Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Strong end to the month for Pound vs the Euro (Tom Holian)

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The Pound has had one of its best performing weeks of the year so far hitting 1.15 on Thursday after the Bank of England announced a 7-2 split in favour of keeping interest rates on hold in the UK.

Inflation is still way above the target of 2% and although we have seen it falling recently this still causes a big concern for the central bank as one of their main responsibilities is to control inflation levels.

With average earnings this week outpacing inflation levels for the first time in a long time this has given the Pound a much needed boost against the single currency.

As average earnings are increasing and unemployment has fallen this is likely to help push up both Retail Sales and UK GDP in the future.

Next week the latest revision of GDP for the final quarter of 2017 is due to published so if this is revised up I think we could see a strong end to the month for the Pound vs the Euro.

Although inflation has fallen, as average earnings are strong combined with low levels of unemployment this could put pressure on the Bank of England to look at raising interest rates.

The central bank last raised interest rates prior to the end of the year to push rates back up to where they were prior to the EU referendum. At the moment there is a strong chance of another rate hike coming potentially by May and this is another reason for the increase in the value of the Pound vs the Euro.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that not only am I able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holain teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

EUR Forecast – Support for the Single Currency Weakens During Wednesday’s Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR started the week extremely positively, making gains against both the Pound & USD.

That’s positive spike has cooled today, with the single currency failing to make further inroads against either currency.

Sterling found support at 1.1236, moving back towards 1.13 by the close of European trading.

It was worse news against the USD, with the greenback finding plenty of support during afternoon trading. The EUR dropped alarmingly from 1.2405 at its high earlier today, to a low of 1.2269.

It’s been a volatile week for the EUR, following the much publicised crash in the global stock markets. Whilst there is no direct correlation between the stock markets and currency exchange rates, any shift in global financial conditions can have knock on effects for an economy and ultimately this will impact the value of their currency.

The single currency had found plenty of support earlier this week, following some positive Services data. This was coupled with EU commissioner Michel Barnier’s comments regarding Brexit negotiations and how the UK would not be able to work outside of the EU’s laws, whilst expecting not to have any restrictions on trade.

These comments put pressure back to Sterling, with the EU clearly taking a hard line stance as we head into a crucial period of the Brexit talks.

The EU seem to be in the driving seat and this in turn is causing investors to leave their funds in the EUR, which is seemingly turning into a more stable and “safer haven” currency than the Pound.

This complete turnaround in market perception since the EU referendum result is portrayed in the recent economic data releases for each economy, with the UK’s downturn the complete opposite of what is evidently, a thriving Eurozone economy.

Yes the EUR has weakened slightly from the dizzy heights it achieved late in 2017 but the outlook for the Eurozone remains far healthier than that of the UK’s, which is continually dwarfed by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfers to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

Sterling hits best rate to buy Dollars since EU referendum but remains flat against the Euro (Tom Holian)

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The Pound has had a mixed end to the week against the Euro dropping to the 1.11 levels before ending the week in the mid 1.12s on the Interbank level.

The single currency is now trading at a 3 year high vs the US Dollar and this strength has carried on vs the Pound as well.

News from Germany is that the coalition talks have gone very well and this has supported the Euro but we have not seen huge moves in favour of the single currency vs the Pound as investors appear to be waiting to see how the Brexit talks will go when they resume in a few weeks time.

At the end of the week, it has been reported that both the Spanish and Dutch finance ministers have agreed to try and aim for a Brexit deal that will keep the UK very close to the European Union. This is one of the likely reasons why the Pound has maintained its level against the single currency as the Pound has rallied to its highest level to buy US Dollars since before the EU referendum in 2016.

Although the reports are that it’s just two of the 27 members who have proposed this happens it goes to show that things are looking a little more positive on the subject of Brexit compared to early December.

Also, during the course of the week Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent suggested that an interest rate hike may be coming in the future and this has supported Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote compared to using your own bank or simply want to compare rates to buy or sell Euros against your current foreign exchange provider then feel free to get in touch for a free quote. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help save you money on exchange rates.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

A busy week for pound vs euro exchange rates (Dayle Littlejonh)

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It has been an action packed 48 hours for GBPEUR exchange rates with Central levels of exchange fluctuating two cents. The rise in exchange rates came from Sir Ivan Rogers comments that Senior EU leaders believe Theresa May is bluffing and will eventually back track to stay part of the single market. This boosted investor confidence and the pound rose in value.

Wednesday evening, MPs within the house of commons voted that Theresa May could start Brexit negotiations within Parliament. This means in the upcoming weeks MPs will debate the publication that Theresa May released yesterday. To make it clear this does not mean Theresa May has the approval to invoke Article50 in March.

Yesterday was Super Thursday for the UK and this is when the Bank of England release their latest interest rate decision, minutes from the latest interest rate decision, quarterly inflation report, , update to the asset purchase program and this is followed up by a speech from Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney.

It was widely anticipated that Mark Carney when he delivered his speech just after midday, would hint towards an interest rate hike if inflation continued to rise however this never materialised. Off the bank of the interest rate decision the pound dropped like a stone.

An hour or so later Theresa May published her white paper and most of the information we already knew. However Theresa May did state that she wants the UK to cooperate on regulation of financial services and elements of single market membership are still on the table. Leaders within the European Union have made it clear that Theresa May cannot pick and choose therefore the bill did not help the pound recover against the euro.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn

Further falls expected for GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

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Last week GBPEUR exchange rates dropped 2.2 cents to a two month low. To put this into monetary terms a €200,000 purchase is now £3,300 more expensive.

This Tuesday UK Prime Minister Theresa May will give direction to the UK public in regards to Brexit. National newspapers are anticipating she will announce the UK is prepared to leave the single market, so the UK can end the agreement of free movement of people.

The pound crashed at the beginning of last week after comments made by Mrs May on Sky news. She stated the UK will be leaving the EU so the UK can decide it’s own rules in regards to immigration. Furthermore, with her next breath she stated she wants the best deal for the UK in regards to trade. EU leaders have made it clear, if the UK wish to remain part of the single market they must accept free movement of people.

Mrs May’s speech on Tuesday should give further clarity and therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPEUR exchange rates fall further.

With the pound looking like it’s going to fall further against the euro, euro buyers within the next 0-6 months may wish to take advantage now.

If you are waiting for your sterling to become available we offer a forward contract which allows you to secure exchange rates now but you pay later.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn

Will the pound increase or fall against the euro? (Dayle Littlejohn)

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Three months ago GBPEUR exchange rates were fluctuation around 1.10 and many leading banks were suggesting GBPEUR exchange rates would reach parity (one for one) at some point throughout 2017. However events materialised and GBPEUR finished the year in the 1.17s.

The High Court’s ruling that UK Prime Minister Theresa May does not have the power to Invoke Article50 and therefore leave the single market consequenntly improved the value of sterling. Couple this with the ECB’s decision to extend the bond buying scheme also known as Q.E, the euro devalued and exchange rates reached highs of 1.20 throughout December.

The question now is where next for GBPEUR exchange rates? Well we know that the UK PM appealed the High Court ruling at the Supreme Court and the verdict will be released this month. I expect this story to have a major influence on exchange rates for the foreseeable future.

Depending on the outcome I expect the pound to either gain value against the euro and exchange rates could rise above 1.20 for a period, if the Supreme Court rule in favour of the High Court. On the other hand if the Supreme Court over turn the decision exchange rates could fall to levels we become accustom to in October (1.10-1.12).

Even though I expect the Supreme Court decision to dictate the direction of exchange rates, there will be spikes in the market off the back of economic data releases.

Economic releases that I expect to impact exchange rates this week are:

  • German Unemployment and inflation numbers Tuesday morning
  • UK Construction data Wednesday morning
  • Eurozone Inflation Wednesday morning
  • US Non Farm payroll and Unemployment rate Friday afternoon.

How can I help you?

The currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients rates of exchange that they won’t be able to achieve by using their own bank.

Property purchases and sales are my area of expertise, therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.

Feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn

Impact on euro exchange rates due to the US Presidential Election (Dayle Littlejohn)

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With the US Presidential Election in full swing and both candidates neck and neck I expect euro exchange rates to fluctuate in the upcoming days. 

Especially in a volatile market speculators are going to be cautious whilst trying to make money. Depending on the result if Democrat Hilary Clinton gains power there is a chance the euro could weaken slightly, due to speculators selling their euros to buy US dollars. However if Republican Donald Trump wins the race to the White House I expect to see a US dollar sell off to buy euros.

As for GBPEUR exchange rates we have seen a slight rise due to the UK High Court decision last Thursday. With the Government now needing the approval of Parliament I expect Brexit negotiations to take longer and therefore that’s why the pound has made a slight gain. However for euro buyers I wouldn’t hold you breath in anticipation of rates above 1.15 anytime soon.

If you are reading this website in order to find out information in regards to buying or selling the pound I can help you achieve the best exchange rates on the market whilst keeping you up to date with economic information. Its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading therefore I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** IF YOU ARE ALREADY USING A BROKERAGE TO BUY YOUR CURRENCY IT WILL TAKE TWO MINUTES TO EMAIL FOR A COMPARISON AND I AM CONFIDENT I WILL BEAT ANY PRICE YOU ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING  **

Dayle Littlejohn

Will GBPEUR continue to fall? (Dayle Littlejohn)

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Less than 12 months ago GBPEUR exchange rates were fluctuating above 1.40. At the end of trading on Friday GBPEUR finished in the 1.11s thats a fall of 29 cents in 12 months.

There are many reasons why rates have plummeted but one in particular in the headlines daily is the Brexit. For people that are buying euros in the future the golden question many ask is over time will rates reach highs that we were a custom to 12 months ago?

Personally I believe GBPEUR exchange rates are going to get worse before they potentially get better. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has announced that Article50 will be triggered in March and therefore the UK will start the process of leaving the EU which is set to take at least 2 years.

A major talking point this week has been will the UK opt for a hard or soft Brexit, the major difference is that the UK will not have free access to the single market if they opt for a hard Brexit. Towards the end of the trading week Donald Tusk announced that its a hard Brexit or no Brexit which is forcing Theresa May’s hand.

With many of the leading Banks forecasting that GBPEUR will continue to fall to parity by 2017 and I have to agree. If I were buying euros within the next 6 months I would cut my losses and purchase the next time the pound spikes against the euro. If you do not have all of your sterling available you can still purchase your euros now by using a forward contract and you pay later for it.

For euro sellers buying the pound, I would get in contact today let me know your timescales and I will monitor the market for you and keep you up to date with market movement.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year and I have not covered the currency pair you are trading, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Dayle Littlejohn

Will the EUR Continue to Strengthen Against Sterling? (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has been riding the crest of a wave against Sterling for some time now and even before the now infamous Brexit result, the single currency had made significant gains against it’s GBP counterpart, with GBP/EUR rates dropping from north of 1.40 down towards 1.28. It made further inroads before the markets started to factor in a Remain vote in June’s EU referendum but when this result did come to fruition, we saw aggressive Sterling sell-offs and this caused the Pound to nosedive, hitting a low of 1.1456.

Sterling did finds some support around this level and following some better than expected unemployment data & Retail Sales figures last week, GBP/EUR moved back above 1.16 at this week’s high. Despite all the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy at present, EUR sellers need to be aware that we are unlikely to see one way traffic on the pair. The economic problems that many of the key Eurozone economies faced have not disappeared and with the recent focus on the 360bn debt held by Italian banks and the well documented problems facing Greece and its debt repayment structure, I would personally not be prepared to gamble on another major jump in the Euro value.

EUR sellers currently sit close to a three year high and this a position I would be keen to protect, ahead of what is likely to be a turbulent and unstable time for the currency markets.

If you have an upcoming EUR or other currency requirement and would like to discuss the current market conditions & forecasts ahead of your exchange, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, you can register your contact details through this blog or email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Matt Vassallo

EUR Benefitting From Sterling’s Demise (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has made further gains against GBP during Wednesday’s trading, as the Pound continues to slide following a poor run of economic data. Sterling’s woes have been well documented following the UK’s decision to exit the EU but with no clearer picture of when and how we will facilitate this move, the markets continue to react negatively due to the uncertainty this is creating.

It seems as though the current levels on GBP/EUR rates are a direct result of this, as the EUR continues to gain ground against its GBP counterpart whilst losing value against most of the other major currencies. This to be indicates that the current value of the EUR against GBP is a fabricated valuation, due to a complete lack of investor confidence in the Pound. This trend will not last forever and with so much uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone and how its economy will react to losing such an integral member of the EU, along with on-going concerns surrounding the Greek and Italian economies in particular, EUR sellers should be looking to take advantage of some of the best rates they could have achieved over the past three years.

Looking ahead and all clients with a short-term EUR positon will be looking towards Friday’s Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. This is always a key release and any figure outside the expected 0.3% growth is likely to cause additional movement on EUR exchange rates.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements ahead of your transfer, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Matt Vassallo

Andrea Leadsom withdraws from the Leadership race and the impact on Sterling Euro rates (Tom Holian)

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After a torrid last fortnight with Sterling Euro exchange rates having dropped by as much as 12% from the high to low during this period the markets experienced a very brief increase when Andrea Leadsom announced her withdrawal from the leadership campaign.

This caused Sterling to rise very briefly against the single currency as it means we may now have a replacement for current Prime minister David Cameron in the form of bookies favourite Teresa May.

The stability and certainty could help to end Sterling’s recent poor run against the Euro. However, later this week the Bank of England announce their latest interest rate decision and we could see a change in monetary policy.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has spoken out a number of times against the Brexit prior to the EU referendum vote and since the announcement he has suggested that the central bank could look at cutting interest rates or even increasing the amount of Quantitative Easing used by as much as £250bn.

The UK economy has wobbled since the Brexit vote and business confidence is at its lowest level for 3 years and clearly foreign investment has decreased during the run up to the vote and also since June 23rd.

You have to ask yourself if you’re a foreign investor in UK business why would you invest in a British company at this time whilst there is so much uncertainty both economically as well as politically?

The is good news for anyone looking to sell Euros with rates now at their best level to buy Sterling since November 2013.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

The UK Goes to the Polls for the EU Referendum (Ben Fletcher)

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The long awaited Referendum is finally upon us after nearly half a year of canvasing and being on the campaign, the end is in sight. Throughout today there will be information dripping from exit polls and it is no secret that major hedge funds have paid for their own polls to be completed.

No matter which side looks like they may take the lead on thing is for sure is that there will be major market volatility for the whole day. If there is the potential for a Leave victory then it is a general consensus that Sterling could drop a significant amount. Assuming the Remain camp who the bookies believe to be in front complete the victory Sterling could rise to levels not seen for a significant time against major currencies.

There are predictions for Sterling/Euro to fall into Parity from HSBC if there is a Leave victory. If the news starts to come in that there could be a Leave vote the markets could start to price it in and start to drop.

My main suggestion on a day like this is to make sure you’re in a position to move at any point, the rate will jump around and there could be the biggest movements the markets have seen in a very long time. Capitalising on the rate when it has moved into your position could enable you to attain major gains.

If you would like any further information with regards to the market today and how it may affect you please send Ben Fletcher an email at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to help you fully understand today’s events.

Ben Fletcher