Euro Rate Forecast

Currency experts forecast on the Euro

EUR Forecast – Turkey’s Economic Crisis Could Have Serious Ramifications for the Euro (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has seen mixed fortunes of late, with some impressive gains against Sterling matched with equally worrying losses against the USD.

A poor run of economic data over the past few weeks has been a cause of concern for investors but for the time being at least, has done little to impact its value against GBP.

Investor confidence in the UK economy and ultimately the Pound is clearly minimal at present and as such, this is helping to support the single currency around the current levels. GBP/EUR rates have fallen below 1.12, with the Euro once again trading close to a 9 month high.

This move has come despite some worrying trade balance figures in some of the Eurozone’s key economies. With Frances trade deficit growing and Germany posting some uninspiring export numbers this month, there is clearly some issues under the surface, which in turn could have a detrimental effect on Eurozone growth and ultimately the value of the single currency.

US President Donald Trump has few friends inside the Eurozone ever since his decision to levee export tariffs on key Eurozone exports to the US. These restrictions have put a strain on the Eurozone economy, whilst also causing global trade to slow. This in turn has caused investors to shy away from the Euro, which has seen its value decrease against most of the major currencies, apart from Sterling as I mentioned previously.

There is also now a growing concern regarding the growing financial crisis in turkey. Many of the larger banks businesses inside key Eurozone economies have a huge amount of exposure to Turkey. With their currency the TRY in freefall and a deepening economic crisis, the EUR could certainly see its value also decrease as a result

All of these factors lead me to the conclusion that any clients holding the EUR should be looking to take advantage of the current levels against the Pound, whilst protecting any further losses against the USD.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

A small improvement for GBPEUR exchagne rates

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UK Markit services data released this morning at 9.30am, which captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment showed a significant improvement from 54 to  to 55.1. Tomorrow morning Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, is set to deliver a speech in Newcastle and as Markit services and GDP have both risen recently, the press will question whether an interest rate hike will materialise in August. At present the market is now pricing in a 73% chance and this is the reason why GBPEUR has increased throughout the day.

For euro buyers, it’s great news that the UK economy has improved in recent weeks, however on going Brexit negotiations are still a concern for clients that are looking to buy euros. This Friday the full conservative cabinet will meet at Chequers, the Prime Ministers countryside retreat to discuss the Brexit strategy moving forward. Some economists believe that the PM has summoned her full cabinet as she plans a super soft Brexit and the news will be received better than if she only summoned her war cabinet.

The problem I have is that key politicians like David Davis and Boris Johnson could try and sabotage the plan and put further pressure on the PMs position and ultimately sterling. For clients that are buying euros, I would keep a close eye on Fridays events as the unfold as at any point I expect the pound could experience substantial losses.

If you are buying or selling euros this week, month or year and I have not covered the currency pair you are trading, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Dayle Littlejohn

EUR Forecast – EUR Loses Value Despite Concerns Over Brexit (Matthew Vassallo)

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GBP/EUR rates have dipped again during Friday’s trading, with the single currency finding plenty of support around 1.14.

The EUR climbed to 1.1338 at it’s high, assisted by worse than expected UK Construction data released this morning.

Whilst the Pound has made positive inroads of late, it seems that the recent spikes are unsustainable.

Brexit talks are entering a key phase and this is likely to put pressure on the EUR and as such this will help to support the EUR value around the current levels.

With the global markets seemingly improving , there is also an argument to say that investors risk appetite will improve alongside it. Usually this means than they will move funds from the safer haven currencies such as the USD & CHF, into more risky and potentially higher yielding currencies.

This in turn could boost the single currencies value further. against the USD

Whilst the currency markets are extremely difficult to dissect, particularly in times of uncertainty, I am not convinced that the recent positive trend for Sterling will continue. On-going concerns surrounding Brexit and its outcome are likely to handicap any major advances and with the Eurozone economy continuing to exceed expectation, the current outlook still seems to favour the EUR over the Pound.

The concerns around Brexit were laid bare by a leaked Government report earlier this week, which indicated that the UK will be worse off after Brexit. The report covered all three Brexit scenarios, including a free trade agreement, access to the single market, or the worst case scenario of no deal being reached at all.

The Government were quick to react and said the findings were only a preliminary assessment but the news is hardly likely to inspire confidence amongst investors.

Therefore despite the Pounds positive run  further pressure over the coming days and weeks is a distinct possibility, as  Brexit talks starting to dominate the headlines once more.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfers to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

EUR Forecast – Will the Euro Remain the currency of choice for Investors? (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has started this year in the same vein as it ended the last, finding plenty of support from investors.

Whilst it has dipped slightly from its 6 year high against Sterling, it has still found support around 1.13, which remains an extremely attractive sell price for those clients holding the single currency.

It has performed best against the USD of late, rising to a three year and some of the best levels we’ve seen since the EUR was first introduced as a currency.

Whilst rates remain at such attractive levels, it may be prudent to remove the risk of what may lie ahead. The markets are likely to be driven by developments with Brexit negotiations and fluctuations with interest rates & monetary policy, which will likely also have a direct impact on exchange rates.

For this reason I would be looking to take advantage of the current sell prices against both GBP and the USD.

Whilst the Eurozone economic prosperity has exceeded expectation at almost every turn, the EUR has at least in part been propelled to the current levels by a complete lack of investor confidence in the UK economy and ultimately Sterling.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reshuffled her cabinet in the hope of bringing some stability and in turn some confidence back to the markets. However, investors have not reacted particularly positively to this development and whilst the Pound has found a foothold of late, a sustainable increase against the EUR looks unlikely under current market conditions.

With so much market focus and emphasis on the UK’s separation from EU neighbours, any positive strides forward in this sphere is likely to benefit Sterling immensely. Brexit has been a weight around its neck for the past 18 months but personally, I feel any resolution in the short-term is highly unlikely.

It is far more conseivable that negotiation’s will continue to stagnate, as they did during the early stages, and this in turn is likely to handicap any sustainable increases for the Pound.

Therefore I would be tempted to remove any risk from the market and lock in any short-term currency exchange before Brexit negotiations resume.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

EUR Forecast – Will the EUR Remain the Currency of Choice for Investors? (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR performed above expectation during 2017 and as we look ahead, those clients holding the single currency will be questioning whether this trend is likely to continue over the coming months?

Whilst the Eurozone economic output was impressive for the most part last year, the Euro’s rise against Sterling was facilitated by a complete lack of investor confidence in the UK economy. This put a huge amount of pressure on the Pound, which in turn boosted the value of the EUR to levels it may of not otherwise reached.

Yes, the EUR also had an impressive year against the USD but considering how low it had been trading against the greenback previous to this, there was always likely to be some sort of recovery.

This is not to take away from the single currencies impressive performance, which has been the currency of choice for many investors over recent times.

The point being that any performance of such strength, whether that be politically or in the sporting sense, become a very hard act to follow.

So is the EUR destined for failure?

I have no doubt that the EUR will continue to perform admirably against its major currency counterparts in the short-term. However, I am not convinced we will see it gain enough support to return to the 8 year highs we saw only recently against Sterling, or continue its current aggressive upward curve against the USD.

The US economy is performing well, despite the impending “tell-all” book which could destabilise the Trump regime and with Brexit talks starting to progress, this could help support Sterling around its current levels.

Therefore those clients with a EUR currency position may wish to consider their position and remove any risk or uncertainty by locking in now, rather than gambling on future events and an increasingly unpredictable market.

For those clients looking to trade their EUR today, Services PMI data released this morning came out slightly better than predicted at 56.6. This has done little to boost the single currencies value, with the Pound and USD finding support during early morning trading.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

German Coalition Talks Progress – EUR Exchange Rate Forecast (Matthew Vassallo)

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There was some better news for German Chancellor Angela Merkel over the weekend, with reports suggesting that a potential coalition with the Social Democrat party were back on.

Their previous partnership looked dead in the water following a serious breakdown in talks only last week, with growing fears that Germany may be forced into another general election as no party was going to be able to take power.

Investors reacted to this news by pulling their funds away from the EUR, causing it to weaken against both Sterling and the USD. Despite talks reopening again it seems the markets remain sceptical about how they will progress, with the EUR once again losing some ground against its Sterling counterpart during Monday’s trading.

GBP/EUR rates continue to trade just below, with the EUR finding plenty of support around this level during afternoon trading. Whilst it has slipped from the recent 8 year highs, the current levels still very attractive for those clients looking to sell the single currency.

Whilst the UK economy remains under pressure, reports over the past few days have indicated that progress on Brexit talks has been made. It seems as though UK Prime Minister Theresa May has agreed, at least in principal, to pay a sizeable sum to the EU following our separation. Whilst the official will not be released should they come to an agreement, it has been touted that it could be up to 42bn.

Whilst this may well have a negative knock on effect for the UK economy in subsequent years, it may well prove to be a catalyst for the current talks to progress. This in turn could start to change investors mind-sets and the Pound may benefit as a result.

As such, I would be very tempted to take advantage of the current levels if I had EUR to sell over the coming months, as it may be that the EUR has hit its peak.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

BoE Raise Interest Rates but EUR Finds Support Against Sterling (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has made significant gains against Sterling this afternoon, gaining over 2 cents at the high.

This improvement came despite the Bank of England (BoE) raising interest rates for the first time in over 10 years.

Today’s decision was pre-empted with much anticipation by investors, due to its potential impact on the markets.

However, my opinion has always been that the downside risk for those clients holding the Pound, certainly outweighed any the potential upside returns.

The EUR responded positively to the central bank’s decision to hike rates by 0.25%, which was in contrast to what the markets may have expected. GBP/EUR rates fell from 1.14 to 1.1183 and despite the Pound finding some support around 1.12, the EUR ended European trading hours in the ascendancy.

The reason for the EUR improvements is likely to be a combination of factors. The markets has clearly factored in a small hike by the BoE but it was the subsequent minutes which may have been prominent in Sterling’s downfall.

BoE governor Mark Carney was fairly downbeat and portrayed warning over any further rate rises whilst Brexit negotiations were on-going.

This combines with the negative perception surrounding the UK at present and the Pound was always likely to remain under pressure in the short-term.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Matt Vassallo

EUR Benefiting from the Pounds Demise – Is it Time to Sell EUR? (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has made significant inroads of late, as the Pound’s value continues to diminish.

The markets remain extremely sceptical regarding the upcoming Brexit negotiations, with the negative focus seemingly shifting further towards the UK’s side and away from the EU.

Let’s not forget that the EU are losing an integral member of the single member state, with the ramifications of this as yet, remaining unclear.

The current market continues to surprise investors, with political & economic uncertainty in the UK dragging the Pound’s value down.

The EUR has been one of the main benefactors of this demise but in my opinion, it has inadvertently boosted to the current levels (GBP/EUR trading below 1.14), due to the unrest surrounding the UK at present, rather than an overriding confidence in the Eurozone and ultimately the single currency.

This is why I have been advocating to all my clients that they look at this as a short-term opportunist market and react accordingly.

Today could play a key role in the on-going sage, with the Queens Speech scheduled for 11.30. In it she will outline the government’s plan for Brexit but with current Prime Minister Theresa May failing to win a majority at the recent elections, how this will play out over the coming weeks will depend on any deal agreed with the controversial DUP party.

Moving away from the political sphere and it is Brexit negotiations that are likely to be the driving force behind market sentiment for months to come. The UK have already backtracked during the opening days of negotiations, with the EU seemingly already carrying the upper hand.

Whilst this is likely to handicap any major advances for Sterling, EU sellers would be wise to take advantage of the current window of opportunity and remove any on-going risk from this most unstable of markets.

Now is the time to contact a personal currency broker and here I can help guide you through this turbulent market. I assist my clients with the timing of their currency transfers, to help you maximise any market value.

We can offer award winning exchange rates & service, for all our clients currency requirements.

Please feel free to contact me if you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our rates to those of your current provider.

I am available on 0044 1494 787 478 between 08.30-18.00 and just ask one for the team for Matthew. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Matt Vassallo

EUR Value Boosted Following Hung Parliament – Where Next for EUR Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has made significant strides against Sterling, since the unexpected UK general election result last week.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May was left stunned, as her Conservative party failed to gain the majority required to take control of Westminster and more importantly Brexit negotiations.

Investor confidence in the UK was already extremely fragile and the vote left the UK public in a state of limbo, as fears over Brexit negotiations and the future of the UK economy in doubt. The markets reacted accordingly with Sterling losing value immediately, with the EUR being one of the main benefactors as a result of this downturn.

The EUR has gained almost four cents over the past month, with GBP/EUR rates trading just above 1.13 at today’s high. EUR sellers have once again been presented with an opportunity due to a lack of confidence in the Pound and in my opinion, should be taking advantage as a result.

With so much uncertainty surrounding the future of both economies, in particular how each will fair during the Brexit separation process, are you willing to gamble on another major upturn for the single currency?

To put it in monetary terms any client selling 100,000 EUR/GBP position will have gained almost £2000 at the high, from the same trade just prior to the UK elections. With an increase in value not attributed to an overriding investor confidence in the Eurozone region, the key question now is whether the single currency is likely to make further significant strides against the Pound?

Whilst current market forecasts are proving increasingly difficult to dissect, history tells us that the EUR rarely trades at the current levels for long. It is likely that the Conservatives will form an alliance sooner rather than later and any political stability could help boost Sterling’s value. This is particularly poignant when you consider the boost it received today following positive inflation figures and with so much uncertainty regarding the political & economic outlook inside the Eurozone, now could be the perfect time to lock in any short to medium EUR currency transfers.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Matt Vassallo

EUR Strengthens as Brexit Concerns Rise (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has found support against Sterling this week, as fears grow regarding the UK’s upcoming Brexit and what deal will be in place following the triggering of Article 50.

Despite a fairly upbeat budget on Wednesday by new Chancellor Philip Hammond the EUR continued its run against the Pound, hitting a high of 1.1441 this morning.

This move has provided an excellent opportunity for EUR sellers, who may have been concerned that the Pound was gaining a foothold in the market following a positive move for Sterling only a couple of weeks ago. Despite this improvement I am still wary about assuming the current trend will continue, as the EUR itself is suffering against almost every other major currency, in particular the USD.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has stuck stringently by her deadline of this month to trigger the bill but this was thrown into some doubt following recent reports that the House of Lords made their first major amendment.

EUR/USD rates are trading around 1.06, some of the lowest levels in over 10 years. This proves that investor confidence in the single market is low and as such any positive developments regarding Brexit could boost Sterling and the EUR recent gains could be quickly eliminated.

With key elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands and support for far right parties in each of these countries, it is clear that all is not well inside in the EU. As with the UK’s unexpected decision to leave the EU has proved, along with the appointment of President Trump, the expected result does not always come to fruition and it is clear that some people are searching for change.

Any uprising across Europe is likely to sap investor confidence in the single currency further and the current rates against the Pound in particular, could look extremely attractive in months to come.

This view is even more poignant when you consider recent developments in Greece, who once again are coming under the spotlight due to fears they simply cannot service their ever growing debt repayments and as such they may have no choice but to leave the EU further down the line, news which would likely send shockwaves through the market.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make, then we can help you navigate this turbulent market by keeping clients up to speed with all the latest developments regarding Brexit and beyond.

If you would like us to monitor the market for you ahead of a currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Matt Vassallo

EUR Strengthens as Brexit Fears Grow (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR has found support against Sterling this week, as fears grow regarding the UK’s upcoming Brexit and what deal will be in place following the triggering of Article 50.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has stuck stringently by her deadline of this month to trigger the bill but this has now been thrown into doubt, following reports this week that the House of Lords have made their first major amendment.

They have gone against the House of Commons and voted to guarantee EU citizen’s rights, news which immediately caused investors to panic and pull their funds away from Sterling. With further changes likely over the coming days, we could now see this passed back to the House of Commons to ratify the amendments and a game of political ping pong could entail.

This has inadvertently boosted the EUR value but what is key in my opinion is that this was due to a lack of confidence in the UK economy and its future growth, rather than an overriding positive feeling regarding the Eurozone.

I would be wary about gambling on a major spike for the single currency, as when you look at current EUR/USD rates it is obvious investor confidence in the single market is low and as such any positive developments regarding Brexit could boost Sterling and this week’s gains could be quickly eliminated.

With key elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands and support for far right parties in each of these countries, it is clear that all is not well inside in the EU. As the UK’s unexpected decision to leave the EU has proved, along with the appointment of President Trump the expected result does not always come to fruition and it is clear that some people are searching for change.

Any uprising across Europe is likely to sap investor confidence in the single currency further and the current rates against the Pound in particular could look extremely attractive in months to come.

This view is even more poignant when you consider recent developments in Greece, who once again are coming under the spotlight due to fears they simply cannot service their ever growing debt repayments and as such they may have no choice but to leave the EU further down the line, news which would likely send shockwaves through the market.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make, then we can help you navigate this turbulent market by keeping clients up to speed with all the latest developments regarding Brexit and beyond.

If you would like us to monitor the market for you ahead of a currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Matt Vassallo

EUR Weakens as Political Tensions Rise – Where Next for EUR Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

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The EUR is coming under increasing pressure as economic & political tensions build across the region.

The EUR value has fallen against both GBP & USD for much of this week but the question I’m being asked by clients is whether this negative trend is likely to continue?

My feeling for some time, has been that clients holding the single currency should be looking to protect the value against the USD and take advantage of the highs we’ve seen against Sterling in recent months. The EUR moved to near three year highs against the Pound but this was more likely due to the on-going uncertainty surround the UK’s Brexit and the negative effect this has had on our economy. This in turn has handicapped any major advances for the Pound, which has inadvertently helped to support the EUR, despite concerns about the future of the EU and the political landscape over the coming months.

With key elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands and support for far right parties in each of these countries, it is clear that all is not well inside in the EU. As the UK’s unexpected decision to leave the EU has proved, along with the appointment of President Trump the expected result does not always come to fruition and it is clear that some people are searching for change.

Any uprising across Europe is likely to sap investor confidence in the single currency further and the current rates against the Pound in particular could look extremely attractive in months to come.

This view is even more poignant when you consider developments in Greece this week, who once again are coming under the spotlight due to fears they simply cannot service their ever growing debt repayments and as such they may have no choice but to leave the EU further down the line, news which would likely send shock-waves through the market.

With so many negative variables, along with economic instability and uncertainty across the region, I would simply not be prepared to gamble on a major spike for the EUR against the Pound.

Despite the fact that the triggering of Article 50 may continue to negatively affect the UK, I believe the problems facing the Eurozone are greater and as such I would be looking to protect any EUR positions sooner rather than later.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Matt Vassallo