Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Pound Loses Election Highs

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The pound last week lost all of its gains from Boris Johnson’s large majority in the general election on the 12th December. At the time of writing, the pound is 1.1742 against the euro, and 1.30174 against the dollar. This sees a sharp reverse of its 19-month highs just one week previously. We can attribute these fears to the possibility of a “no deal” Brexit being back on the table- despite Parliament passing the Prime Minister’s Brexit withdrawal agreement on Friday.

Risk of No Deal Back on the Table

It’s likely traders took action after an advance on the pound both before and immediately after the election, once the exit poll was published showing a strong Conservative majority. The pound has most likely weakened because Johnson has legislated that the transition period for leaving the EU will not be extended beyond December 2020.

On Friday, Parliament voted comfortably to back Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, a stark contrast to Theresa May’s failed attempts earlier this year. This wasn’t a surprise, and didn’t impact the markets.

Moreover, on Friday we also learnt that the new Governor of the Bank of England will be Andrew Bailey. Replacing Mark Carney, Bailey has been Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, and is said to be highly respected in the field.

Quiet Week for Currencies

It’s likely the next week will be very quiet with the Christmas holidays. However, due later today is the US Durable Goods Order report, which publishes orders for manufactured goods. Also, last week President Trump became the third US president to be impeached, and we may see some headlines from the trade negotiations between the US and China.

Over here in the UK, the focus will largely be on the Brexit process. The Brexit legislation is set to go back to the House of Commons for another vote, but shouldn’t have any issues passing. It seems nothing can stop the UK leaving the EU by the 31st January. The next year will now be dominated by trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. The markets rejoiced at Johnson’s huge election victory a couple of weeks ago, but this relief has now turned to concern over the very limited time for trade negotiations (which usually take 20 years- not one).

And what of the Labour Party, you might ask? Jeremy Corbyn is still leader- so nothing changes there!

If you would like to learn for an upcoming currency transfer, I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk, Daniel Johnson, if you would like my assistance.

Danny Johnson

Sell Euros latest: Pound falls to multi-year lows vs Euro

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In this article about when to Sell Euros, we’ll see how the Pound has continued to lose value against the Euro this week. GBPEUR is now trading 9 cents lower on mid-market exchange rates, compared to the start of the British summer, in May. To put this into monetary value, a £200,000 trade into Euros generates €18,000 less when comparing mid-market exchange rates.

Reports this week from the Bank of England are suggesting that UK businesses have sold off the Pound heavily, to buy foreign currency. This is because businesses are concerned about the Pound falling further at the end of October due to a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

To make it worse for UK businesses, Dominic Cummings, the Prime Minister’s most senior aid, has stated that MPs cannot block a ‘no deal’ Brexit by a vote of no confidence. This will be argued in the weeks to come and will put further pressure on the Prime Minister.

Is the Euro going to go up?

Looking ahead, if the UK approaches October without a deal, I expect the Pound will continue to lose value. This is supported by the Bank of England as, last week, Governor Mark Carney warned Boris Johnson that a ‘no deal’ would cause the Pound to fall further against the major currencies. However, if Boris manages to renegotiate the Irish backstop, which in my view is unlikely, the Pound could start its recovery against the Euro.

Brexit developments will continue to drive GBPEUR exchange rates. If you are converting the currency pair in the upcoming months, for business requirements or a property purchase, I would recommend sending an email with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales. This is very important, because the length of time you have will change your options. I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company, drl@currencies.co.uk. Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to compare exchange rates, email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands!

Dayle Littlejohn

Buy Euros update: Boris lifts Pound to fresh July highs

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In today’s update about when to buy Euros, we’ll look at how Boris Johnson has been appointed the new Prime minister of the UK. Since this announcement, the Pound to Euro exchange rate has hit fresh July highs, with peaks on the interbank rate of 1.1228 today at the time of writing this report.

Boris threatens to leave the EU with no deal

Boris has taken a hard-line stance with regards to Brexit, which has seen his popularity rise. Boris has stated that he would be happy for the UK to leave the European Union without a deal, come October 31st.

Most of the UK Parliament and the EU want to avoid a disorderly Brexit. For example, Portuguese Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva said today that: “We will listen carefully to what the new British government has to say, but our objective is to avoid a disorderly exit”.

UBS analysts estimate that the market is now pricing in a near 50% chance of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. This would explain the recent drop in Sterling against the Euro of nearly -5% in the last three months.

Conservative Party and Brexit Party to band together

There have been rumours that the Brexit Party would form an electoral pact with the Conservative Party, if a General Election were called. If this is the case, it would dramatically increase the chances of the Conservative Party winning with a healthy majority. This is because the Brexit Party would target Labour heartlands, where the public are incensed with Labour’s stance on Brexit.

Will Boris Johnson tone down his rhetoric surrounding a ‘no deal’ Brexit, as the new Prime Minister has to wrestle with the realities? If Boris continues along his hard-line Brexit stance, we could see the Pound drop further against the Euro. This is because this is seen as negative to the future of the UK economy, if no-deal happens. If Boris tones down is stance and seeks a new deal with the EU to get through Parliament, we could see the Pound rise, as a no-deal Brexit will become less likely.

If you are planning to exchange currencies in the near future, get in contact with an expert who will keep you up-to-date with political developments here in the UK and EU, as well as market movements. You can contact me, Oliver Godwin, directly here.

Oliver Godwin

Euro forecast set to weaken, on Italian debt crisis

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Italian debt lowers Euro Pound forecast

In this Euro forecast, we’ll look at how financial firm TS Lombard believe that it will be a matter of “when” rather than “if” another full-blown sovereign debt panic will occur.

It could be that the Italian government is positioning itself to demonstrate to its voters that it has not sought to leave the EU, but rather the EU is leaving Italy. Italy could be getting ready to inform the EU that it has had enough. Then the Italian government could inform the public that the EU is to blame for Italy’s economic woes.

This has the potential to hit both the stock market and the currency market in a serious fashion. There could be a far bigger market reaction than when the Greek crisis hit the markets a decade ago. Italy’s economy is ten times the size of that of Greece and is the eighth largest economy in the world.

Although this is a serious concern for those holding Euros, I am not of the opinion that the debt issue will addressed in the short term. Brussels and Italy will discuss potential debt solutions before an agreement is reached, or indeed Italy may remain stubborn and the problem hits the Euro.

Is the Euro going to go up? Effect of Brexit

Brexit continues to weigh down Sterling. With no Prime Minister (PM) and Brexit in limbo, there seems little hope for the Pound short-term.

Boris Johnson is clear favourite to become PM, and he has stated that he will bring a ‘no deal’ scenario back to the table, to negotiate a better deal with Brussels. This does not bode well for Sterling, because the higher the probability of a ‘no deal’, the weaker you would expect Sterling to become.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you.

If you have a trade to perform, I will also happily provide a free quote. I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with an FCA-registered company and one that has been trading for 18 years, Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance, I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading, Daniel Johnson.

Daniel Johnson

EUR forecast: Pressure continues to increase on the Euro

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The EUR has come under further pressure of late, with GBP finding plenty of support ahead of the UK’s impending Brexit deadline. As a EUR forecast for you, this could be of interest.

Currently, the UK is still set to leave the EU by March 29th. However, with this date fast approaching, an extension to Article 50 looks like the only remaining viable option.

It looks near-impossible for the UK to agree the final terms of its exit within the current timeline. Once again, this highlights how little progress the government has made over the two-and-a-half years since Article 50 was initially triggered.

Despite this lack of clarity over the UK’s final Brexit position, the Pound has enjoyed a prosperous couple of weeks. This has been of detriment to the EUR, which has seen its value slide accordingly.

The single currency is in a precarious position currently, as its value continues to fall, despite the obvious problems still aligned to Brexit.

Investors’ confidence in the Pound seems to be slowly returning, as the prospect of a no-Brexit deal outcome diminishes. Despite this more positive outlook, following last week’s vote by MPs to not push forward with a no-deal, it must be remembered that it is still the UK’s default position, should a deal ultimately fail to be agreed.

Despite this level of uncertainty remaining, the markets have decided to take a more positive view and the Pound has reacted accordingly.

Pound Euro exchange rate forecast

The EUR has suffered not only due to an upturn in market sentiment surrounding Brexit, but also due to concerns surrounding the Eurozone economy.

With economic concerns hampering growth in the major linchpin economies of Germany, France & Italy, there are fears of this downturn filtering out to the remaining 16 states. This seems to be having a detrimental effect on the EUR value.

Add to this the upcoming impact of the UK leaving the EU, plus the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to end their monetary support programme at the end of 2018, and it is easier to understand why the EUR is coming under increased pressure.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and, as a company, we have over 19 years’ experience in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates in any given market.

Our award-winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone, and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

EUR Forecast – Is the Euro Likely to Lose Value Over the Coming Months? (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has seen its value fall against the Pound in recent days, with GBP/EUR rates trading back above 1.14. These are some of the lowest levels the Euro has traded at in recent months and this fall comes despite the on-going uncertainty surrounding the UK ‘s impending Brexit.

Last week only compounded the issue, with UK Prime Minister Theresa may losing a key Commons vote on her Brexit deal and subsequently just survived a vote of no confidence in her leadership. She now faces the prospect of trying to negotiate further with Brussels, in order for her to go back to her fellow MP’s with an improved deal, which she can then hopefully push over the line before the UK’s deadline to leave the EU on March 29th.

Whilst this uncertainty is likely to handicap any major advances for Sterling for the time being, I think it is poignant that the Euro failed to make any further inroads against the Pound, despite the issues mentioned. They could hardly be seen as positive for the UK and ultimately they were unlikely to boost invvetsors longer-term confidence in GBP.

It is more likely that investors had significantly factored din the negative outcomes and thus, the Euro had no further scope for improvement when the outcomes were so heavily predicted. It may be that the EUR has gone as far as it can under the current market conditions and in my opinion only the prospect of a no-deal scenario for the UK when it does exit the single bloc, could act as the catalyst to drive GBP/EUR rates back towards and possibly under 1.10.

Looking ahead and the Eurozone economy is to see its economic output slow this year, with political and economic problems in key Eurozone economies such as Germany and France weighing heavily on the region’s growth.

The Eurozone will also have to cope with the loss of an integral member, when the UK does finally depart and I  believe these factors will impact the EUR value over the coming months.

 

 

Matt Vassallo

GBP/EUR – Brexit “No Deal” now a real Possibility (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – GBP/EUR has now hit the 1.10s now sitting at the lowest levels this year. The lack of clarity surrounding Brexit and the real prospect of a “no deal” scenario is hitting the pound hard.

Trade secretary, Liam Fox has stated he believes there is now a 60% chance of a Brexit “no deal”.

I have noticed some worrying market reactions over the last week. One example would be the recent very poor factory order figures from Germany. Keep in mind Germany is the engine room for the bloc so data releases from the region do have an impact on the market. Despite the poor figures we did not see Euro weakness, in fact Sterling continued to lose ground, Brexit uncertainty out weighing the bad news form the Eurozone.

If we also look at  GBP/AUD we can see worrying signs. Despite The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping interest rates on hold this week and a very dovish tone from Governor , Philip Lowe following the decision Sterling continued to fall against the Aussie breaching the 1.75 resistance point. GBP/AUD now sits at 1.73.

I am afraid there is very little reason to be optimistic about Sterling value at present. If you have a trade to perform short term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson