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The impact of an interest rate hike on the Pound vs the Euro (Tom Holian)

November 1, 2017 by Tom Holian

The Bank of England are due to meet at midday tomorrow to announce their latest interest rate decision.

The expectation is that we’ll see an interest rate hike of 0.25% which will be the first rate hike in a decade.

The central bank have been seemingly backed into a corner as with UK inflation hitting 3% this is one of their main responsibilities and I think they have been left with little choice but to raise rates tomorrow.

However, although interest rates are likely to go up tomorrow the real movement could come when BoE governor Mark Carney takes centre stage at 1230pm.

He has suggested a number of times in recent weeks that any rate hike will be ‘limited and gradual’ so I think his tone may be slightly dovish and this could potentially cause a wobble for Sterling Euro exchange rates.

Overall I think Sterling’s future will continue to be dominated by what happens with the ongoing Brexit talks so even if we do see some gains for the Pound tomorrow the gains could be relatively short term.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying a Euros with Pounds it will certainly be worth keeping a close eye out on what happens tomorrow. For a free quote call me directly on 01494787478 and ask for Tom Holian when calling.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as I can.

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Filed Under: Economic Information, Euro Weakness Tagged With: Bank of England, Brexit talks, buying euros, interest rate hike, interest rate hikes, Mark Carney, selling euros, Tom Holian

Expect major volatility this week for GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

October 16, 2017 by Dayle Littlejohn

Tomorrow morning the European Central bank and the Bank of England will release their latest inflation numbers. Both releases have the potential to influence monetary policy decisions that will be released towards the end of this month and early next.

The European Central Bank are close to tapering their quantitative easing program which would provide strength for the Euro. President of the European central bank Mario Draghi eluded to making the bulk of monetary policy decisions at the next interest rate decision on the October 26th meeting. If inflation rises further I believe there is a good chance that he could hint to tapering early next year, which could have a positive impact for euro sellers.

The Bank of England over the last 8 weeks have been announcing that an interest rate hike is on the horizon due to inflation levels reaching 2.9%. If inflation breaks through 3%, I believe the UK will have no choice but to raise rates on November 2nd however due to the pounds surge in September I wouldn’t be surprised to see inflation remain at 2.9%.

This evening UK Prime Minister Theresa May will meet with key EU officials to discuss Brexit and what appears to failing negotiations. Any news releases overnight have the potential to shift exchange rates by the matter of cents. Furthermore later in the week EU leaders will meet at the European Council meeting. Brexit negotiations will be discussed and it will be interesting to hear head EU negotiator Michel Barnier stance as last week exchange rates were up and down like a yo yo off the back of his press conferences.

If you are looking to save money when converting pounds and euros feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

Dayle Littlejohn

Filed Under: Euro Strength Tagged With: Bank of England, Brexit, buy euros, currency transfers, European central bank, interest rate hike, mario draghi, save money, sell euros, UK Prime Minister Theresa May

Pound Euro rates – Brexit, Inflation and Interest Rates (Tom Holian)

June 16, 2017 by Tom Holian

The Pound gained vs the Euro during yesterday’s trading session following a surprise change in the voting pattern from the Monetary Policy Committee which confirmed a vote of 5-3 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold.

For many months there has only been one vote in favour of an interest rate hike and as inflation has been spiraling in an upwards direction this has led to the change in the votes.

The recent expectation is that interest rates will be kept on hold for the foreseeable future but with inflation hitting its highest level in almost 4 years this is becoming a real concern for the British economy.

The current target for UK inflation as set by the Bank of England is for 2% but the figure came out at 2.9% which is way above the target.

We are currently in a hung parliament and when this happened previously it took 20 days for the Lib Dems and the Tories to form a coalition and at the moment the talks between the Tories and the DUP are dragging on.

The next stumbling block for the Pound will come soon as the UK is due to begin Brexit negotiations next week.

Brexit Minister David Davis and the EU’s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier will be meeting in Belgium and I think this will cause problems for the Pound vs all major currencies including the Euro as we go into next week.

If you need to buy or sell Euros in the near future in order to avoid the uncertainty it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

To find out more information or a free quote I have been working for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates so feel free to email me directly.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Filed Under: Economic Information, The Week Ahead Tagged With: bank beating exchange rates, Brexit, interest rate hike, Major Currencies, Pound vs Euro, Tom Holian

UK Public sector borrowing down

February 22, 2011 by Stephen Eakins

This morning UK figure showed a larger than expected surplus on Public Sector Net Borrowing. The figures have been seen as positive for sterling as it is in line with their fiscal targets. In early trading sterling gaining over 0.5% against the euro making a difference of over €1,000 on a £200,000 transfer. The only concern is that the National Statistic mentioned that due to strong January figures Februarys may be lower than normal.  So the figures in 4 weeks will give a better “real” outlook of the recovery of the UK with how much revenue it is collecting through tax’s.

The focus on the market still lies with speculation on tomorrows Bank of England minutes and the middle east turmoil effecting commodity prices. I would expect sterling to gain further this afternoon up to the event but be wary as this speculation also happened with the inflation figures last week which was wrongly placed.  When the inflation figures were less positive and the markets fell back. This could happen tomorrow so todays rate, close to a 6 week high may be lost.

If you would like more information feel free to contact us and either myself, Jonny or Dan will get in contact.

Stephen Eakins
http://www.eurorateforecast.com

Filed Under: Economic Information, Euro Weakness, The Week Ahead Tagged With: Bank of England, interest rate hike, public sector net borrowing, sterling forecast

Will an interest rate in the UK or the Euro help or hinder?

February 17, 2011 by Stephen Eakins

As speculation continues to mount about when the UK will raise interest rates it is worth thinking about what will be the reaction in the currency market.

Generally in the past charts show that when an interest rate is made that country benefits from more investment and that the respective currency normally gains, but these examples are all 2-3 years old before the recent financial crises. The truth is that no one knows what the currency markets will do, hence the saying “more is lost through indecision than a poor decision.” So we have to ask ourselves whether we think that an interest rate hike will actually have a positive benefit to the currency and consequently whether it is worth waiting for a raise. (That is if they do and if they do in the UK before other.)

The facts stand that the UK has double the target level of inflation, new taxes that are yet to be felt by the consumer and that retail figures are key to growth. So it is clear that for the UK to continue to recover money needs to flow and households need to continue to spend. However the average UK household has enjoyed  low mortgage payments for a number of years that have helped spending. So I think it is fair to say if mortage repayments go up there will be actually less spending and therefore less growth. You can see the difficulty felt my the market in forecasting whether GBPEUR, GBPUSD and rest will go up if a raise is announced?

It does seem clear though that as speculation continues rates will rise so it may be prudent to take these opportunites if you have a exchange to make.

Stephen Eakins
http://www.eurorateforecast.com

Filed Under: Economic Information, The Week Ahead Tagged With: gbpeur, GBPUSD, inflation, interest rate hike, sterling forecast

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