Tag Archives: sending money abroad
When should I Buy or Sell Euros?
The pound to euro rate has had another of its recent spikes which is presenting what I think is a good time to buy euros. It has been much better but there are some very good reasons why the rate is where it is now and the current outlook is rates will get worse.
The reasons for the 3 cent improvements for buying euros yesterday was the uncertainty presented by no clear outcome in the Italian election. This immediate fear has spooked markets but we have already seen the rate claw back some ground against the pound. I do not think this spike will last long as markets digest the news and some kind of resolution is achieved in Italy.
Stories over the weekend were full of predictions of GBPEUR falling to 1.10 and even parity in the coming weeks and months. The pound is under and I expect to remain under huge pressure for this year. Tomorrow we have UK GDP data which could well provide some extra information on just how bad the UK is doing.
Why has the Euro been so strong? The euro has been strong because it has been felt that the leaders have been doing enough to keep the euro toegther. This is presenting an excellent opportunity to sell euros. If you are holding euros looking to sell to buy GBP, yesterday’s three cent moves show how quickly things can move. If you are considering a particular currency exchange and would like to be kept up to speed please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I can make sure you are aware of all your options and enter the market at a good time.
Exchange rates move every few seconds for a wide range of reasons. By working together to understand your requirement we are able to ensure you do not lose out unnecessarily and can react quickly to market movements. And when you do enter the market we will make sure you do so at an excellent commercial exchange rate, we can always beat the banks and other sources. For more information please feel free to contact me Jonny contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk.
What can we expect for the Euro in 2013?
News of agreement on the fiscal cliff in the US has given the markets confidence but it will be interesting to see how long this lasts. My personal view is that this will help the Euro to strengthen against the pound although the effects so far have been limited. Why is this and what can we expect for 2013?
Over the Christmas period we did see some moves in the favour of those selling Euros as the markets tested some of the better levels in the last 9 months. Unfortunately there was not enough news to warrant a marked move sub 1.22 and we have seen a bounce back above 1.23 today on GBPEUR.
Sentiments on exchange rates change every few months and it is following certain events we can see the start or the end of a trend. The improvements in Euro sentiment over the last 7 months could well be about to end unless we see some particularly negative sterling news. Rather than any currency performing particularly well it has often been a case of which currency is not performing the worst!
Unfortunately it is impossible to say exactly which currency will perform the worst, but by working with clients to highlight trends and movements in and out of their favour we can assist them in achieving the best price.
If you are considering any transfers please feel free to get in touch for further information on how to achieve the very best exchange rate. You can speak directly with me on 01494 787 478 or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
Euro Rate Forecast December EURUSD, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD (Jonny)
Tomorrow sees the last day of November and there is plenty to move Euro rates moving into December. Month ends and week ends can often lead to volatility and unexpected moves as traders reconcile positions and take profits. Unexpected swings early or late in the day are the result and can provide extra opportunities. With less than 2 cents movement between the high and the low in November we have had a fairly quiet month, the trend has undoubtedly been negative for Euro buyers.
I highlighted the spike for Euro sellers we saw this morning earlier this week here and low and behold as Mervyn King spoke of problems remaining in the UK banking sector, the GBPEUR rate fell. At the low of the day we were only 0.5% away from the best Euro selling rates since April 2012. If investors confidence remains over the recent Greek deal we could easily see further gains against a weaker pound although I do feel investors fears over the economic outlook for Europe are bound to outweigh these sentiments in the future. Arguably these fears resurfaced towards the end of today’s trading as the rate climbed back up.
Tomorrow we have Eurozone Unemployment data which alongside a German parliamentary vote on Greek bailout funds could spell more pressure for the Euro. As explained above month end moves could also cause some interesting swings. If you have a transfer you are considering you can speak to me using the contact details attached for a free, no obligation discussion of what to be aware of for the future.
Next week is the start of a new month and will provide a whole new set of data and news to move Euro rates. The last few months have been fairly quiet on rates but we could finally see the Euro break out of the recent ranges against the pound and Dollar. We have PMI surveys which often affect the short term movements on a currency. These are due for the UK, Europe, US and China. These surveys are flash surveys of economic activity in the previous month and often lay a marker for future data like GDP and set the tone on more fundamental releases like interest rate decisions.
Interest Rate decisions are very important for currency! Next week is the UK, Eurozone, Canadian and Australian decisions. In the same way a higher interest rate attracts savers to a bank account, a higher (or lower) interest rate for a central bank will affect investment into a currency. Movements up or down or even hints of movement one way or another in the future will cause rate fluctuations.
Other highlights include the Autumn Statement by the Chancellor George Osborne in the UK, Non Farm Payroll and US Unemployment data in the US plus news from the US over the fiscal cliff.
I personally would not be surpised to see some of the recent good news for the Euro continue to contain the recent gains. The run up to Christmas and a New Year can often be a quiet time on the market as politicians, business leaders and even clients seek to delay any big decisions until the New Year when they get a new perspective. Although saying that last year saw nearly four cents movement in the run up to the New Year…
Unfortunately I cannot tell you exactly what will happen in December, no one can. Despite not having a crystal ball, I do have many years experience of handling large currency purchases for one off private clients and corporate clients. In my experience working with clients to find out their requirements and timescales, then looking at their exposure and upcoming events does help secure better deals. The gamble in the currency markets is simply doing nothing.
Securing the best rate is achieved through an understanding of what drives the markets. If you are considering a currency transfer please feel free to get in touch for information that could well save you money. Our specialist proactive service is designed to ensure you can make an informed decision on when to trade, as well as trading at the very best rate.
For any questions, queries or enquiries please contact me Jonny directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk 01494 787 478
Euro on the road to recovery
Today the euro rallied and gained by almost 0.5% against the pound and the dollar as Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for Manufacturing showed a positive improvement for Europe. The markets expecting a contraction in growth of 0.5% but the figures showed a surprising increase of 0.2% when compared to last month. Also interestingly it showed that unemployment in Europe continued in its decreasing trend which lead to a majority of the single currencies gains today.
Tomorrow the UK releases their Bank of England minutes and the US release their new house sales figures. Both of which could change the markets significantly. If you are transferring money abroad be sure to continue to read this blog and feel free to contact us if needed. I hope you find this useful?
EURO news – could GBPEUR reach 1.10?
Consumer confidence was released earlier today from the EU and shows a worrying result. It was expected to show a slight fall through this month although in reality, it was released significantly worse. This is probably down to Portugal and Ireland who are both rumoured to be looking to negotiate some sort of bail out/support. This resulted in the first EUR/GBP and EUR/USD loss for some time with the Euro dropping nearly half a percent against both.
It again creates more speculation about the potential interest rate rise coming as soon as next Thursday. The ECB speaker Makuch spoke yesterday and pointed out that the April rate hike is very likely although of course not a certainty. In my opinion although Consumer Confidence figures dipped a rate hike in April remains likely.
Goldman Sachs announced earlier this year that the GBP/EUR pair could reach 1.10 and that now doesn’t look beyond the realms of possibility.
If you are looking at either buying or selling Euros timing will be key as interest rates hang in the balance.
Speculation continues for EURO interest rate hike
I personally believe once of the biggest drivers for exchange rate movement this year has been the race between the UK, US and the Euro zone as to who will raise interest rates first. At the beginning of the year the UK looked the strongest with economic figures showing a marked improvement however recently inflation has climbed along with unemployment changing the growth forecast in the UK and therefore weakening the likelihood of a rate increase.
The Euro zone has recently become the clear favourite and many are expecting a rise as soon as next week which in turn has strengthened the euro to the strongest rate against sterling for nearly 6 months. This has been down to continue growth in the largest countries and rising inflation as prices worldwide continue to climb. Next week could see rates improve further for the euro so anyone with a GBPEUR or USDEUR may wish to avoid the risk of further losses.
On the other side of the coin you have Portugal as mentioned in Jonny’s blog below that could raise risks across the Euro zone and could push back a rise for yet another year. Either way I cannot stress the importance of using a broker over the bank on all money transfers. They can normally provide savings of up to 4% and can help you time the exchange you need to maximise the exchange rate.
Retail figures surprise GBPEUR
This morning the UK released the first of many reports due over the next 36 hours, the UK Retail Figures. These came out surprisingly better than people had expected and is already changing forecasts for sterling this week. The figures showed an improvement to 5.5%, the highest rate for 20 years.
With the UK Budget and Bank of England minutes due tomorrow this week has the potential to be very busy with huge swings in exchange rates and therefore effecting the cost of money transfers. The UK Budget starts just after the release of the most recent interest rate decision by the Bank of England earlier this year. Many are expecting rates to rise this year but the split of the vote between the 9 members will be key in forecasting when this may take. I personally think it is likely we will see a small rise in the next 2 months with larger increases towards the end of the year. This is on the bases of seeing a 6-3 split to hold rates steady, if they were to come out with a 5-4 split you would expect sterling to gain and Euros to be worth less.
The budget is another matter and really needs to show a clear path to growth in the UK, ideally with more investment in job creation and industries across the country. Many are expecting a fuel cut of some such with a promise of making fuel cheaper by 1 p I don’t think it is something to start jumping about. Plus of course with UK borrowing figures so high we also have to calculate the costs of the new “war” in North Africa.
Tomorrow could be one of the most volatile days for sterling this year for the pound if both the budget and the bank of England minutes combined do not provide a clear or pretty picture for sterling.
Market holds its breath ahead of cruch interest rate decision
Today we have a busy day for sterling as it releases a number of key reports including Jan GDP forecasts, UK production figures and an important Interest Rate Decision. Many have been speculating about who will raise rates first around the world and many are pointing towards the UK. However with Egypt news pushing oil prices up which will continue to push inflation up the Bank of England has a number of difficult decisions to make. Pushing them up now would hurt growth and unemployment while leaving them steady for another month will not increase investment.
I personally think that interest rates will rise this year but much later more towards Q3 or Q4. Therefore the speculation about a rise later today could be a little early and may result in some selling off of sterling after the release at 12 noon. Timing on a transfer is key and being able to see the rates throughout the day can make the difference of thousands in your transfer. So if you have a currency requirement feel free to contact us today to experience our award winning service and rate of exchange.
New bank charge of £800 million announced
In early trading today the chancellor George Osbourne announced plans to start taxing UK banks this year. He made his comments on the BBC radio 4 show and confirmed that this new tax could raise as much as £800 million through 2011. he went on to say that these plans have actually been brought forward as figures are showing that the banks are holding a higher percentage of cash on their books.
This news which spread like wild fire across news stations has resulted in both stock and sterling loses as this tax will come out of bank profits. Plus as the banking sector equates to a large proposition of the overall GDP of the UK economy so sterling has been heavily sold. The pound comes to the end of the day down against 14 of the 16 most traded currencies with large losses close to a percent against the euro. Making a difference of over €2,500 on a £200,000 transfer.
Again this shows that the markets can really shock and on a house purchase, business payment or investment today would have made a big difference on the amount achieved. If you are looking at sending money abroad and want to maximise your rate of exchange feel free to contact us today as we are the eyes and ears for thousands of clients saving thousands.
