Tag Archives: the best deal on euros against the pound

The euro will probably remain on the weaker side

The Euro is most certainly on the back foot falling to a year low against the USD finally breaking back below the magic 1.30 level. I expect too against the pound the Euro will remain weak although the uncertainty presented to the market by the Scottish Referendum is a clear driver of sterling weakness, presenting what I believe is an excellent opportunity to sell euros for GBP.

The market can quickly turn and it is impossible to say exactly what will happen in the future. However I fell it reasonable to suggest the Euro will remain at an elevated level against sterling (the best levels since June) for the duration of the run up to the vote. It would seem likely to expect that after the vote (and assuming a ‘No’ vote as is still expected to be the main outcome) the pound will rise against the euro and focus will shift back to possible QE in the Eurozone.

In short if you are selling Euros for GBP moving sooner may be wise, if buying euros and feeling brace you may wish to wait until after the vote. We offer a specialist proactive service to guide clients through their currency exchanges, please feel free to contact me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information.

Will the euro weaken?

With no clear improvement in the economic conditions of the Eurozone despite a raft of measures designed to stave off deflation, we could now be looking at some further Euro weakness this week as investors lose faith in the current approach by the European Central Bank. Mario Draghi has kept significant credibility in his work as President of the ECB but investors will need to start seeing some serious improvements before they really feel enough is being done to stem major problems in the future.

Let us not write off the ECB and the Euro too swiftly however. The Euro is second only to the US dollar in terms of its international status as a safe haven, many companies and countries outside the Eurozone issue and purchase debt in Euros and businesses globally will use the Euro as an anchor to add another platform of stability alongside the ‘strength’ of the US Dollar.

Fears some years ago of the Euro collapsing seem like a distant memory and such a scenario is now highly unlikely. The prospect of major Euro weakness in the future if the current problems are not resolved is however something to be concerned about. Prices could start falling and this would have a major effect on the lacklustre growth seen across the Eurozone. Extensive legislation to promote green energy and meet targets has left many Eurozone business uncompetitive against their global markets and this is preventing booms in Industry and commerce.

This Thursday is the latest meeting between the ECB and he will give a Press Conference afterwards to provide insight and commentary into just how he and the council views the recent falls in Inflation. Friday at 10.00 am we have the latest Eurozone GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data which will be very useful in determining whether those comments or actions were justified…

The Euro has lost over 10 cents against sterling and close to 9 cents against the USD this year. If you need to make a transfer soon being aware of all of your options and the forecast could save you money. For more information and practical solutions from currency specialists please email me Jonny on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Euro continues to decline heaping misery on Euro sellers. (Ben Amrany)

The Euro has taken a hit after last Friday the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi hinted at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming that broad-based asset purchases (QE) have become more likely and necessary for the euro zone.

This sent the Euro down to the lowest level against the USD in 11 months and also caused it to weaken by a cent against the pound as the Euro block is in a completely different place economically wise to that of the UK and the States.

While in the UK and US  the central bank is considering hiking interest rates, in Europe they are monetary easing, which is what the UK and US have already halted.  The European economy is a good couple of years behind the UK & US so I expect we will continue to see a weak Euro for the foreseeable future until interest rates seem like they could be hiked. A long road ahead is in store for Europe!!

Tomorrow Key unemployment data out of Germany could heap further pressure on the single currency so if you are looking at selling the Euro you may wish to act sooner to minimize any further losses.

If you enjoy reading our site and would like more information on the currency exchange service we offer please do feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk  I will explain the service we can provide as well as all the options available to you.

 

 

What can we expect for the Euro in the future?

The Euro appears to be on course for future losses which may manifest in the next month or so owing to continued pressure on the Eurozone economy to show some improvements in their economic outlook. Some months ago we were in a similair position and Marios Draghi announced a range of measures to ease liquidity in the Eurozone – that is making money more cheaply available to try and stimulate the economy. Unemployment is still a big problem in the Eurozone and boosting growth will help to combat this problem.

The cutting of their base interest rate has so far failed to ignite the economy and stave off the deflationary pressures in the Eurozone. Last month’s data has so far all been rather worrying and I am of the opinion anyone holding out expecting larger moves back in their favour in the future should beware of the risk involved. If you look at the historic charts the GBPEUR rate used to be much higher in the past flirting with levels of 1.50 – 1.60 for a period of time. Therefore the more favourable recent moves which we have seen could be viewed as an anomaly never to return as the economic recovery in the UK gathers pace.

All in all a strong pound and rising Eurozone concerns seems to indicate to me a deterioration in the current levels for those selling euros for GBP. If you need to make an exchange now or in the future please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will the Euro weaken further soon?

There is a very strong chance the Euro will weaken further in the coming weeks and perhaps months if the current economic conditions deteriorate. Important measures of the Eurozone economy as a whole and the component countries have all showed a clear downturn of late. Eurozone Inflation has fallen lower and growth has stalled as the single bloc stumbles from crisis to crisis hurting confidence not only in the Eurozone but also globally. If  you would like to learn more about the forecast for your particular transaction we would be very interested to hear from you, please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

The Euro is slowly drifting into dangerous territory and anyone who needs to buy or sell euros will more than likely see the impacts of a deterioration or improvement in this situation. For more information at no cost or obligation please email me jmw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to help you.

 

Euro declines continue (Ben Amrany)

The Euro has weakened over the course of the day against most of the majors on the back of the poor economic sentiment survey which came out of Germany this morning. It has really hindered the single currency and sent GBP/EUR back up towards 1.2584 from the low of the day of 1.2531. Investor morale in Germany is now at its lowest in over one and a half years which is a a further sign that the euro zone recovery is faltering and may reap further pressure on the Euro.

If you are looking at buying or selling the single currency against the pound then tomorrow there is a host of economic releases which will more than likely have an impact on the rates going forward until the end of the week.

At 7 am it all kicks off with all the eagerly awaited inflation data out from Germany which I feel will cause the Euro to weaken as inflation is continuing to fall and a rise above expectation will be needed for anyone looking at selling Euros. The same data is out for France and Spain.

Then in the UK we have the unemployment data followed by the Quarterly inflation report and a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England. The Unemployment data will be key for market movement as any drop in this figure will surely mean further calls for interest rates to rise sooner leading to more sterling strengthen.

I still feel that there is more scope for the Euro to continue to weaken than recover its losses. If you are selling the single currency the sooner you trade I believe the  more you will achieve and you will probably look back in a years time and think thank god I traded when I did.

If you do not have full funds available please remember you can always forward buy your currency by lodging a small deposit now and settling the balance at an agreed date in the future. If you would like more information on this contract or anything else to do with our service then please feel free to email myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk 

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

The Euro gains in anticipation of the interest rate decision tomorrow. (Ben Amrany)

The single currency (EUR) has had a day of slight gains against the pound and the US Dollar today as negative data from the UK & US has weighed on the pound and the USD.

Tomorrow should be a very interesting day for the Euro with a much anticipated interest rate decision to be announced at lunch time from Europe.

The European Central Bank is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged tomorrow, but President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi will likely reiterate to markets that policy makers remain ready to undertake more monetary easing if necessary.

A couple of months ago the ECB cut the base rate of interest and announced unprecedented monetary stimulus which we have not seen out of the Euro block. This was due to a heavy fall in the rate of their inflation and the hope is to get people spending to raise the rate of inflation. All this contributed to the Euro falling to the lowest level against the pound for around two years and recently an 8 month low against the USD.

Eurozone inflation fell in July to 0.4% YoY, the lowest level since October 2009, and is well below the ECB’s target rate of 2%. The ECB have suggested in the past that a rate below 1% poses a risk of deflation.

Even though this has occurred we believe that ECB policy-makers are expected to stay on hold as they continue to monitor the impact of monetary accommodation measures announced in June.

The range bound recently has been as high against GBP as 1.2699 and a low of 1.2520 which is a fair spread in the space of a week or so. This is fairly volatile and I would expect there to be more chance of the Euro to continue to weaken than gain in the medium to long term. This should be a concern if you are selling Euros and I would be exchanging your funds sooner rather than later to minimsie any future losses. If you do not have full funds available then you can sell your Euros on a forward contract. 

If you are looking at making an exchange then I would recommend speaking with myself Ben Amrany and I can explain all the options available to you in trying to time your exchange and help you achieve a better rate of exchange than the banks.

If you would like to benefit from our award winning rates then email myself at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will contact you to explain the mechanics of buying your currency through us and the options available to you.

Thank you for reading.

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Big day looms for GBP/EUR rates

The Euro has today recovered some of its losses against the pound with GBP/EUR back down at 1.2560. The trend is still Euro positive so if you have Euros to sell our recommendations are to look at your exchange in the near future as the rates could continue to go against you if buying sterling.

Tomorrow could be a volatile day for GBP/EUR as their is a host of data out from the UK most importantly the interest rate decision out at midday. There has been a lot of talk about when interest rates will rise in the UK. This being the main contributing factor to the pound rising so significantly of late. We are not expecting a change in rates tomorrow but if the unexpected happens the pound could rise. We also have all of the trade balance figures for the UK which could be a bigger market mover than the interest rate. A healthy number will surely be GBP positive.

In Europe there is the ECB monthly report. They will discuss the current economic situation in Europe and as things have not been going to well a dip in the value of the Euro is expected. his will be good for Germany as the lower the Euro goes the better it is for their exports.

If you are buying Euros I would be exchanging your funds on spikes in the market to keep capitalising on the favourable rates. If you require buying or selling the Euro then you may find out more about our service by emailing myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk 

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

The Euro is being contained for now, when will it break into some fresh territory?

A dramatic few weeks on the Euro have seen the exchange rate at some of the worst levels against sterling since 2012. If you need to sell Euros the knee jerk reaction to the fact is probably to hold on but this could turn out to be a very bad decision if the exchange rate continues to move against you. The Euro has not really broken out of these ranges lately and we could easily see a return of fortune but I would not expect it would last long. I feel the best strategy for anyone buying or selling Euros is to sell on the dips in your favour, our specialist service is designed to help you maximise the exchange rate for any transfers that you need to make.

Next week we have the Eurozone Interest Rate decision and European Central Bank (ECB) Press Conference, this could easily affect the  current Euro exchange rate but these kind of levels should not be easily dismissed. It is a 20 month buying euros which is making overseas property and doing business with foreign customers much more attractive.

For the very best rates of exchange and information specific to your exchange please contact me jmw@currencies.co.uk

Euro Rate Forecast

To readers who have euros to sell and wish to buy sterling I would not hang around too long. The recent dips in your favour today and yesterday should definitely in my opinion be viewed as a good time to sell. The longer term forecast clearly appears to favour the pound over most currencies and whilst exchange rates are not as good as they were some months and years ago, there is a very strong likelihood it will get worse.

If you need to sell euros for the pound soon or in the future it is probably a good idea to consider a forward fix on the rates to help further reduce the uncertainty. The longer term forecast for the pound is that the UK will raise interest rates well ahead of the rest of the US and the ECB which should result in much higher rates in the future. The big questions of course is when exactly this will happen, some have forecast the move this year for the UK, others early 2015.

For more information on the exact price we could offer to you why not make an enquiry direct with me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

How will the Euro react on Thursday?

At the last ECB meeting Mario Draghi saved any new news until the press conference. At which time the market dropped from 1.2165 to 1,21 before soaring over 1.22… Such movements are not too common on the currency markets and can present some rare opportunities for savvy buyers and sellers.

The expectation is currently the ECB will cut their base interest rate and also look at some form of liquidity measure for the bank. LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) is a mechanism that essentially lends money to banks at a favourable rate and term to allow them  maneuverability in conducting their activities. It is not quite Quantitative Easing but is not a million miles away.

Usually you would expect this to trigger significant weakness but as the event has already been priced into the value of the currency this is unlikely. Assuming the ECB actually goes ahead with these measures we should expect little movement on the rates. What would be more interesting is if they talk of future activity in the Press Conference which could serve to weaken the Euro. If they don’t follow through with any action the Euro may strengthen but it could also weaken as investors lose confidence in Mario Draghi and his approach to this siutation.

If you need to make a foreign exchange payment I have many years experience managing client exposure to the currency markets and can offer assistance with timings and the best way to move money internationally.

Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk

Next week will be busy on GBPEUR, have you made any preparations?

The big driver I feel on the Euro could be the shift in sentiment as it becomes apparent the Federal Reserve in the US may raise interest rates ahead of the Eurozone. This shift in sentiment is I feel already being represented on EURUSD and the rate cut may only serve to underline this trend.

There is perhaps some scope for slightly better Euro selling rates should sterling come unstuck but on the whole I think if you are selling euros moving sooner or selling on the dips is best. The market has largely priced in a small interest rate cut next week for the Eurozone. I don’t personally see much scope for Euro weakness as this is all largely being factored into the rate.

It is by no means set in stone the ECB will cut interest rates; there are other avenues of action available. One of the key features of ECB policy has been worries the Euro is too strong. Since the last ECB meeting it has weakened some 2 cents against sterling and 4 cents against the dollar. Mario Draghi has a great way with words, his comments effectively underpinning Euro strength since the summer of 2012.

 

If you wish to get more information or trade please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk