Euro rate forecast: Supreme Court ruling due this week

AUDEUR forecast: new monetary policy measures as Oz goes into lock down

In today’s Euro rate forecast, we’ll see how the Pound to Euro exchange rate has slipped back from its recent four-month high, with rates sitting at 1.1330 for the pair.

The UK Supreme Court will make a ruling this week on whether the decision to prorogue Parliament was unlawful. If the British government loses the case, then there are a number of different scenarios that may play out. The decision may come as soon as today, and there is likely to be considerable volatility for Sterling exchange rates, depending on the result.

How the Supreme Court’s ruling could affect the GBP to EUR exchange rate

A decision may come as soon as lunchtime today. The former Conservative Attorney General, Dominic Grieve, who is in favour of Britain remaining in the EU, has stated that, if the Supreme Court rules that Prime Minister Boris Johnson misled the Queen, then that would make his position untenable.

Those with pending requirements, either buying Euros or selling Euros, are likely to see high volatility on the back of these important developments. These could impact the course of Brexit, and you may wish to consider planning around them.

Buy Euros latest: ECB fighting off recession threat

Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) held UK interest rates steady at 0.75%. This is in stark contrast to the European Central Bank’s decision the week prior, after cutting the deposit rate and commencing another round of its asset purchasing scheme, called Quantitative Easing (QE). The ECB is trying to fight of a recession, by pushing up inflation and increasing economic growth by using such measures as QE.

The Bank of England is in cautious mode at present, what with the looming 31st October Brexit deadline, and the UK central bank is waiting to see the outcome, before introducing new policy. A deal on Brexit would likely see the Pound rally higher, and the BoE has mentioned the possible need to raise interest rates in that scenario.

On the other hand, a ‘no deal’ Brexit would likely see the Pound weaken, and the Bank of England has been clear in forecasting this outcome. Last year, the BoE suggested that rates for GBP to EUR could fall below parity, although the latest minutes from the UK central bank were not so alarmist.

For more information on Euro exchange rates and for assistance in making transfers, then please contact me, James Lovick, at jll@currencies.co.uk.