Tag Archives: euro
Euro rates rally against the Pound. Bank of England minutes tomorrow may cause further GBP/EUR volatility
Following a dip in the UK’s inflation rate the pound has fallen against a host of currencies including the Euro dropping rates into the mid 1.17s. With the Bank of England minutes released at 09:30 tomorrow morning tomorrow could also prove a busy day for GBP/EUR. For me I am not expecting to much from the minutes and indeed you may find very little impact on the market. In fact I feel the Bank of England may adopt a relatively neutral stance over the next 6 weeks as Sir Mervyn King hands over the reigns to Mark Carney in July. It is at this point that you may find more radical policies to be implemented by the central bank. Many expect Mr Carney to impose of self from the word go and give a nod to further Quantitative Easing, or even a surprise interest rate hike – of course he does not have the final say and will need to see a majority vote from the 9 members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) but he may begin to influence his peers.
Also at 09:30 tomorrow watch out for Retail Sales figures from the UK (expected to show a strong improvement that could lead to GBP strength as a result). Should you have an interest in Euro exchange rates then also watch out for a speech from Mario Draghi Thursday morning, positive sentiment from Mr Draghi the Euro may continue its strong start to the trading week.
As you can see we have plenty of data released for the rest of the week. To be kept up to date with the impact these data sets may have for your individual requirement then please contact me and I will happily run though my forecasts and run through the various contracts we can offer to help maximise your currency exchange. I am very confident I can help achieve a better rate than your current provider. Please call the office on 01494 787478 or email me (Mike) with a brief overview of your requirement and I will gladly contact you to help with your money exchange. I can be reached at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Sterling Euro exchange rates in May – What can we expect? (Daniel Wright)
With positive growth figures for the U.K and interest rates being cut in Europe the signs are that we are potentially starting to turn a corner for the Pound against the Euro which is great news for those looking to buy property over in France in the near future.
Investors will however be closely monitoring how economic data for the U.K is this month and any hints of the U.K taking one step forward and two steps back will not be looked upon greatly for the Pound so this is one thing we need to be aware of. My personal opinion is that things are indeed on the up for the U.K and although I do not expect major economic growth until at least 2014 I think we should now be able to tread water and avoid the dreaded recession for the foreseeable future unless we do see another major incident within the Eurozone that could dent the U.K too.
With the major economic releases out of the way and the recession avoided the spotlight does not appear to be back on Europe and any comments from members of the European Central Bank regarding future fiscal policy will be taken extremely seriously this month. Just last week following the ECB interest rate cut, at a press conference held by head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi the mere mention of possible negative deposit rates led to the Euro losing ground by almost a cent against Sterling in a matter of minutes, so if this policy is adopted in the future we could see further Euro weakness.
All in all I feel that we are now more likely to see Sterling go back above 1.20 than we are to see it go back below 1.15 however in such a fragile market if you are looking to buy Euros with Sterling in the near future then it is key that you keep a very close eye on the markets as things can change very quickly and even the slightest movement in exchange rates can drastically effect the price of your overseas property.
Euro weakens following comments that we may see a cut in interest rates soon
The Euro lost ground yesterday following comments by ECB member Weidmann who said “The ECB may adjust rates if new information warrants it”.
This suggests that we may now be moving ever closer to an interest rate cut in Europe which may weaken the Euro against all major currencies.
An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike a positive as it makes a currency more attractive to investors. Even the slightest hint of a rate cut and a currency can devalue which is why we headed back to roughly 1.17 (0.8547) against the Pound (over a cent higher than the low of the day) before close of trading.
This highlights the need to have someone on your side monitoring rates of exchange… I saved some clients over £2000 on their €235,000 purchase yesterday by telling them to sit tight and wait after the drop we saw in early morning trading…. The decision of course always has to be the clients but they agreed and got their Euros a lot cheaper at the end of the day.
I cannot directly advise you but I can give you lots of information to help you make an informed decision.
If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out and you want the very best exchange rates to either buy or sell the Pound and you want to be kept fully up to speed with market movements that may save you €1000s then contact me directly and I will be happy to help you compare with your bank or current provider – I pride myself on not only rates but customer service too.
You can contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk please quote ERF in the subject title and leave me a number to call you on, I look forward to speaking with you.
What to expect this week for Euro exchange rates?
Euro exchange rates have remained relatively stable against the Pound and US Dollar today but have posted strong gains against the Australian Dollar following worst than expected growth forecasts from China. With China being the largest net importer for Australian raw materials and with the Australian economy heavily reliant on its mining sector this is a cause for concern for the Aussie and is likely to create some good opportunities to buy AUD in the coming few days.
Slightly closer to home what data this week may affect the Euro? Starting with tomorrow we have the ZEW economic sentiment survey released at 10:00 BST. The ZEW is a well respected think tank and this data will be closely monitored as it shows the levels of institutional investment sentiment and is a key market confidence indicator. It gives the balance of investors and analysts market confidence of the Euro zone and can directly impact of on the value of the Euro dependent on a positive or negative release. Later tomorrow watch out for a speech from ECB governor Mario Draghi, again his comments can drive the markets – is notoriously optimistic so could lead to Euro strength during and after his speech scheduled for 14:00 BST.
Heading into the rest of the trading week look out for the following:
- Thursday – Spanish Bond Auction.
- Friday – European Trade Balance figures.
To discuss the market trends and current data that might affect your particular currency transfer then please contact the office on 01494 787478. Should you wish to test the service or discuss the contracts we have available then please email me with a brief description of your current trade/requirement and I will happily provide you with a live quote. I can be reached by email at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Busy day for GBP/EUR, what data might influence exchange rates today?
Today we have plenty of data to keep those of you with an interest in Sterling and the Euro busy. This begins at 09:30 this morning with UK Industrial Production and manufacturing data. Both are expected to show a slight improvement month on month and should they come out as expected, or better, then this morning could be a strong start for the pound. Of course any deviation from the forecasted result and watch for market movement at 09:30. Following this at 15:00 watch out for UK revised GDP estimates. Currently the UK is on course for its third recession in five years and this data will give further clues as to whether or not this can be avoided. Expectations are for a figure of -0.1% and if as predicted will show the UK is still on course for the triple dip but is very also very close to avoiding recession. For me this will begin to take focus for the GBP/EUR pair in the next couple of weeks, as the markets moves away from the ongoing Cyprus debacle, eyes will be focused on the UK.
Of course there is a real threat of contagion resulting from Cyprus and this should halt any short term momentum for the Euro across the board, however I feel should the UK head back into recession I would expect to see GBP/EUR to fall back towards 1.15 territory. By avoiding the triple dip then I believe the 1.20 area will be tested. This leaves a large range for this pairing and my bring opportunities for both buyers and sellers in the coming weeks.
To discuss the market trends and current data that might affect your particular currency transfer then please contact the office on 01494 725353. As one of the UK’s longest standing independent brokers I am very confident I can undercut any price you have been offered. Should you wish to test the service or discuss the contracts we have available then please email me with a brief description of your current trade and I will happily provide you with a live quote. I can be reached by email on mgv@currencies.co.uk
Euro strength ahead of the ECB interest rate decision at 12:45
Euro exchange rates have rallied this morning bringing moves over the past 48 hours to more than 1% against the pound. This comes ahead of another busy day for the Euro with the first meeting of the the European Central Bank following the €10bn bailout of Cyprus and the much publicised issues surrounding the bailout. Many investors will be looking for Mario Draghi (head of the ECB) to give a vote of confidence to the Euro zone and its single currency and with Draghi notoriously optimistic, epositive rhetoric from Draghi could lead to further Euro strength this afternoon.
Against the USD the trends are still in favour of the dollar and may continue due to continued demands for the dollars safe haven status. Overnight the Bank of Japan increased stimulus as it aims to double the monetary base over two years through the aggressive purchase of long-term bonds, in a dramatic shift aimed at ridding Japan of the deflation that has dogged the country for almost two decades. This is a bold move for the new central governor Haruhiko Kuroda and may shift investors risk apetite. As a result the JPY has devalued and with the Yen often heaviliy involved in currency speculators risk portfolio this may create significant shifts in currency trends over the coming days creating volatility for the safe haven currencies (historically USD and CHF) and many riskier assets such as the AUD, NZD, ZAR and EUR. Wacth for some big shift over the next few working days.
Should you have any upcoming money transfers to arrange and you have found this blog useful then why not contact us to see what we can do for you? The purpose of the site is to give you independent market views to help you make an informed decision with your currency exchange. By giving yourself as much information as possible it can put you in a far stronger position when attempting to maximise your currency exchange, allowing you to limit your exposure to adverse market movement. Should you wish to find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 787478 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run though your options. You can reach me direct at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Where will the Euro rates head next?
The Euro rate has stabilised a touch this week following excessive volatility as a result of the Cyprus debacle. Speaking to some of my clients today in Cyprus, the picture is still unclear. The mood amongst the people is not good and a dark cloud now appears to be hanging over this usually warm and sunny island.
Markets have very bad memories and the Euro rate is bound to be moved by new news soon. Tomorrow is the ECB (European Central Bank) conference where we will learn a bit more about how the ECB view affairs in Cyprus and this will provide some indication as to where rates will head next.
Mario Draghi the ECB President is known for moving markets and we can see movements of a couple of cents in a day. If you are looking to arrange a currency transfer involving the Euro, tomorrow may provide a bit of movement. I think personally we will see the Euro strengthen against other currencies as Mario talks up the Euro’s prospects.
Ultimately the Euro area has huge concerns to address but the UK and US too, have their own debt problems. I expect attention will return to the UK once again and would not be surprised to see rates dip to say 1.15-1.16 in the next week.
If you are considering any currency exchanges I can help point out the high and low movements plus ensure when you do trade, you do so at the best possible commercial rates. For more information on how it all works and to receive updates, please contact me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk
Cyprus Governors have requested a 24 hour extension on their bank deposit proposal, will the ECB intervene?
Governors in Cyprus have requested a 24 hour extension before making their final decision on the bank charge levy on deposits within Cyprus. Should they agree to go ahead with their proposals this is likely to cause further shock waves through the financial markets and could set a precedent for the rest of Europe. Cyprus’s government has proposed to spare small savers from this levy on bank deposits but said it expected parliament to reject the measures needed to secure an international rescue and avoid a default that could cause catastrophic consequences to the Euro zone. As a result the Euro has nosedived falling 3% against the pound and 1.9% against the USD.
To show how serious this situation is in Cyprus and the banks refusing the allow clients to withdraw money, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) have sent a plane containing €1 million from Britain as a contingency measure to provide military personnel with emergency loans. The money will be used for British personnel and their families if cash machines and debit cards stop working, the MoD says.
Situations such as this are very difficult to forecast and shows how difficult it can be to forecast the market. As a specialist currency broker we have a number of tools available to take advantage of spikes as they can often be short lived. Our aim is do maximise our clients positions and to keep them up do date with market trends. Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like to hear more about the currency service we proved then I would be happy to discuss the service in full. We can offer you contracts ranging from standard spot and forwards to stop/loss and limit orders, we also have a rate alert service ensuring we will contact you when a particular rate becomes available.
Anyone looking at buying Euros in the short term may wish to take stock of their current position as these rates may not hang around for too long. Of course the situation in Cyprus will continue to cause a great deal of uncertainty, however those looking at GBP/EUR should also be wary of the Budget in the UK tomorrow. Personally I don’t expect it to have a major impact but should any surprises come from Osborne then expect further market volatility. To discuss the market and your individual requirement then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk
