Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Euro forecast: Will the Euro weaken further in February?

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Here’s our latest Euro forecast for when it’s the best time to buy Euros. The Euro looks likely to remain under pressure in February. This is because there is a major shift in economic sentiment concerning the Euro.

A good example of the shift in sentiment relates to the confirmation last week that Italy is now in a recession. This is not great news for the Eurozone. The whole idea of the ECB, European Central Bank’s, economic policy had been to stave off such issues. For Italy to be back in recession, the third time in a decade, is very worrying.

As early as last year investors were bracing for this kind of news, with the markets very troubled by the recent turns of events we have seen. Clients with a position buying or selling Euros are now faced with a number of challenges to try to mitigate the future uncertainties. Important economic data will include inflation. Previously, low inflation was a trigger for the ECB to embark on a QE, Quantitative Easing, plan which saw the currency lose lots of value.

Best time to buy euros in 2019

2019 is a pivotal year for the Euro. This is because the market will digest the economic output for the Eurozone and match this against the expectations placed on it by the ECB. Clients with a position buying or selling the Euro will need to monitor these developments to establish the extent to which the economic reality matches the previous expectations. If the Eurozone weakens, the euro may fall, making it a favourable time to buy Euros.

Buying Euros? European elections important

For your Euro forecast, important developments ahead are the European elections and also the finality of the QE program, confirmed in December. It might be that the previous expectations for the ECB to consider raising interest rates in 2019, get pushed further back. This could see the Euro lose ground, in turn benefiting you when you buy Euros.

The Euro has performed well in recent years despite a number of economic and political challenges. The outlook ahead is most uncertain and I foresee a great chance of some of the uncertainties spilling over.

If you intend to buy Euros or sell Euros and wish to be kept abreast of the latest Euro forecast, please do not hesitate to get in touch for us to discuss the market and all of your options. I’ll be delighted to help.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson

Pound suffers against the Euro even after positive UK Retail Sales (Tom Holian)

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The Pound vs the Euro has once again come under some pressure after beginning the week positively making gains from the Turkish crisis.

The Pound has started to drift lower even though UK Retail Sales came out better than expected earlier on this morning. We have also seen UK unemployment close to its lowest level on record at 4% earlier this week and typically both sets of economic data would usually give the Pound a boost against the Euro and as we have seen this is not the case which demonstrates how much pressure the Pound is under at the moment vs the single currency.

The main reason for Sterling’s weakness is that of the ongoing Brexit issue and speculation is growing that we could be heading towards a no deal Brexit which could cause huge problems for the Pound if this happens.

The negative news appears to be causing a big problem for investor confidence and in my opinion the main reason for Sterling’s weakness against a number of different currencies including the Euro.

With the UK parliament currently on recess we have not had much further news on the subject of the Brexit talks so it appears as though investors are focusing on the most recent talks held not that long ago which didn’t appear to go very well.

Tomorrow morning the Eurozone releases the latest Current Account data as well as Eurozone inflation data and both have been very positive recently so I think if we see another couple of positive results then this could lead to Euro strength towards the end of this week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for further information or a free quote and  I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Eurozone Economic Data to set the tone for buying Euros with Sterling (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have recently had a resurgence as politically for the time being things are going the right way for the UK.

A fortnight ago Theresa May confirmed that the UK government would seek parliamentary approval to take the Brexit talks forward so the Supreme Court judgement from earlier this week didn’t have too much of an effect as it reaffirmed the government’s stance.

Since the turn of the year and for most of 2016 the rate to buy Euros has been heavily influenced by what is happening politically but early next week the currency markets are likely to be affected by what is going on in the economy.

Indeed, UK GDP for the final quarter of 2016 released on Thursday confirmed that the UK economy has shown a real resilience and the uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote has not had the effect that many had previously predicted six months ago.

This is good news for the Pound and GBPEUR rates could move even further as we enter next week.

On Monday the Eurozone release Consumer Confidence which has struggled recently and following this on Tuesday this is arguably the biggest day in months in terms of economic data releases.

Eurozone inflation, GDP and unemployment data are all due to be published and with so many announcements coming on a single day within minutes of each other we could see huge movements for Sterling vs the Euro on Tuesday morning.

I have personally worked in the foreign exchange industry for almost 15 years for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I am confident that the exchange rates to buy or sell Euros  I am able to offer you will save you money compared to using your own bank.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when buying currency then contact me directly for a free quote and if there is a currency pair that I haven’t covered then get in touch and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Could Sterling break past 1.20 against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

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Sterling vs the Euro has again hit close to a 4 month high after the announcement made by the European Central Bank that they will be extending their Quantitative Easing programme past their original deadline of March 2017.

The current plan was €80bn per month and although the amount has now been reduced to €60bn the plan has been continued which has led to the Euro weakening against the Pound towards the end of this week.

The ECB are clearly having a difficult time as Eurozone inflation is very low and the current QE progamme has not yet had the desired effect. One of the problems that the ECB has is that as they have bought some many bonds they now face the prospect of buying bonds at a loss which is why the Pound has made these gains.

The single currency has fallen close to record lows for the US Dollar and near the best rate to buy Euros since September.

The best rate we have seen for Sterling against the Euro in a while was last Monday morning when the news broke about the Italian referendum however the gains were short lived as the Pound fell owing to the Supreme Court discussions.

I think there is a potential for GBPEUR rates to break through 1.20 as there is a chance that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates and if that’s the case this could result in Dollar strength and Euro weakness. Good news for anyone looking to buy Euros.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer of money.

If you need to buy or sell Euros and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Has Sterling’s rally vs the Euro come to an abrupt end? (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates hit close to a 2 month high earlier this week but ended Friday’s trading session moving in a downwards direction.

Positive economic data put paid to Sterling’s recent bout of good fortune when the Eurozone announced that GDP came out better than expected at 0.6% compared to the estimate of 0.4%

The data was also higher than the final quarter of 2015 and the good news carried on with the release of Eurozone unemployment figures coming in at 10.2%, which was the best data since 2011.

Eurozone inflation however was still worrying low but it appears as though the currency markets have overlooked this data set in favour of the positive GDP data.

The Euro is now sitting at its best level to buy US Dollars since May 2015 and this has helped to support the single currency vs the Pound.

Next week sees the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data and Services data on Wednesday and my expectation is that both these releases will be positive for the Euro providing some good opportunities to sell Euros into Sterling.

My reasoning is that with GDP coming out so strong compared to the expectation then these two announcements could see further gains for the single currency against the Pound.

With just less than 2 months to go before the UK votes in the EU referendum this is clearly going to cause further uncertainty for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates and this has already been apparent during the last month.

If you need to buy or sell Euros over the next 2 months and are worried what the future may hold with the EU referendum then you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

This eliminates the uncertainty and protects you from any adverse movements.

My overall prediction for next week is Euro strength vs the Pound.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Eurozone Inflation to dominate Sterling Euro Rates Today (Tom Holian)

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Eurozone inflation is due out this morning and this could be a big catalyst for Sterling Euro exchange rates this week.

The expectation is for 0.1% from the previous month of 0.3% so anything lower could put pressure on the European Central Bank to look at further Quantitative Easing when they next meet on 10th March.

Falling inflation is a big concern for the Eurozone as it impacts on growth and the ECB first introduced the stimulus during March 2015 in an attempt to combat falling inflation.

At the time GBPEUR rates hit a 6 year high but this time around I would be surprised to see much movement for the currency pair.

Owing to the ongoing uncertainty of a potential Brexit when the UK holds a referendum on 23rd June this is causing a huge loss of confidence for Sterling which is currently being reflected in GBPEUR rates.

Chancellor George Osborne has also said that the further spending cuts could come when he releases the Budget Statement on 16th March.

The global slowdown, further spending cuts and the Brexit are all causing big problems for Sterling Euro exchange rates.

Therefore, if you need to buy Euros between now and June and are worried about the negative impact of the UK referendum then you may wish to consider buying a Forward Contract which allows you to fix and exchange rate for the future.

The is particularly useful if you needs to send funds to Europe when buying a house abroad.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively call me on 01494-787478 and ask to speak to Tom Holian

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Inflation Data to set the tone for Sterling Euro Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have rebounded from Friday’s trading session following the lowest rates to buy Euros since January 2015.

Both UK inflation and Eurozone inflation data are released tomorrow morning and both are likely to have an impact on central bank policy and therefore Sterling Euro exchange rates.

With UK inflation having fallen recently this has put off a UK interest rate hike as to combat falling infatuation a central bank would typically cut interest rates in order to get consumers spending.

Oil prices have fallen dramatically recently and owing to the UK’s reliance on the North Sea oil industry this is causing problems for the Pound as it will clearly have a negative impact on GDP and therefore Sterling.

Eurozone inflation data is released at 10am and this could reinforce the ECB’s decision to extend Quantitative Easing for another 6 months back in December.

Indeed, the Euro has strengthened by as much as 12 cents in the last 6 weeks creating some excellent opportunities to sell Euros.

Arguably if inflation doesn’t cause big movements for Sterling Euro exchange rates then it will be the ECB press conference on Thursday when ECB president Mario Draghi will take centre stage.

His comments have been mixed of late and we could see huge volatility towards the end of the week.

In order to eliminate the risk of potential negative movement you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a small deposit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively call  01494-787-478 and ask for me directly. I look forward to hearing from you. 

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Buying or selling a property in Europe? Save money on exchange rates (Tom Holian)

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As we make our New Year’s resolutions and plan for what we’re thinking of doing next year if you’re considering making a currency transfer then it’s important to think about using a currency broker.

There are the obvious options of using a bank to send funds abroad or send them back to the UK but this can be an expensive mistake as the exchange rates available aren’t as competitive as using a foreign exchange specialist.

Having personally worked in the industry for over twelve years I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates but I will also be able to make the service stress free and help with the timings to ensure you buy your currency at the right time.

As we enter the new year the big news for Sterling Euro exchange rates will come in the form of Eurozone inflation data out next week.

Since the ECB extended QE in December we have seen GBPEUR rates fall by 7 cents and this was an attempt to combat falling inflation so if inflation rises we could be in for another period of Euro strength vs Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Sterling Euro Rates at highest level since August (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro rates are now at their best exchange rate to buy Euros for 3 months.

Even with Eurozone inflation now improving and Eurozone unemployment this has done nothing to strengthen the single currency and in fact Sterling has gained since the data releases at the end of this week.

End of month flows which can often have a big impact on exchange rates saw the Pound finally break 1.40 as predicted in some of my previous articles.

The ECB is concerned about low inflation and recently suggested that further Quantitative Easing could take place before the end of the year.

This has concerned investors and caused huge weakness during October.

Indeed, Sterling has gained by as much as 7 cents this month alone!

ECB president Mario Draghi is due to address the markets on Tuesday and any negative comments could see Sterling gain even further against the Euro creating some excellent buying opportunities.

On Thursday the Bank of England meets to discuss interest rates.

With the UK inflation level currently below 0% we could see BoE governor Mark Carney attempt to talk down the value of the Pound.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Sterling Euro Exchange Rates and the Impact of QE (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have bounced back from their 8 month low to buy Euros following on from better than expected UK unemployment data released last week.

With UK Public Sector Net Borrowing figures published tomorrow morning this measures the amount of debt that the UK government holds which could see a short term weakening for the Pound.

Also this week we see the release of UK Retail Sales and any change to the expected level could see Sterling Euro volatility.

UK inflation is currently below 0% which is clearly a worry but Eurozone inflation is also below 0% and this could signal the ECB needing to add more QE to the current amount.

With the European Central Bank due to meet this Thursday afternoon any hints to further QE could signal Euro weakness.

Although I don’t expect any change this month for monetary policy I do think it is a matter of time before the ECB thinks about more QE as this could be used a a tool to stop falling inflation.

Thursday’s press conference is likely to cause the biggest amount of volatility for the week and any mention of QE coming at some stage could weaken the single currency providing a good opportunity to buy Euros.

 

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Eurozone Inflation and the risk to Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have had a huge rally today following on from yesterday’s positive unemployment figures for the UK economy.

This put an abrupt halt to the fall witnessed by the Pound after Tuesday’s lower than expected UK inflation figures which came out at -0.1%.

US inflation data published in the early afternoon showed a rise in inflation giving more hopes of an interest rate hike for the world’s leading economy.

Typically this would lead to Dollar strength and Euro weakness and in this case this has helped the Pound gain vs the single currency.

With Eurozone inflation due out at 10am tomorrow morning if the figures came out lower than the expected -0.1% year on year this could send Sterling even higher vs the single currency following the release. The reason why is that this would add more pressure to the European Central Bank to consider introducing more QE which damages the value of the Euro.

Eurozone Trade Balance data also comes out in the morning so if both releases come in negative this could provide a very good opportunity to buy Euros at the end of this week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared yo using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

US Jobs Data causes Massive Strength for the Euro vs Sterling (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have fallen this afternoon following on from the lower than expected jobs data this afternoon from the US.

The expectation was for over 205,000 new jobs but the US economy only added 142,000 new jobs last month according to the report.

The poor figures have seen a sell off for the US Dollar and global investors have moved into the Euro which has seen the single currency gain against both Dollar and Sterling this afternoon.

The data means that an interest rate hike for the US this month now seems unlikely which is the reason for the movement on GBPEUR exchange rates.

Even with Eurozone inflation now measuring below 0% this is clearly worrying for the Eurozone however this data has not seen a negative impact for the Euro as UK GDP has also been downgraded from 2.6% to 2.4% this week.

Next Tuesday evening ECB president Mario Draghi takes centre stage to address the markets and this could see further volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.