Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Predictions for GBP/EUR parity are on the increase, why is the Pound expected to fall? (Joseph Wright)

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In the past week there have been a number of major financial institutions predicting that the Pound to Euro rate is likely to hit parity next year, meaning a 1 for 1 exchange at the inter-bank level, with some even forecasting that GBP/EUR could fall below this mark.

HSBC are backing further Euro strength and think that if the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to avoid commenting on the recent bout of Euro strength, this could give the Euro the green light to continue its strong run as it appear that the ECB aren’t concerned by the strength of the Euro.

HSBC are also predicting further gains for the EUR to USD exchange rate so it’s not just Sterling strength that could push GBP/EUR lower, but Euro strength.

These comments from the major bank come shortly after similar ones from Morgan Stanley. Just yesterday a report on the BBC reported Morgan Stanley’s predictions of Sterling weakness in future without the headline topic being that the GBP/EUR rate could drop below parity for the first time ever in 2018.

These predictions are both longer term with next year being cited as the time when GBP/EUR could see parity, and at the time of writing the pair are trading just over 1.10. Later this morning there will be the release of inflation data which is likely to be keenly watched as those hoping for a boost to Sterling’s value will hope for a high figure resulting in talk of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England, which would be Sterling positive.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Is the Pound to Euro rate going to find support at 1.12, or will the sell-off continue?

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Over the past two-months the Pound has fallen by almost 6% from it’s high, with the rate dropping into the 1.11’s at its lowest stage even if only for a short while.

There appears to be a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the future of the UK since the Conservative Party lost the snap election earlier this year. With Brexit talks ongoing there is also the chance of an unexpected update which could put further strain on the Pounds value which is why we’re seeing the Pound to Euro pair trading around its lowest levels in 8-months.

It’s not just Sterling weakness that has caused this steep fall, but also Euro strength.

Fears surrounding the Eurozone moving forward appear to have waned, after a number of right-leaning populist parties have failed to win any key elections within the key members of the Eurozone.

At the same time there has been talk from the European Central Bank of reducing the amount of Quantitative Easing currently being put into the Eurozone economies.

The issues surrounding Greece are also looking more positive which is another bonus for Euro sellers or those hoping for a strong Euro.

Moving forward I think whether or not the GBP/EUR rate consolidates below 1.12 will be of utmost importance, as I think that if the rate drops below 1.10 there is a chance that parity could be on the horizon longer term.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

Pound to Euro rate hits its highest level so far this week, what could push the Pound higher? (Joseph Wright)

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Euro buyers were faced with the best buying levels seen so far this week, even if only by a small margin as the pair have remained very flat so far this week.

I personally think that the Pound has found some stability at its current level as GBP/EUR has found support in the 1.13’s with the pair rarely dipping below 1.1350.

In this flat market both clients looking to buy Euros at better rates and the markets in general will be looking for the next market mover, and in my experience after such a long period with little movement there can be a big swing once the reasons are there.

There is potential for market movement later today as ECB President Mario Draghi will be speaking. He tends to be quote positive and often we see the Euro strengthen in the wake of his comments or even during his speeches.

Interestingly analysts at UniCredit (a large Italian bank) believe that although an interest rate hike in the UK is premature, the expectations of a hike could result in Sterling gaining by up to 4% against both the US Dollar and the Euro.

A good way of taking advantage of short-term spikes in the market can be setting up a Limit Order. This way clients can set up an automatic order to trade at a higher level should that level become available.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Could GBPEUR rates rise back to 1.20 this year?

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The market is continuing to look like it will favour the Euro in the coming weeks, we urgently need some clarification over just what Brexit means to help the pound. Perhaps once the UK government get its act together the pound will rise but for now it is struggling! To push GBPEUR rates back to 1.15 or 1.16 is possible but I would not expect this to hit 1.20 quite yet. To see such a movement we will need to see a big shift in the sentiment relating to the Brexit, as for now I cannot see this happening anytime soon! If you need to buy Euros then we could start to see some improvements in the market, if you would like some assistance with tracking and planning around such movements please do let me know.

The pound will of course find it a struggle to on its own to be boosted against the Euro, therefore the sentiment on the Euro which has been very positive lately, will need to take a turn for the worse. If you are buying Euros with pounds it is very important to beware of the potential volatility ahead and not put too much hope in rates just rising dramatically.

The lack of political and economic uncertainty in the Eurozone is a key factor in the continuing strength of the single currency, compared to the pound and US dollar, the Eurozone with strong government and strong economic data is being boosted by investors eager to buy the Euro at what relatively seems like a good price compared to where it could go in the future.

If you need to buy or sell pounds for Euros understanding the current trends is crucial to getting the best deals. We operate to offer a proactive service monitoring exchange rates to help you trade at preferential rates. By understanding your situation and closely tracking market trends we can help ensure that overseas property purchase or sale goes through very smoothly with the minimum fuss.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you to discuss further.

 

Jonathan Watson

Has the Pound to Euro exchange rate been oversold, and can it recover? (Joseph Wright)

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The lowest level the Pound to Euro buying rate has hit this week was 1.1280 in the early hours of Monday morning.

This fall was due to fears surrounding the potential deal to be struck between the Conservative and DUP parties within the UK, as last weeks election failed result in a clear majority for any of the political parties.

Political uncertainty tends to weigh on the underlying currency which is why we’ve seen the Pound fall recently, and the GBP/EUR rate was already dropping in the lead up to last weeks vote as the race for number 10 was looking a lot closer than many had expected when the election was first announced by Theresa May (UK Prime Minister).

Being in touch with a broker during these uncertain times can be very useful, as not only are we able to offer our clients trade options that perhaps their bank wouldn’t, but we’re also able to keep clients updated with any big moves in the exchange rates they’re concerned with.

Later today we could see some more movement between the Pound to Euro rate as the Bank of England will be announcing their interest rate decision. Although no change is expected the talks afterwards could offer us an insight into the BoE’s future plans so if you wish to be kept updated regarding today’s data, do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Joseph W

Pound to Euro rate likely to drop throughout the year (Joseph Wright)

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The Pound to Euro rate is currently trading just below 1.20 and the pair have been pegged around this level since April. In my opinion the current levels are good for those converting Pounds into Euros as GBP/EUR hasn’t managed to climb above the 1.20 mark since it broke that threshold last June so there’s an argument to say the current GBP/EUR level is at the top of its trend.

I’m personally expecting to see the Pound continue to struggle to break above the 1.20 mark, and as the year goes on I think we could see the Pound gradually soften and end up trading at a lower level towards the end of the year than it’s currently trading at.

Analysts at Lloyds Bank feel similarly and just this week they lowered their GBP to EUR price forecast for the end of 2017 down to 1.16 from a previous rate of 1.18. The pair are currently trading at 1.1881, down on the day by -0.15%.

Today could be a very busy day for Sterling exchange rates across the board with some dupping today as ‘Super Thursday’. At lunchtime today the Bank of England’s Interest Rate decision will be announced along with the quarterly inflation report and GDP figures. These data releases could create movement so feel free to get in touch if you wish to plan a transaction around these times.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Joseph W

Pound spikes after Brexit begins, but can GBP/EUR breach 1.16? (Joseph Wright)

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The pound spiked upward after UK Prime Minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 this afternoon at 12.30pm.

It did appear that the markets were jittery in the lead up to this afternoons announcement, as the Pound to Euro rate was trading in the early 1.14’s earlier this morning.

Now that it’s official that Britain will leave the European Union on the 29th of March 2019, the Pound has returned to positive territory and at its highest stage it hit 1.16.

The Pound appears to be struggling to breach this level at the moment, after hitting a high of 1.19 last month after it emerged that Marine Le Pen was leading the race to the French presidency in a popular opinion poll.

I think that those with a currency requirement involving the Pound and the Euro will have to monitor how the French election pans out as a Marine Le Pen victory is likely to result in a sell-off in the Euro. At the same time I think that how the negotiations pan out for the UK now it’s begun the Brexit process is likely to continue to weigh on the Pounds value.

If you wish to be kept updated regarding steep movements between the Pound and Euro do feel free to register your details with me.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Joseph W

When to buy or sell euros (Dayle Littlejohn)

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With sterling vs euro exchange rates fluctuating in the mid teens the triggering of Article 50 this week has the potential to shift exchange rates in my opinion by a couple of percent. Economists are split to whether the triggering of Article 50 provides certainty for the pound and in turn buying euros could become cheaper or on the other hand the 2 year negotiations will begin and an exit will occur which could lead to a sell off of the pound.

Personally I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight fall, which will make purchasing euros more expensive however good news for anyone selling euros. There after we will be in the run up to the French election and I am convinced this will lead to euro weakness  which would improve the purchasing power of the pound against the euro.

Therefore strategy for euro sellers buying pounds, would be trade after Theresa May announces the invoking at some point Wednesday, where as short term euro buyers (next 3 three weeks) should not gamble and take advantage now. Longer term (as long as you are prepared to take the gamble) holding off for the French election could work out well. However just remember the outlook on GBPEUR exchange rates changes weekly therefore being in touch for regular updates should help to time exchange rates and manage your exposure.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade GBPEUR / EURGBP at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend emailing me with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with a detailed strategy taking into consideration upcoming economic data releases and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Dayle Littlejohn

Will the Euro rise or fall?

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The Euro is about to enter a very interesting period of volatility with expectations over European politics driving the exchange rate. Most investors are eagerly awaiting the next set of developments with the European political situation before making big moves. Unfortunately for anyone holding Euros hoping for some better news the outlook for the Euro is not as positive as it has been prompting me to question whether the Euro will now enter a period of prolonged weakness.

The first big event coming up to destabilise the Euro will be the Eurogroup meeting on the 20th February which is looking to make some sense of the recent swings on the Euro rate. Investors are once again concerned over what is happening with Greece, few expect the debt to ever be repaid but most expect some kind of ‘plan’ to be formulated which would see the nerves calmed. Nevertheless the Greek debt crisis is usually a market mover and in conjunction with other events likely to unsettle the Euro is something to be concerned about.

Political concerns over French and Dutch elections are the big concerns for me as there is potential for something largely unexpected to come out of the blue and surprise the markets. For both elections extreme parties on the left and right are gaining support, the overriding concern is the strong chance of right-wing anti-EU parties gaining further support and undermining the EU and the Eurozone.

With the Euro likely to come under some clear pressure in the next few weeks now is the time to be making some plans over your Euro currency purchase or sale. If you have a transfer to make and would like some further information on everything happening to move your rate and help secure a good deal in the process please speak to me Jonny Watson. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more, I look forward to helping you in the future!

Jonathan Watson

Pound Sterling recovers a little ground after a tough week, will the GBPEUR downtrend continue next week? (Joseph Wright)

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The GBP to EUR rate has remained range-bound today, trading between 1.14 and 1.15.

The Pound was buoyed at one stage during the session after Michael Saunders of the Bank of England (BoE) commented that he believes UK unemployment will remain close to it’s current 11-year low in the in the coming months.

This news was a welcome rest-bite for the pound which has been under increasing pressure over the past week. The sell-off between GBP/EUR begun on Monday after over the past weekend the UK PM, Theresa May, gave what many are considering to be a ‘Hard Brexit’ biased interview.

She denies these claims, but the currency markets have already had their say with the Pound losing close to a percent and a half throughout the week.

Investors were already weary regarding the Pounds stability as we await the High Courts ruling on whether or not the UK Government require parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50, and initiating the Brexit process.

I think that next week is likely to be eventful, with the Pound having potential to recover some of this week’s losses if the Government is unsuccessful in their appeal against the decision in November.

On the other hand, if the Government is successful I’m expecting to see further Sterling weakness as that decision would mean that the Brexit will begin within the next 2 weeks as the Government plans.

If you are planning to make a currency conversion between the Pound and the Euro, in either direction, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Joseph W

Sterling takes advantage of Euro weakness and hits 1.20 once again, but will it struggle from here? (Joseph Wright)

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The Pound has gained value over the Euro this week which has resulted in the GBP/EUR pair touching 1.20 for just the second time in around 5 months.

The main reason for the Euro’s weakness is that the Fed Reserve Bank in the US has decided to hike interest rates for just the second time in 2 years, and has also outlined a plan to hike rates a further 3 times this year.

This has created demand for the Dollar and the Euro has been the biggest loser as investors have begun moving their deposits into Dollars due to the expected higher rate of return.

It’s also worth noting that the European Central Bank intends to keep rates low within the Eurozone which has added pressure onto the Euro.

With the above being said, it appears that 1.20 is acting as a psychological level for the GBP/EUR pair as it’s struggling to break above that level. Those planning on converting Pounds into Euros may wish to take advantage of the current 4-5 months highs as after such a short term yet steep rise the Pound could be fragile around it’s current levels.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Joseph W

Is the Euro sitting on a precipice?

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Today saw the release of Euro Zone Services Purchase Manager Index Data. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. It can be a key indicator as to the health of an economy. The data was positive and we did see the Euro gain strength after the announcement.  This was was short lived against Sterling and we have since seen GBP/EUR strike 1.18.

Although the Euro currently sits at what can be considered acceptable buoyancy levels, there are some serious underlying factors that could cause a sharp fall for the Euro. First up, let us  look at Greece. It seems that Greece’s insurmountable debt to the International Monetary Fund has been swept under the carpet by the media. The problem is still there and at some point needs to be addressed. Could Greece be forced out of the Euro? Would this be good or bad? would other countries within the bloc follow suit by leaving?

Next, Let us look at Italian Banks bad loans, now in excess of €360bn. Bad loans was a growing problem in Ireland, but the situation was addressed before it escalated to a point of no return. The Italians have not followed suit. This is a major problem for the Euro and could cause a quick and sharp fall in Euro value.

Inflation in the Euro Zone is an issue that the ECB are having a lot of trouble trying to improve currently there is €80bn being pumped in per month and this could be set to increase. It looks like they are throwing the kitchen sink at the problem and there is still a substantial lack of growth.

With far right parties gaining favour in the bloc, particularly in Germany, there is the possibility of further referendums and this will cause a catastrophic fall in Euro value.

If one of these factors rear its head it could mean big trouble for the Euro. If you are selling Euros it may be wise not to procrastinate for small gains.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to help. I will provide a no obligation trading strategy to suit your needs. I am in a position to beat almost any competitors rate of exchange and would be prepared to provide a comparison with your current provider. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country, Foreign Currency Direct PLC. We have been in business for 16yrs and are registered with the FCA.

If you would like my help please do not hesitate to get in touch by emailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

Executive Dealer

 

Daniel Johnson