Tag Archives: when to buy

EURO sellers delight as UK data misses targets

Euro sellers find themselves at the moment with a short term opportunity, some light relief as generally there has been an onslaught of losses recently. UK manufacturing and productivity data yesterday missed expectation and gave you guys an opportunity. As mentioned I think this will probably only last the day as tomorrow UK data returns and again is expected to return to the normal way of positive and Pound gains as a result.

Here we help our clients by timing trades plus giving them the knowledge to make an educated decision. Plus with award winning exchange rates available you can be sure that you will save money compared to your Banks.  Most financial publications publish the inter-bank trading level which is currently around 1.2550. This is the trading levels of the central banks and not offered to mere mortals like you and I. When you go to the bank for a price you will see the quotation they provide will be far from this which adds to your costs.  We here are much closer to that level and hence you see a saving. Historically over the last 10 years of trading independent comparisons have shown the savings here to be between 2%-4% compared to the banks. So generally thousands!

Contact the author STEVE EAKINS for more information – his direct email address is hse@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR update and forecast – GBPEUR 1.20 – When to buy Euros – When to sell Euros – STEVE EAKINS

Sterling Euro rates have been fairly flat this week with only a small change over the last 3 trading sessions.  Only a movement of 0.5 cent has been seen which is a far difference from the 3 cents seen over the previous 3 trading sessions last week.  This shows both how much of a surprise the data was last week and also confirms that we now enter the quitter period of the month. This is when there is less data coming from the market and it is instead driven by the risk appetite of traders and political commentary.  The main talking points for the remainder of the month is speculation around when the US will start “tapering” their QE program and whether the Europeans will pro-actively look at changing economic policy further to help create growth.

Earlier today we also had Production Price Index (PPI) for Germany and the Bank of England (BOE) Minutes. PPI for Germany was down creating euro weakness and the BOE minutes was a none event.  As the bank opened up about their forecasts on growth and changes to Interest Rates at last week’s Quarterly Inflation Report they had nothing to add, meaning the markets have not changed on the news.  We now sit within a cent of the highest price seen since January making the levels still very attractive for Euro buyers, well above the year average of 1.1650.

My personal view for GBPEUR rates this next 10 days, until the end of the month is negative.  I think the trend will generally fall and I cannot see any events on the horizon that could result in GBPEUR rates breaching the magical 1.20 barrier.  This is also a pattern that we have seen on a number of occasions this year already.  As a result Euro buyers I think should take advantage of these highs and Euro sellers should maybe hold their nerve for a better price.

If you would like any more information or guidance about your currency situation whether it includes the Pound or any other majors, updates on our forecasts or live prices please contact the author – Steve Eakins – via telephone on the number above or email at hse@currencies.co.uk

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The next 48 hours for GBPEUR

Over the next 48 hours there are a few reports that could provide the week high when buying Euros with sterling. We have data from both the Bank of England showing the minutes from the interest rate decision nearly 2 weeks ago and the UK Retail Figures. 

Regular readers will know that interest rates change the market a great deal and speculation of change can make for a very volatile currency market. In the UK’s case the Bank of England meeting minutes is one of the largest catalyst for a change in the forecast by investors and in turn has created month highs and lows in the past. This is because it shows the split of the vote by the nine monetary policy committee that make the decision on change. Last month it showed a 6-3 split and the markets are not expecting a change. If there was however it would make investors assume a change is more or less likely and therefore the market will price this in quickly. This is released at 9:30 tomorrow morning.

Retail figures in the UK are also key as it is involved with around 60% of the GDP for the pound. This means it gives a good indication as to the health of the economy and can move the value of sterling.  Markets are expecting one of the highest figures this month as April had a lot more shopping days than usual due to Bank Holidays and the Royal Wedding.  This is released on Thursday at 9:30.

It all adds up to potentially the best time to buy Euros with sterling or the worst for the reverse. It could quite easily move the markets adding thousands to a transfer so I personally would be considering this if I was transferring.  For more information of the current forecast contact us using the application for on this page.

Sterling forecast 2011

Sterling Exchange rates this year have moved a lot with swings over 16% against the euro and 14% against the US dollar. This highlights the importance of timing transfers as even over the last 2 months an additional USD 15,080 or EURO 15,140 would have be achieved on a £200,000 transfer if you bought at the peak rather than the low.

Next year I think there are a number of large stories that could shape exchange rates.

Firstly the introduction of budget cuts in January across the UK. This ranges from the VAT rise to fuel cost and efficiency target on every area of government. Many are expecting a large increase in unemployment and hence consumer confidence, all key to the outlook of sterling.

Secondly sterling has a vast amount of exposure to the euro zone debt crises so if any other state was to fall and need support that additional money out of the economy is not going to help.

Third we have the issues the Bank of England has with the inflation levels in the UK. Normally this is counted by raising interest rates however this could cause problems with the housing market, and unemployment levels further.

Finally we have the coalition government. Over the last few weeks the government has again come under pressure and could theoretically add political uncertainty which generally weakens the currency in question. Add the above points and how the cracking government handles what’s being called broken Britain and it makes next year very uncertain.

If you are looking or planning to send money abroad next year you also have to look at the currency that you are buying, the other side of the coin and each have their own problems. The US is having major issues with unemplyment, the euro has its debt crises, but most of the other majors have natural resources that continue to be in demand so are gaining making them more expensive to buy. If you would like more information about a particular currency pair then feel free to contact us.