GDP Published Today But All Euro Eyes And Ears On Tomorrow’s ECB Announcement (Colm Gilhooly

Whilst inflation data yesterday was underwhelming to say the least, we do have Services PMI for Europe today and more importantly the latest GDP figures for the single currency block.  The Euro did claw back some ground yesterday with better jobs figures, but these are still way too high, so it began to slip in later trending and I suspect could come under a lot of pressure this morning in the run up to the data.  However the ECB announcement is likely to be a watershed for Euro rates in the near future.

Low inflation has encouraged many speculators to price in the prospect of intervention by the ECB tomorrow causing a lot of Euro weakness in the last few weeks, however I don’t think the full effect of any action (whether it be a rate cut or some more unusual bond scheme) has been fully priced in so whatever way they decide to go I think we could get big swings in Euro exchange rates.  To this end the press conference is also likely to be a huge event – last month we soar the Euro surge before plunging dramatically all in the space of 30 minutes so if you are buying or selling Euro I would be prepared to move very quickly depending on the timescales of your exchange- particularly for Euro sellers.

Australian GDP overnight was better than expected helping push the Aussie Dollar up again and in my view anybody moving Euro into AUD should probably expect worse to come for the currency pair.

The Dollar is also making headway against the single currency for similar reasons so EUR USD rates could make a significant break through 1.36 soon whether it be on the back of the ECB news, or on US non farm payroll later in the week.  If you would like to make a currency transfer and would like help with the timing and to get the best exchange rate then feel free to email me Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.