have an impact on the market. Despite the poor figures we did not see Euro weakness, in fact Sterling continued to lose ground, Brexit uncertainty out weighing the bad news form the Eurozone.

If we also look at  GBP/AUD we can see worrying signs. Despite The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping interest rates on hold this week and a very dovish tone from Governor , Philip Lowe following the decision Sterling continued to fall against the Aussie breaching the 1.75 resistance point. GBP/AUD now sits at 1.73.

I am afraid there is very little reason to be optimistic about Sterling value at present. If you have a trade to perform short term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

Sterling slides against the euro

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Its been an extremely tough period for Theresa May in recent weeks and her struggle continues. This evening an important vote will take place in the commons in regards to keeping Britain in a customs union. Reports are suggesting that Brexiteers could call for a vote of no confidence therefore tonight vote could have a major influence on exchange rates. In anticipation of the vote GBPEUR exchange rates have dropped over a cent throughout the day.

In other news Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney told the press today that a no deal would mean that the Bank of England would have to rethink their interest rate strategy. My personal view is that the Bank of England are unlikely to raise interest rates in August due to all of the uncertainty and this is what the Governor was eluding to today. If it’s the case that the Bank of England fail to raise interest rates I expect the pound will fall further against the euro as the market has already priced in a hike.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year and I have not covered the currency pair you are trading, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn

Multiple resignations hinder Brexit negotiations (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – Brexit Negotiations are key to GBP/EUR rates. Chief Brexit negotiator, David Davis resigned on Sunday  stating Theresa May’s proposal for Brexit is unworkable. This also a view shared by Angela Merkel.

Davis felt like May was giving too much away in the current proposal and so resigned. His resignation was closely followed by Boris Johnson.  The guy is clearly pursuing his own political agenda rather than any genuine care for the future of the UK. The timing of his resignation seems timed to try and cause maximum damage in Brexit talks and in turn Theresa May’s reputation.

It would not be surprising if he makes a move to oust May and go for leadership. It would be nice if there was unification in trying to get Brexit sorted rather than sabotage it.

David Davis has been replaced by Dominic Raab, former housing minister and ex lawyer. He was a prominent leave campaigner leading up to the referendum.

Boris has been replaced by Jeremy Hunt, former health secretary. It seems we  are moving closer toward a softer Brexit which would be deemed a good news for the UK economy. The current lack of clarity on negotiations  and worry surrounding the resignation however has certainly not helped Sterling. Investors are losing faith in the Pound.

With GBP/EUR now potentially in new buoyancy levels it may be time to reevaluate your target rate of exchange if you are a Euro buyer and have to move short term. 1.14 now looks difficult to achieve.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and  I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am  sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

 

Daniel Johnson

Lack of clarity on Customs Union Access continues to hurt the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – Sterling is suffering against the Euro at present and yesterday’s meeting between Angela Merkel and Theresa May will not help matters. Merkel rejected a plan for post-Brexit relations and she went as far as to say it was “unworkable.”

This does not bode well for today’s meeting at chequers where Theresa May will put forward her intentions for Brexit to her cabinet for approval. Chief Brexit negotiator David Davis has already expressed his lack of confidence in the proposal.

This will be the UK’s third attempt at a Brexit customs model. There has been little given away, but I did read the following yesterday:

ITV journalist Robert Peston is out with a post of Facebook where he says that ‘well-placed sources’ revealed Theresa May’s Brexit plan to him and that it’s the “softest possible Brexit”.

He goes into detail, which gives it a definite air of credibility.

“The UK would in effect remain in the EU’s customs union is that there is no other way of avoiding border checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Or at least that is what the PM and her officials now believe.”

This would be positive for the pound if May’s plans were to be accepted, although that seems unlikely at present. I think Sterling has the potential to weaken further.

Germany, the engine room of the bloc displayed impressive industrial data yesterday after four months of decline, which helped bolster the Euro. There are concerns however about Trump’s trade war. The EU should be wary of escalating the situation with retaliatory tariffs.

Although this has the potential weaken the Euro, Brexit remains the key market mover. I think there is the possibility we could be witnessing new buoyancy levels below 1.14.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

Daniel Johnson

Euro suffers at the hands of the ECB!

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has laid down some guidelines as to where economic policy could head in the future and it is not good news for the Euro. Whilst planning on withdrawing the Quantitative Easing (QE) program earlier than expected, the ECB pushed out their interest rate hike expectations further than expected to December 2019.

The market is always eager for clues on when interest rates might rise, this is one of the major driving factors for the currency markets. With the US raising interest rates this week to 2% and the Bank of England also on a path to hike, the Eurozone and the ECB is looking rather behind the curve and the Euro could suffer further as a result.

The Euro has been suffering and any clients looking to buy in the future should be making careful plans around what could ultimately happen, generally speaking the Euro could really find itself under pressure if we see further deviation between what the ECB are doing and the rest of the financial world.

The fact the Euro has not clawed back the losses suffered yesterday, indicates to me that actually it might well lose further ground, particularly if the economic data is not up to scratch. Generally speaking, clients looking to buy or sell the Euro should I feel be making careful plans around the coming weeks to try and help maximise the position.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonny Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

Jonathan Watson