Tag Archives: the best deal on euros against the pound

Buying Euro rates near four-month highs (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR exchange rates have seen their second consecutive day of serious gains on the currency markets, as buying Euro rates saw 1% gains daily between Tuesday and Wednesday.

The feature of these tempting gains which had been absent until now was that there were sticking. Spikes and dips had until now characterized GBP/EUR exchange rates given the agitated nature of investors and banks in the run up to the Referendum vote.

But the first two weeks of May produced the most stable period for buying Euro rates since the beginning of the year, barely changing between 1.26-7, has given greater confidence to the market-place. Regular trading patterns which had been disrupted initially by Referendum uncertainty have re-emerged among the traders at high street banks (the ones who move the volumes large enough to effect currency exchange rates), giving the Pound some more life.

Effectively, the recent stability has allowed investors to delay jumping ship too early before the vote. When GBP/EUR hit 1.21 in April this shows that many had been prone to doing so.

Yet polls for the vote four weeks away are still uncertain. The remain camp has been boosted (another factor in increased stability), but the wide margin in the results doesn’t inspire confidence in the numbers.

Ipsos-Novi had the Remain camp up by 8 points in their telephone poll whilst the Leave camp were up by 4 in their online poll. Polling companies aren’t regaining the confidence they lost from the May election last year.

With normal trading activities having re-emerged, Euro buyers should be wary of growth figures coming out later this morning for the UK economy. This has been a sticking point monthly this year, and in April it was even confirmed that for the first time in almost three years, the Eurozone outpaced the UK’s growth.

With so much left to chance over the next four weeks, and with the growth figures out today set to dominate the economic rhetoric on Pound value until Wednesday when the new month begins and fresh data is released, Euro buyers may be wise to seize the 10 cent movements in your favour since April.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and the current buying levels as they are today can actually be fixed in place to avoid any pitfalls surround the upcoming Referendum affecting planned currency exchanges later in the year. A brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

Euro sellers can also do the same, and I can outline the options open to you to minimise your risk on the currency markets ahead of the EU vote. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR rates touch back into 1.28 briefly (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates have seen heavy volatility to begin the week, but all concentrated within the 1.28-1.29 trading bracket for GBP/EUR. After staying above 1.30 for a period of 34 hours last week, Sterling’s characteristic ‘fits’ of strength we’ve seen so far this year seems to be being repeated, with another net loss being recorded so far today.

With no data of note being released today markets seem to be looking ahead to tomorrow’s growth figures for the EU economy and are already beginning to price the positive outcome forecasted, with the Euro up against all major currency pairings, included the US Dollar, Australian Dollar, and the most commonly requested pairing on this website – the Pound.

Last month it was revealed that for the first time in nearly three years growth in the Eurozone outpaced that of the UK. The first quarter of 2016 showed only 0.4% growth in the UK, and 0.6% growth across the Channel. This is a reflection of the difficult year the UK economy has been having (the steel crisis and looming Referendum to name but a few points of concern), whilst the Eurozone is finally beginning the feel the positive effects of incredibly cheap credit (with base rates now at 0%) and a 400% increase in foreign investment compared to last year.

On Tuesday Euro growth figures will be released, and on Thursday our own growth figures in the UK will be scrutinized. As such if both figures come in as expected it is likely that GBP/EUR will be falling throughout the week.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to explore a strategy for your transfer which suits you, and is geared towards maximising your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere. Simply email me with your requirement then I can respond to discuss the options open to you through a currency exchange specialist, alongside a free, no obligation quote to give you a full idea on how our service can assist you.

If your transfer in not until later into the year, these current levels can also be fixed in place to avoid the potential pitfalls associated with waiting across the volatile Referendum period.

Euro sellers can also get in contact, and I will explain how best to manage the movements ahead of the June vote. Whilst movements are expected to be in your favour, it is best to have protection in cause any sudden and unexpected events affect your transfer. 

Buying Euro rates above 1.30 for 34 hours last week (Joshua Privett)

Rates for buying Euros were above 1.30 last week for the first time since February, after a productive Wednesday and Thursday for Sterling on the currency markets.

The Pound was up in all major pairings following three consecutive performance figures for the UK economy, which were received as a breath of fresh air for markets, who were subjected almost two weeks of complete stagnation on GBP/EUR exchange rates.

On average this year the difference between the high and the low daily on GBP/EUR has been 1.5 cents, yet the previous 10 days of trading yielded almost no change of the 1.26-1.27 trading band.

Whilst I can admit this was a relief at the office after what has seemed an incredibly fast-paced year, I can empathise with the multitude of people with a vested interest in Euro buying rates who were faced with a difficult decision during this period – where are the rates going to go from here?

As stated this was partially answered by the mid-week boost to the Pound and the near 4 cent gains on buying Euro rates between Wednesday and close of play Thursday. Positive wage, employment, and retail sales figures for the UK economy were the driving force behind the Pound’s resurgence.

However, the overwhelming consensus, seen most notably in reports by HSBC and Goldman Sachs, is that this is not the beginning of a new trend, and this view likely contributed to the Pound’s heavy falls on Friday’s trading.

The surprisingly positive data can be attributed to introduction of summer weather (although patchy) earlier in April. This allowed industries traditionally dormant until late May or June to wake early and begin contributing to UK performance, explaining why a sudden rise in retail sales coincided with a rise in employment.

Therefore this is not evidence of a long-term turnaround. This is set to be confirmed this week with growth data for both the Eurozone and the UK to be released to the marketplace on Tuesday and Thursday.

In April it was stated by the Office of National Statistics that the Eurozone had actually reported higher growth than the UK of 0.6% during the first quarter of 2016 than the 0.4% recorded solely on our side of the Channel.

Growth is everything. Growth shows whether an investment is worthwhile, and without this vote of confidence the value of the Pound will likely slide further away from these near 4 month highs as the final week of May continues.

The conservative view is that these buying rates for Euros are a gift on the marketplace, when no-one expected such opportunities this close to a Referendum still filled with uncertainty. It now seems that the gamble in this situation for anyone holding Sterling is waiting to buy your Euros.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk

If you outline your requirement and the time frame within which you plan to conduct your transfer, then we can begin a discussion to determine the most suitable option open to you through a currency exchange specialist which suits you with a view to maximizing your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and a brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

Euro sellers can also get in contact to have a similar conversation on your options, though in this instance my thoughts will sway towards waiting for the news next week to re-coup the losses incurred to you over the last week of trading. With the near two-cent losses on GBP/EUR during Friday’s trading, the market momentum is certainly in your favour.

Greek worries could see GBPEUR back above 1.30 very easily

Ah yes the Greek debt saga, that good friend of anyone buying Euros. Sometimes it is helpful to look at where we have been in order to understand where we are going and this is true with the Greek crisis. My first post on this blog was May 13th 2010 and guess what one of the topics was? That’s right Greece. Please read the post here if you wish to step back in time. At the time the Greek debt crisis was unfolding and here we are six years later and the problem is continuing with worries coming back to the market. Since then billions of Euros have been pledged to support Greece through various clever ways to massage the finances and make it appear Greece will be able to pay back the debt. The growing reality is that they will not be able to pay it back and at some point confidence will evaporate. That date could be another six years away though as the Troika (IMF, EU and ECB) continues to kick the Greek issue around like a worn out school playground football.

The reality now is some sort of debt relief must be agreed for the IMF to continue their involvement. Germany will have to accept further measures to help Greece (despite their unpopularity) or face the alternative worst prospect that of a messy Greek default or the Eurozone entering deflation. I think the next important steps in this event will not arise in July when the next payments are due although this will be a period of Euro weakness for clients buying Euros to capitalise on.

The next big test will come once further blank cheques have been signed and the German, French or Dutch people elect a government who will no longer authorise the payments. At that time the economic problems become political and that dear reader is when Greece may be forced to leave the Eurozone. German elections are next year and despite Merkel’s recent unpopularity I expect her to remain Chancellor. It will be elections in 2021 that are the real test I feel as the gentle declines in goodwill which are clearly evaporating across Europe begin to manifest into a deeper more serious problem.

So happy 6th birthday to me on the blogs, I wonder dear reader where we shall be in another 6 years? Finally the 6th of May was the anniversary of the opening of the Channel Tunnel. Who would have thought that 22 years later from this significant date in 1994 British relations with the EU would have changed so much?

For any further information and to keep up to date with market insight please contact me jmw@currencies.co.uk

How will Brexit impact the Euro?

Much is being made of the pound’s collapse should the UK leave the EU. But what would be the impact on the single currency once the UK decided to abandon ship? 

The euro could suffer greatly from a Brexit as investors become fearful over the future of the EU. It is no secret that more nationalist parties are finding favour across, the National Front in France, UKIP in the UK and anti immigration parties in Germany and the Netherlands too. Eastern Europe has become very introverted following the large scale migration seen in the last 18 months.  Should the UK leave the EU then this will act as a sign to other EU economies (with most using the Euro) that there is another way besides the Brussels way.

The UK is a key leader in the EU and the withdrawal of the UK from this arrangement would undoubtedly raise serious questions over the outlook for the rest of the EU, the principal currency of which is of course the Euro. Part of sterling’s strength is the large amount of confidence in the UK’s financial institutions and government. The transparency in our systems and strength of rule of law plus the independence of the Bank of England means for all the problems, the pound is a haven. Many pension funds, hedge funds and banks use the UK as a safe place to do business. The Euro by contrast is stronger but is held by many Asian investors and could be more susceptible to weakness in the event of major uncertainty.

If you need to buy Euros with pounds the next few weeks and month are going to be very tricky as we begin to understand just how the UK and the EU’s relationship will develop. Even a ‘Remain’ vote will see a turn in the UK’s relations with Europe and this will have consequences for both the pound and the Euro.

For more information on what to expect in the future on Euro exchange rates please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Best time to buy Euros with Pounds in 7 weeks!

If you need to buy Euros with pounds we currently have the best rates since the beginning of March on offer thanks to some uncertainty over Eurozone economic policy and a much stronger pound. After two months of the Leave camp appearing to have swung sentiment, the Remain camp is now firmly in the running with a raft of arguments to support their cause. This all goes to show how unpredictable the markets can be and how sensible it is to make plans in advance as things can change very quickly. It seemed only very recently that the rates were going to drop below 1.20 and now we are looking at a rise to 1.30!

Euro rates up to the Referendum 

Between now and June I think there could be some further big unexpected swings on sterling to euro exchange rates and at the very extreme would predict swings of between 1.20 and 1.35. This is taking into account the very worst and best expectations of sterling performance. Such big movements will have a big impact on financial markets and the amount of currency you receive. Whilst it might be tempting to look on this as a great opportunity and of course it is and could be, you should also look at the downside too. Assuming a Remain vote and hanging on for the rate to go above 1.31 for your European house purchase is great but if it is a Leave vote and rates drop to 1.15 will you be able to afford the house?

Two key orders in such a market are the Stop Loss order which guarantees you won’t get a worse rate if rates start to plummet. So for example you might set a Stop Loss at 1.22 buying Euros currently. A Limit is the other which guarantees you a higher price if rates rise above a certain level. So a popular GBPEUR Limit order to buy Euros is 1.30.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros at a better rate than is currently achievable you really should be plans on how you will achieve this. Understanding the market and all of your options in advance gives you the best possible chance to trade at a better level. If you wish to discuss your situation please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. There is no cost or charge for my services, any introductory information is provided completely free of charge and at no obligation so you have nothing to lose from getting in touch.

Euro rates after the Referendum 

Of course how Euro rates perform post the Referendum will come down to the outcome of the Referendum. Most assessments focus on sterling weakness on a Leave vote which might see GBPEUR slip to 1.20 and below. I wouldn’t rule out a continued slide on the pound with some forecasts predicting sub 1.20 even in the teens. A Remain vote should see the pound rise with GBPEUR above 1.30 with a possible move over the days and weeks to 1.40 not out of the question.

My experience on exchange rates tells me to expect and highlight the unexpected. It might be that the Euro is actually weakened from a Leave vote. The Euro has relied on lots of overseas investment in recent years which might easily be unwound as we have seen in recent years on the back of the Greek crisis. Could the result of a Leave vote trigger a constitutional crisis in the EU which would expose other wounds? The problems with Greece are far from resolved and it might be that a Leave vote is actually very damaging for the Eurozone and the Euro.

Conversely a Remain vote might not be all sunshine and smiles for the GBPEUR rate. The UK economy has been confirmed to be growing at a very slow pace this year because of the uncertainty over the Referendum. Businesses and private clients are refraining from big decisions such as hiring new workers and investing in their business or property until after the Referendum. This has dented economic activity and is putting further pressure on the economy. A Remain vote is also an implicit agreement to carry on with the (amended) EU relationship which may not be in the UK’s best interests. Perhaps the Leave camp are right and the EU is no longer fit for purpose and the UK being entwined will suffer longer term.

As you can see there are lots of ifs, buts and maybes. I can speak from experience looking after both private client and business transfers for the last 8 years that big events such as this move markets. The Scottish Referendum and the last two General Elections all saw big swings in the weeks leading up to the events. This Referendum is much more important and none of the predictions above could be completely ruled out.

For more information on how to protect yourself and plan a currency purchase in this clearly volatile period please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Jonathan Watson is Associate Director at one of the UK’s leading foreign exchange brokers and offers a wealth of knowledge on the currency markets having worked as a currency broker for over 8 years – offering his expertise to both individual and corporate clients on a daily basis. Jonathan’s comments have recently featured in The Telegraph and he has also appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum.

 

Will the Euro recover or fall now?

The recent Eurozone economic data was actually better than expected with Inflation rising to 0.0% which is much better than previous deflationary figure of -0.1%. Does this means that the single currency is out of the woods? Well for the time being the pressure is absolutely off the European Central Bank who had been the target of the markets owing to poor economic data and worries over deflation. The ECB has made some major moves to weaken the Euro which have actually ended up strengthening the Euro conversely! The idea was that extra Quantitative Easing and a reduction in interest rates would increase economic activity and boost Inflation, the economic measures were also designed to weaken the Euro which would also help boost economic growth and increase inflation.

Expectations now focus on the ECB Meeting next week which I would suspect will provide Euro sellers with better news, if you are looking to buy or sell the pound with Euros then Wednesday is also the release of UK Unemployment data which should provide some movement as this is a very important release. If you need to buy or sell the Euro then making some plans in advance of any decision is in my opinion the best way forward.

For the latest news and information on securing the best exchange rates please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

IMF Warns of Global Economic Impact should a “Brexit” Occur (Daniel Johnson)

The International Monetary Fund gave a stark warning to those in favour of the UK exiting the EU. It was stated if there was a “Brexit” it “could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships.” Current polls suggest the leave camp is now in front at 52% which is very worrying for the UK economy. HSBC have recently predicted that GBP/EUR could hit parity if there is a UK exit. If you are a Euro buyer the current Interbank level of 1.25 now seems very attractive.

George Osbourne also had his say, stating “For the first time we are seeing the direct impact on our economy of the risks of leaving the EU. If the British economy is hit by the mere risk of leaving the EU, can you imagine the hit to people’s income and jobs if we did actually leave?”

The IMF has acut the UK economic growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.9%, the weakest forecasts for several years and one of the biggest cuts to any leading global economy.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to help. I will happily provide an individual trading strategy. Please do get in touch if you would like a free, no obligation quote. We can often beat Bank’s rates by as much as 5%. You can e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

Will GBPEUR continue to fall next week? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Its now clear that the ‘Brexit’ has started to weigh down on the Pound as GBPEUR exchange rates have dropped over 6 cents since David Cameron announced the UK would hold a referendum in regards to EU membership.

This trend is set to continue up until June 23rd therefore if you have euros to buy trading sooner rather than later may be wise, where as if you are selling Euros to buy Sterling holding off for an extra cent or two could pay off.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros this year (especially before June 23rd), the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.

 

 

GBPEUR forecast (Dayle Littlejohn)

If you are buying or selling Euros this year or especially before June 23rd I would seriously be considering your position.

The UK’s referendum is now in full swing and therefore we expect GBPEUR exchange rates to continue to slide up until June 23rd. My prediction is for GBPEUR to be fluctuating between 1.18 and 1.22 come June 23rd.

If the UK were to leave the EU many of the leading banks such as Lloyds and HSBC have predicted rates will fall to parity however I believe 1.10 is more likely. Where as if the UK were to remain a part of the European Union I predict rates will increase back towards 1.30.

Many of my clients want to buy Euros now however do not have all of their funds available, we can still help. A forward contract allows clients to lock into todays exchange rates however they pay later for it. All we require is a small deposit.

Data releases to look out for this week are:

  • German Inflation numbers Wednesday morning
  • UK GDP numbers Thursday morning
  • German Unemployment rate Thursday morning

The currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales within the Eurozone. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property in Europe this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk. The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you, below is a list of what I require: your name, brief description of requirement (buying a house in France), amount in Euros, budgets, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.

PLEASE NOTE DUE TO THE MARKETS BEING CLOSED FOR THE BANK HOLIDAY I AM NOT IN THE OFFICE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE A GREAT EASTER BREAK AND I LOOK FORWARD TO SPEAKING WITH YOU THEN.

GBP/EUR rates set to fall this week (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates have begun the early morning trading session with relative stability.

Most of the correspondance I answered over the weekend were enquiries as to where GBP/EUR rates of exchange are expected to go following the roller coaster of movements on Thursday and Friday last week.

The consensus among analysts is that GBP/EUR will likely be seeing central levels closer to the 1.26 mark which was almost hit on Thursday last week, and there are a few reasons why:

  1. The recovery on Friday for GBP/EUR was not due to any positive news for the Pound, nor any negative news to make the Euro cheaper to buy. In fact no relative economic or political information came out on Friday which would have any bearing on the currency markets. So in this instance, the gradual rise of buying Euro rates on Friday following the near 3 cent drop of Thursday, can be seen a standard currency market correction following any severe slide. Thursday’s movement made the temptation for companies and individuals with a short-term Euro selling requirement to move too high. The mass Euro sell-off which ensued explains the gradual gains gifted back to Euro buyers on the currency markets as Friday continued. This suggests these are thus short-term gains rather than a new trend being established.
  2. Wednesday is expected to be a key feature for Euro weakness. Strangely, events in the US are set to be the culprit. USD/EUR is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, so when either the USD or the Euro weakens, the general rule of thumb will see the other gain signficant strength. USD weakness is expected on Wednesday, as they announce a delay in their second interest rate hike which has been hinted at over the past two weeks. In this instance, a huge amount of capital should flow into the Euro and make the single currency more expensive to buy through increased demand.

However, as the start of the article suggests, this morning has started with relative stability. I believe only on Tuesday will we see markets begin to price in the falls on GBP/EUR buying rates expected on Wednesday. So opportunities may still present themselves today.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua in order to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere. Should we speak this morning, or even in the middle of the afternoon, we can discuss a plan of action to make sure opportunities are seized rather than missed.

These current buying levels can also be fixed in place for up to a year if you are worried about the upcoming referendum making your exchange more expensive. jjp@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR rates dip ahead of UK growth figures tomorrow (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR buying rates took a further dip today following lower than expected retail sales figures for the UK economy.

Falling by over a Cent between the high and the low of the day, before recovering later, many Euro buyers were worried that the gains they had made recently were being reversed rapidly.

UK Retail sales were expected to finally show an improvement following months of stagnation, particularly with underwhelming sales during the holiday season. Instead of 2.6% growth in February, they grew only 0.1%.

Markets reacted severely to the news because one of the big events of the month, UK growth figures, which are to be released tomorrow, was suddenly seen with a greater degree of anxiety. 

Many Euro buyers have been looking towards Thursday as a potentially important date to aim for the with expectation of improvements in buying rates. It’s something this website has covered extensively in recent days.

The European Central Bank are expected to announce further financial intervention in the economy. But with the Eurozone’s own positive growth figures released this morning this intervention is expected to be downscaled.

The crystal ball question is now whether the gains on Thursday will outweight the losses expected tomorrow? With this question in the head of many Euro buyers, Thursday no longer seems like the opportunity it once was.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk and I will respond personally to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

Should you wish to secure these recent gains ahead of any expected losses tomorrow then please note that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere. These current buying levels can also be fixed to avoid rates of exchange to avoid expensive movements affecting your transfer.

Euro sellers can also do the same, and I can explain how to make the most of the expected movements in your favour over the coming days. 01494 787 478.