Will the German economy head towards a recession?
In today’s look at when to buy Euros, we’ll see how it is a relatively quiet week for Eurozone economic data, although we could see some movement on Thursday. Germany is the engine room of the Eurozone, and we are due to see their latest export data as well as trade balance figures for August.
German manufacturing data has shown a worrying slowdown recently, which could be attributed to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the USA’s and China’s trade war. If we witness a further fall, this could mean Germany is headed toward a recession, which could impact the Euro’s value.
German inflation data due out this week
At the end of this week, we will see German inflation data due for September. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates at last month’s meeting and, if inflation shows another fall, this could potentially provide justification for further monetary policy changes.
Yesterday, Germany’s August factory figures showed a contraction, and this is the third month in a row we have seen a decline.
Euro predictions: Brexit continues to effect GBP/EUR
Brexit continues to be one of the key factors affecting GBP/EUR. Yesterday, a Scottish judge rejected UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s attempt to proceed with a ‘no deal’. In order for Mr. Johnson to abide by the law, he will be forced to ask for a Brexit extension, unless a deal has been agreed by 19th October.
It now seems the chances of the UK leaving in a ‘no deal’ scenario on 31st October are slim. It seems that an extension is now the likely outcome. The extension may lead to a slight strengthening of the Pound, but Sterling could well remain fragile until we have clarity on Brexit.
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