Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

What is happening to Euro exchange rates? (Tom Holian)

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The rate to buy Euros with Pounds is currently close to its lowest level since last autumn as the UK economy appears to be feeling the negative effects caused by the uncertainty of the Brexit negotiations.

As yet we are nowhere near a resolution and I think if and when it happens this will be a long way off which could keep the pressure on Sterling exchange rates for quite some time.

Today could be a very big day for Pound Euro rates as there is a huge amount of economic data due out.

We begin with Eurozone Retail Sales figures at 11am which will provide us with an insight as to how the economy is performing as well as confidence in Europe.

However, arguably much more important is the news due to come out from the UK later on today. At midday the Bank of England announces its latest interest rate decision.

Last time the split was 5-3 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold but since the previous decision Kristin Forbes who was one of the 3 in favour of a rate hike has been replaced by Silvan Tenreyo who is unlikely to want to rock the boat.

This will be closely followed by the Quarterly Inflation Report as well as a speech given by Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Depending on the tone this could provide a lot of volatility during today’s trading session so if you’d like a free live quote to buy or sell Euros then ring me directly by calling 01494-787478.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Pound to Euro rates and will the fall continue into next week? (Tom Holian)

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The Pound to the Euro has continued to drop during the latter part of the week with GBPEUR rates now falling below 1.16 on the Interbank level as the Bank of England suggested that interest rates will remain on hold for a lot longer than previously expected.

The Quarterly Inflation Report confirmed that inflation is likely to fall to 2.7% from 2.8% and this has seen a big sell off for Sterling causing the Pound to weaken.

UK growth forecasts were all raised yesterday which typically would result in Sterling strength but combine the lack of any sign of an interest rate hike as well as the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit then this is what is causing Sterling’s downfall vs the single currency.

There is little economic data to speak of next week in both the UK and the Eurozone so the GBPEUR exchange rate will likely be affected by what is happening politically and as we appear no closer to triggering Article 50 then I think we’ll continue to see the Pound struggle to make any gains vs the Euro.

Longer term I think when both Holland and France go to the polls we’ll see problems ahead for the Euro but until then the Pound will continue to suffer against the Euro.

Indeed, with the controversy surrounding Fillon recently this has done nothing to negatively affect the Euro which highlights the problems facing the Sterling caused by the ongoing Brexit issues.

If you’re in the process of buying a property in France or Spain and are worried what will happen to exchange rates to buy Euros in the weeks ahead then you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date allowing you to budget early on and remove any potential negative movements against you.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and am therefore able to offer you bank beating exchange rates when buying or selling Euros so to find out more or for a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

Bank of England suggests UK Interest Rates going nowhere until Spring 2017 (Tom Holian)

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The Bank of England has voted 8-1 in favour to keep interest rates on hold for November but more importantly has also suggested that interest rates will not change until Spring 2017.

With the forecasts a few months ago looking at a rate rise for Spring 2016 the addition of another 12 months has seen a big sell off for the Pound and this has seen exchange rates for Sterling vs Euro already drop by almost 2 cents from the high to the low during today’s trading session.

Interest rates have remained the same for over six years now for the UK and with the Bank of England press conference due later today I think the key topic will focus on low inflation.

Owing to inflation still currently at just -0.1% this has meant an interest rate hike would be hugely detrimental to the British economy and if you’ve been reading my articles recently I’ve been predicting this fall for Sterling for quite some today based on today’s BoE meeting combined with the UK Quarterly Inflation Report.

For a live quote please call me directly on 01494-787-478 and ask for Tom Holian

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.

How Will The Fed Affect Euro Rates?

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Following on from Michael’s comments yesterday, this afternoons speech by Janet Yellen the new head of the Fed will potentially be the big tipping point for currency rates this week.  She is expected to reinforce the view that the Fed will continue with their cautious taper of QE which will likely see the USD strenghthen against the Euro, but should also be beneficial for sterling.

Followed by the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation report tomorrow, with more Forward Guidance expected from Mark Carney, and a speech by Mario Draghi (the President of the ECB), it is pretty clear that central bank policy is likely to dominate market movement this week as speculators move to second guess the respective bank heads.  In my view Carney is likely to maintain his cautiously optimistic view on the outlook for the UK which will attempt to again damp down any prospect of a UK interest rate rise.  However Draghi already seems to have waved his magic wand at last week’s ECB press conference talking about the consideration of other tools to stimulate things in Europe.

Whilst he may have convinced markets in the short term that the situation in Europe is under control, I think they will need to grasp the nettle at some point and actually tackle the fundamental problems of unemployment and low growth.  As such I suspect both GBP and USD will make ground over the single currency in the medium term, and Euro sellers may want to take advantage of the recent improvement.

If you need to make a currency transfer and would like information about our services then please feel free to email me at cmg@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

Colm G

Bank of England cuts growth forecast which strengthens GBP exchange rates against USD and EUR

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The UK’s Quarterly Inflation Report out this morning confirmed that the Bank of England have cut the growth forecast almost to 0% from the previous prediction in May of 0.8% as fears continue of a double dip recession. The report also stated that there is likely to be no growth for 2012. All the data pointed to the potential of an interest rate cut but Mervyn King during the conference claimed that cutting interest rates is unnecessary and is unlikely to have much impact of growing the economy. Sterling Euro exchange rates improved by over half a cent within half an hour this morning following the comments and confirmed what I wrote yesterday is that I firmly believe that the Bank of England will use Quantitative Easing in order to try and control the UK’s economy.

The future is rather unpredictable for the UK but with the Governor of the Bank of England’s decision to clearly not use the inflationary combating tactic of cutting interest rates we may see Sterling regain its previous three days negative movement. Indeed, GBPEUR yesterday hit the lowest for a month following Mario Draghi’s comments made at the back end of last week. King also said a rate cut ‘would damage some financial institutions and would be more counter-productive than beneficial.’ Forecasts are that the next round of QE could come in November but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it sooner. The reason for November is that the current asset purchasing programme runs out at that time.

UK GDP currently stands at -0.7% yet the Pound is still remaining strong which seems to highlight that it’s the uncertainty that surrounds the Euro zone which is causing the movement for GBP exchange rates. Spain has already received €100bn for its banking sector and there is still worry that if Spain’s situation continues to deteriorate it may be forced to receive a bailout which could be more than is currently available in the bailout fund.

If you need to move currency and unsure how the process works or would like to receive a free quotation of buying or selling Euros please do not hesitate to contact me Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk If you are currently using a currency broker and would to like to compare exchange rates please also contact me via email teh@currencies.co.uk

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.