Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and impact on Sterling Euro Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

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The currency markets for Pound Sterling vs Euro have had a very quiet start to the week with little movement.

However, on Thursday the Bank of England will for the first time publish their minutes immediately after the interest rate decision.

With BoE governor Mark Carney having recently suggested that the UK could be ready to raise interest rates Thursday’s meeting is likely to be volatile for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates.

Although I don’t think any change in monetary policy will happen for quite some time any mention of any members thinking about a rate hike could give Sterling a boost against the single currency.

Sterling is still trading very high against the Euro owing to the ongoing uncertainty in Greece and their stand off against the IMF.

With GDP in the UK looking positive at the moment and the Quarterly Inflation Report due on Thursday any increase for inflation could also send the Pound in an upwards direction on Thursday.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Why has Sterling fallen against the Euro recently (Tom Holian)

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Exchange rates for the currency pair GBP vs EUR have fallen by almost 3 cents since the 2 year high hit in late July. The reason for the previous highs was because it was suggested that UK interest rates may go up before the end of the year but recent data has put that in doubt.

Shortly after the release of The Quarterly Inflation Report last week Bank of England governor Mark Carney was asked to comment on interest rates but he said he would not discuss it at that time which saw Sterling fall quickly against the single currency as investors saw it as a sign that the likelihood of a rate hike is further away.

Indeed, the inflation data out on Tuesday showed a fall from 1.9% down to 1.6% which again saw Sterling fall. The Bank of England’s target for inflation is 2% and if inflation rises the common policy to be used is to increase interest rates. Therefore, as the data was lower this has spooked investors.

UK Retail Sales growth was weaker than many expectations as they went up by just 0.1% compared to the expected 0.4%. With the retail industry the biggest measure of GDP then a fall is likely to have a negative impact on future growth. Again, another reason for the fall for the Pound vs Euro.

The Bank of England minutes showed that 2 on the 9 members voted for a rate hike from 0.25% to 0.75% but owing to the inflation data I think next month we could see a change of mind.

With the bank holiday weekend coming up if you’d like to get more information about saving money when buying Euros then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Can The Euro Hold It’s Gians From The last 2 Days- Sadly I Doubt It (Colm Gilhooly)

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The Euro has clawed back some ground today both the pound and the Dollar,  as Carney gave a fairly evasive performance about the prospect of UK interest hikes yesterday, and US GDP didnt exactly set the world on fire today.

European data recently has been disappointing, but it seems markets are focussing more on interest rate expectations at the moment which has caused a loss of momentum for sterling.  The next ECB rate decision isnt until next week so most Euro focus will be on whether Draghi signals further action in future (I am sure they are unlikely to do anything in August given it is the holiday season and they have just cut this month).  If he can calm things down it could provide a small window for Euro sellers.

However Mark Carney is due to speak again tomorrow morning and it wouldnt be a surprise to see sterling move on the back of this or the GDP revisions due out at the end of the week, so if you are not of a gambling nature then you may want to get in contact soon.  Feel free to email me Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Colm G

Retail Figures Lower Than Forecast But Overall The Pound Is Well Poised Against The Euro (Colm Gilhooly)

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This week we have seen slightly lower than forecast inflation in the UK, all 9 members of the Bank of England vote to hold interest rates this month, and retail figures this morning came in slightly lower than the expected levels, however the pound is still pretty well place against the Euro.  Mark Carney has increased speculation over an earlier than expected UK interest rate, and whilst all 9 voted against a hike, they did say they were surprised markets hadnt considered a rise this year.  It means sterling could benefit from better interest returns giving the pound a lot more support, just at a time when the ECB are cutting rates in Europe and offering a negative deposit rate to banks!

To my mind Europe still has years ahead of low interest rates and stimulus programs to see economic recovery if the experience of the US and UK in the last few years is anything to go by.  Therefore I think the Euro will experience a slow bleed over the course of the year, particularly as the US last night raised their expectations for short term interest rates.  If you are selling property in Europe then I would be inclined to move away from the Euro sooner rather than later to ensure what are pretty poor looking levels dont become truly miserable.  If you would like help with a currency transfer then feel free to contact Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk

PS let’s hope England can win tonight, go on a World Cup run and further stimulate the economy!

Colm G

Will the Pound continue to rise against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have been trading around 1.23 since late last week as the interest rate cut in the Eurozone helped to cement Sterling’s position against the single currency.

Data due out at 93a0m this morning is likely to confirm the recent good news for the British economy and the data is expected to be good which could send Sterling up shortly after the release.

Also later out today is the NIESR estimate of UK GDP which will provide us with some clues as to how the UK is performing and I also think the news will be positive sending GBPEUR up today.

Tomorrow could see the biggest impact for Sterling vs Euro as UK unemployment data is released.

A few months ago Bank of England governor Mark Carney suggested that once unemployment fell below 7% we could see interest rates rise. This has since been taken off the agenda but could put pressure on the BoE to put up rates sooner than expected.

Sterling against the Euro is now 8 cents higher than at its lowest point during 2013 and it is easy to think whilst exchange rates are this high it could be tempting to see how much higher they go. However, in January 2013 we saw a huge fall on GBPEUR as the markets dropped by 5% in only a few weeks meaning the difference of £4,000 on a €100,000 currency transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank the contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

EUR Rallies Against GBP During Monday’s Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

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Matt Vassallo

The EUR has made gains against its GBP counterpart during Monday’s trading, pushing GBP/EUR levels back below 1.22 on the exchange. The single currency had lost ground against Sterling last week, following a positive statement by Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney. GBP/EUR rates are likely to remain volatile for the foreseeable future, with both economies showing an improvement over recent months.  It is likely that the pace of recovery for each region will have a major impact on the how the markets react to the currency pair over the coming months.

Anyone with a EUR requirement will be keeping a close eye on Construction and Manufacturing data due out tomorrow and Wednesday, which if positive, could give the EUR a boost.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively, you can contact one of our experienced brokers on 0044 1494 787 478.

Matt Vassallo

A Volatile Morning for EUR Exchange Rates (Matthew Vassallo)

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Matt Vassallo

It’s been a volatile morning for EUR exchange rates, with positive moves against GBP, USD & AUD. GBP/EUR exchange rates moved up yesterday following Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney’s speech, where he spoke positively about the UK’s recovery and future growth forecasts but following the European Central Bank (ECB) monthly report this morning the EUR has started to realign itself, after yesterday’s loses.

ECB president Mario Draghi was also speaking yesterday and it does seem as if the Eurozone recovery process is gathering pace, with economic data improving across the region. It is likely much of the market attention moving forward will be focused on whether the BoE or ECB will be raising their base interest rate from 0.5% and 0.25% respectively.

Anyone with a EUR requirement will be keeping a close eye on tomorrows Gross Domestic Product figures, which if positive, could give the ERU a further boost.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively, you can contact one of our experienced brokers on 0044 1494 787 478.

Matt Vassallo

EUR Loses Ground During Tuesday’s Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

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Matt Vassallo

There were further market loses for the EUR today following the release of this morning’s UK GDP figures. The EUR had started to make some inroads against GBP last week, following BoE governor Mark Carney’s announcement that UK interest rates were likely to stay at the current levels for some time. This announcement dampened expectations, as there was a feeling that we could see an interest rate hike in the UK sooner rather than later.

These gains have quickly disappeared over the past couple of days and today’s positive UK GDP figures have helped to further support GBP’s position.

We have also seen loses against both the USD and the AUD and all eyes will now be on Wednesday’s US FED interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. With new incoming FED governor Janet Yellen taking up her position from February 1st, it is likely we will soon see the USD strengthen as her policies are outlined and instigated and the market uncertainty that has been caused by her arrival will be removed.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and need to be kept up to date with all the latest market developments, or simply wish to compare our exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively, you can contact one of our experienced brokers today on 0044 1494 787 478.

Matt Vassallo

Inflation causes Sterling to Fall (Tom Holian)

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We saw Sterling exchange rates fall during yesterday’s trading session following the UK Inflation data which came out at 930am. Inflation seems appears relatively high and although petrol prices have been falling over the last few weeks the cost of living has been rising.

CPI was measured at 2.7% and although the Bank of England have said it’s not a concern for the time being this is still surely cause for a bit of concern. Analysts expect UK inflation to remain above 2.5% for the next 18 months and if this is the case we could see interest rates raised prior to the UK unemployment level dropping below 7%.

Today we have jobs data at 930am for the UK. Mark Carney has mentioned on a number of different occasions that interest rates are unlikely to be altered until UK unemployment drops below 7% so this morning’s report will be a key factor for the movement of Sterling over the next few days trading.

The Euro rate has been supported by the recent events in the US and with 24 hours to go before a decision must be made regarding the US debt ceiling expect the markets to be volatile in the short term.

If you have a requirement to either buy or sell Euros feel free to contact me directly via email Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

How to get the Best EUR Exchange Rates? Volaitle Day for the GBP/EUR Following BoE Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has had an extremely volatile day on the markets following two key data releases this morning. Both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep their base interest rates on hold as expected but it was the BoE’s warning not to expect a rise in interest rates anytime soon that completely knocked market confidence. Sterling dropped very quickly against the EUR and it wasn’t until Mario Draghi’s press conference, where he said something similar about Eurozone interest rates, that GBP/EUR levels started to realign themselves.

The EUR has continued to hold firm against Sterling despite an improvement in UK economic data and on-going concerns over the economic health of key Eurozone countries, including the current debt crisis in Portugal. I did think we may see Sterling gain some momentum prior to Mark Carney’s appointment as new BoE governor this month but if anything the scene was set for a negative move for GBP. Further Quantitative Easing has been touted and with the UK desperately trying narrow its trade deficit, something that will only happen if the Pound loses market value and/or Eurozone production levels increase, it was always possible we would see the EUR start to strengthen in the short-term.

EUR/USD levels also dropepd below 1.30 today for the first time since the end of May, following Mario Draghi’s negative statement regarding Eurozone interest rates. The Federal Reserve (FED) have also decided to reign in their recent QE programme and this to could have a positive affect on the USD, as invetsors will view the US economy as healthier and no longer in need of monetary assistance.

If you would like to discuss any of the recent market developments further or are keen to compare our exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 787 478 or email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Matt Vassallo

Bank of England & European Central Bank Keep Interest Rates on Hold (Matthew Vassallo)

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Thursday has seen some major moves in the currency market, following a busy day of economic data releases. The EUR seems to be holding on for dear life against the Pound at the moment, although we have seen GBP find a lot of resistance around 1.18. In contrast however the single currency has surged against the USD, moving over 2 cents from the low of the day and providing USD buyers with some of the best levels on the currency pair this year.

Today’s key data for anyone with a EUR requirement, was the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and Mario Draghi’s subsequent press conference. As expected interest rates were kept on hold and there was no mention of further monetary policy. Whilst the Pound may be enjoying its run against the EUR at present, I do believe the arrival of incoming BoE governor Mark Carney could change the landscape dramatically. There is a lot of talk that he will be instigating aggressive rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE), with the hope that it will devalue the Pound enough to get the Eurozone trading with us again and in turn this should shorten our trade deficit and improve the overall health of the UK economy. For this reason I would suggest anyone looking to buy EUR should consider their positions imminently and those looking to sell should be keeping their eyes firmly fixed on developments over the coming weeks.

Here at www.eurorateforecast.com we are able to provide our clients not only with award winning rates of exchange but a bespoke service designed to give you the client, as much insight into the markets as possible. If you would like to find out the type of rates or contracts we offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, then please call us on 0044 1494 787 478 or email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Matt Vassallo