Tag Archives: euro weakness
Thursday has seen some major moves in the currency market, following a busy day of economic data releases. The EUR seems to be holding on for dear life against the Pound at the moment, although we have seen GBP find a lot of resistance around 1.18. In contrast however the single currency has surged against the USD, moving over 2 cents from the low of the day and providing USD buyers with some of the best levels on the currency pair this year.
Today’s key data for anyone with a EUR requirement, was the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and Mario Draghi’s subsequent press conference. As expected interest rates were kept on hold and there was no mention of further monetary policy. Whilst the Pound may be enjoying its run against the EUR at present, I do believe the arrival of incoming BoE governor Mark Carney could change the landscape dramatically. There is a lot of talk that he will be instigating aggressive rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE), with the hope that it will devalue the Pound enough to get the Eurozone trading with us again and in turn this should shorten our trade deficit and improve the overall health of the UK economy. For this reason I would suggest anyone looking to buy EUR should consider their positions imminently and those looking to sell should be keeping their eyes firmly fixed on developments over the coming weeks.
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Foreign exchange is one of the most overlooked areas of foreign property. All too often both buyers and sellers alike will go to great lengths to negotiate the price and fixtures or fittings of a property then neglect to consider the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations.
I think this week will bring some good news for Euro buyers, bad news for Euro sellers. I expect that the pound will find some strength and the Euro will weaken as attention turns back to the problems in the Eurozone.
For too long now rates have been strong and whilst I have written a great deal about why this is the case (to read more click here), I do think rates will get a little better in the short term for Euro buyers.
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GBPEUR has already improved for Euro buyers this week and I would not be surprised to see it improve by up to another cent or two this week.
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It’s been a busy morning in the Eurozone so far and there are a lot more data releases set to rock the Euro coming out later on. Early this morning we saw France enter in to a recession with their economy shrinking by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2013, the same figure as the last quarter of 2012. A recession occurs after 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. This was shortly followed by German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. This data release for the Eurozone’s largest economy came out at 0.1% growth for the first quarter. This may have shown growth for the German economy but will still be seen as negative as it was expected that the economy would grow by 0.3%. Though we have seen some slight weakness this doesn’t seem to have had a major effect on EUR rates but there is more to come today.
We will also find out the GDP figures for Italy and Portugal today and at 10:00am we have arguably the biggest announcement of them all, Eurozone GDP figures. It is expected that this will come out at -0.1%, meaning a decline across the whole Eurozone economy. I personally think we may see this announcement come out slightly worse than expected and if so we could see a bout of Euro weakness off the back of this. With all of the data across the Eurozone coming out today and none of it seeming too positive I feel as though -0.1% is only a very small amount for the Eurozone economy to shrink for an economy that is obviously struggling a great deal. If this announcement doesn’t come out as expected, whether it be better or worse, then I would expect to see a lot of movement with regards to EUR rates.
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What a volatile day for the single currency. The Euro started off this morning’s session against the pound at 1.1694. Just after the Bank of England minutes were released we saw the Euro significantly strengthen all the way to 1.1577. If you were a Euro seller at this time you were probably jumping for joy. For those that were looking at buying the Euro you were more than likely crying into your cup of tea cursing that you did not exchange your funds yesterday when the pound was looking a lot healthier.
Go forward to the afternoon session and the roles completely reversed with the Euro once again weakening back to 1.1694. Comments from a member of the European Central Bank seriously knocked the Euro off its perch as he stated that the ECB may adjust interest rates if new information warrants a cut. This led investors and the markets to believe that a rate cut in Europe could be around the corner. Yesterday’s inflation data for Europe which showed inflation dropping is giving the ECB scope to cut rates should they wish to do so. When a country raises or cuts interest rates it has a significant effect on the currency in question and this is why the mere rumour of a rate cut has weakened the Euro against a host of majors.
I personally feel that why inflation remains at manageable levels we will see the ECB look at cutting rates over the next couple of months. This will hopefully give those of you that need to buy the single currency a couple of percent more on your funds. If you need to sell the Euro then with everything that has been going on in the Euro zone you may be wise to look at your position in the near future before the currency weakens further. The rates are still much better than the majority of 2012 so why gamble with your hard earned funds.
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The Euro rate has stabilised a touch this week following excessive volatility as a result of the Cyprus debacle. Speaking to some of my clients today in Cyprus, the picture is still unclear. The mood amongst the people is not good and a dark cloud now appears to be hanging over this usually warm and sunny island.
Markets have very bad memories and the Euro rate is bound to be moved by new news soon. Tomorrow is the ECB (European Central Bank) conference where we will learn a bit more about how the ECB view affairs in Cyprus and this will provide some indication as to where rates will head next.
Mario Draghi the ECB President is known for moving markets and we can see movements of a couple of cents in a day. If you are looking to arrange a currency transfer involving the Euro, tomorrow may provide a bit of movement. I think personally we will see the Euro strengthen against other currencies as Mario talks up the Euro’s prospects.
Ultimately the Euro area has huge concerns to address but the UK and US too, have their own debt problems. I expect attention will return to the UK once again and would not be surprised to see rates dip to say 1.15-1.16 in the next week.
If you are considering any currency exchanges I can help point out the high and low movements plus ensure when you do trade, you do so at the best possible commercial rates. For more information on how it all works and to receive updates, please contact me Jonny on firstname.lastname@example.org
The Euro has weakened against a basket of major currencies and is down by over 2% against the pound in the last 48 hours. Yesterday the pound breached 1.16 for the first time in 2 weeks. This led the trading floor to be extremely busy with many clients capitalising on the spike. If you need to buy Euros and would like to capitalise on the spike or you may be selling Euros and feel that you do not want to take the risk with current levels going against you then please feel free to email me with your currency requirement at email@example.com
Data showed that the number of employed people in the Euro zone dropped at the end of Q4 2012, & Year-over-year the number of employed people decreased by 0.8% This and events Italy has started to weigh on the single currency as the cost of their borrowing has risen to the highest level since December & with still no government in place their bond yields could continue to go up.
This morning there is a batch of inflation figures out for the Euro zone a Euro summit is taking place. I feel that the pound will continue to gain today testing the high 1.16’s but could come under pressure as we head into next week as many limit orders will fill. With many key data releases due out from the BoE minutes to the Chancellors Budget I would not be surprised to see sterling test the 1.14 level again.
If I was buying Euros I would take full advantage of the 2% gain. I feel that it is extremely unlikely that the pound will get anywhere near the 1.20 highs seen at the end of 2012 so any spikes that do occur should be taken up. Over the years when the pound has spiked it often came crashing back down so be cautious if you are still holding out for higher levels and you have an exchange date fast approaching.
If you have any target levels or would like us to be your eyes on the market please let me know what your requirement is and what your target levels are. The rates that we offer can be up to 4% better than your bank and we offer all of our clients a very personal service to help you judge when to time your exchange.
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The EUR has certainly benefited from Sterling’s demise more than most other currencies since the turn of the year. Following some positive statements form various eurozone leaders, it did seem as if we were going to be witnessing one way traffic on GBP/EUR for much of the first half of 2013. Sterling has gone against the grain however and started to make some inroads against its euro counterpart during Wednesdays trading. Predictions were for a further fall on GBP/EUR, with some not expecting much positive movement at all as we move towards quarter 2 of this year.
The one thing we can be sure of is that whilst both the UK and eurozone economies continue to stagnate, it will be very difficult to forecast the pair, or identify any real market trends. I would expect the recent volatility to continue, with a potential respite coming if the UK does in fact manage to avoid the now well documented triple-dip recession. On the eurozone side, developments in Italy are key and a run of consistent economic data is need if the EUR is to really push forward.
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The current trend on GBPEUR is downward. If you are looking to buy euros in the next few months you should probably buy quite soon to avoid disappointment. There is a very strong likelihood the euro is going to continue to strengthen against the weaker pound.
The current downward trend on rates is very much in motion and whilst there will be small spikes to take advantage of, the likelihood is that the rates will continue to fall. The reasons? There is now a strong belief despite the problems in Europe, they will solve their problems in the long run. Whilst rates are bound to climb again in the future, this may not happen for a very long time.
Rates have still not settled and daily we are seeing movements of anything from 1-2 cents. 1 or 2 cents on a large volume of currency makes a huge amount of difference and this is where we can help pointing out the highs and lows on the market.
I have had some clients getting in touch who have been holding out this year waiting for rates to go back to 1.20! I am sorry to upset you but it just doesn’t look likely right now. If you are completing on an overseas property soon or are paying euro invoices soon it would be wise to consider moving soon, as well as all your options. Euro strength and sterling weakness have combined to spoil the dreams of overseas property hunters and anyone buying goods overseas. Why take the risk? Rate will probably climb again but realistically it could take years to go back up to 1.20.
Talk of GBPEUR reaching parity and certainly 1.10 are all over the media and I think it is fair to say the rates will drop further before they pick up. The flipside of this of course is good news for those selling euros. If you are selling euros the time now is excellent and may improve further. Speak to me about ensuring you don’t miss out on these highs and to find out how using our service works!
It is often the greedy who get their fingers burnt so to speak with a specialist about all of your options buying and selling euros please speak to me Jonny on firstname.lastname@example.org. A quick email with details of your situation plus a contact number means I can provide information on your options making your life easier and less costly.
I look forward to hearing from you