Tag Archives: dollar
Euro exchange rates have remained relatively stable against the Pound and US Dollar today but have posted strong gains against the Australian Dollar following worst than expected growth forecasts from China. With China being the largest net importer for Australian raw materials and with the Australian economy heavily reliant on its mining sector this is a cause for concern for the Aussie and is likely to create some good opportunities to buy AUD in the coming few days.
Slightly closer to home what data this week may affect the Euro? Starting with tomorrow we have the ZEW economic sentiment survey released at 10:00 BST. The ZEW is a well respected think tank and this data will be closely monitored as it shows the levels of institutional investment sentiment and is a key market confidence indicator. It gives the balance of investors and analysts market confidence of the Euro zone and can directly impact of on the value of the Euro dependent on a positive or negative release. Later tomorrow watch out for a speech from ECB governor Mario Draghi, again his comments can drive the markets – is notoriously optimistic so could lead to Euro strength during and after his speech scheduled for 14:00 BST.
Heading into the rest of the trading week look out for the following:
- Thursday – Spanish Bond Auction.
- Friday – European Trade Balance figures.
To discuss the market trends and current data that might affect your particular currency transfer then please contact the office on 01494 787478. Should you wish to test the service or discuss the contracts we have available then please email me with a brief description of your current trade/requirement and I will happily provide you with a live quote. I can be reached by email at email@example.com
Cyprus Governors have requested a 24 hour extension on their bank deposit proposal, will the ECB intervene?
Governors in Cyprus have requested a 24 hour extension before making their final decision on the bank charge levy on deposits within Cyprus. Should they agree to go ahead with their proposals this is likely to cause further shock waves through the financial markets and could set a precedent for the rest of Europe. Cyprus’s government has proposed to spare small savers from this levy on bank deposits but said it expected parliament to reject the measures needed to secure an international rescue and avoid a default that could cause catastrophic consequences to the Euro zone. As a result the Euro has nosedived falling 3% against the pound and 1.9% against the USD.
To show how serious this situation is in Cyprus and the banks refusing the allow clients to withdraw money, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) have sent a plane containing €1 million from Britain as a contingency measure to provide military personnel with emergency loans. The money will be used for British personnel and their families if cash machines and debit cards stop working, the MoD says.
Situations such as this are very difficult to forecast and shows how difficult it can be to forecast the market. As a specialist currency broker we have a number of tools available to take advantage of spikes as they can often be short lived. Our aim is do maximise our clients positions and to keep them up do date with market trends. Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like to hear more about the currency service we proved then I would be happy to discuss the service in full. We can offer you contracts ranging from standard spot and forwards to stop/loss and limit orders, we also have a rate alert service ensuring we will contact you when a particular rate becomes available.
Anyone looking at buying Euros in the short term may wish to take stock of their current position as these rates may not hang around for too long. Of course the situation in Cyprus will continue to cause a great deal of uncertainty, however those looking at GBP/EUR should also be wary of the Budget in the UK tomorrow. Personally I don’t expect it to have a major impact but should any surprises come from Osborne then expect further market volatility. To discuss the market and your individual requirement then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email firstname.lastname@example.org
Euro exchange rate have continued their recent assault on the currency market bringing levels against the Pound and US dollar to 14 month highs. Will this continue?
To me it is all a little surprising how far the Euro has moved, sure if you look at the fundamentals behind the UK and our European counterparts, yes the data has been poor from the UK but surely we are still in a better position than Europe? One could argue that Mervyn King (head of the Bank of England) its getting his way as he has been open in calling for a weaker pound to improve the UK’s exports, he is also notorious for talking down the UK’s chances of short term recovery whereas Mr Draghi (his counterpart at the European Central Bank) is often far more bullish when it comes to European finances. For me this is somewhat of a facade and I for one feel this pair is due a correction heading back towards the 1.20 territory. Should you be selling Euros, for this reason, and whilst levels are not far from a 14 month high, it may well be worth considering your options – this may include the use of a forward contract allowing you to guarantee your position even if you do not have full availability of your funds.
As for EUR/USD I think this too will see a correction short term moving back towards 1.33. The dollar then may well come under further pressure when the US debt ceiling deadline draws near come April.
If you would like updates on the market, register your interest by emailing me with your particular currency requirements (contact details, currency pair, volume and time frames). I would be happy to run through my current forecasts and to provide you with a quote for your upcoming exchange. I can be reached at email@example.com
Euro exchange rates have remained relatively stable against the pound today but have fallen over 0.5% against the US dollar today as traders and investors still eagerly await the outcome from the US ‘Fiscal Cliff’ – will they come to an agreement before the 31st? In my opinion they will but what is this likely to do to exchange rates? In theory you would expect it to certainly benefit the dollar but this may not be the case. What is really driving the markets still in my view is global confidence and risk appetite, should the agreement go through this is likely to increase risk appetite and with the US dollar still the currency of choice as far as a ‘safe haven’ is concerned, then an increase in confidence may well cause a sell off from dollars to the riskier assets of the AUD, NZD, ZAR and to a degree the Euro. This could in fact cause an increase in demand for the Euro and hence an increase in value. Anyone looking to buy GBP or USD’s with Euros may well see some great opportunities in the short term.
Should you have any thoughts on this blog or would like a more detailed forecast then please do not hesitate to contact me (Michael Vaughan) on 01494 787478. As a specialist foreign exchange broker I would be happy to give my thoughts on the current market conditions to help you make an informed decision with regards to your individual trade. I can also happily source you a commercial rate of exchange to maximise your position and undercut any quote you may have been given elsewhere. To get more information with regards to the service then email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
The Euro has recently significantly gained against the pound and a range of other currencies notably the USD and CAD. In Europe, finance ministers from the 17 countries that use the euro started a two-day meeting in Luxembourg yesterday. The officials are expected to discuss Greece, Spain and other matters related to Europe’s debt crisis.
This came on a day as the euro zone launched its 500 billion euro debt rescue fund in what Euro Group leader and Luxemburg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker hailed as an historic milestone. The fund is known as the European stability mechanism. (ESM) It will hold a first chest of 200 billion Euros when the first instalments of government capital are paid in by the end of the month.
So this fund is on top of the around 150 billion Euros still available in a temporary fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) should countries like Spain & Greece need a bailout.
Yesterday the Euro gained against the pound possibly on the back of the fund or more so because Euro zone finance ministers also delivered a united defence of Spain, saying the country is taking steps to overhaul its economy, funding itself successfully in the financial markets and does not need a bailout, at least for now.
My view is that over the coming days the Euros gains will start to level off as it weakened against the USD for the first time in 5 days yesterday. I feel the pound will slightly rebound against the Euro as many limit orders will fill.
However should Spain request that formal bailout then the potential 500 billion Euros that could be available by the ESM could be wiped away very quickly? As we will be in unprecedented territory it is very difficult to predict long term but I feel the story of the debt crisis in Europe has a long way to go.
If you are holding Euros the uncertainty as to what may occur come the end of this year can be very concerning. The spike for Euro exchange rates that we have recently witnessed has caused many of my clients to carry out forward contracts if they have not had full funds available immediately. If you would like information on this please feel free to email me at email@example.com I can then explain all the options that are available to you.
All of my clients that have found me through this website started reading our posts purely because they wanted more information regarding exchange rates and how to get a better deal than what their bank would offer them. Myself and my fellow authors at www.eurorateforecast.com work for one of the largest currency brokers in the UK. We have been in the industry for a culmination of 39 years so our extensive knowledge is second to none. We strive to make you a saving over all the banks and the savings can be up to 4%. If you are reading this site and you have a requirement to buy or sell the Euro against any major currency you must get in contact to see if we can make you a decent saving on your hard earned money. Surely a quick comparison can do you no harm.
If you would like to compare our rates with that of your bank for international transfers please do email me with your details at firstname.lastname@example.org Just address it to Ben.
I look forward to hearing from you.
This week, as with most, is a busy week for the Euro with plenty of data affecting both euro buyers and sellers. Last week the Euro fluctuated nearly 1.5% against the pound, 1% against the US dollar and 1% against the Australian dollar – showing how much the markets can move and highlighting how important it is to keep up to date with market data to try and time your exchange. This week kicks off with a relatively quiet Monday but the same cannot be said of Tuesday. Beginning with GDP data from both France and Germany early tomorrow morning (06:30 and 7:00 BST respectively). As the two powerhouses of Europe the data should be keenly viewed from anyone with an interest in Euro exchange rates – both results are expecting to show a fall, with France notably expecting to fall back into negative territory at -01% from zero growth shown the previous quarter, and Germany is expecting to fall back from 0.5% to 0.2% – a worry trend for both and again likely to heap further pressure on the Euro. Should the data be as expected I would expect GBP/EUR to move towards 1.28, EUR/USD towards 1.20 and EUR/AUD towards 1.15. Euro sellers could do well to act before this data release, however those with an interest in GBP/EUR in particular may also wish to wait for the release of UK CPI and RPI figures at 09:30 BST. Both expected to show a fall and may curb any Euro losses from the earlier GDP data. Later in the day for those looking at EUR/USD we have US retail sales at 13:30 – expected to show a marked improvement month on month rising from -0.5% to 0.3% and could therefore give support to the dollar.
Wednesday looks to be equally as busy as Tuesday starting with consumer confidence from Australia, no insight as to current expectations so one to watch for AUD/EUR. Importantly we then have the Bank of England minutes released at 09:30, with inflation levels in the UK seemingly under control and Mervyn King openly stating that he thought an interest rate cut would be ‘counter productive’ the report will give insight as to future policies the bank may adopt, will this involve more QE? If the report hints at this we may see a small window of opportunity for Euro sellers against sterling. 09;30 proves to be a busy period in the UK Wednesday as this will also show the release of the latest unemployment figures, due to remain at 8.1% and unlikely to cause to much drama if as expected. Wednesday afternoon will also show US CPI data at 13:30.
Heading into the latter stages of the week Thursday sees the release of UK retail sales at 09:30, it is too early to see the impact of the London 2012 Olympics which I am sure will give a much needed boost to the UK economy, however forecasts for Thursday are relatively poor – this again may cause some Sterling losses on Thursday morning.
To finish the week watch out for German Producer Price Index figures at 07:00 – this measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely seen as an indicator of commodity inflation and generally speaking a high reading is positive for the Euro and a low figure negative. Forecasters are predicting a fall from 1.6% to 1.5%.
As you can see there is plenty of data to cut your teeth into this week and no doubt exchange rates will fluctuate greatly as a result. When deciding the best time for you to exchange it is important to understand the impact this data can have and through utilising the services of a specialist currency broker we can keep you up to date with market trends to try and maximise your exchange. Should you have an upcoming transfer to make and you would like to discuss my views and the service we provide at currencies.co.uk then please do email Mike at email@example.com or call on 01494 787478.
As we head into the beginning of the trading week we have seen the GBP/EUR rates continue in the same fashion as last week pushing on close to the landmark of 1.25 and Euro/dollar push below the 1.29 mark. I feel a trend that is likely to continue, certainly for this week. For anyone selling Euros it is a worrying trend and showing little signs of slowing with the Greek debacle likely to rear its ugly head again. Following the recent elections in Greece the inability to form a Government has heaped pressure back onto the Euro and the possibility of default from Greece becomes ever more likely with many top European bankers considering the possibility of a Eurozone without Greece. Many within Greece are firmly against the terms of the bailout package and should the hard-left Syriza party (polls showed the hard-Left Syriza party on 25.5%, making it the dominant force in Greek politics currently) get into power, the anti-bailout party is likely to stir things up no-end. I for one am still a firm believer that it will remain in the Eurozone for the time being and should Greece leave the zone the process will take years not months, but this is still likely to keep the Euro weak for the foreseeable.
Further problems for the Euro were also seen this morning as Spanish Bonds hit a 2012 high of 6.218% creeping ever closer to the 7% mark that is seen as the benchmark for bailout (as seen by Greece, Ireland and Portugal). The higher the rate on a bond the worse this is perceived for the issuing country as simply the interest returns they re-pay are greater and hence the higher the interest rate the riskier the bond is.
Data of note for those with an interest in the Euro to start the week:
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures from Germany at 07:00 tomorrow. Expected to show a light improvement month on month from -0.2% to 0.1% – could lead to short term Euro strength early if as expected, of course if figures are worse then expect further Euro losses.
Following Germans GDP we have European figures at 10:00 – expected to again show a slight improvement from -0.3% to -0.2% – again could have the same impact as date from Germany.
For those with an interest in GBP/EUR on Wednesday watch out for UK unemployment figures at 09:30 (expected to rise from 8.3% t0 8.4%) could hamper the pounds recent gains).
Should you wish to discuss the market in further detail or have an upcoming currency requirement and you would like to discuss the best contract to suit your transfer ranging from a standard spot contract to a forward, a stop/loss, or a limit contract, then please contact me asking for Mike on firstname.lastname@example.org or call 01494 787 478
The market has been relatively flat today with the pound starting strongly against the single currency in the mornings session but the Euro fighting back this afternoon. For Euro buyers we are still seeing some very good opportunities briefly touching up above 1.23, but what data is likely to affect Euro exchange rates for the rest of the week?
We have a relatively quiet day tomorrow being labour day in Germany, however Wednesday certainly could cause some volatility. We have a number of data releases from Europe, the UK and US but I will highlight those to me that will be of most importance:
09:00 BST we have the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released in Germany – this captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector and as the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, this is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Figures are expected to fall from 48.4 to 46.3 highlighting a contraction and may well cause further Euro losses if the data is as expected.
10:00 BST European Unemployment Rate – with Spain posting record figures of near 25% last week this figure is also expected to be poor and again may affect short term Euro exchange rates.
Nationwide UK house price data – expected to show an increase in prices month on month and with the UK economy heavily dependent on the housing market any positivity tends to drive the pound.
12:45 European Central Bank Interest Rate decision. It is that time again. Regular readers will be aware the impact this can have on the value of the Euro – the market expects rates to stay on hold at 1% but watch out for Mario Draghi’s speech 45 minutes later for an indication as to future European monetary policy.
10:00 BST European Retail Sales – expected to show a small contraction.
13:30 BST US Non-farm payroll data. Can cause a huge impact on the dollar movements as it shows the number of employees on the payroll of all non-agricultural business and is a key indicator as to the performance of the US economy. Figures are expected to increase by 45k from the previous month, should the figure show this I would expect US dollar strength against the Euro Friday afternoon. Should the figures be worse than expected then expect dollar weakness.
As mentioned these the key data sets that anyone with an interest in the Euro should keep an eye on for the rest of this week and all can have a major impact on the short term direction of the Euro. Should you have an upcoming exchange to arrange and wish to discuss the impact these releases may have on your requirement then email Mike at email@example.com or call 01494 787 478
Recent movements on the Euro have been anything but predictable! We have seen rates recently fall to a near 20 month low against the pound but claw back ground against the dollar, but what lies in store for the rest of the week? For those with an interest in the GBP/EUR rates then tomorrow should be viewed with a keen interest. At 09:30 tomorrow morning we have UK GDP data and this will highlight whether the UK is officially in or out of recession. The result appears to be very much on a knife egde with early forecasts suggesting the UK will just keep its nose above water posting growth of 0.1% (this should lend support to the pound). This is too close to call however and should we see negative figures then the UK will be back in recession and I would expect the pound value to fall (good news for Euro sellers). For anyone who is risk averse I would suggest contacting us in advance of this decision to remove the uncertainty from the market, email Mike at firstname.lastname@example.org to get the best exchange rates in the market.
What next for EUR/USD?
The UK is not the only major economy to have an important GDP release. On Friday we too will see the release of the US GDP data and inbetween we have the Federal Reserve releasing their interest rate decision tomorrow evening. Expectations are for interest rates to remain on hold and for a marked improvement in US GDP, should this happen where will the market head? Personally I feel the USD is slightly undervalued and I would expect a move back towards 1.30 in the short term. I also feel the increased confidence the market may get from better US data could lead to a move towards riskier currencies (e.g ZAR, AUD and NZD) and these may well strengthen against the Euro.
Should you wish to discuss the service we can offer in more detail and would like to explore the various contracts we can offer then email Mike at email@example.com and I will happily explain the contracts that we can offer, ranging from Spot, forward, stop/loss and limit contracts.