Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Pound to Euro Forecast – Are the Brexit talks concluding?

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The Pound has so far this month experienced a lot of movement against the Euro touching 1.15 on a couple of occasions before briefly dropping again.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is being massively driven by the Brexit talks and with the sentiment having been shifting between positive and then negative recently this has been the reason for the volatile movement so far during November.

Up until last Friday morning the talks were going the right way but then Transport Minister Jo Johnson announced his resignation and his reason given was that he was not happy with the current Brexit proposals being offered.

Indeed, he even went on to say that he thinks the UK should hold a second referendum but clearly under Theresa May’s stewardship this will not happen as she has confirmed on a number of occasions previously.

Over the last couple of days the Pound has been edging up against the Euro as the talks are getting closer to concluding. Theresa May has even claimed that although the talks have been very tough the UK and the European Union are in the ‘endgame.’

Today, Theresa May will be meeting with the Cabinet at Downing Street to discuss the current plans and suggest the best way to sort out the Irish border issue.

According to some sources a deal will need to be done in the next twenty four hours if we are due to have another EU summit so depending on how today goes this could have a big impact in the short term value of the Pound against the Euro.

If the talks go well this will presumably allow for another EU summit to take place which means getting closer to the Brexit talks being concluded. Time is clearly running out so the pressure is mounting and Brussels will only hold the summit if an agreement can be reached on the Irish border issue which remains the key sticking point.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates so for a free quote please email me directly or call me on 01494787478.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound v Euro forecast for the remainder of 2018

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For people that are planning a pound into euro conversion or a euro into pound conversion, now is the time to make a plan as I believe in the upcoming months we are going to experience major volatility for the currency pair. Today UK Prime Minister Theresa May travels to Salzburg for the first of three summits which will take place over the next 2 months. Reports are suggesting that the current summit is going to be fairly informal, however I am actually expecting a positive outcome and for the pound to improve against the euro.

My reasoning is that the Conservative party conference on the 30th September is going to be a tricky event for the PM. At present 50 Conservative MPs plan to vote against the Chequers plan, therefore I actually I expect the EU will get behind it in a bid to bolster the PMs position as its clear to see the UK and EU do want to finalise a deal eventually. However I don’t believe its plain sailing for the pound.

There is still a fair amount that needs to be finalised before a deal can be reached. For example, will the Irish border use technology in a bid to stop a hard border? Unfortunately I don’t expect an agreement until the final hour and therefore I expect investors to sell their sterling positions, quite simply because of the thought of a no deal and therefore I expect the euro to make gains against the pound in the upcoming 8 weeks.

After the extraordinary summit in November, if my predictions come true and a deal is reached, I expect a significant rally for sterling. Therefore for clients buying sterling with euros, I believe you have 8 weeks and once the 8 weeks is over, the fantastic gains you have experienced because of the referendum will start to diminish.

If you are converting pounds into euros or euros into pounds in the upcoming months, feel free to email me with the reason for your transfer (company goods, property purchase) and the timescales you working to and I will respond with the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Dayle Littlejohn

EU summit to influence GBPEUR exchange rates

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Today was the start of the EU summit in Brussels and no surprises the commentary coming from the EU is that progress needs to be made. Irish leader Leo Varadkar told the press that the progression made so far is disappointing and expected other fellow leaders to send the same message. However, UK Prime Minister Theresa May has responded by suggesting very good progress has been made but with the pound falling in value throughout the day, it appears investors agree with the Europeans.

Tomorrow the all important Brexit talks are set to begin and the UK Prime Minister is set to brief the 27 other leaders. This will be the last meeting before October, when the UK should technically be finalising a deal. At present it doesn’t look like Theresa May’s address will outline any new information therefore I expect this to provide further uncertainty and the pound to fall further against the euro.

Also tomorrow, the UK will release their latest GDP numbers. The only saving grace for GBPEUR exchange rates is that the Bank of England have hinted towards an interest rate hike as early as August, therefore the GDP numbers will be watched closely by investors. If the revised quarterly numbers exceed expectation you would think an interest rate hike is likely. However, I find it difficult to see how GDP has risen therefore I expect the release to be 0.1%. Anything lower could cause a major drop in GBPEUR exchange rates.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year and I have not covered the currency pair you are trading, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn

EU Withdrawal Bill and the impact on Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

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As predicted in my previous article the Pound started the week off on the back foot against the Euro after lower than expected Industrial and Manufacturing Production data.

Manufacturing fell by the biggest monthly drop in almost 6 years by falling 1.4% during April.

UK Trade Balance figures also showed a big drop with the trade deficit widening to £9.7bn from February to April. Combined with this we saw the latest NIESR GDP data which showed a fall to 0.2% which was lower than the expected figure of 0.3% highlighting evidence of a slowdown caused by the Brexit uncertainty.

With the EU Withdrawal Bill due to be debated in the House of Commons over the next couple of days we could be in for a very volatile period for GBPEUR exchange rates depending on the outcome of the result.

Theresa May is likely to be supported by the DUP as MPs will be debating 14 changes to the Bill made by the House of Lords recently. However, some Tory back benchers may not support the changes and this could cause a problem for the government and therefore this could be reflected negatively with Pound vs the Euro exchange rate.

If May does not win the vote this could mean that Theresa May does not have full control of the negotiations going forward and with a key EU summit due to take place on June 28th this could really cause problems for the Pound.

Therefore, if you’re considering making a currency transfer then keep a close eye out on GBPEUR exchange rates during the next couple of days as we could be in for a lot of movement.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I work for one of the UK’s longest established currency brokers and I’m confident I can also help you with the timing.

Email me directly

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

EUR Forecast – Brexit Transition Deal Almsot Agreed (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR lost some ground against Sterling yesterday, following reports that a Brexit transition deal has all but been agreed.

GBP/EUR rates dropped to 1.1434, before recovering during afternoon trading. It moved back below the 1.14 threshold and has held firm this morning, with UK inflation data doing little to boost Sterling’s value this morning.

The EUR has for the most part been very well supported of late, following some bullish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB). It’s President Mario Draghi confirmed that the central bank intend to wind up their current monetary policy programme by the end of this year, news which indicates that the Eurozone economy no longer needs to be supported by an external bond buying scheme.

The ECB have remained steadfast in their commitment to their Quantitative Easing (QE) initiative over recent months, which has helped support the Eurozone economy in recent times. The Eurozone’s economic output has exceeded almost every expectation and this has allowed the EUR to sustain the gains it has made against most of the major currencies.

Yesterday’s developments however, do indicate that it may be time to consider any EUR sell positions, particularly for those clients looking to buy Sterling.

The UK’s chief Brexit negotiator David Davis and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier, confirmed that a “decisive step” had been made and investor confidence in the UK economy immediately surged.

Looking ahead and we’ve got a busy few days ahead. Tomorrow we have the official UK Unemployment rate, followed by UK Retail Sales figures and the latest BoE interest rate decision and monetary policy statement on Thursday. We also have Eurozone Manufacturing data released that day but it likely that the markets focus will be on the EU summit, which will dominate the majority of headlines. With the next phase of Brexit talks underway on Friday, during the second day of the summit, it is likely that there will be a lot volatility on EUR exchange rates over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming Euro currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

Will David Cameron be able to agree a deal with the EU and the impact on Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

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Prime Minister David Cameron is currently working hard on a deal at the EU summit being held in Brussels in order to avoid Britain leaving the EU.

The draft agreement which involves curbing migration and safeguarding our financial system has not yet been agreed and I think whatever happens over night I do think that Cameron will get most of his wishes but like with any deal it won’t be perfect.

The PM actively wants the UK to stay in Britain and he would like to end the week with a positive result which means we could see a referendum called as early as June although he does have until the end of 2017 to announce the date.

Unless something catastrophic happens with the talks I think Cameron will come away with a positive result and if this happens we could see GBPEUR rates react extremely quickly and break above 1.30+.

The European Central Bank minutes showed that the Eurozone is worried about its recovery which could stall owing to the global slowdown.

There is a chance that the ECB could look at further Quantitative Easing in March and if this happens I expect the Euro to weaken as it may demonstrate that December’s extension may not have worked as well as planned.

Eurozone inflation has continued to fall since December 2015 and although global inflation has declined owing to the fall in oil prices this is still a big concern for the European Central Bank.

I predict that we’ll see a big movement for Sterling Euro exchange rates overnight depending whether the deal is agreed between the UK and the EU.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively call me 01494-787-478 and ask for Tom Holian for a free quote.

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

The Single Currency Fights Back

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After months of anguish and dispair for members of the EU, has the tide finally started to turn or is this just another false dawn for the single currency?

Friday has seen some of the most significant moves for the euro since the turn of the year and has brought some much needed confidence back to the markets. We have seen the EUR gain almost a cent on GBP and a staggering 2 and half cents against the USD by close of European trading. Personally I felt this current spike  was long over due and it did feel like we had almost reached a tipping point with confidence so low in Europe. Quite frankly things couldn’t of gotten much worse from an investor standpoint, without the eurozone going into a unstoppable spiral of decline.

These market movements have come about primarily due to the current EU summit and the annoucnement by leaders that they have in principal agreed to use the eurozone’s bailout fund to directly support struggling banks. This has been viewed as somewhat of a breakthrough by investors and has given the euro a significant boost across the board. We have also heard Mervyn King give a damning verdict on the UK banking sector, which is also helping the euro gain against sterling.

This news has boosted global market confidence and as such investors have pulled funds away from the ‘safe haven’ USD and this is one of the reasons it has weakened so significantly against the EUR.

Whether this agreement is sustainable only time will tell but it is certainly a step in the right direction as far as the powers that be are concerned. If you have an upcoming currency transfer that you would like to discuss, or are keen to be kept up to date with all the latest market information then pleas feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.

Matt Vassallo

A Good Time To Buy Euro?

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 I dont know what is wrong with the site this afternoon as my very lengthy and well researched post about why now is a good time to buy Euro just got wiped!!!! Gremlins in the system!

In essence sterling has spiked massively against the Euro this afternoon and as I have said in other posts in the current climate any opportunity to buy Euros north of 1.17 to me represents a good buy given sterling’s vulnerability. There is the possibility that the ECB may cut rates tomorrow which could weaken the Euro further, however if there are other measures announced such as loosening sovereign collateral obligations required for loans from the ECB, then these may help create confidence that a solution to the Euro crisis can be found.

In my view the EU summit will find a solution (even if it only solves the problem in the short term) to avoid the imminent collapse of the Euro (far too much political and capital investment to let the project fail)- given the noises made by Merkel and Sarkozy, the fact the US Secretary to the Treasury Tim Geithner is in Europe at the minute, and the recent combined action by central banks to improve Dollar liquidity I think the markets will be a little calmer next weak and the Euro will settle down. Therefore I am in the buy now camp….let’s see what happens and whether or not I am eating my hat next week rather than mince pies!

If you have an upcoming currency transaction to carry out feel free to contact me directly cmg@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get you both a great rate of exchange and a fantastic level of service.

Colm G

Breaking News Updates For Sterling Euro Rates And EU Summit

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As mentioned last week key players in the Eurozone crisis have downplayed the importance of the summit to try and dampen expectations that an all encompassing solution will be announced.  At the time of writing the EU leaders are just arriving so expect some volatility on various currencies.  The summit will aim to solve the Greece problem, bank exposure, and how the EFSF will be used but I think there is likely to only be some general broad agreements on parts of the 3 issues.  Sterling euro rates have been pretty range bound in the last two weeks but if no solution is reached the Euro could drift higher against the pound and I would expect the Dollar to strengthen back with the uncertainty.  If you would like to be informed of any breaking news affecting your currency transfer then please e-mail cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to update you.

Colm G

Euro Currency Rate Strengthens but for how long?

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The Euro has had a very solid week gaining a good 2c against Sterling and nearly 4c agaisnt the dollar. Ongoing uncertainty about the debt crisis remains but as mentioned in an earlier post, the market did settle down earlier in the week.

Since then against Sterling, the Euro strengthened further yesterday, pushing trading levels back under 1.20. Another turn yesterday as Spain’s borrowing was announced at a record high and yet another EU summit was held to talk over the debt crisis. The market has not reacted too negatively to this with the Euro only weakening off about 1/2 a cent against Sterling over yesterday and following this release.

This morning has seen the Euro weaken off slightly again with trading levels back in the high 1.19’s. Let’s see what the day brings ahead of the anticipated movements next week.

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Jonathan Watson