Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

UK & Eurozone Data to impact Pound Euro rates this week and what about Turkey? (Tom Holian)

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We are scheduled for potentially a very eventful day for anyone looking to buy Euros today with the release of a number of key economic data announcements.

We begin the morning with UK unemployment figures released at 930am which have been very promising over the last few months so another positive announcement could provide the Pound with a lift immediately following the release.

Shortly after this release the focus turns towards the Eurozone with the latest set of GDP data due out at 10am for the second quarter.

At the same time Eurozone Industrial Production data is also released and both have been positive lately so if they reach their target or shows signs of growth then this could strengthen the Euro later on this morning.

With a French bank holiday due for tomorrow the volatility today could present some good opportunities before what could arguably be one of the biggest days of the week with UK inflation data published at 930am tomorrow morning.

UK inflation has been a big reason for the Bank of England’s decision to recently raise interest rates so with 2.5% expected tomorrow, which is still well above the government’s 2% target, this could provide further evidence in support for the central bank to look at raising interest rates again and could give the Pound a boost.

Meanwhile the issue in Turkey appears to be causing some ripples across the financial markets with both the Spanish and French stock markets falling during yesterday’s trading session.

European banks have a large exposure to Turkey and if the problem is not resolved soon then this could potentially cause some problems for the Euro providing some good short term opportunities to buy Euros with Pounds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

GBP/EUR – Brexit “No Deal” now a real Possibility (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – GBP/EUR has now hit the 1.10s now sitting at the lowest levels this year. The lack of clarity surrounding Brexit and the real prospect of a “no deal” scenario is hitting the pound hard.

Trade secretary, Liam Fox has stated he believes there is now a 60% chance of a Brexit “no deal”.

I have noticed some worrying market reactions over the last week. One example would be the recent very poor factory order figures from Germany. Keep in mind Germany is the engine room for the bloc so data releases from the region do have an impact on the market. Despite the poor figures we did not see Euro weakness, in fact Sterling continued to lose ground, Brexit uncertainty out weighing the bad news form the Eurozone.

If we also look at  GBP/AUD we can see worrying signs. Despite The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping interest rates on hold this week and a very dovish tone from Governor , Philip Lowe following the decision Sterling continued to fall against the Aussie breaching the 1.75 resistance point. GBP/AUD now sits at 1.73.

I am afraid there is very little reason to be optimistic about Sterling value at present. If you have a trade to perform short term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

Sterling slides against the euro

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Its been an extremely tough period for Theresa May in recent weeks and her struggle continues. This evening an important vote will take place in the commons in regards to keeping Britain in a customs union. Reports are suggesting that Brexiteers could call for a vote of no confidence therefore tonight vote could have a major influence on exchange rates. In anticipation of the vote GBPEUR exchange rates have dropped over a cent throughout the day.

In other news Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney told the press today that a no deal would mean that the Bank of England would have to rethink their interest rate strategy. My personal view is that the Bank of England are unlikely to raise interest rates in August due to all of the uncertainty and this is what the Governor was eluding to today. If it’s the case that the Bank of England fail to raise interest rates I expect the pound will fall further against the euro as the market has already priced in a hike.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year and I have not covered the currency pair you are trading, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn

Multiple resignations hinder Brexit negotiations (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – Brexit Negotiations are key to GBP/EUR rates. Chief Brexit negotiator, David Davis resigned on Sunday  stating Theresa May’s proposal for Brexit is unworkable. This also a view shared by Angela Merkel.

Davis felt like May was giving too much away in the current proposal and so resigned. His resignation was closely followed by Boris Johnson.  The guy is clearly pursuing his own political agenda rather than any genuine care for the future of the UK. The timing of his resignation seems timed to try and cause maximum damage in Brexit talks and in turn Theresa May’s reputation.

It would not be surprising if he makes a move to oust May and go for leadership. It would be nice if there was unification in trying to get Brexit sorted rather than sabotage it.

David Davis has been replaced by Dominic Raab, former housing minister and ex lawyer. He was a prominent leave campaigner leading up to the referendum.

Boris has been replaced by Jeremy Hunt, former health secretary. It seems we  are moving closer toward a softer Brexit which would be deemed a good news for the UK economy. The current lack of clarity on negotiations  and worry surrounding the resignation however has certainly not helped Sterling. Investors are losing faith in the Pound.

With GBP/EUR now potentially in new buoyancy levels it may be time to reevaluate your target rate of exchange if you are a Euro buyer and have to move short term. 1.14 now looks difficult to achieve.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and  I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am  sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

 

Daniel Johnson

Lack of clarity on Customs Union Access continues to hurt the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – Sterling is suffering against the Euro at present and yesterday’s meeting between Angela Merkel and Theresa May will not help matters. Merkel rejected a plan for post-Brexit relations and she went as far as to say it was “unworkable.”

This does not bode well for today’s meeting at chequers where Theresa May will put forward her intentions for Brexit to her cabinet for approval. Chief Brexit negotiator David Davis has already expressed his lack of confidence in the proposal.

This will be the UK’s third attempt at a Brexit customs model. There has been little given away, but I did read the following yesterday:

ITV journalist Robert Peston is out with a post of Facebook where he says that ‘well-placed sources’ revealed Theresa May’s Brexit plan to him and that it’s the “softest possible Brexit”.

He goes into detail, which gives it a definite air of credibility.

“The UK would in effect remain in the EU’s customs union is that there is no other way of avoiding border checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Or at least that is what the PM and her officials now believe.”

This would be positive for the pound if May’s plans were to be accepted, although that seems unlikely at present. I think Sterling has the potential to weaken further.

Germany, the engine room of the bloc displayed impressive industrial data yesterday after four months of decline, which helped bolster the Euro. There are concerns however about Trump’s trade war. The EU should be wary of escalating the situation with retaliatory tariffs.

Although this has the potential weaken the Euro, Brexit remains the key market mover. I think there is the possibility we could be witnessing new buoyancy levels below 1.14.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

Daniel Johnson

Euro suffers at the hands of the ECB!

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has laid down some guidelines as to where economic policy could head in the future and it is not good news for the Euro. Whilst planning on withdrawing the Quantitative Easing (QE) program earlier than expected, the ECB pushed out their interest rate hike expectations further than expected to December 2019.

The market is always eager for clues on when interest rates might rise, this is one of the major driving factors for the currency markets. With the US raising interest rates this week to 2% and the Bank of England also on a path to hike, the Eurozone and the ECB is looking rather behind the curve and the Euro could suffer further as a result.

The Euro has been suffering and any clients looking to buy in the future should be making careful plans around what could ultimately happen, generally speaking the Euro could really find itself under pressure if we see further deviation between what the ECB are doing and the rest of the financial world.

The fact the Euro has not clawed back the losses suffered yesterday, indicates to me that actually it might well lose further ground, particularly if the economic data is not up to scratch. Generally speaking, clients looking to buy or sell the Euro should I feel be making careful plans around the coming weeks to try and help maximise the position.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonny Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

Jonathan Watson

Bearish comments on the UK economy pushes the Pound to Euro rate into the 1.13’s

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Sterling has seen a sell-off in its value this afternoon, after some negative comments from key personnel has pushed the Pound lower across the board of major currency pairs.

Two former Bank of England officials, David Blanchflower and Andrew Sentance have given negative assessments of the UK’s economy at present. The issue surrounding the UK economy at the moment is a lack of productivity growth, as in other major economies such as the US and the Eurozone, Gross Domestic Product (economic output) is increasing at a much faster rate than employment whereas in the UK, it’s stagnant as the figures are running at the same values.

There are also fears that this could get worse if the UK losses highly-skilled personnel as a result of the Brexit and its implications on the UK economy/freedom of movement.

This has come at a time that the Euro is under pressure owing to the political instability surrounding the Italian political situation. Anti-Eu parties in Italy are in the process of forming a coalition government with many expecting to see this take place over the weekend until there was a last minute scuppering of the arrangement by Italian president Sergio Mattarella.

With all that’s going on in the world of politics, do feel free to register your interest with me if you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

Should I buy euros with pounds now?

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With GBPEUR exchange rates performing relatively well in comparison to last year, there is a strong argument to purchase euros now. At present the Euro is under pressure due to Italian politics which is making euro purchases cheaper. Reports are suggesting that anther snap election could take place as early as the end of the summer. The concern for the euro is that the Eurosceptic parties could gain further momentum and therefore try to remove Italy from the euro.

Leader of the League Matteo Salvini, has gone one step further and stated it won’t be an election and in fact another referendum, insinuating if they gain more power and form a government they aim to pull Italy away from Europe.

However we are now one month away from the EU summit and both the UK and EU have made it clear progression needs to be made in regards to Brexit. The main talking point is the customs union and Irish border. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is stuck between a rock and a hard place as she doesn’t want to break up the UK by allowing Northern Ireland to remain part of the customs union but at the same time she doesn’t want a hard border in Ireland. The problem is that she needs to pick one or the other.

Last week Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadker warned the UK and suggested “without the Irish border resolved there can be no withdrawal agreement”. A no deal I don’t believe is an option for Mrs May and in my opinion we would see a snap election before this happened. 

For clients that are buying an asset abroad short term, I can’t see how the June summit is going to help the pounds value, therefore I would look to purchase upfront as soon as possible.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Dayle Littlejohn) on drl@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as soon as I can.

Dayle Littlejohn

Is it worth waiting to buy Euros?

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The Euro has fallen against the US Dollar to its lowest level in 6 months but has remained in a fairly tight range against the Pound.

The US Dollar has improved as the tensions between China and the US in terms of the trade wars appear to be easing. Indeed, GBPUSD rates are also close to their lowest level since December 2017 which highlights that it’s more to do with Dollar strength rather than Euro weakness.

As highlighted in my previous article there are a huge number of economic data releases due out for the UK including Inflation Report Hearings due out in the morning.

Inflation has been a very hot topic for the Bank of England recently and one of their main remits is to keep inflation under control. Therefore, if tomorrow we see that inflation is still too high then this could potentially cause the Pound to improve as this will provide evidence to support an interest rate hike in the UK in the future.

Clearly the Bank of England will not be raising interest rates any time soon after the decision to keep interest rates on hold earlier this month but we could see some support for a future rate hike later this year and this could see GBPEUR rates going in an upwards direction.

However, it is Wednesday that could cause the biggest movement for the Pound vs the Euro as the latest Consumer Price Index is due out for April with predictions for 2.3% so anything higher could see Sterling strength.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying Euros in the near future it may be worth holding out until later on in the week.

If you would like to save money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote.

Having worked in the markets since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound to Euro breaks 1.14 and holds its ground, what factors are likely to influence the rate moving forward?

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It’s been a relatively good day for the Pound against the Euro, with the pair consolidating above the 1.14 mark after struggling to breach it a few times recently.

The Pound hasn’t performed well across the board today, so I think it’s fair to say that the movement is a result of Euro weakness. The Euro is coming under pressure due to political instability in Italy. At the same time central banks are either beginning to hike rates or discussing it at least, whereas there isn’t likely to be a rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) this year based on their comments which is another reason for the Euro falling out of fashion.

To put the Euro weakness into perspective, against the US Dollar the currency has lost almost 4.5% in just the past month.

Although the interest rate hike from the Bank of England didn’t go ahead last week, there are still economists predicting a rate hike later this year which is offering the Pound support.

In regards to the rate I think that there is support at 1.13 in the current market, but it’s going to take some special news to push the pair into new 2018 territory.

There isn’t much economic data out for the remainder of the week that could impact rates, which gives any of our readers planning their transfer next week plenty of time to plan it.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Big day ahead for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have remained relatively flat during today’s trading session in anticipation of a very big day tomorrow with a huge amount of economic data due out both here in the UK and also on the continent.

We start the morning with German GDP and as Germany is the Eurozone’s leading economy this will likely give us an insight into what may happen with Eurozone GDP data at 10am.

However, arguably the more important release will come in between with UK jobs data in the form of both the latest Unemployment rate as well as Average Earnings and both have been very positive in recent months.

UK Unemployment is close to its lowest level on record and with average earnings last month outpacing inflation for the first time in a very long time this was a potential reason to increase interest rates.

Since then the Bank of England have kept interest rates on hold but if the data is strong tomorrow I think this could provide some evidence in support of raising interest rates in the UK.

On Wednesday the Eurozone publishes inflation data which has been very low on the continent for quite some time so another low release could encourage the ECB to continue with their current QE programme.

Overall I think we could see the Pound make some gains during the next two days so if you’re thinking about buying Euros it may be worth keeping a close eye out on what will happen.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

I have worked in the foreign exchange industry for 15 years and I am confident of being able to help save you money as well as helping you with the timing.

For a free quote then contact me by email or calling me directly on 01494787478.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Bank of England keep rates on hold which causes the Pound to fall against the Euro

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UK interest rates were once again kept on hold by the Bank of England yesterday and it was confirmed that the vote was 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold at the same level.

The mid-market fell by 0.5% within a matter of minutes after the release of the news and many think an interest rate hike in the UK will not come for quite some time.

Just two weeks ago UK GDP figures came out at their slowest growth since 2012 and this was one of the main reasons given for why interest rates were kept on hold again. This has caused the Pound to fall against the single currency.

Only just three weeks ago Pound vs Euro exchange rates hit their highest level in almost a year as rumours were that an interest rate hike may be coming but recent poor economic data combined with the central bank keeping rates the same this has caused the Pound to be sold off causing GBPEUR exchange rates to drop.

As we go into next week, Tuesday could be a very volatile day as we have a number of important economic data releases due out. UK unemployment figures are released as well as the latest average earnings data as well.

UK Inflation Report Hearings are also due to be released and this could cause a lot of movement for the Pound vs the Euro so make sure you keep a close eye out for what happens on Tuesday.

Later that same day Eurozone GDP data is due out so we could see a very volatile start to the week for Pound vs Euro rates.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer when buying or selling Euros.

For a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494787478 and asking for Tom Holian when calling or email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.