Tag Archives: forecast
When is the best time to sell Euros?
The Euro has come under a little pressure and we have seen profit taking and a realigining of rates following last weeks huge moves. What can we expect this week?
Well the all important event is Thursday’s Interest Rate Meeting between the ECB (European Central Bank) and the BoE (Bank of England). No actual change in economic policy is predicted but it is likely we will see Euro strength. I would expect this to happen because despite the Spanish recesssion being deeper than thought and underlying Eurozone fears confidence is very high in Europe. Spanish and Italian bonds are proving highly attractive investments as are European stockmarkets. The knock on effect is more people buying Euros and their price increasing.
Is the Euro too strong? Well after such a big move we are bound to see some kind of correction soon. Argualbly we have already see this today with GBPEUR up over 1.16 and EURUSD back below 1.36. Such unprecedented movements highlight the importance of making careful preparations for your currency purchase well ahead of schedule. Today I have many clients who have been greedy and held on throughout the last few weeks when rates were above 1.20. They refused to buy at a rate lower than 1.25 because they held a belief that it would go back there. Complacency is a very dangerous thing and I have had the sad news of some clients buying property overseas having to cancel their purchase due to exchange rate movements.
When should I trade this week? The first thing to do is make sure you are ready to trade. Hanging around watching the rate tick up and down will not get you anywhere. Getting all your ducks in a row and planning ahead could potentially save you thousands. As a specialist currency broker we are assisting clients who need to make currency transfers understand the processes involved as well ensure they get the best deals and information on when to trade. For a quick run through of your situation feel free to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
Aside from Thrusday which I think will be the most important day, tomorrow we have some UK services data and then Manufacturing and Industrial Production data for the UK due Thursday. All in all it is a fairly quiet week on the data front but this is a good time to assess your position. Euro buyers crying into their milk Friday were pleasantly surprised to be gaining an extra €1230 today on a £100,000 purchase. This is just a brief respite however as Euro sellers are without doubt though the main winners this year, at high to low if you are selling Euros you are gaining an exta £6000 for every €100,000 sold!
It looks like the rate will remain volatile presenting both opportunities for buyers and sellers - to stick my neck on the line and on balance I think it will probably drop further towards the end of the week as Mario and the ECB talk up the situation. If you are holding on buying Euros it would be sensible to start making a contingency plan as 1.20 looks a very long way off. For a free, no obligation discussion of your transfer and to be kept up to speed with all the important news please feel free to contact me Jonny directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or of course call 01494 787 478. I am wholly confident I can undercut your current deal and can offer specialist assistance on when to make your trade. Last week I saved a client using one of our competitors £750 and you could be next.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Are you buying or selling euros? Where next for the Euro? Euro forecast
Euro exchange rates shave clawed back some of the ground lost during yesterdays trading as Angela Merkel (the German Chancellor) voiced support for the ECB and Mario Draghi – backing up the head of the ECB’s stance that they will do ‘whatever it takes’ to keep the Euro alive. This may have created a window of opportunity for any euro sellers as I still firmly believe the ongoing euro crisis will inevitably rear its ugly head in the future and cause a detrimental affect to the value of the euro. To me, particularly those looking at the pairing of GBP/EUR, should take stock of their position and may well wish to utilise the 1 cent swing seen in the past 24 hours. Yesterday the UK released much better than expected retail sales figures and with the Olympic affect to come - will we begin to creep out of recession? Certainly I hope so and should data from the UK continue to be positve, and certainly better than forecast, you are likely to see sterling strengthen as a result.
At the moment the direction for euro is firmly in the hands of the ECB. We are constantly hearing that the powers that be will support the euro at all costs, however very little policy, other than the continuation of the ECB (European Central Bank) bond buying programme appears to be coming out of the ECB headquarters. I personally think the market needs to see something a little stronger and many analysts are eagerly awaiting the next ECB meeting in September (first Thursday of the month at 12:45). What will they do to reduce the borrowing costs for Spain and Italy? Will we see an interest rate cut? Should nothing come out of Frankfurt in early September I would expect a large sell off for Euros and a devaluation across most majors, however any strong policies and expect euro strength, particularly against the US dollar – as risk appetite increases and the dollar weakens as a result of its continued ‘safe haven’ tag.
Should you currently have to buy or sell euros (whether it be for a property completion/sale, emigration, or a corporate transaction) and be in a bit of quandary as when best to exchange, then please do feel free to contact me to discuss your transfer in more detail. I work for currencies.co.uk a specialist foreign exchange broker assisting thousands of clients with all manner of currency transfers. As part of the service we keep an active look at exchange rates for our clients passing on market knowledge to help you make the best decision for your conversion. To benefit from the service or to run through the multiple contracts we can offer tailored to your requirement then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787478
Spanish Borrowing Costs hit Record High but Rumours of Further QE Hindering GBP
The euro has had a turbulent ride since the start of 2012, as it has fought against the stigma and public backlash created in the region by high levels of debt, growing unemployment and poor growth forecasts. With so much negativity surrounding the EU it is no wonder the single currency has struggled to make any serious inroads against the major currencies, as seemingly any positive news is quickly followed by further negative reports of another faltering economy (enter Cyprus).
We are now approaching somewhat of a crossroads, as the Greek election results on Sunday could well map out the short-term future of the single currency and how it will respond in the coming weeks against GBP and the USD in particular. We initially had been hearing noises coming from Greece that the anti-austerity Syriza party were leading the way and could well become the majority party. If these rumours are ultimately correct we could see some initial EUR weakness, as further uncertainty will grip the markets. The lingering feeling is more than likely to be that if there is no agreement on austerity, then surely the agreed bailout fund will be removed and Greece will ultimately default on their debts. The only question that’s left then is how can Greece remain in the EU?
However, as with most political elections all is not quite as it seems and today we have been hearing further rumours that in fact it may be the pro bailout party that is leading the race. If this is accurate then we could potentially see EUR strength, as the markets could see it as a sign of intent that the new Greek government really will be doing everything necessary to remain a functioning part of the eurozone.
Spanish 10 year bond auctions hit a new record high today at over 7%, the level Greece, Ireland and Portugal were at when they required bailouts. Therefore don’t be surprised if the 100 billion euro that has been earmarked for Spain’s recovery will more than likely be the first of many tranches, as in my opinion 100 billion would not even cover the money that has been taken out of Spanish banks in the past three months!
At time of writing GBP/EUR rates were sitting 1.2320, down over a cent on yesterday’s trading. This could be partly due to the rumours circulating regarding Greece and the pro bailout party, along with yesterday’s rumours here in the UK that we may be in line for another round of QE (Quantitative Easing) before the end of the year.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement or would like to be kept up with the latest market movement, including the latest news on Greece and the Spanish economies please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.
1.20 rears its ugly head again!
Well market movements this week prove the Euro rate is anything but predictable! Just as we had had some glimmers of hope for those selling Euros we find a move back towards the 1.20 mark. Good news for buyers, bad news for sellers! This just goes to show how the bailout for Greece isn’t really worth the paper it is written on. Thursday was the turning point when Eurozone Unemployment data showed an increase not just in recent Unemployment figures but also a revision upwards on previous months. I pointed out this could be a market mover earlier in the week and once again was proved right. This could compound the problems of the expected Eurozone recession we are more than likely in the midst of…
Will I be able to get 1.20?
A popular question for buyers and sellers alike! The best way to try and secure this rate is to utilise our range of contract options, notably the ‘Limit’ order and the ‘Stop / Loss’. These orders which I will outline in more detail below are the best way to secure your ideal rate.
Limit Order – You choose a level you want to trade at. It is always put into the market at a better price than is available. Our automated trading systems will then watch the market and as soon as this level becomes available, even if only for a second, you get your deal automatically booked.
Stop / Loss – Identical to a Limit but you choose a lower level worse than current rates. This order protects your exchange rate and guarantees you get no worse than this level if the market moves against you.
The current market is extremely unpredictable at the moment with no clear direction being established. Just as it looks like the rate is going to start a move in one direction it is being pulled to and fro. There has been a real confidence boost in recent weeks as US and UK data shows improvements. The ECB LTRO (see earlier posts) has injected confidence into the fragile European banking sector and stock markets globally have hit pre-crisis levels. The flipside is it looks like Europe is about to enter a worrying recession and central banks are throwing money around left, right and centre. The uptake of the LTRO is for me actually quite worrying! Sure there is all this money being made available but where is it going? Is it too little too late for Europe?
In my opinion we are still in the depths of a credit crunch and even the UK government, praised for its deficit reduction measures still risks losing its hallowed AAA credit rating… The thinking is that all of this money will help to boost growth to stimulate the recoveries to the point the various economies can stand on their own two feet. Only time will tell whether this is successful…
If you are one of the 20,000 visitors who stops by each month for information and are looking for more information why not contact me direct or fill in the contact form? We offer a completely free unbiased service that will allow you to not only double check you are getting the best deal but also explore all your options with a specialist currency broker. The banks are not your only option and if dealing with another broker it is always worth getting a second opinion. It could save you money! We have saved thousands of people thousands of pounds, euros and dollars and have never had trouble making sure anyone who contacts us gets the very best rate.
My direct email is jmw@currencies.co.uk and look forward to hearing from you
Recession On the Cards For Both The UK And Eurozone So Which Way For Sterling Euro Rates?
The recently elected head of the ECB Mario Draghi has hinted that Europe may experience a “mild recession for the end of the year”. The Eurozone grew by 0.2% in Q3 according to official figures, however the disparity between Germany and France on one hand (growing by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively) and Greece on the other (shrinking by 5.2%) couldn’t be more stark. In my view the debt crisis in Europe is likely to continue to run whilst many of the smaller economies fail to grow to finance their national debt- a situation I cannot see changing in the next year for the likes of Greece. An interest rate cut soon, despite ECB comments on price stability, also cannot be ruled out to help the PIIGS but this again highlights the problem of the “one-size fits all” Euro approach.
On the other hand UK unemployment is still on the rise, and many analysts have forecast a 50%-70% chance the UK will be back in recession by the end of 2012. Certainly Mervyn King’s comments yesterday seem to point to some form of contraction- he stated inflation will come down from 5.2% to under 2% by the end of next year, yet they are unlikely to increase interest rates. In other words prices are going to drop very sharply – in my mind this can only happen if oil, food and energy costs come down naturally, or if companies slash prices in an effort to stay afloat! It seems more likely the second option in my view.
So with the Eurozone struggling, and the UK in a parlous state, it looks as though sterling euro will remain fairly rangebound between 1.14 to 1.18 in the next few months so any buy north of 1.17 and any sell around 1.15 would be my picks for when to strike immediately. The key beneficiary in the sterling euro turmoil will likely be the USD as fears over Europe as a whole drive investors into the safety in the greenback.
One word of caution though is to watch out for some volatile swings in and around Christmas. Over the last couple of years this period has seen some of the biggest swings- two years ago we reached near parity! With many traders on holiday, and a lot of companies closed down for the silly season, much thinner trading volumes can cause bigger swings on the market so be warned!
If you have an upcoming currency purchase then please e-mail cmg@currencies.co.uk
Currencies.co.uk top the currency tables again… Certainly food for thought – Worth contacting them to compare against your bank or current provider according to the Telegraph – Get preferential rates by quoting Euro Rate Forecast on your enquiry!!
The Telegraph have released a table of the best exchange rate providers and i’m pleased to say the company I work for has come out top… Please feel free to view the article I have placed the link below, it is also on Yahoo finance. Should you make an enquiry then by quoting EURO RATE FORECAST you will be put through to either myself, Jonathan or James (the authors of this site) and treated with the highest level of customer service whilst receiving commercial rates of exchange as I do for all of my regular readers.
EURO Update
Yesterday the euro gained happily against both the dollar and sterling following better than expected unemployment figures. These were released mid morning and showed an improvement from 10% to 9.9% which does not sound much of an improvement but does show that the euro zone is starting to recover. Later this week tomorrow they release their own Interest Rate decision along with GDP figures.
Speculation has continued to build in Europe as one of the ECB’s governing council members, Mario Draghi, said recently that “inflation is forcing policy makers to focus more on the timing of future interest-rate increases.” They have now kept interest rates on hold since May 2009 at 1%.
GDP figures are also widely expected to remain on hold but with increased productivity recently from Europe there may be a surprising result. If these figures are different from the forecast expect early volatility.
Euro Rate forecast Readers – Make your Sterling Euro predicitons for September and win £1500!!
Our friends over at Foreign Currency Direct are once again running their fantastic, free to enter competition where you can win £1500 merely by having a guess at where Sterling Euro will be at the end of the month.
It takes no more than two minutes to enter and is completely free of charge so why not click on the banner below and have a go.
I ended up around 1.5cents out last time… not bad over the course of a whole month! My guess this time is 1.1739 – the month ahead I believe may be tough for Sterling – Lets try and get the first Euro Rate Forecast winner this time round, you have nothing to lose!
Test your own skill and judgement against the Euro Rate Forecast team and win yourself £1000 Great currency guessing competition!
Do you fancy yourself to be able to predict what the GBP/EUR rate will be on 31st August at close of play?? Our friends at Foreign Currency Direct are running a competition which is completely free to enter and takes just a minute of your time… I have guessed 1.2297 but feel free to comment on this post and see if you can get closer than me….. If anyone gets it spot on from this site then I may offer a bonus prize as it shows the high calibre of Euro Rate Forecast readers!
Don’t delay – have a go today and feel free to tell everyone you work with and all of your friends!!!
Euro may weaken today as rumours of poor stress test results in Spain – Forecast against Pound, Dollar and all major currencies
The Euro faces a tough day ahead with the result of the bank stress tests and the early morning rumour is that a number of Spanish banks have performed rather poorly.
The full result comes out at around 17:00pm U.K time which may be a tactical move should they be expecting poor results as it won’t give the markets as a whole a great deal of time to react.
Obviously the currency markets continue to move over the course of the weekend so it may be prudent to consider the various options available to you inclusive of limit and stop orders to ensure you don’t get a nasty surprise on Monday morning.
Get in touch with one of the team here today for information on how these work by filling in the contact form on the left hand side of this page and a currency expert will be straight in touch, we can save you €1000s over using your high street bank along with offering the highest level of customer service.
