Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

EUR Forecast – Eurozone Economy Showing Signs of Strength despite Concerns Over a Slowdown in Global Trade (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has enjoyed a better run of late, with the Eurozone economy showing signs of strength again after a difficult period.

German economic growth has helped restore investor confidence in the region, helping to downplay concerns over an export-led slowdown.

The EUR has made gains against both GBP and the USD over recent weeks, with GBP/EUR rates trading back around 1.11. The Pound had threatened to make a run on the Euro last week but mixed reports over a prospective Brexit deal with the EU have muddied the waters once again. In truth, no one really knows where the negotiations stand at present and whilst a deal is still the most likely outcome (75% according to Reuters), the current uncertainty engulfing the entire issue is diluting investors risk appetite for the Pound. This in trrun is also helping to support the EUR around the current levels.

Looking at EUR/USD exchange rates and the EUR has shown particular resilience in the face of President Trump’s trade tariffs, which were threating to derail Eurozone economic growth. The EUR has gained over three cents against the greenback over the past month, hitting a high of 1.1658 this morning.

Longer-term, the implications of a growing global trade crisis could have an impact on Eurozone growth but for the time being, the Eurozone economy is showing an admirable resilience to the pending global trade crisis.

In other news, the Catalan leader Quim Torra will relaunch his regions campaign to split from Spain, rebuffing an offer from the central government for a referendum for greater autonomy. He feels this will fall a long way short of their desire for independence and as such, this potentially destabilising issue could resurface over the coming weeks and months. This in itself could be a negative for the EUR but is unlikely to have a direct impact on its value for the time being.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award-winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

 

Matt Vassallo

Further falls expected for GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

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Sterling vs euro exchange rates have fallen away in recent weeks due to poor economic data being released from the UK and positive news about the Eurozone growth and their quantitative easing program.

The Bank of England a week ago announced that they believe inflation will continue to rise whilst wage growth would fall. This announcement was also supported by the inflation numbers this week, and this weeks inflation hearing for the UK Tuesday morning is a release to keep a close eye on as I expect the Governor of the Bank of England to remain dovish and therefore further falls could occur.

As for the Euro President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi last week gave an interesting statement followed by a Q&A session. His main points where that eurozone unemployment has fallen to its lowest level since the crisis began, growth is improving and the recovery is broad and solid. This provided a boost for the Euro however when asked about the Q.E program he gave no indication to when he will taper the program from €60bn.

Looking further ahead the UK General Election is now in full swing as all of the leading parties have released their manifestos. After reading the manifestos I have to agree with the recent polls and believe that the Conservatives will win a majority. Therefore this could could a small spike in the pounds value however past history tells us leading up to an election the currency in question will come under pressure therefore will the pound only recover the losses we see in the next three weeks?

 

Thereafter Brexit negotiations I believe will be the main talking point for months to come starting with how much the UK will have to pay for the ‘divorce settlement’. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research have exclaimed Brexit negotiations will provide major swings on the market and therefore opportunity.  However they feel that sterling’s good run is coming to an end exchange rates could take a tumble. For me I think it is impossible to predict how Brexit negotiations will unravel. Quite simply if negotiations fall at the first hurdle you would expect a major fall for GBPEUR exchange rates where as if negotiations go well GBPEUR could rise.

In regards to the eurozone clients need to keep their eyes on Mario Draghi and any hint to when he will cut the Q.E program. With inflation continuing to rise and pressure from the leading nations like Germany I wouldn’t be surprised to see this happen sooner rather than later.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year and I have not covered the currency pair you are trading, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn

Sterling Euro falls below 1.20 (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have fallen below 1.20 during today’s trading session for the first time in a few weeks as the Eurozone Consumer Price Index showed an improvement compared to the estimate. The rate was -1.1% for year on year is still negative but at the same time if the data is better than expectation it often strengthens the currency involved.

Also out this morning the Industrial Output survey showed an improvement from 0.4% to 1% for January which is one of the most positive moves for the Euro in recent weeks. The has seen the Euro strengthen against Sterling falling below 1.20 on the mid-market level which is great news for anyone looking to exchange Euros into Sterling.

Tomorrow there ire a few data announcements to watch out for if you have a GBPEUR currency requirement. The UK releases it own industrial production data at 930am  and also manufacturing data for both month on month and year on year.

Arguably the biggest data release for the day will be the NIESR GDP estimate for the last 3 months. Often used as the benchmark for the official announcement which will come in April from the ONS the estimate for the last 3 months is often very accurate. Any negative move could see further falls for GBPEUR exchange rates.

With the Eurozone growth forecast having been raised recently this could see the Euro remain strong for the next few days so if you have a currency requirement and want to save money compared to using a bank to transfer Euros then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.