The euro to pound exchange rate has regained most of its lost ground yesterday afternoon when rates fell to more than a 2-week low. Some of the movement came as a result of the positive sentiment experienced by the two chief Brexit negotiators David Frost and Michel Barnier suggesting that movement towards a trade deal had become slightly more likely in yesterday’s talks. Michael Gove stated that negotiations are at a “healthy stage” which could cause some further volatility for the euro to pound exchange rates.
Over the 4 years of Brexit talks, it seemed that a lot of concessions in discussions were found very near to the deadlines before having previously extended. Since there is no possibility to push the goal posts into 2021 this time round, a take it or leave it approach by the EU could potentially cause some movement for the single currency. Historically, getting closer to getting a deal agreed had been more beneficial for sterling than for the euro whereas mentions of no-deal or extensions had been detrimental for the pound.
Further talks are to go ahead today and if today is anything like yesterday, we could see some further movements for the EUR/GBP rates. With the interbank rate at 0.907 today, and a 1 cent range of movement yesterday, there is certainly the potential for good trading opportunities depending on which way the rates move today.
The euro to US dollar exchange rate saw better results yesterday as the currency pairing gained half a cent in yesterday’s trading to the present 1.168 at time of writing. The first round of the campaign trail for the US election will be taking place today where Trump and Biden will go head-to-head to discredit each other and could potentially cause some negativity for the US dollar. Should this occur, we could see levels edge closer to the 1.189 and even 1.19 levels we had seen for an extended period recently.
New Mask Restrictions in Dutch Cities
However, there have been some damaging news events out for the Eurozone recently as Holland announces that its 3 biggest cities – Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague – will impose compulsory mask-wearing restrictions with bars and restaurants to close by a 10pm curfew. It comes as the nation witnesses 3000 new COVID-19 cases daily and could well be set to continue. Should more measures come into effect that are more invasive to the European economies, currency weakness could occur and see the euro fall lower against some of its major counterparts.
The Netherlands isn’t he only country to be struggling though as other EU member states such as France have seen new coronavirus administrations breach 10k in recent days which could really be cause for concern for a potential second lockdown like the UK is considering with its circuit breaker.
Germany will see the harmonized consumer price index today set to remain unchanged at -0.1%. This will give an insight into price stability and reflect how erratic the German economy is at the moment in these uncertain times. Retail sales figures expected unchanged at 4.2% will be accompanied by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech which could provide some currency movement depending on the economic outlook for the bloc.
Most of the data is published at the back end of the week though as Thursday will bring the EU leaders summit which is carried over to the Friday whilst also receiving the Eurozone’s consumer Price Index’s as well. This is anticipated to rise marginally by just 0.1% from 0.4% to 0.5% so may not be expected to bring much in the way of a boost for the euro.
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