Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

UK growth figures released later this morning could impact GBP/EUR exchange rates (Joseph Wright)

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With one year to go before the Brexit officially takes place, the countdown begins with financial markets looking closely into the health of the UK economy.

Later this morning at 9.30am we will be given an idea of how the economy is fairing as UK GDP figures will be released. These figures will show us how much the UK economy grew during the last quarter of 2017, and the expectation is for 0.4% growth.

As markets are expecting to see this figure we can expect to see GBP exchange rates fluctuate if the figure released deviates from 0.4%, with rises likely if it’s greater and Sterling falls if it’s lower.

The Pound’s value has seen a boost in the last week after it emerged that the Brexit transitional deal has been agreed, which was an issue weighing down the Pound previously. Now that this has been agreed and a softer Brexit is likely to take place, I think that economic data releases will begin to carry weight when it comes to the Pound’s market movements.

The next key data release is next Tuesday, as Manufacturing data will be released and provide us with an update regarding the heath of this industry within the UK. If you have a currency exchange to make and would like to plan around this event, do feel free to get in touch as I’ll be happy to offer my own opinions on the market.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Pound climbs on hopes of a rate hike in May, how could this impact GBP/EUR moving forward? (Joseph Wright)

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The Pound jumped to its highest level against the Euro since early June last year during today’s trading session.

The rate went comfortably above 1.15 at it’s highest point today but it’s since dropped off back into the mid 1.14’s, which isn’t unusual to see when the rates jump to new high’s as profit taking usual puts pressure on the surging rate.

Aside from the positive news for the UK earlier this week when it emerged that the transitional Brexit deal has been arranged, the Pound has been boosted further today after the was shock result in the Bank of England’s voting members regarding their views on the monetary policy for the UK.

Markets had been expecting all 9 voting members of the BoE to vote in favour of keeping rates on hold at the moment, but 2 members shocked financial markets and voted in favour of hiking the rates at the moment. This has boosted hopes of a rate hike in May which is why the Pound saw a boost.

The comments after the vote were quite cautious as it was stated that the hikes would be gradual and limited which put a bit of pressure on Sterling, but personally i think that if the hike in May happens we’re likely to see a stronger Pound in the latter half of the year.

With the EU summit taking place in Brussels over the next few days I think those following the rates should be weary in case of further Brexit revelations.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

What will move the Euro in the next week?

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The Euro has been struggling to continue its recent performance in 2018, having performed very well against all the major currencies. Expectations for the Euro are centered around the improved political certainty stemming from Angela Merkel’s progress to another term as German Chancellor. Any worries over the Italian situation have failed to materialise and we are now looking at more economic factors on the Euro.

Mario Draghi and his team have stated they will be looking to raise interest rates longer term as it comes out of the long QE (Quantitative Easing) program that has been in place for so long. The market is now factoring in the longer term chances of Euro strength but with so much ‘good news’ in the value of the Euro already, looking for further improvements could be tricky.

The Euro is slightly softer as the market had risen so much on the comments from the ECB (European Central Bank) last week. If you need to buy Euros with pounds we are currently above 1.13 on the interbank rate. These are close to some of the best rates to buy Euros since May 2017! Overall conditions in the market are still unsettled, the next really big news will be the EU Summit next week.

GBPEUR rates could be quite volatile next week as we have a series of important UK data including the Bank of England interest rate decision. This is due on the Thursday 22nd and with the EU Summit also due that week, we could be in for a very volatile period.

If you wish to learn more about the Euro rate forecast, please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson

GBP/EUR rate flat amid Russian tensions, will the pair break out of their current trend? (Joseph Wright)

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The Pound to Euro rate is trading in a flat fashion at the moment, despite the Chancellor of the Exchequers Spring statement earlier this week being quite bullish regarding the UK economy.

The pair are struggling to break out of their current range which is between 1.1150 to 1.1350 or so, with the longer term trend being between 1.15 to 1.10. Last week was the flattest week for the pair since early 2016 which just goes to show the lack of movement at the moment despite there being quite a lot of issues that could potentially move the markets quite dramatically.

With the UK already having a lot to deal with in regards to the Brexit transitional agreement set to be arranged shortly, the UK now appears to be embroiled within a new Russian spy poisoning scandal after Sergei Skripal and his daughter were found poisoned after eating at a restaurant in Salisbury.

After failing to respond to the UK’s deadline regarding their stance on the matter, Russia has now been told by UK Prime Minister, Theresa May that 23 Russian diplomats will be expelled and that they have just 1-week to leave.

Should this issue to continue to materialise I think that there’s a chance we could see the Pound fluctuate, especially if a trade war begins.

There is a lack of economic data set for release this week so politics is likely to be the main driver of GBP/EUR this week.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

EUR Forecast – EUR Weakens Following Leaked EU Parliament Report (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has lost ground against both Sterling and the USD, during the early part of the trading week.

GBP/EUR rates hit a high of 1.1355, whilst EUR/USD rates have retracted back towards 1.23.

The reason for this downturn has been attributed to leaked report, which indicated that the EU Parliament is set to push for Britain to have “privileged” single market access, giving the UK more flexibility and thus softening our upcoming exit. It seems as though Brussels are keen to accelerate the UK’s exit, perhaps by offering improved terms.

Whilst these reports have not been substantiated, they seem to have filtered through to currency markets and provided enough substance, to act as a potential catalyst for yesterday’s downturn.

If true they would also go against the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, who has fought against any type of open access for Britain once it has removed itself from the EU bloc.

The markets seem to be increasingly driven off of rumours rather than facts and as such, they are proving increasingly difficult to dissect.

The Eurozone economy has outperformed almost every expectation over the past 18 months and whilst growth forecasts remain positive, any change in momentum regarding Brexit negotiations, or a softening of the media’s depiction of the UK’s economic downfall, could weaken the single currencies position further.

Looking ahead and this morning’s UK Unemployment figures have the propensity to be a key market mover. With Unemployment predicted to remain unchanged at 4.3%, expect additional volatility on GBP/EUR rates should the official figure be released outside of this remit.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

What to expect for Euro exchange rates

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When converting euros it is essential to monitor the other currency that you will be trading, as the 2nd currency will have an impact on the exchange rate you recieve. When focusing solely on the euro it is key to note that the currency is performing extremely well. Unemployment levels are at the lowest levels since the financial crash in 2008 and European growth sits at a 10 year high. However its not all good news for the Europeans.

Analysts are suggesting that President of the European Central Bank has no tools available to him to devalue the currency in a bid to keep European exports competitive.  The President has kept interest rates at record lows and used quantitative easing to create a money supply in a bid to stimulate growth, however he knows that a prolonged Q.E program has the potential to have a detrimental impact on the economy.

Over the last couple of years the ECB have focused on inflation levels within Europe, however if the currency continues to strengthen it’s hard to see how inflation will continue to rise towards the ECB’s 2% target. Nevertheless I expect the positive data releases we have seen over the last couple of years will continue and the European economy will continue to remain strong throughout 2018.

The main currency pairs I convert for clients is EURGBP and EURUSD. For the trading pairs I would have a different strategy. The euro is still extremely strong against the pound, however I expect this trend to dissipate throughout the year when the UK secures a deal with the EU in regards to the transition and also the important trade talks which will follow.  Therefore for any client that is holding onto euros and wish to buy pounds, I would look to make this transfer sooner rather than later.

In regards to EURUSD, the US dollar continues to remain under pressure due to a variety of reasons and most of the time President Donald Trump has something to do with it. Many of the leading banks are suggesting that EURUSD exchange rates are going to break 1.30 by the end of the year, therefore holding onto euros for the time being may be the best option.

The currency company I work for helps people that convert euros into a foreign currency. Most of my clients are either owners of a business or property sellers in Europe that need to repatriate to their own country. If you fit into either category I want to hear from you, as I believe I will be able to make you more currency when you come to trade. My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to speaking with you.

 

Dayle Littlejohn

The Euro looks set to remain very strong!

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The Euro has been performing well in 2018 and this trend looks set to continue as we get further news of economic strength. Yesterday Eurozone GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was confirmed at 2.6% for the year and 0.6% for the quarter. This is outperforming the UK and almost the United States! Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy outperformed the expectations with the figures coming in at 0.1% above the prediction.

If you have a transfer to make in the coming weeks then understanding the movements on the Euro is key to getting the best rates of exchange. If you need to buy Euros and are hoping for the rates suddenly weaken it is important to understand what is realistic. Part of our service is to offer detailed analysis of the market and information to help you with any timing or planning of any currency exchanges.

The Euro is not immune from challenges to its strength with the Italian election two weeks on Sunday. This could be a major market event that would see some big swings in the currency market, possibly creating some unexpected opportunities. However, placing too much reliance on this could be dangerous, if the Italian election passes off like the French, German and Catalan, there may not be too much market reaction.

Clients looking to buy Euros with pounds or dollars should also be concerned with what is happening to those currencies. Both are gently being supported by the prospect of future interest rate hikes, both are also at risk of sudden shocks. The pound from Brexit and the US dollar over concerns over the direction of the US economy.

For more information at no cost or obligation please feel free to contact myself Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson

EUR Forecast – Tomorrow’s Eurozone GDP Figures Likely to Impact Euro’s Value (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has made some inroads against both GBP and the USD, although in truth GBP/EUR rates have remained extremely range bound throughout Tuesday’s trading.

UK inflation data released this morning, seemed to initially boost investor confidence in the Pound. This is somewhat surprising, as the official figure of 3% is moving further away from the government’s target of 2%.

The EUR slight dip may be linked to Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney’s recent comments, regarding the central bank raising interest rates to help counter rising inflation. This move, were it to occur, would likely be welcomed by investors as it could help to strengthen Sterling’s position against the single currency.

However, it seems like another false dawn and those clients holding EUR positions saw the single currency fight back, though GBP/EUR rates had minimal fluctuation throughout the day, hitting 1.1229 at the Euro’s high.

It performed slightly better against the USD, hitting 1.2370 and gaining almost a cent at its high.

Looking ahead and clients with a EUR currency exchange to execute this week, should be keeping a close eye on tomorrows Eurozone Gross Domestic (GDP) & Industrial Production figures.

With GDP being one of the months most important data releases for any economy, expect additional volatility on EUR exchange rates should the figures come in outside of the predicted 2.7% growth.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

EUR Forecast – Support for the Single Currency Weakens During Wednesday’s Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR started the week extremely positively, making gains against both the Pound & USD.

That’s positive spike has cooled today, with the single currency failing to make further inroads against either currency.

Sterling found support at 1.1236, moving back towards 1.13 by the close of European trading.

It was worse news against the USD, with the greenback finding plenty of support during afternoon trading. The EUR dropped alarmingly from 1.2405 at its high earlier today, to a low of 1.2269.

It’s been a volatile week for the EUR, following the much publicised crash in the global stock markets. Whilst there is no direct correlation between the stock markets and currency exchange rates, any shift in global financial conditions can have knock on effects for an economy and ultimately this will impact the value of their currency.

The single currency had found plenty of support earlier this week, following some positive Services data. This was coupled with EU commissioner Michel Barnier’s comments regarding Brexit negotiations and how the UK would not be able to work outside of the EU’s laws, whilst expecting not to have any restrictions on trade.

These comments put pressure back to Sterling, with the EU clearly taking a hard line stance as we head into a crucial period of the Brexit talks.

The EU seem to be in the driving seat and this in turn is causing investors to leave their funds in the EUR, which is seemingly turning into a more stable and “safer haven” currency than the Pound.

This complete turnaround in market perception since the EU referendum result is portrayed in the recent economic data releases for each economy, with the UK’s downturn the complete opposite of what is evidently, a thriving Eurozone economy.

Yes the EUR has weakened slightly from the dizzy heights it achieved late in 2017 but the outlook for the Eurozone remains far healthier than that of the UK’s, which is continually dwarfed by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfers to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

EUR Forecast – EUR Curbs Further Losses Against Sterling (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has found some support during the early part of the trading week against Sterling but found itself on the back foot against the USD.

GBP/EUR rates dropped to 1.1341, with the single currency finding plenty of support around 1.14.

It was a different story against the greenback, with the EUR losing almost a cent at the day’s low. The loss against the USD could be attributed to the positive comments made by President Donald Trump at the Davos economic summit. The US stock market has hit multiple highs over the past year and with growth forecast looking healthy for 2018 and beyond, the outspoken President has wasted no time claiming responsibility for these positive strides.

With Trump first State of union speech tomorrow, its likely investors are flocking to the USD, predicting further positive comments to be made.

Looking at EUR/GBP and the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates on hold and its monetary policy programme unchanged at last week’s central bank meeting. The EUR was well support following comments made by ECB President Mario Draghi, who remained bullish regarding the current Quantitative Easing (QE) programme and the positive effect it was having on the Eurozone economy. This helped to curb any further losses against GBP and help to support it around the current levels.

Reports circulated today that the EUR will demand freedom of movement for all EUR nationals for the entire Brexit transition period, with talks continuing between as we enter phase two of the negotiations. With trade talks due to start in march, it will be interesting to see how the single currency recast, with the Pound likely to come under further pressure in my opinion.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

What will move the Euro for the rest of January?

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The Euro has started 2018 well with plenty of expectation and improved confidence that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be looking like they may raise their interest rate or possibly withdraw their Quantitative Easing (QE) program. Either measure or both in 2018 would see the Euro stronger and lay some foundation for further rises longer term.

However, that expectation might in practice not see the Euro stronger, it might actually see the Euro weaker. This is because the currency markets can sometimes price in good news for a currency and then if it is not quite as positive as expected, it can see the currency weaker. This happened very recently on the Euro when the ECB withdraw their stimulus and the Euro weakened, this was because it was not as hawkish (strong) a move, as the market had predicted.

The coming week will now see plenty of focus on the ECB when they meet next week as to what kind of developments in policy we can expect. Personally, I expect the Euro will remain on the weaker side since I think the market has read too much into the progress on economic policy that has been outlined. The ECB has been very cautious in their policy developments, I think this will continue as there is the Italian election in March and I doubt the ECB will want to do anything that unnecessarily triggers volatility.

The Euro remains at exceptionally strong levels against all currencies, if you have a transfer to make in the coming weeks then making plans in advance is wise. Leaving everything until the last minute and hoping for the best is not the best way to manage a currency transaction. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Jonathan Watson

EUR Forecast – Will the Euro Remain the currency of choice for Investors? (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has started this year in the same vein as it ended the last, finding plenty of support from investors.

Whilst it has dipped slightly from its 6 year high against Sterling, it has still found support around 1.13, which remains an extremely attractive sell price for those clients holding the single currency.

It has performed best against the USD of late, rising to a three year and some of the best levels we’ve seen since the EUR was first introduced as a currency.

Whilst rates remain at such attractive levels, it may be prudent to remove the risk of what may lie ahead. The markets are likely to be driven by developments with Brexit negotiations and fluctuations with interest rates & monetary policy, which will likely also have a direct impact on exchange rates.

For this reason I would be looking to take advantage of the current sell prices against both GBP and the USD.

Whilst the Eurozone economic prosperity has exceeded expectation at almost every turn, the EUR has at least in part been propelled to the current levels by a complete lack of investor confidence in the UK economy and ultimately Sterling.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reshuffled her cabinet in the hope of bringing some stability and in turn some confidence back to the markets. However, investors have not reacted particularly positively to this development and whilst the Pound has found a foothold of late, a sustainable increase against the EUR looks unlikely under current market conditions.

With so much market focus and emphasis on the UK’s separation from EU neighbours, any positive strides forward in this sphere is likely to benefit Sterling immensely. Brexit has been a weight around its neck for the past 18 months but personally, I feel any resolution in the short-term is highly unlikely.

It is far more conseivable that negotiation’s will continue to stagnate, as they did during the early stages, and this in turn is likely to handicap any sustainable increases for the Pound.

Therefore I would be tempted to remove any risk from the market and lock in any short-term currency exchange before Brexit negotiations resume.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo