Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

Services PMI data causes volatility on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

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Services PMI causes Sterling Spike

Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data was released in Europe and the UK today with varying results. Services PMI is an indicator of the economic situation in the  services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. Anything above 50 indicates growth.

There was a slight increase from Germany up by 0.1%, but French figures showed a significant drop of 0.6%. This was enough to see GBP/EUR strike a 2 week high of 1.0939. This was despite a small contraction the UK services sector of 0.3%.

If you are buying Euros I would be wary of thinking this will be a sustained rally. Sterling is being anchored by two major factors.

  1. Political uncertainty. Historically the currency in question weakens during a period of political uncertainty. With growing pressure on Theresa May to vacate her position as PM it does little to help the pound. Until there is  a stable government the pound will have a great deal of trouble making any significant gains.
  2. Brexit is the other major catalyst for Sterling weakness as  there is no clarity on the UK’s stance and there is conflict between UK negotiators and Brussels over payment of the proposed exit bill. Bad news is better than no news on the currency market which is why GBP/EUR still sits below 1.10.

There is also the possibility the ECB could announce tapering QE. If this is the case GBP/EUR could reach parity by the end of the year.

During such tough times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

Sterling Euro climbs back away from 8 year low – Brexit talks remain in focus (Daniel Wright)

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Sterling has made a slight fight back against the Euro over the past 24 hours, despite many media channels still more than happy to continue to talk about parity for the pairing.

There are numerous reasons that the Pound has dropped against the Euro in the past few weeks, one of the factors is quite simply down to the fact that the Euro is currently the best of a bad bunch when looking at the options of the big three, Euro, Sterling and Pound.

With tensions rising with North Korea and Trump still not exactly filling the markets with confidence the Dollar is out of favour at present and with Brexit talks and the economy still not looking particularly fantastic at present the Pound is hardly at the top of investors shopping lists.

Due to this the Euro is fairly in demand, Euro/Dollar broker the 1.20 marker for the first time in a long time earlier in the week and with this pairing being the most traded in the world we have seen a huge flow of money leaving the Dollar and going into the Euro, this in turn has made the Euro more in demand, stronger and more expensive to buy.

One of the key issues for the Euro now is if we see a progression with  the tapering of the European Central Bank’s QE (Quantitative Easing) program. Should the expectation of tapering be quashed then the Euro may well come back out of favour a little and start to weaken off again.

There is very little data of note left this week for Europe but do keep a keen eye on Euro exchange rates tomorrow at 13:30pm as we have the release of Non-Farm Payroll data in the States which can be quite a market mover.

Should you have the need to exchange Euros either now or in the future then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly as I can help you both in terms of achieving a great rate of exchange along with helping on the timing of your transfer.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk explaining what you are looking to carry out and I will contact you with quote. For just two minutes of your time it could save you a lot of money! We deal with clients moving money internationally buying or selling any major currency.

Daniel Wright
Daniel Wright is a Director at Foreign Currency Direct and is the creator, owner and main author of this website. Having spent many years as a currency broker Daniel has extensive experience and a wealth of knowledge on what can impact Euro exchange rates.

Important decision for the ECB this Thursday (Dayle Littlejohn)

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The European Central Bank are set to release their latest interest rate decision Thursday at 12:45. With interest rates are rock bottom (0%) the consensus is for no change. However when President Mario Draghi addresses the public shortly after this is when I expect to see a volatile period for euro exchange rates.

Many economists are predicting that Mr Draghi will extend the Quantitative Easing program which finishes in March by the end of year. If Draghi makes any hints to an extension we could see an afternoon session of euro weakness. It’s key to note recently Mr Draghi has remained bullish within his press conferences therefore this press conference could go either way.

The pound had a positive day against the euro yesterday off the back of positive Consumer Price Index (inflation) numbers and limited coverage of Brexit news. Looking ahead for GBPEUR exchange rates, the likelihood of the pound strengthing against the euro is minimal. For buying euro exchange rates to improve the ECB will have to devalue the euro by extending the Q.E program.

Personally I don’t think an extension will come until December and if the pound continues to devalue up until the end of the year I don’t see the euro weakness making back the losses and then some, therefore if I were buying euros my strategy would be sooner rather than later.

Many clients do not realise that they can lock into exchange rates now and pay later if they do not have all of their sterling available. This is known as a forward contract!

For more information in regards to the currency market, forward contract or how I can achieve you the best rates possible feel free to email me with your requirements, timescales, the best number to reach you on and I will give you a call to discuss your options drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn

Nervous end to the month for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have remained relatively stable this morning following the Bank holiday weekend in the UK.

Confidence figures published in the Eurozone have come in close to the expectation and this has helped to keep Sterling vs Euro above 1.17 on the Interbank level.

What could affect the Pound vs the single currency later today is the release of German inflation data due out at 1pm UK time later today.

As the Eurozone’s largest economy this will provide evidence as to whether or not the addition of Quantitative Easing has had a positive or negative effect.

Germany will also announce both Retail Sales and Unemployment data tomorrow morning and this could set the tone for the rest of the week for buying or selling Euros.

With all the uncertainty still around following the vote to leave the European Union and the lack of a timescale as to when the UK may trigger Article 50 this is clearly weighing heavily on Sterling exchange rates which is one of the main reasons why Sterling is still struggling to make gains vs the Euro.

Therefore, if you’re concerned about what may happen to currency over the next few weeks and need to make a payment during this time it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix your exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

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Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Unpredictable times for Sterling Euro Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates were sent into a flux towards the end of this week as the ECB launched a ‘bazooka’ into the financial markets.

The European Central Bank announced a change in the interest rate from 0.05% to 0% as well as adding another €20bn each month in the form of Quantitative Easing.

This saw well placed Euro buyers be able to take advantage of the swing during yesterday afternoon and buy at 1.30 but the opportunity was extremely short lived.

ECB president Mario Draghi stated that he was comfortable with the intervention and insisted that further rate cuts will not be necessary. This cause a huge strength for the single currency bringing rates down to as low as 1.27 at one point.

Next week the Bank of England meet on Thursday to discuss interest rates and the likelihood is that we’ll see another 9-0 vote which could cause further falls for Sterling Euro exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

ECB Decisions Create Choppy Day Of Trading For GBPEUR

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Yesterday those trading GBPEUR experienced a volatile day on the exchange as the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its latest round of liquidity plans.

Overall we saw GBPEUR fluctuate over 2.5% in total, making the timing of trades imperative when looking to maximise results, as yesterday’s swings totalled a difference of 6460 Euro’s when converting £200,000 from the highest to the lowest point of the day.

The headlines from yesterday’s meeting consist of the ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate to -0.4%, meaning that European banks will be charged to hold money in their accounts. Also, the refinancing rate (the rate at which the ECB lends money to banks) dropped from 0.05% to 0%. Arguably the biggest surprise of the day was the plans increase in Quantitative Easing (QE) whereby the ECB announced that it will be buying an additional 20 billion Euros worth of bonds each month, and that now includes corporate bonds also.

Initially we saw the Euro fall quite steeply but after Mario Draghi’s commented that further cuts will not be needed, we saw a surge in the value of the Euro making timing the conversion of Sterling to Euro trades difficult yesterday.

Today I’m expecting a quieter day for markets as economic news releases are thin within the Euro-zone and the UK, which could make for a less stressful time to convert currency as GBP trades within the mid-zone of its current 1.26 – 1.30 trading range.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency, consider contacting me (Joe Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Joseph W

GBPEUR levels remain unsettled waiting for the ECD decision today

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News today from the European Central Bank (ECB) is the biggest for the month and even the year to date. The whole market is waiting with weighted breath for the decision coming out of the ECB on how to tackle deflation. This being to create growth and spending across Europe which has been struggling recently and increasingly so since the fall in commodities earlier this year.

They have, what I can see, four options

  1. Change the overnight base rate they put onto the banks – this being currently at -0.3% that they charge on banks that put funds with them over night. If this happens expect maybe some euro weakens
  2. They change the amount of QE that is being printed each month, maybe adding an additional €10-€20 billion. The larger the amount the more euro weakness which could be created
  3. They do a bit of both – this could have the largest impact on markets
  4. They do nothing – in this case rates will fall and the euro will strengthen.

The balance is that the market has been speculating on this event for weeks and the market has moved already to price in the most likely output.

My view is that we will see rates either fall from the month high of nearly 1.30 down to 1.27 if he does nothing like the bank did in December. Rates stay within the same range if they do the minimum amount which has already been priced into the market. They surprise us and do a little more than expected, rates breach 1.30 for a short period of time then settle at these current levels. Or lastly really surprise the market and we see rates over 1.30 and establish a new higher range.

Personally I think people will generally be disappointed – I see rates either saying around this level or falling.

It seems rates will either go up a little bit or fall a lot and is a risk all should be aware of.

If you are trading on this event – register for SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS via email hse@currencies.co.uk or call 0044 1494 787 478 and ask for myself STEVE EAKINS

Stephen Eakins
http://www.eurorateforecast.com

What will happen to Sterling vs Euro if the ECB adds more QE? (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have started the week trading in a very tight range as all eyes are focused on what may happen on Thursday when the European Central Bank meets to discuss monetary policy.

With inflation running at just 0.1% at the moment there is a big chance that the ECB may look at further Quantitative Easing and if this does happen then I expect Sterling to rally against the single currency in the run up to the announcement and then immediately afterwards.

The ECB has stated on a number of occasions that they will do ‘whatever it takes’ but some analysts think the stimulus will be limited.

Personally I think the central bank will go a bit further than many expect and this could cause Sterling to go up against the Euro and perhaps go past 1.30 on the Interbank level.

The Pound vs the Euro has not yet priced in any move as yet and I think Thursday could be a huge event for the currency pair.

Clearly the uncertainty of a Brexit is currently keeping the Pound low against the Euro but any change by the ECB could cause Euro weakness.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively call me on 01494-787478 and ask for Tom Holian when calling

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Euro exchange rates await Thursday’s decision and press conference (Daniel Wright)

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So far we have the calm before the storm this week for Euro exchange rates as markets await Thursday’s decision with baited breath.

On Thursday we have the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference. The key here will be if we see any cut in interest rates and also if there are any additions to the QE program from the European Central Bank. In my opinion you could virtually toss a coin for either to happen and should either come into play then we may see weakness for the Euro.

We have had members of the ECB coming out and saying that they do not feel an addition to QE is required recently however there are a number of members that will be having a say in this so I would not be surprised to see something done on Thursday to attempt to give the economies within the Eurozone a shot in the arm.

The market has been fairly flat so far and I feel it may remain quiet until Thursday when things will no doubt get a lot more volatile.

If you need to buy or sell Euros in the next week or so then this gives you plenty of time to get in touch with us and set up a trading facility in advance of these huge decisions. Even if you are registered with another broker I would be highly surprised if we could not save you money with our award winning exchange rates so do feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your plans and I will be more than happy to help you personally.

Daniel Wright
Daniel Wright is a Director at Foreign Currency Direct and is the creator, owner and main author of this website. Having spent many years as a currency broker Daniel has extensive experience and a wealth of knowledge on what can impact Euro exchange rates.

GBPEUR Continues It’s Strong Run, But For How Long?

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The Pound continued its bullish run against the Euro today, continuing its recovery from the beginning of last week where Sterling gained on the Euro from Monday through to Friday.

This rebound has predominantly been down to bargain hunters picking up the Pound at these low levels, after the steep sell-off which began at the back end of last year and then picked up steam at the turn of the year as ‘Brexit’ headlines began to dominate.

Whether the recent positive pattern for Sterling bulls continues or not could be decided by the decisions taken by the ECB this Thursday, as speculation builds as to whether there are plans for further financial stimulus or not.

Personally I believe that should Mario Draghi announce plans for further financial stimulus to aid the flailing Eurozone, then we could see a spike in GBPEUR as risk appetite returns to the market. Generally speaking the Pound performs well in times of increased market risk along with the main UK equity index, the FTSE 100, and I can foresee a bounce on both fronts should the ECB announce further Quantitative Easing this Thursday.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving either GBP, EUR or both, it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Joseph W

The Impact of Eurozone QE on Sterling Euro Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have seen a recovery over the last few days compared to  the week before following Mayor of London Boris Johnson’s decision to announcement he would be joining the Leave Campaign.

Boris carries a lot of influence on voters and this saw the odds of a Brexit going up.

Clearly the referendum is causing investors to stay away from Sterling at the moment but to me I don’t think it will happen.

As yet there is not enough information being made available by either camp and the likelihood is that we’ll remain part of the EU when the referendum takes place on 23rd June.

The big news for next week will come from the Eurozone when we see the announcement of both GDP data and their next monetary policy meeting.

Eurozone GDP is released on Tuesday morning which is likely to have an impact on GBPEUR rates but arguably the biggest event will come when the ECB announces whether or not they will look at further QE on Thursday.

The rumours are that EUR10bn could be added per month in an attempt to combat falling inflation.

Eurozone inflation has been measured at 0.1% and this is a real concern for the continent.

Therefore, my expectation is for further QE rather than another rate cut by the ECB on Thursday and this could create some good opportunities to buy Euros towards the end of next week.

If you are selling Euros it may be worth organising prior to Thursday’s decision and if buying Euros then maybe delay until the end of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Will the ECB look at further QE Next Week and the impact on GBPEUR Exchange Rates? (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have recovered this week by as much as 3% after a dreadful start the week before with Boris-Gate.

Interest rates in the Eurozone are currently at just 0.05% and there is a slight chance that the ECB may look to cut interest rates again as low inflation published recently has raised concerns on the continent.

However, I think this is rather unlikely and I would not be surprised to see the ECB look at further Quantitative Easing at next Thursday’s policy meeting.

If they cut interest rates or add to QE then we could see carry trading taking place.

In effect this means borrowing in a low yielding currency to invest in a higher yielding one. Typically this would have a weakening effect on the currency involved and in this case the Euro could struggle.

Low inflation is a big worry for the Eurozone and with recent figures confirming inflation at just 0.1% then I would not be surprised to see some form of policy change by the ECB as president Mario Draghi has previously suggested that he would do ‘whatever it takes.’

Therefore, I think we could see GBPEUR exchange rates improve towards the end of next week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.