Tag Archives: us dollar
Sterling Loses Support against Euro and US Dollar (Tom Holian)
Sterling continues to fall against both the Euro and US Dollar as well as many other major currencies as worries continue to mount that the UK economy is heading for problems. Sterling Euro rates have come close to a 15 month low and falling to a fresh 7 month low against the US Dollar. Martin Weale from the Monetary Policy Committee has hinted that Sterling may need to weaken further to help aid the recovery for the UK economy in order to avoid a triple dip recession.
There are strong rumours that many speculators are trying to short Sterling which may also be having an impact behind the scenes and also that S&P the credit ratings agency may downgrade the UK tonight from its current triple-A credit rating. Last week Sterling had its biggest weekly drop since summer 2012 and poor retail sales figures for January has only helped to compound the current problems. reading between the lines it seems quite apparent that the Bank of England are attempting with their rhetoric to weaken Sterling in order to help the UK grow with its export market. Indeed, when GBPEUR exchange rates got close to parity this helped the UK economy get back on its feet.
It is difficult to see when this trend of Sterling weakness will stop so if you are planning a currency transfer and want to maximise how many Euros you can buy with Sterling please feel free to contact me for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
Euro remains strong against Pound and US Dollar
Anyone looking to buy Euros with Sterling is likely to get very little change in the coming weeks with the Bank of England appearing determined to talk down the value of Sterling. Following comments made by Martin Weale a senior member of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) that the pound may need to weaken further to help make the UK exports cheaper to help economic growth, the pound is moving back closer to 18 month lows seen earlier this month. For me this policy is likely to continue from the Bank of England as priority for the MPC and Government will continue to focus on avoiding the ‘triple dip’ recession. Should the UK see negative growth in the first quarter of 2013 then the UK is officially back in recession and this is something everyone would like to avoid.
I for one am hopeful we will avoid this and the Pound could receive a welcome boost as a result. Official figures from Q1 will not get released until Aprils and for this reason we are unlikely, in my opinion, to see the Pound gain any momentum. For Euro buyers it is a little concerning how strong the Euro has remained even with the poor GDP figures released last week. For the next 6 weeks I can see the Euro remaining strong with GBP/EUR testing below the 1.15 territory, and possibly below. For EUR/USD I would expect less dramatic movement and can see levels remaining range bound between 1.32/34 for the foreseeable future.
Current market conditions are proving to be extremely volatile. To make sure you maximise your exchnage put yourself in the best position to take advantage of a spike as this can a make a significant difference to the cost of your money exchange. Bu using a specialist foreign exchange broker we can keep you regularly updated with the market trends, utilise rate alerts and stop/loss and Limit orders to contact you if a target rate becomes available. Should you wish to discuss the service we provide in more detail then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me (Michael Vaughan) at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Euro exchange rates fight back following yesterday’s losses
This afternoon Euro exchange rates regained all of the lost ground and more so from yesterday’s trading, pushing back towards 1.15 against the poound and 1.36 versus the US dollar – this came as news filtered through the markets that the European economy seems to be recovering but the gap between its two biggest members is widening. This was according to a survey onthat showed business optimism in the bloc was at an eight-month high.
Markit’s Eurozone Composite PMI, based on business activity across thousands of companies, and a good gauge of economic growth, rose in January to a 10-month high of 48.6 from 47.2 in December – an improvement on the preliminary reading of 48.2. This pushed the Euro down from the day high of 1.1690 to the day close at 1.1525 – this made a difference of some €3,300 on a £200k money transfer in a matter of minutes.
Currently this market is proving to be extremely volatile. It is currently not uncommon to see the market swing anywhere between 1-2 cents each day making it extremely difficult to forecast the next market move. For this reason it is becoming increasingly more important for clients to keep in regular contact with their broker. We are here to keep our clients up to date with market trends and have a number of tools to help safeguard and guarantee a particular rate of exchange for delivery at a pre-agreed maturity date. Should you wish to discuss the current market and how this may affect your individual requirement then please do not hesitate to contact me (Mike) at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Euro reaches 14 month high against GBP and US dollar. Has the Euro reached its peak?
Euro exchange rate have continued their recent assault on the currency market bringing levels against the Pound and US dollar to 14 month highs. Will this continue?
To me it is all a little surprising how far the Euro has moved, sure if you look at the fundamentals behind the UK and our European counterparts, yes the data has been poor from the UK but surely we are still in a better position than Europe? One could argue that Mervyn King (head of the Bank of England) its getting his way as he has been open in calling for a weaker pound to improve the UK’s exports, he is also notorious for talking down the UK’s chances of short term recovery whereas Mr Draghi (his counterpart at the European Central Bank) is often far more bullish when it comes to European finances. For me this is somewhat of a facade and I for one feel this pair is due a correction heading back towards the 1.20 territory. Should you be selling Euros, for this reason, and whilst levels are not far from a 14 month high, it may well be worth considering your options – this may include the use of a forward contract allowing you to guarantee your position even if you do not have full availability of your funds.
As for EUR/USD I think this too will see a correction short term moving back towards 1.33. The dollar then may well come under further pressure when the US debt ceiling deadline draws near come April.
If you would like updates on the market, register your interest by emailing me with your particular currency requirements (contact details, currency pair, volume and time frames). I would be happy to run through my current forecasts and to provide you with a quote for your upcoming exchange. I can be reached at mgv@currencies.co.uk
What data might affect the Euro in the coming days? GBP/EUR and EUR/USD forecast
The first few trading days of the New Year have proved every bit as volatile as much of 2012 following the short term agreement of the US Fiscal Cliff debacle, the resulting moves appear to have been driven by an increase in investor confidence with global stock markets rallying and many of the so called ‘riskier’ currencies (AUD,NZD) benefiting from an increase in demand due to their higher yields. There also been a heavy drive in favour of the USD with EUR/USD rallying towards 1.30 moving nearly 2% in the past couple of days. This is a trend I think is likely to continue and I would expect to see EUR/USD fall below 1.30 and move towards 1.28. Anyone selling dollars may well get more from the market in the coming weeks.
GBP/EUR forecast
Sterling exchange rates had been struggling against the single currency in the run up to the Christmas period a trend that I feel may well continue into the first quarter of 2013. Many Euro buyers are getting a little down hearted about the current trends, however I would still suggest the current levels represent a good buy. 2012 averages for GBP/EUR sit at 1.225, and with the market currently sitting at 1.234 prices surely aren’t too bad? Those waiting for a spike back towards 1.24/25 are looking for levels that have been few and far between in 2012 and levels that may take a little while to re-appear. My personal view is that should we hear any hint of further QE in the coming months (a real possibility and something that I still feel is likely in Q1) then this should keep pressure on the pound and I feel a move towards 1.21 more likely than 1.24.
Unlike the US the first week of the New Year for the UK and Euro zone has been relatively light data wise however next week will be very busy with UK and Euro zone interest rate decisions on Thursday and Euro zone retails sales figures and unemployment data on Tuesday – also watch out for UK manufacturing figures on Friday the 11th January.
Should you wish to discuss the current market trends in more detail then please do not hesitate to contact me on 01494 787478. As a specialist currency broker we have a number of contracts available allowing clients to fix and guarantee their rates in advance of availability of their funds. This can be particularly useful for clients looking to have a degree of certainty with their position and to avoid any nasty unwanted negative market movement. Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like to discuss the market and the service we provide in more detail then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Euro rates steady against the pound but down against the US dollar
Euro exchange rates have remained relatively stable against the pound today but have fallen over 0.5% against the US dollar today as traders and investors still eagerly await the outcome from the US ‘Fiscal Cliff’ – will they come to an agreement before the 31st? In my opinion they will but what is this likely to do to exchange rates? In theory you would expect it to certainly benefit the dollar but this may not be the case. What is really driving the markets still in my view is global confidence and risk appetite, should the agreement go through this is likely to increase risk appetite and with the US dollar still the currency of choice as far as a ‘safe haven’ is concerned, then an increase in confidence may well cause a sell off from dollars to the riskier assets of the AUD, NZD, ZAR and to a degree the Euro. This could in fact cause an increase in demand for the Euro and hence an increase in value. Anyone looking to buy GBP or USD’s with Euros may well see some great opportunities in the short term.
Should you have any thoughts on this blog or would like a more detailed forecast then please do not hesitate to contact me (Michael Vaughan) on 01494 787478. As a specialist foreign exchange broker I would be happy to give my thoughts on the current market conditions to help you make an informed decision with regards to your individual trade. I can also happily source you a commercial rate of exchange to maximise your position and undercut any quote you may have been given elsewhere. To get more information with regards to the service then email me at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Euro exchange Rates at a 1 month high. Get the best deal for your Euros.
Euro exchange rates have moved to a 1 month high against the pound in my opinion created a good opportunity for anyone selling Euros. GBP/EUR rates have now fallen 1.5% since the first week of November and a similar trend has been seen against the US dollar moving 2.1% in the same period. For me the opportunities on EUR/USD are possibly more apparent than that of GBP/EUR as I feel negotiations in Washington to avoid the ‘fiscal cliff’ are likely to bring support to the USD longer term and a move back towards 1.27. More immediately investors will look to Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund to unfreeze the second bailout package for Greece, but they first need to agree if some of the official loans to Athens might eventually be forgiven to cut Greek debt. Of course there is a real chance an agreement cannot be made and this may put pressure back on the Euro, however if a deal can be negotiated then short term the positive movements for the Euro could well continue.
Anyone with an interest in the Euro should keep an eye on European retail sales figures on Wednesday – these are expected to show further contraction from -10.9% to -11.5% and is likely to have a negative effect on the Euro. Also later this week we have European unemployment data on Thursday, this is expected to show an improvement and this could reverse any losses following the retail sales figures from the previous day.
As an overview I would expect a relatively stable week for the Euro unless an agreement can be made between Euro zone finance ministers, I would expect GBP/EUR to remain between 1.23/24 and EUR/USD between 1.29/1.30 but to meet heavy resistance at the 1.30 mark. Should you have an upcoming Euro transfer to arrange and you would like to discuss current market trends then please contact me (Mike Vaughan) on 01494 787478 or email me at mgv@currencies.co.uk
UK GDP figures tomorrow will give a big clue as to whether further QE seen in the UK
Euro rates fell to a one week low against the pound in expectation of positive GDP data from the UK tomorrow at 09:30. Figures are forecast to show that the UK is officially out of recession posting gains of 0.6% in the previous quarter. Should the figures come out as expected this may cut short expectations of future quantitative easing from the Bank of England at its next meeting in November and we may see an initial spike in the pounds favour, however I believe figures need to be much greater than the 0.6% forecast for the Bank to decide against QE altogether. Personally I still feel we will see QE in November and the pound is likely to remain under pressure – I would expect a range of 122-1.24 in the run up to Christmas.
EUR/USD
Euro exchange rates have also posted losses against the US dollar falling below the 1.30 mark. Figures from Markit PMI posted their weakest figures in over 3 years. Also manufacturing figures released by HSBC showed a slowdown in China. This may have caused some concerns amongst global investors and a drive towards safer assets – ie a move from Euro’s to USDs and hence the trend today. This may just be short term and I still see the Euro testing the 1.31 territory soon.
To discuss my views and your thoughts on the current market conditions please contact me either by email a mgv@currencies.co.uk or by calling 01494 787478. Having worked in the currency markets for over 6 years I have assisted numerous clients with their currency transactions, ranging from property completions, monthly mortgage payments and corporate transfers a like. As one of the UK’s longest running independent brokers we have access to highly competitive commercial rates of exchange that our clients take advantage of on a daily basis. Similarly these multiple sources helps keep us ahead of many of our competitors as we actively seek to get our clients the best available market
prices.
Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and would like more information on the service we provide as for Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk and I will gladly assist you.
Euro rates at near 1.23 against the pound and 1.31 against the dollar. What next for the Euro?
Euro exchange rates gained pace overnight breaching the 1.23 mark against the pound for the first time since the beginning of June. This to me represents a good opportunity for Euro sellers as I personally believe the market has priced in expectations for further quantitative easing in the UK and I feel GBP/EUR range will struggle to breach the 1.22 mark – I would expect to see rates back towards 1.25 by the year end. As for EUR/USD, I too feel the current prices represent an opportunity as levels have only reached 1.31 on one previous occasion in the past 5 months.
My general feeling for the Euro is that should Spain request a bailout, which I believe they will, then I feel this may well lead some further short term support for the Euro as it will bring much needed confidence to the Euro zone. Longer term I believe this market confidence is unsustainable and believe it will only be a matter of time before problems in Europe resurface and ultimately pressure will be placed back on the Euro. I would expect to see EUR/USD moving towards 1.25 and GBP/EUR reaching back towards 1.27/28 in the first quarter of 2013.
As a regular writer on this website and a number of others including www.poundsterlingforecast.com, www.australiandollarforecast.com and www.poundeuroexchange.comI simply aim to help individuals make the most of their currency purchase. By staying in close contact with your broker it enables you to take advantage of market spikes which could save you thousands on the exchange. I have worked for one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokers for over 6 years and would be happy to pass my market knowledge onto you. To discuss the service in full and to run through my opinions on the current trading conditions please contact 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Eurozone Recession Close and how it may affect Sterling Euro exchange rates
According to a survey in Europe activity among firms in the Eurozone has seen its sharpest decline since June 2009. The survey published by Markit Flash showed PMI fell to 45.9 last month from 46.3 in August. Anything below 50 represents contraction so this is a real sign that there is a marked slowdown in Europe. As the continent spent most of August on holiday the effect has continued through to this month and with Christmas not too far in the future we could see things getting worse for the single currency. Whilst many countries all slowed there was a clear sign that Germany’s rate of decline was very quick compared to the other nations. Unemployment increased for the ninth month running and the figures published in France showed a contraction to 44.1 the worst since April 2009.
If these data releases continue I would not be surprised to see the Euro weaken over the next few weeks as the only fightback we have seen are the comments from Mario Draghi and the recent vote in Germany which saw the single currency improve by 3% since its recent highs of 1.2860. Across the pond in the US growth in the manufacturing industry has remained okay and the figure was at 51.5 showing growth in the US which is good new for the global markets as if the world leader is growing it helps others. This could also see a strengthening of the US Dollar and a weakening of the Euro as investors return to the US Dollar and bypassing the Euro. Unemployment benefits also dropped marginally and I think the economic news in America could continue to come out positively in the run up to the US elections in November.
For further information as to how to save money on currency transfer please do not hesitate to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk or feel free to follow our sister website www.australiandollarforecast.com for up to date information on the progress of the Australian Dollar.
Euro rates continue to show strength against the Pound and US dollar. Euro exchange rate forecast.
Euro exchange rates have continued their recent resurgence breaking 1.31 territory against the US dollar and falling below 1.24 against the pound. Will this trend continue? Personally I think yes in the short term however I am still a believer that conditions in Europe are still so poor that this will ultimately have a negative affect on the Euro as we head towards Christmas and I would expect to see GBP/EUR back towards 1.26/27 and EUR/USD back towards 1.25. However anyone with a more immediate requirement, particularly those selling Euros could do well to take advantage of the current spike. The moves have been quite significant with the Euro posting gains of 3.3% against sterling (this is an increase of just over £5k for a transfer of €200k) and a move of 6.5% against the USD (a difference of $16,200 on a €200k sell) in less than 1 month – this must represent a good move if you are selling? Should wish to take advantage or would like to run through the various contracts we can offer to maximise your exchange then please contact Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Data affecting the Euro this week
Tomorrow morning at 10:00 BST we have German and European economic sentiment figures. These are released by ZEW a well respected economic think tank. Forecasted to show an improvement month on month and this could help the Euros recent run. For those with an interest in EUR/USD we have 2 members of the Federal Reserve speaking tomorrow and one on Wednesday, keep an eye on their market sentiment as this may also help or hinder the dollar.
Those looking at the GBP/EUR pairing watch out for the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday at 09:30. This will give insight to future market policy from the Bank of England, any hint towards future QE and the pound is likley to fall, likewise a move away from this and the pound may spike. Finally on Thursday we have European Consumer Confidence, again expecting to show a small increase and I would see Euro strength as a result.
My predictions this week would see GBP/EUR settling towards 1.23 and EUR/USD moving towards 1.32 as the market is likely to continue is positive stance following last week’s constitutional agreement in Germany to agree with teh European bail out fund, however longer term I dont think his improved market confidence can last.
As a specialist currency broker at currencies.co.uk my aim is to help my clients achieve competitive commercial exchange rates. Through nearly seven years of market knowledge my aim is to help private and corporate clients maximise their exchange by keeping them up to date with market trends and data that may affect each individual trade. To discuss the service we offer in more detail and to run through the various contracts we can offer please email me at mgv@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787478 and ask for Mike.
