The EURGBP exchange rate is trading near the 2021 lows after registering a new low on Wednesday at 8537. Positive revisions for UK GDP were met with lower numbers for Eurozone inflation and German unemployment.
EURGBP has started the morning slightly higher at 0.8515, with manufacturing PMIs coming alongside German retail sales.
Europe Recovery Lagging US in Real-Time Data
Real-time data from Reuters has shown that American business and consumers are jumping to take advantage of the vaccine rollout, while France goes into another lockdown with much of Europe.
The US is still not ready to fully open, but many states have a head start and this is putting the US economy on a strong footing, which will impact the EURUSD rate in coming months. The same trend will also happen in the EUR v GBP as British businesses will be confidently planning and hiring after the big vaccination push.
In the restaurant and retail sectors, diner visits in the US recorded on the OpenTable State of the Industry site, showed that numbers have been stuck since late 2020 at the beginning of the recent lockdown.
In the US, the statistics show weekend spikes as it normally would as the curve moves closer to pre-virus levels. These types of trends will show up across the board in non-essential businesses and they will have vital revenues to start putting to work before Europe is fully open. This head start should guide exchange rates through the year, with the EU suffering.
German Retail and PMIs Lead the Morning Data
Germany’s retail sales will be released this morning with analysts expecting a loss of -6.7%, after a loss of -8.7% in February. The continued lockdowns see the country’s sector in a similar place as the UK and the EU is still struggling with high case numbers, which again, will see the European retail traders falling behind.
Manufacturing PMIs will be released for the UK after a strong performance last month of 55.1 which surprised analysts’ forecasts. Another move higher is expected today to 57.9. Spain, Italy and Germany will also release PMIs this morning so it will be a good comparison of the manufacturing sector for the EUR v GBP traders.
Today’s releases will conclude the economic data for the week and the market will begin to focus on the recovery path again. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will give an update on travel plans on the 5th April, with another update coming for the 12th April from the Global Travel Taskforce. As one analyst put it, “you don’t give bad news twice,” and because politicians like to bask in some glory, Johnson is likely to give the green light for holidays, with the vaccinations in the UK meaning that holidaymakers can safely travel to other countries with higher vaccination rates.
In the EURGBP, sterling will look to build on the recent push to new lows with the 2020 lows near 0.8400 being the target. If you have a currency exchange coming up involving the pound and euro, get in touch using the form below to be kept up to date with the latest market movements.