Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

EUR Forecast – Where Next for EUR Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has looked fragile of late and this could be the running theme of 2019, with Eurozone growth forecasts uninspiring and unlikely to help support any major upturns for the single currency.

It wasn’t long ago that the EUR was outperforming the majority of its major currency counterparts but with cracks appearing in some of the Eurozone powerhouse economies, this trend was always likely to reverse. The economic problems in Italy have been well documented for months, whilst the escalating political stand-off in France, which see’s President Macron continue to alienate himself from vast sways of voters, is also starting to weigh heavily on investor risk appetite.

However, it is in Germany, which remains the powerhouse and engine room of the Eurozone, where the economic slowdown could start to have a very real ripple effect across the entire Eurozone region.

Add to this the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to tie up their Quantitative Easing (QE) programme and there is a growing concern that the EUR could be in for a tough run over the coming months.

Looking at GBP/EUR rates and despite the EUR finding plenty of support around the 1.16 level, the Pound still managed to make inroads despite a complete lack of confidence in the UK economy and ultimately the Pound. The on-going uncertainty surrounding Brexit has acte as a buffer for the EUR and any significant downturn in recent months but with a no-deal scenario now looking less likely, could the Pound be in line for further improvements?

Whilst I wouldn’t be banking on a major upturn for Sterling, I also feel that unless the UK ultimately leaves the EU with no-deal in place, it is unlikely that the EUR will make inroads back towards 1.10 and could ultimately see its value slip further.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

Events impacting GBPEUR exchange rates this week

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This Thursday is the key day which has the potential to have a major impact on GBPEUR exchange rates as the European Central Bank will release their latest interest rate decision and MPs within the House of Commons will debate if the UK should remain in the customs union.

In regards to the interest rate decision, interest rates will be left on hold which doesn’t come as a surprise. However it will be President Mario Draghi’s speech that could dictate the strength of the euro. It’s been heavily publicised that the Euro had a strong 2017 and the ECB were hinting that the quantitative easing program could come to an end at the of the year. However as inflation is falling in the eurozone and global tensions rise due to trade wars, some economists are suggesting that the QE program could overrun. Draghi’s tone will be key and should be watched closely if transferring euros in the future.

Across the Atlantic, UK Prime Minister Theresa May has a dilemma on her hands. The House of Lords last week voted in favour of remaining part of the customs union and now this is set to be debated in the commons. She is stuck between a rock and a hard place as MPs are split whether we should leave or remain and the customs union also will impact the Irish border deal. This story in the upcoming weeks has the potential to have major repercussions on sterling exchange rates as this story will have a major influence on the final deal the UK will receive. Personally with the pound gaining momentum since the start of the year against the euro, in my opinion this is worth taking advantage of now before the Brexit trade negotiations heat up.

If you are converting pounds into euros or euros into pounds, and would like further information on how I can save you money on the actual transfer feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Dayle Littlejohn

ECB interest rate decision and press conference key for the week ahead

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As we head towards the end of the calendar month we have a reasonably quiet week for European economic data.

In my opinion all eyes will be firmly focused on what comes from the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference due out on Thursday at 12:45pm and 13:30pm respectively.

No changes to interest rates are expected but what will be key is head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi’s comments in the press conference that follows the rate decision, along with any changes to the ECB QE program.

It had been widely thought that a tapering of the ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) program would be happening soon, and should they act on or put a nod towards this happening then we may see significant Euro strength.

Recent data from Europe suggests to me that this will not happen just yet, growth figures have dropped off a little around the Eurozone and economic data as a whole has not totally impressed.

In general investors and speculators tend to hang off of Mario Draghi’s every word and any indication to future economic policy change can lead to sharp movements for Euro exchange rates almost immediately.

Next week we also have both growth and inflation figures for the Eurozone which will also be important for where Euro exchange rates head next.

Personally I still feel that the Euro is slightly overvalued but it has shown over the pass ten years that it is an extremely resilient character, so you can never be totally convinced that the Euro is going to drop off.

If you have the need to carry out a Euro exchange in the coming weeks then it is well worth getting in contact with us here at Euro Rate Forecast. The writers of this site all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in Europe and we can help you not only maximise your exchange rate but also with the timing of your transfer too.

Should you wish to speak with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will get in touch to discuss the options available to you.

 

Daniel Wright
Daniel Wright is a Director at Foreign Currency Direct and is the creator, owner and main author of this website. Having spent many years as a currency broker Daniel has extensive experience and a wealth of knowledge on what can impact Euro exchange rates.

Will Euro exchange rates lose ground against Sterling?

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Having looked at recent market data and political issues i would not be surprised to see the Euro lose a little ground against Sterling in the coming days and weeks.

There are various reasons why I believe this, yesterday comments by Chancellor Philip Hammond suggested that the outlook for the U.K economy potentially wasn’t as bad as had been originally predicted some time ago, and most notably that wage growth is expected to come back in line with inflation by Spring 2019, this has been a real sticking point for the Bank of England for quite some time now.

Wage growth being below inflation causes real problems for an economy, if the cost of goods and services is going up faster than the pace of consumers earnings then they will essentially have less money in their pocket and this then leads to less money being out there and economic growth creeping down, it also hold back interest rate hikes too.

On top of this we still have the issues over in Italy to iron out which could cause more problems for the Eurozone than it has so far, there are still various groups failing to come close to any agreement on a coalition which I feel will not change in the near term and this could cause political uncertainty which may damage the Euro if not resolved.

Later this week we have European inflation figures out on Friday morning which will also be important for Euro exchange rates as it may impact when the European Central Bank aim to taper their QE program along with any movement on interest rates, which it does appear will not be changed until 2019.

All this in mind, along with the potential for Brexit news or trade talks that could lift Sterling I would not be surprised to see GBP/EUR rates come back up to the 1.15 level (0.8695) in the coming weeks.

if you have a Euro exchange to make into Sterling or any other major currency in the coming days, weeks or months then you are welcome to contact me personally as I can help you both with achieving the best exchange rate and with timing your transfer.

Yo are more than welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site for a free exchange rate quote and no obligation discussion about your transfer. You can email me djw@currencies.co.uk and I will get in touch with you personally.

Daniel Wright
Daniel Wright is a Director at Foreign Currency Direct and is the creator, owner and main author of this website. Having spent many years as a currency broker Daniel has extensive experience and a wealth of knowledge on what can impact Euro exchange rates.

EUR Forecast – Positive Data Helps Boost the Euros Value (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has found plenty of support during the early part of the trading week, making gains against both GBP and the USD.

GBP/EUR rates have hit 1.1245 this morning, over a cent lower than yesterday’s high of 1.1346. The catalyst for yesterday’s improvement was a drop in UK Services data, coupled with the same releases for the Eurozone, which came out at a reading of 58. This was above the markets expected result and helped to boost the Euros value, with the pair moving back below 1.13.

Despite some weaker than expected Eurozone Retail Sales figures EUR/USD has also improved, moving back above 1.24.

It has been well documented that the Eurozone economy has outperformed expectation at almost every turn, providing the platform for the EUR improvement over recent months.

The European Central Bank (ECB) and its President Mario Draghi have remained steadfast in their commitment to the current monetary policy (QE) programme, which they feel has helped support the Eurozone economy through a time of economic uncertainty.

Draghi believes that the results are clear and that the Eurozone economy is now starting to progress because of this.

It was interesting to note that none of the ECB members felt the need to talk down the EUR, which they have been known to do in the past for fear of it becoming over-valued. This in turn will have a negative impact on exports of the Eurozone’s goods & services, due to the fact that they will become too expensive for trade partners to buy.

Whilst it is clear that the EUR is enjoying a good run, the Pound and USD have gained a foothold over recent weeks. With so much uncertainty regarding Brexit negotiations and how the EU itself will fare once the UK leaves the single bloc. I expect increased strain and volatility on the currency markets.

As such it may be worth removing any risk and taking advantage of the current levels, which remain extremely attractive, particularly when you consider the relative history on the pairs.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfers to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

 

Matt Vassallo

Services PMI data causes volatility on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

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Services PMI causes Sterling Spike

Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data was released in Europe and the UK today with varying results. Services PMI is an indicator of the economic situation in the  services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. Anything above 50 indicates growth.

There was a slight increase from Germany up by 0.1%, but French figures showed a significant drop of 0.6%. This was enough to see GBP/EUR strike a 2 week high of 1.0939. This was despite a small contraction the UK services sector of 0.3%.

If you are buying Euros I would be wary of thinking this will be a sustained rally. Sterling is being anchored by two major factors.

  1. Political uncertainty. Historically the currency in question weakens during a period of political uncertainty. With growing pressure on Theresa May to vacate her position as PM it does little to help the pound. Until there is  a stable government the pound will have a great deal of trouble making any significant gains.
  2. Brexit is the other major catalyst for Sterling weakness as  there is no clarity on the UK’s stance and there is conflict between UK negotiators and Brussels over payment of the proposed exit bill. Bad news is better than no news on the currency market which is why GBP/EUR still sits below 1.10.

There is also the possibility the ECB could announce tapering QE. If this is the case GBP/EUR could reach parity by the end of the year.

During such tough times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Daniel Johnson

Sterling Euro climbs back away from 8 year low – Brexit talks remain in focus (Daniel Wright)

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Sterling has made a slight fight back against the Euro over the past 24 hours, despite many media channels still more than happy to continue to talk about parity for the pairing.

There are numerous reasons that the Pound has dropped against the Euro in the past few weeks, one of the factors is quite simply down to the fact that the Euro is currently the best of a bad bunch when looking at the options of the big three, Euro, Sterling and Pound.

With tensions rising with North Korea and Trump still not exactly filling the markets with confidence the Dollar is out of favour at present and with Brexit talks and the economy still not looking particularly fantastic at present the Pound is hardly at the top of investors shopping lists.

Due to this the Euro is fairly in demand, Euro/Dollar broker the 1.20 marker for the first time in a long time earlier in the week and with this pairing being the most traded in the world we have seen a huge flow of money leaving the Dollar and going into the Euro, this in turn has made the Euro more in demand, stronger and more expensive to buy.

One of the key issues for the Euro now is if we see a progression with  the tapering of the European Central Bank’s QE (Quantitative Easing) program. Should the expectation of tapering be quashed then the Euro may well come back out of favour a little and start to weaken off again.

There is very little data of note left this week for Europe but do keep a keen eye on Euro exchange rates tomorrow at 13:30pm as we have the release of Non-Farm Payroll data in the States which can be quite a market mover.

Should you have the need to exchange Euros either now or in the future then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly as I can help you both in terms of achieving a great rate of exchange along with helping on the timing of your transfer.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk explaining what you are looking to carry out and I will contact you with quote. For just two minutes of your time it could save you a lot of money! We deal with clients moving money internationally buying or selling any major currency.

Daniel Wright
Daniel Wright is a Director at Foreign Currency Direct and is the creator, owner and main author of this website. Having spent many years as a currency broker Daniel has extensive experience and a wealth of knowledge on what can impact Euro exchange rates.

Important decision for the ECB this Thursday (Dayle Littlejohn)

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The European Central Bank are set to release their latest interest rate decision Thursday at 12:45. With interest rates are rock bottom (0%) the consensus is for no change. However when President Mario Draghi addresses the public shortly after this is when I expect to see a volatile period for euro exchange rates.

Many economists are predicting that Mr Draghi will extend the Quantitative Easing program which finishes in March by the end of year. If Draghi makes any hints to an extension we could see an afternoon session of euro weakness. It’s key to note recently Mr Draghi has remained bullish within his press conferences therefore this press conference could go either way.

The pound had a positive day against the euro yesterday off the back of positive Consumer Price Index (inflation) numbers and limited coverage of Brexit news. Looking ahead for GBPEUR exchange rates, the likelihood of the pound strengthing against the euro is minimal. For buying euro exchange rates to improve the ECB will have to devalue the euro by extending the Q.E program.

Personally I don’t think an extension will come until December and if the pound continues to devalue up until the end of the year I don’t see the euro weakness making back the losses and then some, therefore if I were buying euros my strategy would be sooner rather than later.

Many clients do not realise that they can lock into exchange rates now and pay later if they do not have all of their sterling available. This is known as a forward contract!

For more information in regards to the currency market, forward contract or how I can achieve you the best rates possible feel free to email me with your requirements, timescales, the best number to reach you on and I will give you a call to discuss your options drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Dayle Littlejohn

Nervous end to the month for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates have remained relatively stable this morning following the Bank holiday weekend in the UK.

Confidence figures published in the Eurozone have come in close to the expectation and this has helped to keep Sterling vs Euro above 1.17 on the Interbank level.

What could affect the Pound vs the single currency later today is the release of German inflation data due out at 1pm UK time later today.

As the Eurozone’s largest economy this will provide evidence as to whether or not the addition of Quantitative Easing has had a positive or negative effect.

Germany will also announce both Retail Sales and Unemployment data tomorrow morning and this could set the tone for the rest of the week for buying or selling Euros.

With all the uncertainty still around following the vote to leave the European Union and the lack of a timescale as to when the UK may trigger Article 50 this is clearly weighing heavily on Sterling exchange rates which is one of the main reasons why Sterling is still struggling to make gains vs the Euro.

Therefore, if you’re concerned about what may happen to currency over the next few weeks and need to make a payment during this time it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix your exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

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Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Unpredictable times for Sterling Euro Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

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Sterling Euro exchange rates were sent into a flux towards the end of this week as the ECB launched a ‘bazooka’ into the financial markets.

The European Central Bank announced a change in the interest rate from 0.05% to 0% as well as adding another €20bn each month in the form of Quantitative Easing.

This saw well placed Euro buyers be able to take advantage of the swing during yesterday afternoon and buy at 1.30 but the opportunity was extremely short lived.

ECB president Mario Draghi stated that he was comfortable with the intervention and insisted that further rate cuts will not be necessary. This cause a huge strength for the single currency bringing rates down to as low as 1.27 at one point.

Next week the Bank of England meet on Thursday to discuss interest rates and the likelihood is that we’ll see another 9-0 vote which could cause further falls for Sterling Euro exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

ECB Decisions Create Choppy Day Of Trading For GBPEUR

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Yesterday those trading GBPEUR experienced a volatile day on the exchange as the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its latest round of liquidity plans.

Overall we saw GBPEUR fluctuate over 2.5% in total, making the timing of trades imperative when looking to maximise results, as yesterday’s swings totalled a difference of 6460 Euro’s when converting £200,000 from the highest to the lowest point of the day.

The headlines from yesterday’s meeting consist of the ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate to -0.4%, meaning that European banks will be charged to hold money in their accounts. Also, the refinancing rate (the rate at which the ECB lends money to banks) dropped from 0.05% to 0%. Arguably the biggest surprise of the day was the plans increase in Quantitative Easing (QE) whereby the ECB announced that it will be buying an additional 20 billion Euros worth of bonds each month, and that now includes corporate bonds also.

Initially we saw the Euro fall quite steeply but after Mario Draghi’s commented that further cuts will not be needed, we saw a surge in the value of the Euro making timing the conversion of Sterling to Euro trades difficult yesterday.

Today I’m expecting a quieter day for markets as economic news releases are thin within the Euro-zone and the UK, which could make for a less stressful time to convert currency as GBP trades within the mid-zone of its current 1.26 – 1.30 trading range.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency, consider contacting me (Joe Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Joseph W

GBPEUR levels remain unsettled waiting for the ECD decision today

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News today from the European Central Bank (ECB) is the biggest for the month and even the year to date. The whole market is waiting with weighted breath for the decision coming out of the ECB on how to tackle deflation. This being to create growth and spending across Europe which has been struggling recently and increasingly so since the fall in commodities earlier this year.

They have, what I can see, four options

  1. Change the overnight base rate they put onto the banks – this being currently at -0.3% that they charge on banks that put funds with them over night. If this happens expect maybe some euro weakens
  2. They change the amount of QE that is being printed each month, maybe adding an additional €10-€20 billion. The larger the amount the more euro weakness which could be created
  3. They do a bit of both – this could have the largest impact on markets
  4. They do nothing – in this case rates will fall and the euro will strengthen.

The balance is that the market has been speculating on this event for weeks and the market has moved already to price in the most likely output.

My view is that we will see rates either fall from the month high of nearly 1.30 down to 1.27 if he does nothing like the bank did in December. Rates stay within the same range if they do the minimum amount which has already been priced into the market. They surprise us and do a little more than expected, rates breach 1.30 for a short period of time then settle at these current levels. Or lastly really surprise the market and we see rates over 1.30 and establish a new higher range.

Personally I think people will generally be disappointed – I see rates either saying around this level or falling.

It seems rates will either go up a little bit or fall a lot and is a risk all should be aware of.

If you are trading on this event – register for SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS via email hse@currencies.co.uk or call 0044 1494 787 478 and ask for myself STEVE EAKINS

Stephen Eakins
http://www.eurorateforecast.com