Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

EUR Forecast – Investors Concerned Over EU/US Relations but Brexit Concerns Continue to Dominate Headlines (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has seen its value dip slightly during Tuesday’s trading, against both the Pound and US Dollar.

GBP/EUR rates hit 1.1241 earlier, having been trading around 1.12 during early morning trading. EUR/USD rates also dropped back below 1.17 but in truth both pairs have been fairly range bound throughout Tuesday’s trading.

Investors focus has seemingly been directed on the UK economy of late, with any issue inside the Eurozone seemingly going under the radar, as the furore over Brexit continues. UK Prime Minister and her own government are at loggerheads, with the PM losing control of her party following a decision earlier this month regarding the UK’s Brexit strategy.

The uncertainty this has brought about, has put pressure on the Pound and inadvertently boosted perception of the EUR as a result.

The single currency has made inroads against its Sterling counterpart for much of the past week, with this positive move also boosted by a spike in Business Confidence figures for June, which unexpectedly came out above market prediction. The expectation had been for these figures to fall, with recent data indicating that the Eurozone economy had “come off the boil”.

Whilst it has been widely accepted that their economy has slowed during the first half of 2018, the European Central Bank (ECB) have continued to remain upbeat in their outlook and are convinced that the economy will be able to stand up, once they do finally end their current monetary policy programme.

ECB President Mario Draghi has been steadfast in his commitment to tying this up by the end of 2018 but as of yet, has still not given the markets a firm assurance that this will happen. If he were to extend the ECB’s current bond buying scheme into 2018, then the markets are likely to view this as a negative for the Eurozone economy and the single currency could see its value drop as a result.

Those clients holding Euro should also be wary about the current trade standoff between the EUR & US. President Trumps has introduced trade tariffs on certain Eurzoone import, which int run could cause a slowdown in demand for these goods from US Manufacturers. This in turn is likely to put pressure on the Eurozone economy in the long-term, a scenario which is unlikely to help propel the EUR value upwards

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

Buying Euro rates slump with new Russia revelations (Joshua Privett)

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A combination of factors has finally, after 4 weeks, caused buying Euro rates to flutter out of its recent mooring at 1.129-1.1430, but the decider was new information about potential collaboration between the Trump campaign and Russian officials.

Why are we addressing events in America? Anything that impacts the US Dollar has a ripple effect on global currency exchange rates. This is more exaggerated when the Euro is discussed because USD/EUR is the most heavily traded currency pairing in the world, so movements in one currency tends to have the opposite effect in the other as capital is moved global into, or away from, the other currency.

There was concerning news out in the US today. This could be the veritable ‘smoking gun’ which ties Donald Trump’s campaign efforts with similar efforts from the Russian Government to get him elected.

An email chain confirmed that Donald Trump Jr, alongside two other key officials from then-candidate Trump’s inner circle met with a Russian official in an attempt to gain information to undermine Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

Collusion is the key word here, given that there was knowledge here that they knew they were meeting with a Russian official, despite previous denials to the contrary.

Reports of ‘lawyering up’ are rife, and, surprisingly, now President Trump has yet to deny anything on Twitter.

Alongside some lacklustre comments from Bank of England members about a potential rate hike in the UK economy, there is a stronger argument emerging that EUR/GBP will be gaining ground in the near term. Euro sellers rejoice, but buyers may be wise to consider buying their currency now.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro based currency requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you significant sums of money on a prospective transfer.

 

Joshua Privett

Pound Euro exchange rates close to a 5 month high (Tom Holian)

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The Pound has hit its best level to buy Euros since late last year after Prime Minister Theresa May called for a surprise snap election. This saw the Pound make gains vs the all major currencies including the single currency providing the best rate to buy Euros in months.

Over the next fortnight the second round of the French election is due to take place and at the moment it is a two horse race between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.

The likelihood is that Macron will win however owing to what happened during 2016 with the Brexit vote and Trump winning in the US it would be foolish to think that Macron is guaranteed.

If Marine Le Pen does win this could be hugely problematic for the Euro as she has already spoken of her intentions to leave the European Union and replace the single currency with the French Franc.

Macron on the other hand is very pro-EU and is currently favourite according to the various opinion polls currently being circulated. Therefore, if he gets in this could provide some stability for the Euro against the Pound.

The UK election is also due in the next 6 weeks so there is a lot happening politically at the moment in the UK and on the continent so expect to see a lot of volatility for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates during this period.

If you have a currency transfer to make in the next month and do not have the full amount of the money available then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

This typically involves putting down 10% as a deposit up front and the balance payable by the maturity date of the contract.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros then feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Tom Holian
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003, longer than some of today’s currency brokerages have been in business, Tom draws on his considerable experience of the currency markets when writing his Euro exchange rate forecasts.