Tag Archives: the best deal on euros against the pound

Pound remains vulnerable after Brexit vote, has it bottomed out? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound came under increasing pressure last week as the Pound to Euro exchange rate hit a 5 week low.

At current levels the GBP/EUR exchange rate is trading less than a cent from it’s 52 week low, which is also a 3 year low of 1.1456. With GBP/EUR trading just above 1.15 this morning I would be surprised to see the pair hit a new low by the end of the week as the Pound is looking vulnerable at the moment.

There have actually been some good economic news releases for the UK economy since the vote, with the weaker Pound boosting manufacturing and especially the car industry. Despite these positives for the Pound, sentiment towards Sterling is generally poor and I expect this last of positivity surrounding the Pound to continue to weaken the currency in future.

Last week a major European lender set it’s 6 month price target for GBP/EUR to 1.08. For those with an upcoming currency requirement which involves selling the Pound to purchase Euros, it’s worth mentioning that at the current levels clients trade levels would be considerably above this mark, so if the bank’s analysts are correct there is still time to make your move before the anticipated further falls take place.

There is a quiet week of economic news releases expected out of the UK, but within the Eurozone there is plenty to watch. Inflation figures are set for release this Friday and inflation has been a hot topic within the region as it struggled to get close to it’s 2% target. Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank President has a speech later today so expect any references to inflation to be heavily scrutinised.

If you are planning a currency exchange involving both GBP and EUR, it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

when will the Euro weaken against the pound?

Many buyers of Euros are upset at the current level and are keenly waiting for rates to recover back to 1.20 or even higher. This prospect is not completely out of the question but I do feel it is more likely buying Euros will become more expensive not cheaper on a balance of probabilities over the course of the next few months. What we are waiting for if buying Euros is some Euro weakness but for now it is sterling weakness which is driving the GBPEUR exchange rate and taking investors attention.

There are two reasons that could see the Euro weaken at the moment. The first being a resurgence of the Euro debt crisis with Greece and co. Were we to suddenly see Greece hit the headlines again the Euro would certainly weaken but the outlook and likelihood of this happening is fairly limited. Last year the Euro was very weak which caused much volatility across many exchange rates, unfortunately for Euro buyers this is unlikely to quickly reverse. The Eurozone came up with a number of method to manage the risk of the Greek debt crisis which are doing very well so far. The second is that economic conditions in the Eurozone could deteriorate to the point where they might need more QE which would weaken the Euro. This is the more likely scenario to weaken the Euro but the expectation is this is more likely to not happen than to happen.

If you have any questions or currency transfers to consider the likelihood is for more GBP weakness, the challenges for the pound and the UK seem to me to outweigh those facing the Eurozone and the Euro. If you wish to learn or discuss more please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

Will GBPEUR rise above 1.20 again?

The pound against the Euro has fallen by over 15 cents since June. Rates of 1.30 and even 1.20 now seem like distant memory, what does the future hold for Euro and its performance against the pound? Well in my opinion a spike higher towards 1.20 will happen again in the coming weeks and months, I feel confident political pressures in the EU and lacklustre economic performance in the Eurozone will see the Euro come under serious pressure as investors question once again the fundamental values of the single currency bloc.

I feel the pressures on the pound will outweigh the Euro however since the questions facing the UK are bigger, the impact on the UK from the outcome of the questions (when will Article 50 be invoked, what will the UK’s future relationship with the EU look like) are greater. However markets move on sentiment and as we have seen in the last couple of weeks the sentiment for the UK became very positive once again, we saw the pound rising against the Euro. This was based on speculation the UK would not be performing too badly in the new post Brexit scenario. However sentiment since then has changed and it has seen the pound fall as speculation over what Brexit will entail becomes a problem once again.

If you need to buy or sell the Euro with sterling (or any other currency) the Brexit negotiations are going to have a huge impact on the currency markets. Tomorrow we have the US Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision which will more than likely move markets, the unexpected nature of such an event is an example of the kind of scenario which might see the GBPEUR rate rise back towards 1.20.

If you have a transfer to consider making some plans in advance is key to understanding and getting the best rates. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR exchange rates are trading at their worst levels since August, will the Pound continue to decline? (Joseph Wright)

After increasing off the back of a number of upbeat surveys regarding economic output in the UK, the Pound’s fortunes have slowly reversed as we’re seeing the Pound fall to levels not seen since August.

Despite the positive sentiment out of the UK business industries the actual hard data has been coming out below economists expectations, with the most recent inflation figure disappointing earlier this week, and the Pound has been under pressure since then.

A little later this morning at 9.30am there will be some key data released in the form of UK Retail Sales. This figure will show us whether there has been an improvement or decline in the total sales within UK based retail stores, and a slight decline is expected.

Those selling Sterling and buying another currency may wish to consider their options, as the gains from those UK business surveys are dwindling away and if the trend continues we may be back to the trading levels seen in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote.

Euro sellers are in the fortunate position of being able to convert their Euros into Pounds at a rate that’s better than the average over the past ten years.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Will GBPEUR rise back above 1.20?

Just lately the rate for buying Euros with pounds has improved presenting Euro buyers with the question will I soon be able to buy back at 1.20? Unfortunately that is not looking too likely since the main reason for the improvements are some fairly old news. That is there has been lots of economic news from before the vote which is highlighting the economy was actually working very well in the run up to the vote. The economy was growing and we had also seen lots of good news on Unemployment and Retail Spending. For me I would have to question whether or not this will continue and with lots of the business surveys pointing towards declines I would be worried that the rates could easily slip back.

There is still plenty of uncertainty as to just what the UK economy will look like in the future as we still have no news on what the actual outcome of the Brexit vote will be. Markets move on uncertainty as much as anything else so until we get some fresh news on just what the Brexit will lead to I would personally be worried about the future. If you have a transfer to consider in the future making some plans in advance is probably the safest bet to avoid the risk of missing out if things take a sudden turn.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or please fill in the contact form. We are specialist currency brokers and can assist with a wide range of options and the very best rates for any bank to bank transfers you will need to consider.

GBPEUR Strategy for the rest of 2016

Sterling to Euro exchange rates have had a roller coaster of the last 12 months. In that time we have gone from the best time to buy Euros in 8 years to now the worst time in 3 years. With 28 cents or 24% difference between the high and the low the move has been substantial and is an important piece of information to help you understand the volatility of the currency markets. It was only last year that some analysts at some of the major banks were  predicting the GBPEUR rate might hit 1.50! Well clearly this is not likely at all in the current market and with a suggestion the Bank of England might not raise rates for 70 months sterling weakness is something we should probably getting used to the pound erring on the weaker side. It seems sensible therefore to prepare for further weakness in the coming weeks and months, the Bank of England have threatened further cuts and this could take GBPEUR lower towards 1.13-1.14.

It seems the economic data for the UK will get worse and sterling will weaken which will provide downward pressure on GBPEUR. But what about the Euro, how will this perform? Well the Italian banking issues seems to be contained for now and Greece is in a process of restructuring debt. There are actually signs the economic plans in the Eurozone are working and this has given rise to fresh buoyancy on the Euro. Whilst there is always the outside prospect of the Euro weakening as a result of problems with Eurozone debt issues, this is not a good enough reason to not buy Euros at the moment. I really feel if you have Euros to buy before the end of the year getting it done sooner rather than later is the safest best to avoid further disappointment. If you do have the luxury of being able to wait a while then we might see rates over 1.20 again but this could be a very disappointing wait and in my opinion it is unlikely to be reached in 2016.

Please take note if you like the information we provide you can subscribe to the posts absolutely free of charge, just fill in your email address at the top of the page. Otherwise for more direct information please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to me Jonny.

Will the GBP/EUR exchange rate continue it’s decline and test the 1.16’s this week? (Joseph Wright)

After tailing off towards the end of last week the Pound to Euro Conversion rate has begun the week once again in bearish fashion, as the markets continue to digest the larger than expected financial stimulus package announced last week by the Bank of England.

I’m expecting the effects of this financial stimulus package to continue to weigh on GBP exchange rates over the course of this year, and I think that each time we receive updated economic releases outlining the performance of the UK economy post-brexit, these releases will be heavily scrutinised due to the expectations of weaker economic output from the UK since the public collectively voted to leave.

Investor sentiment is likely to drive the exchange rate between GBP and EUR today as there is very little economic news releases scheduled for today.

As today’s trading session progresses we’ve seen the pound decline as the markets digest the outcome of last Thursday’s Bank of England decisions. There was the expected Interest rate cut down to 0.25% but I think what really caught markets off guard was the greater than expected financial stimulus package from the BoE, with an additional £60bn of Government Bonds now in circulation.

The measures implemented last week will result in additional Pounds being now circulated, and this will likely weaken the Pound as we immediately experienced in the aftermath of those decisions.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joe) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBP/EUR trends upward after Construction Figures impress, but will the Pound lose these gains after Thursday’s Interest Rate decision (Joseph Wright)

The Pound trended upward today vs most other major currencies as the latest PMI Construction figures beat expectations, with the markets receiving this news well as they were for July, an important month considering they provide us with an overview of the UK’s construction figures for the first whole month since the ‘Brexit’.

The key date this week is Thursday, because at 12 pm a raft of news sensitive economic announcements will be made with the most important being the Interest Rate decision. There is an expectation within the marketplace that the base rate will be cut down to 0.25% from 0.5% as Mark Carney (the governor of the Bank of England) has alluded to this move previously.

Despite today’s slight gains for the Pound we have seen the Pound fall slightly over the past few trading sessions so I wouldn’t be surprised to see that same pattern re-emerge tomorrow and prior to lunchtime on Thursday. I’m not expecting a big drop for the Pound this Thursday as markets are anticipating the cut, allow if the rate isn’t cut we could see the Pound spike upward which is something Euro sellers should be aware of.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound, or the Euro, it’s worth getting in touch with me (Joe) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Sterling likely to continue its decline vs the Euro throughout 2016 (Joseph Wright)

Those with a foreign currency requirement involving selling the Pound may wish to consider making that conversion sooner as opposed to later, as personally I think the Pound will continue to decline against the Euro throughout the year and into next year as the negative effects of the ‘Brexit’ are made clear in form of economic data releases.

Last Friday was the first time economic news out of the UK has been released providing us with an overview of the economy post-brexit. Both Services and Manufacturing data showed declines from their previous recordings and we’re now aware that economic output in the UK has dropped to its lowest level since 2009.

Despite yesterday morning’s UK 2nd Quarter GDP figures showing growth of 0.6% when 0.5% was expected, markets were left unchanged and this demonstrates to me that presently there is further potential for downside than upside with regards to Sterling exchange rates, as good news is barely affecting exchange rates whereas negative news is driving down Sterling’s value. Investors are reasonably concerned over the uncertainty surrounding the UK’s economic future.

The inter-bank level is just above 1.19 at the moment, not a huge distance from the average of roughly 1.25 over the past decade. Those selling Pounds to buy Euros may wish to remove the risk of further falls by making their exchange shortly rather than waiting which could be an expensive strategy, as prior to the ‘Brexit’ numerous FX analysts in the industry predicted parity for the GBP/EUR pair, so there could be a lot further to go if they’re proved right over time.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving GBP/EUR, you can get in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Will the pound rise further against the Euro? GBPEUR Forecast

Politics has been a big driver on GBPEUR particularly with the Brexit vote and its impact on sterling. However the next few weeks will I believe see economic factors play a much bigger role and some big moves could happen as early as 4th August when the Bank of England meet to discuss their latest interest rate decision. They are talking about an interest rate cut and also the possibility of QE which could really weigh on the pound. I have been predicting that the low in the 1.15’s could easily be revisited whilst depending on the extent of any measures we couldn’t rule out further falls perhaps 1.11-1.12. This is based on the worst case scenario as the last time the Bank of England announced QE (Quantitative Easing) measures and an interest rate cut the pound fell to almost 1 for 1 with the Euro. The outlook is not quite as bad as perhaps previously considered but it does still carry risks for anyone buying the Euro with pounds.

There is also risk for clients buying pounds with Euros that the pound rises or the Euro weakens. We saw at the beginning of July the pound rise almost 2 cents as the Bank of England disappointed markets by keeping interest rates on hold. They made clear in their commentary that they might look again in August or September so this is when the pound could rise or fall. I think if they fail to do anything they are going to disappoint the market and the pound will rally. We also must recount some of the issues we have over the Euro, the currency is far from out of the woods and whilst strong against such a weak pound the Euro is weak against most other currencies following Brexit and owing to nerves over the Italian banking issues and fears over Greece’s debt. I think these troubles could see the rate rise easily up into the lower 1.20’s with 1.25 a likely top end on the GBPEUR pair.

As you can see there is no magic special forecast as to what will happen next. No one can predict the future but by tracking events and highlighting the important considerations we can help plan and manage your exposure to the market. If you have any transfers from £10,000 up for business or private clients purchasing (or selling) property overseas please speak to me Jonny by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a Chief Analyst and Associate Director for one of the UK’s top currency brokerages which has been in business for 17 years so will be very well placed to help you with any requirements you might have.

GBP/EUR could sway from 1.20 today, with a downward move most likely (Joseph Wright)

Today will be the first time UK specific economic news will be released showing the effects of the UK’s ‘Brexit’, so later today there’s a chance that the GBP/EUR pair will be trading within a new range away from the 1.20 mark the pair have traded at for most of the week.

It will be PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data that will be released at 9.30am this morning. PMI stands for Purchasing Managers Index and the figures will provide us with an idea of business conditions within the UK for the month of July in terms of output, new orders, employment levels for the sector, sales and company forecasts.

50 is a key benchmark for the figures as anything above demonstrates growth whereas numbers below indicate a contraction. The figures are expected to show a decline so should they beat expectations there could be a spike upward for the Pound, but I think there is more downside potential considering the negative effects the ‘Brexit’ appears to be having, and I’m expecting some negative figures to be released.

GBP/EUR are still just 5 cents from the 10 year average of 1.25 so those looking to sell their Pounds and purchase Euros may wish to consider making that transfer sooner as opposed to later as over time there is a chance the Pound could fall closer to parity, especially if predictions by the likes of HSBC and Lloyds prior to the EU Referendum come to fruition.

If you are planning a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Where next for GBP/EUR? (Daniel Charles Johnson)

With Theresa May’s new cabinet in place I think we will see a gradual rally for Sterling. There are however two events which could hold back the Pound. First up, the Bank of England’s (BOE) next interest rate decision on 4th August. There was the high possibility of an interest cut at the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting this month but rates were held. Usually if an economic data release goes a against the general consensus you will see a big swing in currency values. GBP/EUR however only experience slight movement, very briefly moving to 1.21 before settling at around 1.20. Only a cent move from the pre-interest interbank level of 1.19. I think this can be put down to there being a firm chance of cut in August. It is common knowledge therefore I would not expect Sterling to fall considerably when a cut does occur.

The second event which could cause Sterling weakness is the implementation of article 50. Article 50 essentially engages the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, this will almost certainly weaken the Pound. I do not expect this to occur until at the earliest Q1 2017.

If you have a currency requirement it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is key during such a volatile  times, If you have a veteran broker on board he can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to help with your trade I will be happy to help. Let me know the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.