Tag Archives: Eu

What to expect with the Euro against Sterling in the next few weeks – The EU referendum in the U.K approaches (Daniel Wright)

I have no doubt that we have an extremely important few weeks coming up for sterling exchange  rates and we will have a great deal of volatility in the lead up to and shortly after the referendum.

We will see some extremely great opportunities for both people needing to buy and sell the Pound and we are already gathering together all of our clients with currency requirements so that we are poised to let them know of a big movement in their favour. If you would like to have us on your side throughout the referendum then feel free to fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page or email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to speak with you and tailor a plan to try and help you get the most for your money.

With exchange rates moving on speculation as well as fact, every poll that is released in the coming weeks will lead to sharp and rapid movements. Over the past two weeks we have seen the Pound rise rapidly when bookmakers and polls had the remain camp flying ahead only to see the Pound drop off throughout the course of last week as the leave camp fought back.

Latest odds with the bookies still suggest remain are ahead but there has been a great deal of money placed on Britain leaving the EU over the past week or so.

The reason the leave camp winning weakens the Pound is due to the uncertainty that it brings  both for the economy and in a political sense. We will not know the terms of any trade deal for a long time and the Prime Minister will probable feel a little uncomfortable that the campaign he was behind has lost in a vote by his public.

My personal view is that we will end up remaining but it will be an extremely close run affair. The problem for those in the remain camp is that the enthusiasm for those wishing to leave is a great deal larger than those wanting to stay, so the turnout is going to be of key importance to the remain camp as many people that would vote remain may not even get down to their polling stations. On top of this, those wishing to leave are preaching a lot louder than those in the remain camp and seemingly turning more and more heads as the battle rolls on.

With this in mind, it would not be surprising to see Sterling drop off a little in the lead up to June 23rd, especially if the polls remain close. If we do see the remain camp win then I would expect Sterling to see an increase in value, I do expect a huge jump on the day but we would more than likely get a fairly sharp spike followed by days of continued strength.

If you are in the middle of buying or selling a property overseas or if your business has upcoming requirements then you need to make sure you have a proactive broker on your side. There are options available to you including limit orders, stop losses and forward contracts, all of these can help you minimise your currency risk in this difficult market.

We here at Euro Rate Forecast all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K with access to exceedingly competitive and rarely beaten rates of exchange, along with awards for our customer service. If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site many years ago and I will be more than happy to help you personally. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound exchanges and will be able to explain all of the options to you in clear and easy to understand terms. Email me today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and a contact number and I will contact you at the earliest opportunity. You can also call our trading floor hotline during trading hours on 01494 787 478.

Will the Euro rate gain or lose against Sterling and the Dollar this week? (Daniel Wright)

We have very little in  terms of key economic data out for Europe this week but there is still plenty out there in the global economy that may impact where the Euro sits at the end of the trading week.

My personal opinion is that I feel the Euro could be set for a tough time in the coming weeks, we still have troubles for Greece and a number of other economies within the Eurozone and the referendum in the U,K may well weigh heavily on the Euro as well as Sterling. The reason for this is that should the U.K decide to leave the EU (although this looks unlikely at present) then this may open the door for a number of other countries to look to follow suit which could be really bad news for the EU and indeed the Euro.

This morning we have net borrowing figures in the U.K which may impact Sterling and later today we have new home sales data out in the States.

My personal opinion is that I would not be surprised to see GBP/EUR go back through 1.30 by the end of this week  and EUR/USD to remain fairly range bound.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Euro for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

Euro exchange rates – Will the Euro be impacted by the referendum in the U.K? (Daniel Wright)

Many people are focused on what will happen to Sterling exchange rates in the lead up to and after the referendum but we must remember that this will no doubt have a huge impact on the Euro too.

Should the U.K vote to leave the EU the general feeling is that this may open up the floodgates for other economies and countries to look to follow suit. In my opinion I feel that Euro exchange rates will have a tough time of things should we see the U.K leave the EU as it will then bring in a huge amount of uncertainty for the Euro.

Euro exchange rates have lost a little ground against Sterling in trading this morning following solid trade balance figures being released by the U.K. Rates are currently climbing towards the 1.27 mark but still do not appear to be able to break through the 1.25-1.27 range. Tomorrow we have a huge amount of data out from Europe and the Bank of England and I feel that this may be the day that we do break through, and I feel Sterling will climb higher.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Euros for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

 

EU Referendum causes volatility on GBP/EUR. When should I trade? (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has lost ground against  the Euro as of late. We have seen a host of poor data from the UK which has brought down the Pounds value.  The key factor in any GBP/EUR trade at present is the EU referendum. I believe the reason for recent poor data in the UK can be levelled at the uncertainty created by the EU referendum. A current poll in the Economist currently has the Leave camp in the lead at 41%, the remain camp at 40% and the remainder undecided. I think we will see a lot of volatility on GBP/EUR  up until the day of the referendum on 23rd June. At 08.30 on Wednesday this week we will see the release of manufacturing production and industrial production in the UK. I am going against the grain and I would expect to see a contraction which could weaken Sterling further. We also have the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday at 11am. I would be very surprised to see any change and I would also expect no change in the voting from the monetary policy committee.

If you have to move during these volatile times it is vital to get in touch with your broker. There are a series of contract options that can be used to maximise your specific trading requirement. If you are without a broker pleased o not hesitate to get in touch, I will be happy to be your eyes and ears in the market. I specialise in property and commercial trading and I am in a position to beat any competitors rate of exchange. Please feel free to get in touch for a quote at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Inflation data to be next on the cards for Euro exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

We have a fairly quiet week of economic data on the cards for Euro exchange rates this week however as we all know that certainly does not mean the exchange rates won’t be volatile!

The real key release of the week will be on Thursday morning when we have European inflation data out at 10:00am.

I still far from believe that all the European woes have gone away and that we will soon be due our usual yearly PIGS of Europe headlines as it all seems to have gone a little quiet once again for those European economies that have recently found trouble and economic problems.

This may however be days, weeks, months or even years before we see it all come back into the headlines so if you are looking to buy Euros in the near future then don’t count on it too much!

We have recently seen Euro at its strongest against Sterling in over a year and the key question now is how much better can it get? In my opinion the fears of the U.K leaving the EU are really the main issue for Sterling and should these be dampened then the Pound will start to rally back so if you have Euros to sell and you are waiting for the referendum, it may be prudent to look at booking out half of your need now. If the Pound begins to rally then it has a lot of room to start coming back up if it wants to and the domino effect we have seen in Sterling’s drop off could be mirrored in its rise.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Euros for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Euro Coming Under Pressue As Expected

The Euro has begun to creak in the last couple of days against recent highs on the pound and the Dollar.  The Aussie has also smashed the single currency so what is causing this movement?

Well the Euro had strengthened significantly on the back of slightly better than expected inflation data last month and the ECB’s announcement not to change policy and actually increase growth forecasts.  However I felt these levels were unsustainable and it looks as though comments from the ECB members that negative interest rates are still a possibility.  We have inflation data for Germany on Friday and wider EU figures on Monday, and whilst UK figures were low but as expected this week, I think European figures could struggle.

If inflation is low then this could trigger another wave of Euro weakness and I suspect markets are already beginning to price this possibility in.  The ECB have said that prolonged low inflation would be difficult to combat, so any GBP EUR currency transfers may want to keep a close eye on Friday and Monday as rates creep back towards 1.20.  I don’t foresee huge sterling weakness given recent UK data so Euro sellers may want to move quickly to avoid potential losses.

The US Dollar has made headway against the Euro following the recent Fed Minutes and I still feel long-term that the Dollar will strengthen back- interest rates in the US will likely start going up next year at some point whereas the Eurozone will still be in a mire.

The Aussie has torn the Euro to pieces of late and surpassed even my expectations – the RBA have been pretty clear that the current cycle of interest rate cuts and whilst I expect the run of strength will rebound as speculators take profit, there may be a little bit more room in this run yet after Stevens speech in the early hours of this morning.  If you do have a currency transfer requirement and would like help getting the best rate then please feel free to call Colm on 01494 787 478 or email me at cmg@currencies.co.uk

Weak European Economic Growth (Tom Holian)

With growth in the EU having grown by just 0.1% in the third quarter of this year the figure is alarming. With the recent interest rate cut aimed at lowering inflation this also shows signs that the ECB is worried about the future.

Last week Mark Carney and the Bank of England raised the growth forecast by 0.3% for both 2013 and 2014 but on the continent things are looking rather unsteady. Many countries have already been bailed out during the last 2 years and austerity measures seem not to be working.

As unemployment continues to rise this could signal further falls for the Euro and could send Sterling through the 1.20 barrier before Christmas. Compared to the US who are currently experiencing 2.8% GDP for 2013 the Eurozone for the same period are just at 0.4%. France shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter and Germany slowed to 0.3% from 0.7% during the same period.

The Bank of England minutes are due out on Wednesday and all eyes will be transfixed on the data. With the UK deciding to keep interest rates on hold until UK unemployment hits 7% or less it will make interesting reading if there’s any sign that interest rates may be increased sooner.

If you are thinking about making a currency transfer and want to save money when buying Euros then get in touch for a free quote teh@currencies.co.uk

Greek hangover still weighing on the Euro

Greece is set to go to the polls again after days of coalition talks failed to produce an agreement on a new government. The elections on 6th May, showed a majority of Greek voters backing parties opposed to austerity plans demanded by the EU and IMF in return for two bailouts. Polls suggest the leftist Syriza bloc, which came second in the 6th May vote and rejects all further cutbacks, could become the largest party after a new election. Syriza wants to renegotiate the bailout package but also wants to keep Greece in the euro.

However European leaders say they will cut funding for Greece if it rejects the bailout agreed in March. This would effectively mean bankruptcy for Greece and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble again ruled out amending the agreement. Yesterday an interim ‘caretaker’ government was sworn in to power led by a  former high court judge Panagiotis Pikramenos will take the reigns until the new vote scheduled for the 17th June.

I feel this will continue to heap pressure on the Euro and any Euro sellers, certainly if funds are not liquid, may wish to consider a forward contract to guarantee their rate in advance. For Euro buyers this is potentially good news, however should you wish to take advantage of the current spike (we are trading at a near 3 1/2 year high on GBP/EUR) then a forward contract again might be the sensible option. Alternatively should you still have time on your side and have a particular target rate in mind then why not consider the use of a limit contract. This contract allows you to set a target price and should this level of exchange be reached your position will be automatically bought/sold. These contracts are designed to sit in the market 24/7 to make sure an opportunity is not missed, to discuss this and your position in more detail then please contact Mike on mgv@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

Data for the rest of theis week to keep your eye on:

Today is a very quiet day with Bank holidays in parts of Europe. Tomorrow will see German CPI (Consumer Price Inflation) data. These inflation figures are important as they give a useful insight as to what the ECB (European Central Bank) will do with future interest rates. Should inflation be kept under control is gives more scope for rates to stay on hold or potentially fall which may well weaken the Euro further, we are expecting a small drop month on month from 0.4% to 0.3%.

Tomorrow we also have the start of the G8 summit, the meeting of the finance ministers from the group of eight industrialized nations that are the United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, and Russia. Here the ministers will discuss important economic policy, and I am sure the on going euro zone issues will be top of theuir list so watch this space! To discuss this blog and my views or to run through the service we provide please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Busy week for the Euro, which way is it likely to go?

Today we have seen the Euro post strong gains against the pound and hold steady against the US dollar. What has caused the Euro resurgence this afternoon? Increased risk appetite I feel is still causing a slight move in favour  of riskier currencies when compared to the US dollar and this is causing a move towards the Euro. An increase in demand for the Euro has lead to short term Euro strength purely as demand increases so to does the price. I feel the Euro may well continue to hold strong against the US dollar in the short term as the market has expectations for further quantitative easing in the US in the coming months. This may well continue to weigh heavily against the dollar and this may lead to subsequent further short term boosts in demand for the Euro and I feel a move back toward 1.34 likely for EUR/USD and 1.19 for GBP/EUR.

What data to keep an eye on this week?

Tomorrow morning we have EU retail sales figures and German Factory orders at 10:00 and 11:00 respectively. Both data sets will give the market clues as to the general performance within the EU as a whole and Europe’s largest economy Germany. EU retail sales are expected to pose a small decline and may therefore cause a small fall in Euro value following the release. Also this week we have industrial production figures from Germany at 11:00 on Thursday – again expected to show a decline month on month putting pressure on the Euro. The main data sets for this week for anyone with a GBP/EUR interest will be the ECB interest rate decision tomorrow at 12:45 (brought forward a day because of a European Bank holiday on Thursday and Friday) and the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday at 12:00. Both central banks are expected to keep rates on hold, however keep an eye on any further talk of quantitative easing from the UK.

As currency specialists we are here to help you achieve the best available market price at the point of your transaction. Unfortunately we have no control over market movements but through years of experience and an insight into what data sets can affect the market more than others we are happy to pass this experience on to our clients to help them make a decision as to when is the best time to exchange. Should you wish to discuss the service we can offer in more detail then please email me directly at mgv@currencies.co.uk

EU consumer confidence TODAY

Later this afternoon at 3 pm GMT the EU release their consumer confidence which is normally a report that does change exchange rates.  Today however I personally think that it will be even bigger news to the market as it also gives consumers thoughts about spending through the debt crises that in turn will probably affect the long term recovery of the euro zone. Expectations are for a drop so this morning we have already seen the euro weaken as it becomes cheaper to buy euro’s.  Later today after the report I would expect this trend to continue.

In other news we also have a number of reports coming from the US. As regular traders will know relationship between the dollar and euro is key as it is the largest traded currency pair.  As this price moves and currency changes hands it can affect GBPEUR as money either pores in or out of the euro.  These reports include jobless figures and home sales in the US, both of which are expected to be positive.  So in turn could further extend gains for sterling to euro clients as money goes out of the euro into the dollar.

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