Euro Pound forecast: Tory contest affects currency markets

Pound vs Euro rate Sterling begins the week with some stability

Pound sees slight bounce back against major currencies

In our latest Euro Pound forecast, we’ll see how the Pound has bounced back today against most currencies, notably against the US dollar which has seen a gain of 0.5%, and Pound to Euro of 0.3%. This is welcome news for those looking to purchase currency with the Pound, which has seen a slow decline since early May.

Dominic Raab has now been eliminated from the Conservative Party’s leadership contest. He was the only politician who was happy to leave the EU without a deal in place come October 31st. This shows the lack of appetite for a ‘no deal’ Brexit amongst Conservative MPs voting.

This has likely had a knock-on effect, as the remaining candidates will want to avoid speaking about a ‘no deal’ Brexit to make sure they get the maximum votes. For example, Boris Johnson, the front runner, did not give a cast-iron guarantee that we will leave on October 31st with or without a deal. The more talk and rhetoric from the remaining candidates surrounding avoiding a ‘no deal’ Brexit, this will likely strengthen the Pound.

Is the Euro going up or down against the Pound?

In the recent televised debate, Boris Johnson failed to provide any insights on his preferred Brexit plan of action. This left viewers and business leaders frustrated. Having said that, any brash comments by Mr. Johnson could move the currency markets, as he will likely be the next Prime Minister.

Mr Johnson is an antagonising character, and risks rubbing the EU leaders up the wrong way so much so that an extension to Article 50 could be denied. That would mean the UK would leave without a deal, and the Pound could suffer losses as a result.

One thing is for certain, we will see many twists and turns in the coming days and weeks which will affect the Pound. If you are looking to complete a currency exchange in the near future and would like to learn more on the factors affecting your exchange rate, you can contact me directly here.